Pandora Report 7.31.2023

This week covers recent actions from the Biden administration, including the launch of the Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy, the approval of Emergent BioSolutions’ anthrax vaccine, and action on AI risk management. Several new publications are included as well as new announcements.

White House Opens Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy

The White House announced last week that “As part of the President’s commitment to ensure that our country is more prepared for a pandemic than we were when he took office, the Administration is standing up the Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy (OPPR). This will be a permanent office in the Executive Office of the President (EOP) charged with leading, coordinating, and implementing actions related to preparedness for, and response to, known and unknown biological threats or pathogens that could lead to a pandemic or to significant public health-related disruptions in the United States. OPPR will take over the duties of the current COVID-19 Response Team and Mpox Team at the White House and will continue to coordinate and develop policies and priorities related to pandemic preparedness and response.”

“To lead this work, the President announced that Major General (ret) Paul Friedrichs will serve as the inaugural Director of OPPR and Principal Advisor on Pandemic Preparedness and Response as of August 7, 2023. Maj. Gen. (ret) Friedrichs’ unparalleled experience makes him the right person to lead this office. He is currently Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Global Health Security and Biodefense at the National Security Council (NSC). Maj. Gen. (ret) Friedrichs previously served as Joint Staff Surgeon at the Pentagon, where he coordinated all issues related to health services, provided medical advice to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and served as medical adviser to the Department of Defense (DoD) Covid-19 Task Force.”

Read more here.

Administration Obtains Voluntary Commitments from AI Companies to Help Manage Risks

The White House also released a statement last week explaining “Since taking office, President Biden, Vice President Harris, and the entire Biden-Harris Administration have moved with urgency to seize the tremendous promise and manage the risks posed by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and to protect Americans’ rights and safety. As part of this commitment, President Biden is convening seven leading AI companies at the White House today – Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI – to announce that the Biden-Harris Administration has secured voluntary commitments from these companies to help move toward safe, secure, and transparent development of AI technology.”

“These commitments, which the companies have chosen to undertake immediately, underscore three principles that must be fundamental to the future of AI – safety, security, and trust – and mark a critical step toward developing responsible AI. As the pace of innovation continues to accelerate, the Biden-Harris Administration will continue to remind these companies of their responsibilities and take decisive action to keep Americans safe.”

Read more here.

FDA Approves Cyfendus for Use

Emergent BioSolutions announced last week that the FDA approved its anthrax vaccine, Cyfendus, for use in adults ages 18-65. According to Reuters, “Emergent has been delivering Cyfendus to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services since 2019, under pre-emergency use authorization status, and will continue to work with the U.S. government to transition to post-approval procurement, the company said.”

CEPI Announces Partnership to Use AI to Accelerate Vaccine Development for Disease X

Last week, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and the Houston Methodist Research Institute “…announced a partnership to combine cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) technology with established laboratory techniques to speed up development of future vaccines against novel viral threats (also known as Disease X). HMRI will lead a consortium including experts from Argonne National Laboratory (University of Chicago), J Craig Venter Institute, La Jolla Institute, The University of Texas Medical Branch, and The University of Texas, Austin.”

“CEPI will provide up to US$4.98 million to HMRI to advance the application of AI to analyse the structures of viruses from priority viral families from which the next Disease X is likely to emerge. These AI approaches will be used to identify target pieces of protein in the virus that stimulate the immune system, known as epitopes. The HMRI-led consortium will initially focus their efforts on paramyxoviruses and arenaviruses, viral families which include the likes of Nipah virus and Lassa virus, respectively.”

“AI experts from the HMRI, University of Texas-Austin, La Jolla Institute, and Argonne National Laboratory (University of Chicago) will use machine-learning approaches to optimise the design of potential epitopes. The University of Texas Medical Branch will then validate the immunogenicity of these potential vaccine candidates using established preclinical models.”

Read more here.

“Biosecurity in the Americas: Regional Threat Assessment”

The Unconventional Weapons and Technology (UWT) Division at University of Maryland’s National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) published and presented their joint publication “Biosecurity in the Americas: Regional Threat Assessment” with the Organization of American States (OAS/OEA) Inter-American Committee against Terrorism (CICTE) team in the Dominican Republic this past week.

