Pandora Report 10.30.2015

The witching hour is upon us! Halloween is tomorrow and with that we must ask, how good are your zombie fighting skills? Good news if you’re in Arlington, VA, as it’s considered one of the top ten cities to survive the zombie apocalypse – good thing GMU has a campus there (we biodefense folks are the ultimate planners!). This week was busy with the release of the Blue Ribbon Study Panel on Biodefense’s National Report. I was able to attend the panel event, so read on for my comments and your weekly dose of biodefense news!

DSC_3586GMU Biodefense Program News & Alumni 
We’ve added a new page to salute our biodefense alumni and all that they do with their GMU education. GMU Biodefense students have a diverse background in their education, experiences, and interests, and we absolutely love getting to brag about all the amazing things they accomplish after their studies. Whether it’s a new publication or an award, we hope to pass along their accolades, so please check out our new page to see how GMU Biodefense alumni are contributing to the world of global health security!

12111966_10104338304988922_3051154411712634566_n-1Blue Ribbon Study Panel on Biodefense Releases Report– I had the pleasure of attending the Blue Ribbon panel on Wednesday, in which they reviewed their report, “A National Blueprint for Biodefense: Leadership and Major Reform Needed to Optimize Efforts”. The panel event saw Senator Joe Lieberman, former Governor Tom Ridge, and former Homeland Security Advisor, Kenneth L. Wainstein, discuss the challenges of biodefense, the report, and answer several questions regarding their findings. The report is comprised of 33 recommendations that range from unification of biodefense budgeting to optimizing the National Biosurveillance Integration System and to improving surveillance and planning for animal and zoonotic outbreaks. Along with these 33 recommendations, there are 100 action items. Perhaps one of the biggest take-aways from the report is the recommendation that the Office of the Vice President of the US assume authority over biodefense efforts. There is heavy emphasis on a unified budget and centralization to combat the redundancy and current siloing we see in existing programs.  Senator Lieberman discussed the role of the research and private sector’s involvement, with former Gov. Ridge noting that “we need to start thinking differently about how we incentivize the private sector.” The panel discussed that despite our past efforts, the Ebola outbreak in 2014 showed that the “threat is real, lets not wait for it to occur” and as former Gov. Ridge noted, “we don’t give bioweapon threats the attention they need. The threat is ahead of us.” Senator Lieberman commented on the Ebola situation,  noting that our response was dismal and despite 10 months of warning, basic human errors led to a failure in providing hospitals with general guidelines. Whether it is an intentional bioweapons attack, outbreak of an emerging infectious disease, or unintentional, accidental release due to lab safety errors, the panel’s goal of having centralized leadership reveals the complex nature of these challenges. Also, did I mention that they included infection control in their guidelines (#18)?! Overall, I found the event highly engaging and was pleased to hear the panel members approach these topics with not only a sense of urgency, but a holistic manner to meet the challenges of biodefense.

Jump Start – Accelerating Government Response to A National Biological Crisis
UPMC Center for Health Security has released their July 2015 report that “examines a scenario in which the US is suddenly faced with a newly emerged intentional biological threat that could produce catastrophic public health consequences and threaten our economy, government, and social structure.” The report reviews governance, public health response, medical countermeasures, healthcare system response, decontamination and remediation, and environmental detection, while making recommendations. Utilizing published literature and subject matter expert interviews, the Jump Start report scenario occurs in central Moscow subway stations and Red Square. It discusses responses in a post-Amerithrax world and highlights the need to stop the spread of infectious diseases while emphasizing that in a similar scenario, the US government should push out table-top exercises at a national level to test readiness to biothreats. The role of healthcare infrastructure and capacity comes into play, highlighting the limitations that diagnostic testing plays – even if the solutions aren’t available. I’d be curious to see a more detailed analysis of how we approach novel agents and the time-lag this can often cause in diagnosis. Also – what would be the ethical dilemmas regarding invasive medical treatments for a novel agent? Medical ethics became a very real issue during Ebola preparedness (perhaps not as well discussed in media circuits) as the invasive care capabilities of healthcare professionals in the US correlates with increasing risk for disease transmission.

White House Calls for Better Biosafety –  As fallout from several lab safety breaches, the White House issued recommendations that focus on labs that are registered to work with pathogens from the Select Agents list. Ranging from increased training to assessing the number of high containment labs we have in the US, this memo, with a deadline for the recommendations, sets the tone for change when it comes to biosafety.

Saudi Arabi MERS Cluster – reports from Saudi Arabi’s Ministry of Health have confirmed a healthcare-associated cluster of MERS-CoV cases that involved seven individuals. The initial patient was seen in the emergency department of Almana General Hospital, with five other patients exposed in the hospital, and an additional case that is believed to not have had a healthcare exposure. All patients are under observation in the King Fahad Hospital. One of the patients is reported to be a nurse. In previous weeks, there was a cluster of cases related to janitors living together in Riyadh.

Stories You May Have Missed:

  • The African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has approved a $33.3 million grant towards a Post Ebola Recovery Social Investment Fund (PERSIF) for efforts in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The US State Department is contributing a $5 million grant towards this to help support livelihood development for women, girls, and orphans from the affected countries. The goal is to build resilience in the affected countries and strengthen the economic systems while improving governance and communication.
  • Nigeria was just removed from the WHO’s list of polio-endemic countries! After halting the spread of wild poliovirus transmission during a 15 month period, Nigeria was declared free of the disease! The WHO is continuing to work on the remaining two polio-endemic countries; Afghanistan and Pakistan.
  • Three more cases of Ebola in Guinea were reported this week. The three patients are all family members, with one being a pregnant woman. Guinea experienced several cases last week while Liberia has been EVD-free since September 3rd and Sierra Leone just passed their six week mark without a new case.
  • The WHO announces that TB surpassed HIV as the leading cause of death from infectious disease in 2014. Better surveillance enabled global public health teams to identify new cases. In Indonesia alone, there were one million new cases reported this year. The WHO notes that while surveillance efforts are revealing new cases, progress is still insufficient, especially in regards to drug resistance.

 

Week in DC: Events 10.26.15-10.30.15

Monday, October 26, 2015
20th Anniversary of Dayton Peace Accords Series – The Balkan Wars of the 1990s: Reflection and Reconciliation Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Time: 10am
Location: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Nitze Building1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036(map)
20th Anniversary of Dayton Peace Accords Series – The Balkan Wars of the 1990s: Reflection and Reconciliation Panelists: Thomas J. Miller Former U.S. Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina Robert E. Hunter Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Robert M. Beecroft Former OSCE Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina Moderator: Sasha Toperich CTR SAIS Senior Fellow and Director, Mediterranean Basin Initiative

Putin’s Crimean gamble: Russia, Ukraine, and the new Cold War Brookings Institution
Time: 10:30am-noon
Location: Brookings Institution1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036(map)
Since the time of Catherine the Great, Crimea has been a global tinderbox. Most recently, the world was stunned when the forces of Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded and seized Crimea in March 2014. In the months since, Putin’s actions in Crimea, eastern Ukraine and, more recently, in Syria have provoked a sharp deterioration in East-West relations. Basic questions have been raised about Putin’s provocative policies, his motivations, and the future of U.S.-Russian relations—and whether the world has now entered a new Cold War.On October 26, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host Nonresident Senior Fellow Marvin Kalb for the launch of his new book, “Imperial Gamble: Putin, Ukraine, and the New Cold War” (Brookings Institution Press, 2015). In “Imperial Gamble,” Kalb examines Putin’s actions in Ukraine, the impact on East-West relations, and how the future of the post-Cold War world hangs on the controversial decisions of one reckless autocrat, Vladimir Putin.Joining the discussion are Thomas Friedman, The New York Times columnist, and Nina Khrushcheva, professor of international relations at The New School. Brookings President Strobe Talbott will provide introductory remarks, and Martin Indyk, Brookings executive vice president, will moderate the discussion.After the program, Kalb and the panelists will take audience questions.

