Tag: avian influenza

Pandora Report 1.10.2025

by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

Happy New Year! This week’s Pandora Report covers late former President Jimmy Carter’s decades of global health work, updates on H5N1 in the United States, the launch of the Biosafety and Biosecurity Innovation Initiative, and more.

Former President Carter’s Global Health Legacy

The passing of former US President Jimmy Carter marks the end of an incredible life dedicated to serving others. Carter leaves behind a beautiful legacy that stems from much more than his time in the White House. In the decades after his presidency, Carter oversaw many initiatives focused on improving global health through the Carter Center. One example is his work to eradicate Guinea worm disease of which, as the WHO explained in a statement, “Under his championship cases dropped from 3.5 million in the mid-1980s to just 11 so far in 2024.”

Carter also supported WHO’s African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control, trachoma elimination programs across sub-Saharan Africa, mass drug administration campaigns for schistosomiasis, and the International Task Force for Disease Eradication, helping set the global agenda for eliminating multiple NTDs. In addition to this, Carter spent his life post-presidency doing everything from negotiating with the likes of Kim Il-sung to building homes as a Habitat for Humanity volunteer, continuously demonstrating his dedication to helping others.

Further Reading:

H5N1 Updates

First US Bird Flu Death Reported

A person has died in Louisiana after being admitted to the hospital with a severe case of avian influenza. This marks the first death in the US as a result of an H5 infection. The person fell ill after exposure to a backyard flock and wild birds. They were over the age of 65 and had multiple underlying medical conditions. There is no sign yet that the virus is spreading from person-to-person in the United States. As of January 6, 2025, there have been 66 confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu in the United States since 2024 and 67 since 2022.

Biden Administration Ramps Up Preparedness Efforts

The Biden administration is making a final effort to improve the country’s pandemic preparedness ahead of President-elect Trump’s inauguration by announcing it will nearly double the amount of money committed to addressing bird flu in humans. The administration announced this week that it is committing $306 million to improving hospital preparedness, early stage research on therapeutics, diagnostics, and vaccines. Furthermore, $103 million of this will be aimed at helping state and local efforts to track cases and test people exposed to infected animals, in addition to worker outreach for those handling livestock and others at higher risk.

Further Reading:

Launch of the Biosafety and Biosecurity Innovation Initiative

In December 2024, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) launched the Biosafety and Biosecurity Innovation Initiative (BBII) to reduce biological risks associated with advances in biotechnology and biomanufacturing in accordance with the September 2022 Executive Order on Advancing Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Innovation for a Sustainable, Safe, and Secure American Bioeconomy.

The BBII is designed to coordinate and prioritize support for biorisk research and incentivize biosafety and biosecurity innovation across all sectors that support the bioeconomy. The BBII Plan for the Bioeconomy serves as a framework for U.S. government coordination of BBII, led by NIH, and recommends investment in strengthening opportunities for biosafety and biosecurity research and innovation; incentivizing development and implementation of evidence-based best biological risk management practices, carried out by a competent workforce; and fostering a culture of biosafety and biosecurity to encourage trust and norms. 

United Nations Human Rights Office Says Israeli Attacks on Gaza Push Healthcare in Enclave “to Brink of Collapse”

The United Nations Human Rights Office (OHCHR) issued a report late last month documenting attacks carried out by Israel in Gaza between October 12, 2023, and June 30, 2024, and their impact on healthcare facilities and personnel. The report raises serious concerns about Israel’s compliance with international law, under which medical personnel and hospitals are specifically protected. In a statement, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said, “As if the relentless bombing and the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza were not enough, the one sanctuary where Palestinians should have felt safe in fact became a death trap…The protection of hospitals during warfare is paramount and must be respected by all sides, at all times.”

Read more about the report here.

