This week covers experts’ response to a White House OSTP RFI regarding potential changes to Policies for Federal and Institutional Oversight of Life Sciences Dual Use Research of Concern and Potential Pandemic Pathogen Care and Oversight Policy Framework, new publications focused on topics ranging from pandemic influenza and the BW taboo to global nuclear conflict, upcoming events, and professional development opportunities.
Hopkins Center for Health Security Publishes Response to White House Office of Science and Technology Policy RFI on Dual Use Research of Concern and Potential Pandemic Pathogen Care and Oversight Policy Framework
Experts in public health and security recently responded to an OSTP RFI regarding “potential changes to the Policies for Federal and Institutional Oversight of Life Sciences Dual Use Research of Concern (DURC) and Potential Pandemic Pathogen Care and Oversight (P3CO) Policy Framework.” This included several faculty members at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, whose response “…follows the release of findings and proposed recommendations by the National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity (NSABB) earlier this year. The NSABB report included recommendations for governance of research involving enhanced pathogens of pandemic potential (ePPP), an extremely small subset of gain-of-function research that has significant enough risks to warrant oversight.”
According to the authors, “The group’s RFI response supports the NSABB recommendations and emphasizes the importance of protecting humans, animals, plants, and the environment from especially dangerous DURC and ePPP research. “Research activities must be seen in the broader and more significant context of the United States Government’s responsibility to reduce risks of accidental or deliberate pandemics to which a narrow and limited segment of research—ePPP research—may contribute if un- or underregulated,” write the authors.”
Several other experts signed in support of the RFI, including Biodefense Graduate Program Director, Gregory Koblentz.
What We’re Listening To 🎧
GovCast: S6 E29, Protecting the Health Care Ecosystem from Cybersecurity Threats
“The Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) at the Department of Health and Human Services leads the nation’s medical and public health preparedness for all disasters and public health emergencies.”
“After spending more than a decade at the Government Accountability Office, Brian Mazanec is taking on a new challenge as the Deputy Director of the Office of Preparedness at ASPR.”
“In his newly appointed position, Mazanec will use his expertise in cybersecurity and conflict to ensure the health care ecosystem has critical infrastructure protection to combat cyber threats.”
Listen here. Mazanec is an alumnus of the Biodefense PhD Program and a current Schar School adjunct professor.
“The Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks: A Red-Team Approach”
From the RAND Corporation: “The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has far-reaching implications across multiple domains, including its potential to be applied in the development of advanced biological weapons. The speed at which AI technologies are evolving often surpasses the capacity of government regulatory oversight, leading to a potential gap in existing policies and regulations. Previous biological attacks that failed because of a lack of information might succeed in a world in which AI tools have access to all of the information needed to bridge that information gap.”
“The authors of this report look at the emerging issue of identifying and mitigating the risks posed by the misuse of AI—specifically, large language models (LLMs)—in the context of biological attacks. They present preliminary findings of their research and examine future paths for that research as AI and LLMs gain sophistication and speed.”
“The Biological Weapons Taboo”
Michelle Bentley recently authored this piece in War on the Rocks that is based on her recently released book of the same name. She writes in part, “COVID-19 has revitalized the debate on why biological weapons should not be used. International actors have expressed a new interest in the bioweapons threat — one that is focused on preventing and stigmatizing that threat as a priority concern. Biowarfare is on the global political agenda to a greater extent than it has ever been before.”
“This fresh interest has often centered on the biological weapons taboo. The taboo is the claim that bioweapons are so disgusting, immoral, and unacceptable that actors will not use them. The taboo has previously been dismissed as anemic and of little significance to both state and international security. The taboo was even criticized as a “potentially dangerous” way of doing arms control relating to biowarfare.”
“Yet the taboo is currently experiencing something of a second life in the wake of COVID-19. The pandemic has demonstrated the potential destruction of bioviolence in a whole new way. In doing so, the COVID-19 pandemic has strengthened the taboo and underpinned a renewed approach to biowarfare prevention that has the taboo at its core. This new shift in perception has significant implications not only for how we understand what actors think about bioweapons but also how we prohibit these armaments. The taboo is changing bioweapons policy in a major move further away from more traditional methods of arms control.”
