Welcome to this week’s Pandora Report! This issuehighlights Anthony Fauci’s contentious Senate hearing on the nation’s COVID-19 response, the state of U.S. public health preparedness as infectious disease threats continue to rise, ongoing H5N1 and New World screwworm challenges, and evolving biosecurity policies at home and abroad.
Anthony Fauci Pleads the Fifth During Contentious Senate COVID-19 Hearing
Former top US health official Anthony Fauci invoked his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination during a tense July 29 hearing before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security, declining to answer questions related to the origins of COVID-19 and the nation’s handling of the pandemic. The hearing, led by Committee Chairman Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), followed the public release of Fauci’s COVID-era diaries and focused on allegations that federal funding supported risky viral research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Fauci’s attorneys advised him not to testify, citing ongoing legal concerns despite the presidential pardon he received from former President Joe Biden. Republican senators criticized his refusal to answer questions and raised the possibility of contempt proceedings, while Democratic lawmakers characterized the hearing as politically motivated and defended Fauci’s public health record.
Is America Becoming Less Prepared for the Next Pandemic?
The United States is confronting several infectious disease threats at once – hantavirus, screwworm, Ebola, cyclospora, measles, whooping cough, and bird flu. Former CDC officials warn that major changes made by the administration to the nation’s public health infrastructure – reducing funding, cutting staff, changing priorities, and shuttering USAID – have left the US in worse shape than before the COVID-19 pandemic. According to The Guardian, 80% of senior leadership positions at the CDC still lack permanent officials, and the agency has lost an estimated 25-30% of its workforce. Given the dearth of proper “boots on the ground” experience, the US appears less prepared for the next major public health emergency.
It has also been reported that the Trump administration has quietly reduced the role of the HHS’ Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), which supports research aimed at improving patient safety, healthcare quality, and emergency preparedness. Meanwhile, Politicoreported that the State Department will move forward with dispensing approximately $600M in previously delayed vaccine funding after HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. held up the funding for months due to concerns about vaccine safety. Separately, a new analysis found that while the U.S. has strengthened several aspects of its Ebola response since the 2014-2016 West Africa epidemic – including airport screening, lab diagnostics, and hospital preparedness – experts warn that maintaining these capabilities will require sustained investment and experienced personnel.
These concerns surrounding the U.S. international disease response capacity grow as disease activity continues to rise nationwide. U.S. cyclospora infection cases have reached record levels in 2026 following multiple foodborne outbreaks. U.S. measles cases have surpassed last year’s total and reached their highest level in more than three decades, driven by declining childhood vaccination coverage and several outbreaks around the nation. Taken together, these developments paint a troubling picture for the US – even as disease threats continue to mount, the nation’s public health infrastructure appears to be backsliding.
California Judge Rules H5N1 Quarantine Locations to Stay Confidential
A Sacramento County Superior Court judge ruled against disclosing the names and locations of California dairies quarantined during the 2024-25 bird flu outbreak, siding with state agriculture officials. More than 750 dairies were quarantined statewide during that period as officials worked to contain the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza. The suit was filed by the California Rural Legal Assistance (CRLA), which argued that making the information public would improve oversight of the state’s response, help protect dairy workers, and provide researchers with data to better understand the outbreak. The judge acknowledged the public interest in government transparency but concluded that protecting producer confidentiality would encourage farmers to report sick animals promptly and cooperate with disease investigations. Amanda Murray, California’s acting state veterinarian and branch chief of Animal Health and Food Safety Services, wrote, “Loss of this trust would likely have a chilling effect, wherein producers would either delay reporting or not report clinical signs of disease.” Out of fear of public backlash, some farms might have culled sick animals and disposed of them themselves, potentially spreading the disease unintentionally. Industry groups have praised the decision as vital to maintaining trust between producers and regulators, while CRLA says it’s weighing further legal options.
Cattle Imports from Mexico to Resume Amid Ongoing NWS Outbreaks
Last Friday, USDA announced a phased reopening of the US-Mexico border to cattle imports, despite the ongoing efforts to prevent further spread of New World Screwworm (NWS) into the country. Imports will start August 24 at the Douglas, Arizona port, with New Mexico crossings to follow pending Mexico’s compliance with a joint action plan targeting NWS. Sonora and Chihuahua were identified as lower-risk source states in Mexico due to stronger inspection infrastructure. The decision follows sustained pressure from Republicans and cattle industry groups to reopen the border amid elevated beef prices, a concern shared by the administration, which aims to lower prices ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins had previously resisted reopening the southern border over screwworm concerns, while acknowledging the economic challenges it posed to various sectors of the industry in Texas. The Biden administration first closed the border to cattle imports in late 2024 following detection of NWS in southern Mexico. The Trump administration then temporarily reopened the border from January to May 2025, before closing it again as screwworms moved northward in Mexico. While many industry groups applaud the move, others, including the United States Cattlemen’s Association (USCA), remain wary that reopening risks reintroducing the parasite before containment is complete. USCA President Justin Tupper responded to the decision, saying, “Any effort to lower beef prices must not come at the expense of U.S. cattle herd health. We’ve been encouraged to rebuild the domestic herd; it is of utmost importance, and unnecessary exposure to animal health threats is a risk we do not need to take.”
Rising Temps, Rising Risks: Infectious Disease in the 2026 El Niño Year
From the Pandemic Center: “Climate variability, including El Niño-driven shifts in temperature and rainfall, is reshaping infectious disease risks by altering the environments where pathogens and vectors thrive. This year is progressing towards a historically severe El Niño event — a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
What impact will this compounding climate event have on disease prevalence, and which regions are most vulnerable? In this Pandemic Center webinar, we will convene an expert panel to discuss these questions and more.”
This webinar will take place on July 31 at 12:00 PM ET. Learn more and register here.
Data and Situational Awareness for Medical and Public Health Preparedness and Response: A Workshop Series
From the National Academies: “The Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Disasters and Emergencies workshop series will explore how medical, public health, emergency management, and critical infrastructure data are collected, integrated, analyzed, and translated into real-time information to support timely, coordinated decision-making before, during, and after disasters and emergencies.”
This workshop series will take place on September 23. Learn more and register here.
Preparing for a Future of AI-Enabled Biology – A Workshop
From the National Academy of Medicine (NAM): “Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the life sciences, including how researchers study biology, develop vaccines and treatments, and detect disease outbreaks. While these advances could improve public health and preparedness, they also raise important questions about safety, security, and the possibility of misuse.”
This event will take place on August 11-12. Learn more and register here.
Ninth Session of the Working Group on the Strengthening of the Biological Weapons Convention
From the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA): “We will convene the Ninth Session of the Working Group on the Strengthening of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). Chaired by Ambassador Frederico S. Duque Estrada Meyer of Brazil, the meeting will bring together State Parties, international organizations, academic institutions, and civil society representatives to continue discussions on strengthening the Convention and advancing efforts to address biological threats. Public sessions will be webcast through UN Web TV, and side events are expected throughout the week.
This event will take place from August 17-21 at the Palais des Nations in Geneva, Switzerland. Learn more and register by July 31sthere.
From the Asia Centre for Health Security: “This table-top simulation exercise aims to enhance inter-sectoral and inter-disciplinary preparedness for laboratory biosafety and biosecurity (LBB) and deliberate biothreat events (DBE). Through lectures, discussions, and structured, scenario-driven exercises, participants will explore decision-making to detect, risk-assess, and manage high-consequence biological incidents under conditions of incomplete information and unfolding events. Participants will collaborate in teams, building on expert perspectives to address issues in surveillance, diagnostics, public health response, security assessment, and risk communication.”
This in-person event will take place from August 27-28. Learn more and register here.
Training Course on ‘Biotechnology Innovation and Biosecurity’
From the International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (ICGEB) and the Biological Weapons Convention Implementation Support Unit: “This training focuses on strengthening capacities in biosecurity, biosafety, and biological risk management in the context of rapid advances in biotechnology with an integrated, interdisciplinary approach to manage biothreats at the intersection of humans, animals, plants and the environment. It addresses the governance, technical, and operational dimensions of preventing, detecting, and responding to biological threats, while promoting responsible and peaceful scientific research and innovation in accordance with article X of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).”
This in-person event will be held from October 12-16 in New Delhi, India. Learn more and apply here.
Biomanufacturing for Defense & Security Summit
From Diversified Solutions Incorporated (DSI Groups): “This event will bring together senior thought leaders and stakeholders from across DoW, Military Research Labs, Federal Government, Commercial Industry, & Academia to discuss how each are advancing biomanufacturing to enhance national security objectives, produce critical materials for defense applications, and strengthen the overall U.S. bioindustrial manufacturing base. Biomanufacturing is crucial for U.S. national security because it enables domestic production of critical materials, medicines, and defense supplies, reducing reliance on foreign adversaries, which in turn creates resilient supply chains for the military and economy.”
This event will take place from October 27-28 at the National Harbor, MD. Learn more and register here.
WHO Internship Programme
From WHO: “A competent and dynamic health workforce at the heart of each health system is essential to advance global health goals. Countries need a pool of health professionals trained and exposed to the systems and processes in the health sector and who understand how stakeholders interact within the international health arena. WHO’s Internship Programme offers a wide range of opportunities for students and recent graduates to gain insight into the technical and administrative programmes of WHO and enrich their knowledge and experience in various areas, thereby contributing to the advancement of public health.”
From OpenAI: “As part of our ongoing efforts to strengthen our safeguards for advanced AI capabilities in biology, we’re evolving our GPT‑5.5 Bio Bug Bounty to become an ongoing private program—the OpenAI Bio Bounty Program. The program will remain focused on universal jailbreaks that can defeat our predefined biosafety challenge against OpenAI’s frontier models, starting with GPT‑5.6 and going forward. The reward for a universal jailbreak for the OpenAI Bio Bounty Program has been raised from $25,000 to $50,000 for both GPT‑5.6 and GPT‑5.5. Smaller awards may be granted for partial wins at our discretion.”
Disarmament and non-proliferation of WMD – Training Program
From Asser Institute and OPCW: “By 2026, pressure on the international arms control system has reached a point few experts anticipated would arrive so quickly, driven largely by intense geopolitical fragmentation. There is a critical need for professionals who possess the legal, technical, and diplomatic expertise to navigate these modern complexities. This intensive five-day training provides a comprehensive, practical overview of the international non-proliferation and disarmament framework.”
This program will take place from October 26-30 in The Hague, the Netherlands. Learn more and register here.
Welcome to this week’s Pandora Report! This issue highlights a multistate Cyclospora outbreak linked to recalled iceberg lettuce served at Taco Bell locations, updates on the continued global spread of H5N1 avian influenza from Cambodia to New Zealand, and the DHS’s new AI-enabled biological threat detection challenge under the Genesis Mission.
Taco Bell Cyclospora Outbreak Linked to Recalled Iceberg Lettuce
The CDC, FDA, and public health officials are investigating a new multistate outbreak of the diarrhea-causing parasiteCyclospora, which has been linked to iceberg lettuce served at Taco Bell locations in 9 states. As of July 24, at least 1,947 confirmed illnesses and 98 hospitalizations have been reported across Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, with no deaths recorded. Epidemiological investigations have identified iceberg lettuce sourced from central Mexico by Taylor Farms de Mexico as the likely source of the outbreak, prompting a voluntary recall of all affected lettuce products distributed to consumers, restaurants, and retailers in at least 27 states.
Illness onset dates range from June 22 to July 20, 2026. Despite the recall, public health officials expect to see the number of confirmed cases continue to rise because it can take up to 6 weeks for laboratory testing to determine whether an illness is associated with the outbreak. The FDA continues to advise the public to avoid all products listed in Taylor Farms’ voluntary recall.
The outbreak has also temporarily affected Taco Bell’s business performance, with consumer foot traffic declining nearly 30% following public notification of the investigation. However, industry analysts expect the financial impact to be short-lived, citing the company’s rapid removal of affected lettuce from its supply chain and proactive public communications. The CDC also continues to investigate other unrelated cyclosporiasis outbreaks occurring nationwide.
Cambodia has confirmed its fifth human H5N1 case of the year, involving a 9-month-old girl who is currently hospitalized and receiving intensive care. No source of infection has yet been identified, though her close contacts are being given Tamiflu as a precaution. Cambodia reported 19 human cases in 2025, eight of them fatal, with most recent infections involving a reassorted strain which blends an older clade circulating since 2014 with the globally spreading 2.3.4.4b clade. Meanwhile in the US, APHIS reported a second consecutive egg-farm outbreak in Utah, bringing the 30-day national poultry toll to 1.49 million. New cattle detections in Utah and Idaho added four cases each, pushing the year’s total to 81.
Just days after confirming bird flu in a migratory bird, New Zealand detected the first infection of H5N1 in a native bird late last week. The country’s chief veterinary officer Mary van Andel says the disease is likely to become endemic within months, mirroring outcomes elsewhere in the world. Further spillover into native wildlife is probable and experts warn the consequences could be severe. In response, the Department of Conservation has begun vaccinating 300 core breeding birds across five of the country’s most endangered species, including kākāpō and takahē. Officials stress there is no food safety risk, and chicken and eggs remain safe to eat.
These developments fit a broader global picture. The dominant strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza, H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, has now reached every continent following the recent detections in Australia and New Zealand, closing the last geographic gap in the outbreak. Since 2020, the virus has proven unusually adept at jumping into mammals, including foxes, seals, and, unexpectedly, U.S. dairy cattle. Fortunately, human infection remains uncommon, with over 880 sporadic cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) since 1997 and no sustained human-to-human transmission documented. Still, scientists are watching newer, more severe genotypes and evidence of possible asymptomatic infection, which points to a virus that continues to evolve and could eventually pose a global pandemic risk.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science & Technology Directorate (S&T) announced a new set of national challenges – part of the “Genesis Mission” – aimed at bolstering the U.S.’ security and global leadership in critical and emerging technology. This includes an initiative to deploy AI-enabled platforms to rapidly detect, characterize, and attribute emerging biological threats to safeguard public health and the bioeconomy. By leveraging federal biological data resources, national laboratories, and cross-agency collaboration, this effort aims to shorten detection and response timelines, deter adversaries, and protect Americans from the misuse of biotechnology.
Join the DC Biosecurity Happy Hour, an informal event for biosecurity enthusiasts in DC to get to know each other outside of Zoom calls and talk about new ideas in the space.
This event will take place on Tuesday, July 28, from 6:30 PM-8:30 PM ET. Learn more and register here.
NEW: Rising Temps, Rising Risks: Infectious Disease in the 2026 El Niño Year
From the Pandemic Center: “Climate variability, including El Niño-driven shifts in temperature and rainfall, is reshaping infectious disease risks by altering the environments where pathogens and vectors thrive. This year is progressing towards a historically severe El Niño event — a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
What impact will this compounding climate event have on disease prevalence, and which regions are most vulnerable? In this Pandemic Center webinar, we will convene an expert panel to discuss these questions and more.”
This webinar will take place on July 31 at 12:00 PM ET. Learn more and register here.
Data and Situational Awareness for Medical and Public Health Preparedness and Response: A Workshop Series
From the National Academies: “The Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Disasters and Emergencies workshop series will explore how medical, public health, emergency management, and critical infrastructure data are collected, integrated, analyzed, and translated into real-time information to support timely, coordinated decision-making before, during, and after disasters and emergencies.”
This workshop series will take place on July 21, July 28, and September 23. Learn more and register here.
Tracking Health Security Progress and Building Resilience in Africa – A Webinar
From the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI): “The world is shifting from a period of urgent health actions to one of vast growing neglect, even as biological threats continue to rise. Against this backdrop, the 2026 Africa Health Security Index shows great progress has been made across the continent – but substantial gaps remain.
Join NTI, the Brown University Pandemic Center, Economist Enterprise, and the Science for Africa Foundation for a discussion of the findings and recommendations of the 2026 Africa Health Security (AHS) Index, an independent assessment of health security capacities in Africa.
This webinar will convene global experts and policymakers to discuss how the AHS Index can shape policy decision-making and drive meaningful action to strengthen health security capacities and improve preparedness for future epidemics and pandemics.”
This virtual event will take place on July 29 from 8:30 AM-10:00 AM ET (3:30-5:00 PM EAT). Learn more and register here.
Preparing for a Future of AI-Enabled Biology – A Workshop
From the National Academy of Medicine (NAM): “Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the life sciences, including how researchers study biology, develop vaccines and treatments, and detect disease outbreaks. While these advances could improve public health and preparedness, they also raise important questions about safety, security, and the possibility of misuse.”
This event will take place on August 11-12. Learn more and register here.
Ninth Session of the Working Group on the Strengthening of the Biological Weapons Convention
From the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA): “We will convene the Ninth Session of the Working Group on the Strengthening of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). Chaired by Ambassador Frederico S. Duque Estrada Meyer of Brazil, the meeting will bring together State Parties, international organizations, academic institutions, and civil society representatives to continue discussions on strengthening the Convention and advancing efforts to address biological threats. Public sessions will be webcast through UN Web TV, and side events are expected throughout the week.
This event will take place from August 17-21 at the Palais des Nations in Geneva, Switzerland. Learn more and register by July 31sthere.
From the Asia Centre for Health Security: “This table-top simulation exercise aims to enhance inter-sectoral and inter-disciplinary preparedness for laboratory biosafety and biosecurity (LBB) and deliberate biothreat events (DBE). Through lectures, discussions, and structured, scenario-driven exercises, participants will explore decision-making to detect, risk-assess, and manage high-consequence biological incidents under conditions of incomplete information and unfolding events. Participants will collaborate in teams, building on expert perspectives to address issues in surveillance, diagnostics, public health response, security assessment, and risk communication.”
This in-person event will take place from August 27-28. Learn more and register here.
Training Course on ‘Biotechnology Innovation and Biosecurity’
From the International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (ICGEB) and the Biological Weapons Convention Implementation Support Unit: “This training focuses on strengthening capacities in biosecurity, biosafety, and biological risk management in the context of rapid advances in biotechnology with an integrated, interdisciplinary approach to manage biothreats at the intersection of humans, animals, plants and the environment. It addresses the governance, technical, and operational dimensions of preventing, detecting, and responding to biological threats, while promoting responsible and peaceful scientific research and innovation in accordance with article X of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).”
This in-person event will be held from October 12-16 in New Delhi, India. Learn more and apply here.
Biomanufacturing for Defense & Security Summit
From Diversified Solutions Incorporated (DSI Groups): “This event will bring together senior thought leaders and stakeholders from across DoW, Military Research Labs, Federal Government, Commercial Industry, & Academia to discuss how each are advancing biomanufacturing to enhance national security objectives, produce critical materials for defense applications, and strengthen the overall U.S. bioindustrial manufacturing base. Biomanufacturing is crucial for U.S. national security because it enables domestic production of critical materials, medicines, and defense supplies, reducing reliance on foreign adversaries, which in turn creates resilient supply chains for the military and economy.”
This event will take place from October 27-28 at the National Harbor, MD. Learn more and register here.
WHO Internship Programme
From WHO: “A competent and dynamic health workforce at the heart of each health system is essential to advance global health goals. Countries need a pool of health professionals trained and exposed to the systems and processes in the health sector and who understand how stakeholders interact within the international health arena. WHO’s Internship Programme offers a wide range of opportunities for students and recent graduates to gain insight into the technical and administrative programmes of WHO and enrich their knowledge and experience in various areas, thereby contributing to the advancement of public health.”
From OpenAI: “As part of our ongoing efforts to strengthen our safeguards for advanced AI capabilities in biology, we’re evolving our GPT‑5.5 Bio Bug Bounty to become an ongoing private program—the OpenAI Bio Bounty Program. The program will remain focused on universal jailbreaks that can defeat our predefined biosafety challenge against OpenAI’s frontier models, starting with GPT‑5.6 and going forward. The reward for a universal jailbreak for the OpenAI Bio Bounty Program has been raised from $25,000 to $50,000 for both GPT‑5.6 and GPT‑5.5. Smaller awards may be granted for partial wins at our discretion.”
Disarmament and non-proliferation of WMD – Training Program
From Asser Institute and OPCW: “By 2026, pressure on the international arms control system has reached a point few experts anticipated would arrive so quickly, driven largely by intense geopolitical fragmentation. There is a critical need for professionals who possess the legal, technical, and diplomatic expertise to navigate these modern complexities. This intensive five-day training provides a comprehensive, practical overview of the international non-proliferation and disarmament framework.”
