Ebola’s “Top-Secret” Serum: What Is It? Why Would It Be Kept Secret?

By Chris Healey

The deadliest and most pervasive Ebola outbreak in history is underway in Africa. As of August 8, the World Health Organization reported 1134 confirmed cases of Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone with 622 confirmed deaths.

Two Americans, Kent Brantly and Nancy Writebol, contracted Ebola while helping contain the epidemic in Africa. Both were flown to isolation units in Atlanta’s Emory University Hospital after receiving an experimental treatment called ZMapp. Brantly and Writebol’s condition is reportedly improving because of the drug.

ZMapp is the experimental brainchild of several pharmaceutical companies and their collaboration with the U.S. and Canadian governments. It is a combination of three antibodies determined to be the best components of two experimental Ebola treatments: MB-003 and ZMAb.

MB-003 is composed of a monoclonal antibody and an immune system stimulant. The monoclonal antibody binds to Ebola virus surface proteins to form a structure easily recognized as a threat by the host’s immune system. Mimicry allows the immune system stimulant to produce an inflammation-like response without causing tissue damage, serving to amplify immune response without damaging the host.

ZMAb, a combination of mouse-derived antibodies, inactivates Ebola virus surface proteins necessary for host cell entry. If Ebola virus cannot enter a host cell, it cannot cause illness. For higher efficacy, ZMAb antibodies target different parts of the surface proteins, making viral adaptation to the antibodies difficult.

ZMapp attracted much attention because it was used without being tested. Mapp Biopharmaceutical was preparing to enter Phase 1 clinical trials prior to the Ebola outbreak. Use of ZMapp in lieu of clinical trials is permitted by FDA regulations allowing drugs currently, or not at all, involved in clinical trials to be used in extenuating circumstances where no other pharmaceutical is appropriate.

ZMapp is not the first untested pharmaceutical to be used against Ebola in humans. In 2009, a researcher in Germany accidently exposed herself to Ebola virus when she pricked herself with an ebola-contaminated needle during a laboratory experiment. Within 48 hours, she was given an experimental Ebola vaccine never before used in humans. After 21 days, physicians prepared to discharge her from a Hamburg, Germany hospital because she had not developed any symptoms.

It is unclear if the vaccine prevented illness, or if the needle stick simply didn’t infect her with Ebola. Regardless, she produced Ebola virus antibodies after vaccine administration, indicating the vaccine produced an immune response.

When use of ZMapp was first reported, it was hailed in stories circulated by CNN as a “secret” and “top-secret” serum. However, current versions of the story now portray the serum as an “experimental drug.” It is unclear if the original reports of the serum’s secrecy were in error.

However, development of secret therapeutics is not farfetched. Classified treatments could conceivably serve national security interests.

State-sponsored bioweapon programs, for example, could use knowledge of existing therapeutics, such as those kept in the strategic national stockpile, to engineer biological agents resistant to available therapeutics. Such a tactic would cripple U.S. public health response to any weaponized agent. If ZMapp truly was classified, the U.S. may have been protecting the drug’s therapeutic mechanisms from those who would seek to overcome them.

Although withholding treatments would benefit the U.S., it raises ethical concerns. Some could argue treatment sequestration provides little benefit outside the U.S. A novel, effective treatment withheld in preparation for an attack –that may never occur– could be used in the present to treat the sick.

The merits of transparency must be weighed against interests of national security. For ZMapp, if it was classified, two American candidates for the drug were enough to bring it into the public domain.

 

Image Credit: International Business Times

Image of the Week: Influenza!

11825_loresThis illustration provides a 3D graphical representation of a generic influenza virion’s ultrastructure, and is not specific to a seasonal, avian or 2009 H1N1 virus. 

There are three types of influenza viruses: A, B and C. Human influenza A and B viruses cause seasonal epidemics of disease almost every winter in the United States. The emergence of a new and very different influenza virus to infect people can cause an influenza pandemic. Influenza type C infections cause a mild respiratory illness and are not thought to cause epidemics.

