Welcome to this week’s Pandora Report! This issue highlights Syria’s efforts to dismantle the Assad regime’s chemical weapons legacy, political violence and the targeting of healthcare systems in the Sahel, emerging research on new H5N1 transmission routes on California dairy farms, growing concerns about AI-enabled bioterrorism, and recent recognition of GMU biodefense faculty expertise in international security and counterterrorism.
Thinking about Getting a Master’s in Biodefense?
GMU’s Schar School of Policy and Government has an upcoming recruitment event:
George Mason Facilitates High-Level Interview on Syria’s Chemical Weapons Legacy
In the aftermath of its devastating 2011-2024 civil war, Syria faces the immense task of rebuilding not only its economy and infrastructure but also repairing public trust and state institutions. Among its most urgent and controversial challenges is addressing the chemical weapons program developed under former President Bashar al-Assad, whose regime’s extensive use of chemical weapons is widely viewed as one of the most significant challenge to the global nonproliferation regime in the 21st century. George Mason University’s (GMU) Biodefense Director, Dr. Gregory Koblentz helped facilitate a high-level interview with Syrian Ambassador to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), Mohamad Katoub, published by Arms Control Today. The interview highlights Syria’s pledge to comply with international norms, dismantle remaining stockpiles, and ensure accountability for past wrongs.
Targeting Healthcare: Political Violence and State Delegitimization in the Sahel
By: Melissa Skoog, MPH from Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth and GMU Biodefense Student.
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, three landlocked countries in the western interior of Africa bordering the Sahara, collectively form the Central Sahel, a region that now accounts for more than half of all terrorism-related fatalities recorded globally, according to the Global Terrorism Index. As health systems collapse and aid organizations withdraw, available evidence suggests the conditions that enable disease surveillance, outbreak response, and civilian protection are undermined with them. The violence driving this collapse extends beyond conventional terrorist attacks. A calculated strategy appears to be underway to dismantle the relationship between state and civilian, using healthcare systems and the workers and organizations that sustain them as deliberate targets. They are targeted precisely because of what they represent: one of the state’s most visible presences in civilian life.
The Scale of the Problem
In 2023, the Safeguarding Health in Conflict Coalition documented at least 49 incidents of violence against or obstruction of healthcare in Burkina Faso, 41 in Mali, and 18 in Niger. These figures likely undercount actual incidents, as active suppression of reporting by junta governments has constrained data collection across all three countries. Nearly one in three health facilities in Burkina Faso has been impacted by violence, with hundreds closed or operating at reduced capacity. Médecins Sans Frontières withdrew from Djibo, Burkina Faso, in 2024 following sustained attacks on its health centers and offices and an operating environment that included kidnapping of aid workers, a significant development given the organization’s established practice of operating in high-risk conflict environments.
Approximately 15 million people across the Central Sahel currently require humanitarian assistance. Healthcare system degradation has contributed to population displacement: Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso collectively counted over three million internally displaced persons, refugees, and asylum seekers as of late 2023. Armed conflict has since expanded southward into Benin, Togo, and Nigeria.
The Strategic Logic
The armed group documented as targeting healthcare workers and infrastructure in the Sahel is Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliated coalition formed in 2017 through the merger of four Salafi-jihadist groups operating across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The group is designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the United States Department of State. Though designated as such, JNIM operates as a hybrid actor, using terrorist tactics while pursuing the territorial control and governance functions of an insurgency. Kidnapping of aid workers and Western nationals for ransom represents both a significant revenue stream and a direct mechanism for driving humanitarian organizations out of areas JNIM seeks to control.
Research on insurgent behavior suggests that healthcare carries significance beyond its medical function. In communities with limited state presence, health posts often represent one of the most visible forms of government service delivery. Attacks on these facilities undermine the state and begin the process of transferring civilian dependence from the state to the insurgency.
JNIM’s approach to healthcare workers and infrastructure has evolved over time. A 2025 study by researchers at FrancoPaix, the University of Sherbrooke’s conflict research center, analyzing JNIM activity across the three countries between 2022 and 2025 found a decline in direct attacks on healthcare workers alongside an increase in the group’s control over medical infrastructure through looting, abductions, and restriction of access. The researchers characterized this as a shift toward ‘co-governance’, using healthcare access as a tool of population control rather than simply denying it.