Tuesday, October 27, 2015
How Data Can Fight Foodborne DiseasesCenter for Data Innovation
Time: 9:30-11am
Location: Goethe-Institut Washington812 7th St NW, Washington, DC 20001 (map)
Every year, one in six Americans—48 million individuals—get sick from contaminated food. Over the past few years, public health officials have worked diligently to use data to quickly identify and track outbreaks of foodborne disease and alert consumers. In particular, with many instances of food poisoning originating in restaurants, cities around the country have begun publishing restaurant health inspection scores as open data so local business review websites like Yelp can integrate this data into their apps and get the information into the hands of users. Public health officials also are beginning to use data culled from social media to identify likely hotspots of foodborne illness and prioritize inspections accordingly. Join the Center for Data Innovation for a panel discussion about how technology experts and government leaders are marshaling open data to improve food safety and how civic tech applications can help address more of these types of public health concerns in the future.

U.S. Policy Toward North Korea: The Case for Instituting a More Effective, Human Rights-Centric Approach Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Time: 9:30am
Location: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Nitze Building1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036(map)
The International Bar Association (North America), Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights, Defense Forum Foundation, North Korea Freedom Coalition, The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, US-Korea Institute at SAIS, Yonsei Center for Human Liberty and Freedom House are convening this conference to bring together decision-makers on Capitol Hill and in the Administration, as well as civil society, to discuss the importance of making human rights a central pillar of U.S. policy toward North Korea.  A keynote speech will be delivered by Justice Michael Kirby, who was appointed by UN Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon to chair the UN Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in North Korea. The event is hosted by The International Bar Association (North America), Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights, Defense Forum Foundation, North Korea Freedom Coalition, The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, US-Korea Institute at SAIS, and Yonsei Center for Human Liberty and Free

Wednesday, October 28, 2015
International Forum for Women’s Food Leadership -Global Gender Program (GGP), Women’s Food Leadership Initiative (WFL)
Time: Tuesday and Wednesday, 8:30am-6pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs1957 E St NW, Washington, DC 20052 (map)
Room: 602
This two-day public event brings together women entrepreneurs, CEOs, scientists, and industry leaders from Latin America and Africa, food policy professionals, and academics to discuss what works in promoting women’s agricultural entrepreneurship. Panelists will address successful strategies for starting, growing, and managing agribusinesses in the Global South. Keynote speakers will offer perspectives based on grounded experience and point the way forward.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

HDIAC Webinar Series: Biosurveillance – Homeland Defense & Security Information Analysis Center 
Time: 2pm EST
The Homeland Defense & Security Information Analysis Center is proud to present the ninth webinar in our 2015 series on October 29, 2015 at 2 p.m. EST. Registration is required for this event.
Webinar Description: This webinar will focus on available biosurveillance data and data sources, preparation and attributes. The recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa is one example of using biosurveillance data and the limitations of consequence acceptance and management in resource-limited locations. While early warning and situational awareness are important, that importance is lost without rapid, decisive and appropriate actions. Further, the One World Health paradigm and the key role of animals in certain human disease outbreaks is stressed. Which data streams or, more likely which combination of data streams, will best serve various biosurveillance goals is largely unknown. Cloud computing, High Performance Computing and Advanced Predictive Analytics/Machine Learning are being applied to streaming biosurveillance data to clarify the practical significance of multiple data stream analysis in identifying and predicting disease outbreaks. Tactical biosurveillance is also considered in terms of data generation by a number of sensors to provide warfighters immediate situational awareness.

The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict– RAND Corporation
Time: 9:15am
Location: RAND1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202 (map)
After decades of failed efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, hopes for ending the standoff are dim. But could putting a price on the impasse lead to meaningful policy discussion? Join us to learn about a RAND study that examined the potential net costs and benefits over the next 10 years of five alternatives to the status quo: a two-state solution, coordinated unilateral withdrawal by Israel from most of the West Bank, uncoordinated unilateral withdrawal by Israel from some of the West Bank, nonviolent resistance by Palestinians, a violent Palestinian uprising.

Governing Climate-Induced Migration and DisplacementElliott School of International Affairs
Time: 6-7pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052 (map)
Ahead of the upcoming Climate Negotiations in Paris (CoP21) this December, Dr. Andrea Simonelli will discuss the global implications of climate change for displacement and refugees, as well as the role of international organizations and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCC). Dr. Simonelli will also discuss her newly released book Governing Climate Change Induced Migration: IGO Expansion and Global Policy Implications, which evaluates climate displacement from a political science perspective. This presentation will delve into the potential expansion and the structural constraints faced by intergovernmental organizations to tackle climate induced migration and displacement. Join us for an in-depth evaluation of how this urgent global issue relates to the current climate governance gap, including human and traditional security concerns.

Friday, October 30, 2015
Dialogue on Defense 2015 Association of Government Relations Professionals
Time: noon-1:30pm
Location: Hall of States444 North Capitol Street, NW, Washington, DC (map)
On Friday, October 30th at 12:00 noon, AGRP will be hosting a panel of professional staffers from the four key Congressional defense oversight committees – the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee (HAC-D), House Armed Services Committee (HASC), the Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee (SAC-D), and the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC).

Preparing for Paris: What to Expect from the U.N.’s 2015 Climate Change Conference- Cato Institute
Time: 10am-4:30pm
Location: Cato Institute 1000 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001 (map)
In late November world leaders will gather in Paris at the United Nations Climate Change Conference for what is viewed as the last great chance for a sweeping international agreement to limit carbon dioxide emissions. The consequences of this gathering may be enormous. Please join us to hear distinguished climate scientists and legal experts assess the issues sure to drive the debate before, during, and after the Paris meeting. Conference attendees will receive a free print edition of the new ebook Lukewarming: The New Climate Science That Changes Everything, by Patrick Michaels and Paul Knappenberger, being released in the next several weeks.

Pandora Report 10.23.2015

Happy Infection Prevention Week! Make sure to give any infection preventionists you know a big hug or at least a hearty handshake (only clean hands though!). Not only do we get to celebrate National Infection Prevention week, but it’s also National Biosafety Stewardship Month, so get your party hand sanitizer ready to go and let the frivolity begin! Foodborne illness is the name of the game this week and we’ll be discussing outbreaks. Friendly reminder – the influenza vaccine is available in most offices/clinics now, so get your flu shot as there have already been cases springing up across the US. Fun fact – did you know that a report published this week identified Yersinia pestis in the tooth of a Bronze Age individual, which means there were plague infected humans 3,300 years earlier than we thought!