Influenza A viruses are divided into subtypes based on two proteins on the surface of the virus: the hemagglutinin (H), and the neuraminidase (N). There are 16 different hemagglutinin subtypes and 9 different neuraminidase subtypes. Influenza A viruses can be further broken down into different strains. Current subtypes of influenza A viruses found in people are influenza A (H1N1) and influenza A (H3N2) viruses. In the spring of 2009, a new influenza A (H1N1) virus emerged to cause illness in people. This virus was very different from regular human influenza A (H1N1) viruses and the new virus has caused an influenza pandemic.

Influenza B viruses are not divided into subtypes, however, influenza B viruses also can be further broken down into different strains.

 

Image and Caption Credit: CDC

Dual-use research as a wicked problem

Biodefense Professor Dr. Gregory Koblentz, of the George Mason School of Policy, Government and International Affairs, has published an article which appears in a special edition of Frontiers in Public Health. An excerpt of the article is available below with a link to the full article.

The challenge of dual-use research in the life sciences emerged vividly in 2011 as scientists and policy-makers debated what to do about article manuscripts that described how to modify the H5N1 avian influenza virus so that it could spread between mammals (1, 2). Since H5N1 emerged in Southeast Asia in 2003, it has sickened 667 people and caused 393 human deaths, as well as the deaths of millions of domestic and wild birds (3). The virus has not, however, demonstrated the ability to engage in sustained human-to-human transmission. If a new strain of H5N1 emerged with that capability, and it retained a high level of virulence, it could cause a global pandemic. The experiments by Yoshihiro Kawaoka from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and Ron Fouchier from Erasmus Medical Center in the Netherlands not only demonstrated that mammalian transmission of the virus was possible but also provided information on how to construct such a virus.

Read the entire article here.

This Week in DC: Events

August 11, 2014

Teleconference: Gaza Conflict Resumes After Ceasefire Ends
Date: August 11, 10:00am
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

The breakdown in the 72-hour Egyptian-brokered ceasefire and the resumption of the conflict between Israel and Hamas threatens to take the Gaza crisis to a new level. What are the prospects for escalation and/or for negotiations to de-escalate the situation? Can the requirements of the parties somehow be reconciled? What is the role of the Palestinian Authority and Egypt going forward? And what is the American role?

Join us BY PHONE as two veteran analysts of Israeli-Palestinian politics and security strategy discuss these and other issues.

Toll-Free Conference Line: 888-947-9018
Conference Line: 517-308-9006
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August 14, 2014

Preventing Violence in the Name of God: The Role of Religion in Diplomacy
Date: August 14, 10:00am
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC 20036

In his remarks at the launch of the State Department’s Office of Faith-Based Community Initiatives, Secretary of State John Kerry admonished, “We ignore the global impact of religion…at our peril,” and told Foreign Service officers “to go out and engage religious leaders and faith-based communities in our day-to-day work.” At a time when religious violence inflames much of the Middle East, the question of how diplomacy and religion can interact takes on high operational importance. What is the Department of State doing to fulfill Secretary Kerry’s instructions? What are the scope and limits of cooperation?

These are among the questions to be addressed in presentations by Jerry White (Conflict and Stability Operations, Department of State) and Arsalan Suleman (Organization for the Islamic Conference, Department of State), followed by comments from Ambassador Thomas R. Pickering (former Undersecretary of State). MEI Scholar and retired Foreign Service officer Allen Keiswetter will moderate the panel.

Register here.

Which Poses the Bigger Threat to U.S. National Security—Iran or Non-State Sunni Extremism?
Date: August 14, 12:00pm
Location: Hudson Institute, 1015 15th Street NW, 6th Floor, Washington DC 20005

With the belief that Iran’s nuclear weapons program constituted the greatest threat to U.S. interests in the Middle East, Barack Obama entered the White House hoping to achieve a historic reconciliation with the Islamic Republic. But the administration’s current policies throughout the region suggest that the White House no longer sees Iran as the key problem. Rather, it views the clerical regime as a potential partner, particularly when it comes to combating Sunni extremists like al Qaeda and ISIS. As Obama has explained in several interviews, the Iranian regime, while problematic, represents a real nation-state and rational actor that looks out for its interests and responds to incentives—which is not the case for non-state actors.