“Many Potential Pathways to Future Pandemic Influenza”
Morens, Park, and Taubenberger recently published this piece in Science Translational Medicine: “Although influenza A viruses have caused pandemics for centuries, future pandemics cannot be predicted with our current understanding and resources. Concern about an H5N1 avian influenza pandemic has caused alarm since 1997, but there are many other possible routes to pandemic influenza.”
“Scientists Discuss Prototype Pathogens for Pandemic Preparedness”
From NIAID: “A special Oct. 19 supplement to the Journal of Infectious Diseases contains nine articles intended as a summary of a National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID)-hosted pandemic preparedness workshop that featured scientific experts on viral families of pandemic concern. Sponsored by NIAID, the supplement features articles on 10 viral families with high pandemic potential known to infect people. Concluding the supplement is a commentary from NIAID staff on the “road ahead.”’
“Many of the viruses in these 10 families have no vaccines or treatments licensed or in advanced development for use in people. Rather than facing the enormous task of developing medical countermeasures for individual viruses, one strategy is to use the “prototype pathogen” approach – which was shown to be successful with the rapid development of vaccines during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This approach characterizes “representative” viruses within viral families so that knowledge gained, including medical countermeasures strategies, can be quickly adapted to other viruses in the same family.”
Read more here.
“Examining Risks at the Intersection of AI and Bio”
From CLTR: Artificial intelligence and biotechnology are converging in a way that could catalyse immense progress from areas like personalised medicine to sustainable agriculture—as well as substantial risks. There is a potential for new capabilities that threaten national security, including those that may lower barriers to the misuse of biological agents.
Without achieving a calibrated understanding, threats in AI-Biosecurity risk being overstated or, alternatively, not recognised and therefore underappreciated. In the face of rapid innovation, there is an imperative to monitor, measure, and mitigate these risks.
We’re excited to highlight a new publication by the Centre for Long-Term Resilience analysing the potential risks at the intersection of AI and bio. This report covers:
The role of AI in accelerating the threat of biological weapons
We explore how AI-enabled tools (particularly those with specialised life sciences capabilities) impact individual steps of the biological weapon development process, from malicious intention to a deliberate release event.
Our goal was to make a more specific case for where and how AI-enabled tools may contribute to misuse risk. We believe this is an essential starting point for (i) identifying potential intervention points and (ii) aiding the development and evaluation of different risk mitigation strategies.”
Furthering understanding of AI-enabled biological tools
In this report, we share our approach to subcategorising “AI-enabled biological tools” including: what they are capable of, how mature those capabilities are and what use cases might be at high risk of misuse.
Our goal with this work was to facilitate more precise risk assessments and identify priority capabilities for monitoring. These insights enhance our ability to anticipate concerning capabilities and develop targeted governance mechanisms, without stifling innovation.
“Lab Leak Fights Casts Chill Over Virology Research”
Benjamin Mueller and Sheryl Gay Stolberg discuss how concerns that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a Chinese lab are affecting funding for virology in the United States in this piece for The New York Times. They write in part, “Questions about whether Covid leaked from a Chinese laboratory have cast a chill over American virus research, drying up funding for scientists who collect or alter dangerous pathogens and intensifying a debate over those practices. The pullback has transformed one of the most highly charged fields of medical science. While some believe such experiments could fend off the next pandemic, others worry that they are more likely to start one.”
“At Pennsylvania State University, a proposal to infect ferrets with a mutant bird flu virus passed the federal government’s most rigorous biosafety review only to be rebuffed by the National Institutes of Health. Troy Sutton, the scientist behind the studies, said that health officials referred to the public controversy over the lab leak theory in advising him to pursue different experiments…In Washington, international development officials pulled the plug this summer on a $125 million program to collect animal viruses on several continents after two senior Republican senators demanded that they end the project.”
