While Syria has taken a bit of a back seat to the domestic developments of last week, the questions surrounding the use of chemical weapons there remain as pressing as ever. Last Tuesday, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in a landslide 15-3 vote, to arm the Syrian rebels.
Dr. Gregory Koblentz, Council on Foreign Relations Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow and GMU Biodefense Deputy Director, has discussed the implications of this vote and the ongoing situation in Syria in numerous news pieces and interviews. In a recent Reuters piece on the decision to arm the rebels, Dr. Koblentz argued that while it would be possible for the United States to selectively choose which groups to arm, doing so requires a thorough, US-conducted assessment of the situation on the ground.
Dr. Koblentz also recently published a piece in the Atlantic, America’s Best Options in Syria, from which our favorite excerpt is below:
“In combination, however, they could have a significant impact on the conflict over the longer term. Combining stronger efforts to train and equip the rebels with sanctions that cut off Damascus from importing more weapons would help level the playing field between rebel and government forces. As better-armed rebels make gains on the battlefield against increasingly stretched government forces, the prospect of a negotiated settlement that provides amnesty for lower-ranking Baath Party officials and officers in the military might gain more traction. If even after adopting these measures, the stalemate between the rebels and regime forces continue, political efforts to halt the conflict are stymied, and the government continues using chemical weapons, then the United States and international community will be better able to argue that they have exhausted all non-military means of halting the conflict. At that point, it might be necessary to turn to the ultimate game changer — the United States military.”
In addition to this numerous contributions to various news pieces on Syria (VOA, Radio Free Europe, DPA, and USA Today), Dr. Koblentz has also appeared in a number of television interviews with international news organizations, including a recent interview with CCTV:
Highlights include patenting the NCoV, swine flu’s preference for the young, H7N9 and ferrets (always ferrets), getting closer to a universal flu vaccine, synthetic biology and a H7N9 vaccine, and ricin. Happy Friday!
If you’re shaking your head at recent news detailing the spread of the novel coronavirus, and wondering why officials in these countries can’t seem to keep the virus contained, wait a second. One of the reasons health officials in the Middle East are struggling with quick diagnosis is that Saudi Arabia already entered into bilateral agreements with certain drug companies, resulting in the patenting of the virus. This means that every time a new lab (say in a new country or region) wants to work with the virus (due to its emergence locally), they need to get permission. Now, the virus was patented for reasons of vaccine and anti-viral drug development. However, instances like this get to the heart of the ongoing difficulties in the relationship between big pharma and government in relation to vaccines and drug development.
AFP – “WHO chief Margaret Chan expressed outrage at the information. ‘Why would your scientists send specimens out to other laboratories on a bilateral manner and allow other people to take intellectual property right on new disease?’ she asked. ‘Any new disease is full of uncertainty,’ she said…’I will follow it up. I will look at the legal implications together with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. No IP (intellectual property) should stand in the way of you, the countries of the world, to protect your people,’ she told the [WHO] delegates to thundering applause.”
It’s good to be young, unless a swine flu pandemic happens to be raging. According to new study, the 2009 H1N1 virus was especially virulent in the population under 65. Why? Those over 65 years had some degree of prior immunity, due to exposure to similar strains in their past – a phenomena known as “antigenic recycling”.
Science Daily – “The bulk of pneumonia and influenza deaths typically occur in people older than 65, but when H1N1 became the dominant flu strain in 2009, the accompanying rise in pneumonia and flu deaths took place within age groups that usually have low mortality rates. Overall, there were 53,692 pneumonia and influenza deaths in 2009, of which 2,438 were considered “excess,” or above the number expected. In 2010, there were about 50,000 deaths from pneumonia and flu, of which 196 were considered excess.”
Life is hard for ferrets (image credit: B. Lilly/Flickr)
In case you were wondering, H7N9 is in fact entirely capable of spread between humans. In a study which will no doubt launch another round of polemic debate, researchers in China infected ferrets with the virus strain, and recorded transmission of the virus to other ferrets located four inches away. The research is expected to help Chinese containment and response efforts, should the virus become more virulent. The last new case of H7N9 occurred on May 8th.
Bloomberg – “The findings support the need to reconsider management of live poultry markets, especially in urban areas, in case H7N9 becomes endemic in poultry, increasing the opportunities for the virus to evolve ‘to acquire human-to-human transmissibility,’ the authors said. ‘If this virus acquires the ability to efficiently transmit from human-to-human, extensive spread of this virus may be inevitable, as quarantine measures will lag behind its spread,’ the Chinese researchers said.”
