Welcome to this week’s Pandora Report! This issue features sweeping changes in U.S. vaccine policy and the state-level battles they’ve sparked, major shakeups across the intelligence community and pharmaceutical supply chains, and new developments at the intersection of AI, biosecurity, and biotechnology risks. From public health politics to national security and emerging technologies, here’s what you need to know.
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State Pushback and Federal Tensions Over Vaccine Policy
Recent federal changes to vaccine policy under HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have prompted a strong state-level reaction: blue and swing states including Colorado, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and others are moving to preserve vaccine access through legislation, bills, executive orders, and regional collaborations that can issue independent recommendations and expand pharmacy-based administration of vaccines regardless of federal guidance. State lawmakers and medical experts warn, however, that these piecemeal measures may not fully mitigate the harm of an expected federal rollback of vaccine access across different age groups, leaving tens of millions – including Medicare enrollees, military members and veterans, and people on employer plans – exposed to higher out-of-pocket costs and potential loss of coverage.
Conversely, some red states, like Florida, are taking a more restrictive approach to vaccines. Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo has called for mRNA COVID-19 vaccines to be “not available to anyone,” clarifying that other vaccines would remain accessible to Floridians but singling out mRNA shots as unsafe in his view. This news comes amid waning public confidence in federal vaccine policy: a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only one in four Americans believe recent vaccine policy changes are grounded in scientific evidence, with the majority expressing skepticism and concerns about the politicization of public health decisions. “Infectious diseases do not respect political boundaries,” said Pennsylvania Democratic state Rep. Arvind Venkat. “We’re talking about contagious illnesses. What you do affects me and what I do affects you.”
On Wednesday, former CDC Director Susan Monarez testified before the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions that she was fired for resisting Secretary Kennedy’s demands to pre-approve vaccine recommendations for the public and fire career scientists. “Even under pressure, I could not replace evidence with ideology,” says Monarez. Just days before a high-stakes meeting this week, HHS and CDC announced five new members to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), with votes expected on recommendations for vaccines for COVID-19, hepatitis B, measles, mumps, rubella and varicella (MMRV), and respiratory syncytial virus.
In a perplexing conclusion to the otherwise tense meeting on Thursday, the panel seemed to contradict itself when voting on the MMRV recommendation: the members voted 8 to 3, with one abstention, in favor of recommending that children under 4 receive MMR and varicella vaccines separately rather than the combined MMRV shot. However, on a follow-up vote regarding whether this decision should apply to coverage under the nation’s Vaccines for Children (VFC) program, the panel backpedaled, issuing eight no votes, one yes vote, and three abstentions, citing confusion over how to reconcile coverage with the updated recommendations. Analysts at Citi noted that while the decision may impact parental choice and Merck’s vaccine specifically, overall vaccination rates for the four diseases “are likely to remain stable.”
These deliberations occur against a broader backdrop of declining childhood vaccination rates across the U.S. A six-month NBC News investigation, in collaboration with Stanford University, found that since 2019, 77% of counties and jurisdictions in the U.S. have reported notable declines in core childhood vaccines–including MMR, polio, whooping cough and diphtheria shots–with some countries seeing drops of more than 40 percentage points. Rising exemption rates for school children further exacerbate the problem: among states tracking MMR vaccine data, 67% of counties now fall below the 95% herd immunity threshold needed to protect outbreaks. “As childhood vaccination rates fall, we’ll see more diseases like measles,” Dr. Sean O’Leary of the American Academy of Pediatrics said.
Further Reading:
- “Kennedy’s vaccine committee plans to vote on COVID-19, hepatitis B and chickenpox shots,”Mike Stobbe, AP News
- “Why 1 in 6 U.S. parents are rejecting vaccine recommendations,” Lauren Weber, Scott Clement, Emily Guskin, and Lena H. Sun, The Washington Post
- “Ousted CDC director expected to push back against RFK Jr.’s version of her firing,” Sophie Gardner, Politico
From Intelligence to Supply Chains: Evolving National Security Challenges
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) is reportedly considering reductions to the National Counterintelligence and Security Center (NCSC) and the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), key hubs for coordinating the U.S. government’s counterintelligence activities against espionage campaigns. These changes come as part of a broader restructuring across several federal agencies and the intelligence community, including CISA, the FBI, NSA, CIA, and other agencies. A previous reorganization already reduced NCSC leadership from six senior directors and assistant directors to a single acting director, according to one former senior official, and further cuts are expected. In the meantime, the White House has nominated George Wesley Street to serve as the next director of the center.