“Operation Warp Speed: The Untold Story of the COVID-19 Vaccine”
Joe Nocera and Bethany McLean offer an in-depth, casual telling of OWS and “How an unlikely group of scientists, generals, and government officials supercharged the effort to get us back to some kind of normal,” in this piece for Vanity Fair. They write in their conclusion, “By focusing solely on the job at hand and by refusing to get distracted by politics, the Warp Speed team made vaccines available faster than anyone in human history, pulling off the one true triumph of America’s battle against COVID-19—and saving millions of lives. Many things went wrong with America’s response to the pandemic, but Warp Speed still stands as an unambiguous success.”
“Global Effects of Nuclear Conflict: Implications for Nuclear Policymaking, Then and Now”
From NTI: “Forty years ago, findings on the global climatic effects of nuclear war first introduced the prospect of “nuclear winter.” In the decades since, the consequences of nuclear use have remained only incidental to considerations of nuclear policy. This paper explores that history and presents new research and key questions for policymakers to address given today’s increasingly interconnected world. The authors highlight the need for renewed attention to the catastrophic effects of nuclear conflict as a crucial step toward reducing the risk of nuclear use.”
ICYMI: Briefing on Verification of the Biological Weapons Convention
“At the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) Ninth Review Conference in 2022, States Parties to the BWC agreed to establish a new Working Group on the strengthening of the Convention, which will operate during the next intersessional period. The agenda for the Working Group includes discussion on, among other things, compliance and verification.”
“This is the first time in 20 years that verification will be formally discussed within the BWC framework, initiating a new process that opens a window of opportunity for states to advance work around monitoring and compliance.”
“This UNIDIR briefing, the first in a series of virtual events focused on verification, served as a primer for consideration of verification in the context of the BWC.”
Access this event’s recording here.
NEW: Report Launch: The Convergence of Artificial Intelligence and the Life Sciences
“Significant advances in artificial intelligence (AI) offer tremendous benefits for modern bioscience and bioengineering. However, AI-bio capabilities—AI tools and technologies that enable the engineering of living systems—also could be accidentally or deliberately misused to cause significant harm, with the potential to cause a global biological catastrophe.”
“Join NTI | bio for the launch of the new report, “The Convergence of Artificial Intelligence and the Life Sciences: Safeguarding Technology, Rethinking Governance, and Preventing Catastrophe,” which draws on interviews with more than 30 experts in the field and makes recommendations about governance approaches for AI-bio capabilities to reduce biological risks without unduly hindering scientific advances.”
“This event is part of the AI Fringe, and is convened on the margins of the UK AI Safety Summit.”
This event will take place in-person and on YouTube at 3 pm GMT on October 30. Learn more here.
NEW: A New Missile Age in the Indo-Pacific
“The Indo-Pacific is on the cusp of a new missile age. As regional tensions rise, many countries are increasing their inventories of short- to intermediate-range missile systems. This proliferation could intensify already complex security dilemmas, particularly related to North Korea and the Taiwan Strait, and heighten nuclear escalation risks.”
“Geopolitical dynamics, including U.S.-China competition and action-reaction relations between North Korea and South Korea, are driving investments by Indo-Pacific countries in a range of missile capabilities. The U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty in 2019, after years of alleging Russian noncompliance, is also accelerating proliferation. Washington is now pursuing new ground-launched missiles, with a focus on Asia.”
“Join Carnegie for a discussion on the drivers and consequences of the spread of missiles in the Indo-Pacific with Masashi Murano, Ankit Panda, and Jenny Town. Panda will share findings and recommendations from his new Carnegie report, Indo-Pacific Missile Arsenals: Avoiding Spirals and Mitigating Escalation Risks. George Perkovich will moderate.”
This hybrid event will take place on October 31 at 2 pm EST. Register here.
Biological Weapons: The Interconnectivity of Norms
“The bans on chemical and biological weapons (CBW) are central elements of the international disarmament and security architecture. We however need to consider how these regimes can overcome current issues and strengthen themselves for the future. What can be done to ensure the strength of the taboos against chemical and biological weapons is not weakened. In light of this the conference seeks to understand the relevant normative regimes for Chemical and Biological weapons and especially how different norms and levels of norms interact with one another.”