The pharmaceutical company Sanofi has developed a virus/protein hybrid that may protect against multiple strains of flu. The vaccine fuses the highly conserved H1 glycoproteins to a “transporter protein”, which then (for some reason) form spontaneous spheres. In ferret trials, the vaccine offered protection to numerous different H1 strains. Still, flu viruses are notoriously good at mutating – no word yet on if the virus would remain viable in instances of antigenic drift.
BBC News– “Prof Sarah Gilbert, who works on universal vaccines at Oxford University, told BBC News: ‘It is an improvement on the current vaccine. It’s not a ‘universal vaccine’ but it’s definitely a step in the right direction.’ She said it might be able to get over the problems of ‘mis-match’ when there are differences between the seasonal vaccine and the flu being targeted. However, the vaccine has not yet been tested in people. Clinical grade vaccine has not yet been developed so even safety trials are thought to be a year away.”
Within a week of receiving a strain of H7N9 close to the one circulating in China, researchers at Novartis and the J. Craig Venter Institute had synthesized a vaccine. Yes, there are still hurdles to effective mass production, and no the FDA has not yet approved the new strategy, but a week turnaround time is phenomenal. It is significantly easier to send a virus’ genetic code around the world, and have scientists build their own vaccine than to it is to carefully package and send the virus itself.
Popular Science – “That turnaround time is weeks faster than the current best vaccine-making methods…The new method uses synthetic biology, or the creation of biological materials, such as viruses, without using nature’s usual reproductive methods…’I think it does have great potential for more rapidly preparing vaccines for new strains as they evolve,’ Robert Finberg, chair of the University of Massachusetts Medical School and a flu researcher, told the Boston Globe.”
Matthew Ryan Buquet was arrested yesterday after two envelopes containing ricin were traced back to him.
(image courtesy of Spokane County Sheriff’s Office)
The envelopes, intended for U.S. District Judge Fred Van Sickle and a downtown post office, were intercepted before any injuries occurred. Preliminary reports indicate that the form of ricin mailed was too crude for easy ingestion or inhalation. No information has been released regarding Buquet’s potential motives. Buquet has entered a not guilty plea in response to charges of mailing threatening communications.
West Nile virus (the mosquito/tickborne encephalitic virus) has been in the news a lot recently (albeit in a much quieter way than it’s flashier cousins) – last year alone there were 5,674 confirmed cases of the virus, the highest since 2003. What is less commonly known is that West Nile virus (WNV) was only introduced into the US in 1999. Pictured below are three maps illustrating the virus’ incredible (and alarmingly rapid) spread across the country.
(all maps courtesy of the CDC)
1999
Introduced in New York State, notice that by the end of 1999 all human cases of WNV were limited to the state of New York.
First introduced in NY, here we have the 1999 map of all cases of WNV in the US.
2001
By 2001, the virus had spread to nearly 30 states, with human cases in 10 states.
WNV cases in 2001 – the disease exists in humans across the North East and Southern states.
2003
By 2003, the virus was present in humans in 45 of the 48 contiguous states, with just Oregon and Washington remaining WNV-free.
WNV cases in 2003
Today, cases of West Nile Virus have occured in all 48 contiguous states, with the numbers of cases often continuing to grow. The moral of the story? Viruses are very resilient. In order to so effectively and quickly spread across the country, the virus had to survive several brutal winters (known as “overwintering”) – remember, this is virus originating in the significantly warmer climates of the African continent. We were very lucky that while WNV has the capacity to be severely pathogenic (encephalitis is no joke), 80% of those infected are asymptomatic. What if it had been Rift Valley Fever instead?
Don’t forget, our May Biodefense Policy Seminar, featuring Dr. Daniel Gerstein, Deputy Under Secretary for Science & Technology in the Department of Homeland Security, is this Thursday evening! Dr. Gerstein’s talk, “National Security and Arms Control in the Age of Biotechnology”, will examine emerging threats at the nexus of arms control and advancements in biotechnology. Come and ask questions at 7:20 PM in the Meese Conference Room, Mason Hall!
The Arab awakening that began in 2011 is transforming the Middle East in ways that continue to surprise seasoned observers. As new political leaders and movements struggle for power and work to shape the region’s future, one thing is clear: public opinion is more consequential now than it has arguably ever been. How Arabs view themselves and the world around them will have enormous consequences for the region and the larger international community in the years ahead. How are changes in Arab public opinion shaping the changes occurring across the region? Have the U.S. and its allies done enough to understand and support the voices of Arabs seeking greater representation and opportunity?