The White House has re-prioritized American strategy in the Middle East. Its policies in Syria and Iraq demonstrate that it now sees groups like al Qaeda and ISIS—rather than Iran—as the key threat to American interests. The question is whether the Obama administration has got it right. And if it’s wrong, what are the likely consequences?

On August 14th, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Lee Smith will moderate an expert panel featuring Michael Doran, Hillel Fradkin, and Brian Katulis to discuss whether non-state Sunni extremism or Iran constitutes the major strategic threat to American interests in the region.

Register here.

Pandora Report 08.09.14

I spent about 12 hours at Dulles Airport yesterday. I didn’t fly anywhere, but I was ensuring that 120 international students were able to get from Washington DC to their host families all over the country. You may have noticed that in the security areas of Dulles Airport they have televisions that go over proper security screening procedures. On these same screens, they also show CDC travel alerts.

In June (when I was ensuring that 450 students were able to get back to their home countries), the alerts were for MERS and mosquito borne diseases like dengue and Chikungunya. Yesterday, Ebola was on alert for travelers to West Africa.

Last week we looked at the fever pitch of Ebola, today, lets look at the diseases designated by the CDCs travel alerts at Dulles.

 

Zika Virus: Another Threat from the Asian Tiger Mosquito

Travel alerts from the CDC often include Chickungunya and Dengue fever, but another disease from the same vector—the tiger mosquit0—is receiving alerts as well. Zika Fever, was isolated in humans in the 1970s, but has relatively few documented cases. In 2007, the virus demonstrated epidemic capacity with 5,000 cases in Micronesia. In 2013 there were 55,000 cases in Polynesia. Today the CDC has issued Watch Level 1 alerts for Zika in Easter Island, French Polynesia, and the Cook Islands and urges travelers to practice usual precautions.

Entomology Today—“Originally from Asia, the tiger mosquito was introduced to Africa in 1991 and detected in Gabon in 2007, where its arrival undoubtedly contributed to the emergence of dengue, chikungunya, and as shown by this new study, zika. The rapid geographic expansion of this invasive species in Africa, Europe, and America allows for a risk of propagation of zika fever around the world.”

 

Ramadan pilgrimage season in Saudi Arabia mostly free from MERS

Saudi Arabia reported only ten new cases of MERS from June 28- July 28 during the month of Ramadan. In April and May of 2014, hundreds of people were infected by MERS, which raised concerns about infection rates during Ramadan and during the Hajj, which will take place in October, when millions of pilgrims will travel to Mecca. Since 2012, Saudi Arabia has confirmed over 700 cases of infection resulting in nearly 300 deaths. The CDC designates the Hajj as an Alert Level 2, and urges U.S. residents to practice enhanced precautions.

Al Arabiya—“Saudi Arabia and the World Health Organization have said they are imposing no travel or other restrictions due to MERS during the Hajj, but have encouraged very young or old pilgrims, and those suffering from chronic disease, not to come this year.”

 

WHO: Ebola ‘an international emergency’

This week, the World Health Organization declared that the spread of Ebola in West Africa is an international health emergency. They urged coordinated response in order to keep the spread of the virus under control. Though no travel or trade bans have been enacted, the WHO recommends that Ebola cases or contacts should not travel internationally. This comes at a time when states of emergency have been declared in Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone and the number of total cases has reached nearly 1,800 with over 950 deaths. The CDC designates outbreaks in these countries as a Warning Level 3, and urges U.S. residents to avoid non-essential travel.

BBC—“WHO director-general Dr. Margaret Chan appealed for help for the countries hit by the ‘most complex outbreak in the four decades of this disease.’

The decision by the WHO to declare Ebola a public health emergency is, by its own definition, an ‘extraordinary event’ which marks ‘a public health risk to other states through the international spread of disease’.”

 

Image Credit: The Denver Channel

Biocrime: Lessons Learned Contribute to Future Cases

By Chris Healey

Three individuals associated with Peanut Corp. of America are going to court over charges  related to intentionally shipping tainted peanuts. Those charges come after nine people died and 714 people were infected with Salmonella typhimurium after consuming peanut products shipped from the company.