“Development of Effective Medical Countermeasures Against the Main Biowarfare Agents: The Importance of Antibodies”

Arnaud Avril, Sophie Guillier, and Christine Rasetti-Escargueil  recently published this article in Microorganisms: “The COVID-19 and mpox crisis has reminded the world of the potentially catastrophic consequences of biological agents. Aside from the natural risk, biological agents can also be weaponized or used for bioterrorism. Dissemination in a population or among livestock could be used to destabilize a nation by creating a climate of terror, by negatively impacting the economy and undermining institutions. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) classify biological agents into three categories (A or Tier 1, B and C) according to the risk they pose to the public and national security. Category A or Tier 1 consists of the six pathogens with the highest risk to the population (Bacillus anthracis, Yersinia pestis, Francisella tularensis, botulinum neurotoxins, smallpox and viral hemorrhagic fevers). Several medical countermeasures, such as vaccines, antibodies and chemical drugs, have been developed to prevent or cure the diseases induced by these pathogens. This review presents an overview of the primary medical countermeasures, and in particular, of the antibodies available against the six pathogens on the CDC’s Tier 1 agents list, as well as against ricin.”

“Research and Development of Medical Countermeasures for Emerging Infectious Diseases, China, 1990–2022”

Jiyan Ma, Yang Yang, and Yangmu Huang published this article in Emerging Infectious Diseases: “Since the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in 2003, China has invested substantial efforts in promoting scientific and technological advances for medical countermeasures against high-threat pathogens. The examination of China’s landscape identifies progress and gaps in research and development (R&D) and also highlights management and regulatory issues that should be of concern to other countries. Our study examined the current state of R&D of medical countermeasures in China during 1990–2022. The findings showed a robust and diversified pipeline responding quickly to disease outbreaks and policy changes. However, proactive and highly innovative candidates are limited, and a large proportion of vaccines and drugs stagnate at the early development stage. A paradigm shift involving a preemptive R&D agenda and persistent investment, innovative technology development, and accelerated research translation is urgently needed to prepare for the next pandemic.”

“Strategic Report on Research and Development in Biotechnology for Defense Innovation”

From NASEM: “At the request of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology, Strategic Report on Research and Development in Biotechnology for Defense Innovation provides an overview of the current landscape of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML)-enabled biotechnology, the opportunities it presents, and the challenges it poses. This report offers a strategic vision for connecting scientists and technologists to build on, leverage, and tailor advances at the intersection of AI/ML, automated experimentation, and biotechnology to drive innovation in defense-related biotechnologies. Strategic Report on Research and Development in Biotechnology for Defense Innovation makes recommendations to address long-standing challenges that have limited research, development, prototyping, testing and evaluation, and eventual use of biotechnologies. Addressing these challenges will help to advance U.S. national security and defense by improving the performance of existing capabilities, enabling the creation of domestic supply chains of valuable products, reducing reliance on processes and chemicals that are harmful to the environment, and/or adding new capabilities not currently possible with established technologies.”

“COVID 5 Years Later: Learning from a Pandemic Many Are Forgetting”

Jon Cohen discusses reflections on the COVID-19 pandemic in the scientific community in this piece from Science, writing in part “Yet 5 years after a coronavirus dubbed SARS-CoV-2 first surfaced in Wuhan, China, scientists are still intensively trying to make sense of COVID-19. “We would each have to read over 240 papers every single day to actually keep up with all of the [COVID-19] literature that’s come out” in 2024, Cherilyn Sirois, an editor at Cell, noted…Despite the flood of insights into the behavior of the virus and how to prevent it from causing harm, many at the meeting worried the world has turned a blind eye to the lessons learned from the pandemic. “I feel this massive gravitational pull to go back to what we were doing before,” Van Kerkhove said. “There’s no way we should be going back.”’

“The SARS-CoV-2 Test Scale-Up in the USA: An Analysis of the Number of Tests Produced and Used Over Time and Their Modelled Impact on the COVID-19 Pandemic”

Santos et al. recently published this article in The Lancet Public Health: “Background: Rapid, accessible, and accurate testing was paramount to an effective US COVID-19 response. Federal partners supported SARS-CoV-2 testing scale-up through an interagency-coordinated approach that focused on expanding supply chains, research and development, validation, and improving patient access. We aimed to provide an overview of the federal efforts to scale up the testing response and study the impact of scale-up.”