Since the onset of the Great Recession, public discussion has centered on whether spending or austerity is the best path to economic recovery. As evidenced by the sequestration, recurring debt ceiling fights and the ongoing euro crisis, clear policy prescriptions to kickstart anemic economies remain elusive. Often lost in the public discussion surrounding government budgets, though, is consideration of austerity’s implications for national politics and how policy is enacted and implemented. How has the debate surrounding spending versus budget-cutting shaped the political conversation in the United States? What has been austerity’s impact on the policy-making process?
Global health is increasingly recognized as an important part of international relations, that can have a direct or indirect impact on national security. Health diplomacy enables countries to project a positive image in nations where they are not always welcome, but where their medical expertise is needed. At the same time, health diplomacy can also be an incredible human adventure, with floating hospitals treating thousands of patients on ships.
The Biodefense Policy Seminars are the D.C. area’s premiere speaker series focused on biodefense and biosecurity issues. The monthly seminars – free and open to the public – feature leading figures within the academic, security, industry, and policy fields of biodefense. Past speakers have included Dr. Charles Bailey, Executive Director at the National Biodefense Center and Dr. Alexander Garza, former Assistant Secretary for Health Affairs and Chief Medical Officer of the Department of Homeland Security.
About the May Speaker: Dr. Daniel M. Gerstein has served as the Deputy Under Secretary for Science & Technology in the Department of Homeland Security since August 2011. He is also an Adjunct Professor at American University in Washington, DC at the School of International Service (SIS) where he teaches graduate level courses on biological warfare and the evolution of military thought. Dr. Gerstein has extensive experience in the security and defense sectors in a variety of positions while serving as a Senior Executive Service (SES) government civilian, in uniform, and in industry. Before joining DHS, he served as the Principal Director for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) within the Office of the Secretary of Defense (Policy). He has served on four different continents participating in homeland security and counterterrorism, peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance, and combat in addition to serving for over a decade in the Pentagon in various high level staff assignments.
Iran’s Council of Guardians will announce the list of candidates for the next president of Iran on May 22-23. Our panel of experts will discuss the candidates, their platforms, and their likely impact on future domestic and foreign policy.
Highlights include H7N9 winding down in China, the WHO’s most recent nCoV update, H5N1 in elephant seals, FMD diagnostics, and why not to get in the water. Happy Friday!
China is winding down it’s H7N9 response as cases of the new flu strain diminish. The most recent province to end it’s emergency response is Zhejiang, where no new cases have been seen in almost a month. Full kudos to China for handling the containment so effectively. Do we think the US would have fared as well?
Xinhua – “Medical observations on all those who had close contact with the H7N9-infected people in Zhejiang have ended, and there have been no further infections, said a statement from the seventh meeting of the Zhejiang provincial prevention and control mechanism for human infections of H7N9, which was held on Thursday. The virus has not been detected among live poultry or in relevant environments over the past three weeks in Zhejiang, the statement added. The province will continue to closely monitor H7N9.”
The World Health Organization (WHO) continues to monitor the development of the novel coronavirus (nCoV), after two health care attending to infected patients themselves became ill. Since the virus’ emergence in September, there have been 40 laboratory confirmed cases and 20 fatalities in six countries across the Middle East and Europe.
WHO – “The two patients are health care workers who were exposed to patients with confirmed nCoV. The first patient is a 45-year-old man who became ill on 2 May 2013 and is currently in a critical condition. The second patient is a 43-year-old woman with a coexisting health condition, who became ill on 8 May 2013 and is in a stable condition. Although health care associated transmission has been observed before with nCoV (in Jordan in April 2012), this is the first time health care workers have been diagnosed with nCoV infection after exposure to patients. Health care facilities that provide care for patients with suspected nCoV infection should take appropriate measures to decrease the risk of transmission of the virus to other patients and health care workers. Health care facilities are reminded of the importance of systematic implementation of infection prevention and control (IPC).”
Yes, elephant seals are that big (Image credit: Daniel Costa/NASA/JPL)
Another reason to keep a safe distance from the already rather frightening elephant seal – they may be carrying H1N1. A UC Davis study examining 900 of the large sea mammals off the Northern Californian coast revealed two asymptomatic carriers and 28 seals who possessed H1N1 antibodies. Can we please all take a moment to silently thank the poor grad students (and you know they were grad student) who had to very bravely swab the nasal cavities of 900 different elephant seals?
Sacramento Bee – “The scientists detected the H1N1 virus in free-ranging northern elephant seals off the Central California coast a year after the 2009 human swine flu pandemic began. UC Davis researchers have been studying flu viruses in wild birds and marine mammals since 2007.The aim of the research is to understand how viruses emerge and travel among animals and people, according to a university press release.”