National security concerns extend into the pharmaceutical sector. The Trump administration is reportedly weighing several restrictions on medicines sourced from China, including experimental treatments, amid warnings from prominent investors and corporate executives with close ties to the White House that such measures could help crackdown against what they view as an existential threat by China to U.S. biotechnology. A draft of the executive orders under consideration would prioritize domestic production of key medicine, including antibiotics and acetaminophen, and offer tax credits to companies relocating manufacturing to the U.S. The policy debates highlight concerns that America’s reliance on China for essential medicines represents a national security vulnerability, especially as major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer and AstraZeneca have invested heavily in Chinese experimental drug markets.
Further Reading:
- “Trump’s Tariff Threat for Imported Medicines Poses Political Risks,” Rebecca Robbins, The New York Times
- “After lagging far behind, NIH now seems on pace to spend its entire $47 billion budget by Sept. 30” Megan Molteni, Anil Oza, and J. Emory Parker, STAT News
AI, Biosecurity, and the Fragile Line Between Promise and Peril
OpenAI is collaborating with the U.S. Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) and the UK’s AI Standards Institute (AISI) to strengthen safeguards in AI systems, particularly in domains with national security relevance such as cyber and chemical-biological risk domains. The partnership focuses on joint red-teaming of safeguards against biological misuse, end-to-end product testing for security issues, and rapid feedback loops to address vulnerabilities. Since July, OpenAI and CAISI have worked to identify potential security vulnerabilities in agentic systems, such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT Agent, while the UK AISI began red-teaming safeguards against biological misuse in May–ongoing collaboration to continuously improve the effectiveness of OpenAI’s safety stack.
In parallel, Boston University has recently developed an AI tool to enhance surveillance of disease outbreaks across the globe. This project known as the Biothreats Emergence, Analysis and Communications Network (BEACON), launched in April, combines algorithmic analysis and expert oversight to track emerging diseases in the U.S. and abroad. “Our main goal is to reduce the time between the reporting of a disease and its response,” said Nahid Bhadelia, an infectious disease physician who served in the Biden administration’s COVID response team. “You want a potential alarm bell.” In just three months, BEACON has flagged about 420 outbreaks and mapped 134 pathogens affecting humans, animals and other species, with active users spanning 162 countries, including the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL).
At the same time, scientists are revisiting older fears about biotechnology’s risks. In the late 2024, a team of Nobel-winning biologists and experts warned of the dangers of creating “mirror life” – synthetic organisms built from molecules with the opposite handedness of all known biology. Such organisms could theoretically infect cells while remaining potentially invisible to immune defenses, posing catastrophic ecological risks. Though purely hypothetical today, the idea dates to Louis Pasteur’s 19th-century discovery of molecular asymmetry, underscoring the long history of anxieties over humanity accidentally unleashing forces beyond its control.
Further Reading:
- “How new technology could make it easier to identify covert bioweapons programs” Filippa Lentzos, Hailey Wingo, Jez Littlewood, and Alberto Muti, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
- “The Next Public Health Emergency Workshop Recommendations on How Regulatory Agencies and Vaccine Developers Across the World Can Be Better Prepared” Catherine Hoath, Adam Hacker, and John Skerritt, DIA Global Forum
- “The Costs to Global Health” Carrie Arnold, Hopkins Bloomberg Public Health
- “Progress on the Sustainable Development Goals: The gender snapshot 2025” UN Women
- “‘Critical’ to Complete Pandemic Agreement by UN Meeting in 2026” Kerry Cullinan, Health Policy Watch
Avian Influenza Updates
By Margeaux Malone, Pandora Report Associate Editor
Early Birds: H5N1 Gets a Head Start on Migration Season
This week saw a flurry of new H5N1 bird flu developments across the country in both wild bird populations and agricultural settings, potentially signaling a rise in virus spread as the fall migration season takes flight.
In Maryland, Charles County health officials reported that several dead vultures found near La Plata tested presumptively positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza on September 12th. While confirmatory results are pending, the detection underscores H5N1’s continued circulation in wild bird populations, particularly among scavenging species like vultures. The public is urged not to handle sick or dead birds and report any encounters to the USDA Animal Plant and Health Inspection Service.
Meanwhile, Nebraska announced its first confirmed H5N1 detection in dairy cattle. USDA officials identified the virus in a central Nebraska herd through pre-movement milk sampling, a testament to the value of proactive surveillance measures. Genetic analysis confirmed the strain matches the B3.13 genotype seen in circulating in dairy operations in other U.S. states, including California.
Minnesota also saw its disease-free status end this week following confirmation of H5N1 in a Redwood County turkey flock that saw increased bird mortality over the weekend. This marks the state’s first detection since April 23rd, just weeks after officials declared Minnesota free from the disease on August 25th.