Most cases of food contamination are not prosecuted, but the Justice Department alleges the individuals involved knew the peanuts were tainted and shipped their product anyway to avoid lost revenue.

Their case is considered a biocrime, a distinct offense unrelated to a more common term – bioterrorism. Biocrime involves the use of a biological agent to kill or sicken one or more individuals for revenge or monetary gain. Bioterrorism, however, is the use of biological agents to create casualties, terror, societal disruption, or economic loss inspired by ideological, religious or political beliefs. Biocrime is personal; bioterrorism is theater.


A notable, unsolved biocrime took place October 1996 at a large medical center in Texas. 12 laboratory workers became ill after eating muffins and doughnuts tainted with Shigella dysenteriae, which has been anonymously left in a break room between the night and morning shift. All 12 had consumed muffins, and stool isolates from nine of the victims were identical to Shigella dysenteriae retrieved from an uneaten muffin in the break room. Bacterial isolates from stool samples and the uneaten muffin were identical to a partially-missing laboratory stockpile of the same pathogen.

Biocrime is an attractive avenue for criminals with biological agent knowhow. Toxins and pathogens are indirect and stealthy. Pathogens must pass an incubation period—the time between introduction of the pathogen into the body and the onset of symptoms. During that time, criminals can escape and distance themselves from victims to avoid discovery.

Determining if an infection is the result of biocrime is extremely difficult. Many agents which can be used criminally, can also occur naturally. Biocrime identification depends on astute epidemiologic investigation and successful communication between scientific and law enforcement officials.

The advent of molecular biology in the late 20th century birthed the field of microbial forensics—assisting criminal investigations involving microbial organisms. However, it wasn’t until the anthrax letter attacks of 2001 that investigative short comings, such as inadequate methods of identifying agent sources based on genetic mutations, were addressed.

The anthrax letter attack investigation was a turning point in microbial forensics. It served as a proverbial rough draft that established a template for future biocrime and bioterrorism investigations. The justice system demonstrated it could wield biological science as an investigative tool and apply that knowledge toward identifying and prosecuting perpetrators.

 

Image Credit: Bhaskaranaidu

Category A Bioterrorism Agent Lands in the U.S.

By Alena James

It has been one seriously scary and depressing summer with the multitude of cataclysmic events taking place all around the globe.  Much like the thousands of immigrant children whose futures are still being debated by the U.S. and Mexico, many of these crises have remained outside of U.S. soil. However, one potential crisis has been willingly brought to the U.S.

A few days ago a protocol was established to send medical evacuation planes to Liberia to bring back two missionary American health care workers suffering from the Ebola virus.  The decision to bring the patients back to the U.S. raised great alarm among many Americans that there is a chance of a major outbreak occurring with a disease that the U.S. is not prepared to fight

This past week, the Director of the CDC, Dr. Thomas Frieden, continually claimed that the necessary precautions were being taken to ensure the safety of the public from being exposed to the virus. According to Frieden, the chances of an outbreak taking place in the U.S. are minimal. Ebola is a virus that is not airborne and is not acquired through casual contact with an infected patient. For individuals to be infected they must have direct contact with bodily fluids septic (contaminated) with the virus.

During a CNN interview, Frieden explained that the decision to bring the Americans back to the U.S. was made by Samaritan’s Purse, the organization to which the two infected Americans, Dr. Kent Brantly and Nancy Writebol, belong. The role of the CDC will be to help assist in the transport and supportive care of the patients upon arrival at Emory University Hospital in Atlanta, Georgia.

The plane that transported Dr. Kent Brantly on Saturday was fitted with an Aeromedical Biological Containment System. In this system, a tent like structure was set up on board a modified Gulfstream III aircraft and used to isolate Brantly from the rest of the people onboard.

During an aeromedical evacuation, a patient undergoes medical assessment and evaluation before transport. This is to ensure the patient’s survival during the course of the trip. According to a study conducted by the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases in Fort Detrick, Maryland, the physiologic effects of altitude, effect of confinement on patient-care delivery, and psychological effect of confinement within the containment system must be taken into consideration before transport.

