Pandora Report 8.1.2025

by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

Top French Court Annuls Assad Arrest Warrant

Last week, France’s Cour de Cassation ruled invalid a 2023 arrest warrant issued for former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad for the use of CW in Ghouta in 2013 and Duma in 2018. The court declared the warrant invalid under international law as it gives heads of state personal immunity from prosecution in foreign courts while in office. The court determined there are no exceptions to this, even in cases of alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, but that new arrest warrants may be issued for Assad now that he is no longer in office. Human rights advocates had hoped the court would rule in the opposite direction, which would have set a precedent for holding accused war criminals accountable even while in office.

Administration Updates

Prasad Resigns from FDA Post

Vinay Prasad, who was appointed in May to lead FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research and later became the organization’s Chief Medical and Scientific Officer, resigned this week. This move reportedly came following pressure and a campaign against him led by Laura Loomer focused on statements he previously made supporting certain political figures. Secretary Kennedy and FDA Commissioner Marty Makary defended Prasad, who had already limited the use of COVID-19 vaccines, among other MAHA goals. Prasad also drew criticism for his actions targeting Sarepta Therapeutics, which included demanding the company stop shipping its drug, Elevidys, though FDA soon backed down on this.

While Prasad has not commented on his departure, an HHS spokesperson said on Tuesday, “Dr. Prasad did not want to be a distraction to the great work of the F.D.A. in the Trump administration and has decided to return to California and spend more time with his family.”

Further Reading:

USDA Unveils Plan to Relocate DC-Area Employees

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced last week a plan to transfer most Washington, DC-area staff to five locations across the country and close several USDA offices in the national capitol region. These locations are Salt Lake City, Utah; Fort Collins, Colorado; Indianapolis, Indiana; Kansas City, Missouri; and Raleigh, North Carolina. Staff will reportedly receive notice about their new assignments in the coming months.

While USDA leadership says this is being done to move USDA staff closer to those it serves and cut costs, the plan immediately prompted bipartisan backlash. Members of the Senate Agriculture Committee grilled Deputy Secretary of Agriculture Stephen Vaden this week, focusing much of their questioning on whether or not the administration had appropriately notified Congress of this plan. Others pointed out concerns about the accuracy of reasons provided for this plan, which have been echoed more broadly. For example, more than 90% of USDA employees are already based in county and regional offices across the country, rather than in the DC-area. Furthermore, 15,000 USDA employees will leave the organization at the end of the year, having accepted deferred resignation and early retirement authors. Furthermore, there are concerns this will weaken USDA’s ability to allow its policy-focused staff to interface with counterparts at other federal agencies due to its planned diminished presence in DC.

Further Reading:

Other Relevant Happenings:

EPA Rolling Back Key Provisions

Concerns Growing About Possible Ousting of U.S. Preventive Services Take Force Members

Marty Makary Promotes COVID-19 Conspiracy Theory

Gerald Parker Resigns as head of Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy

CDC Reports Childhood Vaccination Rates Have Declined

Statistics released by the CDC this week show that vaccination coverage for key vaccines in children entering kindergarten in the US fell once more during the 2024-2025 school year. This is continues a concerning trend that worsened with the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and that experts fear will be further exacerbated by anti-vaccine rhetoric and actions by the administration. In this last school year, just 92.5% of kindergarteners had received both doses of the measles vaccine, down from 93.9% during the 2020-2021 school year, and below the 95% needed to help prevent spread of the disease in a community. 92.5% were vaccinated for polio, down from 95% in 2020. Nonmedical exemptions rose nationally to 3.6%, up from 3.3% nationally. Exemptions increased in 36 states and DC, with 17 states reporting exemptions exceeding 5%.

Further Reading:

Avian Influenza Updates

By Margeaux Malone, Pandora Report Associate Editor

Why Aren’t More Americans Dying from Bird Flu?

A puzzling trend has emerged in the ongoing H5N1 outbreak. While bird flu has historically killed nearly half of infected humans over the past three decades, only one of the 70 U.S. cases in the past 18 months has been fatal. New research published in Science Translational Medicine suggests swine flu may be to thank for the low mortality rate.

The study, published on July 23, hypothesizes that immunity from the 2009 H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic could be providing cross-protection against H5N1. Researchers at the University of Pittsburgh and Penn State conducted experiments using ferrets, the typical animal model for influenza research, and found that animals previously infected with seasonal flu viruses, particularly H1N1, had significant protection when later exposed to bird flu. The study could not determine the exact mechanism for this protection, but some experts theorize similarities in the neuraminidase protein shared between H1N1 and H5N1 may offer some cross-immunity. Supporting evidence comes from a study out of Hong Kong last year showing that most people infected with 2009 H1N1 developed antibodies that also recognize H5N1, while fewer than half of pre-2009 blood samples showed similar cross-reactivity.