Plum Island scientists have developed a novel cell line capable of rapidly detecting foot-and-mouth (FMD) disease in field samples. FMD is an incredibly contagious and deadly disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals, for which we do not vaccinate.
Phys.org – “The cell line was created by Agricultural Research Service (ARS) scientists at the Plum Island Animal Disease Center, Orient Point, N.Y. ARS is USDA’s chief intramural scientific research agency. The research, published online in the Journal of Clinical Microbiology, supports the USDA priority of promoting international food security. Being able to rapidly detect the virus during outbreaks would allow researchers to quickly develop the appropriate vaccine among the seven serotypes and dozens of subtypes, thereby saving valuable time and millions of dollars.”
For all of us out there who have been saying, for year, try to avoid public pools, we have vindication. The next time someone dismissively waves away your warnings with that catch-all “chlorine”, forward them this article.
LiveScience – “Researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found genetic material from E. coli bacteria in 58 percent of public pools they tested during the summer of 2012. They also found genetic material from bacteria called Pseudomonas aeruginosa, whichcan cause skin rashes and ear infections, in 59 percent of pools. The fecal material in pools comes from swimmers not showering before getting into the water, and from incidents of defecation in pools, according to the report.”
May Seminar: National Security and Arms Control in the Age of Biotechnology
Speaker: Dr. Daniel M Gerstein When: 7:20PM, Thursday, May 23rd, 2013 Where: Meese Conference Room, Mason Hall, George Mason University
The Biodefense Policy Seminars are the D.C. area’s premiere speaker series focused on biodefense and biosecurity issues. The monthly seminars – free and open to the public – feature leading figures within the academic, security, industry, and policy fields of biodefense. Past speakers have included Dr. Charles Bailey, Executive Director at the National Biodefense Center and Dr. Alexander Garza, former Assistant Secretary for Health Affairs and Chief Medical Officer of the Department of Homeland Security.
Dr. Daniel M. Gerstein has served as the Deputy Under Secretary for Science & Technology in the
Department of Homeland Security since August 2011. He is also an Adjunct Professor at American University in Washington, DC at the School of International Service (SIS) where he teaches graduate level courses on biological warfare and the evolution of military thought. Dr. Gerstein has extensive experience in the security and defense sectors in a variety of positions while serving as a Senior Executive Service (SES) government civilian, in uniform, and in industry. Before joining DHS, he served as the Principal Director for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) within the Office of the Secretary of Defense (Policy). He has served on four different continents participating in homeland security and counterterrorism, peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance, and combat in addition to serving for over a decade in the Pentagon in various high level staff assignments.
“Abstract art or fossilized stromatolite? Can’t it be both?
This image of the accumulations of cyanobacteria on a substrate at 12.5x magnification was taken by Douglas Moore of University of Wisconsin – Stevens Point and was awarded an honorable mention in Nikon’s Small World 2012 Photomicrography Competition.” http://bit.ly/10APB0h
A bipartisan group of senators called on President Obama last week to take military action in Syria. The suggestions ranged from arming the “right rebels” to missile strikes. Senator John McCain argued that it would not be long before Assad decided to use chemical weapons again and that the U.S. could use precision strikes against Syria’s chemical weapons and ballistic missiles.
(image via Freedom House)
Given the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons and the escalating price of the war in Syria, the increased interest in U.S. intervention is understandable. But to succeed in Syria Obama will need to find three things that are likely to prove elusive.
First, Obama needs to find Syria’s chemical weapons. Given how portable they are and the difficulty the world has had in pinning down who used them in the first place, the idea of a targeted effort to reclaim them seems Quixotic at best. Beyond that, you can’t use missiles to get rid of chemical weapons without endangering everyone in the area – McCain should know better.
Second, Obama needs to fight a group of rebels worth arming. The difficulty of predicting which group will wind up aligned with U.S. interests should be obvious given America’s history.
Third, Obama needs to find a reason why getting more deeply involved is truly in the U.S. national interest. Taking the next step, whether by backing a specific rebel group or by launching missile strikes, seems very likely to ensure that the U.S. will wind up even more deeply engaged down the road with the U.S. eventually having to take responsibility for getting rid of Assad. That job, however, cannot be completed without boots on the ground. And in spite of increasing pressure from Congress, vague concerns about spillover effects and the possibility of an Islamist regime will not provide Obama with enough to convince the American public to launch a costly engagement in Syria.
Highlights include a possible bioterrorist threat to US water supplies, novel coronavirus in France, EUA authorization for H7N9 diagnostic kits, using bacteria to stop malaria, and money for the NBAF. Happy Friday!