This program will take place from October 26-30 in The Hague, the Netherlands. Learn more and register here.
Welcome to this week’s Pandora Report! This issue highlights a new proposal to modernize U.S. biosecurity governance, the continued global spread of H5N1 avian influenza and New World screwworm, the escalating Ebola outbreak in the DRC, and upcoming events and opportunities focused on biosecurity, One Health, pandemic preparedness, and emerging biotechnology.
FAS Proposes Overhaul of U.S. Biosecurity Governance Towards Adaptive Frameworks
A new briefing paper from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), authored by Sam Weiss Evans, argues that the United States’ fragmented biosecurity governance system is ill-equipped to address emerging risks posed by biotechnology and calls for a fundamental shift from reactive, piecemeal oversight to a centralized, adaptive governance model. The paper contends that existing authorities are dispersed across multiple agencies, creating regulatory gaps as advances in areas such as AI-enabled biology, gene synthesis, and cloud laboratories outpace current policies. To modernize biosecurity, the author outlines seven design requirements for a new institutional framework, including proactive and multi-sectoral risk identification, oversight spanning the full innovation lifecycle, the ability to develop and test new governing tools, and continuous adaptation as technologies evolve.
Bird Flu and New World Screwworm: A Week in Review
H5N1 avian influenza has once again expanded into new territory. New Zealand confirmed its first case this week after a migratory seabird found near Wellington tested positive. Fortunately, officials have found no evidence of poultry infections, mass wildlife mortality, or transmission between wild birds within the country. Nevertheless, health officials have started a vaccination program for 300 core breeding birds from five endangered species, including the flightless takahe and kakapo. The vaccine was trialed last year with no adverse side effects, but it is uncertain how effective it was given that those birds had not been exposed to the virus. “We are incredibly worried about New Zealand’s biodiversity because our birds have never had to deal with anything like this before,” said Brett Gartrell, professor of wildlife health at Massey University.
Meanwhile, multiple human H5N1 bird flu cases were reported in Asia. Cambodia reported its 5th human H5N1 case of 2026, a 9-month-old girl from Phnom Penh confirmed positive on July 9. No source of exposure has been identified yet. This brings Cambodia’s total to 39 cases since a 2023 reemergence of the older 2.3.2.1e clade. Bangladesh confirmed its 3rd H5N1 case of the year in a child from Sylhet Division.
As New World screwworm continues to spread, officials warn that feral hogs could carry the parasite into Oklahoma. So far, Texas has not reported any screwworm cases in wildlife, though this may be due to the challenge of monitoring non-domestic animals. Feral swine pose a unique risk because they roam widely, are difficult to track, and often develop injuries from fighting that would attract infestations. Screwworm control in these animals would be extremely difficult as infested animals could not be medicated. Though the wild populations are a problem, state veterinarian Dr. Rod Hall said the most immediate threat is currently illegal interstate transport of hogs, a felony in Oklahoma. Officials are coordinating with hunters, wildlife rehabilitators, and commercial hunting operations to expand surveillance. Ranchers and the public are urged to report animals with unusual wounds or maggots immediately.
NEW: Strategic Preparedness Exchange and Archive Repository (SPEAR) and Practical Preparedness Solutions – A Webinar
From Shield Initiative: “The SHIELD Initiative invites you to a dynamic webinar introducing SPEAR, the Strategic Preparedness Exchange and Archive Repository. This new, user-friendly platform is designed to make preparedness and response resources accessible to frontline preparedness practitioners across public health, health care, and emergency management.”
This virtual event will take place on July 21 from 3:00–4:00 PM ET. Learn more and register here.
NEW: Bagels & Biotech: Synthetic Cells
Join the National Academy of Medicine and science, technology, and policy professionals from the Washington, DC region for breakfast and conversations as we explore how breakthroughs in synthetic cell systems could transform biomedical and health applications, including therapeutics, diagnostics, regenerative medicine, and distributed biomanufacturing.
This event will take place on July 22 from 8:30-10:30 AM ET at The Keck Center in Washington, DC. Learn more and register here.
NEW: The Global One Health Movement: Why Social Scientists are Critical to Making One Health Thinking, Acting, and Decision-Making the Default for Humankind – a Webinar
From the One Health Commission: “As global health challenges become increasingly interconnected, the integration of social sciences into the One Health approach is more important than ever. In this inspiring session, Dr. Stroud will discuss how social scientists contribute to making One Health thinking, collaboration, and evidence-based decision-making the global standard. The webinar will also explore innovative approaches to addressing food safety, food security, public health, animal health, environmental sustainability, and other complex challenges through interdisciplinary collaboration.”
This virtual event will take place on July 22 at 11:00 AM ET (5:00 PM CET). Learn more and register here.
The 100 Days Mission and the Future of Vaccine Readiness – Webinar
From the Pandemic Center Biosecurity Game Changers Fellows: “Convened and moderated by and intended for early-to-mid-career professionals, the Game Changers Seminar Series shines a spotlight on major challenges that will confront the next generation of biosecurity leaders and explores impactful next steps that can be taken to lean forward faster to prevent biological crises.
This seminar will explore the future of vaccine readiness through the lens of the 100 Days Mission. The discussion will examine the scientific, policy, financing, and implementation requirements to achieving this goal, drawing on lessons from the recent Ebola and Hantavirus outbreaks to inform future pandemic preparedness.”
This webinar will take place on July 17 at 11:00 AM ET. Learn more and register here.
Data and Situational Awareness for Medical and Public Health Preparedness and Response: A Workshop Series
From the National Academies: “The Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Disasters and Emergencies workshop series will explore how medical, public health, emergency management, and critical infrastructure data are collected, integrated, analyzed, and translated into real-time information to support timely, coordinated decision-making before, during, and after disasters and emergencies.”
This workshop series will take place on July 21, July 28, and September 23. Learn more and register here.
Tracking Health Security Progress and Building Resilience in Africa – A Webinar
From the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI): “The world is shifting from a period of urgent health actions to one of vast growing neglect, even as biological threats continue to rise. Against this backdrop, the 2026 Africa Health Security Index shows great progress has been made across the continent – but substantial gaps remain.
Join NTI, the Brown University Pandemic Center, Economist Enterprise, and the Science for Africa Foundation for a discussion of the findings and recommendations of the 2026 Africa Health Security (AHS) Index, an independent assessment of health security capacities in Africa.
This webinar will convene global experts and policymakers to discuss how the AHS Index can shape policy decision-making and drive meaningful action to strengthen health security capacities and improve preparedness for future epidemics and pandemics.”
This virtual event will take place on July 29 from 8:30 AM-10:00 AM ET (3:30-5:00 PM EAT). Learn more and register here.
Preparing for a Future of AI-Enabled Biology – A Workshop
From the National Academy of Medicine (NAM): “Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the life sciences, including how researchers study biology, develop vaccines and treatments, and detect disease outbreaks. While these advances could improve public health and preparedness, they also raise important questions about safety, security, and the possibility of misuse.”
This event will take place on August 11-12. Learn more and register here.
Ninth Session of the Working Group on the Strengthening of the Biological Weapons Convention
From the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA): “We will convene the Ninth Session of the Working Group on the Strengthening of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). Chaired by Ambassador Frederico S. Duque Estrada Meyer of Brazil, the meeting will bring together State Parties, international organizations, academic institutions, and civil society representatives to continue discussions on strengthening the Convention and advancing efforts to address biological threats. Public sessions will be webcast through UN Web TV, and side events are expected throughout the week.
This event will take place from August 17-21 at the Palais des Nations in Geneva, Switzerland. Learn more and register by July 31sthere.
From the Asia Centre for Health Security: “This table-top simulation exercise aims to enhance inter-sectoral and inter-disciplinary preparedness for laboratory biosafety and biosecurity (LBB) and deliberate biothreat events (DBE). Through lectures, discussions, and structured, scenario-driven exercises, participants will explore decision-making to detect, risk-assess, and manage high-consequence biological incidents under conditions of incomplete information and unfolding events. Participants will collaborate in teams, building on expert perspectives to address issues in surveillance, diagnostics, public health response, security assessment, and risk communication.”
This in-person event will take place from August 27-28. Learn more and register here.
Training Course on ‘Biotechnology Innovation and Biosecurity’
From the International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (ICGEB) and the Biological Weapons Convention Implementation Support Unit: “This training focuses on strengthening capacities in biosecurity, biosafety, and biological risk management in the context of rapid advances in biotechnology with an integrated, interdisciplinary approach to manage biothreats at the intersection of humans, animals, plants and the environment. It addresses the governance, technical, and operational dimensions of preventing, detecting, and responding to biological threats, while promoting responsible and peaceful scientific research and innovation in accordance with article X of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).”
This in-person event will be held from October 12-16 in New Delhi, India. Learn more and apply here.
Biomanufacturing for Defense & Security Summit
From Diversified Solutions Incorporated (DSI Groups): “This event will bring together senior thought leaders and stakeholders from across DoW, Military Research Labs, Federal Government, Commercial Industry, & Academia to discuss how each are advancing biomanufacturing to enhance national security objectives, produce critical materials for defense applications, and strengthen the overall U.S. bioindustrial manufacturing base. Biomanufacturing is crucial for U.S. national security because it enables domestic production of critical materials, medicines, and defense supplies, reducing reliance on foreign adversaries, which in turn creates resilient supply chains for the military and economy.”
This event will take place from October 27-28 at the National Harbor, MD. Learn more and register here.
NEW: WHO Internship Programme
From WHO: “A competent and dynamic health workforce at the heart of each health system is essential to advance global health goals. Countries need a pool of health professionals trained and exposed to the systems and processes in the health sector and who understand how stakeholders interact within the international health arena. WHO’s Internship Programme offers a wide range of opportunities for students and recent graduates to gain insight into the technical and administrative programmes of WHO and enrich their knowledge and experience in various areas, thereby contributing to the advancement of public health.”
From OpenAI: “As part of our ongoing efforts to strengthen our safeguards for advanced AI capabilities in biology, we’re evolving our GPT‑5.5 Bio Bug Bounty to become an ongoing private program—the OpenAI Bio Bounty Program. The program will remain focused on universal jailbreaks that can defeat our predefined biosafety challenge against OpenAI’s frontier models, starting with GPT‑5.6 and going forward. The reward for a universal jailbreak for the OpenAI Bio Bounty Program has been raised from $25,000 to $50,000 for both GPT‑5.6 and GPT‑5.5. Smaller awards may be granted for partial wins at our discretion.”
NEW: Disarmament and non-proliferation of WMD – Training Program
From Asser Institute and OPCW: “By 2026, pressure on the international arms control system has reached a point few experts anticipated would arrive so quickly, driven largely by intense geopolitical fragmentation. There is a critical need for professionals who possess the legal, technical, and diplomatic expertise to navigate these modern complexities. This intensive five-day training provides a comprehensive, practical overview of the international non-proliferation and disarmament framework.”
This program will take place from October 26-30 in The Hague, the Netherlands. Learn more and register here.
Senior Fellow and Director, The Technology and Global Security Program – Job Opening
From The Henry L. Stimson Center: “The Henry L. Stimson Center, an award-winning foreign policy think tank, seeks a highly motivated individual to serve as Senior Fellow and Director of its newly established Technology and Global Security Program. The Program will work on the security implications of a broad range of emerging and converging technologies, including quantum technologies, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, additive manufacturing, uncrewed systems, distributed ledger technologies, nuclear technologies, and other innovations reshaping the international security landscape.”
This week covers the updated Doomsday Clock time, new HHS cybersecurity performance goals for the health sector, a podcast episode with our own Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley covering her work on barriers to biological weapons, new publications, and more!
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board Leaves Doomsday Clock at 90 Seconds to Midnight
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board recently announced that it left the Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight this year, based on threats like nuclear risk, climate change, biological threats, and disruptive technologies. In its statement, the board said in part “Ominous trends continue to point the world toward global catastrophe. The war in Ukraine and the widespread and growing reliance on nuclear weapons increase the risk of nuclear escalation. China, Russia, and the United States are all spending huge sums to expand or modernize their nuclear arsenals, adding to the ever-present danger of nuclear war through mistake or miscalculation.”
“In 2023, Earth experienced its hottest year on record, and massive floods, wildfires, and other climate-related disasters affected millions of people around the world. Meanwhile, rapid and worrisome developments in the life sciences and other disruptive technologies accelerated, while governments made only feeble efforts to control them.”
In its in-depth explanation of biological risks that factored into this decision, the board explains that “The revolution in the life sciences and associated technologies continues to accelerate and expand in scope, enabling an increasing number of individuals, in groups and alone, to pose threats arising from both accidental and deliberate misuse. During the past six months, the potential for artificial intelligence tools to empower individuals to misuse biology has become far more apparent.”
The same sidebar also explains that “Two other types of biological risks remain causes for concern: accidental release of organisms from laboratories and naturally occurring infectious diseases, especially those with pandemic potential. Deforestation, urbanization, and climate change continue to destabilize microbe-host relationships and facilitate the emergence of infectious diseases. Meanwhile, high-biosafety-level laboratories have proliferated around the world, as has risky research motivated by interests in controlling these diseases. Despite the importance of understanding and countering naturally occurring biological threats, it isn’t clear that all of these high-biosafety-level laboratories or high-risk experiments are needed for achieving these goals. As the number of laboratories and amount of risky research increases, and the failure to standardize safe laboratory practices and to institute adequate research oversight persists, the risk of accidental release of dangerous pathogens worsens.”
HHS Announces New Voluntary Performance Goals, Resources for Health Sector Cybersecurity
This week, the Department of Health and Human Services announced via the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) that it is releasing “voluntary health care specific cybersecurity performance goals (CPGs) and a new gateway website to help Health Care and Public Health (HPH) sector organizations implement these high-impact cybersecurity practices and ease access to the plethora of cybersecurity resources HHS and other federal partners offer.”
The statement further explained “As outlined in the recent HHS Health Care Sector Cybersecurity concept paper, HHS is publishing the CPGs to help health care organizations, and health care delivery organizations in particular, prioritize implementation of high-impact cybersecurity practices. The HPH CPGs are designed to better protect the healthcare sector from cyberattacks, improve response when events occur, and minimize residual risk. HPH CPGs include both essential goals to outline minimum foundational practices for cybersecurity performance and enhanced goals to encourage adoption of more advanced practices.”
“Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley on Barriers to Bioweapons”
From Hear This Idea: “Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley is an associate professor at George Mason University and the deputy director of their biodefense program. Sonia has written extensively on the proliferation and non-proliferation of bioweapons, being one of the key voices to have emphasized the challenges that organizations, tacit knowledge, and other factors have caused for states and terrorists that have attempted to acquire weapons of mass destruction.”
Misconceptions around the ease of bioweapon production — how and why bioweapons programs face unique challenges compared to nuclear weapons programs
The crucial role of tacit knowledge in bioweapons production
Will AI make bioweapons much easier to develop, or will human expertise remain a major bottleneck?
Case studies of bioweapons programs, illustrating the practical difficulties and failures encountered even by well-resourced state actors.
(How) has Biological Weapons Convention prevented bioweapon proliferation?
Do global political trends point towards proliferation, even without AI?”
“How Reliable is ISIS’s Claiming Responsibility for Deadly Attacks in Iran?”
Schar School associate professor Mahmut Cengiz recently authored this piece for Homeland Security Today, in which he writes in part “These discrepancies related to the twin blasts bring up a question of how reliable ISIS is when the group claims responsibility for terrorist attacks. Terrorist groups aim to take credit when a group spokesperson, on behalf of the organization, states that the group is the perpetrator of the attack. They tend to claim responsibility for attacks—targeting state institutions and the military rather than civilians— when they aim to gain publicity and when the backlash from the government is not likely. As opposed to terrorist attacks that claimed most responsibility in the 1980s and 1990s, every one of seven attacks has been recorded claiming responsibility since 2018. According to the Global Terrorism and Trends Analysis Center (GTTAC) Records of Incidents Database (GRID), the attacks by ISIS and its affiliated organizations steadily increased from 2018 to 2022. They conducted 873 attacks in the first ten months of 2023. Contrary to increasing attacks, its attacks of claiming responsibility slightly increased between 2018 and 2020 and dropped in 2021 and 2022. ISIS groups claimed responsibility in its 161 attacks. “
“Beyond Borders, Beyond Biases: Building a Biosecure Future with Diverse Voices”
Aparupa Sengupta, Senior Program Officer for Global Biological Policy and Programs at NTI, discusses the importance of diversity and inclusion in biosafety and biosecurity governance in this piece for NTI. She writes in part “At NTI, we believe the greatest risk of these catastrophic effects is from the accidental or intentional misuse of a bio-engineered agent. Therefore, we focus on developing stronger biosafety and biosecurity policies and practices to protect against these manmade risks. This work requires global cooperation and shared responsibility, and an understanding that diverse perspectives and experiences are essential. Without them, we will face widening knowledge gaps and international resentment, ultimately sabotaging our ability to collectively address bio threats.”
“Recently, the Center for Security and International Studies (CSIS) published a report recommending actions to strengthen global biosafety and biosecurity. As someone with more than 15 years of experience working in the interface of science, technology, and biosafety/security, I endorse all eight recommendations in the report but suggest adding a ninth one to the list: “Prioritize diversity and inclusion for effective global biosafety and biosecurity governance.”’
“Did China Keep the COVID Virus Sequence Secret for Weeks?”
Matt Field breaks down questions surrounding China’s sharing of the SARS-CoV-2 genetic sequence in the early days of COVID-19 in this piece for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: “In outbreak response, speed is critical as authorities seek to quickly determine the cause of a disease and prevent it from spreading. A new report is now raising fresh questions about China’s early response to COVID-19. The Wall Street Journalrevealed Wednesday that a researcher in Beijing attempted to upload the genetic sequence SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID, to a US-based public database about two weeks before the Chinese government publicized the pathogen’s sequence, a lag that potentially robbed scientists and health officials of valuable time.”
“Investigating the Potential Strategic Implications of COVID-19 for Biological Weapons Pursuit: A New Expert Simulation”
Ackerman et al. recently published this article in Health Security: “To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the strategic decisionmaking of leaders with respect to biological weapons, this study employed a prospective simulation technique called Asynchronous Strategic Dynamics Red Teaming. Using an immersive, multimedia simulation conducted remotely and asynchronously, the effort engaged 240 carefully selected and curated expert participants in either biological weapons or the countries of interest (as well as 60 naïve participants). Across our sample of 30 countries, simulated interest in pursuing some type of biological weapons program (defensive or offensive) remained low to moderate. While such interest increased after the simulated onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was limited overall, with only a handful of states showing salient increases in offensive biological weapon interest. When directly referencing why their countries might have changed their post-COVID-19 interest in biological weapons, the most commonly cited reasons were: (1) COVID-19 demonstrated the power of biological weapons to disrupt societies and cause large-scale economic harm, and (2) the pandemic revealed either the state’s own or its rivals’ vulnerability to diseases like COVID-19, as well as an inability to efficiently respond and contain such diseases. In sum, despite a global pandemic with massive consequences, the simulation revealed that most states are not likely to dramatically change their strategic posture regarding pursuit of offensive biological weapons.”
“Catalogue of Civil Society Assistance for BWC States Parties”
From the Stimson Center: “The Catalogue of Civil Society Assistance to States Parties annually highlights the contributions of civil society to the BWC and States Parties and to the enhancement of biological safety and security. From Ottawa to Hamburg, there are civil society assistance programs across the world that are available to support the implementation of the BWC. The catalogue includes organization and project descriptions and points of contact for each program, which aims to facilitate stronger connections between civil society and State Parties in need of assistance.”
“The Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks”
New from RAND: “The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has far-reaching implications across multiple domains, including concern regarding the potential development of biological weapons. This potential application of AI raises particular concerns because it is accessible to nonstate actors and individuals. The speed at which AI technologies are evolving often surpasses the capacity of government regulatory oversight, leading to a potential gap in existing policies and regulations.”
“In this report, the authors share final results of a study of the potential risks of using large language models (LLMs) in the context of biological weapon attacks. They conducted an expert exercise in which teams of researchers role-playing as malign nonstate actors were assigned to realistic scenarios and tasked with planning a biological attack; some teams had access to an LLM along with the internet, and others were provided only access to the internet. The authors sought to identify potential risks posed by LLM misuse, generate policy insights to mitigate any risks, and contribute to responsible LLM development. The findings indicate that using the existing generation of LLMs did not measurably change the operational risk of such an attack.”