National Biosafety Stewardship Month – October is National Biosafety Stewardship Month (thanks NIH!) to celebrate and encourage people to focus on biosafety policies, practices, and procedures. Given the lab biosafety issues we’ve seen recently, I think we can all safely (or should I say, “biosafely”?) agree that a little extra attention to these issues and the promotion of better practices is a great thing. Institutions are encouraged to use more of a just culture approach to incident reporting and to promote public transparency. Happy National Biosafety Stewardship Month!

Water Quality for the Olympic Games in Rio De Janeiro, 2016
The 2016 Summer Olympics are fast approaching and with any large event, health issues become a main concern. The WHO is providing technical advice to the Brazilian national authorities regarding public health concerns, as well as to the International Olympic Committee and the Local Organizing Committee. Clean drinking water, sewage pollution, and a host of other health issues can become a nightmare during such a large-scale event. While there aren’t recommendations for specific viral testing of the water, the WHO does encourage additional testing in the event of an outbreak. Sanitary inspections and other preventative procedures are being recommended to avoid outbreaks and public health issues. As we get closer to the 2016 Olympics, it is very likely concerns over vector-borne diseases will be addressed through vector control and public health education.

CDC Launches Redesigned FOOD Tool for Foodborne Outbreaks 

Courtesy of CDC FOOD Tool
Courtesy of CDC FOOD Tool

The CDC has updated their online foodborne illness outbreak investigation tool! The Foodborne Outbreak Online Database Tool (FOOD Tool) allows the user to search the outbreak database by state, food, ingredient, year, location of food preparation, and organism. The FOOD Tool also provides the case information related to the outbreak, so users can see the number of affected persons, hospitalizations, deaths and laboratory-confirmed organisms. This database pulls from CDC’s Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System (FDOSS) and allows users to not only look at data and trends over time, but also compare their cases to other outbreaks.

Syrian Refugee Resettlement and Why We Should Be Letting Them All In 
Dr. Trevor Thrall, one of our amazing GMU Biodefense professors, has written a piece for The Atlantic on the importance and benefits of taking in all Syrian refugees. Dr. Thrall discusses the limitations of addressing the root cause of the Syrian conflict and how the US and its European allies should take in refugees. Discussing the military alternatives to the Syrian crisis, he states, “going in militarily is not the answer, then. Instead, those civilians under threat should get out. Refugees typically receive support in the countries to which they flee, but the vast numbers involved in this case threaten to overwhelm Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon, which have so far accommodated the vast majority of the outflow.” Dr. Thrall points out that while resettlement would cost a substantial amount of money, it would cost far less than military intervention and you simply can not ignore the moral superiority in aiding refugees.

Chipotle’s Bad Tomatoes Came From Nation’s Largest Field Producer
To our readers in Minnesota, did you happen to eat at a Chipotle in August? If so, we hope you weren’t one of the affected individuals that contracted Salmonella Newport as a result of contaminated tomatoes. The Minnesota Department of Health investigated the 64 cases resulting from this outbreak, however it was just released that the contaminated tomatoes were actually supplied by Six L’s Packing Co (doing business as Lipman Produce), which is actually one of the largest tomato suppliers in the US. Packing 15 million boxes of tomatoes this past year, Lipman was later dropped as a supplier by Chipotle after learning of the source of contaminated produce. The tomatoes were removed but it’s estimated that during the window of exposure, roughly 560,000 people consumed Chipotle. The good news is that we’re out of the incubation period, so if you happened to eat at a Minnesota Chipotle, you’re in the clear.

Stories You May Have Missed:

  • 80 Illnesses Linked to Shigella Outbreak; CA Seafood Restaurant Closed –  Mariscos San Juan in San Jose, CA is currently closed after the Santa Clara County Health Department connected a recent outbreak of Shigella to their food. While the exact source hasn’t been identified, over 93 people were sickened in relation to contaminated food at the restaurant.
  • Subway to Phase Out Poultry Products Raised With Antibiotics–  On Tuesday, Subway Restaurants announced that they will be transitioning to only serve poultry products that have been raised without antibiotics by early next year. Other chain restaurants, like Chick-fil-A and Chipotle, are jumping on the train to phase out chicken and turkey products that were raised with antibiotics.
  • Scottish Nurse and Ebola Complications – Pauline Cafferkey continues to battle post-Ebola complications. Reports last week noted neurological issues and it was recently reported that she has meningitis after the virus persisted in her brain and CSF after her initial recovery. Ongoing research is looking into the long-term effects of the disease as the West African outbreak was the largest in history and researchers have never had the opportunity to look at chronic issues associated with disease recovery.

Week in DC: Events 10.19-10.23

Monday, October 19, 2015
The Syrian Refugee Crisis: Balancing Humanitarian and Security Challenges – Bipartisan Policy Center
Time: 11am-noon
Location: Bipartisan Policy Center1225 I Street, NW Suite 1000, Washington, D.C. 20005(map)
The civil war in Syria has caused one of the largest displacements of persons in recent history, creating humanitarian, political, and security challenges that the United States and its allies now confront. More than half of Syrians—some 12 million—are displaced. Of that number, more than 4 million have fled Syria’s borders, with millions living in neighboring countries in the region. Hundreds of thousands more are trying to make their way to European countries in order to claim asylum and approximately 1,500 Syrians have received asylum in the United States. Meanwhile, as EU and U.S. leaders work to address this flow of refugees, the Islamic State extremist group has boasted of disguising thousands of terrorists as refugees in order to infiltrate them into Western countries, and a recently released report by the House Homeland Security Committee’s bipartisan task force found that international efforts to secure borders and stem the flow of foreign fighters have been woefully ineffective. Join the Bipartisan Policy Center for a discussion on the humanitarian and security dimensions of the refugee crisis and how the two can be balanced and should be reconciled to create a coherent U.S. and global policy response.

The Growth of Isis and The Deterioration of Women’s Rights in the Middle EastWomen’s Foreign Policy Group
Time: 1pm
Location: The Wilderness Society1615 M Street, NW Washington, DC (map)
Luncheon and ProgramGeorge Washington University  Dr. Haleh Esfandiari, the former and founding director of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, is a public policy fellow at the Wilson Center. She has had a rich and varied career. In her native Iran, she was a journalist, served as deputy secretary general of the Women’s Organization of Iran, and was the deputy director of a cultural foundation where she was responsible for the activities of several museums and art and cultural centers. Esfandiari taught Persian at Oxford and, prior to joining the Wilson Center, she taught Persian, Persian literature, and courses on the women’s movement in Iran at Princeton. She was also a fellow at the Wilson Center from 1995 to 1996. Esfandiari has authored and edited several books including, My Prison, My Home: One Woman’s Story of Captivity in Iran (2009). She has also written numerous articles and op-eds including ISIS’s Cruelty toward Women Gets Scant Attention and ISIS Says the Quran Allows Enslaving Women. Will Clerical Leaders Respond? Esfandiari has received numerous awards for her work, is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and serves on the boards of the Peace Research Endowment and the Project on Middle East Democracy. Tara Sonenshine (Moderator), coordinator for global partnerships at Planet Forward, is a former fellow at George Washington University’s School of Media and Public Affairs. Previously, she served as Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs and before that, as the executive vice president of USIP. Prior to joining USIP, she was a strategic communications adviser to many international organizations including USIP, the International Crisis Group, CARE, and the IWMF. Sonenshine served in various capacities at the White House during the Clinton administration, including transition director and director of foreign policy planning for the NSC. She was an editorial producer of ABC News’ Nightline, where she worked for more than a decade. She was also an off-air reporter at the Pentagon for ABC’s World News Tonight and is the recipient of 10 News Emmy Awards for coverage of international affairs.
Click here to register