Despite the benefit this cross-immunity may provide, other experts urge caution against giving this revelation too much weight. Yoshihiro Kawaoka, a leading influenza scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, points to Cambodia’s recent H5N1 cases, which maintain the virus’s traditionally high fatality rate of almost 50%. Just this week, Cambodia’s health ministry reported another hospitalization due to H5N1, the country’s 14th of the year. The Cambodian strain differs from the one circulating in U.S. dairy cows and poultry, suggesting viral genetics matter significantly.

Other factors that could also explain the milder U.S. cases include the route of infection (often through workers’ eyes) and patient demographics of those exposed. Richard Webby, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza in Animals and Birds at St. Jude’s notes that seasonal flu transmits effectively despite widespread immunity, arguing, “We know that seasonal influenza viruses transmit just fine in the human population where there is a lot of pre-existing immunity. So pre-existing immunity in its own right is not enough to prevent an influenza virus from transmitting through the population.” For instance, influenza pandemics of H3N2 in 1968 and H1N1 in 2009 occurred despite prevalent circulating immunity.

The bottom line is that while H1N1 immunity might be buying us some time and creating a barrier to bird flu transmission, it may not be enough to prevent a pandemic. The virus has already shown an ability to expand its host range and cause severe disease in many animal species. It may only be a small evolution away from overcoming human immune defenses as well.

Further Reading:

“Experts React: Starvation in Gaza”

This analysis from the Center for Strategic & International Studies includes several expert perspectives, including commentary from Biodefense MS alumna Sophia Hirshfield, who co-authored the portion, “Gaza Needs More Than Food to Fix a Health Catastrophe.”

“The Trump Administration’s Foreign Aid Review: Status of Global Health Security/Pandemic Preparedness”

From KFF Global Health Policy: “Starting on the first day of his second term, President Trump issued several executive actions that have fundamentally changed foreign assistance. These included: an executive order which called for a 90-day review of foreign aid; a subsequent “stop-work order” that froze all payments and services for work already underway; the dissolution of USAID, including the reduction of most staff and contractors; and the cancellation of most foreign assistance awards. Although a waiver to allow life-saving humanitarian assistance was issued, it has been limited to certain services only and difficult for program implementers to obtain. In addition, while there have been several legal challenges to these actions, there has been limited legal remedy to date. As a result, U.S. global health programs have been disrupted and, in some cases, ended. Recent changes to the Department of Health and Human Services, including proposed cuts and reorganization, are also likely to affect these programs. This fact sheet is part of a series on the status of U.S. global health programs.”

“Potential Trade-Offs of Proposed Cuts to the US National Institutes of Health”

Jalai and Hasgul recently published this article in JAMA Health Forum: “Importance  Proposed US National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding cuts under the second Trump administration have raised concerns about their implications. As a key sponsor of foundational research and workforce training, the NIH plays a vital role in biomedical innovation. Understanding the potential impacts of these cuts is critical for policymakers. This study aimed to examine how NIH budget cuts interact with the broader economic and biomedical innovation systems, identifying trade-offs.”

“Observations  In this qualitative systems modeling analysis, a causal loop diagram was developed that centers on fiscal deficit management theories and incorporates evidence from innovation economics, organizational sciences, and science and technology policy through a structured literature synthesis. The causal loop diagram highlights 4 cycles that may amplify the effects of NIH budget cuts and potentially offset the intended fiscal savings. First, a reduction in fundamental research, which contributes to discoveries, could slow future innovations. Second, the erosion of human capital due to fewer NIH-funded training and career opportunities may shrink the future biomedical workforce. Third, health care expenditures could increase as greater reliance on private sector research and development increases the costs of medical innovations. Finally, decreased investment in public health and translational research may lead to missed opportunities for disease prevention, further increasing health care expenditures.”

“Conclusions and Relevance  Results of this qualitative analysis using systems modeling suggest that NIH budget reductions may have far-reaching implications for scientific progress, the biomedical innovation environment, and health care costs. Beyond immediate budgetary impacts, systemic interactions shaping long-term biomedical research and public health must be considered in funding policies.”

“Global Vaccine Confidence Trends Among Adults Above and Below Age 65”

Liu et al. published this article in npj Vaccines: “This study is interested in global vaccine confidence because it directly impacts vaccination rates and public health outcomes, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, due to the unique vulnerabilities to vaccine-preventable diseases, misinformation, and access to health information among adults aged 65 and older, understanding vaccine confidence in this population is crucial for developing targeted interventions and improving vaccination rates. The current research is limited by single-country surveys and cross-sectional designs, providing limited insights into these issues. We compared the vaccine confidence between the population over 65 and under 65 in terms of vaccine safety, effectiveness, compatibility with religious beliefs, and importance to children. We employed a hierarchical logistic model, and compared human development index (HDI) values to investigate determinants of vaccine confidence. Vaccine confidence increased between 2015 and 2019, but decreased between 2019 and 2022 across most global regions, exhibiting an inverted U-shaped trend. Population over 65 in high-income countries was more likely to agree on the safety, effectiveness, importance to children, and compatibility of vaccines with religious beliefs than those under 65, with agreement levels exceeding 80% for most aspects. Gender, education, income, and religion influenced vaccine attitudes among adults aged 65 and older. Countries with an HDI exceeding 0.9 consistently demonstrated positive trends in vaccine confidence. This relationship between HDI and vaccine confidence underscores the importance of comprehensive societal development in shaping attitudes toward vaccination. These findings can help develop targeted interventions and policies to improve vaccination rates among older adults.”