This evolution from destruction to control is consistent with al-Qaeda’s documented strategic framework following the September 11 attacks. The 9/11 Commission and subsequent analysis documented how al-Qaeda’s transnational mass casualty strategy produced overwhelming military retaliation that dismantled its Afghan sanctuary and decimated its central leadership In response, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri issued guidance to affiliates in 2013 emphasizing local embedding, civilian protection, and the pursuit of governance functions alongside military operations, a deliberate shift away from mass casualty attacks toward long-term insurgent governance. JNIM has been documented operating courts, collecting taxes, and providing dispute resolution services in areas under its influence, functions that carry particular weight in communities defined by complex ethnic and tribal dynamics where state arbitration has historically been absent or perceived as biased.
JNIM is not the first al-Qaeda affiliate to weaponize healthcare access as a governance tool. Al-Shabaab in Somalia built parallel governance structures including healthcare provision while expelling state and Western aid organizations from areas under its control, sustaining an insurgency for nearly two decades that military pressure alone has failed to defeat.
Critically, this targeting is not directed at any specific government or political configuration. JNIM has sustained this strategy across three changes of government in Mali since 2012, through military coups, and against both domestically administered services and internationally funded aid organizations. The target is state authority itself, including its local, national, and Western-backed expressions.
The Junta Paradox
What makes the Sahel crisis analytically distinctive is a second layer of healthcare restriction operating simultaneously of JNIM activity. The military governments that came to power in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger between 2020 and 2023 have taken measures that researchers and humanitarian organizations say have further constrained healthcare access.
Aid worker arrests have increased across all three countries, with The New Humanitarian reporting in early 2026 that arrests specifically targeted workers engaged in negotiating humanitarian access or documenting security conditions. In Burkina Faso, 21 NGOs had their operating permits revoked within a single month in 2024. New legal frameworks introduced in 2025 have expanded government authority over humanitarian operations. Armed escorts imposed on aid organizations, justified by the juntas as security measures, have been described by humanitarian workers as functioning primarily as surveillance mechanisms.
The result is a compound restriction on healthcare access driven by two distinct actors operating through different mechanisms. JNIM restricts access through violence, capture, and control of infrastructure. The juntas restrict access through legal and administrative means. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs recorded 3,737 security incidents resulting in 9,362 deaths across the three countries between January and December 2025.
Conclusion
Available evidence indicates that attacks on healthcare workers and infrastructure in the Central Sahel reflect a deliberate pattern rather than incidental conflict violence. JNIM’s documented shift from destroying health infrastructure to controlling it suggests a strategic orientation toward governance and population administration consistent with al-Qaeda’s broader doctrine of local embedding and insurgent governance. The simultaneous restriction of humanitarian access by junta governments through legal and administrative mechanisms has compounded the effect on civilian populations.
Alternative Sources of H5N1 Transmission Identified on California Dairy Farms
By Margeaux Malone, Pandora Report Associate Editor
A study published this week in PLOS Biology has identified new information about potential routes of transmission of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle. HPAI was first detected in dairy cattle in the United States in March 2024 and has since spread to 16 states. California, the country’s largest dairy-producing state, detected the first positive case in August 2024. As of September 2025, 771 California dairy herds have tested positive for H5N1. Following detection of high viral loads in the milk of H5N1-infected cows, the persistence of H5N1 on milking equipment, and reports of infection in dairy workers following eye splashes with milk, the consensus has been that direct contact with unpasteurized milk is likely the predominant method of H5N1 transmission in cows. However, transmission routes between dairy cows and from cows to humans have been difficult to evaluate fully due to limited sampling data from affected farms. Seeking to address that gap, researchers led by Emory University sampled air, wastewater, and milk on 14 H5N1-positive California dairy farms, identifying several transmission routes beyond contaminated milking equipment.
The study found extensive environmental contamination of H5N1 on the affected farms including in milking parlor air samples and farm wastewater at multiple sites on multiple days. Both small aerosols and larger particles were found during milking, with viral RNA detected in 21 of 35 air samples, four of which contained infectious particles. Viral RNA was also detected in the exhaled breath of cows, pointing to possible animal-to-animal airborne spread. Wastewater sampling found H5N1 RNA at each point of the reclaimed water systems, including in manure lagoons that are widely used by migratory birds and in fields with grazing cows. Two of these samples contained infectious virus particles, raising concerns about broader environmental and wildlife exposure.
H5N1 antibodies were also detected in the milk of cows that had never developed clinical signs, suggesting subclinical infections in cows may be more prevalent than previously thought. Additionally, milk sampling from individual mammary gland quarters revealed a heterogeneous infection pattern across individual cows that is inconsistent with milking equipment as the sole mode of viral transmission.
