Happy first day of winter! This week we are covering updates on Russia’s actions in Ukraine, anthrax outbreaks in parts of Africa, efforts to get the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act reauthorized, and OpenAI’s plan to manage threats posed by its AI platforms. This is the last issue of the Pandora Report for 2023. We will see you next year but, until then, have a happy rest of the holiday season!
Russia Tear Gases Ukrainian Forces
Recent reporting from CNN explained that, in addition to using wave after wave of convicts-turned-recruits, Russia has increasingly begun to use CS gas on Ukrainian forces: “Those fighting in besieged Ukrainian trenches say they now face another threat: the use of gas as a weapon. Nine incidents have been recorded in recent weeks in this area, one Ukrainian combat medic told CNN, in which a caustic and flammable gas had been dropped by drones onto Ukrainian lines, causing one fatality. The gas is used to cause panic and followed by conventional shelling or drone attacks, soldiers impacted said…A Ukrainian intelligence official told CNN the substance deployed by the Russians was a form of CS gas.”
CS (chlorobenzylidenemalononitrile) gas, commonly referred to colloquially as tear gas, is used as a riot control agent. According to the CDC, these agents “…are chemical compounds that temporarily make people unable to function by causing irritation to the eyes, mouth, throat, lungs, and skin.” Use of these agents in war is prohibited under the Chemical Weapons Convention.
The same CNN report later explained that “Two soldiers who survived a gas attack showed CNN medical reports indicating they had been poisoned. “At first I saw smoke,” one told CNN. “We ran out from the trench and the gas suddenly caught fire. The trench was in flames. This gas burns, blinds you, you can’t breathe, shoots down your throat immediately. We didn’t even have a second.”‘
“The alleged use of chemical agents on the battlefield marks another sign of the brutality and mendacity of Russia’s renewed fight for the terrain it lost. Ukraine had hoped for greater advances during the summer toward the Azov Sea, yet now must defend its minor gains.”
Russian Troops Reportedly Dying from “Mouse Fever”
Russian troops in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region are reportedly suffering an outbreak of “mouse fever,” a hemorrhagic fever. Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (HUR) recently reported that “dissatisfaction is growing in the units of the Russian occupation army due to inadequate provision of winter clothing and a complete lack of medical care,” likely contributing to the rapid spread of this disease.
The Kyiv Post also explained that HUR reports that complaints about the outbreak on the front lines fell on deaf ears, with Russian leadership viewing them as “…another manifestation of attempts to avoid combat operations.” HUR has also reported that the disease initially presents with flu-like symptoms, and that it is a viral disease transmitted to humans from rodents via contact with bodily fluids. As the same Kyiv Post article explains, “Symptoms of mouse fever include severe headache, fever up to 40 degrees, rashes and redness, low blood pressure, hemorrhages in the eyes, nausea, and vomiting several times a day. The disease also affects the kidneys, a person infected with mouse fever experiences intense low back pain and will have serious difficulty urinating.”
HUR’s reporting on the outbreak did not identify a specific pathogen, though it did suggest this could be hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), driving online speculation that this outbreak was caused by a hantavirus despite some outlets reporting it was caused by the bacterial rat-bite fever. The WHO explains that HFRS is “…an acute interstitial nephropathy characterized by high fever and varying degrees of renal insufficiency and hemorrhage. HFRS is caused by viruses belonging to the old world lineage of the Hantavirus genus of the family Bunyaviridae.”
The WHO further explains that “Various haemorrhagic fevers with a very similar syndrome have been reported throughout Europe and Asia, notably HFRS in the former Soviet Union, Songo fever in China, epidemic nephritis or epidemic haemorrhagic fever in Eastern Europe and Japan, and Hantaan virus in Korea. Several rodents and other small mammals harbor hantaviruses, and in urban areas, where rodent control is feasible, efforts can be made to reduce contact between humans and rodent excreta.”
Regardless of what is causing this outbreak, this is a tale as old as time. War and disease go hand-in-hand, highlighting the importance of maintaining sanitary practices, particularly when turning to trench warfare. Russia’s military has historically struggled with maintaining sanitary conditions, as noted by Amnesty International in the late 1990s and Russia’s own inspectors in the early 2010s, all of which has conicided with persistent challenges in professionalizing the military and maintaining supply lines during the current conflict.