“Methods: In this descriptive analysis, we mapped federal partner activities and milestones using the US Government Testing and Diagnostics Working Group (TDWG) and participating agency and department data from Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2022. Tests produced (TDWG), reported test positivity (US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC]’s COVID-19 Electronic Laboratory Reporting system and the Federal Direct Report testing data), reported COVID-19 case counts (CDC), hospitalisations (Department of Health and Human Services Unified Hospital Data Surveillance System and the CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network), and deaths (CDC) were analysed over time. We then developed an agent-based model to evaluate the impact testing had on COVID-19 outcomes using different scenarios. The scenarios were (1) if efforts led to substantially fewer tests produced, (2) if scale-up was delayed, affecting test access, and (3) if efforts led to substantially more tests produced.”

“Findings: Approximately 6·7 billion SARS-CoV-2 tests, including over 1·5 billion laboratory-based, 1·9 billion point-of-care (POC), and 3·2 billion over-the-counter (OTC) tests, were produced, and approximately 2·7 billion tests were performed between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2022. Testing capacity exhibited various expansion phases, with laboratory-based capacity growing from approximately 6 million tests per month in March, 2020 to approximately 34 million tests per month in July, 2020; POC increased to approximately 126 million tests per month by December, 2020, and OTC increased to approximately 986 million tests per month by February, 2022. Comparison between the baseline (actual) and delay-in-testing scenario suggests the increased testing capacity potentially saved upwards of 1·4 million lives and averted 7 million hospitalisations.”

“Interpretation: Our study suggests that early development, manufacturing, and distribution of tests had a great impact on reducing severe COVID-19 outcomes. These results highlight the importance of robust and rapid test development, production, and distribution when addressing future public health threats.”

“Global Health’s Evolution and Search for Identity”

Kevin M. De Cock recently published this article in Emerging Infectious Diseases: “Despite earlier attempts to define global health, the discipline’s boundaries are unclear, its priorities defined more by funding from high-income countries from the Global North than by global health trends. Governance and resource allocation are challenged by movements such as decolonizing global health. Inherent contradictions within global health derive from its historical evolution from tropical medicine and international health, as well as recent trends in infectious diseases. Demographic, socioeconomic, and epidemiologic transitions, including the rise in noncommunicable diseases, have eroded the concept of a binary world of developed and developing countries. Competitive tension has emerged between aspirations for global health security and health equity. Dominant principles should focus on vulnerable populations, transnational challenges such as migration and climate change, appropriate prevention and care, and epidemic preparedness and response capacity. As the 2030 target date for the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals approaches, reconceptualization of global health is required, or the discipline risks losing identity and relevance.”

“The Elusive Payoff of Gain-of-Function Research”

Charles Schmidt discusses the potential risks of GOF research in this piece for Undark, writing in part “But that’s not necessarily true of studies that alter dangerous pathogens to assess how they might become more virulent or transmissible. Public controversies have erupted over this sort of research, but in fact few such studies have been performed so far. The research might reveal mutations that turn pathogens into bigger human health problems. Armed with that knowledge, scientists could look for those genetic changes during disease surveillance, with an aim to identify and prepare for looming outbreaks.”

“Interview: Overseeing the Research That Might Start a Pandemic”

“Biosecurity expert Gerald Epstein discusses how certain high-risk science should be regulated,” in this Undark piece by Sara Talpos: “The risks of this research “do not disappear merely because no government funds are involved,” wrote Epstein in an article published last year in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Epstein isn’t sure if this type of work is happening in the private sector, but if it is, it is largely unregulated. Epstein would like to see oversight broadened, possibly through new legislation, expansion of certain government regulations, or increased scrutiny from companies that provide liability insurance.”

“For Science That Comes With Risks, a Key Question: Who Decides?”

Michael Schulson and Peter Andrey Smith discuss research oversight in this piece for Undark, explaining in part “The extent of oversight also varies across disciplines, both domestically and across the globe, with pathogen research being much more regulated than the more emergent fields of AI and geoengineering. For AI and pathogen research, our focus is limited to the United States — reflecting both a need to limit the scope of our reporting, and the degree to which American science currently leads the world in both fields, even as it faces stiff competition on AI from China.”