Dr. Brantly arrived safely in the United States on Saturday at Dobbins Air Force Base in Marietta, Georgia. He was then transported to Emory University Hospital in Atlanta.

So, why exactly was the decision made to bring back to the Americans infected with a viral agent; which the CDC has classified as a Category A Bioterrorism Agent and to which there is no cure?

In his interview with CNN, Dr. Frieden, gave credit for the medical evacuation operation to Samaritan’s Purse. However, without the assistance of the State Department, the U.S. military, and the CDC it seems likely that the operation would not have come to fruition at all.

The reasoning for this evacuation, made by many advocates, seems to lie with the high level of confidence among those at the CDC and Emory University in their ability to control and contain the infected patients.  Despite the unprecedented nature of an Ebola patient returning to the U.S., infectious disease experts maintain the appropriate precautions are being made and the virus will remain contained.

The medical evacuation operations for Dr. Brantly and Nancy Writebol do not offer only an increased chance of recovery from Ebola and the chance to be reunited with their loved ones—if only through a glass partition. These operations also provide an opportunity for America’s best infectious disease experts and healthcare workers to gain firsthand experience with actual cases of a virus not available for study at clinical levels in the U.S. The medical evacuation operation is also beneficial to emergency response personnel who have been training on how to deal with these types of medical cases for years.

Over the summer, Americans watched intently as the creditability of the CDC took a hit when many of its laboratory staff failed to abide by proper laboratory safety techniques upon dealing with samples of Bacillus anthracis and H5N1.  The CDC and NIH’s credibility took another hit when the CDC discovered more than 200 vials of smallpox in a refrigerator in an NIH lab in Bethesda, Maryland.

Hopefully the fouls ups of the past have provided important lessons for all fields working with infectious diseases to take safety protocols very seriously…especially while working with patients suffering from a virus that has no cure.

 

Image Credit: Yahoo

This Week in DC: Events

August 5, 2014

Tunisia’s Democratic Successes: A Conversation with the President of Tunisia
Date: August 5, 11:00am
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

Please join us for a conversation with Tunisian President, Moncef Marzouki to discuss successes to date and the how the country can address pressing economic and security challenges as its democratic transition continues.

With both presidential and parliamentary elections due late this year, Tunisia once again faces imminent milestones in its political history. Although many challenges remain, Tunisia has made significant progress since 2011 in the development of democratic institutions and a culture of pluralism. Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki will join the Atlantic Council for an exclusive engagement to discuss successes to date and the how the country can address pressing economic and security challenges as its democratic transition continues. In 2012, the Atlantic Council awarded President Marzouki its Freedom Award in recognition of his unique role and the achievements of the Tunisian people.

Watch this event online.

The Gaza Crisis: No Way Out? Policy Options and Regional Implications
Date: August 5, 2:00pm
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC 20036

The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has lasted less than a month, but has already surpassed the 2008 war in physical destruction and human cost. While U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry works intensely to achieve an immediate cease-fire, both Israelis and Palestinians appear prepared for a protracted conflict, and regional players jockey for advantage. Many question whether the United States still has enough clout and influence to bring about a cease-fire, never mind a negotiated peace agreement that would resolve the tensions underlying this crisis.

On Tuesday, August 5, the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host a panel discussion examining the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the U.S. handling of the crisis, and the regional implications and influences. Brookings Vice President for Foreign Policy and former U.S. Special Envoy to the Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations Martin Indyk will share his observations and insights. He will be joined by fellows Natan Sachs and Khaled Elgindy, a former adviser to the Palestinian negotiating team. Tamara Wittes, director of Brookings’s Center of Middle East Policy, will moderate the discussion.

After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.

Register here.

Putting the South Caucasus in Perspective
Date: August 5, 3:00pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 6th Floor Conference Room, Washington DC

Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have been independent states for more than 23 years. Although geographically contiguous, they differ in language, religion, and political and security orientation. How is each country faring in state-building, developing democracy, and improving economic performance? What are their relationships with Russia and the West, and with each other? How does their historical experience influence current developments, and what are their long term prospects? Join us for a town hall discussion of these and other issues with two of the most prominent academic experts of the South Caucasus, Professors Ronald Suny and Stephen Jones. The discussion will be moderated by Wilson Center Global Fellow, Ambassador (ret.) Kenneth Yalowitz.