Five African Countries Report Anthrax Outbreaks
The WHO has confirmed that five countries in eastern and southern Africa are experiencing outbreaks of anthrax, with at least 20 related deaths reported since the start of 2023. There are currently over 1,160 presumed anthrax cases in Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, though only 35 have been confirmed by laboratory testing. Zambia is currently fighting its largest anthrax outbreak since 2011, with nine of its ten provinces impacted. Though experts say this all is not unusual nor unreasonable, it is notable that, in Uganda, many of the presumed cases have tested negative for anthrax, potentially indicating a different disease is circulating.
The WHO explained in its December 11 press release on the matter that, “The outbreaks are presenting varied patterns in the affected countries. In Kenya, three deaths have been reported this year compared with zero fatalities from over 200 suspected cases in 2022. While the disease is endemic in animals in Malawi, the country reported its first ever human case this year. Human anthrax cases have been reported in three districts in Uganda, with 13 deaths compared with two deaths in 2022. The high case fatality ratio is due to patients reporting late to health facilities. In Zimbabwe, human cases have been reported every year since 2019, underscoring the need for stronger preventive actions.”
“Joint multidisciplinary teams have deployed at country level to support assessments, identify gaps and take measures to strengthen the outbreak response. WHO is also working closely with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), United Nations Environment Programme and World Organisation for Animal Health to coordinate response in the affected countries leveraging the One Health Platforms…The outbreaks are likely being driven by multiple factors, including climatic shocks, food insecurity, low risk perception and exposure to the disease through handling the meat of infected animals.”
115 Organizations Urge Congress to Reauthorize PAHPA
A list of 115 organizations is formally calling on Congress to reauthorize the bipartisan Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA), according to a press release from the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee. PAHPA expired on September 30 and has yet to be reauthorized by Congress, though the HELP Committee did pass legislation to reauthorize it in a 17-3 vote this summer.
The HELP Committee explained in its statement “Congress first enacted PAHPA in 2006, largely to address the failures of the federal response following Hurricane Katrina. The legislation sought to support states, local governments, and hospitals so they would be better prepared for future emergencies. It established the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA). It also made improvements to the National Disaster Medical System and other resources to improve medical surge capacity during an emergency. PAHPA was previously reauthorized on a bipartisan basis in 2013 and 2019.”
A list of the 115 organizations involved is available at the link above.
OpenAI Unveils Plan for Managing AI Dangers
OpenAI, the company perhaps most famous for its ChatGPT chatbot, recently announced how it plans to prepare for what it believes to be potential threats posed by the technology it develops. A recent article from The Washington Post explains the plan, reading “OpenAI’s “Preparedness” team, led by MIT AI professor Aleksander Madry, will hire AI researchers, computer scientists, national security experts and policy professionals to monitor the tech, continually test it and warn the company if it believes any of its AI capabilities are becoming dangerous. The team sits between OpenAI’s “Safety Systems” team, which works on such existing problems as infusing racist biases intoAI, and the company’s “Superalignment” team, which researches how to ensure AI doesn’t harm humans in an imagined future where the tech has outstripped human intelligence completely.”
“The preparedness team is hiring national security experts from outside the AI world who can help OpenAI understand how to deal with big risks. It is beginning discussions with organizations, including the National Nuclear Security Administration, which oversees nuclear technology in the United States, to ensure the company can appropriately study the risks of AI, Madry said.”
“The team will monitor how and when OpenAI’s tech can instruct people to hack computers or build dangerous chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, beyond what people can find online through regular research. Madry is looking for people who “really think, ‘How can I mess with this set of rules? How can I be most ingenious in my evilness?’”
“Dr. Jomana Musmar, MS, PhD – Designated Federal Officer and Executive Director – PACCARB”
Check out this conversation with Biodefense PhD Program alumna Jomana Musmar on the Progress, Potential, and Possibilities YouTube channel: “Dr. Jomana Musmar, MS, PhD, is the Designated Federal Officer and Executive Director of the Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria ( https://www.hhs.gov/ash/advisory-comm… ), and Senior Public Health Advisor within the Office of Infectious Diseases and HIV/AIDS Policy ( https://www.hhs.gov/oidp/index.html ), at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).”