“With those caveats in mind, we offer a sampling — illustrative but by no means comprehensive — of people who are part of the decision-making chain in each category as of late 2024. Taken as a whole, they appear to be a deeply unrepresentative group — one disproportionately White, male, and drawn from the professional class. In some cases, they occupy the top tiers of business or government. In others, they are members of lesser-known organizational structures — and in still others, the identities of key players remain entirely unknown.”

Pathogenesis: How Germs Made History

In this revelatory book, Dr Jonathan Kennedy argues that germs have shaped humanity at every stage, from the first success of Homo sapiens over the equally intelligent Neanderthals to the fall of Rome and the rise of Islam.

How did an Indonesian volcano help cause the Black Death, setting Europe on the road to capitalism? How could 168 men extract the largest ransom in history from an opposing army of eighty thousand? And why did the Industrial Revolution lead to the birth of the modern welfare state?

The latest science reveals that infectious diseases are not just something that happens to us, but a fundamental part of who we are. Indeed, the only reason humans don’t lay eggs is that a virus long ago inserted itself into our DNA, and there are as many bacteria in your body as there are human cells. We have been thinking about the survival of the fittest all wrong: evolution is not simply about human strength and intelligence, but about how we live and thrive in a world dominated by microbes.

By exploring the startling intimacy of our relationship with infectious diseases, Kennedy shows how they have been responsible for some of the seismic revolutions of the past 50,000 years. Provocative and brimming with insight, Pathogenesis transforms our understanding of the human story.

Learn more about this book here.

“Best Biosecurity Coverage of 2024”

Matt Field highlights last year’s biosecurity coverage in this piece for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, explaining in his intro “A through line in much of the Bulletin’s biosecurity coverage of 2024 was a focus on infectious diseases—the toll they can exact (did one fell the mighty Roman empire?), the role climate change is playing in their spread, and even the non-natural routes by which they may jump into humans.”

“Richard Hatchett Reflects on a “Banner Year for Viruses” and Looks Ahead to 2025″

CEPI’s CEO Dr Richard Hatchett shares his personal reflections on the year and looks ahead to 2025 in this post, writing in part “One can always choose to be discouraged.  The context in which we are working to prevent epidemics and pandemics is shaped by the polarization of our societies and pathologies of our geopolitics. And these are genuinely discouraging.  Some of the governments that have done most to support this work are in transition, with the uncertainty that all democratic change brings. Others are in disarray due to the splintering of governing coalitions or loss of public confidence. Others face elections in the coming year, at a moment when anti-incumbent sentiment is high.  All are grappling with serious fiscal constraints and security challenges that demand attention and resources.  Global health institutions are struggling to secure funding, and major initiatives are in jeopardy.  Just one example are the intractable differences between the negotiating parties on certain key issues that have stymied progress and paralyzed negotiations on the Pandemic Accord for months. The prospects for a successful conclusion to this critical process seem increasingly dim.”

“All these facts acknowledged and notwithstanding, I have arrived at the end of this complicated year feeling upbeat.  Progress, particularly in areas driven by the evolution of science and technology, seldom follows a neat and linear course (think, for example, of the creative destruction that has characterized the growth of the internet and our digital economy over the last several decades).  Progress is organic.  It grows. Its roots extend continuously and often out of sight, even in the cold and bleak times. Progress materializes – emerges – in ways that can be surprising and sudden, like the spring after winter’s dreariness.  In my effort to describe the year that has been, I will point repeatedly at signs and signifiers of this global organic development. It is these, rather than the foam of political processes, that give cause for optimism.”

Written in DNA

“Asimov Press’ latest anthology features nine essays and three works of science fiction. Embracing the book’s technology theme, we did something very special: With the help of three companies — CATALOG, Imagene, and Plasmidsaurus — we’ve encoded a complete copy of the book into DNA, thus merging bits with atoms.”

“This is the first commercially-available book to be written in DNA and sold in both mediums; as physical books and nucleic acids. We are deeply grateful to those who helped make it possible.”

Learn more here.