This conference will take place on October 23 and 24 in Gießen, DE. Learn more and register here.
Medical Countermeasures-Expanding Delivery and Increasing Uptake Through Public-Private Partnerships Upcoming Workshop Series
“WORKSHOP SERIES: Medical Countermeasures- Expanding Delivery and Increasing Uptake Through Public-Private Partnerships: A Workshop Series
WHEN: October 3, 12, 17, 26, and November 2, 2023
The National Academies Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Disasters and Emergencies will host a series of virtual public workshops to examine lessons learned and future opportunities for public-private partnerships to facilitate delivery, monitoring, uptake, and utilization of medical countermeasures to the public during a public health emergency.
The workshop will be accessible via webinar. Learn more on the project page.”
Learn more and register here.
The Convergence of AI and the Life Sciences: New Report on Safeguarding Technology, Rethinking Governance, and Preventing Catastrophe
“Join NTI | bio for the launch of the new report, “The Convergence of Artificial Intelligence and the Life Sciences: Safeguarding Technology, Rethinking Governance, and Preventing Catastrophe,” which draws on interviews with more than 30 experts in AI, biotech industry, bioscience research, and biosecurity. The report offers recommendations for governance approaches to safeguard AI-bio capabilities in order to reduce biological risks without unduly hindering scientific advances.”
This event will take place on October 30 at 3 pm GMT. Learn more and register here.
2023 EPA International Decontamination Research and Development Conference-“Advancing Preparedness through Science and Collaboration”
“The clean-up of chemical, biological, or radiological (CBR) contamination incidents and natural disasters is a critical challenge for the United States. Understanding how to characterize and remediate affected areas of environmental contamination and waste is necessary for daily life to return.”
“The Decon Conference is designed to facilitate presentation, discussion, and further collaboration of research and development topics focused on an all-hazards approach to remediate contaminated indoor and outdoor areas, critical infrastructure, water distribution systems, and other environmental areas/materials.”
“This conference is free and open to the public. Content and presentations are geared towards the emergency response community, including local and state emergency managers, homeland security officials, first responder coordinators, private sector industry, risk managers, educators in the field of emergency management, and others.”
This event will take place December 5-7 in Charleston, SC. Learn more and register here.
61st ISODARCO Course: Nuclear Order and International Security after Ukraine
“The war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on global security, reviving nuclear fears, undermining the prospects for arms control, and shattering many of the norms and constraints that were the foundation of European security. ISODARCO 2024 will examine the global nuclear order in light of the Ukraine war, focusing on the states, the policies and the technologies that will shape the future in a much more difficult environment. How will we cope with this more dangerous world?”
This course will take place January 7-14, 2024, at the University of Trento. Learn more and register here.
Registration for GHS 2024 Now Open
Registration is now open for the Global Health Security 2024 conference in Sydney, Australia. This iteration will take place 18-21 June, 2024. The call for abstracts is also still open. “The mission of the Global Health Security conference is to provide a forum where leaders, researchers, policy-makers, and representatives from government, international organisations, civil society, and private industry from around the world can engage with each other, review the latest research and policy innovations, and agree solutions for making the world safer and healthier. To that end, our mission is to help foster a genuinely multidisciplinary community of practice that is committed to working collaboratively to enhance global health security and eliminate disease, irrespective of its origin or source.”
Strategic Learning: Comprehensive Courses on Strategic Dynamics with a Focus on Southern Asia
From the Stimson Center: “The Strategic Learning initiative offers free online courses that aim to sharpen analysts’ understanding of strategic concepts in Southern Asia and beyond. By developing interactive online courses and exclusive video lectures, we make diverse viewpoints from experts around the world accessible for our community of engaged “strategic learners.”’
“Strategic Learning’s latest course, Missile Technologies in Southern Asia, is a 3-hour course that connects technology to strategy by explaining major missile technologies and how they work and by presenting diverse perspectives on their relevance to strategic competition in Southern Asia and globally. It explores key missiles and missile defense systems, missile arsenals across China, India, and Pakistan, and emerging developments for audiences of all vantage points.”
Learn more here.
The Pandora Report 