“The Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria ( PACCARB – https://www.hhs.gov/ash/advisory-comm… ) is a US federal advisory committee that provides advice, information, and recommendations to the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS Secretary). The council supports and evaluates U.S. government activities focused on fighting antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in human health, animal health, and environmental health. Using this One Health approach, members of the PACCARB have expertise from a range of backgrounds, including academia, industry, public health, advocacy, veterinary, and agricultural production.”
“Dr. Musmar has been managing the PACCARB since its establishment in 2015, during which time she has hosted 24 public meetings and overseen the development of seven reports providing recommendations on a range of issues related to antimicrobial-resistance (AMR) for both human and animal health.”
“Dr. Musmar has over 10 years of Federal Advisory Committee experience, with a focus on the areas of public health, biodefense, and AMR. Her graduate degrees include a Master’s in Biomedical Science Policy from Georgetown University School of Medicine and a Doctorate in Biodefense and Homeland Security from George Mason University.”
“The Health Security Outcomes of APEC and the Biden-Xi Dialogue”
Recent Biodefense MS grad Sophie Hirshfield just published this piece for CSIS, addressing key global health questions following the APEC summit and Biden-Xi meeting. She explains in her introduction, “From November 14 to 16, leaders from the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group met in San Francisco to discuss promoting trade and economic growth across the Pacific region. On the sidelines of the forum, Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping convened for their first in-person meeting in a year. While the meetings provided an opportunity to keep public health priorities on the diplomatic agenda, they led to few meaningful new commitments on U.S.-China health security cooperation.”
“Public Health Agencies Are Using AI Chatbots to Ease Workloads. Is It a Good Idea?”
Biodefense PhD Student Kimberly Ma recently published this piece with The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. In it, she explains in part, “There’s a real risk that large-language models like ChatGPT contribute to online disinformation and misinformation. In a call earlier this year for the safe and ethical use of AI, the World Health Organization (WHO) worried that AI responses “can appear authoritative and plausible to an end user” but be “completely incorrect or contain serious errors, especially for health-related” matters. Similarly, the organization warned AI may be “misused to generate and disseminate highly convincing disinformation in the form of text, audio or video content that is difficult for the public to differentiate from reliable health content.” Just as media organizations have been caught publishing AI-generated content riddled with inaccuracies, public health workers need to ensure they are not accidentally producing well-intentioned deliverables with critical errors. And in an environment when adversarial countries, antivaxxers, and politicians operate individually or in networks to spread disinformation online, public health agencies will be up against bad actors with the same technology they have.”
“Preparing for the Next Pandemic Response Through Strengthened Collaboration”
Donnel Harvin, a member of the Schar School faculty, recently co-authored this white paper for NEMA: “This report synthesizes the insights from the National Emergency Management Association (NEMA) Pandemic Workshop hosted in June of 2023. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded the project. The workshop brought together emergency management directors and state public health officers from eight states to discuss their collaborative response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the very early phases of the response, January 2020 – January 2022. The particular focus was on the identification of friction points, successes, and opportunities for increased collaboration. Federal partners were invited to discuss issues with federal integration into state COVID-19 response efforts. The discussions highlighted a range of complex issues encompassing roles and authorities, data collection and sharing, equity concerns, and communication, with an emphasis on state and local levels as well as rural and urban experiences.”
“Advancing Governance Models for Frontier for AIxBIO: Key Takeaways and Action Items from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security Metting with Industry, Government, and NGOs, 29 November 2023”
Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security recently published a “…summary of high-level findings that identify concrete next steps needed following its recent convening of leading AI labs, executive branch officials, and biosecurity experts…” that “was informed by discussions during a not-for-attribution meeting hosted by the Center. The meeting was attended by around 50 participants, including those from 6 different leading AI companies as well as government officials from the White House and several government agencies with responsibility for managing potential AIxBio risks.”