Mr. Ahmed Abassi has been charged with falsifying visa applicant information in order to facilitate terrorism. In recorded conversations with an undercover FBI agent, Abassi describes intentions to use a bacterial pathogen to contaminate air or water supplies. It is unknown whether Abassi possesses the necessary training to do so. Abassi has denied all charges brought against him.
The New York Times – “A Tunisian man has been accused of seeking to develop a terrorist network in the United States and of proposing to poison the water or air to kill up to 100,000 people, federal prosecutors said in court papers unsealed on Thursday. The man, Ahmed Abassi, 26, who came to the United States from Canada in March and was arrested last month at Kennedy International Airport, told the authorities that he may also have ‘radicalized’ one of two men arrested recently in Canada in an alleged Qaeda-linked plot to derail a passenger train.”
In what seems indicative of limited person-to-person spread, two people in close contact with France’s first case of the novel coronavirus are believed to be infected with the virus themselves. The first French case become symptomatic following an excursion in Dubai. The hcov-EMC virus, a cousin of SARS, emerged in the Middle East last September, and caused 18 fatalities out of 30 confirmed cases. Cases of the virus have been seen across the Middle East, as well as the United Kingdom and Germany.
ABC News – “Since the virus emerged last year, European authorities have put in place monitoring measures. In France, 20 people have already been examined for suspected cases of the virus, but the other 19 turned up negative, Health Minister Marisol Touraine said. Beatrice Degrugillers, a spokeswoman for the regional health agency in France’s Nord-Pas-de-Calais region, said a nurse at the hospital where the man was hospitalized in late April has herself been under watch at the hospital in Douai since Thursday night….A doctor and a former hospital roommate who had each been in contact with the first patient also remain hospitalized. Test results are expected later Friday.”
Following a declaration that the H7N9 strain of influenza poses a “significant potential for a public health emergency”, the US government has granted emergency use authorization (EUA) for certain portable diagnostic detection kits for the virus. EUA authorization enables the kits to be used immediately in the field without securing prior FDA approval. Clearly we’re all keep a very close eye on the strain’s spread.
New Scientist – “”They are right to be concerned. H7N9 could be a tough adversary: New Scientist has learned that it provokes a weaker immune response than most flu, making vaccines hard to produce. Although H7N9 is not, so far, transmissible between humans, it does cause severe disease in people, is easier to catch than other bird flu strains, and may need only a few mutations to go pandemic. The UK has already given doctors instructions on when to test people for H7N9, and how to manage any with the virus.”
Well, it’s definitely innovative. Scientists have shown that infecting mosquitoes with Wolbachia renders them temporarily resistant to malaria. But before we all start throwing our malaria pills by the wayside, there are a couple little problems with this fix. The first is rounding all the mosquites up to infect them with the bacteria in the first place. The second is the inability of Wolbachia to confer lasting resistance. Scientists have managed to mitigate both concerns be engineering a mosquito capable of maintaining and spreading Wolbachia throughout it’s lifetime. Very cool, and possibly very useful.
NPR – “‘Groups have been trying to do this for more than 10 years,’ microbiologist George Dimopoulos, from the Johns Hopkins Malaria Institute, tells Shots. ‘So it’s a landmark achievement.’ The findings, reported Thursday in the journal Science, raise the possibility of one day controlling malaria with the bacteria.’You could just release large number of infected females and establish Wolbachia in a mosquito population…Gradually it would convert a malaria-spreading population to a non-spreading one.’ Specifically, Dimopoulos and his colleagues got Wolbachia to take up permanent residency inside Anopheles stephensi mosquito, the major malaria transmitter in South Asia and the Middle East.”
The Kansas state legislature has approved bonds supporting the construction of the National Bio- and Agr0-Defense Facility at Kansas State University. The new lab would replace the current agricultural lab located on Plum Island, off New York. The primary goal of the NBAF would be to research highly infectious animal pathogen like foot-and-mouth, in the hopes of further ensuring our nation’s agricultural security.
SF Gate – “Kansas has already authorized $105 million in bonds to help finance the project. State officials expect the lab to create more than 300 new jobs averaging more than $75,000 in salary and benefits.President Barack Obama’s latest proposed federal budget includes $714 million for the new lab. Both the Senate’s bill and the House committee’s plan would prevent the state from issuing the new bonds until the U.S. Department of Homeland Security has signed its contract with the construction company that will build the lab. Also, the federal government would be on the hook for construction cost overruns.”
France Probes 3 Suspected Cases of SARS-Like Virus
The Pandora Report 