The regional assessment publication, currently available in Spanish, was co-authored by UWT’s Dr. Steve S. Sin, Mr. Markus Binder, and Ms. Alexandra Williams, experts within the chemical, biological, and radiological defense fields. This publication provides a breadth and depth of focuses as a high-level assessment of the Central and South America regions and introduction to key topics as:

1. The needed expansion of understanding of the differences and areas of collaboration between the concepts of biosafety and biosecurity,

2. Existing international obligations to biosecurity through the BWC and UNSC Resolution 1540,

3. How biosecurity applies to and may differ in application across a variety of facility types that engage in biological research or production, whether private or public laboratories, agricultural or university-based facilities,

4. Biosecurity risks that include proliferation, bioterrorism, agroterrorism, and biocrime,

5. The five pillars and mechanisms of biosecurity,

6. Lastly, the application of biosecurity in the Central and South American regions.

Consequently, the publication concludes that despite there existing “limited or no direct biosecurity threat from external actors such as foreign states or Violent Non-State Actors (VSNAs),” within the Central and South America regions, considerable biosecurity risk exists in the potential for VSNA or likewise exploitation of “gaps in legislation or enforcement capabilities of states for the purposes of proliferation.” Furthermore, the publication notes that:

“all countries in the region have some level of legislation and regulation that addresses biosecurity; however, they are much less robust than legislation and regulation related to nuclear and chemical security…and do not yet have a fully comprehensive set of laws to meet all of the requirements of UNSCR 1540, BWC, or other international obligations….Engagement of governments and national legislatures in this process provides a foundation of experience that can serve as a basis for pursuing and implementing biosecurity legislation and other measures.”

This publication was also announced concurrently with the OEA-CICTE training conference held in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic on July 17-21, 2023, focusing on UN Security Council Resolution 1540, the Biological Weapons Convention, and biosafety and biosecurity training and education for laboratory personnel. This conference was sponsored by the Dominican Republic’s Ministry of Defense, with additional support from the Ministry of Public Health, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the General Directorate of Customs. Ms. Williams, GMU MS Biodefense ’18, represented UWT at this conference. Since graduating from George Mason’s Schar School of Policy and Government, Biodefense Masters Degree program, Ms. Williams has worked in the UWT division for the last 5 years on a variety of biological agent, biosecurity and WMD-related projects, and has served as the Biological Weapons and Technology Junior Researcher within UWT since 2020.

“America Has Immunized Troops Since George Washington’s Time. Here’s How to Improve Military (and Civilian) Vaccination Programs”

Biodefense PhD Program alumnus and Schar School adjunct professor Daniel Gerstein recently published this piece with the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. In it he discusses successful attributes of the United States’ anthrax, smallpox, and COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. He explains in his conclusion, “These attributes of military vaccination campaigns also provide an approach that should apply to a successful non-military vaccination campaign. Meeting communities where they are and taking the time to explain the rationale for vaccinations are important principles to be followed by leaders and public health authorities. This does not mean that all will be enticed to get vaccinated by these interventions, but the likelihood of gaining increased acceptance rises through community engagement and must be considered in the early stages of vaccine development as well as during the implementation of a vaccine program.”

“MATCH: Leveraging Blockchain for Chemical Weapons Nonproliferation”

“The Stimson Center’s Monitoring and Tracking Chemicals (MATCH) project has developed a proof-of-concept software platform to explore and test the feasibility of using distributed ledger technology (DLT), also known as blockchain technology, to reconcile discrepancies in the international transfer of dual-use chemicals covered under the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). The MATCH platform simulates global chemical trade and regulatory reporting using a hypothetical ecosystem based on real-world trade data and national CWC implementing legislation. With development and testing phases completed in spring 2023, the MATCH proof-of-concept demonstrates how DLT can be used to record transfers of dual-use chemicals as they are exported and imported between fictional CWC States Parties, streamlining reporting and reducing discrepancies in chemical transfer records while allowing industry and national authorities to share data using a single, permissioned digital ledger.”

Read more here.

“Biosecurity in the Age of AI”

“Technological advancements in life sciences research – turbocharged by new and emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) capabilities – are furnishing incredible breakthroughs in human health, sustainable development, and other fields. This convergence promises world-changing benefits for health and well-being, including opportunities to achieve global goals for pandemic preparedness and response, improve cancer detection and treatment, and alleviate chronic diseases such as diabetes. More broadly, AI holds the potential to transform sectors ranging from agriculture and food security to defense to climate change and energy production. While these technologies will unlock incredible opportunities, they will also pose incredible challenges, with specific risks emerging at the intersection of AI and synthetic biology (AI Bioconvergence or AI-Enabled Biology).”