The report calls for “…the creation of an ongoing public-private forum to facilitate the sharing of important information related to biosecurity risks; a regulatory framework that defines mandatory practices, reporting, and oversight of highly capable AI models; and a legal accountability framework to incentivize developers and deployers of models to adequately address emergent risks.”
“Generative AI and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Will AI Lead to Proliferation?”
Ian Stewart unpacks potential proliferation threats posed by LLMs in this Medium post, writing in part “Large Language Models (LLMs) caught popular attention in 2023 through their ability to generate text based on prompts entered by the user. LLMs have also proven capable of generating code, summarizing text, and adding structure to unstructured text, among others. There remain questions around the real-world usefulness of LLMs in many domains, particularly given some of the difficulties in solving limitations of LLMs such as hallucination. Nonetheless, some have raised concerns about the ability of LLMs to contribute to nuclear, chemical and biological weapons proliferation (CBRN). Put simply, could a person learn enough through an interaction with an LLM to produce a weapon? And if so, would this differ from what the individual could learn by scouring the internet?”
“Poll: Voters Support Bringing EU-Style AI Regulations to the US, Prioritizing Safety Over Speed in Research”
New from the Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute: “A new poll conducted by the Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute (AIPI) shows that the American public supports the passage of the European Union’s AI Act by nearly a 4:1 margin, and 64% support similar regulation in the United States.”
“The survey showed strong public support for a slowdown of AI research and skepticism of tech companies; respondents decisively back federal regulation that curbs rapid AI research and development by private companies. By a 2:1 margin, respondents agree that it is the role of the government to make sure companies don’t go too fast when developing AI models. 75% say the government should restrict what private companies can do when training AI models.”
“AIPI also surveyed public opinion on risky research initiatives across AI development and dangerous virus research—particularly relevant as scientists and the federal government look to revise guidelines on potential pandemic pathogens. 83% of the public is in agreement that the federal government should implement renewed oversight protocols on research experiments using dangerous viruses. When prompted about AI being in such research, 68% say that we should be concerned that bad actors could use AI to create biological weapons.”
“Shaping the Future US Bioeconomy Through Safety, Security, Sustainability, and Social Responsibility”
Attal-Juncqua et al. recently published this article in Trends in Biotechnology: “Biomanufacturing practitioners and researchers describe the norms that should govern the growing, global field, to include safety, security, sustainability, and social responsibility. These ‘4S Principles’ should be broadly adopted so that the future of the field may provide the greatest benefits to society.”
“Stability of Pathogens on Banknotes and Coins: A Narrative Review”
Meister et al. recently published this article in the Journal of Medical Virology: “For the prevention of infectious diseases, knowledge about potential transmission routes is essential. Pathogens can be transmitted directly (i.e. respiratory droplets, hand-to-hand contact) or indirectly via contaminated surfaces (fomites). In particular, frequently touched objects/surfaces may serve as transmission vehicles for different clinically relevant bacterial, fungal, and viral pathogens. Banknotes and coins offer ample surface area and are frequently exchanged between individuals. Consequently, many concerns have been raised in the recent past, that banknotes and coins could serve as vectors for the transmission of disease-causing microorganisms. This review summarizes the latest research on the potential of paper currency and coins to serve as sources of pathogenic viral, bacterial, and fungal agents. In contrast to the current perception of banknotes and coins as important transmission vehicles, current evidence suggests, that banknotes and coins do not pose a particular risk of pathogen infection for the public.”
What We’re Watching 🍿
The Biological Weapons Convention and the Need for a Compliance and Verification Mechanism
New from the Geneva Center for Security Policy: “The GCSP’s Head of Arms Control and Disarmament speaks to three experts on biological security from King’s College London about the start of discussions by the States Parties to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) on compliance and verification. They discuss why a compliance and verification mechanism is needed, what can be learned from the previous verification efforts in other contexts, and what has changed in how verification is done since this was last discussed in the BWC framework over 20 years ago. The experts also discuss what the key elements of any mechanism will need to be, what are the most important bio security incidents, and how countries are working on their preparedness to respond to such incidents. The GCSP will be following the discussions in the BWC closely and stands ready to be a platform to bring together all stakeholders to generate new thinking to strengthen the BWC to respond to today’s bio security challenges.”