“Trump Should Get Tough Again on Chemical Weapons States”

FDD’s Andrea Stricker discusses her thoughts on US foreign policy towards CW states in this piece, writing in part of the incoming Trump administration, “The team should announce a new policy to enact targeted financial sanctions against states that develop and use chemical weapons. In practice, this means the U.S. would freeze assets held by financial institutions that transact with foreign chemical weapons-related entities and individuals and would restrict those institutions from accessing the U.S. financial system. Executive Order 13382, already on the books since 2005, authorizes the president to sanction weapons of mass destruction proliferators and supporters and block related property and transactions, but a new executive order specific to chemical weapons could help.”

“Future for Syria and the Chemical Weapons Convention: The Legislative Implications”

From VERTIC: “This article, by Eliza Walsh, Thomas Brown and Larry MacFaul, identifies priorities and actions addressing chemical weapons and Syria, from the perspective of implementing the Chemical Weapons Convention and reviewing national legislation both in Syria itself and other countries.”

“Syrian Medics Say Were Coerced Into False Chemical Attack Testimony”

Layal Abou Rahal reports in this piece from AFP, explaining in part “Two Syrian doctors and a nurse told AFP in a series of interviews over the weekend that Bashar al-Assad’s government coerced them into providing false testimony to international investigators after a deadly 2018 chlorine attack…The three, who treated the wounded at a field hospital in the rebel-held town of Douma near Damascus after the April 7, 2018 attack, said they were summoned to national security headquarters in the capital.”

“‘Nobody Was Spared’: Damascus Suburbs Still Haunted by Assad Regime’s Chemical Attacks”

Johan Bodin’s reporting for FRANCE 24: “The Ghouta area east of Damascus witnessed some of the most vicious and sustained fighting of the Syrian civil war, including deadly chemical weapons attacks launched by ousted strongman Bashar al-Assad’s regime. FRANCE 24 reporters visited Ghouta’s bombed-out ruins and spoke to residents haunted by the horror they endured.”

“If Syrian Chemical Weapons Were Found, the U.S. Army Could Safely Destroy Them”

John Ismay discuss the US’s ability to destroy chemical weapons and how it may apply to Syria’s remaining stock in this piece for The New York Times: “For decades chemical weapons were usually destroyed by incinerating them, but the United States largely abandoned the practice because of safety concerns near disposal sites raised by the public.”

“A process called hydrolysis became the preferred technique. That involves chemically breaking apart the lethal properties of liquid agents by combining them with hot water and a substance akin to commercially available drain cleaner.”

“It is the same method the Pentagon used to destroy the last of its own chemical weapons stockpile last year. But while that process took place in a series of warehouses spread over dozens of acres, a new portable hydrolysis system developed in Aberdeen was packed into just two standard 20-foot shipping containers.”

Compass Issue 3

The third issue of Compass, UN Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute’s journal dedicated to the objectives of UNSCR 1540, is available now here. This issue includes articles like “Ensuring Compliance with UNSCR 1540 through Kenya’s Nuclear Regulatory Framework,” “Japan’s Practice to Secure Nuclear Facilities: Evolving Implementation of OP 3 (a) and (b),” and “Supporting Resolution 1540 with CISA Chemical Security’s ChemLock Programme.”

NEW: Sustainable Manufacturing: Building and Preserving a Resilient Medical Industrial Base

“Join industry and government partners for our second annual industry summit! During this event, leaders from IBMSC will share our strategic vision and organizational priorities. Speakers will also share potential opportunities for building and preserving the medical industrial base.  This event will be in-person only and space is limited!”

This event will take place March 11-12 in Washington, DC. Learn more and register here.

Understanding the Introduction of Pathogens into Humans- Preventing Patient Zero: A Workshop

“The past few decades have seen the emergence of several diseases with drastic public health and economic consequences. Understanding routes of pathogen emergence and transmission is critical to preventing and mitigating disease spillover and amplification. The National Academies Forum on Microbial Threats will host a hybrid public workshop to address gaps in understanding of disease emergence, with a focus on human-animal interaction and laboratory biosafety. The workshop will explore how applications of existing policy structures, emerging technologies, and actionable research can improve biosecurity measures and prevention of future disease emergence.”