These new detections come shortly after outbreaks in North and South Dakota last month that have already claimed nearly 200,000 birds. South Dakota state veterinarian Beth Thompson said South Dakota is at the “leading edge” of this season’s bird flu infections with 134,900 turkeys killed across three facilities to contain the spread. North Dakota reported 60,300 turkey deaths in response to outbreaks there.
With fall migration season set to intensify over the coming weeks and months, the recent wave of detections highlights the importance of ongoing surveillance across both wild bird populations and agricultural settings. Effective coordination between state agriculture departments and federal agencies will prove increasingly vital as the virus capitalizes on seasonal bird movements to spread across the country to new flocks and farms.
Further Reading:
- “More Data From Farms Could Help Scientists Better Track Avian Flu, but Privacy Concerns Stand in the Way,” Grey Moran, Sentient
- “#NoBirdFlu: clear communications for better biosecurity,” European Food Safety Authority
“Saving Lives, Spending Less: The Global Investment Case for Noncommunicable Diseases”
From WHO: “Saving lives, spending less: the global investment case for noncommunicable diseases outlines why urgent investment in cost-effective interventions for NCDs is essential for health and sustainable development. Drawing on the World Health Organization’s package of NCD best buys, the report demonstrates how these evidence-based measures can help countries reduce premature deaths, strengthen health systems, and advance progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. It provides policymakers, donors, advocates, and partners with a clear economic and social rationale for scaling up implementation of proven solutions. By framing NCD prevention and control as both a health and development priority, the report offers a roadmap for action that delivers benefits across populations, economies, and generations. The evidence is clear: investing in WHO’s best buys is not only possible—it is imperative. The time to act is now.”
NEW: Personal Protective Equipment for Influenza A (H5N1) in High-Risk Farm Settings: A Workshop
From NASEM: “A planning committee of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will organize a virtual public workshop to examine personal protective equipment (PPE) needs and best practices to protect workers in high-risk U.S. farm settings and control Influenza A (H5N1) transmission between livestock and humans. This workshop will provide the opportunity to exchange knowledge and ideas among interested and impacted parties–including technical experts, policy makers, livestock industry leaders and farm owners, and PPE users in farm settings (e.g., farmworkers, veterinarians).”
These workshops will take place 10 am-4:30pm ET on September 29-30. Register here.
NEW: Feeding Resilience: Risk and Readiness in Food Security
From CSR: “This event will convene a multidisciplinary group interested in food security, agriculture, climate, security, and development in-person at KSU and virtually for other US and international audiences. Throughout the day, attendees will have opportunities to network and engage with expert speakers on food and water security challenges, agricultural trade and innovation, workforce development, and the way forward in today’s global policymaking environment. The event is part of CCS’s Feeding Resilience program, which has analyzed and developed policy recommendations on food, climate, and security risks for the United States and is now deepening analysis and policy engagements for European and global audiences.”
This event will take place 8:30am-2:35pm CDT in Manhattan, KS, on October 7. Register here.
NEW: Exploring Applications of AI in Genomics and Precision Health: A Workshop
From NASEM: “The National Academies’ Roundtable on Genomics and Precision Health will host a hybrid public workshop on October 28 to explore current and potential future applications for AI in genomics and precision health along the continuum from translational research to clinical applications. The workshop will:
- Explore the current implementation of AI in genomics and precision health (e.g., variant interpretation, data integration, patient and participant identification, return of results, treatment selection).
- Discuss potential benefits and challenges of future AI applications (e.g., data harmonization and security, workforce, and usefulness for all).
- Consider evaluations for and impact of the accuracy of, and bias inherent to, AI technologies in genomics-related research and clinical care.
- Examine lessons learned from applications of AI in other fields that may be transferable to genomics and precision health throughout the translational research process.”
This workshop will take place 8:30am-5:00pm ET on October 28. Register here.
Mirror Image Biology: Pushing the Envelope in Designing Biological Systems – A Workshop
From NASEM: “Most biological molecules are chiral entities where their mirror images have different structures and functional characteristics. Scientists have begun synthesizing left-handed DNA and RNA and creating proteins that can write left-handed nucleic acids. This, and other related research, is described as “mirror biology” and includes research toward creating mirror-image self-replicating living systems. The National Academies will host a foundational workshop on mirror biology, focusing on the state of the science, trends in research and development, risks and benefits of this research, and considerations relating for future governance of relevant enabling technologies.”
This event will take place virtually, September 29-30. Register here.