Tuesday, October 20, 2015
Accelerating Defense Innovation: Lessons from Silicon Wadi Atlantic Council
Time: 10:30-11:45am
Location: Atlantic Council1030 15th St NW, Washington, DC 20005 (map) Room: 12th Floor (West Tower)
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security for a Captains of Industry event with Elbit Systems of America President and CEO Raanan Horowitz, which will take place at the Atlantic Council headquarters on October 20, 2015 from 10:30 a.m. – 11:45 a.m. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter has called for the defense establishment to engage the hub of commercial innovation, Silicon Valley, to fuel a third offset strategy. As befits the “start-up nation,” Israel has been comingling its defense and commercial technologies over many years. Elbit Systems has played an important part in this approach to leveraging commercial technology for military innovation. Raanan Horowitz will share his company’s experience of accelerating innovation in partnership with Israel’s Silicon Wadi in front of an Atlantic Council audience.

Perilous Partners: The Benefits and Pitfalls of America’s Alliances with Authoritarian Regimes – Cato Institute
Time: noon-1:30pm
Location: Cato Institute1000 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001 (map)
Featuring the authors Ted Galen Carpenter, Senior Fellow, Cato Institute; and Malou Innocent, Adjunct Scholar, Cato Institute; with comments by Andrew J. Bacevich, Professor Emeritus of History and International Relations, Boston University; and Jacob Heilbrunn, Editor, The National Interest; moderated by Christopher Preble, Vice President for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute. Liberal democracies such as the United States face an acute dilemma in the conduct of foreign relations. American national interests sometimes require cooperation with repressive, corrupt, or otherwise odious regimes. But close working relationships with autocratic regimes should not be undertaken lightly. Such partnerships risk compromising, or even making a mockery of, America’s values of democratic governance, civil liberties, and free markets. In their new book, Perilous Partners: The Benefits and Pitfalls of America’s Alliances with Authoritarian Regimes, Cato Institute senior fellow Ted Galen Carpenter and Cato adjunct scholar Malou Innocent contend that U.S. officials have amassed a less-than-stellar record of grappling with ethical dilemmas. When are alliances with “friendly dictators” necessary for America’s security? When are such alliances a gratuitous betrayal of fundamental American values? And when is the situation a close call? Please join the authors and two distinguished commentators for a spirited discussion of these and other relevant questions.

Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Master’s Open House
Learn more about the GMU School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs Masters’ programs on Wednesday, October 21, 2015 at 6:30pm at our Arlington Campus, Founders Hall, Room 126. This informational sessional will discuss our Master’s programs ranging from Public Administration, Biodefense, Political Science, Health and Medical Policy, etc.

Thursday, October 22, 2015
Cyber Intelligence and Security after the OPM BreachInstitute of World Politics
Time: 11:30am
Location: Institute of World Politics1521 16th Street NW Washington, DC (map)
The data breach of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management that exposed millions of records about current, former and aspiring national security clearance holders has underscored the value of an effective cyber intelligence program. As the federal government and its industry partners act to remediate the short- and long-term consequences, panelists will discuss the importance of cyber intelligence and other security measures to address vulnerabilities potentially exploited by the breach, such as social engineering, and mitigate the considerable post-breach risks that remain.
Register here

Friday, October 23, 2015
Grand Strategy: National Security Doctrines and National Security Strategy, past, present and futureInstitute of World Politics
Time: 4:30pm
Location: Institute of World Politics1521 16th Street NW Washington, DC (map)
Dr. Lamont Colucci has experience as a diplomat with the U.S. Dept. of State and is today an Associate Professor and Chairman of Politics and Government at Ripon College. His primary area of expertise is U.S. national security and U.S. foreign policy. At Ripon, he is the coordinator for the National Security Studies program and teaches courses on national security, foreign policy, intelligence, terrorism, and international relations. He has published a book entitled Crusading Realism: The Bush Doctrine and American Core Values After 9/11, and was contributing author of another book entitled The Day That Changed Everything: Looking at the Impact of 9/11 at the End of the Decade. In 2012, he finished a two volume series entitled The National Security Doctrines of the American Presidency: How they Shape our Present and Future. In 2012, he became the Fulbright Scholar in Residence at the Diplomatic Academy in Vienna, Austria. He has undergraduate and graduate degrees from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a doctorate in politics from the University of London, England. In 2007 he was the recipient of Ripon’s Severy Excellence in Teaching award and in 2010 the Underkofler Outstanding Teaching Award. In 2015 he received the national Significant Sig award of the Sigma Chi Fraternity. Dr. Colucci is also an occasional columnist for the Washington TimesNational ReviewWeekly Standard, and Defense News. He is a weekly columnist for U.S. News and World Report. He is also Senior Fellow in National Security Affairs for the American Foreign Policy Council and is Advisor in National Security and Foreign Affairs, to the NATO-based Conference of Defence Associations Institute. He served as founding interim Director for the Center for Politics at Ripon College. You can find out more at lamontcolucci.com.
Register here 

Leading at the Nexus of Development and DefenseCenter for Strategic and International Studies
Time: 10-11:30am
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036(map)
Please save the date for an armchair conversation with General John F. Kelly. General Kelly will discuss his career serving in the United States Marine Corps and the defining challenges he faced in maintaining U.S. and regional security. He will share his experience working in areas of conflict and supporting U.S. defense policy through effective development efforts. General Kelly is currently commander of U.S. Southern Command. A four star general, Kelly presided over much of the U.S. involvement in Iraq in 2003 and 2004, later returning to command Multi-National Force-West. He is a veteran of Operation Desert Storm and holds numerous military awards and honors, including the Defense Distinguished Service Medal. Following his service in the Persian Gulf War, he served as the Commandant’s Liaison Officer to the U.S. House of Representatives. Kelly received his B.A. from the University of Massachusetts in Boston and graduated from the National War College in 1995.
This event is part of CSIS’ s ongoing ‘Chevron Forum on Development’ series, which seeks to highlight innovative approaches to global development.
Please RSVP to ChevronForum@csis.org .

Pandora Report 10.16.2015

What a busy week in the world of biodefense! First, let’s give a round of applause for Global Handwashing Day (and now, go wash your hands!). This week we saw a nurse from the UK experience Ebola-associated complications months after her recovery. The CDC released a report stating that 17 states exceeded their recommendations for Ebola screening/monitoring and a recent study discussed vaccination rates and herd immunity. Let’s not forget that we’ve got another segment on 2016 Presidential candidate chatter on nonproliferation, a call for papers, and an open house on GMU’s Master’s program. Grab your morning coffee/tea and let’s explore this week’s biodefense news!