RSVP here.

 

August 6, 2014

Privacy vs. Democracy: The Challenge for Japan and Australia
Date: August 6, 4:00pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 4th Floor, Washington DC

Protecting privacy is as critical as information sharing. In a democracy, protecting information goes hand-in-hand with ensuring individual liberty, and the rapid development of digital technology has made the protection of privacy even more important.  One key challenge for democratic governance is formulating policies to ensure information privacy protection.  In contrast to the United States and Western Europe, where privacy regulation started in the early 1970s, privacy regulation began to develop in Japan and Australia only in the 1980s, but each country has slowly developed comprehensive privacy regulation since then.  Japan scholar and Minnesota State University professor Eiji Kawabata will examine the development of privacy policy in Japan and Australia, and assess policies that would be effective in balancing privacy protection and ensuring national security.

RSVP here.

Loved? Liked? Respected? The Success and Failure of U.S. Public Diplomacy
Date: August 6, 6:00pm
Location: Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050, Washington DC

Public diplomacy – the art of one government influencing the public opinion of another country – is complicated and controversial, particularly in an age when social media can spark a revolution. In this special program for interns, LINK, on behalf of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, will host a debate on the value of U.S. public diplomacy. To analyze the role of public diplomacy in the Middle East – with particular attention to the crisis in Gaze, the ISIS campaign in Iraq, the ongoing conflict in Syria, and escalating terrorist threats in the region – Institute’s Executive Director Robert Satloff will stand off against the former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Iraq, James Jeffrey in a debate moderated by Viola Gienger of the United States Institute of Peace.

 

August 7, 2014

Elections Worth Dying For? A Selection of Case Studies from Africa
Date: August 7, 12:00pm
Location: International Foundation for Electoral Systems, 1850 K Street NW, Suite 500, Washington DC

The book Elections Worth Dying For? A Selection of Case Studies from Africaexamines the roots of violence within election processes in Africa from a variety of perspectives. Using recent case studies written by leading specialists in electoral processes in Africa, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) shows how electoral violence and prevention efforts fit within the context of the entire electoral cycle.

The forthcoming series of case studies examines how violence and its rate of incidence are affected by electoral management bodies, election technology, political finance, the media, women, youth and, importantly, political parties, among others. IFES believes the lessons taken from this study can support the prevention of electoral violence and encourage free and fair elections in Africa, and around the world.

Join IFES for a special book launch event. IFES’ event, taking place during the week of the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit, underlines the importance of engaging in questions of potential election violence and how to best mitigate it through a series of broad-ranging case studies.

RSVP here. 

AIDS 2014: What Happened and What’s Next?
Date: August 7, 2:00pm
Location: Kaiser Family Foundation Offices, 1330 G Street NW, Washington DC

The Kaiser Family Foundation and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) will hold a briefing to assess the major outcomes of the 2014 International AIDS Conference (AIDS 2014), held from July 20-25 in Melbourne, Australia. The discussion will touch on the latest scientific developments; the current funding climate for the AIDS response; the impact of anti-LGBT laws on efforts to address HIV/AIDS around the world; and other major contributions to the field emerging from the conference.

Panelists will include Chris Beyrer, President of the International AIDS Society; Ambassador Deborah L. Birx, the U.S. Global AIDS Coordinator; and Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center at CSIS. Jen Kates, Kaiser Family Foundation Vice President and Director of Global Health and HIV Policy, will moderate the panel discussion.