“Implementing The Bioeconomy Executive Order: Lessons Learned And Future Considerations”
Nazish Jeffrey breaks down the Federations of American Scientists’ Bioeconomy EO Tracker in this piece, writing “With the U.S. bioeconomy valued at over $950 billion and predicted to steadily increase, the potential for significant economic impact is unmistakable. To leverage this economic opportunity, the 2022 Bioeconomy Executive Order (EO) took a significant step towards addressing the complexities of the bioeconomy and creating a whole-of-government approach. The scope of the EO was vast, assigning around 40 tasks to many different federal agencies, in order to create a national framework to leverage bio-based innovations for sustainable economic growth.”
“To track the numerous tasks assigned by the EO, the Federation of American Scientists have put together a living Bioeconomy EO tracker to monitor the progress of these tasks, enhance accountability and to allow stakeholders to stay informed on the state of the U.S. bioeconomy as it evolves. This FAS tracker was inspired by the initial tracker created by Stanford University when the EO was first published.”
“Public Health Preparedness: HHS Emergency Agency Needs to Strengthen Workforce Planning”
In this new Government Accountability Office report, GAO recommends that “ASPR (1) establish specific goals and performance measures to use for its new hiring office once it is fully operational, (2) develop tailored strategies for recruiting and hiring human capital staff for the new office, (3) identify the critical areas that need workforce assessments and develop plans to implement them, and (4) conduct an agency-wide workforce assessment. HHS neither agreed nor disagreed with the first two recommendations and agreed with the last two recommendations. GAO believes actions are needed to address all of the recommendations.”
“Dissecting Pandemic-Prone Viral Families Volume 2: The Paramyxoviridae”
Amesh A. Adalja covers the Paramyxoviridae family in this volume of Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security’s Dissecting Pandemic-Prone Viral Families,” writing in part “Paramyxoviridae is a large viral family that contains many once common and wellknown human pathogens, such as measles and mumps, as well as other pathogens that pose concerns for their potential to cause epidemic or pandemic disease.1″
“This family of viruses infects a wide variety of species, ranging from reptiles to rodents and fish to birds. While diseases such as measles and mumps cause little morbidity and mortality in advanced societies today—because of high levels of vaccine-induced immunity—other members of this viral family have considerable burdens of infection with attendant morbidity and mortality risks. Also, within this family, there is one genus of consequence – Henipavirus – that has already been responsible for a number of serious emerging infectious diseases. The table below summarizes key genera and viruses of this family.1”
“The Overlooked Bacterial Pandemic”
Moriel et al. recently published this work in Seminars in Immunopathology: “The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant economic and health impact worldwide. It also reinforced the misperception that only viruses can pose a threat to human existence, overlooking that bacteria (e.g., plague and cholera) have severely haunted and shaped the course of human civilization. While the world is preparing for the next viral pandemic, it is again overlooking a silent one: antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This review proposes to show the impact of bacterial infections on civilization to remind the pandemic potential. The work will also discuss a few examples of how bacteria can mutate risking global spread and devastating outcomes, the effect on the global burden, and the prophylactic and therapeutic measures. Indeed, AMR is dramatically increasing and if the trend is not reversed, it has the potential to quickly turn into the most important health problem worldwide.”
“Etymologia: Ring Vaccination”
Sharma et al. recently published this short piece covering ring vaccination’s etymology in Emerging Infectious Diseases: “Ring Vaccination [rɪŋ-væk-sɪ′-neɪ-ʃn] Ring vaccination (expanding ring, surveillance and containment) is a public health measure designed to prevent spread of disease from infected persons to others. This approach targets persons who have had close contact with confirmed or suspected cases and are at a higher risk of infection by vaccinating them first (Figure).”
“Russian Military Thought and Doctrine Related to Non-strategic Nuclear Weapons: Change and Continuity”
William Alberque tackles Russian nuclear doctrine in this report for the International Institute for Strategic Studies: “Russian nuclear doctrine, especially regarding its large stockpile of non-strategic nuclear weapons, has become one of the most pressing issues in Euro-Atlantic security. This report aims to build an understanding of Russia’s strategic nuclear weapons doctrine through empirical research, including by examining the continuities and discontinuities in doctrine across time, through the Cold War, to the collapse of the Soviet Union, to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and in Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine.”
Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction Newsletter
The Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction’s newsletter is published quarterly and is available for subscription here. This quarter’s edition focuses on Italy’s upcoming Global Partnership presidency, the Partnership’s 2023 Programming Annex, featured articles, community updates, and more.
“UNITAD – Key Investigations as UN Mechanism Reaches Its Final Reporting Year”
Sam Biden covers the work of the UN Investigate Team to Promote Accountability Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD), providing an overview of its key investigations in the last two years in this piece for the Human Security Centre. This includes UNITAD’s work on biological and chemical weapons, under which Biden explains in part, “2023 marked a significant stride in the relentless pursuit of accountability for ISIL’s chemical and biological weapons program. The investigation during this reporting period yielded substantial evidence from earlier inquiries strategies regarding the production and delivery of the weapons themselves. These key lines of inquiry harnessed new collaborations with technical experts, including those from the Mine Action Service, provided essential insights into a wide array of attacks. UNITADs work extended to collecting and preserving evidence linked to 12 attacks yet continued to focus on gathering further evidence from the 2016 attack on Tazah Khurmatu. This ultimately led to the collection of new battlefield evidence and files, shedding light on ISIL’s operations in Kirkuk and implicating specific persons of interest. A comprehensive report focused on the 2016 attack on Tazah Khurmatu was shared with the Iraqi judiciary, encapsulating critical findings from the ongoing investigation.”
ICYMI-“Event Summary: U.S.–UK Strategic Dialogue on Biosecurity”
“On January 16, the Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) hosted senior government leaders for the launch of the U.S.–UK Strategic Dialogue on Biosecurity at the historic National Academy of Sciences Building in Washington, D.C.”
“Building upon decades of partnership between the two countries, the Strategic Dialogue is a core component of the Atlantic Declaration—the new bilateral economic partnership established in 2023 to adapt, reinforce, and reimagine the U.S.-UK alliance for the challenges of the twenty-first century. Following the event, the U.S. National Security Council and the UK Cabinet Office released a joint statement outlining the Strategic Dialogue’s intent, including coordination to uphold global norms and commitments to lead on innovation in biotechnology and biosecurity.”
NEW: AI Rewards, Risks, and the Future of Biosecurity by Design (Pandemic Center Webinar)
From the Brown School of Public Health: “On January 24th at 1:00 PM EST the Pandemic Center will host a webinar titled AI Rewards, Risks, and the Future of Biosecurity by Design.”
“This event will bring together experts in biosecurity, global health, and pandemic prevention and response. Together, they will discuss the relationship between AI and biosecurity, with a focus on benefits, risks, and pragmatic solutions.”
“This event will be hosted and moderated by Beth Cameron, PhD, Professor of the Practice and Senior Advisor to the Pandemic Center.”
NEW: Kazakhstan’s Actions to Address Nuclear and Biological Risks
From the Cargenie Endowment for International Peace: “Upon the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan found itself in possession of the world’s fourth-largest nuclear weapons stockpile and the former union’s most significant biological weapons factory. Kazakhstan’s subsequent decision to return and dismantle these weapons has solidified its position as a leader in nuclear and biological risk reduction. For the last thirty years, Kazakhstan’s actions have served as a core model for regional and international security.”
“Please join the Carnegie Endowment and the Council on Strategic Risks for a hybrid panel on Kazakhstan’s increasingly global role in the changing threat landscape of weapons of mass destruction. The discussion will feature Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to the United States of America Yerzhan Ashikbayev, the Honorable Andrew Weber, and Dr. Toghzan Kassenova. It will be moderated by Shannon Green, senior fellow at the Council on Strategic Risks.”
This event will take place on January 30 at 1:30 pm EST. Learn more and RSVP here.
NEW: WEBINAR: State Department 2023 Global Terrorism Data: Trends & Warnings
From Homeland Security Today: “Join HSToday for a Law Enforcement-only analysis of global terrorism trends from 2023 and threat forecasts for 2024. The Department of State’s yearly Annex of Statistical Information Reports uses The Global Terrorism Trends and Analysis Center (GTTAC) database.”
“Dr. Mahmut Cengiz, a senior data analyst at GTTAC since 2018, will discuss terrorism trends from 2023 and areas of concern for law enforcement in the United States (US). More specifically, his analyses will focus on HAMAS and Iran-backed terror groups targeting American facilities in the Middle East, Al Qaeda- and ISIS-affiliated organizations actively involved in terrorist attacks worldwide, increasing far-right terrorism and emerging lone actor threats in the US and Europe. The Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC) is the first center in the United States devoted to understanding the links among terrorism, transnational crime and corruption, and to teach, research, train and help formulate policy on these critical issues. TraCCC is a research center within the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. TraCCC also houses the innovative and highly-respected Anti-Illicit Trade Institute (AITI).”
This event will take place on February 8 at 2 pm EST. Learn more and register here.
AI Executive Order Report Card Reviewing the First 90 Days
“On October 30, 2023, the Biden Administration issued a call to action outlining a host of requirements and deliverables for U.S. government agencies on artificial intelligence. The executive order touched on a range of AI-relevant issues, including testing and evaluation of new AI systems, developing a healthy and capable U.S. AI workforce, and ensuring U.S. competitiveness in the years to come.”
“Join CSET researchers on January 31, 2024, for a discussion of what the U.S. Government has accomplished so far, what have we learned, and what’s left to do to complete the EO’s ambitious goals.”
This online event will begin at 12 pmEST. Learn more and register here.
GP Nonproliferation and Strategic Trade Hub Virtual Launch & Demo
“The Strategic Trade Research Institute (STRI) invites you to participate in the Global Partnership Nonproliferation and Strategic Trade Hub Virtual Launch and Demo event taking place on February 27, 2024, from 9:00-10:00 am EST.”
“Please join us to learn about the main features of the Hub, how to use it, and how it can be useful and impactful for nonproliferation and export control professionals. The event will feature Andrea Viski, Director of STRI, as well as introductory remarks from the Hub’s sponsor, the United Kingdom’s Counter-proliferation and Arms Control Center (CPACC).”
International Conference, CBRNE Research & Innovation
“The last 40 years have demonstrated that both military and civilian populations could be exposed to highly hazardous CBRNE agents following conflicts, natural outbreaks and disasters, industrial incidents or terrorist attacks.”
“Worldwide, researchers, responders and industrial capacities have been commited to provide adapted response to these challenges.”
“Building on the success of the first 5 International Conferences « CBRNE Research and Innovation » which took place in Antibes (2015), Lyon (2017), Nantes (2019), on line (2021) and Lille (2022), we want to give you a new opportunity to build up or strengthen collaborative networks in Strabourg (March 19th – 21rst 2024).”
“The CBRNE R&I Conference is specifically devoted to scientific updates, responders’ feedbacks and expression of needs. It also includes workshops and demonstrations of innovative materials, technologies and procedures, according to the following themes: DETECTION – IDENTIFICATION, PROTECTION – DECONTAMINATION, MEDICAL COUNTERMEASURES, RISKS & CRISIS MANAGEMENT.”
“Looking forward to your proposals for communication and to welcoming you at Strasbourg in March 2024!”
Registration is now open for the Global Health Security 2024 conference in Sydney, Australia. This iteration will take place 18-21 June, 2024. The call for abstracts is also still open. “The mission of the Global Health Security conference is to provide a forum where leaders, researchers, policy-makers, and representatives from government, international organisations, civil society, and private industry from around the world can engage with each other, review the latest research and policy innovations, and agree solutions for making the world safer and healthier. To that end, our mission is to help foster a genuinely multidisciplinary community of practice that is committed to working collaboratively to enhance global health security and eliminate disease, irrespective of its origin or source.”
Happy New Year! This week covers reports of over 450 chemical attacks by Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the fifth anniversary of DHS’ CWMD Office, and several recent publications.
Ukraine Reports Hundreds of Chemical Attacks by Russia Since Start of Invasion
In late December, the Kyiv Post published an article explaining a post from Ukraine’s Armed Forces Support Forces Command, which “claims that Russian troops have conducted 465 chemical attacks in Ukraine since the initiation of the full-scale invasion, with over 80 such attacks in December 2023, including one grenade containing a new, unknown chemical agent…The command notes an escalating trend in the use of such weapons by Russian forces, highlighting eight chemical attacks on Dec. 19 alone.”
The article continues, explaining “The commonly used weapons include grenades like K-51, RGR, and Drofa-PM gas hand grenades dropped from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Additionally, improvised explosive devices equipped with irritant substances and artillery shelling containing chemically dangerous substances are being employed.”
“The report mentions that 28 cases involving dangerous chemicals were documented and forwarded for investigative actions as part of criminal proceedings by groups of radiation, chemical, and biological intelligence from the military units of the Support Forces Command, working in collaboration with the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).”
In case you missed it: Last summer, the Royal United Services Institute published an article on this topic, exploring the reported limited use of riot control agents and broader deployment of CW by Russia could mean in this war. The piece offers insight into Russia’s potential ogic in using these kinds of weapons in Ukraine, making it helpful in understanding this latest reporting.
DHS Celebrates Five Years of the Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Office
In late December, the Department of Homeland Security celebrated the fifth anniversary of the founding of the Countering WMD Office. In an email update from the Department, Assistant Secretary for the Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Office, Mary Ellen Callahan, was quoted saying “The threat of weapons of mass destruction terrorism is real. Five years ago, in the face of a dynamic, evolving threat environment, legislators recognized that the U.S. needed a more holistic approach to countering chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats to the Homeland…By authorizing CWMD, the legislators enabled us to enhance and coordinate the chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear detection efforts of federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial governments to improve preparedness and response capabilities throughout the United States. We look forward to continuing this essential mission to protect the American people.”
The update further explained “Congress established the CWMD Office in 2018 to elevate, consolidate, and streamline DHS efforts to protect the Homeland from weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats. CWMD serves as the DHS nexus for WMD and CBRN coordination, which includes providing direct financial and operational support nationwide to government and industry partners for full-time biological detection, illicit nuclear material detection, training, and exercises. Additionally, as part of the President’s Executive Order on AI signed in October 2023, President Biden tasked CWMD with helping to evaluate and mitigate the potential for AI to be used to develop WMDs, such as through AI-enabled misuse of synthetic nucleic acids to create biological weapons. The President directed the CWMD Office to evaluate the potential for AI to lower the barriers to entry for developing WMD and to develop a framework to evaluate and stress test synthetic-nucleic acid screening, creating a standardized set of expectations for third parties that audit AI systems to prevent the risk of abuse and proliferation by malicious actors.”
Defense Dossier Issue 38: “Pandemic Preparedness and Biodefense”
The American Foreign Policy Council’s December Defense Dossier is focused on biodefense and pandemic preparedness, featuring an article-“Parsing the Great Gain of Function Debate”-co-authored by Biodefense PhD Program alumni Yong-bee Lim and Saskia Popescu. It also includes other articles like “China’s Evolving Thinking About Biotechnology,” and “Understanding the Cyberbiosecurity Threat.” Read here.
“Virology-the Path Forward”
Rasmusen et al. recently published this commentary article in the Journal of Virology. They write in their abstract, “In the United States (US), biosafety and biosecurity oversight of research on viruses is being reappraised. Safety in virology research is paramount and oversight frameworks should be reviewed periodically. Changes should be made with care, however, to avoid impeding science that is essential for rapidly reducing and responding to pandemic threats as well as addressing more common challenges caused by infectious diseases. Decades of research uniquely positioned the US to be able to respond to the COVID-19 crisis with astounding speed, delivering life-saving vaccines within a year of identifying the virus. We should embolden and empower this strength, which is a vital part of protecting the health, economy, and security of US citizens. Herein, we offer our perspectives on priorities for revised rules governing virology research in the US.”
“Interpreting the Biological Weapons Convention – What Are “Necessary Measures” Under Article IV of the Convention?”
Sally Longworth recently published this report with the Swedish Defence Research Agency. She explains in her summary, “Article IV of the Biological Weapons Convention 1972 (BWC) requires States Parties to implement national implementation measures to prohibit and prevent the development, production, stockpiling, retention, acquisition, transfer, and use of biological agents, toxins and weapons in violation of the Convention. No definition of “national implementation measures” is included in the treaty, but there has been over 50 years of State practice in implementing this obligation, which can provide guidance on how States Parties interpret the obligations under Article IV. The Final Declarations agreed by consensus by States Parties at the Convention Review Conferences held every five years are particularly useful tools in understanding what measures are required and what, if any, development there has been in interpreting Article IV. Using legal methods to interpret international treaties, this memo first analyses the obligations set out in Article IV and then considers the interpretative value of the Final Declarations in relation to the BWC. It goes on to highlight a number of measures identified by the States Parties considered necessary in the implementation of the obligations contained in Article IV and important developments in what must be covered.”
“Vision, Needs, and Proposed Actions for Data for the Bioeconomy Initiative”
The National Science and Technology Council recently released this report from the Interagency Working Group on Data for the Bioeconomy. Its executive summary explains in part, “To realize a thriving bioeconomy, the Data Initiative identifies strategic investments and opportunities to leverage and build upon existing resources. The goal is to create an interwoven data fabric that connects data with the infrastructure and computational resources necessary to analyze, synthesize, and use those data for the widest audience. This vision depends on creation and adoption of community-driven standards, both for data and for repositories to enable interoperability and integration; training and education to build the bioeconomy data workforce of tomorrow; efforts to limit and mitigate security risks; and ongoing coordination to ensure efforts keep pace with transformations in data science, computing, biotechnology and biomanufacturing. While additional data are needed, government coordination and investment in infrastructure are also needed to make best use of the existing and anticipated data.”
Furthermore, in identifies seven Core Action areas the Data Initiative indicates requires “consistent whole-of-government coordination and investments”:
Dedicated long-term funding mechanisms for data and computational resources and infrastructure;
Standards to establish common best practices that foster and strengthen a shared U.S. bioeconomy data ecosystem;
Biodata Catalog to identify extant data and metadata;
Security practices and policies that secure the data landscape while supporting innovation;
Workforce to drive U.S. leadership in the bioeconomy of the future;
Strategically Targeted Areas for Rapid Transformation (START) to determine viability and impact and chart a course for larger investments; and
Coordination of intergovernmental investments, efforts, and resources.
“FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration Releases Global Health Security Partnerships Annual Progress Report Demonstrating Results from United States Investments”
The White House recently released this fact sheet along with the release of its Global Health Security Partnerships Annual Progress Report. The fact sheet explains in its introduction, “The Biden-Harris Administration continues to prioritize global health security as a critical component of national biodefense. The COVID-19 pandemic, as well as HIV/AIDS, Ebola, mpox and other outbreaks in recent years, has demonstrated the catastrophic impacts infectious diseases can have on health, economies, and societies, regardless of where they start. The United States partners with countries around the world to build stronger global health security capacity – the ability to prevent, detect, rapidly respond to, and recover from new and emerging public health threats and prevent their spread across borders. Partnering with countries to stop infectious disease threats at their source, including by strengthening equitable health systems in their own countries and across regions, effectively protects the health of Americans and people across the world.”
“Exploring Actions for Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness”
The National Academies recently released this Proceedings of a Symposium-in Brief: “Investing in pandemic preparedness ahead of disease outbreaks can greatly reduce the toll of epidemics and pandemics when they occur. Although several tools exist for assessing pandemic preparedness at an epidemiological and operational level, less information and fewer approaches are available to guide the prioritization of preparedness investments at the country level. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held an international, virtual symposium series in May and June 2023 to explore possible strategies for evidence-based prioritization of global health capabilities to prepare for future epidemics and pandemics. Speakers and participants discussed assessment tools for national action planning; country and organizational decision-making about funding priorities; effective approaches for disease surveillance and risk communication; governance structures that support robust and reliable systems for global health investments; and specific actions for tools and resource prioritization for preventing and preparing for future epidemics and pandemics. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussions of the symposium.”
“America Should Be More Like Operation Warp Speed”
Gary Hamel and Michele Zanini recently published this Ideas piece in The Atlantic focused on how OWS offers lessons for the rest of the government in achieving goals. They write in their introduction, “The U.S. government can achieve great things quickly when it has to. In November 2020, the Food and Drug Administration granted emergency-use authorization to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for COVID-19. Seven days later, a competing vaccine from Moderna was approved. The rollout to the public began a few weeks later. The desperate search for a vaccine had been orchestrated by Operation Warp Speed, an initiative announced by the Trump administration that May. Developing, testing, manufacturing, and deploying a new vaccine typically takes a decade or more. OWS, which accomplished the feat in months, belongs in the pantheon of U.S. innovation triumphs, along with the Manhattan Project and the Apollo moon-landing program. It’s a case study in how the U.S. government can solve complex, urgent problems, and it challenges the narrative that public institutions have lost their ability to dream big and move fast.”