“In late May of 2023, the problem-solving organization Helena convened a small group of senior leaders from industry, government, think tanks, and academia to interrogate this risk landscape and pressure-test courses of action. Their conversations took place at The Rockefeller Foundation’s Bellagio Center.”

“The following report distills key recommendations emerging from those discussions. At the crux of the meeting in Bellagio was the following question: Imagine it is five years from now, and we are living in a world that has embraced the promise of AI-Enabled Biology, yet remains safe and secure from biorisk. What governance and policy decisions must we make now to arrive at this optimal future?”

“India–United States Track 1.5 Strategic Biosecurity Dialogue: Report from the Ninth Dialogue Session”

“On May 24 and 25, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (“the Center”) co-hosted a dialogue (“the dialogue”) with the Regional Centre for Biotechnology of the Department of Biotechnology in the Indian Ministry of Science and Technology, in Washington, DC, to discuss biosecurity issues of importance to both India and the United States. The dialogue aimed to increase knowledge of prevention and response efforts for natural, deliberate, and accidental biological threats in India and the US; share best practices and innovations; examine opportunities for partnership and collaboration; develop and deepen relationships among dialogue participants; and identify issues that should be elevated to the attention of Indian or US government officials.”


“The meeting convened senior thought leaders, scientists, public health practitioners, and medical experts from the United States and India. In accordance with the dialogue format, participants offered insights based on personal expertise and did not represent the government of either country in an official capacity.”

“The dialogue focused on a variety of health security topics—including lessons learned from COVID-19, future pandemic preparedness and response, epidemic containment and disease surveillance, emerging technologies and potential dual-use concerns, and management and development of medical countermeasures (MCMs)—and identified priorities for discussion at the next India–US Biosecurity Dialogue and for joint action by India and the US. Crosscutting discussion points emerged during the meeting, including the need to elevate biosecurity issues for government-to-government engagement, especially in advance of an official state visit between US President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on June 22, 2023; work to overcome the destructive impact of misinformation and disinformation in future disease emergencies; understand biosecurity priorities through a One Health lens, breaking down the silos that separate animal, human, plant, and environmental health; ensure that biotechnology and bioscience is pursued safely and securely; and continue to learn from the COVID-19 pandemic to inform preparedness.”

Read more about this dialogue here.

“Key Biodefense Elements in the FY2024 President’s Budget Request”

Arushi Gupta, Rhys Dubin, and Lillian Parr with the Council on Strategic Risks recently published this briefer analyzing the Biden administration’s budget request. The explain in their conclusion “Although the budgets discussed in this briefer are unlikely to correspond precisely with the bill Congress passes at the end of the fiscal year, presidential requests provide a useful picture of an administration’s priorities. Spending on biosecurity makes up a small sliver of the proposed budget, but these investments need to rise, and it is promising to see the U.S. government allocating resources toward innovative new programs for pandemic preparedness and prevention…Finally, biosecurity is a highly complex and interdisciplinary issue that requires input from a diverse group of agencies—not all of which were covered by this overview. For a more granular look at the biodefense budget, the Nolan Center plans to publish a full breakdown of past spending and current funding requests from across the interagency later in 2023, and provide open tools and analysis to track trends over time.”

“Britain Backs Biosecurity in Its Revitalised National Strategy”

Richard Sullivan, Gemma Bowsher and Benjamin Wakefield recently published this piece for the Center for Global Development. In it, they explain in part “The new BSS aligns with the UK’s refreshed Integrated Defence Review, confidently pushing biosecurity onto a common strategic platform with national security planning. Clear in its goal for Britain to occupy space on the international stage as a “scientific soft superpower,” this strategy shows profound evolutions from the last rather sparse iteration in 2018.”

“The R&D landscape for infectious disease vaccines”

New from Yue et al. for Nature: “Vaccines have a tremendous impact on public health, and their importance has been emphasized by the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we provide an overview of the current state of research and development (R&D) on prophylactic vaccine candidates for infectious diseases globally.”