What We’re Listening To 🎧
PODCAST | Rethinking Our Defense Against Unknown Biothreats
“Dr. Harshini Mukundan, Program Manager and Scientist for Chemical and Biological Technologies at the Office of National and Homeland Security, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and visiting Scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory sat down with host and AAAS STPF fellow Adejare (Jay) Atanda to discuss her research on pathogen agnostic disease detection and diagnostics, why this is important for biodefense against unknown biothreats, the role of technological innovations in pathogen agnostic detection and diagnostics, limitations of existing technological tools, and the vital importance of public-private partnerships in transforming this field. This conversation also covered the challenges women, people of color and immigrants face as scientists, the importance of mentorship in mitigating these challenges and her own mentorship and advocacy work to educate young girls about STEM careers as a AAAS IF/THEN STEM Ambassador and guest on CBS’s “Mission Unstoppable” among other efforts.”
Listen here.
Poisons and Pestilence: 20 Bonus Episode: No Fire No Thunder with Alastair Hay
Check out this episode with Alastair Hay, discussing his work as a toxicologist as it relates to the prohibition of chemical weapons.
61st ISODARCO Course: Nuclear Order and International Security after Ukraine
“The war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on global security, reviving nuclear fears, undermining the prospects for arms control, and shattering many of the norms and constraints that were the foundation of European security. ISODARCO 2024 will examine the global nuclear order in light of the Ukraine war, focusing on the states, the policies and the technologies that will shape the future in a much more difficult environment. How will we cope with this more dangerous world?”
This course will take place January 7-14, 2024, at the University of Trento. Learn more and register here.
International Conference, CBRNE Research & Innovation
“The last 40 years have demonstrated that both military and civilian populations could be exposed to highly hazardous CBRNE agents following conflicts, natural outbreaks and disasters, industrial incidents or terrorist attacks.”
“Worldwide, researchers, responders and industrial capacities have been commited to provide adapted response to these challenges.”
“Building on the success of the first 5 International Conferences « CBRNE Research and Innovation » which took place in Antibes (2015), Lyon (2017), Nantes (2019), on line (2021) and Lille (2022), we want to give you a new opportunity to build up or strengthen collaborative networks in Strabourg (March 19th – 21rst 2024).”
“The CBRNE R&I Conference is specifically devoted to scientific updates, responders’ feedbacks and expression of needs. It also includes workshops and demonstrations of innovative materials, technologies and procedures, according to the following themes: DETECTION – IDENTIFICATION, PROTECTION – DECONTAMINATION, MEDICAL COUNTERMEASURES, RISKS & CRISIS MANAGEMENT.”
“Looking forward to your proposals for communication and to welcoming you at Strasbourg in March 2024!”
Learn more here.
Registration for GHS 2024 Now Open
Registration is now open for the Global Health Security 2024 conference in Sydney, Australia. This iteration will take place 18-21 June, 2024. The call for abstracts is also still open. “The mission of the Global Health Security conference is to provide a forum where leaders, researchers, policy-makers, and representatives from government, international organisations, civil society, and private industry from around the world can engage with each other, review the latest research and policy innovations, and agree solutions for making the world safer and healthier. To that end, our mission is to help foster a genuinely multidisciplinary community of practice that is committed to working collaboratively to enhance global health security and eliminate disease, irrespective of its origin or source.”
Vote: 2023 Arms Control Person(s) of the Year Nominees
“Since 2007, the independent, nongovernmental Arms Control Association has nominated individuals and institutions that have, in the previous 12 months, advanced effective arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament solutions and raised awareness of the threats posed by mass casualty weapons.”
“In a field that is often focused on grave threats and negative developments, the Arms Control Person(s) of the Year contest aims to highlight several positive initiatives—some at the grassroots level, some on the international scale—designed to advance disarmament, nuclear security, and international peace, security, and justice.”
“Voting will take place between Dec. 8, 2023, and Jan. 11, 2024. The results will be announced on Jan. 12, 2024. Follow the discussion on social media using the hashtag #ACPOY2023.”
Learn about the nominees and vote here.
The Pandora Report 