Doing More with Less: Practical Biosafety on a Budget
“Led by Azelia Labs biosafety experts, Katerina Semenyuk, PhD, RBP (ABSA) and Sarah Ziegler, PhD, RPB, CBSP (ABSA) this webinar will provide a comprehensive guide to maintaining a robust biosafety program in resource-constrained environments. We will address the unique challenges that arise when faced with limited funding or leadership hesitation to invest in safety protocols.”
“This session will focus on practical, actionable strategies to overcome these obstacles. Topics will include how to prioritize essential safety measures when budgets are tight, creative solutions for providing adequate personal protective equipment (PPE), and innovative approaches to maintaining equipment and facilities without costly upgrades. We will also discuss methods for effectively communicating the value of biosafety to leadership to secure the necessary support for your program.”
This online event will take place on October 2, 12-1 pm EDT. Register here.
EMBRACE 2025 – Scientific Pathways to Biotoxin Preparedness Online Event
From CMINE: “Join us at the forefront of chemical and biological security for EMBRACE 2025 – a key event dedicated to cutting-edge research on biotoxins and human biomarkers of intoxication. This international symposium will spotlight ground-breaking scientific work and host the inauguration of EMBRACE’s Biotoxin Task Force.”
“What to Expect:
A unique opportunity to shape the scientific landscape of biotoxin threat preparedness and learn more about the EU EMBRACE project and the Biotoxin Task Force
A platform for showcasing innovation in biotoxin detection and response
Networking with global experts in biological forensics and toxicology”
This event will take place on October 15, 0900-1700 CEST. Register here.
Global Conference on Biological Threat Reduction
From the World Organisation for Animal Health: “In October 2025, WOAH is hosting its third Global Conference, with the goal of galvanising advocacy efforts to manage the rising risk of biological threats from across the world.”
“The Global Conference on Biological Threat Reduction – which will take place in Geneva on 28-30 October 2025 – will bring together top minds in the fields of
health-security, emerging technologies, and biothreat reduction policies, from the public and private sectors – to focus on the latest strategies, challenges and innovations in combating biological threats to our interconnected ecosystems.”
“The Conference will bring together approximately 400 participants from different sectors, including animal health, law enforcement and security, public health, international and regional organisations, investment and development partners, private sector and industry representatives, research, academia and regulatory authorities, youth organisations.”
“Attendees will engage in thought-provoking discussions and innovative technical presentations aimed at strengthening prevention, preparedness and response capabilities across the world.”
“The event will be guided by a narrative that traces WOAH’s commitment to biological threat reduction and the increasingly relevant role it plays at the health-security interface. Against the backdrop of an uncertain future, WOAH believes that synergies between sectors can drive positive change – making the world a safer and healthier place. ”
Learn more and register here.
GHS 2026
From GHS: “We’re excited to officially announce that the 4th Global Health Security Conference (GHS2026) will be held in Kuala Lumpur on the 9 – 12 June, 2026!”
“Building on the incredible momentum of GHS2024 in Sydney, we look forward to bringing together the global health security community once again – this time in one of Southeast Asia’s most vibrant and dynamic cities.”
“Registration and Call for Abstracts are now live!”
Learn more, submit abstracts, and register here.
Applied Biosafety Call for Papers
“The Editors of Applied Biosafety are pleased to announce a forthcoming Special Issue focused on the myriad of topics associated with global biosafety management. This special issue will showcase examples of innovative approaches, creative solutions, and best practices developed and used around the world for managing risks associated with the handling, use, and storage of infectious biological agents, toxins, and potentially infectious materials in research and clinical settings.”
Learn more and submit by November 1 here.
64th ISODARCO Course
From ISODARCO: “In recent years, the global security landscape has become increasingly volatile, shaped by a convergence of geopolitical tensions, technological advancements, and evolving nuclear doctrines. The post-Cold War order that once provided a measure of predictability in global security has eroded. Conflicts such as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, and strategic competition between major powers have reshaped alliances and strategic postures.”
“At the same time, disruptive technologies including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, hypersonic missiles, and cyber threats – are adding new layers of complexity to both nuclear and conventional deterrence dynamics. These technologies are not only distorting the information landscape but also compressing decision-making timelines and complicating signaling mechanisms, increasing the risk of miscalculation.”
“Effectively managing nuclear escalation risks in this environment will require a combination of innovative diplomacy, technological safeguards, and renewed dialogue mechanisms to rebuild trust, reduce misperceptions, and stabilize strategic relations.”
“The ISODARCO 2026 Winter Course presents an invaluable opportunity for students and experts to discuss and examine these dynamics in depth and explore approaches to re-establishing strategic stability and reducing nuclear dangers in a volatile world.”
This course will take place January 11-18, 2026, in Andalo. Learn more and apply here.
The Pandora Report 