Global Handwashing Day 
Global Handwashing Day was Thursday, October 15th, but really we should be celebrating it every day! It may seem like a simple thing but the truth is that hand hygiene is one of the most important things you can do to prevent the spread of infection. Whether it’s a hospital-acquired infection or avoiding illness in the workplace, hand hygiene is the first line of defense. The WHO estimates that hand hygiene, just in healthcare, saved millions of lives in the last years. The CDC even calls it the “do-it-yourself” vaccine – five simple steps (wet, lather, scrub, rinse, dry) to help prevent the spread of infections. Many people think it’s a small or “easy” thing, but coming from an infection preventionist, it’s the small things that make the biggest difference. You’d be surprised how many organisms we carry around on our hands and on fomites, so using alcohol-based hand sanitizer or washing with soap and water is the only way to get rid of those. University of Arizona professor, Dr. Gerba, (we lovingly referred to him as Dr. Germ – funny enough, he even gave one of his children the middle name of Escherichia!) has focussed much of his research on the household and public objects we may not realize are covered in germs. Perhaps the most important take-away from Global Handwashing Day isn’t just its importance in healthcare, but its role as an important part of disease prevention everywhere. In the U.S.  we’re fortunate to have access to the resources that allow us to have phenomenal hand hygiene practices however, it’s the behavior we tend to fall short on. From today forward, I encourage you to make a personal decision to be vigilant in hand hygiene.

Last Call for Papers – Women’s Health in Global Perspective!
Papers sought for a special issue and workshop of World Medical & Health Policy on “Women’s Health in Global Perspective,” to contribute to understanding and improve policy related to women’s health and wellbeing.  Forces ranging from the economic to the climactic have human repercussions whose genesis and solutions demand consideration of their global context.  A wealth of recent research and inquiry has considered the particular plight of women, who often suffer disproportionately from lack of education, compromised nutrition, poverty, violence and lack of job opportunities and personal freedom.  The Workshop on Women’s Health in Global Perspective will consider the broad ranging social determinants of health on a global scale that importantly influence health outcomes for women everywhere, which in turn has implications for economic, political and social development.
Abstract submission deadline (250 words): October 16, 2015 Contact: Bonnie Stabile, Deputy Editor, bstabile@gmu.edu
Notification of selected abstracts: November 13, 2015

Presidential Candidates on Nonproliferation Part II
GMU’s Greg Mercer has put together a wonderful second part to his series on one of our favorite topics (nonproliferation) and what the 2016 presidential candidates are saying about it. Check out Greg’s review of these candidates’ stance so we can track how they might change over the course of the election.

west-africa-distribution-map
Source: CDC

Updates and Mapping Ebola
BBC recently published a nice overview of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Since the first case 18 months ago, it has been a whirlwind, in more ways than one, for those of us in the public health/global health security world. Cheerfully, the outbreak region has officially gone two weeks without a new case! Unfortunately, Pauline Cafferkey, the Scottish nurse who was treated and recovered from Ebola in December of 2014, is in critical condition due to a late Ebola-related complication. It was just released that her complications are neurological, including severe central nervous system (CNS) disorder and that the virus was detected in her spinal fluid. Scottish public health officials did identify 58 close contacts and offered them the SV-EBOV vaccine.

Master’s Open House
Learn more about the GMU School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs Masters’ programs on Wednesday, October 21, 2015 at 6:30pm at our Arlington Campus, Founders Hall, Room 126. This informational sessional will discuss our Master’s programs ranging from Public Administration, Biodefense, Political Science, Health and Medical Policy, etc.

Imported Measles and Need for Vaccination –This past week at the IDWeek 2015 meeting, scientists reported on a study reviewing measles vaccination rates in the US and susceptible children in relation to the number of measles cases that have occurred. They noted, “this analysis highlights the need for high measles vaccination coverage to support population-level immunity and prevent reestablishment of indigenous measles transmission in the United States.” The Daily Beast also incorporated this into an article on diminishing herd immunity and anti-vaxxers.

Avian Influenza Vaccine Added to National Veterinary Stockpile
APHIS (United States Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Services) awarded contracts to two companies to ensure manufacturing of the vaccine for avian influenza. The goal is to strengthen the Agency National Veterinary Stockpile. “This action is being taken to develop the Agency’s National Veterinary Stockpile., and does not signal a decision to vaccinate for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). While APHIS has not approved the use of vaccine to respond to HPAI, the Agency is preparing to ensure that vaccine is available should the decision be made to use it during a future outbreak.”

Stories You May Have Missed:

  • International Infection Prevention Week is next week! October 18-24, 2015 will celebrate the importance of infection prevention and control in healthcare. Let’s celebrate by not just washing our hands, but also considering all the small ways we can prevent the spread of germs in our homes and workplaces!
  • Salmonella Cucumber Outbreak – The CDC has released new data on the Salmonella Poona outbreak related to imported Mexican cucumbers. As of October 14th, there have been 757 people infected across 36 states and 4 deaths related to the outbreak.
  • DHS Wants to Revive Terrorism Alert System – In wake of the attacks in Chattanooga, President Obama’s security officials are initiating a review of the nation’s terrorism alert system to support what many consider a growing threat of domestic attacks. DHS wishes to revise and restart the National Terrorism Alert System to better respond to these evolving attacks.

The Candidates on Nonproliferation – Part II

The Candidates on Nonproliferation – Part 2
By Greg Mercer

I initially set out to write this as a candidate-by-candidate look at what the 2016 crop had to say about an issue near and dear to Biodefense students’ hearts: nonproliferation.  As it turns out, though, not many candidates have well-developed stances on highly specific policy issues (or any issues, depending on how serious a candidate we’re talking about) more than a year from the general election.  Lucky for us though, there’s been a major nonproliferation news event to drive the foreign policy debate: the Iran nuclear deal.  So this is a rundown of what’s been said and being said about nonproliferation and WMD policy in the 2016 election.

 See part 1 here.

So I’m continuing to take a look at what the 2016 election looks like for nonproliferation.

As with the previous post, Republicans in general tend to oppose the Iran deal, but let’s take a closer look at some more candidates, and move a little more toward the fringes.

Rand Paul:
Rand Paul opposes the Iran deal (surprise), and the section of his website devoted to Iran echoes Bibi Netanyahu’s “bad deal” language.  Let me tell you though, as far as issues pages go, it doesn’t get much better than this.  Not only does he have the most extensive set of issues pages I’ve seen so far, Rand’s camp has helpfully noted specific quotes, sources, and bill numbers for his voting record.  I don’t even have to go on THOMAS.  Thanks, Rand site devs!  For example, the site notes that he was a co-sponsor of The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, which attempted to challenge the administration’s negotiations.  Rand didn’t always used to be this way, though.  Having gradually (and recently, not-so-gradually) drifted from a libertarian stance into one more in line with mainstream conservative thinking, he’s changed his tune a bit on Iran.  Bloomberg chronicles his shift from cautioning against military action and arguing that Iran didn’t pose a threat, in 2007, to his current position.  Rand doesn’t have much else to say about nonproliferation.   He does say that Republican hawkishness contributed to the rise of ISIS, though, which caused him to get into a fight with Sean Hannity.