This event will take place on January 15 and 16. Learn more and register here.

How to Avoid Human-Made Pandemics

From the Asia Centre for Health Security: “Studying viruses that could potentially cause outbreaks is one of the most effective ways to reduce the risk of pandemics. However, this type of research—especially when it involves collecting samples from the field and manipulating pathogens—can unintentionally lead to a pandemic if not managed carefully. Dr Lentzos will discuss her findings from the Pathogen Project, which brought together an international taskforce of scientists, biosecurity and public health experts, ethicists, and civil society leaders to seek consensus on this question: Can we agree on ways to manage research that carries pandemic risk as safely, securely and responsibly as possible?”

This event will take place on January 23 at 8 pm (GMT +8:00) via Zoom. RSVP here.

Preparedness in Rural Communities: National and State/Local Perspectives and Plans

From Penn State: “The COVID-19 pandemic and recent hurricanes have thrust the preparedness of rural communities into the national spotlight. At the federal level, the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have recently released national goals and plans for preparedness of rural communities. The overall objective of this virtual, 2-day mini-symposium is to identify opportunities in public health and agricultural preparedness and response in rural communities. The mini-symposium will focus upon national perspectives on Thursday, January 30 and the state/local perspectives on Friday, January 31. Speakers include representatives of the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, the Department of Homeland Security, US Department of Agriculture, the USA Center for Rural Public Health Preparedness, and state/local leaders.”

This event will take place on January 30 and 31, from 11 am to 2 pm ET each day. Learn more and register here.

Rise of the Zombie Bugs: The Surprising Science of Parasitic Mind-Control

Johns Hopkins APL’s colloquium will feature Mindy Weisberger, author of the upcoming book Rise of the Zombie Bugs: The Surprising Science of Parasitic Mind-Control: “Zombies are all around us—insect zombies, that is. In Rise of the Zombie Bugs, Mindy Weisberger explores the eerie yet fascinating phenomenon of real-life zombification in the insect class and among other invertebrates. Zombifying parasites reproduce by rewriting their victims’ neurochemistry, transforming them into the “walking dead”: armies of cicadas, spiders, and other hosts that helplessly follow a zombifier’s commands, living only to serve the parasite’s needs until death’s sweet release (and often beyond).”

Learn more about this January 31 event here.

Cyberbiosecurity Summit

From Johns Hopkins APL and Bio-ISAC: “Advancements in biomanufacturing and biotechnology drive the science we need to thrive, everything from apples to vaccines. The Cyberbiosecurity Summit 2025 convenes leading experts in biotechnology, biosecurity, and cybersecurity to explore the intersection of these fields and discuss the strategies to create a safe, secure future for us all.”
This event will take place February 25-26 in Laurel, MD. Register here and review the call for sessions here (closes 12/12).

Exciting Update: The BWC NIM Database Is Complete!

UNIDIR is glad to announce that the BWC National Implementation Measures Database, developed in partnership with VERTIC, has reached a significant milestone: profiles for all 187 States Parties to the Biological Weapons Convention are now live! This comprehensive online tool provides detailed insights into each country’s national implementation measures under the BWC, supporting transparency, trust, and international cooperation.

All profiles are available in English, and the team is committed to translating them into all official UN languages throughout 2025. Updates to the profiles will also be made regularly to ensure they remain accurate and relevant.

Explore the database at bwcimplementation.org.

Enhancing UK Biosecurity: DASA Launches Microbial Forensics Competition

“On behalf of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory(Dstl), the Defence and Security Accelerator (DASA) is pleased to launch a new Themed Competition called Future-proofing Biosecurity by Strengthening the UK’s Microbial Forensic Capability. The competition is being run in response to the 2023 UK Biological Security Strategy which aims to implement a UK-wide approach to biosecurity that will strengthen deterrence and resilience to a spectrum of biological threats.”