“Why the World Needs Its Own Immune System”
Atul Gawande, USAID’s Assistant Administrator for Global Health, recently published this opinion piece in The New York Times. He writes in part, “This is now the pattern: one emergency after another, often overlapping, diverting focus away from longer-term public health goals. And there’s no sign of this letting up. Displacement and activities like deforestation have increased contact between humans and wildlife — and thus the incidence of animal diseases leaping to humans. (The Ebola virus, for example, has been linked to bats as a possible source of spread.) The risk of outbreak-causing laboratory accidents is a significant concern as labs proliferate and safety measures lag. On average, between 1979 and 2015, more than 80 laboratory-acquired infections were reported per year, several involving transmission beyond those initially infected, and underreporting is rife. The growing field of synthetic virology has simultaneously generated lifesaving new treatments (mRNA vaccines, for example) and made it easier for bad actors to turn infectious diseases into weapons of mass destruction.”
“But we can break the pattern. Longer-range investment in local preparedness for such events — in building what I think of as a global immune system — could reduce the threat these crises pose and even reduce dependence on foreign aid to weather them. As dangers rise, so can our capacity to get ahead of them. With the right strategy, we could use the mishaps, malefactors and shocks we face to strengthen our capacity to adapt. This is not about developing resilience (the ability to recover from crisis) or robustness (the ability to resist crisis). It is about developing what the writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb has called antifragility — the ability to become stronger from crisis.”
“The OPCW and Civil Society: Considerations on Relevant Themes and Issues”
Alexander Ghionis recently published this working paper for CBWNet. He explains in its executive summary, “This paper explores some key elements of the relationship between the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and civil society, with the specific and limited aim of supporting ongoing discussions being held within the OPCW regarding options and mechanisms to enhance that relationship. The paper is designed to be practical, providing readers from State Parties, the Technical Secretariat, civil society, and other stakeholders, with some initial perspectives, ideas, and considerations that could inform discussions.”
The paper addresses “The composition and focus of accredited civil society organisations (CSOs); How CSOs have engaged with the OPCW so far and what alternative modes of engagement may be beneficial; and, What foundational aspects can strengthen the relationship between the OPCW and civil society moving forward.”
“The Altered Nuclear Order in the Wake of the Russia-Ukraine War”
Rebecca Davis Gibbons, Stephen Herzog, Wilfred Wan, and Doreen Horschig recently published this research paper with the American Academy of Arts & Sciences. They explain in their executive summary: “On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded nonnuclear-armed Ukraine and leveraged threats with its nuclear arsenal as a “shield” to deter third-party intervention. The well-publicized horrors on the ground in Ukraine are, unfortunately, not the only consequences of Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor. The war is having unmistakable effects on how governments, scholars, and the public think about nuclear arms. Not only has Moscow reintroduced the world to the often-unsavory realities of nuclear deterrence, but its suspension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) have been setbacks for arms control and disarmament. Meanwhile, vulnerable states around the globe may be further incentivized to develop nuclear weapons or seek protection from nuclear-armed patrons to avoid being invaded like Ukraine.”
“Given these changing geopolitical circumstances, how might the Russian war on Ukraine affect the global nuclear order? The authors in this publication conclude that the United States and the broader international community must now more seriously engage with alternatives to traditional arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament endeavors. Specifically, the authors discuss the increasing prominence of approaches such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW)—popularly known as the Nuclear Ban—and risk reduction measures. They assess whether these initiatives can have an impact in reducing nuclear dangers. Additionally, they examine temptations for states to pursue more forceful counterproliferation measures and describe the risks of doing so.”
NEW: “When Medicine Stops Saving Us: The Antimicrobial Resistance Crisis”
“Interim Dean Abel Valenzuela and the UCLA Division of Social Sciences present an exclusive screening of a new documentary from the team behind the award winning NETFLIX documentary, RESISTANCE. This genre-bending short film, HOLOBIOME, features the harrowing story of UCLA graduate Bradley Burnam’s personal encounter with a deadly superbug. Through a variety of creative elements, HOLOBIOME examines the need for innovation in AMR and questions the overall human relationship with infectious disease and the microbial world. The screening will be followed by an interdisciplinary panel discussing the looming AMR crisis through the lenses of sociology, public policy, industry, and public health.”
This event will be moderated by Biodefense PhD Program alumna Jomana Musmar. It will take place on January 22, at 5 pm PST. Learn more and register here.
NEW: AI Executive Order Report Card Reviewing the First 90 Days
“On October 30, 2023, the Biden Administration issued a call to action outlining a host of requirements and deliverables for U.S. government agencies on artificial intelligence. The executive order touched on a range of AI-relevant issues, including testing and evaluation of new AI systems, developing a healthy and capable U.S. AI workforce, and ensuring U.S. competitiveness in the years to come.”
“Join CSET researchers on January 31, 2024, for a discussion of what the U.S. Government has accomplished so far, what have we learned, and what’s left to do to complete the EO’s ambitious goals.”
This online event will begin at 12 pmEST. Learn more and register here.
International Conference, CBRNE Research & Innovation
“The last 40 years have demonstrated that both military and civilian populations could be exposed to highly hazardous CBRNE agents following conflicts, natural outbreaks and disasters, industrial incidents or terrorist attacks.”
“Worldwide, researchers, responders and industrial capacities have been commited to provide adapted response to these challenges.”
“Building on the success of the first 5 International Conferences « CBRNE Research and Innovation » which took place in Antibes (2015), Lyon (2017), Nantes (2019), on line (2021) and Lille (2022), we want to give you a new opportunity to build up or strengthen collaborative networks in Strabourg (March 19th – 21rst 2024).”
“The CBRNE R&I Conference is specifically devoted to scientific updates, responders’ feedbacks and expression of needs. It also includes workshops and demonstrations of innovative materials, technologies and procedures, according to the following themes: DETECTION – IDENTIFICATION, PROTECTION – DECONTAMINATION, MEDICAL COUNTERMEASURES, RISKS & CRISIS MANAGEMENT.”
“Looking forward to your proposals for communication and to welcoming you at Strasbourg in March 2024!”
Registration is now open for the Global Health Security 2024 conference in Sydney, Australia. This iteration will take place 18-21 June, 2024. The call for abstracts is also still open. “The mission of the Global Health Security conference is to provide a forum where leaders, researchers, policy-makers, and representatives from government, international organisations, civil society, and private industry from around the world can engage with each other, review the latest research and policy innovations, and agree solutions for making the world safer and healthier. To that end, our mission is to help foster a genuinely multidisciplinary community of practice that is committed to working collaboratively to enhance global health security and eliminate disease, irrespective of its origin or source.”
Vote: 2023 Arms Control Person(s) of the Year Nominees
“Since 2007, the independent, nongovernmental Arms Control Association has nominated individuals and institutions that have, in the previous 12 months, advanced effective arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament solutions and raised awareness of the threats posed by mass casualty weapons.”
“In a field that is often focused on grave threats and negative developments, the Arms Control Person(s) of the Year contest aims to highlight several positive initiatives—some at the grassroots level, some on the international scale—designed to advance disarmament, nuclear security, and international peace, security, and justice.”
“Voting will take place between Dec. 8, 2023, and Jan. 11, 2024. The results will be announced on Jan. 12, 2024. Follow the discussion on social media using the hashtag #ACPOY2023.”
Happy first day of winter! This week we are covering updates on Russia’s actions in Ukraine, anthrax outbreaks in parts of Africa, efforts to get the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act reauthorized, and OpenAI’s plan to manage threats posed by its AI platforms. This is the last issue of the Pandora Report for 2023. We will see you next year but, until then, have a happy rest of the holiday season!
Russia Tear Gases UkrainianForces
Recent reporting from CNN explained that, in addition to using wave after wave of convicts-turned-recruits, Russia has increasingly begun to use CS gas on Ukrainian forces: “Those fighting in besieged Ukrainian trenches say they now face another threat: the use of gas as a weapon. Nine incidents have been recorded in recent weeks in this area, one Ukrainian combat medic told CNN, in which a caustic and flammable gas had been dropped by drones onto Ukrainian lines, causing one fatality. The gas is used to cause panic and followed by conventional shelling or drone attacks, soldiers impacted said…A Ukrainian intelligence official told CNN the substance deployed by the Russians was a form of CS gas.”
CS (chlorobenzylidenemalononitrile) gas, commonly referred to colloquially as tear gas, is used as a riot control agent. According to the CDC, these agents “…are chemical compounds that temporarily make people unable to function by causing irritation to the eyes, mouth, throat, lungs, and skin.” Use of these agents in war is prohibited under the Chemical Weapons Convention.
The same CNN report later explained that “Two soldiers who survived a gas attack showed CNN medical reports indicating they had been poisoned. “At first I saw smoke,” one told CNN. “We ran out from the trench and the gas suddenly caught fire. The trench was in flames. This gas burns, blinds you, you can’t breathe, shoots down your throat immediately. We didn’t even have a second.”‘
“The alleged use of chemical agents on the battlefield marks another sign of the brutality and mendacity of Russia’s renewed fight for the terrain it lost. Ukraine had hoped for greater advances during the summer toward the Azov Sea, yet now must defend its minor gains.”
Russian Troops Reportedly Dying from “Mouse Fever”
Russian troops in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region are reportedly suffering an outbreak of “mouse fever,” a hemorrhagic fever. Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (HUR) recently reported that “dissatisfaction is growing in the units of the Russian occupation army due to inadequate provision of winter clothing and a complete lack of medical care,” likely contributing to the rapid spread of this disease.
The Kyiv Post also explained that HUR reports that complaints about the outbreak on the front lines fell on deaf ears, with Russian leadership viewing them as “…another manifestation of attempts to avoid combat operations.” HUR has also reported that the disease initially presents with flu-like symptoms, and that it is a viral disease transmitted to humans from rodents via contact with bodily fluids. As the same Kyiv Post article explains, “Symptoms of mouse fever include severe headache, fever up to 40 degrees, rashes and redness, low blood pressure, hemorrhages in the eyes, nausea, and vomiting several times a day. The disease also affects the kidneys, a person infected with mouse fever experiences intense low back pain and will have serious difficulty urinating.”
HUR’s reporting on the outbreak did not identify a specific pathogen, though it did suggest this could be hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), driving online speculation that this outbreak was caused by a hantavirus despite some outlets reporting it was caused by the bacterial rat-bite fever. The WHO explains that HFRS is “…an acute interstitial nephropathy characterized by high fever and varying degrees of renal insufficiency and hemorrhage. HFRS is caused by viruses belonging to the old world lineage of the Hantavirus genus of the family Bunyaviridae.”
The WHO further explains that “Various haemorrhagic fevers with a very similar syndrome have been reported throughout Europe and Asia, notably HFRS in the former Soviet Union, Songo fever in China, epidemic nephritis or epidemic haemorrhagic fever in Eastern Europe and Japan, and Hantaan virus in Korea. Several rodents and other small mammals harbor hantaviruses, and in urban areas, where rodent control is feasible, efforts can be made to reduce contact between humans and rodent excreta.”
Regardless of what is causing this outbreak, this is a tale as old as time. War and disease go hand-in-hand, highlighting the importance of maintaining sanitary practices, particularly when turning to trench warfare. Russia’s military has historically struggled with maintaining sanitary conditions, as noted by Amnesty International in the late 1990s and Russia’s own inspectors in the early 2010s, all of which has conicided with persistent challenges in professionalizing the military and maintaining supply lines during the current conflict.
Five African Countries Report Anthrax Outbreaks
The WHO has confirmed that five countries in eastern and southern Africa are experiencing outbreaks of anthrax, with at least 20 related deaths reported since the start of 2023. There are currently over 1,160 presumed anthrax cases in Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, though only 35 have been confirmed by laboratory testing. Zambia is currently fighting its largest anthrax outbreak since 2011, with nine of its ten provinces impacted. Though experts say this all is not unusual nor unreasonable, it is notable that, in Uganda, many of the presumed cases have tested negative for anthrax, potentially indicating a different disease is circulating.
The WHO explained in its December 11 press release on the matter that, “The outbreaks are presenting varied patterns in the affected countries. In Kenya, three deaths have been reported this year compared with zero fatalities from over 200 suspected cases in 2022. While the disease is endemic in animals in Malawi, the country reported its first ever human case this year. Human anthrax cases have been reported in three districts in Uganda, with 13 deaths compared with two deaths in 2022. The high case fatality ratio is due to patients reporting late to health facilities. In Zimbabwe, human cases have been reported every year since 2019, underscoring the need for stronger preventive actions.”
“Joint multidisciplinary teams have deployed at country level to support assessments, identify gaps and take measures to strengthen the outbreak response. WHO is also working closely with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), United Nations Environment Programme and World Organisation for Animal Health to coordinate response in the affected countries leveraging the One Health Platforms…The outbreaks are likely being driven by multiple factors, including climatic shocks, food insecurity, low risk perception and exposure to the disease through handling the meat of infected animals.”
115 Organizations Urge Congress to Reauthorize PAHPA
A list of 115 organizations is formally calling on Congress to reauthorize the bipartisan Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA), according to a press release from the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee. PAHPA expired on September 30 and has yet to be reauthorized by Congress, though the HELP Committee did pass legislation to reauthorize it in a 17-3 vote this summer.
The HELP Committee explained in its statement “Congress first enacted PAHPA in 2006, largely to address the failures of the federal response following Hurricane Katrina. The legislation sought to support states, local governments, and hospitals so they would be better prepared for future emergencies. It established the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA). It also made improvements to the National Disaster Medical System and other resources to improve medical surge capacity during an emergency. PAHPA was previously reauthorized on a bipartisan basis in 2013 and 2019.”
A list of the 115 organizations involved is available at the link above.
OpenAI Unveils Plan for Managing AI Dangers
OpenAI, the company perhaps most famous for its ChatGPT chatbot, recently announced how it plans to prepare for what it believes to be potential threats posed by the technology it develops. A recent article from The Washington Post explains the plan, reading “OpenAI’s “Preparedness” team, led by MIT AI professor Aleksander Madry, will hire AI researchers, computer scientists, national security experts and policy professionals to monitor the tech, continually test it and warn the company if it believes any of its AI capabilities are becoming dangerous. The team sits between OpenAI’s “Safety Systems” team, which works on such existing problems as infusing racist biases intoAI, and the company’s “Superalignment” team, which researches how to ensure AI doesn’t harm humans in an imagined future where the tech has outstripped human intelligence completely.”
“The preparedness team is hiring national security experts from outside the AI world who can help OpenAI understand how to deal with big risks. It is beginning discussions with organizations, including the National Nuclear Security Administration, which oversees nuclear technology in the United States, to ensure the company can appropriately study the risks of AI, Madry said.”
“The team will monitor how and when OpenAI’s tech can instruct people to hack computers or build dangerous chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, beyond what people can find online through regular research. Madry is looking for people who “really think, ‘How can I mess with this set of rules? How can I be most ingenious in my evilness?’”
“Dr. Jomana Musmar, MS, PhD – Designated Federal Officer and Executive Director – PACCARB”
Check out this conversation with Biodefense PhD Program alumna Jomana Musmar on the Progress, Potential, and Possibilities YouTube channel: “Dr. Jomana Musmar, MS, PhD, is the Designated Federal Officer and Executive Director of the Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria ( https://www.hhs.gov/ash/advisory-comm… ), and Senior Public Health Advisor within the Office of Infectious Diseases and HIV/AIDS Policy ( https://www.hhs.gov/oidp/index.html ), at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).”
“The Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria ( PACCARB – https://www.hhs.gov/ash/advisory-comm… ) is a US federal advisory committee that provides advice, information, and recommendations to the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS Secretary). The council supports and evaluates U.S. government activities focused on fighting antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in human health, animal health, and environmental health. Using this One Health approach, members of the PACCARB have expertise from a range of backgrounds, including academia, industry, public health, advocacy, veterinary, and agricultural production.”
“Dr. Musmar has been managing the PACCARB since its establishment in 2015, during which time she has hosted 24 public meetings and overseen the development of seven reports providing recommendations on a range of issues related to antimicrobial-resistance (AMR) for both human and animal health.”
“Dr. Musmar has over 10 years of Federal Advisory Committee experience, with a focus on the areas of public health, biodefense, and AMR. Her graduate degrees include a Master’s in Biomedical Science Policy from Georgetown University School of Medicine and a Doctorate in Biodefense and Homeland Security from George Mason University.”
“The Health Security Outcomes of APEC and the Biden-Xi Dialogue”
Recent Biodefense MS grad Sophie Hirshfield just published this piece for CSIS, addressing key global health questions following the APEC summit and Biden-Xi meeting. She explains in her introduction, “From November 14 to 16, leaders from the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group met in San Francisco to discuss promoting trade and economic growth across the Pacific region. On the sidelines of the forum, Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping convened for their first in-person meeting in a year. While the meetings provided an opportunity to keep public health priorities on the diplomatic agenda, they led to few meaningful new commitments on U.S.-China health security cooperation.”
“Public Health Agencies Are Using AI Chatbots to Ease Workloads. Is It a Good Idea?”
Biodefense PhD Student Kimberly Ma recently published this piece with The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. In it, she explains in part, “There’s a real risk that large-language models like ChatGPT contribute to online disinformation and misinformation. In a call earlier this year for the safe and ethical use of AI, the World Health Organization (WHO) worried that AI responses “can appear authoritative and plausible to an end user” but be “completely incorrect or contain serious errors, especially for health-related” matters. Similarly, the organization warned AI may be “misused to generate and disseminate highly convincing disinformation in the form of text, audio or video content that is difficult for the public to differentiate from reliable health content.” Just as media organizations have been caught publishing AI-generated content riddled with inaccuracies, public health workers need to ensure they are not accidentally producing well-intentioned deliverables with critical errors. And in an environment when adversarial countries, antivaxxers, and politicians operate individually or in networks to spread disinformation online, public health agencies will be up against bad actors with the same technology they have.”
“Preparing for the Next Pandemic Response Through Strengthened Collaboration”
Donnel Harvin, a member of the Schar School faculty, recently co-authored this white paper for NEMA: “This report synthesizes the insights from the National Emergency Management Association (NEMA) Pandemic Workshop hosted in June of 2023. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded the project. The workshop brought together emergency management directors and state public health officers from eight states to discuss their collaborative response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the very early phases of the response, January 2020 – January 2022. The particular focus was on the identification of friction points, successes, and opportunities for increased collaboration. Federal partners were invited to discuss issues with federal integration into state COVID-19 response efforts. The discussions highlighted a range of complex issues encompassing roles and authorities, data collection and sharing, equity concerns, and communication, with an emphasis on state and local levels as well as rural and urban experiences.”
“Advancing Governance Models for Frontier for AIxBIO: Key Takeaways and Action Items from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security Metting with Industry, Government, and NGOs, 29 November 2023”
Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security recently published a “…summary of high-level findings that identify concrete next steps needed following its recent convening of leading AI labs, executive branch officials, and biosecurity experts…” that “was informed by discussions during a not-for-attribution meeting hosted by the Center. The meeting was attended by around 50 participants, including those from 6 different leading AI companies as well as government officials from the White House and several government agencies with responsibility for managing potential AIxBio risks.”
The report calls for “…the creation of an ongoing public-private forum to facilitate the sharing of important information related to biosecurity risks; a regulatory framework that defines mandatory practices, reporting, and oversight of highly capable AI models; and a legal accountability framework to incentivize developers and deployers of models to adequately address emergent risks.”
“Generative AI and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Will AI Lead to Proliferation?”
Ian Stewart unpacks potential proliferation threats posed by LLMs in this Medium post, writing in part “Large Language Models (LLMs) caught popular attention in 2023 through their ability to generate text based on prompts entered by the user. LLMs have also proven capable of generating code, summarizing text, and adding structure to unstructured text, among others. There remain questions around the real-world usefulness of LLMs in many domains, particularly given some of the difficulties in solving limitations of LLMs such as hallucination. Nonetheless, some have raised concerns about the ability of LLMs to contribute to nuclear, chemical and biological weapons proliferation (CBRN). Put simply, could a person learn enough through an interaction with an LLM to produce a weapon? And if so, would this differ from what the individual could learn by scouring the internet?”