Carly Fiorina:
If Rand Paul has a great website, then Carly Fiorina has the worst one yet. Her issues page isn’t accessible from the home page, and when you do find it, it’s all videos.  Carly uses some of these videos to underscore just how anti-Iran deal she is.  During the September debate, she said that if elected president, “I will make two phone calls, the first to my good friend to Bibi Netanyahu to reassure him we will stand with the state of Israel. The second, to the supreme leader, to tell him that unless and until he opens every military and every nuclear facility to real anytime, anywhere inspections by our people, not his, we, the United States of America, will make it as difficult as possible and move money around the global financial system.”  So far, she hasn’t had much to say about nonproliferation or biological weapons beyond the Iran deal.  Like Donald Trump, she’s compared the negotiating diplomatic deals to business deals, citing her experience as CEO of computer giant Hewlett-Packard.  There’s a catch there, though, and it’s one worth reading about in full other than my snarky at-a-glance version:  according to Bloomberg View, while she was CEO, “Hewlett-Packard used a European subsidiary and a Middle East distributor to sell hundreds of millions of dollars of printers and other computer equipment to Iran,” circumventing the sanctions regime.  While likely not illegal, it’s certainly been controversial.

Ben Carson:
Ben Carson’s security platform is centered on countering “Russian transgressions” and supporting Israel.  The Russia issues page features pictures of scary missiles but doesn’t explicitly mention nuclear policies.  Carson argues that Russian aggression has a destabilizing effect on Ukraine and the Middle East, ultimately threatening Europe.  He calls on the US to lead NATO and non-NATO allies “from a position of strength” and that “all options should remain on the table” when dealing with Putin.  No specific mention of nuclear weapons, but “all” is pretty broad.  On Israel, he promises unwavering support, but offers no details to this end.  To most conservative voters though, this can be read as anti-Iran deal, at least.  Carson offered another interesting claim about nonproliferation, though.  In the August debate, Carson said, “You know, Ukraine was a nuclear-armed state. They gave away their nuclear arms with the understanding that we would protect them. We won’t even give them offensive weapons.”  The excellent Politifact evaluated this claim, and concluded that it isn’t really accurate for two reasons: first, Ukraine wasn’t “nuclear-armed” because while Soviet warheads briefly resided there following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine would never have been able to launch them (according to Harvard nuclear specialist Matthew Bunn), and that while the US agreed to respect the sovereignty of- and not attack- Ukraine, it didn’t formally offer a guarantee of protection.  Implicit in Carson’s statement is the argument that Ukraine, if it had retained (and, hypothetically controlled) the nuclear weapons left after the collapse, wouldn’t have been subject to Russian aggression.  This paints Carson as a strong believer in nuclear deterrence.

Week In DC: Events 10.12-10.16.2015

Monday 10.12.2015

Lebanon’s Deepening Domestic Crisis – Brookings Institution
Time: 5:30pm
Location: Brookings Institution1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036(map)
Over the past month thousands of Lebanese protesters have taken to the streets chanting ‘revolution,’ starting an unprecedented and long overdue mobilization against the country’s sectarian political system and dysfunctional government. What became known as the ‘You Stink’ protest campaign, ignited by a garbage crisis, has widened to reflect anger at the entrenched political elites and the state’s failure to provide basic services. Furthermore, Lebanon has been without a president ever since the term of former President Michel Suleiman ended on May 25, 2014, despite U.N. officials and allied governments repeatedly urging the Lebanese parliament to elect a new leader. Meanwhile, regional turmoil has put Lebanon under enormous stress with the influx of over a million Syrian refugees, who now account for more than 20 percent of the population. The involvement of a number of Lebanese parties in the Syrian conflict and the deeply divided attitudes toward the Syrian regime make it extremely difficult to reach any agreement, even on domestic issues. The Brookings Doha Center cordially invites you to attend a public policy discussion entitled ‘Lebanon’s Deepening Domestic Crisis.’ In light of the political gridlock in Beirut, this event will focus on the prospects for peace and security in Lebanon amid the internal conflicts. Will the protest campaign pave the way for revamping Lebanon’s political system? Can Lebanon continue to avoid getting engulfed by Syria’s conflict? IMPORTANT: Due to limited available space, this event requires pre-registration. To reserve a place for yourself and/or a guest, please RSVP with the names of those who wish to attend to dohacenter@brookings.edu. Please arrive fifteen minutes before the event’s start time.

Will the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Live Up to Its Promise? – Cato Institute
Time: 8:30am-5:20pm
Location: Cato Institute1000 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001 (map)
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations were launched to great fanfare in mid-2013 with the pronouncement that a comprehensive deal would be reached by the end of 2014 on a “single tank of gas.” But after more than two years and 10 rounds of negotiations, an agreement is nowhere in sight and substantive differences remain between the parties. Despite a retreat from the original level of ambition, skepticism is mounting on both sides of the Atlantic that a deal will be reached anytime soon. What are the prospects for fulfilling the promise of a comprehensive trade and investment deal between the United States and the European Union? What exactly is under negotiation, and what is the strategy for advancing those negotiations? Would it make sense to exclude sacred-cow issues that will only bog down the negotiations? Is it wise to continue pursuing a single comprehensive deal for all issues on the table, or is it better to aim for a sequence of smaller agreements? Should a deal include other closely integrated countries, such as Canada, Mexico, and Turkey? How will TTIP affect the multilateral trading system, relations with the BRICS countries, and prospects for developing countries?

Tuesday 10.13.2015

Conflict Prevention and Resolution Forum -Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies 
Time: 9:30am
Location: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Nitze Building1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036(map)
With more than half the world’s population living in cities for the first time, urban violence has become an increasingly significant problem. From Karachi to San Pedro Sula, urban centers grapple with security threats from within their own populations. In the face of challenges that can include rapid population growth, increased pressure on fragile infrastructure, limited resources such as energy and water, and high levels of  unemployment, city governments are facing substantial challenges maintaining security. This has enabled insurgencies, terrorist organizations, criminal gangs and syndicates to operate more freely. This forum will explore work being to confront urban violence holistically, looking at both urban development programming and youth-centered violence reduction initiatives in cities around the world.

U.S. Launch of the 2015 World Nuclear Industry Status Report – Heinrich Boell Foundation
Time: noon-1:30pm
Location: National Resources Defense Council 1152 15th Street NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC (map)
The Heinrich Böll Foundation, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), and the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) are delighted to invite you to a luncheon discussion with Mycle Schneider, the lead author of the new World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015. The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015 provides a comprehensive overview of nuclear power plant data, including information on operation, production and construction. The report assesses the status of new build programs in current nuclear countries as well as in potential newcomer countries. This year’s edition of the report provides an analysis of nuclear plant construction starts over time, describes delays in Generation III+ reactor projects (including the EPR, AP1000, AES 2006), looks at the history and development status of advanced reactors, and gives an update of ongoing issues from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

Mycle Schneider, convening lead author of the annual World Nuclear Industry Status Report, is a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), based at Princeton University, and is a laureate of the Right Livelihood Award, also known as the “Alternative Nobel Prize.” Mycle is the Coordinator of the Seoul International Energy Advisory Council (SIEAC) and has served as advisor on nuclear energy issues to the French Environment Minister, the Belgian Minister for Energy and Sustainable Development, the German Environment Ministry, the U.S. Agency for International Development, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Wednesday 10.14.2015

George Mason University PhD Information Session
Time: 7pm
Location: Fairfax Campus, Merten Hall, Room 1201, see directions
Drawing on world-class original research and high-level practical experience, our faculty prepare students to be creative and effective participants in policy-making and political discourse.  By working closely with these faculty to conduct research that influences decisions at the local, national and international levels, our PhD graduates emerge prepared for high-powered careers in the public, private, and nonprofit sectors.