“Dstl is leading the creation of the United Kingdom Microbial Forensics Consortium (UKMFC) which is being developed in support of the Detect Pillar of the Biological Security Strategy. It will comprise a network of biosurveillance laboratories from all four nations of the UK, operating under a One Health doctrine. This competition seeks novel technology options or technical approaches that can directly support the UKMFC initiative.”

Learn more and submit proposals here.

Connecting and Building Collaborations between AI and Synthetic Biology Communities

From AI for SynBio: “Our primary goal for this symposia is to begin to connect and build mutually beneficial collaborations between the AI and the synthetic biology communities.”

“Synthetic biology is the systematic design and engineering of biological systems. Synthetic biology holds the potential for revolutionary advances in medicine, environmental remediation, and many more. For example, some synthetic biologists are trying to develop cellular programs that will identify and kill cancer cells, while others are trying to design plants that will extract harmful pollutants like arsenic from the ground.”

Read more and submit abstracts here.

Biosecurity Game Changers Fellowship

“A new fellowship at the Pandemic Center at the Brown University School of Public Health launches with the announcement of the inaugural class of Biosecurity Game Changers, eight individuals who represent the next generation of leaders responsible for preventing and preparing for the worst case health security challenges.”

“The Brown Pandemic Center is partnering with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, the International Biosecurity and Biosafety Initiative for Science (IBBIS), Pandemic Action Network (PAN), and the Biological Weapons Convention Implementation Support Unit (BWC ISU) to provide an operational base for the fellows, selected for their potential to impact and lead in biosecurity and pandemic preparedness and response. The program is informed by consultation with international and normative entities, including the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization Global Health Emergency Corps.”

“The year-long fellowship kicks off in September with an in-person meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and a policymaking workshop for early-to-mid-career public health champions, including the fellows. During the year, fellows will collaborate on an operational project with either the Pandemic Center or one of the partner organizations focused on a specific aspect of improving biosecurity, biosafety and/or pandemic preparedness and response. Each fellow will also receive a Brown faculty appointment for the duration of their fellowship.”

Learn more here.

Pandora Report 12.13.2024

by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report covers the rush to find the former Assad regime’s hidden chemical weapons, a recent study on H5N1’s potential to become an efficient human pathogen, Nobel laureates’ call for the Senate to block RFK Jr. from becoming HHS Secretary, and more.

Assad Regime Falls

On Sunday, Syrian rebels continued their advance, taking the capital city of Damascus and forcing the country’s long-time leader, President Bashar al-Assad, to flee to Moscow. This ended the country’s 13-year-long civil war and toppled a brutal dictatorship known to have, among other things, used chemical weapons against its own civilians. Now, the country is strapped for cash and being led by opposition forces with limited experience in governance.

Adding to the chaos is the mad dash to locate the former Assad regime’s chemical weapons it hid from inspectors. Among the list of missing weapons are more than 360 tons of mustard gas that the Assad regime admitted to making, but never fully accounted for. There are also five missing tons of precursors for sarin that the Assad regime claimed were “Lost during transportation, due to traffic accidents.”

The OPCW said it is monitoring the situation, reaffirming its commitment to “clarifying gaps, discrepancies, and inconsistencies in Syrian chemical weapons declaration amidst political transition.” Rebels in the south of the country have reached out to the OPCW for support in safely disposing of a cache of CW they found. One US official told the press the US is working with other countries in the Middle East to prevent these weapons from falling into the wrong hands. Meanwhile, Israel reported that it has destroyed CW and other weapons caches while seizing areas along its shared border with the country it claims are part of a demilitarized buffer zone.

Further Reading and Listening:

New Study Finds Single Mutation in Bovine Influenza H5N1 Hemagglutinin Switches Specificity to Human Receptors

A recent study in Science found that a single glutamine to leucine mutation in clade 2.3.4.4b-an H5N1 virus widespread in US dairy cattle that has caused a few mild human cases-at residue 226 of the virus hemagglutinin “was sufficient to enact the change from avian to human specificity.” This means that this virus that currently cannot infect humans very easily could be just one mutation away from being able to do so much more effectively. This finding alone does not mean that this mutation in nature would be guaranteed to make this virus an efficient human pathogen, but it might mean that this version of the virus has a higher zoonotic potential than other H5N1 viruses.