 

August 8, 2014

Beyond North Waziristan
Date: July 28, 10:30am
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

As the Pakistani army wages a long-awaited operation, Zarb-e-Azb, against militant sanctuaries in North Waziristan, there are questions about how effectively it confronts the long-term challenge of terrorism in the region. This offensive has disrupted the former main operational base for Pakistani militants, Afghan insurgents, al Qaeda, and central Asian militants. Although the Army has seized control of main towns and put militants on the defensive, there are concerns that a significant part of the militant nexus fled the area for safer havens prior to the operation. The Army and government must now contend with the formidable challenges of sheltering and rehabilitating nearly a million displaced persons, stemming new threats from militants who fled to other parts of the country or Afghanistan, and responding to charges from the United States and Afghanistan of not taking sufficient military action against the Haqqani Network. How is the Nor th Waziristan operation impacting militant groups operating in the region, and the overall stability of Pakistan? Can the United States, Afghanistan, and Pakistan work together to address sanctuaries for insurgents on both sides of the border? Ikram Sehgal and Hassan Abbas will highlight the progress, pitfalls, and implications of Pakistan’s strategy in North Waziristan.

Register here.

Pandora Report 8.2.14

What a mess, right? While we here at the Pandora Report have been watching the Ebola outbreak in West Africa since March, it seems coverage in the news media has reached a fever pitch as the effects of the virus reach further and further.

This week we cover Ebola—a case in Nigeria, the evacuation of Peace Corps, the transfer of patients to the U.S. and treating the disease.

Nigeria Isolates Hospital in Lagos as Obama Briefed on Ebola Outbreak

Early in the week we learned of the first case of Ebola in Nigeria. It is important to note in this case, that the virus was imported from an American man, Patrick Sawyer, who travelled from Liberia. Fears rose over the importation to Africa’s most populous capital city—Lagos—and the hospital he was in was evacuated and is going through the process of decontamination.

Reuters UK—“Authorities were monitoring 59 people who were in contact with Sawyer, including airport contacts, the Lagos state health ministry said, but it said the airline had yet to provide a passenger list for the flights Sawyer used.

Derek Gatherer, a virologist at Britain’s University of Lancaster, said anyone on the plane near Sawyer could be in “pretty serious danger,” but that Nigeria was better placed to tackle the outbreak than its neighbors.”

Peace Corps Evacuates Ebola-Affected Region, With Two Volunteers in Isolation 

On Wednesday, the Peace Corps announced the evacuation of 340 volunteers from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Two volunteers from Liberia, however, were unable to leave. It is reported that the volunteers had contact with an individual who died from Ebola; they have to remain in an isolation ward for 21 days before leaving.

The Peace Corps—“The Peace Corps has enjoyed long partnerships with the government and people of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea and is committed to continuing volunteers’ work there. A determination on when volunteers can return will be made at a later date.”

First Ebola Patient Arrives in U.S.

News came this week that two Americans infected with Ebola would be transferred to the U.S. for treatment at Emory University Hospital in Atlanta, GA.  Dr. Kent Brantly, who had been working at a treatment center in Liberia, was flown on a jet with a special containment area for patients with infectious diseases. He walked into Emory Hospital on Saturday unaided and is the first case of Ebola to arrive in the U.S.

Emory has an isolation unit built 12 years ago to treat patients exposed to highly infectious diseases.

Wall Street Journal—“Bruce Ribner, an infectious-diseases doctor and head of a special isolation unit at Emory University Hospital, said Friday there were good reasons to airlift the two to Emory. “We can deliver a substantially higher level of care, a substantially higher level of support, to optimize the likelihood that those patients will survive this episode,” he said.

Dr. Ribner added that he was “cautiously optimistic” the two have a good chance of recovery once they reach Emory, and that the transfer would be safe.”

Ebola Vaccine Possible, but Many Doubts Persist 

Vaccine development for Ebola has been being worked on for years, but with the increasing severity of this outbreak in West Africa, there has been discussion in the U.S. about fast-tracking vaccine trials for this virus. Even with this option—once approval is received from the FDA—many doubts persist and scientists who study the virus warn that the success is hardly guaranteed. Even if the vaccine proves to be effective in tests, questions remain as to who would receive it and how to figure out optimal dosages.

In short, even the development of vaccine candidates does not ensure success or virus eradication.

The New York Times—“The vaccine to be tested in humans relies on a benign virus that carries two proteins from the surface of the Ebola virus. The proteins help the virus penetrate human cells. If successful, the immune system will be trained to recognize the proteins and to mount a strong response should it encounter the virus.”

 

Image Credit: Atlanta Better Buildings Challenge