Beyond the Numbers: Inside the Syrian Refugee Crisis  –Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Time: 4-6pm
Location: United States Holocaust Memorial Museum100 Raoul Wallenberg Place, SW (Use 15th St., NW Entrance) (map)
Join The Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s LINK program for young professionals, in cooperation with the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, as we explore the Syrian refugee crisis: What caused this humanitarian disaster? How has the world responded? What can the international community do to address it? Our distinguished panelists will present the perspectives of diplomats, journalists, non-governmental representatives, and analysts from Syria, the United States, and Europe who have struggled with this tragic situation.

Thursday 10.15.2015

ISIS, the Syrian Refugee Crisis and International Response –Virginia International University
Time: 2:30-5:30pm
Location: Virginia International University 4401 Village Drive (rt. 29 opposite Wegman’s) Faifax, VA 22030 (map)
Room: Conference Hall
The Center for Democracy and International Affairs -VIU is hosting a Forum and Discussion on the Syrian Refugee Crisis and the Global Humanitarian Response. The event will take place on October 15, Thursday, from 2:30pm till 5:30pm and will feature: political analysts discussing the causes of the conflict and the current configuration of international players, including the newest role to be played by Russia; a representative from the UN Refugee Agency; and representatives of both Catholic Charities and Lutheran Social Services involved in the process of resettlement. The forum will provide for an open discussion, networking, and working group formations. It is free and open to the public: http://www.viu.edu/cdia/blog.html?image=true&feedid=0   Please RSPV to CDIA@VIU.edu

Since 2011, almost 12 million people, equivalent to half of the Syrian population, have been displaced by the conflict, including 7.6 million displaced inside Syria. The forum  will discuss the causes of the conflict in Syria and the larger Middle East, the evolution of the refugee Crisis, and the response of key international and US humanitarian organizations.

State Department Career Info Session- Thursday Luncheon Group
Time: 6-7:30pm
Location: The U.S. Capitol Visitor CenterFirst St NE, Washington, DC 20515 (map)
Room: HVC-201AB
The panel will discuss job opportunities in a wide array of substantive areas, including

  • Civil Service Positions,
  • Foreign Service Positions,
  • The Rangel, Pickering and Payne Graduate Fellowship Programs,
  • The Presidential Management Fellows (PMF) Program,
  • Internships and Student Positions, and
  • The mission and contributions of the State Department to global peace and prosperity.

RSVP at ThursdayLuncheonGroupEvents@gmail.com

Friday 10.16.2015

Ten years of the Renewable Fuel Standard: What’s been the impact on energy and the environment? – Brookings Institution
Time: 10:30-11:45am
Location: Brookings Institution1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036(map)
Ten years ago, Congress established the first federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which requires that gasoline and diesel sold in the U.S. contain minimum amounts of renewable fuels, such as corn ethanol and biodiesel. The mandate was meant to spur innovation in renewable fuel use, but the Environmental Protection Agency has repeatedly used its authority to decrease the required amounts because of limited productive capacity.Join the Economic Studies program at Brookings on October 16 as we convene an expert panel to discuss the effect of the RFS on prices for both fuels and food, whether the RFS is having an impact on greenhouse gas emissions, and if the statutory levels for future years are realistic or if they need to be revised further. The event will be webcast. Join the conversation via Twitter at #Biofuel.

Pandora Report 10.9.15

Happy Friday! Since we’ve made it through Hurricane Joaquin, let’s celebrate with some biodefense news by way of air defense, Ebola, some amazing original work from the GMU Biodefense clan, and all the fun in between. Fun fact: On October 8, 2001, President George W. Bush established the Office of Homeland Security. Let’s start your weekend off right with some zombies, shall we?

Zombies & Air Defense?
With Halloween around the corner and The Walking Dead about to premiere, it’s time for some zombies – Pentagon style! Ever heard of JLENS? This $2.7 billion radar blimp was initially designed to act as an early warning system for low-flying weapons, drones, etc. Unfortunately, this system has been plagued with problems (pun intended) as it failed to detect the low-flying aircraft piloted by Florida postal worker, Douglas Hughes. We’ll let that slide since JLENS wasn’t deemed operational that day but that hasn’t stopped many from calling it a “zombie” program, meaning it’s “costly, ineffectual, and seemingly impossible to kill”. Check out the LA Times investigation into whether this defense technology is really “performing well right now” as claimed by Raytheon.

2016 Presidential Candidates on Nonproliferation- Part I

GMU’s Greg Mercer has churned out another fascinating commentary in a new series related to what 2016 presidential candidates are saying about nonproliferation. His series will pull together candidate stances and comments to take an in-depth look into the role nonproliferation is taking in this race. Greg notes, “Lucky for us though, there’s been a major nonproliferation news event to drive the foreign policy debate: the Iran nuclear deal.  So this is a rundown of what’s been said and being said about nonproliferation and WMD policy in the 2016 election.” This week we’ll be looking at the Republican Party, so make sure to check in over the next few months to see how everyone’s stance has changed or strengthened.

Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Spike in Pakistan
Pakistan is currently seeing a spike in their cases of CCHF with the most recent death of a patient in Quetta at the Fatima Jinnah Chest and General Hospital. The death toll is now 3 in 3 days and a total of 15 patient mortalities this year. There are 9 other CCHF patients under observation and treatment at the regional hospitals. The WHO’s Diseases Early Warning System (DEWS) in Pakistan tracks these seasonal spikes in hopes to also prevent its spread. The concerning aspect is the high amount of deaths this year so far when compared to other years.

Iran’s Shifting Preference?
How lucky are we to have two amazing GMU Biodefense commentaries this week? Scott McAlister is discussing the Iranian nuclear deal and the potential consequences. He hammers out a topic we biodefense folks are all too familiar with – dual-use and the hiding-in-plain-sight reality of so many programs. Scott points out that, “the scary thing about biological and chemical weapons programs is their ability to hide in plain sight.  Due the dual use of much of today’s biotechnological advancements, an offensive weapons program can be disguised as a facility to create vaccines or research centers for diseases with minimal effort.” Take a look at his notes on nuclear weapon capabilities and Iranian perspective on biological weapons.

Tacit Knowledge & Biological Weapons Proliferation
On a scale of 1-10, having your research cited during a meeting of the State Parties to the Convention on the Prohibition of Biological Weapons, is pretty much a 12. What can we say, GMU Biodefense professor, Dr. Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley, did just that! At the meeting of experts in August, the State parties met to discuss the field of science and technology while emphasizing tacit  knowledge in relation to bioweapon proliferation. When discussing tacit knowledge, the U.S. noted at the conference, “the concept of communal or collective tacit knowledge has been explored extensively, particularly in the work of Donald Mackenzie and Graham Spinardi, who examined its role in the context of nuclear weapons creation, and Kathleen Vogel and Sonia Ben Ouagrham- Gormley, who examined it with respect to biological weapons creation.” During this meeting, the role and relevance of tacit knowledge as a risk modulator was heavily discussed, pointing to its corresponding role of increasing the risk of bioweapon proliferation.