Altogether, the findings highlight that multiple routes of transmission and sources of infection of H5N1 exist on dairy farms that pose risks to cows, dairy workers, and peri-domestic wildlife like migratory birds. Elucidating the routes of H5N1 transmission is critical to developing successful mitigation strategies. Based on their findings, the team of researchers urge respiratory PPE for farm workers, disinfection of milking equipment between cows, wastewater treatment, and rapid identification and isolation of infected animals.
Further Reading:
- “How an H5N1 Outbreak in Elephant Seals Can Inform Pandemic Readiness,” Stephanie DeMarco, PhD, The Scientist
- “Surge in HPAI infections attributed to wild-bird spillover,” R. Scott Nolen, American Veterinary Medical Association
- “Uptick in bird flu outbreaks expected in Wisconsin and nationwide,” Danielle Kaeding, Wisconsin Public Radio
- “Humans may already have some immunity to H5N1 bird flu, study suggests,” Maeve Cullinan, The Telegraph
GMU Biodefense Faculty Cited in The Economist on AI and Bioterrorism
Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley, Professor at GMU’s Schar School of Policy and Government, was cited in a recent The Economist article examining how advances in artificial intelligence (AI) could lower barriers to bioterrorism. The piece explores growing concerns that large language models (LLMs) trained on scientific and biological data may increasingly assist inexperienced actors in designing or troubleshooting experiments involving dangerous pathogens. Ouagrham-Gormley emphasized a central paradox in AI-enabled biological research: users who rely heavily on AI tools may lack the expertise needed to recognize when the systems are producing inaccurate or dangerously flawed guidance. The article highlights both the rapid advancement of AI biological capabilities and the ongoing debate over how to manage emerging biosecurity risks responsibly.
GMU Adjunct Professor Featured in Mason Spirit for Counterterrorism Textbook
Mahmut Cengiz, Associate Professor at GMU’s Schar School of Policy and Government, was recently featured in the Mason Spirit Magazine, highlighting his counterterrorism textbook, Typologies of Terrorist Organizations: Conceptual Lenses and Counterterrorism Measures, developed in part for students of his course, BIOD 722: Examining Terrorist Groups, along with policymakers and practitioners alike. The article explores how Cengiz draws on decades of field research and global security expertise to help readers analyze the evolution, organization, and the tactics of terrorist groups in contemporary security environments.
IN OTHER NEWS
Pandemic Preparedness, Emerging Infectious Diseases, and Global Health Governance
- “WHO delays pandemic treaty amid pathogen-sharing dispute,” Reuters
- “World ‘unprepared’ for next pandemic as countries fail to agree on sharing information, tests and vaccines,” Kat Lay, The Guardian
- “10 Charts to Explain Global Immunization Policy—Where the United States Stands,” Katherine E. Bliss and Priya Chainani, CSIS
- “Hantavirus cluster linked to cruise ship travel, Multi-country,” WHO
- “Second hantavirus case confirmed after deaths on cruise ship,” Ian Aikman, Toby Mann and Thomas Mackintosh, BBC
- “U.S. Health Authorities Monitor Hantavirus Cruise Passengers in Georgia, California and Arizona,” Rylee Kirk and Nina Agrawal, NY Times
- “What doctors know about how the Andes hantavirus spreads,” Brenda Goodman, CNN
- “The Morbid Reason Hantavirus Is Unlikely to Be Next Pandemic,” Jesus Mesa, Newsweek
Biosecurity, Biorisk and Bioterrorism
- “Trump signs new counter terrorism strategy that focuses on hemispheric threats,” Steve Holland, Reuters
- “United States Counterterrorism Strategy 2026,” White House
- “Implementation guidance for biorisk management for laboratories and other related organizations,” ABSA International
- “Man found guilty on 12 counts for running illegal biolab in Reedley,” Christina Lopez, ABC 30
- “Guilty Verdict for California Biolab Operator,” United States Attorney’s Office, Eastern District of California
- “50 Years of the Biological Weapons Convention: Past, Present and Future,” Barry de Vries, Kristoffer Burck, and Sannimari Veini, Springer Nature
Science Governance, Public Trust and Politicization of Health Institutions
- “Former Senior NIAID Official Indicted for Concealing Federal Records During COVID-19 Pandemic,” Office of Public Affairs, U.S. Department of Justice
- “Guns and bulletproof vests: How federal agents arrested Fauci aide,” Jon Cohen, Science
- “F.D.A. Blocked Publication of Research Finding Covid and Shingles Vaccines Were Safe,” Christina Jewett, NY Times
- “Words matter: CDC’s anti-science messaging can undermine public trust in vaccines, survey finds,” Sarah Boden, CIDRAP
- “Exclusive: Deleted tweets reveal new surgeon general pick criticized Trump and RFK Jr. health policies,” Andrew Kaczynski and Meg Tirrell, CNN
- “CDC leader calls for new journal to ‘elevate scientific rigor’,” Jon Cohen, Science
NEW: Responding to Today’s Gaps for Tomorrow’s Health Emergencies: 2026 Ready or Not Report
From Trust for America’s Health (TFAH): “Join us for a Congressional Briefing and National Webinar on the latest information on public health emergency readiness and findings from TFAH’s recent report, Ready or Not 2026: Protecting the Public’s Health from Diseases, Disasters, and Bioterrorism.