“Poll: Voters Support Bringing EU-Style AI Regulations to the US, Prioritizing Safety Over Speed in Research”
New from the Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute: “A new poll conducted by the Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute (AIPI) shows that the American public supports the passage of the European Union’s AI Act by nearly a 4:1 margin, and 64% support similar regulation in the United States.”
“The survey showed strong public support for a slowdown of AI research and skepticism of tech companies; respondents decisively back federal regulation that curbs rapid AI research and development by private companies. By a 2:1 margin, respondents agree that it is the role of the government to make sure companies don’t go too fast when developing AI models. 75% say the government should restrict what private companies can do when training AI models.”
“AIPI also surveyed public opinion on risky research initiatives across AI development and dangerous virus research—particularly relevant as scientists and the federal government look to revise guidelines on potential pandemic pathogens. 83% of the public is in agreement that the federal government should implement renewed oversight protocols on research experiments using dangerous viruses. When prompted about AI being in such research, 68% say that we should be concerned that bad actors could use AI to create biological weapons.”
“Shaping the Future US Bioeconomy Through Safety, Security, Sustainability, and Social Responsibility”
Attal-Juncqua et al. recently published this article in Trends in Biotechnology: “Biomanufacturing practitioners and researchers describe the norms that should govern the growing, global field, to include safety, security, sustainability, and social responsibility. These ‘4S Principles’ should be broadly adopted so that the future of the field may provide the greatest benefits to society.”
“Stability of Pathogens on Banknotes and Coins: A Narrative Review”
Meister et al. recently published this article in the Journal of Medical Virology: “For the prevention of infectious diseases, knowledge about potential transmission routes is essential. Pathogens can be transmitted directly (i.e. respiratory droplets, hand-to-hand contact) or indirectly via contaminated surfaces (fomites). In particular, frequently touched objects/surfaces may serve as transmission vehicles for different clinically relevant bacterial, fungal, and viral pathogens. Banknotes and coins offer ample surface area and are frequently exchanged between individuals. Consequently, many concerns have been raised in the recent past, that banknotes and coins could serve as vectors for the transmission of disease-causing microorganisms. This review summarizes the latest research on the potential of paper currency and coins to serve as sources of pathogenic viral, bacterial, and fungal agents. In contrast to the current perception of banknotes and coins as important transmission vehicles, current evidence suggests, that banknotes and coins do not pose a particular risk of pathogen infection for the public.”
What We’re Watching 🍿
The Biological Weapons Convention and the Need for a Compliance and Verification Mechanism
New from the Geneva Center for Security Policy: “The GCSP’s Head of Arms Control and Disarmament speaks to three experts on biological security from King’s College London about the start of discussions by the States Parties to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) on compliance and verification. They discuss why a compliance and verification mechanism is needed, what can be learned from the previous verification efforts in other contexts, and what has changed in how verification is done since this was last discussed in the BWC framework over 20 years ago. The experts also discuss what the key elements of any mechanism will need to be, what are the most important bio security incidents, and how countries are working on their preparedness to respond to such incidents. The GCSP will be following the discussions in the BWC closely and stands ready to be a platform to bring together all stakeholders to generate new thinking to strengthen the BWC to respond to today’s bio security challenges.”
What We’re Listening To 🎧
PODCAST | Rethinking Our Defense Against Unknown Biothreats
“Dr. Harshini Mukundan, Program Manager and Scientist for Chemical and Biological Technologies at the Office of National and Homeland Security, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and visiting Scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory sat down with host and AAAS STPF fellow Adejare (Jay) Atanda to discuss her research on pathogen agnostic disease detection and diagnostics, why this is important for biodefense against unknown biothreats, the role of technological innovations in pathogen agnostic detection and diagnostics, limitations of existing technological tools, and the vital importance of public-private partnerships in transforming this field. This conversation also covered the challenges women, people of color and immigrants face as scientists, the importance of mentorship in mitigating these challenges and her own mentorship and advocacy work to educate young girls about STEM careers as a AAAS IF/THEN STEM Ambassador and guest on CBS’s “Mission Unstoppable” among other efforts.”
Poisons and Pestilence: 20 Bonus Episode: No Fire No Thunder with Alastair Hay
Check out this episode with Alastair Hay, discussing his work as a toxicologist as it relates to the prohibition of chemical weapons.
61st ISODARCO Course: Nuclear Order and International Security after Ukraine
“The war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on global security, reviving nuclear fears, undermining the prospects for arms control, and shattering many of the norms and constraints that were the foundation of European security. ISODARCO 2024 will examine the global nuclear order in light of the Ukraine war, focusing on the states, the policies and the technologies that will shape the future in a much more difficult environment. How will we cope with this more dangerous world?”
This course will take place January 7-14, 2024, at the University of Trento. Learn more and register here.
International Conference, CBRNE Research & Innovation
“The last 40 years have demonstrated that both military and civilian populations could be exposed to highly hazardous CBRNE agents following conflicts, natural outbreaks and disasters, industrial incidents or terrorist attacks.”
“Worldwide, researchers, responders and industrial capacities have been commited to provide adapted response to these challenges.”
“Building on the success of the first 5 International Conferences « CBRNE Research and Innovation » which took place in Antibes (2015), Lyon (2017), Nantes (2019), on line (2021) and Lille (2022), we want to give you a new opportunity to build up or strengthen collaborative networks in Strabourg (March 19th – 21rst 2024).”
“The CBRNE R&I Conference is specifically devoted to scientific updates, responders’ feedbacks and expression of needs. It also includes workshops and demonstrations of innovative materials, technologies and procedures, according to the following themes: DETECTION – IDENTIFICATION, PROTECTION – DECONTAMINATION, MEDICAL COUNTERMEASURES, RISKS & CRISIS MANAGEMENT.”
“Looking forward to your proposals for communication and to welcoming you at Strasbourg in March 2024!”
Registration is now open for the Global Health Security 2024 conference in Sydney, Australia. This iteration will take place 18-21 June, 2024. The call for abstracts is also still open. “The mission of the Global Health Security conference is to provide a forum where leaders, researchers, policy-makers, and representatives from government, international organisations, civil society, and private industry from around the world can engage with each other, review the latest research and policy innovations, and agree solutions for making the world safer and healthier. To that end, our mission is to help foster a genuinely multidisciplinary community of practice that is committed to working collaboratively to enhance global health security and eliminate disease, irrespective of its origin or source.”
Vote: 2023 Arms Control Person(s) of the Year Nominees
“Since 2007, the independent, nongovernmental Arms Control Association has nominated individuals and institutions that have, in the previous 12 months, advanced effective arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament solutions and raised awareness of the threats posed by mass casualty weapons.”
“In a field that is often focused on grave threats and negative developments, the Arms Control Person(s) of the Year contest aims to highlight several positive initiatives—some at the grassroots level, some on the international scale—designed to advance disarmament, nuclear security, and international peace, security, and justice.”
“Voting will take place between Dec. 8, 2023, and Jan. 11, 2024. The results will be announced on Jan. 12, 2024. Follow the discussion on social media using the hashtag #ACPOY2023.”
This week covers the FDA’s ongoing investigation into contaminated applesauce, the passing of Gao Yaojie-an activist responsible for bringing to light the extent of China’s AIDS epidemic-, and more.
Biodefense MS Graduates Riley Flynn and Sophie Hirshfield at GMU’s 2023 Winter Commencement Ceremony
FDA Leadership Says Tainted Applesauce Pouches May Have Been Intentionally Contaminated
Cinnamon applesauce pouches available Weis, WanaBanana, and Schnucks have been pulled from shelves after they were found to be contaminated with lead. Dozens of children in the United States have been sickened by the tainted products. Now, the FDA’s Deputy Commissioner for Human Foods, Jim Jones, says they may have been intentionally contaminated.
In an interview with Politico, Jones said “We’re still in the midst of our investigation. But so far all of the signals we’re getting lead to an intentional act on the part of someone in the supply chain and we’re trying to sort of figure that out.” All of the pouches in question were linked to a manufacturing facility in Ecuador that the FDA is currently inspecting.
‘“My instinct is they didn’t think this product was going to end up in a country with a robust regulatory process,” Jones said. “They thought it was going to end up in places that did not have the ability to detect something like this.”’
Politico further explained that “The FDA continues to investigate a number of theories for how the pouches became contaminated, and has not drawn any conclusions about the way the lead was added, why or by whom. The FDA says it currently believes the adulteration is “economically motivated.” That generally refers to ingredients being altered in order to make products appear higher in value, often so companies can produce a cheaper item and sell it at an elevated price.”
“The agency and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have collaborated with state and local health authorities as well as Ecuadorian authorities to trace the origin of the cinnamon in the applesauce pouches, which is believed to be the source of the lead contamination. More than 60 U.S. children under the age of 6 have tested positive for lead poisoning after consuming the pouches — some at levels more than 500 times the acceptable threshold for lead, according to The Washington Post.”
Gao Yaojie, Chinese Physician and Self-Exiled AIDS Activist, Dead at 95
Gao Yaojie, a gynecologist and well-known AIDS activist, died on December 10 in New York City. Gao, formerly based in China’s Henan province, was famous for her work to expose the outbreak of HIV/AIDS in the country in the 1990s and 2000s. The outbreak was large in scale and primarily driven by the country’s Plasma Economy, which arose because of restrictions on foreign imports of blood products in the 1990s. This resulted in blood plasma donation becoming a way for rural populations to make money in government-supported plasma donation centers. However, unsafe practices like repeated use of unsterilized needles and pooling multiple donors’ blood during the plasmapheresis allowed HIV to spread widely.
Because of the Chinese government’s efforts to suppress reporting on this epidemic, poor rural populations were left largely unaware of the dangers of plasma donation and the public in general was unaware of the severity of the crisis. Gao was one of the first to speak publicly about the outbreak, helping draw the attention of media outlets. She later told documentary filmmakers about her motivations for doing this, saying, “My driving thought is: how can I save more people from dying of this disease? We each only live one life.”
It is estimated that at least one million Chinese were infected with HIV during this epidemic, highlighting the importance of Gao’s and others’ bravery. For this, she garnered praise from the United Nations, several Western organizations, and even Hillary Clinton. This rising fame led to her being placed under house arrest in 2007, with about 50 police preventing her from traveling to the United States to accept an award recognizing her work. In response to this, she told NPR “I think they feel I got in the way of their political achievements and their official careers…Otherwise, why would they put me under house arrest? What law did I break to warrant mobilizing all these police?”
NPR further explained her activities later in life in their article on her passing, writing: “Despite pressure from Henan provincial authorities to stop publicizing the AIDS crisis, she continued her work, using all the proceeds from her books and pamphlets to support AIDS families, especially children orphaned by the disease or the many suicides that it caused.”
“Restrictions on her movement began hindering in work in China, however, and in 2009, she abruptly fled to the US, after fearing she would be put under house arrest again. Many admirers continued to visit her apartment in West Harlem, including a group of young Chinese students who kept her company in the loneliness of exile.”
‘”Many Chinese regarded her as a hero, and when they came to New York, if they didn’t know how to contact her , [sic] they would ask me. I would ask them for an email written in Chinese and would forward it to her. So far as I know, she always wrote back to those people and welcomed them to come visit,” remembers Andrew Nathan, a political science professor at Columbia University who handled much of Gao’s affairs in New York.”
“The Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention in 2023: Glimmers of Progress Set Against a Troubled Geopolitical Landscape”
Experts at CSR’s Nolan Center, including Biodefense PhD Program alumna and current faculty member Saskia Popescu, recently authored this blog post focused on the BWC’s potential for success in verification, universalization and effective implementation in Africa, and the creation of an International Agency for Biological Safety. They explain in their introduction: “For nearly two decades, efforts to strengthen the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) were in stasis, with opportunities missed and States Parties unable to agree to definite action. States Parties arrived at the Review Conference last year facing a growing biological weapons threat—augmented by rapidly converging complimentary technologies—coupled with a status quo in the BWC that was insufficient for the task. Yet nations drove a breakthrough: the consensus achieved at last year’s Review Conference proved that action is still possible despite the challenging international security environment.”
“In a world in which biological threats and vulnerabilities are exceedingly complex, there is a critical need to reinforce relationships among global experts, national governments, and civil society. Over the past two weeks, these stakeholders have met to identify, examine, and develop specific and effective measures to strengthen the Convention. An unwavering theme throughout the Meeting of States Parties underscored that preparedness and resilience are investments, rather than costs, reinforcing the deterrence by denial efforts CSR continues to promote. Although the challenging international security environment continues to hinder progress there are glimmers of genuine progress across several fronts…”
“Biosecurity in the Americas: Regional Threat Assessment”
A new from UMD’s START, co-authored by Biodefense MS Program alumna Alexandra Williams: “This publication, currently available in Spanish, provides a breadth and depth of focuses as a high-level assessment of the Central and South America regions and introduction to key topics as:
The needed expansion of understanding of the differences and areas of collaboration between the concepts of biosafety and biosecurity,
Existing international obligations to biosecurity through the BWC and UNSC Resolution 1540,
How biosecurity applies to and may differ in application across a variety of facility types that engage in biological research or production, whether private or public laboratories, agricultural or university-based facilities,
Biosecurity risks that include proliferation, bioterrorism, agroterrorism, and biocrime,
The five pillars and mechanisms of biosecurity,
Lastly, the application of biosecurity in the Central and South American regions.”
“NTI|Bio Convenes Workshop on Disincentivizing State Bioweapons Development and Use”
From NTI: “A week ahead of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) Working Group meetings in Geneva, Switzerland, NTI | bio convened a workshop on “Disincentivizing State Bioweapons Development and Use.” This two-day workshop on November 29 and 30 brought together academics, diplomats, biosecurity experts, and government policy makers to begin developing a cross-disciplinary thought and practice community to explore and develop potential disincentivizing solutions. Current thinking and policy on disincentivizing bioweapons acquisition and use is underdeveloped—especially by comparison with the nuclear security field.”
‘“We launched this effort because we see the need for more rigorous thinking on effective approaches to making bioweapons unattractive to nation-states,” said NTI | bio Vice President Jaime Yassif. “NTI’s goal is to bridge theory and practical policy-relevant approaches to develop new ideas that can invigorate international efforts to reduce biological threats.”’
Biodefense Graduate Program Director Gregory Koblentz and Associate Professor Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley both participated in this workshop. Read more about it here.
“Great Powers and the Norms of the BW Prohibition Regime”
A new working paper from CBWNet: “The United States of America and the Soviet Union were instrumental in creating the biological weapons prohibition regime more than 50 years ago. This has left the regime with a big gap in its normative structure related to the verification of treaty compliance. The working paper by Alexander Kelle and Eva Siegmann analyses great power involvement in several areas of regime implementation and concludes that none of the great powers, including China, has supported the addition of declaration and inspection norms. While recent US and Chinese initiatives could still lead to a strengthening of the regime in different areas, Russian policies, most notably false accusations against the US and others, threaten to undermine the regime.”
“AI and Biorisk: An Explainer”
A new explainer from Georgetown’s CSET: “Recent government directives, international conferences, and media headlines reflect growing concern that artificial intelligence could exacerbate biological threats. When it comes to biorisk, AI tools are cited as enablers that lower information barriers, enhance novel biothreat design, or otherwise increase a malicious actor’s capabilities. In this explainer, CSET Biorisk Research Fellow Steph Batalis summarizes the state of the biorisk landscape with and without AI.”
“Bio X AI: Policy Recommendations For A New Frontier”
Jeffrey et al. discuss the work of the Federation of American Scientists’ Bio x AI Policy Development Sprint in this piece, explaining in their introduction: “Artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to yield tremendous advances in our basic understanding of biological systems, as well as significant benefits for health, agriculture, and the broader bioeconomy. However, AI tools, if misused or developed irresponsibly, can also pose risks to biosecurity. The landscape of biosecurity risks related to AI is complex and rapidly changing, and understanding the range of issues requires diverse perspectives and expertise. To better understand and address these challenges, FAS initiated the Bio x AI Policy Development Sprint to solicit creative recommendations from subject matter experts in the life sciences, biosecurity, and governance of emerging technologies. Through a competitive selection process, FAS identified six promising ideas and, over the course of seven weeks, worked closely with the authors to develop them into the recommendations included here. These recommendations cover a diverse range of topics to match the diversity of challenges that AI poses in the life sciences. We believe that these will help inform policy development on these topics, including the work of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnologies.”
“Push to Improve Biosecurity in the Age of Genetic Engineering”
Wilmot James recently authored this opinion piece for Business Day, explaining in part “The possibility of using AI to develop bioweapons raises additional concerns, and remains uncharted territory. While the intersection of AI and biotechnology holds immense potential for positive applications in healthcare, research and diagnostics, it also poses risks if misused. AI algorithms could be employed to analyse vast genetic data sets and identify specific sequences for manipulation. This could accelerate the process of genetic engineering, allowing for the creation of more efficient and potentially harmful pathogens…To safeguard against such threats, multilateral and public-private sector agreements and regulations to govern the ethical use of AI in science, emphasising the prohibition of bioweapon development, should be established, with strong oversight committees responsible for assessing the ethical implications at the intersection of AI and biotechnology. These committees should include experts in AI, virology, bioethics and global health security.”
“Sounding the Alarm on Anti-Science”
Margaret Winchester provides background and overview of Peter Hotez’s latest book-The Deadly Rise of Anti-Science-in this piece for Health Affairs: “In his book, The Deadly Rise of Anti-Science, Hotez, professor and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, and co-director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital, paints a bleak picture of public science denial during the pandemic, embedded in historic context. He tells the story of systematic anti-science efforts from his view in the trenches—and as a personal target for anti-science activists. This book, and his commentary in our December issue of Health Affairs on global lessons from COVID-19, highlight the very real effects of this movement, including lives lost, undermined public health efforts, foregone vaccinations, social schisms, and more, that will be felt for generations to come. As he writes, “anti-science now kills more Americans than global terrorism, or other deadly societal forces and social determinants.” Drawing from multiple sources, he estimates that approximately 200,000 people needlessly died in the US after COVID-19 vaccines became widely available.”
EU vs Disinfo Disinformation Review
The most recent edition of EU vs Disinfo’s Disinformation Review is now available and features multiple sections focused on Russia’s continued use of alleged US biological weapons laboratories as a bogeyman. Be sure to check it out for fantastic lines such as “If the only tool that you have is a hammer, everything looks like a biolab,” and “At a staged event, Putin mumbled out an announcement to veterans and the wider public that his regime would continue to rule over Russia after an orchestrated ritual not to be confused with an event known as an ‘election’ in the free world.”
2023 State of the Bioeconomy
From BIOISAC: “We have a lot to celebrate as we close 2023 and just over 12 months since the Executive Order calling for a safe, secure bioeconomy. Join us as we recap the activity, publications, outcomes, and – we will of course share a glimpse of the “behind the scenes” conversations from our 3 regional events and our one-day “Closing the Knowledge Gaps” event, our two-day table top training and the resulting “Going Viral: Bioeconomy Defense TTX” report, and, of course, the industry-demanded outputs from our hardware/software device security workgroup report and supplements, “Fortifying the Bioeconomy” as well as the Bioeconomy Security Questionnaire and Instrument Disposal Guide. We also have a lot left to do! We plan to share a few of our goals for 2024 and our upcoming regional events schedule.”
“Join us December 19th at 2pm Eastern-US for a live discussion.” Register here.
Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria (PACCARB) Virtual Meeting
“The Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria (PACCARB) provides advice, information, and recommendations to the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS Secretary). The council supports and evaluates U.S. government activities focused on fighting antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in human health, animal health, and environmental health. Using this One Health approach, members of the PACCARB have expertise from a range of backgrounds, including academia, industry, public health, advocacy, veterinary, and agricultural production.”
“As a federal advisory committee, the PACCARB looks to engage with the public and all AMR stakeholders. The council holds several public meetings every year both in-person and live streamed on the HHS.gov website. These meetings are open to anyone with an interest in combating AMR. See how to get involved!”
This virtual meeting will take place on December 20 from 9-4 EST. Learn more here.