Bioweapons for Dummies?
Speaking of tacit knowledge and the rise of the biotechnology revolution… Zian Liu from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists goes through the five steps of building a biological weapon to address the barriers to weaponization. Broaching the topic of “biohacking”, Zian points to the concern within the biodefense industry related to synthetic biology and fourth generation bioweapons. From ordering the synthetic genes to recently published research that discusses the developments of genetic modification, this commentary hits on the very real barriers that a fourth-year bioengeneering undergraduate student identifies -even with the available tools. Between the need for increased regulations on synthetic DNA and the dual-use concerns, Zian notes that “novice biologists are not likely to construct advanced weapons any time soon.”

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Stories You May Have Missed:

  • Guinea outbreak region goes a full week without a new Ebola case! We’re all holding our breaths in hope this means the outbreak is nearing an end in this hard-hit region. Sierra Leone has reached 3 weeks (a full incubation period) of no new cases and the last healthcare worker infection was back in August. The WHO and local public health workers are still maintaining door-to-door case finding efforts and contact tracing.
  • PPD Awarded Contracts with US Army & BARDA – Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPD) was just awarded two US government contracts to address health outcomes in armed forces and test the efficacy of the national strategic stockpile’s supply of avian influenza vaccine.
  • Findings of the 7th WHO Ebola Emergency Committee Meeting – Last week this committee met to discuss the ongoing outbreak in West Africa. They provided updates and furthering advisement regarding the disease and international travel as 34 countries “continue to enact measures that are disproportionate to the risks posed.”

The Candidates on Nonproliferation – Part 1

By Greg Mercer

I initially set out to write this as a candidate-by-candidate look at what the 2016 crop had to say about an issue near and dear to Biodefense students’ hearts: nonproliferation.  As it turns out, though, not many candidates have well-developed stances on highly specific policy issues (or any issues, depending on how serious a candidate we’re talking about) more than a year from the general election.  Lucky for us though, there’s been a major nonproliferation news event to drive the foreign policy debate: the Iran nuclear deal.  So this is a rundown of what’s been said and being said about nonproliferation and WMD policy in the 2016 election.

So over the next couple of weeks, I’m going to take a look at what the 2016 election looks like for nonproliferation.  I’m learning a lot about the way candidate’s structure their websites.  And no, I don’t want to donate.

I’ll start first with the Republicans.  There are 15 of them right now (plus a handful of fringe/joke candidates).  Some of them have extensive platforms, others don’t.  Most of them don’t have much to say about nonproliferation.  Fair.  But the Republican Party is unified, though, in its stern opposition to the Iran nuclear deal, as evidenced by the recent attempt to block the deal in Congress.  What the candidates think about nonproliferation is also likely a function of the faith they place in the UN and international institutions.  Those who trust those mechanisms will probably push treaties as the best counterproliferation tool.  Those who don’t will probably call for strong deterrence.

 

Marco Rubio: 

Marco Rubio lumps defense and foreign policy together in this video staged to look like an interview, where he says that he aims not to make America popular, but safe, and pledges to rebuild the military.  He doesn’t talk about deterrence or proliferation in that video, but he does devote two entire sections of his “Issues” page to the Iran deal, and he alludes to nuclear proliferation in his hour-long talk at the Council on Foreign Relations (helpfully, the website provided a transcript): “The president’s proposed deal with Tehran will likely lead to a cascade of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and could force Israel to take bold action to defend itself, making war with Iran even more likely.”  This interesting statement links the Iran deal with going to war with Iran (backing up Israel in an all-out war is a foregone conclusion, it seems).  Huh.

It’s safe to say Marco Rubio is anti-Iran deal, but right now he hasn’t spoken extensively about nonproliferation efforts beyond advocating for American strength in the international community.

 

Jeb Bush:

Thanks to some name association, Jeb Bush tends to get asked about the Iraq War frequently.  The war did have quite a lot to do with nonproliferation, given the controversy (at the time) of whether or not Saddam Hussein possessed or was attempting to develop weapons of mass destruction.  Jeb has praised his brother’s actions (although he’s said that “knowing what we know now,” he would not have gone into Iraq).  Jeb is still thinking about Iraq, because his defense issues section is titled “Defeating ISIS.”  Fair enough; that’s pretty direct and avoids Marco Rubio’s blog-like setup that made me comb through three different pages.  (I think the content of the page was cobbled together from a few different sources because it switches back and forth between “ISIS” and “Islamic State,” and if you’ve read me before you’ll know that’s fascinating to me.)  On this issue page, Jeb links the Iran nuclear deal with Iran’s support for Assad and Hezbollah, and more or less explicitly promises to dismantle the deal, if elected.  He doesn’t have much else to say about nonproliferation.

 

Ted Cruz:

Ted Cruz’s website offers “proven record” sections instead of “issues” pages.  While they’re mostly bullet points on things he’s said in the past, it’s not a recycled speech so that’s nice.  Among the ways Cruz plans to create a “stronger, safer America,” Cruz specifically notes his opposition to the Iran deal.  Cruz also links ending sanctions with locking in military action as the only way to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, and calls on all of the candidates to promise to repudiate the deal.  So far, that’s not a controversial stance among Republicans.  He’s also agreed that the Iraq War was a “mistake.”  Cruz has little else to say about nonproliferation, but he’s taken a stance on another interesting biodefense issue: He authored legislation to give military service members deployed to provide aid during the 2014 Ebola outbreak the same tax benefits that service members in combat zones receive.  So far, both the House and Senate versions of this bill have only been referred to their respective committees, but it’s an interesting point that hasn’t seen too much discussion.

Iran’s Shifting Preference?

By Scott McAlister

With the possible passage of the Iranian nuclear deal looming, it is important to look to possible consequences of the deal.  By taking away Iran’s ability to manufacture a nuclear weapon in the near future, how does that affect their overall desire to possess weapons of mass destruction?  In the world of WMD’s, the big three are nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons.  It can be argued that nuclear weapons are far above the other two, as they are the only one to cause enormous amounts of damage to a victim’s infrastructure and population.  It is true, a biological or chemical weapons attack isn’t going to take down buildings or level cities, but does that mean they don’t deserve to be feared?  Biological weapons can introduce susceptible populations to deadly pathogens, and can cause mass hysteria when released.  Biological weapons programs are also much easier to hide.  While having a nuclear reactor isn’t a dead give away for building a nuclear bomb, if you are enriching uranium past a certain point, it might send up some red flags (normal enrichment for energy is 3-5%, weapons grade is above 75%, records show Iran had enriched uranium past 20%.)  The scary thing about biological and chemical weapons programs is their ability to hide in plain sight.  Due the dual use of much of today’s biotechnological advancements, an offensive weapons program can be disguised as a facility to create vaccines or research centers for diseases with minimal effort.

This brings us to Iran.  If the deal passes, Iran will realistically be unable to produce a nuclear weapon for at least the next 10 years, loosing a vast majority of its nuclear fuel, decommissioning a majority of its centrifuges, and subjected to thorough inspections.  The question now is, does their inability to produce a nuclear weapon influence them to switch routes and invest in an offensive biological weapons program?  While some hold that nuclear weapons are a class above biological and chemical weapons, to others it’s the notion of possessing a WMD of any form that holds clout.  Does Iran view biological weapons as an equally effective way to convey their message to the outside world? Continue reading “Iran’s Shifting Preference?”