The past year alone saw the U.S. facing the most severe flu season in nearly a decade, the highest annual measles case count since 1991, and devastating weather-related emergencies. In addition, these challenges occurred alongside deep federal staffing cuts and destabilized funding to the public health system. As TFAH marks its 25th anniversary, the webinar will review the highlights from this year’s report, which measures the nation’s readiness for public health emergencies through 10 indicators of state preparedness to respond to a wide spectrum of health emergencies and to provide ongoing public health services.”
This webinar will be held on May 19 at 2:00 PM ET. Learn more and register here.
NEW: Public Health Agency of Canada Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Biology and Bioart Summit 2026
From PHAC: “The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) DIY Biology and Bioart Summit 2026 is the first gathering of Canadian DIY biologists and bioartists organized by PHAC since 2020. This summit will bring together these Canadian bio-innovators with PHAC biosafety and biosecurity experts to provide an opportunity to engage and discuss biosafety and biosecurity challenges and opportunities. The summit will also include a keynote presentation by an international DIY biology expert.”
This virtual event will be held from June 10 from 10:00 AM – 2:35 PM ET. Learn more and register here.
Medical Leadership in Disaster Preparedness and Response: Virtual Conference
From ASPR: “Are you currently responsible for the medical direction of a health care entity in the event of a disaster? The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) Technical Resources, Assistance Center, and Information Exchange (TRACIE) and the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) are pleased to cohost the second Medical Leadership in Disaster Preparedness and Response Virtual Conference.
This half day virtual conference will bring together individuals who have a medical direction role during disasters to discuss the spectrum of medical leadership responsibilities and some of the specific challenges of the role. Topics will include: developing and implementing best practices during a disaster, navigating downtown, using data for action, new disaster medicine, and discovering health care surge tools.”
This virtual conference will take place on May 11 from 12:00 – 4:30 PM ET. Learn more and register here.
Biosafety Level 4 Zoonotic Laboratory Network: International Virtual Conference
From the BSL4ZNet: “The BSL4ZNet bi‑annual international conference is a cornerstone event for the BSL4ZNet community. It provides a global forum for scientists, program leaders, and high‑containment specialists to exchange new research, innovations, and lessons learned related to high‑containment laboratories and high‑consequence pathogens. The 2026 meeting will mark our fifth international conference.”
This conference will be held virtually from May 13 at 9:00 AM through June 10 at 9:30 AM ET. Learn more and register here.
International Conference CBRNe Research & Innovation
From CBRNE: “The last 40 years have demonstrated that both military and civilian populations could be exposed to highly hazardous CBRNE agents following conflicts, natural outbreaks and disasters, industrial incidents or terrorist attacks. Worldwide, researchers, responders and industrial capacities have been commited to provide adapted response to these challenges. The CBRNE Research & Innovation Conference includes workshops and demonstrations of innovative materials, technologies and procedures, according to the following themes: Detection (identification), Protection (decontamination, medical countermeasures), and risk & crisis management.
This event will take place in Arcachon, France, from May 19 – 21, 2026. Learn more and RSVP here.
Biotechnology and Resilient Human Systems Workshop 2026
From the MIT Lincoln Laboratory: “The focus of the 2026 Biotechnology and Resilient Human Systems Workshop will be Preparing for Future Biological Effects. This two-day, in-person event will feature sessions highlighting the dual-use nature of biotechnology, building a resilient biosurveillance system, and developing broad medical countermeasures. The workshop will feature keynote presentations from leaders across the U.S. government highlighting critical national security challenges and opportunities created from advanced biotechnology and will also exhibit state-of-the-art research and innovations from the rapidly expanding biotechnology ecosystem.