61st ISODARCO Course: Nuclear Order and International Security after Ukraine
“The war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on global security, reviving nuclear fears, undermining the prospects for arms control, and shattering many of the norms and constraints that were the foundation of European security. ISODARCO 2024 will examine the global nuclear order in light of the Ukraine war, focusing on the states, the policies and the technologies that will shape the future in a much more difficult environment. How will we cope with this more dangerous world?”
This course will take place January 7-14, 2024, at the University of Trento. Learn more and register here.
International Conference, CBRNE Research & Innovation
“The last 40 years have demonstrated that both military and civilian populations could be exposed to highly hazardous CBRNE agents following conflicts, natural outbreaks and disasters, industrial incidents or terrorist attacks.”
“Worldwide, researchers, responders and industrial capacities have been commited to provide adapted response to these challenges.”
“Building on the success of the first 5 International Conferences « CBRNE Research and Innovation » which took place in Antibes (2015), Lyon (2017), Nantes (2019), on line (2021) and Lille (2022), we want to give you a new opportunity to build up or strengthen collaborative networks in Strabourg (March 19th – 21rst 2024).”
“The CBRNE R&I Conference is specifically devoted to scientific updates, responders’ feedbacks and expression of needs. It also includes workshops and demonstrations of innovative materials, technologies and procedures, according to the following themes: DETECTION – IDENTIFICATION, PROTECTION – DECONTAMINATION, MEDICAL COUNTERMEASURES, RISKS & CRISIS MANAGEMENT.”
“Looking forward to your proposals for communication and to welcoming you at Strasbourg in March 2024!”
Registration is now open for the Global Health Security 2024 conference in Sydney, Australia. This iteration will take place 18-21 June, 2024. The call for abstracts is also still open. “The mission of the Global Health Security conference is to provide a forum where leaders, researchers, policy-makers, and representatives from government, international organisations, civil society, and private industry from around the world can engage with each other, review the latest research and policy innovations, and agree solutions for making the world safer and healthier. To that end, our mission is to help foster a genuinely multidisciplinary community of practice that is committed to working collaboratively to enhance global health security and eliminate disease, irrespective of its origin or source.”
WHO Announces Proposed Members of Technical Advisory Group on Response Use of the Life Sciences and Dual-Use Research
The WHO recently announced its proposed membership of its Technical Advisory Group on Responsible use of the life sciences and dual-use research (TAG-RULS DUR). According to WHO, “As per WHO processes, there will be now a two-week public consultation period for WHO to receive feedback on the proposed TAG-RULS DUR members and set in place the modalities for the TAG-RULS DUR’s first meeting, which is planned to take place following this consultation period…The final membership to the TAG-RULS DUR is subject to the above-mentioned public consultation period and relevant WHO practices and procedures.”
The proposed membership and instructions for providing commentary on the individuals included are both available here.
Vote: 2023 Arms Control Person(s) of the Year Nominees
“Since 2007, the independent, nongovernmental Arms Control Association has nominated individuals and institutions that have, in the previous 12 months, advanced effective arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament solutions and raised awareness of the threats posed by mass casualty weapons.”
“In a field that is often focused on grave threats and negative developments, the Arms Control Person(s) of the Year contest aims to highlight several positive initiatives—some at the grassroots level, some on the international scale—designed to advance disarmament, nuclear security, and international peace, security, and justice.”
“Voting will take place between Dec. 8, 2023, and Jan. 11, 2024. The results will be announced on Jan. 12, 2024. Follow the discussion on social media using the hashtag #ACPOY2023.”
Happy Friday! This week includes updates from our program, discussion of an upcoming hearing on the death of Dawn Sturgess, ASPR’s new National Health Security Strategy, and more. We also have several recent publications, upcoming events, and professional opportunities as well, including a publication from a Biodefense PhD student and a fellowship opportunity at CDC.
Biodefense PhD Program Alumnus Named Rodel Federal Executive Fellow
Biodefense PhD alumnus and Schar School adjunct faculty member Dr. Brian Mazanec was recently selected as a member of the Class of 2023 cohort of the Rodel Federal Executive Fellowship. Mazanec is currently the Deputy Assistant Secretary and Director, Office of Security, Intelligence, and Information Management, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, US Department of Health and Human Services.
“The Rodel Federal Executive Fellowship is an intellectual and leadership professional development fellowship for senior-level career civil servants across the federal government’s executive branch agencies. For each cohort, the program selects 20 to 24 exceptional members of the Senior Executive Service (SES), Senior Foreign Service (SFS), GS-15’s, and equivalent positions from across the federal government to come together for a series of three multi-day seminars. Working with expert moderators, the Fellows study and discuss challenging texts on leadership and innovation in large organizations, the nature of democracies, emerging technologies, the American economy, and the changing geopolitical landscape. They also engage in practical, relevant leadership training focused on promoting innovation within the context of large government bureaucracies.”
Hearing Covering Death of Dawn Sturgess Set for October 14
Dawn Sturgess was a Wiltshire woman who died after her and her partner, Charlie Rowley, found a fake perfume bottle containing a Novichok agent. This incident happened months after the targeted attack against the Skripals in Salisbury in 2018 and, though former Home Secretary Priti Patel announced the hearing in November 2021, Sturgess’s family has pushed for the process to finally move forward. According to the Guardian, “At a preliminary hearing last month, lawyers for the UK government defended delays in disclosing documents, claiming that substantial redactions were needed to protect sensitive information from the “hostile state that is Russia”…The UK government has blamed the Russian state for the novichok attack, and the British police have identified three suspects wanted over the poisonings.”
ASPR Releases National Health Security Strategy
“Every four years, ASPR develops the National Health Security Strategy (NHSS) to establish a strategic approach to enhance the security of the nation’s health in times of crisis. The NHSS provides a roadmap to strengthen and adapt health care, public health, and emergency preparedness and response no matter the threat. This includes emphasis on equitable access to post-disaster health services and meeting the needs of at-risk individuals and underserved communities. The 2023-2026 NHSS includes an enhanced focus on several health care and public health challenges exacerbated during COVID-19 and other public health emergencies, including supply chain resiliency, health care and public health workforce capacity, risk communication, and health equity.”
“The 2023-2026 NHSS Implementation Plan builds on the goals and objectives of the NHSS; guides federal actions for desired outcomes; and recommends implementation activities for state, local, tribal, and territorial partners; the health care industry; public health professionals; pharmaceutical manufacturers; communities; and other stakeholders. The NHSS Evaluation of Progress examines the actions taken by the United States between 2019 and 2022. The 2023-2026 NHSS builds on the progress made between 2019 and 2022 to provide a strategic direction that can be used to better protect people in communities nationwide from health security threats in the years to come.”
This NHSS includes three overarching strategic goals: Strengthen health care and public health systems to prepare for and respond to concurrent health emergencies, including those that arise from unknown threats; Improve capabilities to safeguard and protect against an array of health security threats, including emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, especially zoonotic diseases; Ensure a resilient and sustainable public health industrial base and supply chain that can rapidly develop and deploy safe medical countermeasures (MCMs).
Read the strategy, implementation plan, evaluations, and FAQs here.
You-Whippee-Ki-Yay, UIPE is Getting a Facelift Already!
JPEO-CBRND made a very important announcement this week:
Our JPM CBRN Protection team is partnering with fashion designers to create different varieties of our UIPE FoS GP. Worn under a uniform, the UIPE protects warfighters in #CBRN environments w/o affecting performance. Stay tuned for more on this exciting project! #AprilFoolsDaypic.twitter.com/QcWoklaA7T
Other interesting ideas included revamping the 66P legacy system to include mesh panels to improve breathability. 😉 Learn more about UIPE (“you-whip-ee”) here.
“The Analytic Challenges of Shifting to Domestic Terrorism”
Biodefense PhD student Chris Quillen recently published an article in the Journal of Policing, Intelligence, and Counter Terrorism. After many years of fighting the Global War on Terrorism, the U.S. Intelligence Community is increasingly focusing on the issue of domestic terrorism. This shift in analytic effort raises intriguing questions about the most appropriate tools needed to combat this growing threat. This article addresses the historical approach and possible solutions from similar countries and organizations before proposing a broader focus on extremist movements over designated terrorist groups.
“The Origin of SARS-CoV-2: Animal Transmission or Lab Leak?”
Johns Hopkins’ Dr. Gigi Kwik Gronvall breaks down publicly available evidence of the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in this piece for Lawfare. She writes in part, “While the scientific evidence points to a “natural” emergence, it is decidedly not natural to have the conditions in place that led to this spillover event, or the very similar circumstances that led to the SARS epidemic in 2003. (In that epidemic, the market was not immediately cleared out, and samples could be taken from the civet cats and other animals sold there.) There is plenty of guidance available for how to sell and butcher animals safely, regulate markets, and crack down on the illegal wildlife trade—a global phenomenon that has a great deal of overlap with other criminal activities, including human trafficking, money laundering, and the illegal drug trade. Further research could also help improve these standards and better prepare for other viruses that could emerge in similar settings. There are many scientific knowledge gaps that need to be filled about viral evolution and bats, and more undetermined infections that might turn out to be the next pandemic need to be investigated so that researchers and policymakers can do more, earlier and better.”
“Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 at the Huanan Seafood Market”
The much anticipated China CDC article was made available by Nature this week. Its abstract reads: “SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, emerged in December 2019. Its origins remain uncertain. It has been reported that a number of the early human cases had a history of contact with the Huanan Seafood Market. Here we present the results of surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 within the market. From January 1st 2020, after closure of the market, 923 samples were collected from the environment. From 18th January, 457 samples were collected from 18 species of animals, comprising of unsold contents of refrigerators and freezers, swabs from stray animals, and the contents of a fish tank. Using RT-qPCR, SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 73 environmental samples, but none of the animal samples. Three live viruses were successfully isolated. The viruses from the market shared nucleotide identity of 99.99% to 100% with the human isolate HCoV-19/Wuhan/IVDC-HB-01/2019. SARS-CoV-2 lineage A (8782T and 28144C) was found in an environmental sample. RNA-seq analysis of SARS-CoV-2 positive and negative environmental samples showed an abundance of different vertebrate genera at the market. In summary, this study provides information about the distribution and prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the Huanan Seafood Market during the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak.”
Dr. Angela Rasmussen breaks down issues and concerns with this article, including flaws in its metagenomic analysis, in this thread.
“What Happened When WMD Experts Tried to Make the GPT-4 AI Do Bad Things”
In this piece for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Thomas Gaulkin covers an open letter recently written and signed by hundreds of leaders in industry, policy, and academia calling for “…an immediate moratorium on the development of artificial intelligence “more powerful than GPT-4,” the large language model (LLM) released this month by OpenAI, an AI research and deployment firm. The letter proposes the creation of shared protocols and independent oversight to ensure that AI systems are “safe beyond a reasonable doubt.”’
He explains that “The letter’s call for a temporary halt on AI development may not be entirely at odds with OpenAI’s own recent representations of its outlook on the issue. The company’s CEO, Sam Altman, recently said “we are a little bit scared of this” and has himself called for greater regulation of AI technologies. And even before the world reacted to GPT-4 and ChatGPT’s release, OpenAI’s creators appear to have been sufficiently concerned about the risks of misuse that they organized months of testing dedicated to identifying the worst things that the AI might be used for—including the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.“
“Ready or Not: Protecting the Public’s Health from Diseases, Disasters, and Bioterrorism”
From Trust for America’s Health: “Ready or Not: Protecting the Public’s Health from Diseases, Disasters, and Bioterrorism, has tracked the nation’s public health emergency preparedness since 2003. This twentieth edition of the report is as critical to policymakers now as it has ever been. The report is designed to give policymakers at all levels of government actionable data and recommendations with which they can target policies and spending to strengthen their jurisdiction’s emergency preparedness. The report’s 10 key public health preparedness indicators give state officials benchmarks for progress, point out gaps within their states’ all-hazards preparedness, and provide data to compare states’ performances against similar jurisdictions.”
Lessons From the COVID War: An Investigative Report
Beyond the Pandemic: Addressing Attacks on Researchers and Health Professionals
From the National Academies: “Last fall, the Committee on Human Rights (CHR) held a webcast series, Silencing Scientists and Health Workers during the Pandemic, which examined threats and attacks against science and health professionals connected to their work to combat the spread of COVID-19, as well as related implications for internationally-protected human rights.”
“On April 11 (3:00-4:15 pm ET), the CHR will host a webcast to mark the launch of the webcast series’ Proceedings-in Brief. This event will gather experts to explore practical steps that scientists, researchers, and health professionals are taking to protect themselves and their colleagues from targeting—including violence, harassment, and other attacks.”
Brain-Computer Interfaces Webinar Series, Part 2: BCIs in the Context of International Security: Military Uses, Applications and Risks
From UNIDIR: “Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) are technical means and systems that provide direct links and communication between the brain and external devices. BCIs have been used for decades in the medical field, mainly in rehabilitation, including by the armed forces to support the recovery of injured servicemembers. Increasingly, however, the interest in the uses of BCIs has grown in scope, with novel applications exploring ways to enhance physical and cognitive functions in soldiers and weapon systems operators. Research areas include leveraging BCIs to monitor cognitive workload and performance, to enhance learning, to improve training, sensory and decision-making skills, as well as to enable remote direct control of weapon systems. Other areas of research explore convergences with the field of artificial intelligence, including using information and signal from the brain to train artificial intelligence systems.”
“BCIs can have a highly disruptive impact for the future of warfare, with significant legal and ethical consequences that deserve closer analysis.”
“UNIDIR is organizing a webinar series to unpack emerging questions related to the uses of brain-computer interfaces in the context of warfare and international security.”
This event will take place virtually on April 12 from 2-3 pm CEST. Register here.
Nobel Prize Summit-Truth, Trust and Hope
Taking place May 24-26 this year in DC and virtually, this Nobel Prize Summit asks “How can we build trust in truth, facts and scientific evidence so that we can create a hopeful future for all?”
“Misinformation is eroding our trust in science and runs the risk of becoming one of the greatest threats to our society today.”
“Join us at this years’ Nobel Prize Summit which brings together laureates, leading experts and you in a conversation on how we can combat misinformation, restore trust in science and create a hopeful future.”
Gordon Research Conference: Cross-Cutting Science Facilitating Collaboration Across the Threat-Science Research Community
“The Nonproliferation, Counterproliferation and Disarmament Science GRC is a premier, international scientific conference focused on advancing the frontiers of science through the presentation of cutting-edge and unpublished research, prioritizing time for discussion after each talk and fostering informal interactions among scientists of all career stages. The conference program includes a diverse range of speakers and discussion leaders from institutions and organizations worldwide, concentrating on the latest developments in the field. The conference is five days long and held in a remote location to increase the sense of camaraderie and create scientific communities, with lasting collaborations and friendships. In addition to premier talks, the conference has designated time for poster sessions from individuals of all career stages, and afternoon free time and communal meals allow for informal networking opportunities with leaders in the field.”
This conference will take place July 9-14 in Ventura, CA. Learn more and register here.
CDC Laboratory Leadership Service Application Open
The CDC’s Laboratory Leadership Services (LLS) program is currently accepting applications through June 1. Designed as a companion to the Epidemic Intelligence Service, this service was launched in 2015 and aims to train lab-oriented public health professionals. “The LLS fellowship provides a one-of-a-kind training experience for laboratory scientists who are ready to apply their expertise inside and outside of the lab, ultimately preparing them to be the next generation of public health laboratory leaders who work to protect public health. Fellows conduct cutting-edge research, support rapid response to disasters and disease outbreaks, help investigate emerging health threats, and enhance the laboratory systems and practices that are essential for public health. LLS seeks laboratory scientists looking to take their careers to the next level while doing work that delivers real benefits to communities across the country.” Learn more and apply here.
Call for Papers: “Training Programmes To Counter Current And Emerging Biological And Chemical Proliferation Risks: Themes, Practices, And Lessons Learnt”
From the Journal of Strategic Trade Control: “The purpose of this call for papers is to facilitate inter-disciplinary exchange regarding the implementation of training to counter emerging chemical and biological proliferation challenges. In particular, the call welcomes contributions in the form of JOSTC articles on the processes, mechanisms, and tools for creating awareness of the following topics:
– Cross-border movement (e.g. transport, shipment) of chemical and biological materials and equipment. – Cross-border movement of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). – Trade in sensitive and dual-use chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) materials and equipment. – Strategic trade control regimes of relevance to disarmament and non-proliferation. – Information security, data sharing, and cybersecurity challenges to CBRN non-proliferation. – Due diligence and risk management initiatives to safeguard global supply chains against misuse and diversion.
Information about this call is available on the JoSTC webpage and the full description of the call can be accessed here. The deadline for paper submission is 2 October 2023.”
Weekly Trivia Question
You read the Pandora Report every week and now it’s time for you to show off what you know! The first person to send the correct answer to biodefense@gmu.edu will get a shout out in the following issue (first name last initial). Our question this week is: “The Forced Evolutionary Virus was developed by the the West Tek Corporation’s NBC Division in what popular video game franchise?”
Shout out to Daniel G. for correctly answering last week’s trivia. Our question was: “This well-known Irish-born American cook is thought to have infected as many as 122 people with typhoid fever and was the first person in the US identified as an asymptomatic carrier of the bacteria that cause the disease-Salmonella typhi. What was her legal name?” The answer is Mary Mallon, who became popularly known as Typhoid Mary.
The year of the rabbit is off to one heck of a start. This week we cover COVID-19’s spread in China as the Party increasingly cracks down on Zero-COVID protesters, growing concern amount H5N1 in mammals, new insight into the history of the plague, and more. Several new publications are listed, including a fresh book from Ed Regis about the history of the Pacific Ocean Biological Survey Program and multiple works on misinformation’s impact on COVID-19 responses. As always, we round out with events and announcements, including multiple great upcoming professional opportunities. Happy Friday!
COVID-19 Multiplying Like Rabbits in China
China’s CDC claimed this week that cases of critically ill COVID-19 patients are down 72% from a peak earlier this month in the country, with daily deaths of hospitalized COVID-19 patients down 79% as well. This comes as Wu Zunyou, Chief Epidemiologist at China CDC, claims that 80% of the country’s 1.4 billion people have already been infected. This seems like an effort to indicate that a rebound is unlikely in the coming months amid concerns that the new year travel season will cause further spread and deaths. Just last week, China claimed to have 60,000 COVID-19 deaths in the month since it rolled back its notorious Zero-COVID policies, a number far below the one million some models estimated the country will suffer this winter.
However, CNBC notes, “…some experts said that figure probably vastly undercounts the full impact, as it excludes those who die at home, and because many doctors have said they are discouraged from citing Covid as a cause of death.” This understanding better aligns with reports of over-crowded funeral homes and crematoriums, and reports of coffin makers and funeral decoration companies repeatedly selling out of their products amid the spread. Because of these discrepancies, many are doubtful of the government’s official statistics.
At the same time, reports of Zero-COVID protesters being arrested or intimidated are mounting. Four women in Beijing are known to have been arrested in connection with these protests, seemingly in retaliation for their role in what has been described as “the boldest challenge to the Communist Party’s rule in decades and an embarrassing affront to its leader, Xi Jinping.” The New York Timesexplains the Party’s need to do this, writing “The party seems determined to warn off anyone who may have been emboldened by the remarkable outburst of public discontent, which was followed just days later by Beijing’s abrupt decision to abandon Covid restrictions. Since then, domestic challenges have mounted: Youth unemployment is high, the economy is slowing, and Covid infections and deaths have accelerated.”
The same piece continues, “The party is also working to discredit the protesters by casting them as tools of malevolent foreign powers. Beijing has long dismissed dissent at home — from calls for women’s rights to pro-democracy activism to ethnic unrest — as the result of Western-backed subversion. The protests against “zero Covid” were no exception: One Chinese diplomat suggested that some of the demonstrators had been “bought by external forces.”
Chunyun, the Lunar New Year travel period in China, typically lasts from mid-January through late-February, meaning opportunities for spread in rural parts of the country are far from over, despite China CDC’s apparent claims to the contrary. The continued supply of highly suspect statistics and crackdowns on Zero-COVID protesters presents a troubling situation and indicates that the Party has done anything but change its ways.
Thinking of Offering a Nice Egg in This Trying Time? Mink Again
US egg prices skyrocketed in price by more than 137% between December 2021 and December 2022, leaving many in constant sticker shock at the grocery store as this once reliably cheap staple becomes increasingly expensive. Much of this is attributed to outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1), which has been spreading in US flocks since January 2022, resulting in cullings of over 57 million birds across industrial and backyard flocks. However, over the past year, this virus has also demonstrated its ability to spread from birds to mammals, with infections found in several species in the US so far, including raccoons, foxes, seals, grizzly bears, and, most recently, minks. Naturally, this had led to increased concern about potential spread into other mammal populations.
