Author: Siddha Hover

It has unfortunately been an exceptionally busy week for those of us studying terrorism, bioterrorism, and pandemics. With new developments in the Boston bombing case,  the ricin letters, and H7N9 in China seemingly happening by the hour, we can guarantee only that news included in this week’s report is current as of this (Friday) morning. In the meantime, our thoughts and good wishes remain with Boston.

Ricin Letters Suspect Paul Kevin Curtis Quickly Identified by Earlier Letters

Paul Kevin Curtis is accused of mailing three letters – one to Mississippi Senator Roger Wicker, one to President Obama, and one to a local justice of the peace – containing the toxin ricin. While the FBI has positively identified the toxin, further testing is needed to determine the concentration and purity of the substance. Curtis, who was identified in part by his signature on the letters – Curtis’ sign off of “KC” on the ricin letters matched previous letters sent to Senator Wicker’s office. Curtis’ family maintains he is mentally ill, and had refused to take appropriate medication.  Now the question becomes – is this terrorism? Keep an eye out for the Mason viewpoint.

ABC News – “Investigators trying to determine who sent ricin-tainted letters to President Obama and other officials quickly traced the messages and signature of the letter to Paul Kevin Curtis, an Elvis impersonator who had written to officials in the past and consistently signed his letters “I am KC and I approve this message,” according to an FBI affidavit.About 15 members of a hazmat team, some totting M4 rifles, entered Curtis’ house today and set up an evidence-gathering area outside. Curtis was formally charged today with sending mail that contained a threat to kill or harm the president and with sending mail containing a threat to injure the president.”

Chinese Government Suspects Human-to-Human Transmission of H7N9 Bird Flu

China is unfortunately following a storied pattern of waiting until critical information is leaked before acknowledging it openly  – according to unofficial sources, as many as 40% of H7N9 cases had no contact with poultry. Exacerbating the pandemic potential of H7N9 are theunique difficulties associated with developing a vaccine to the strain – it’s proven very hard to culture in the lab. However, don’t panic just yet. Even if the virus proves capable of limited human-to-human transmission, further mutations rendering it “casual contact” transmissible would be necessary for a pandemic.

US News – “As the Chinese government openly begins to speculate about the possibility of human-to-human transmission of the H7N9 bird flu strain, an international team of experts, including some from the World Health Organization, have been deployed to investigate the disease in the country. If true, the development would quickly raise concerns of the disease outbreak leading to a pandemic. Flu experts have long warned once a particularly deadly strain of the flu, as H7N9 appears to be – it has killed 17 of the 87 people it has infected – becomes transmissible between humans, it can quickly spread.”

4-year-old bird flu ‘carrier’ worries China

A four-year old in China has emerged as an asymptomatic carrier of H7N9, further complicating epidemiological efforts in the area to discover the source of the outbreak – if you don’t know who’s sick, determining how they became sick becomes very tricky. It is known that the boy’s family handled poultry and fish. Although health investigators are currently looking at “family clusters” of infection,  human-to-human transmission is not suspected.

CNN – “Doctors say the discovery of a 4-year-old carrier of the H7N9 bird flu virus who shows no symptoms of the potentially lethal virus is a worrying development that could make the spread of the infection more difficult to monitor. The Beijing Municipal Health Bureau said the boy was detected from a group of close contacts of the first infection in Beijing and the laboratory results showed the boy was an asymptomatic carrier of the disease.”

Terrorism Updates:

Watertown, Mass., Shut Down in Manhunt for Second Boston Marathon Suspect

The two suspects in the Boston Marathon bombing have been identified as brothers Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, with the former killed during the night. The manhunt continues throughout Watertown for the Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, who has already killed an MIT police officer and hijacked a car. Residents of the Boston suburb are being ordered to remain indoors as police officers comb the area. The two suspects are believed to be of Chechen descent, but have lived in the United States for several years.

ABC News – “”The at-large suspect is considered armed and extremely dangerous. Police are going door to door in search for the second suspect.’We believe this is a terrorist, we believe this is a man that’s come here to kill people,’ Boston Police Commissioner Ed Davis said.”

Up to 40 Dead in Texas Blast

While preliminary investigations at the fertilizer plant in West, Texas indicate an industrial accident, a full investigation into the source of the explosion will take six months. We’ve included it as a potential act of terrorism due to it’s proximity to Waco (less than 20 miles) and  it’s occurring within two days of both the 20th anniversary of the end of the Waco, Texas siege (today) and the Boston Marathon bombing (Monday). Current numbers indicate 160 injured and at least 35 dead or missing.

Wall Street Journal – “[Mayor] Muska, who is one of more than 30 volunteer firefighters in the city, was on his way to help colleagues put out the initial fire at West Fertilizer Co. that began around 6 p.m. Central time on Wednesday night. Volunteer firefighters in the town of about 2,800 people roughly 80 miles south of Dallas tried to extinguish the fire at the industrial facility.About two hours later, a thunderous explosion ripped through the plant, registering as strong as a magnitude 2.1 earthquake, according to federal seismologists. It sent a column of smoke hundreds of feet into the air.”