Government and industry leaders, national security experts, UARCs, FFRDCS, national labs, entrepreneurs, and academic innovators will jointly discuss and showcase how to rapidly transition biotechnology-enabled technologies into operational capabilities that effectively address critical national security challenges.”
This in-person event will take place on June 2-3 in Lexington, MA. Learn more and register here.
From the Ground Up: Federated Biodefense
From the Atlantic Council: “The Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense at the Atlantic Council will host its latest meeting, surveying federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial government roles, responsibilities and resources.
Non-federal governments serve on the frontlines of biodefense. As the biological threat continues to grow, those officials who tackle this topic on a daily basis require reinforcement. This meeting of the Commission will discuss the impacts of changes in federal support for state, local, tribal, and territorial biodefense activities, as well as the biodefense roles, responsibilities and investments of non-federal governments. The discussions will also touch upon the personnel, policies and programs needed to bolster preparedness for future biological threats.”
This event will take place on Thursday, June 4 from 10:00 AM – 4:00 PM ET. Further information and registration details to follow.
GHS 2026
From GHS: “We’re excited to officially announce that the 4th Global Health Security Conference (GHS2026) will be held in Kuala Lumpur on the 9 – 12 June, 2026!”
“Building on the incredible momentum of GHS2024 in Sydney, we look forward to bringing together the global health security community once again – this time in one of Southeast Asia’s most vibrant and dynamic cities.”
“Registration and Call for Abstracts are now live!”
Learn more, submit abstracts, and register here.
Biosecurity Simulation Exercise (BSX 2026): Laboratory Incidents & Deliberate Biothreats
From the Asia Centre for Health Security: “This table-top simulation exercise aims to enhance inter-sectoral and inter-disciplinary preparedness for laboratory biosafety and biosecurity (LBB) and deliberate biothreat events (DBE). Through lectures, discussions, and structured, scenario-driven exercises, participants will explore decision-making to detect, risk-assess, and manage high-consequence biological incidents under conditions of incomplete information and unfolding events. Participants will collaborate in teams, building on expert perspectives to address issues in surveillance, diagnostics, public health response, security assessment, and risk communication.”
This in-person event will be held from August 27-28. Learn more and register here.
The Global Congress on Chemical Security and Emerging Threats – Call for Abstracts
From INTERPOL: “The 6th Plenary Meeting of the Global Congress on Chemical Security & Emerging Threats will be in Panama City from 21-24 Sept 2026. The event brings together governments, industry, academia, & international orgs to strengthen chem security through collaboration & action. By providing a platform for multi-sector global cooperation and partnership, the Global Congress enables members to build relationships, exchange expertise, share important information on emerging threats and innovative best practices, and enhance capabilities.”
The call for abstracts is now open, and the applications are due by May 15. Learn more about the conference here and apply here.
INTERPOL Global Biosecurity Conference 2026 – Call for Abstracts
From INTERPOL: “The 2nd INTERPOL Global Biosecurity Conference brings together law enforcement and partner agencies, biosecurity experts, and academia from different regions and backgrounds to discuss the latest developments in global biosecurity. We invite biosecurity experts, researchers and scholars to submit an abstract, subject to a selection process, to present your work during the conference. The abstract should cover one of the following topics: global biological threat landscape, indicators and early-warning for biological threats, health and law enforcement coordination, forensics, biosecurity at borders, science and technology innovation, and legal, policy and information-sharing.”
The call for abstracts is now open, and the applications are due by May 22. Learn more and apply here.
Bio-attribution Challenge
From DARPA: “Translate your bio-attribution research into national security impact. In an era of unprecedented biological data generation, the ability to rapidly determine the origin of a biological event — whether natural, accidental, or intentional — is a critical component of national security and public health. To meet the challenge of finding the “needle in a haystack” within this data deluge, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has launched the Bio-Attribution Challenge.
This virtual competition calls on innovators to develop a new generation of tools capable of analyzing petabyte-scale datasets in near real-time, far exceeding the capacity of current systems. The goal is to revolutionize how we identify and trace the source of biological sequences, ensuring a faster, more effective response to potential threats. Register for virtual competition to win a share of $180,000 in Prizes.”
The deadline to register is June 15. Learn more and register here.
The Pandora Report 