“Transmission electron microscopic image of two Influenza A (H5N1) virions, a type of bird flu virus Note the glycoprotein spikes along the surface of the virion and as a stippled appearance of the viral envelope encasing each virion.” Credit: CDC PHIL
Nature covered this story this week, writing “Until this particular outbreak, all mammalian infections could be attributed to direct contact with virus-contaminated material, says Hualan Chen, a virologist at the Harbin Veterinary Research Institute in China. For example, animals that ingest wild-bird droppings, or that prey on infected animals, can develop the disease. But its spread between mammals “implies that this H5N1 virus may pose a higher risk to public health”, Chen says.”
A new article in Eurosurveillance discusses the alarming spread of HPAI A(H5N1) at an American mink farm in Galicia, Spain in October 2022. In it, Agüero et al. explain that the farm experienced an acute increase in its mortality rate (.77% versus an expected range of .2-.3%), prompting the facility’s clinical veterinarian to collect samples from affected animals. These animals tested positive for H5N1, and “Post-mortem examination revealed haemorrhagic pneumonia or red hepatisation of the lungs as the most notable lesions”
The authors further explain the set-up of the farm, which housed 51,986 minks, writing “The minks were housed in wire netting cages placed in rows and situated in a series of over 30 partially open barns, which provided overhead protection but not total shelter of their sides. The minks were fed with raw fish and poultry by-products, cereals and blood meal. Poultry farms and avian slaughterhouses supplying the poultry by-products were located in Galicia. Up to 10 January 2023, H5N1 poultry outbreaks have not been reported from this region.”
The outbreak soon peaked, with a weekly mortality rate of 4.3% documented between October 17 and 23. Culling measures were ordered quickly, and all minks from infected pens were culled by November 17, along with destruction of all carcasses, fomites, and waste. Of the farm’s 12 workers, 11 were in contact with infected and culled animals, though none of them tested positive and they all completed quarantine without any problems. However, as the authors note in their abstract, “The identified viruses belong to clade 2.3.4.4b, which is responsible of the ongoing epizootic in Europe. An uncommon mutation (T271A) in the PB2 gene with potential public health implications was found. Our investigations indicate onward mink transmission of the virus may have occurred in the affected farm.”
While the mink farm seems to have been thorough in its efforts to stop this outbreak, there are concerns that this new variant may be circulating in wild bird populations. Nature writes, “But Puryear thinks that because the new variant contains genetic material from gull flu, it’s likely that at least some of its genetic changes arose in gulls before entering the mink farm. This means that a strain containing those mutations is probably still circulating in the bird population. But for human populations, the outlook is still good: if the new strain did start to infect people, health authorities could probably produce a vaccine quickly, and the antiviral drug Tamiflu (oseltamivir) can reduce the severity of the disease.”
The Nature news piece concludes with, “The potential risk to wild animals is greater. Bird flu has consistently caused high levels of sickness and death among wild birds and mammals over the past year, and how the new variant will affect that trend remains to be seen. “We just simply don’t know,” says Puryear.”
Shake Ups and Mess Ups at the Department of Health and Human Services
CDC Takes Major Steps in Revamp
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky announced a number of high-level changes to her agency this week, including the creation of the Office of Health Equity and the Office of Public Health Data, Surveillance, and Technology. These are steps taken in light of last year’s internal review that found, among other things, that the agency struggled with appropriately and rapidly sharing scientific findings, communications in general, and that it needed to strengthen relationships with federal, state, and local partners. Furthermore, most of the organizations under CDC will now report directly to the Office of the Director, moving away from what has been described as a “Community of Practice structure”.
MedPage Todayexplained this leadership re-structuring, writing “Today, additional details about that leadership structure became clear. There will be a centralized leadership team of experts housed within the director’s office, which will include the director of the CDC/Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry; the principal deputy director; the deputy director for program and science/chief medical officer; the deputy director for policy, communications, and legislative affairs/chief strategy officer; the deputy director for global health; the chief operating officer; and the chief of staff.”
“These changes will improve efficiency, speed decision-making, and strengthen the communication of scientific information to the American public, ensuring CDC’s science reaches the public in an understandable, accessible, and implementable manner as quickly as possible,” an unnamed staffer told The Hill.
OIG Report Finds NIH and EcoHealth Alliance Fell Short in Monitoring and Oversight
The Office of Inspector General (OIG) at HHS released this week the findings of its audit of the National Institutes of Health’s grants to the EcoHealth Alliance. This audit was initiated because of concerns over NIH’s grant awards to EcoHealth as well as EcoHealth’s subawards to foreign entities. OIG aimed to “…determine whether NIH monitored grants to EcoHealth in accordance with Federal requirements, and whether EcoHealth used and managed its NIH grant funds in accordance with Federal requirements.”
The Office found that, “Despite identifying potential risks associated with research being performed under the EcoHealth awards, we found that NIH did not effectively monitor or take timely action to address EcoHealth’s compliance with some requirements. Although NIH and EcoHealth had established monitoring procedures, we found deficiencies in complying with those procedures limited NIH and EcoHealth’s ability to effectively monitor Federal grant awards and subawards to understand the nature of the research conducted, identify potential problem areas, and take corrective action. Using its discretion, NIH did not refer the research to HHS for an outside review for enhanced potential pandemic pathogens (ePPPs) because it determined the research did not involve and was not reasonably anticipated to create, use, or transfer an ePPP. However, NIH added a special term and condition in EcoHealth’s awards and provided limited guidance on how EcoHealth should comply with that requirement. We found that NIH was only able to conclude that research resulted in virus growth that met specified benchmarks based on a late progress report from EcoHealth that NIH failed to follow up on until nearly 2 years after its due date. Based on these findings, we conclude that NIH missed opportunities to more effectively monitor research. With improved oversight, NIH may have been able to take more timely corrective actions to mitigate the inherent risks associated with this type of research.”
Biodefense Graduate Program Director Dr. Gregory Koblentz was quoted in the New York Times‘ piece on this report, saying “Although concerns were identified by NIAID staff, the proposal was not referred to NIAID’s review committee for further consideration.” He continued, saying “On paper, NIAID staff were encouraged to ‘err on the side of caution’ in identifying and referring such proposals…but in practice it looks like they erred on the side of complacency.”
Woman Pleads Guilty to Mailing Ricin Letters in 2020
Pascale Cecile Veronique Ferrier pleaded guilty this week in a US District Court “…to sending a threatening letter containing homemade ricin to then-President Donald J. Trump at the White House in September 2020, and eight similar letters, each containing ricin, to Texas State law enforcement officials.” Ferrier, a dual French-Canadian national, holds a French engineering degree and admitted in her plea agreements that she made ricin in her Quebec home in September 2020. According to the FBI, “Ferrier placed the ricin in envelopes containing letters she wrote to then-President Trump at the White House and to eight Texas State law enforcement officials.”
“Ferrier was detained in the State of Texas for around 10 weeks in the spring of 2019, and she believed that the law enforcement officials were connected to her period of detention. In early September 2020, Ferrier used the Twitter social media service to propose that someone should “please shoot [T]rump in the face.” The letters in the envelopes contained threatening language, and the letter addressed to then-President Trump instructed him to “[g]ive up and remove [his] application for this election.” Ferrier mailed each of the threatening ricin letters from Canada to the United States. Ferrier then drove a car from Canada to the Peace Bridge Border Crossing in Buffalo, New York, on Sept. 20, 2020, where border patrol officials found her in possession of a loaded firearm, hundreds of rounds of ammunition and other weapons.”
Ferrier is scheduled for sentencing on April 26. She faces 262 months imprisonment if her plea agreements are accepted.
An Oldie, But a (Not So) Goodie: Y. Pestis Strains May Have Been Around Centuries Before Outbreaks
A new article in Communications Biology discusses how Yersinia pestis spread globally over longer periods of time than previously estimated. Eaton et al. estimate that the strain of Y. pestis responsible for the Black Death in the mid-14th century diverged from the ancestral strain as early as 1214, while the one responsible for the Plague of Justinian may have cropped up between 272 and 465–up to nearly 270 years before the epidemic began in 541. “‘It shows that each major plague pandemic has likely emerged many decades to centuries earlier than what the historical record suggests,” study coauthor and evolutionary geneticist Hendrik Poinar, director of McMaster University’s Ancient DNA Centre in Canada,” said in a statement to CNN.
The authors write in their abstract: “Plague has an enigmatic history as a zoonotic pathogen. This infectious disease will unexpectedly appear in human populations and disappear just as suddenly. As a result, a long-standing line of inquiry has been to estimate when and where plague appeared in the past. However, there have been significant disparities between phylogenetic studies of the causative bacterium, Yersinia pestis, regarding the timing and geographic origins of its reemergence. Here, we curate and contextualize an updated phylogeny of Y. pestis using 601 genome sequences sampled globally. Through a detailed Bayesian evaluation of temporal signal in subsets of these data we demonstrate that a Y. pestis-wide molecular clock is unstable. To resolve this, we developed a new approach in which each Y. pestis population was assessed independently, enabling us to recover substantial temporal signal in five populations, including the ancient pandemic lineages which we now estimate may have emerged decades, or even centuries, before a pandemic was historically documented from European sources. Despite this methodological advancement, we only obtain robust divergence dates from populations sampled over a period of at least 90 years, indicating that genetic evidence alone is insufficient for accurately reconstructing the timing and spread of short-term plague epidemics.”
“Produced by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), this digitally colorized scanning electron microscopic (SEM) image depicts a number of yellow-colored, Yersinia pestis bacteria, that had gathered on the proventricular spines of a Xenopsylla cheopis flea. These spines line the interior of the proventriculus, a part of the flea’s digestive system. The Y. pestis bacterium is the pathogen that causes bubonic plague.” Credit: CDC PHIL
It’s 90 Seconds to Midnight (That’s Not Good)
“This year, the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moves the hands of the Doomsday Clock forward, largely (though not exclusively) because of the mounting dangers of the war in Ukraine. The Clock now stands at 90 seconds to midnight—the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been.” Read the Bulletin’s statement here (also available in РУССКИЙ and УКРАЇНСЬКА).
Say “Hello” to the International Biosecurity and Biosafety Initiative for Science
The Nuclear Threat Initiative recently announced the creation of the International Biosecurity and Biosafety Initiative for Science (IBBIS), an organization “trying to prevent dramatic advances in bioscience from unleashing engineered pathogens from the lab, and wants research funders, scientists and journals to help.” NTI explains: “NTI is working with international stakeholders to establish the International Biosecurity and Biosafety Initiative for Science (IBBIS), an independent organization dedicated to reducing emerging biological risks associated with technology advances. A core element of the IBBIS mission will be to strengthen international biosecurity norms and develop innovative, practical tools and incentives to uphold them. IBBIS has a broadly defined mission, but initially it will focus on preventing the misuse of DNA synthesis technology—with the understanding that it will expand its remit over time.”
“IBBIS will collaborate with stakeholders across the global bioscience and biotechnology enterprise including academia, industry, the public health community, governments and philanthropy. These activities will complement the important work of the World Health Organization, the United Nations Office of Disarmament Affairs, and other national, regional, and international organizations. NTI’s work to establish IBBIS is rooted in the vision of a world in which bioscience and biotechnology flourish, with safeguards against deliberate or accidental misuse with potentially catastrophic consequences.”
David Matthews discusses IBBIS in-depth, including the fraught geopolitical situation it faces, in this piece for Science Business.
The Lancet Series on One Health and Global Health Security
Check out this recent series from the Lancet: “Following the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, and the on-going global COVID-19 pandemic, the One Health approach (bridging the Animal-Environmental-Human Health interface) has rapidly gained political and financial support, particularly in regional and transcontinental initiatives to improve Global Health Security, including through recently established institutions like Africa CDC and other multidisciplinary consortia. This four-paper Lancet Series explores the adoption of One Health approaches to improve health security and include an analysis of the current landscape of preventive, surveillance, and response measures in outbreak situations of emerging and re-emerging zoonotic infectious diseases with epidemic potential as well as other potential public health emergencies such as neglected endemic diseases, antimicrobial resistance, environmental and chemical hazards and natural disasters.”
“Combating Misinformation as a Core Function of Public Health”
Knudsen et al. discuss the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene’s role in countering misinformation in this New England Journal of Medicine Catalystpiece: “The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene determined that the spread of misinformation about Covid-19 was having a harmful health impact, particularly on communities of color with low vaccination rates. It established a dedicated Misinformation Response Unit to monitor messages containing dangerous misinformation presented on multiple media platforms, including social media, non-English media, and international sites, and proliferating in community forums. The Misinformation Response Unit and the Health Department collaborated with more than 100 community partners to tailor culturally appropriate, scientifically accurate messages to different populations. The Health Department and its partners were able to rapidly identify messages containing inaccurate information about Covid-19 vaccines, treatment, and other issues and to support the delivery of accurate information to various populations. Although the harms of misinformation and benefits of addressing the problem require additional evaluation, internal and external interviews suggested that the Misinformation Response Unit helped the Health Department counter misinformation and disseminate accurate scientific information to the community, thus improving health and vaccine equity during the Covid-19 pandemic.”
“Fault Lines: The Expert Panel on the Socioeconomic Impacts of Science and Health Misinformation”
This new report from the Council of Canadian Academies includes a number of important findings, including that COVID-19 misinformation cost at least 2,800 Canadian lives and CAD 300 million in hospital expenses over a period of just nine months. “Fault Lines details how science and health misinformation can proliferate and its impacts on individuals, communities, and society. It explores what makes us susceptible to misinformation and how we might use these insights to improve societal resilience to it. The report includes a model of the impacts of COVID‑19 misinformation on vaccination rates in Canada, producing quantitative estimates of its impacts on our health and the economy, and situating these within a broader context of societal and economic harms.”
“Battling Biological Threats: Complacency, Progress, or Both?”
“As 2023 opens, there is apprehension that partisan divisions and politicized health security approaches may worsen as the United States moves into a divided government of ultra-thin margins. But over the course of 2022, several important new national security directives and policies and bipartisan legislative actions significantly advanced thinking on health security and what is required to better protect Americans—proving that progress remains in reach, despite tough odds. Global health security, including biodefense, has been elevated to new prominence in U.S. national security thinking. The Biodefense Posture Review, expected to be released in early 2023, is mandated to unify and modernize DOD’s broad, comprehensive biodefense capabilities, and synchronize these efforts with those of other federal departments in line with the recently released National Defense and Biodefense Strategies. The United States must be resolute and clear, leaning forward not backwards, investing in new capabilities sustained over many years to protect Americans and the larger world against future dangerous pathogens. In a new commentary, Thomas R. Cullison and J. Stephen Morrison argue that it remains possible to bridge divides and make measurable progress to prepare the United States for inevitable future biological threats.” Read this CSIS report here.
“The Pentagon’s Chemical and Biological Defense Program Moves Towards Modernization, Yet Congress Slashes Funding”
Dan Regan discusses DoD’s seemingly mismatched objectives and funding decisions in this piece for the Council on Strategic Risks. He writes, “To achieve its mission set, including investing in emerging biotechnologies and bolstering industrial capacity to scale MCMs to novel threats, developing and investing in stand-off pathogen early warning detection, and advancing protective equipment for the Joint Force, the CBDP budget requires a nearly two-fold increase from the President’s request of $1.32 billion in FY23 to $3 billion for FY24. However, Congress unfortunately just dealt a 7% cut to chemical and biodefense programs with the FY23 omnibus spending bill, following years of declining funds for CBDP. As the FY24 Presidential Budget Request is being drafted, the Biden Administration and Congress should consider significant increases to CBDP’s budget, along with the other biodefense and global health security priorities outlined in the 10 + 10 over 10 strategy, to combat biological threats.”
“Virology Under the Microscope–a Call for Rational Discourse”
In this commentary in mBio, more than 130 authors call for a return to rational discourse about virology and its role in modern issues like pandemic response and debates over GoF research. “Viruses have brought humanity many challenges: respiratory infection, cancer, neurological impairment and immunosuppression to name a few. Virology research over the last 60+ years has responded to reduce this disease burden with vaccines and antivirals. Despite this long history, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented attention to the field of virology. Some of this attention is focused on concern about the safe conduct of research with human pathogens. A small but vocal group of individuals has seized upon these concerns – conflating legitimate questions about safely conducting virus-related research with uncertainties over the origins of SARS-CoV-2. The result has fueled public confusion and, in many instances, ill-informed condemnation of virology. With this article, we seek to promote a return to rational discourse. We explain the use of gain-of-function approaches in science, discuss the possible origins of SARS-CoV-2 and outline current regulatory structures that provide oversight for virological research in the United States. By offering our expertise, we – a broad group of working virologists – seek to aid policy makers in navigating these controversial issues. Balanced, evidence-based discourse is essential to addressing public concern while maintaining and expanding much-needed research in virology.”
“CRISPR Technology: A Decade of Genome Editing is Only the Beginning”
Wang and Doudna discuss the first decade of CRISPR in Science: “In the decade since the publication of CRISPR-Cas9 as a genome-editing technology, the CRISPR toolbox and its applications have profoundly changed basic and applied biological research. Wang and Doudna now review the origins and utility of CRISPR-based genome editing, the successes and current limitations of the technology, and where innovation and engineering are needed. The authors describe important advances in the development of CRISPR genome-editing technology and make predictions about where the field is headed. They also highlight specific examples in medicine and agriculture that show how CRISPR is already affecting society, with exciting opportunities for the future. —DJ”
“Zombie Viruses from the Arctic”
Jean-Michel Claverie’s new piece in Think Global Health discusses the threat global warming poses to global health by threatening Earth’s permafrost, potentially releasing ancient microbes. Claverie explains the evolution of this threat and how it may evolve throughout the piece, writing in part “This science fiction scenario became more realistic in 2015 when an international research team succeeded in resurrecting several viruses isolated from permafrost dating back 30,000 years. Following additional experiments, it is now clear that a significant proportion of prehistorical viruses can remain infectious for even longer periods of time. This article reviews the reality of the risks that their release might represent for the future.”
“This is the story of how the Smithsonian Institute became intertwined in a secret biological warfare project.”
“During the 1960s, the Smithsonian Institution undertook a large-scale biological survey of a group of uninhabited tropical islands in the Pacific. It was one of the largest and most sweeping biological survey programs of all time, a six-year-long enterprise during which Smithsonian personnel banded 1.8 million birds, captured live specimens and took blood samples, and catalogued the avian, mammalian, reptile, and plant life of 48 Pacific islands.”
“But there was a twist. The study had been initiated, funded, and was overseen by the U.S. Biological Laboratories at Fort Detrick, Maryland. The home of the American biological warfare program. In signing the contract to perform the survey, the Smithsonian became a literal subcontractor to a secret biological warfare project. And by participating in the survey, the Smithsonian scientists were paving the way for top-secret biological warfare tests in the Pacific.”
“Critics charged the Smithsonian with having entered into a Faustian bargain that made the institution complicit in the sordid business of biological warfare, a form of combat which, if it were ever put into practice and used against human populations, could cause mass disease, suffering, and death. The Smithsonian had no proper role in any such activities, said the critics, and should never have undertaken the survey.”
Science, Secrecy, and the Smithsonian: The Strange History of the Pacific Ocean Biological Survey Program explores the workings of the survey program, places it in its historical context, describes the military tests that followed, and evaluates the critical objections to the Smithsonian’s participation in the project.”
Jonathan Tucker CBW Symposium
“The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies cordially invites you to the 11th annual Jonathan Tucker Symposium on chemical and biological weapons issues on February 9th and 10th, 2023.” BW topics include “Revisiting the Siege of Caffa & Catapulting Cadavers” and “Governance of Dual-Use Biological Research,” the latter of which will be moderated by Dr. Gregory Koblentz. CW topics include “Lessons learned from the U.S. Chemical Weapons Destruction Program” and “The 2023 CWC Review Conference”. Learn more and register for the virtual events here.