“Handbook to Combat CBRN Disinformation”

“To produce this Handbook, UNICRI has monitored several social media platforms, paying specific attention to the role of violent non-state actors, namely: violent extremists; terrorist organizations (particularly those associated with ISIL, also known as Da’esh and Al-Qaida); and organized criminal groups.”

“The Handbook aims at enhancing understanding of CBRN disinformation on social media while developing competencies to prevent and respond to disinformation with a specific focus on techniques for debunking false information. It has been designed for individuals or agencies working in CBRN risk mitigation at different levels (communication, decision-making, managerial, operational, technical, etc.) who have been or could potentially be exposed to and targeted by disinformation.”

“The Handbook equips practitioners with the competencies to effectively analyse, understand and respond to CBRN disinformation in the media and on social media platforms.”

“Democratic Strength as the Basis of Pandemic Response: a Review of the Covid Crisis Group Report”

Nathan Paxton for NTI: “The CCG released a report in April—“Lessons from the COVID War”—that argues the upheaval that COVID caused in the United States was the result of basic failures in governance that were bipartisan in both origin and execution, and the fact that Americans have lost confidence in policy governance and problem-solving. While the CCG authors make some specific and action-oriented suggestions for reform, they could have more explicitly engaged with the vital question of the present: how we can use democratic collaboration to improve pandemic security.”

Read more here.

“The Ongoing Mystery of COVID’s Origin”

David Quammen recently published this piece for The New York Times Magazine, covering the COVID-19 origins saga and exploring why the public is so taken by the lab leak hypothesis. He writes in part, “Various factors may account for this public drift to the lab-leak hypothesis. In my view, a preponderance of empirical evidence is not one of them. I agree it’s important to remain open-minded toward a lab-leak possibility, but most of the arguments made in support of that possibility boil down to conjecture from circumstance and unsupported accusations.”

“To speak of a “lab-leak hypothesis” in the singular is, of course, misleading. There are multiple lab-leak hypotheses, just as there are multiple ways a natural spillover could have occurred. A more encompassing and emollient phrase is “research-related incident,” preferred by Jamie Metzl and some other critics. That covers several possibilities, including the chance that misbegotten gain-of-function research, at the W.I.V. or the Wuhan C.D.C. or who knows where, yielded a dangerous new hybrid virus that escaped through a malfunctioning autoclave or an infected technician or grad student. (In support of this scenario, proponents point to a grant proposal known as DEFUSE — made by EcoHealth Alliance to a U.S. defense research agency in 2018, though never funded — for experiments that some critics construe as potentially dangerous gain-of-function research.) Another “research-related” possibility: the nightmare that some Chinese biowarfare program created a murderous virus intentionally but let it escape to the world by some catastrophic goof. Still another: the notion that a scientific fieldworker became infected while taking samples from bats in, say, the Mojiang mine, where Zhengli Shi’s team found RaTG13.”

“Doctors Who Put Lives at Risk with COVID Misinformation Rarely Punished”

Lena H. Sun, Lauren Weber and Hayden Godfrey recently published this investigative piece for The Washington Post, describing their work as “The Post investigation, which included a review of more than 2,500 medical board documents, lawsuits and news stories as well as interviews with more than 130 current and former medical board staffers, physicians, patients, health officials and experts, is the most comprehensive national accounting of the consequences for doctors spreading medical misinformation related to the pandemic.”

Their findings offer insight into the limitations of state medical boards’ power in tackling misinformation spread by physicians.

“It’s Time to Close the Gene Synthesis Loophole That Could Lead to a Human-Made Pandemic”

Kelsey Piper authored this piece for Vox, writing in her intro “No US or international law requires companies that print DNA sequences to check what exactly they’re selling or who they’re selling it to. Nearly all of the companies working in this exciting new field — called DNA synthesis — check anyway because they want their pioneering industry to transform medicine and science, not call down a catastrophe. “If there’s an order for Ebola that’s being ordered by the CDC in Atlanta, that’s great,” James Diggans, director of Data Science and Biosecurity for Twist Bioscience, told me. “But if we get an order for Ebola to be shipped to North Korea, we won’t do it.”’

What We’re Listening To 🎧

Epidemic: ‘Eradicating Smallpox’

“To defeat smallpox in South Asia, public health workers had to navigate the region’s layered cultural ideas about the virus. They also dreamed big. In Episode 1, host Céline Gounder wonders how the U.S. might tap into similar “moral imagination” to prepare for the next public health crisis.”