BWC Working Group Friends of the Chair Webinar Series: Rolling Text

From UNIDIR: “The Chair of the Working Group on the Strengthening of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), in collaboration with UNIDIR and the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, is organizing an informal webinar to stimulate reflection and discussion ahead of the sixth session of the Working Group.”

“The event will focus on the rolling text being prepared by the Chair for the sixth session, taking into account comments received on his non-paper dated 6 May. The webinar will have a particular emphasis on the proposed mechanisms for science and technology and for international cooperation, as well as measures on compliance and verification. It will feature an expert panel followed by a moderated question-and-answer session with the audience.”

This event will take place on August 5, 12:15-14:45 CEST via Zoom. Register here.

CTD–SPECTRE Symposium, “Tropical and Emerging Infectious Diseases for Clinicians and Translational Scientists” 

“The CTD-SPECTRE Symposium on Tropical and Emerging Infectious Diseases for Clinicians and Translational Scientists 2025 offers a unique opportunity to connect with global experts, gain cutting-edge insights, and collaborate with peers dedicated to infectious disease research and treatment.”

“Taking place September 16 -19, 2025, at the historic Grand Galvez in Galveston, TX, this immersive symposium will unite clinicians, translational investigators, and trainees to explore the latest breakthroughs in tropical and emerging infectious diseases.”

“Hosted by the Division of Infectious Diseases at UTMB, Center for Tropical Diseases (CTD) and Special Pathogens Excellence in Clinical Treatment, Readiness, & Education (SPECTRE) Program.”

Learn more and register here.

Global Conference on Biological Threat Reduction

From the World Organisation for Animal Health: “In October 2025, WOAH is hosting its third Global Conference, with the goal of galvanising advocacy efforts to manage the rising risk of biological threats from across the world.”

“The Global Conference on Biological Threat Reduction – which will take place in Geneva on 28-30 October 2025 – will bring together top minds in the fields of
health-security, emerging technologies, and biothreat reduction policies, from the public and private sectors – to focus on the latest strategies, challenges and innovations in combating biological threats to our interconnected ecosystems.”

“The Conference will bring together approximately 400 participants from different sectors, including animal health, law enforcement and security, public health, international and regional organisations, investment and development partners, private sector and industry representatives, research, academia and regulatory authorities, youth organisations.”

“Attendees will engage in thought-provoking discussions and innovative technical presentations aimed at strengthening prevention, preparedness and response capabilities across the world.”

“The event will be guided by a narrative that traces WOAH’s commitment to biological threat reduction and the increasingly relevant role it plays at the health-security interface. Against the backdrop of an uncertain future, WOAH believes that synergies between sectors can drive positive change – making the world a safer and healthier place. ”

Learn more and register here.

Applied Biosafety Call for Papers

“The Editors of Applied Biosafety are pleased to announce a forthcoming Special Issue focused on the myriad of topics associated with global biosafety management. This special issue will showcase examples of innovative approaches, creative solutions, and best practices developed and used around the world for managing risks associated with the handling, use, and storage of infectious biological agents, toxins, and potentially infectious materials in research and clinical settings.”

Learn more and submit by November 1 here.

64th ISODARCO Course

From ISODARCO: “In recent years, the global security landscape has become increasingly volatile, shaped by a convergence of geopolitical tensions, technological advancements, and evolving nuclear doctrines. The post-Cold War order that once provided a measure of predictability in global security has eroded. Conflicts such as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, and strategic competition between major powers have reshaped alliances and strategic postures.”

“At the same time, disruptive technologies including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, hypersonic missiles, and cyber threats – are adding new layers of complexity to both nuclear and conventional deterrence dynamics. These technologies are not only distorting the information landscape but also compressing decision-making timelines and complicating signaling mechanisms, increasing the risk of miscalculation.”

“Effectively managing nuclear escalation risks in this environment will require a combination of innovative diplomacy, technological safeguards, and renewed dialogue mechanisms to rebuild trust, reduce misperceptions, and stabilize strategic relations.”

“The ISODARCO 2026 Winter Course presents an invaluable opportunity for students and experts to discuss and examine these dynamics in depth and explore approaches to re-establishing strategic stability and reducing nuclear dangers in a volatile world.”

This course will take place January 11-18, 2026, in Andalo. Learn more and apply here.

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