Novel Applications of Science and Technology to Address Emerging Chemical and Biological Threats
For the first time since 2019, this Gordon Research Conference is back, this time in sunny Ventura, CA. “The Chemical and Biological Defense GRC is a premier, international scientific conference focused on advancing the frontiers of science through the presentation of cutting-edge and unpublished research, prioritizing time for discussion after each talk and fostering informal interactions among scientists of all career stages. The conference program includes a diverse range of speakers and discussion leaders from institutions and organizations worldwide, concentrating on the latest developments in the field. The conference is five days long and held in a remote location to increase the sense of camaraderie and create scientific communities, with lasting collaborations and friendships. In addition to premier talks, the conference has designated time for poster sessions from individuals of all career stages, and afternoon free time and communal meals allow for informal networking opportunities with leaders in the field.” The conference will be held March 19-24, 2023. Learn more and apply here by February 19.
High School and College Student Internship: Data Analytics for Elite Young Scholars – Biology and Medical Science Experience
“This Young Scholars Research Program is designed for Elite High School Students and Undergrad Students, who are interested in pursuing their study and/or career in the fields of biology or medical science with emphasis on advanced data analytics. You will work with our esteemed George Mason University faculty members on a specific team project. The team will consist of about three to four members of both high school and undergraduate students. The project will be assigned to the students at the beginning of the program based on the preference indicated by the students prior to the program. Two outputs will be expected from each team at the end of the programs: i) a final paper which will be published on the Center for Biomedical Science and Policy website as well as a special issue of World Medical & Health Policy; and ii) Team presentation at a symposium at which students compete for prizes.”
“During this program, students will be participating in a research project applying some of the following methods, including but not limited to biostatistics using R or Stata, data visualization using QGIS or ArcGIS, and network visualization using Gephi.”
“During this program, students will be participating in a research project applying some of the following methods, including but not limited to biostatistics using R or Stata, data visualization using QGIS or ArcGIS, and network visualization using Gephi.”
Special Call for Papers-Journal of Science Policy & Governance
The Journal of Science Policy & Governance recently announced a special call for papers “and competition to provide policymakers with a new perspective on how scientific expertise could be useful to the complex brew of 21st foreign policy and national security challenges, resulting in a special issue on Policy and Governance on Science, Technology and Global Security.” The journal invites “students, post-doctoral researchers, policy fellows, early career researchers and young professionals from around the world to submit op-eds, policy position papers and other articles addressing foreign policy and national security challenges. These include concerns about the use of nuclear or radiological weapons driven by the war in the Ukraine, hypersonic weapons, immigration driven by climate change, and emerging threats in cybersecurity and biosecurity.” The deadline for submission is April 30.
Additionally, there will be a science policy writing workshop on January 30 in addition to two webinars on February 20 and March 30 (one on Policy and Governance on Science and Technology and one on Foreign Policy and National Security, respectively) to help prospective authors prepare their submissions. Learn more about these events and register here.
Weekly Trivia Question
You read the Pandora Report every week and now it’s time for you to show off what you know! The first person to send the correct answer to biodefense@gmu.edu will get a shout out in the following issue (first name last initial). For this week, our question is “On April 22, 1915, the German Army infamously unleashed more than 160 tons of chlorine gas on French trenches near which Belgian city?”
Shout out to Morgan M. for winning last week’s trivia! The correct answer to “In 1985, an American extremist group’s compound was raided by more than 300 law enforcement officers from several federal, state, and local agencies following a three-day standoff. Among other items, officers seized about thirty gallons of potassium cyanide the group intended to use to poison water supplies of several cities. What was the name of this group?” is the Covenant, the Sword and the Arm of the Lord.
Happy (almost) Lunar New Year! This week we are covering several updates, including China’s COVID-19 cases and fatalities, a new GAO report on HHS’ oversight of high-risk research, and more. We also have several new publications this week, an interesting podcast episode on PPE, and plenty of newly-launched resources and open opportunities later on in the issue.
China Calims 60K COVID-19 Deaths as Lunar New Year Travel Surges
This week, China said it has recorded nearly 60,000 deaths linked to COVID-19 since lifting Zero COVID restrictions last month, up from the 37 it previously claimed had died since December 7. Previously, the country had reported just over 5,000 COVID-19 deaths in total since the initial outbreak of the disease in Wuhan in late 2019. The New York Times explains this, writing “Until Saturday, China had reported a total of just 5,272 Covid deaths since the pandemic began in the city of Wuhan in late 2019. That measure was narrowly defined as deaths from pneumonia or respiratory failure caused by Covid. The new figure released Saturday included those who had Covid, but also died from other underlying illnesses.”
Reuters explains this figure further, writing “China recorded 59,938 Covid-related deaths from Dec. 8 to Jan. 12, Jiao Yahui, an official with China’s National Health Commission, said at a news conference in Beijing. That figure included 5,503 people who died of respiratory failure directly caused by Covid. Another 54,435 fatalities were linked to other underlying illnesses, Ms. Jiao said.” Reuters also notes that Jiao claims China was unable to release this information sooner because it “required a comprehensive examination of hospital reporting.”
It remains unclear whether or not China has changed the way it counts COVID-19 deaths so that it includes those with underlying conditions that contributed to their death from COVID-19. Furthermore, many are still skeptical of these numbers, and concerns about a further spike amid holiday travel persist. Combined with other factors like the economic impact this has had in China, and attempts to stamp out online discourse about the Party’s handling of the pandemic by blocking “fake information” that would cause a “gloomy sentiment”, this troubling situation is continuing to evolve.
Russia Announces Criminal Case Against Unnamed US Citizen Accused of Espionage Related to “Biological Topics”
Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) announced this week it has opened a case against a US citizen, citing allegations of “…engaging in “espionage” related to “biological topics.” According to The Guardian, ““The American is suspected of collecting intelligence information in the biological sphere, directed against the security of the Russian Federation,” it added, without any further details.” Reuters reports that “The U.S. State Department said it was aware of the “unconfirmed reports” that Russia has opened a criminal case against a U.S. citizen on suspicion of espionage.” Reuters continued, writing “We’re looking into this matter and we’ll continue to monitor,” State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters on Thursday….Patel added Russia does not generally abide by obligations to provide timely notification of the detention of U.S. citizens in Russia.”
New GAO Report–“Public Health Preparedness: HHS Could Improve Oversight of Research Involving Enhanced Potential Pandemic Pathogens“
The Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently released this report discussing its study reviewing the Department of Health and Human Services’ (HHS) oversight policies and programs (“the Framework”). The report indicates that “GAO found that HHS’s Framework does not fully meet the key elements of effective oversight identified in past work. For example, the Framework does not provide a standard to help funding agencies interpret what “reasonably anticipated” means. Until HHS develops and documents such a standard, the Framework allows for subjective and potentially inconsistent interpretations of the requirement—leaving HHS without assurance the department is reviewing all necessary research proposals.”
The report, available here, discusses the GAO study and findings at length. It concludes with three recommendations–1) “The Secretary of Health and Human Services should work with HHS funding agencies to develop and document a standard for “reasonably anticipated” to ensure consistency in identifying research for departmental review that is “reasonably anticipated to create, transfer or use enhanced potential pandemic pathogens,”; 2) “The Secretary of Health and Human Services should work with HHS funding agencies to identify and share non-sensitive information with researchers, Congress, and the public about the departmental review process for research involving enhanced potential pandemic pathogens, including information on composition and expertise of those involved in the review process and how the evaluation criteria are applied,” and 3) “As HHS and CDC deliberate any changes to the DSAT program, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention should assess and document the risk posed by the limitations of the existing DSAT exemptions for public health emergencies and seek legislative authority as needed.”
“This photograph depicts a microbiologist in what had been the Influenza Branch at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), while she was conducting an experiment inside a negatively-pressurized biological safety cabinet (BSC) within the Biosafety Level 3-enhanced laboratory. The airflow into the BSC helps prevent any airborne virus particles from escaping the confines of the cabinet, and as part of her personal protective equipment (PPE), she was wearing a powered air purifying respirator (PAPR), which was filtering the air that she was breathing.”| Credit: CDC PHIL
No More Biowordscramble–NIST Releases Bioeconomy Lexicon
Biosecurity, bioenergy, bioinspired, biorisk…If you have ever started to feel like the new trend in security jargon is adding “bio” to an already existing word, this one is for you. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) recently released its bioeconomy lexicon as directed in the Executive Order on Advancing Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Innovation for a Sustainable, Safe, and Secure American Bioeconomy. NIST explains the need for this, writing “Biotechnology and biomanufacturing are increasingly vital to the global economy, including in the health care, food and agriculture, and energy sectors. Accordingly, there is a need for standardized terms and definitions to ensure a common understanding of the concepts, data, technical developments, and workforce opportunities as the bioeconomy grows both domestically and internationally.”
They continue by explaining the creation of the lexicon: “This initial lexicon was developed by NIST in consultation with an interagency working group consisting of several U.S. government departments and agencies as directed in the Executive Order noted above, and reflects consideration of relevant domestic and international definitions as well as those from private sector stakeholders. The lexicon harmonizes a base set of terms and definitions with the goal of helping to enable the development of measurements and measurement methods for the bioeconomy that support uses such as economic measurement, risk assessments, and the application of machine learning and other artificial intelligence tools. This lexicon is intended to be a living document, and NIST intends to periodically engage with government and private sector stakeholders to inform future updates to the lexicon terms and definitions as appropriate.”
“Assessing the Trajectory of Biological Research and Development in the Russian Federation”
In this piece for Joint Forces Quarterly, Dr. Gigi Kwik Gronvall and Aurelia Attal-Juncqua offer an overview of the Soviet and Russian biological weapons programs and insight into concerns about current Russian research today. Using information from a two-round Delphi study, they discuss their findings related to “Concerns About Management, Biosecurity, and Biosafety of Dual-Use Research of Concern in the Russian Federation” and “Current State of Biotech and Biological R&D in the Russian Federation.” They conclude with a number of observations and recommendations, including insight into how science diplomacy with Russia may be harmed, writing “Historically, science diplomacy has been a useful tool to keep communication lines open when security relations are fraught and has led to positive outcomes for both science and national security. However, Russia’s invasion of the sovereign Ukrainian nation makes any bilateral engagements between the United States and Russia unconscionable at this time. These actions are unlikely to be forgotten or forgiven swiftly, and sanctions are likely to persist for some time. Eventually, at an undetermined point in the future, such engagements will certainly again prove to be important for national security and scientific advancement.”
“The Myth of the “Poor Man’s Atomic Bomb”: Knowledge, Method, and Ideology in the Study of Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear Weapons”
Check out Biejan Poor Toulabi’s interesting recent article in the Journal of Global Security Studies. Abstract: “Chemical and biological weapons (CBWs) have often been characterized as a “poor man’s atomic bomb”: a cheap and easy to acquire alternative to nuclear weapons that is particularly appealing to so-called Third World states. This idea is also reflected in Western government and expert estimates that have long exaggerated the spread of CBWs, especially among states in the Global South. In this article, I break down the ways in which the idea that the spread of CBWs is prevalent and that it primarily happens among states in the Global South has come to exist and persist. By dissecting an oft-cited dataset on CBW spread, I unravel frequently occurring methodological flaws—such as conceptual confusion, misinterpretation of sources, and a bias toward proliferation charges originating from the US government—that breed and sustain inflated estimates and faulty allegations. Subsequently, I show that a dominant cognitive framework that centers on the metaphorical use of the terms “proliferation” and “poor man’s atomic bomb” primes analysts and policymakers to interpret the history and future of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons as being characterized by inevitable spread, particularly among the non-Western “Other.” In conclusion, I offer ways to counter the orthodoxies of this ideology in teaching, research, and policy.”
RevCon Reports 16 and 17
CBW Events’ BioWeapons Prevention Project recently released its RevCon Report 16 and RevCon Report 17, concluding their coverage of the recent BWC Review Conference. Report 16 discusses the final day of the conference and offers reflections on RevCon as a whole. Report 17 provides an outline and discussion of the content of the Final Document. Richard Guthrie also includes discussion of what the Final Document lacks, writing “As well as what would normally be part II of the Final Document, noted above, there were a number of other elements missing. Perhaps the most significant is any substance on the processes that will be established for the review of S&T developments and the promotion of international cooperation under Article X. Other aspects which have had broad support ended up being removed in an attempt to reach consensus included creation of an Article VII database, endorsement of the Tianjin Guidelines, and any reference to gender issues.”
“118th Congress: Bioeconomy and Health Security”
In this piece for the Federation of American Scientists, Michael A. Fisher, Sruthi Katakam and Maeve Skelly discuss opportunities the 118th Congress has to adopt policies that “help drive U.S. biotech and biomanufacturing to grow regional prosperity, deliver on conservation goals, and improve U.S. competitiveness and resilience.” They offer several ideas for improving competitiveness in the bioeconomy, safeguarding the country against biological threats, and several recommendations for appropriations. An especially interesting portion is that which is dedicated to countering global malnutrition to enhance US security, in which they write “Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, environmental impacts, and conflicts like the war in Ukraine, global rates of malnutrition are at eight percent and are forecast to become even worse. Providing life-saving treatment around the world serves a core American value of humanitarianism, and a priority for U.S. national security – the newly released National Security Strategy dedicates an entire section to food insecurity.”
“In 2021 legislation, Congress directed USAID to advance programs to prevent and treat malnutrition around the world and develop a Global Nutrition Coordination Plan. That legislation also directed USAID to create the Nutrition Leadership Council, which can help elevate nutrition programs across U.S. global health interventions and foster collaboration with other sectors, development agencies, partner governments, and local actors. These are important steps to create a centralized food security program with harmonized funding – a system to deploy a more effective response to end global malnutrition and improve U.S. national security.”
“Congress should work with the Administration to begin scaling up global malnutrition assistance in FY 2024, in accord with the 2021 legislation.”
“‘Shot In The Arm’ Shows How Disinformation Can Be Deadly”
Dr. Lipi Roy discusses Shot in the Arm, a film that recently premiered at the Palm Spring International Film Festival, in this piece for Forbes. In it, she covers core elements of the film and how it contributes to the broader conversation surrounding vaccine hesitancy and disinformation going on today, consulting experts like Dr. Peter Hotez along the way. She writes in part, “Health-related misinformation can be deadly, and we must actively combat it. Healthcare professionals need to partner with finance, fashion, sports, media and entertainment industries to promote vaccines and science in general. Celebs like Hugh Jackman, Gayle King and Julia Roberts proudly – and publicly – promoted their Covid-19 vaccinations. I also believe that a politicized problem needs a political response: elected officials – guided by health experts – need to create policies to protect the public, as they did with seatbelts, air bags and bike helmets. Lastly, people who actively promote lies about science and medicine need to be held accountable. As a physician, if I lied to patients and withheld lifesaving treatments for their thyroid cancer or lupus, I would lose my medical license. Similar punitive action must be applied to people who actively propagate egregious lies about YOUR health and safety. Shot in the Arm is really the kick in the pants we ALL need to preserve the sanctity of science and protect the most vulnerable among us. Go see this film.”
What We’re Listening To 🎧
PPE Breaches: Understanding the Risks and How to Respond
“On the podcast episode “NETEC Guidance on Breach of PPE,” five NETEC [National Emerging Special Pathogens Training and Education Center] experts in personal protective equipment (PPE) talked about breaches in PPE and the importance of preparing health care workers to assess the risks and safely respond to a breach.”
One Health Approach for Effective Biodefense and Global Health Security
“The National Academy of Engineering’s Government-University-Industry Research Roundtable will convene a webinar on January 24 from 1-2 P.M. ET to discuss the latest National Biodefense Strategy and Implementation Plan. Discussions will focus on the collaborative and transdisciplinary ‘One Health’ approach, per the Plan, for effective biodefense and global health security. Speakers (below) will explore the role of cross-sectoral partnerships as well as innovative approaches to achieve the goals and objectives outlined in the Strategy.” Learn more and register here.
National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity (NSABB) Meeting
The next NSABB meeting will take place virtually on January 27 at 1 pm EST. This meeting will cover “Draft Findings: Ensuring Biosecurity Oversight Frameworks Keep Pace with the Future of Science.” Learn more and register here.
Special Call for Papers-Journal of Science Policy & Governance
The Journal of Science Policy & Governance recently announced a special call for papers “and competition to provide policymakers with a new perspective on how scientific expertise could be useful to the complex brew of 21st foreign policy and national security challenges, resulting in a special issue on Policy and Governance on Science, Technology and Global Security.” The journal invites “students, post-doctoral researchers, policy fellows, early career researchers and young professionals from around the world to submit op-eds, policy position papers and other articles addressing foreign policy and national security challenges. These include concerns about the use of nuclear or radiological weapons driven by the war in the Ukraine, hypersonic weapons, immigration driven by climate change, and emerging threats in cybersecurity and biosecurity.” The deadline for submission is April 30.
Additionally, there will be a science policy writing workshop on January 30 in addition to two webinars on February 20 and March 30 (one on Policy and Governance on Science and Technology and one on Foreign Policy and National Security, respectively) to help prospective authors prepare their submissions. Learn more about these events and register here.
Closing the Knowledge Gaps
“BIO-ISAC, in partnership with the Department of Homeland Security and Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, will host a one-day event (with remote participation available) on January 24, 2023.”
“This gathering of thought leaders across the industry and its partners will address knowledge gaps about the bioeconomy itself. The event is expected to deliver recommendations that demonstrate the scope and breadth of industry impacts, identify specific safety needs and goals, and carve the path forward for a secure future.” Learn more and register here.
Novel Applications of Science and Technology to Address Emerging Chemical and Biological Threats
For the first time since 2019, this Gordon Research Conference is back, this time in sunny Ventura, CA. “The Chemical and Biological Defense GRC is a premier, international scientific conference focused on advancing the frontiers of science through the presentation of cutting-edge and unpublished research, prioritizing time for discussion after each talk and fostering informal interactions among scientists of all career stages. The conference program includes a diverse range of speakers and discussion leaders from institutions and organizations worldwide, concentrating on the latest developments in the field. The conference is five days long and held in a remote location to increase the sense of camaraderie and create scientific communities, with lasting collaborations and friendships. In addition to premier talks, the conference has designated time for poster sessions from individuals of all career stages, and afternoon free time and communal meals allow for informal networking opportunities with leaders in the field.” The conference will be held March 19-24, 2023. Learn more and apply here by February 19.
Call for Participants: Assess Biosafety and Biosecurity Oversight of Dual Use Research of Concern and Pathogens of Pandemic Potential
Kathleen Vogel and David Gillum of Arizona State University are conducting a research project to “…understand how dual use research of concern and pathogens of pandemic potential are regulated and how biosafety and biosecurity of this work is implemented, and if there are opportunities to improve the long-term benefits and minimize risks associated with this scientific work.” Their study includes a survey on this topic, which is accepting responses through January 27. Learn more and take the 20-25 minute survey here.
Notice of Funding Opportunity: Evidence-based Approaches to Implementing Biosafety in Diagnostic and Research Laboratories
This opportunity is offered by the Elizabeth R. Griffin Program at Georgetown University’s Center for Global Health Science and Security. Stakeholders can review this funding opportunity and submit applications here. Applications are due February 28.
Wilson Center Launches International Cooperation for Pandemic Preparedness Website
“As the COVID-19 pandemic enters its fourth year, the Wilson Center’s Science and Technology Innovation Program and the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University Law Center launched a new website today to address the changing paradigms in international health law and the critical need for strengthening global health security for the future.”
“This dynamic website, International Cooperation for Pandemic Preparedness, features renowned international health experts who break down eight critical issues the pandemic exacerbated, revealed, or created. Through video interviews and written analyses, the interactive examines what can happen at the international level when countries and international organizations work together to find needed solutions. In light of heightened demands for a pandemic treaty under the World Health Organization, expert advice on what is achievable at the international level has never been more critical to combating future COVID-19 variants and future pandemics.”
Weekly Trivia Question
You read the Pandora Report every week and now it’s time for you to show off what you know! The first person to send the correct answer to biodefense@gmu.edu will get a shout out in the following issue (first name last initial). For this week, our question is “In 1985, an American extremist group’s compound was raided by more than 300 law enforcement officers from several federal, state, and local agencies following a three-day standoff. Among other items, officers seized about thirty gallons of potassium cyanide the group intended to use to poison water supplies of several cities. What was the name of this group?”
Shout out to Tracy S. for winning last week’s trivia! The correct answer to “In 1980, a Frenchman entered a cave while visiting Mount Elgon National Park, Kenya. A week later he became seriously ill, eventually dying in a Nairobi hospital. Which cave did he enter and what disease killed him?” is Kitum Cave and Marburg virus disease.
The Pandora Report 