Dan Gerstein-Tech Wars with Tim Ventura

“Dr. Daniel Gerstein discusses his book, “Tech Wars: Transforming U.S. Technology Development”, and offers insights into the 2022 CHIPS Act, US/China competition, decoupling & de-risking, trade reform & more.

Dan Gerstein is a National Security author with extensive experience in the security and defense sectors across a variety of positions. He is the author of numerous books on national security topics including leadership, strategy, technology innovation, arms control, immigration & border control, bioterrorism, and more.

Dan’s remarkable career includes experience in prestigious past roles such as the Acting & Deputy Under Secretary for Science & Tech at the Department of Homeland Security, the Principal Director for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction, a full career in the US Army, retiring as a Col., and several C-level executive leadership roles in the private sector.

Dan has a PhD in Biodefense from George Mason University, a MNSS in National Security Strategy from National Defense University, an MMAS in National Security from the US Army Command & General Staff, an MSOR from Georgia Tech, and Graduated West Point as an engineer.”

Watch here.

ICYMI: What Young Americans Think about Nuclear Weapons

In case you missed it from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs: “Far removed from the days of Cold War “duck and cover” drills, are young Americans on the same page as their elders when it comes to nuclear weapons? To find out, the Council partnered with the Carnegie Corporation of New York to conduct a benchmark survey that gauges American awareness of nuclear issues across generational lines. Join our panel of experts on the [recorded] livestream as they dig into the data and weigh in on how to better engage the broader US public on nuclear policy. “

61st ISODARCO Course: Nuclear Order and International Security after Ukraine

“The war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on global security, reviving nuclear fears, undermining the prospects for arms control, and shattering many of the norms and constraints that were the foundation of European security.  ISODARCO 2024 will examine the global nuclear order in light of the Ukraine war, focusing on the states, the policies and the technologies that will shape the future in a much more difficult environment.  How will we cope with this more dangerous world?”

This course will take place January 7-14, 2024, at the University of Trento. Learn more and register here.

Registration for GHS 2024 Now Open

Registration is now open for the Global Health Security 2024 conference in Sydney, Australia. This iteration will take place 18-21 June, 2024. The call for abstracts is also still open. “The mission of the Global Health Security conference is to provide a forum where leaders, researchers, policy-makers, and representatives from government, international organisations, civil society, and private industry from around the world can engage with each other, review the latest research and policy innovations, and agree solutions for making the world safer and healthier. To that end, our mission is to help foster a genuinely multidisciplinary community of practice that is committed to working collaboratively to enhance global health security and eliminate disease, irrespective of its origin or source.”

Call for Papers on the Interconnectvity of Norms

“The Justus-Liebig University Gieβen in collaboration with CBWNet are accepting paper proposals for a conference to take place on 23-24 October 2023 in Gieβen, Germany. The conference, titled Chemical and Biological Weapons: The Interconnectivity of Norms will examine selected issues pertaining to the normative regimes against biological and chemical weapons. Submissions in line with the thematic area are welcome.”
“Paper proposals should be no longer than 250 words in length. All submissions should be sent through by 30 July 2023 and may be submitted by email to: Barry.de-Vries@recht.uni-giessen.de”

“Find the full call here: call-for-papers.pdf

Global Health Collaborators (GHC) –  Volunteer Application

“Are you passionate about global health and eager to make a meaningful impact? Look no further! We are excited to announce an open call for volunteers to join Global Health Collaborators (GHC), a youth-led movement dedicated to driving impactful change in the field of global health.”

“At GHC, we believe that collective action and diverse perspectives can create a healthier, more equitable world. As a volunteer, you’ll have the opportunity to collaborate with like-minded individuals, organizations, and communities across continents. Together, we’ll advocate for health equity and address global health challenges through impactful projects, research, and advocacy initiatives.”

“We have various volunteer positions available in our hubs across Africa, Asia, Australia & Oceania, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America, and South Asia. Within each hub, you can contribute to Committees dedicated to Grants, Project Management, Communications and Social Media, Internal Management, and Research.”

“To become a part of this transformative journey, simply fill out our Volunteer Application Form here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfmEqFQT-t1baFT0kwfixw4L5MvaX7BylvBuINKw2xCQMirIQ/viewform

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