Highlights include H7N9, China’s SARS lessons, H5N1, the seminal UN global arms treaty, bird flu bureaucracy, and the problems with the term “WMD”. Happy Friday!

H7N9 Update: 14 cases, five fatalities, no evidence of person-to-person transmission

Scientists race to gauge pandemic risk of new bird flu

We’re keeping a very close eye on news about the H7N9 avian flu strain emerging from China. To date there have been fourteen cases with five fatalities.   Unlike the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, this is the first time we’re seeing H7N9 in humans. It’s pandemic potential is still considered low due to its current inability to transmit person-to-person. However, although there have been no confirmed cases of person-to-person transmission, it’s been reported that a person caring for one of the people who died of H7N9 has since developed similar, flu-like symptoms.

Reuters – “Genetic sequence data on a deadly strain of bird flu previously unknown in people show the virus has already acquired some mutations that might make it more likely to cause a human pandemic, scientists say. But there is no evidence so far that the H7N9 flu – now known to have infected nine people in China, killing three – is spreading from person to person, and there is still a chance it might peter out and never fully mutate into a human form of flu.”

Ten years after SARS, what has China learned?

The short answer? It depends on whom you ask. China has improved its communication with the international and scientific community. However, there have been complaints about the lack of clear communication by the Chinese government with its own people, particularly at the time of the virus’ original emergence.

Xinhua – “The news of two men dying from a new variant of bird flu has reminded Chinese of the SARS pandemic that hit the country one decade ago. Many are wondering if the government will handle the situation any better than it did in 2003, should another pandemic break out…Now, on the 10th anniversary of the pandemic, fear is spreading following reports of two Shanghai men who died from H7N9 avian influenza, a strain that has not previously been detected in humans. That fear was aggravated this week after four more patients in neighboring Jiangsu Province were confirmed to have contracted the virus. All four are in critical condition.”

Cambodia reports 10th bird flu case this year

In all the chatter about H7N9, H5N1 seems almost tame. While it may seem high, ten cases in four months is in keeping with expected numbers.

Xinhua – “A six-year-old boy from Southwestern Kampot province was confirmed to have contracted with Avian Influenza H5N1, bringing the number of the cases to 10 and the death toll remained at eight in 2013, a health expert said Wednesday. ‘The boy was admitted to the Kantha Bopha Hospital in Phnom Penh on March 31 for severe pneumonia, and he was tested positive for H5N1 at the Instituts Pasteur on Tuesday,’ Dr. Denis Laurent, deputy director of the hospital, told Xinhua.’The boy is still alive, but in severe conditions (sic).”

UN general assembly passes first global arms treaty

Including everything from battle tanks to light weapons, this is the first UN treaty “aimed at controlling the trade in conventional weapons”, and prohibits the sale of conventional weapons to state in violation of arms embargoes, in support of terrorism, war crimes, genocide, or in use against civilians (it doesn’t regulate domestic sales of arms).

The Guardian – “The United Nations…vot[ed] it through by a large majority despite earlier being blocked by three countries. Member states represented in the UN general assembly voted by 154 to three, with 23 abstentions, to control a trade worth an estimated £46bn a year. The landmark deal went to a vote after Syria, Iran and North Korea – all at odds with the US – blocked its adoption by consensus….It is expected to come into force after the first 50 ratifications next year”

Clinical Notes: Bird Flu Vaccine Delayed at FDA

It’s been an avian-themed report. This piece included in commiseration with of all of us just now getting around to taxes – filing paperwork appropriately with the government is apparently as important for billion-dollar corporations as it is for the rest of us.

MedPage – “GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK) human vaccine against H5N1 avian influenza did not win approval from the FDA, but only on technical grounds that should not keep it off the market for long, the company said. Called Q-Pan H5N1, the product is meant to be stockpiled in case the H5N1 virus becomes capable of causing a pandemic. It received a unanimous endorsement from an FDA advisory committee last November. Nevertheless, GSK said last week that it had received a so-called complete response letter from the agency, indicating that approval was not immediately forthcoming. The company said it was ‘triggered due to an administrative matter that has recently been rectified.'”

Soapbox we love: Let’s All Stop Saying ‘Weapons of Mass Destruction’ Forever

The title says it all. It was arguably too broad when it was just chemical, biological, radiological (mass destruction? a rad bomb? really?) and nuclear, and it seems to only be getting broader.

Wired – “In fact, as a fascinating paper by W. Seth Carus at the National Defense University shows, the Defense Department’s definition of the term has long been problematic. For years, its official definition included ‘high explosives,’ to make it consistent with the federal statute that Harroun ran up against. But ‘most military weaponry relies on high explosive charges,” Carus writes, ‘meaning that even the mortars and grenades used by infantrymen might qualify as WMD.’ The doctrinal answer was ultimately to limit the definition to “chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons capable of a high order of destruction or causing mass casualties.”