Further Reading:

Investigation Launched into Queensland Lab Incident

An investigation has been launched by Australian authorities into the “major breach” of biosafety protocols that occurred at a state-run laboratory in Queensland in 2021. It was revealed that 323 virus samples-nearly 100 of which were live samples of Hendra virus-were missing. According to Health Minister Tim Nicholls, the incident was only discovered in August of 2023, and the lab is unable to confirm whether the materials were removed or destroyed, though there is no suggestion that they were taken or stolen from the lab.

Top Wuhan Virologist Says WIV Holds No Close Relatives to SARS-CoV-2

Shi Zhengli, the virologist leading coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) when the COVID-19 pandemic began, presented data on dozens of new coronaviruses collected from bats in southern China at a conference in Japan last week. Shi has said repeatedly that SARS-CoV-2 was never seen nor studied in her lab, but some have continued to insist that one of the bat coronaviruses collected by her team was closely related to it. As a result, Shi promised to sequence the genomes of the viruses stored in her freezers and release the resulting data.

The analysis presented at the conference has not been peer reviewed and includes data from the whole genomes of 56 new betacoronaviruses in addition to some partial sequences. All of these viruses were collected between 2004 and 2021. Shi explained at the conference that none of the viruses she has sequenced are the most recent ancestors of SARS-CoV-2 and that “We didn’t find any new sequences which are more closely related to SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2.”

The known viruses that are closest to SARS-CoV-2 were found in bats in Laos and southern China. However, years (or decades) have passed since these viruses split from their common ancestor with SARS-CoV-2. Shi has long since collaborated with EcoHealth Alliance, which previously received US federal funding that was suspended because of inadequate oversight of research activities at the WIV. This collaboration has produced a larger analysis of more than 230 sequences that EcoHealth Alliance’s Peter Daszak says will be submitted for peer review and publication in the coming weeks.

Further Reading: “PLA Looks into China-US Collaboration in Biosecurity Research,” Stephen Chen, SCMP

75+ Nobel Laureates Urge Senate Not to Confirm RFK Jr.

77 winners of the Nobel Prize in Medicine, Chemistry, Physics, and Economics have signed a letter (below) urging the Senate not to confirm President-Elect Trump’s pick to lead HHS-Robert F. Kennedy Jr.. This is a rare example of Nobel laureates coming together against a US Cabinet choice, according to Sir Richard Roberts, winner of the 1993 Nobel Prize in Medicine and a drafter of the letter. The letter criticizes Kennedy’s lack of experience in public health in addition to his widely criticized opinions on topics like drinking water fluoridation and vaccines for measles and polio. The letter reads in part, “In view of his record, placing Mr. Kennedy in charge of DHHS would put the public’s health in jeopardy and undermine America’s global leadership in the health sciences, in both the public and commercial sectors…We strongly urge you to vote against the confirmation of his appointment as Secretary of the DHHS.”

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Further Reading:

“2024 ABSA Conference Summary”

Biodefense MS Student Lena Kropke discusses her experience at the 67th Annual Biosafety and Biosecurity Conference in this Pandora Report event summary, writing in part “Attending this conference not only reaffirmed that biosafety and biosecurity are vital components of international security, but also showcased the incredible dedication of professionals who work tirelessly toward this mission. Moreover, it offered an introduction to an amazing network of biosafety and security professionals.”

Read more about Lena’s time attending the conference in Phoenix here.

“Disincentivizing Bioweapons: Theory and Policy Approaches”

This NTI essay collection is “…designed to encourage the exploration and identification of potential solutions to disincentivize states from developing or using biological weapons,” and aims to “bridge theory and practical policy-relevant approaches to develop new approaches to invigorate international efforts to reduce biological threats.” Its fifth essay, “Two Competing Bioweapons Nonproliferation Policies: Deterrence by Denial and Discussion,” was authored by Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley, Associate Professor at the Schar School.

Mitigating Arboviral Threat and Strengthening Public Health Preparedness: Proceedings of a Workshop

From NASEM: “Arboviruses, or viruses carried by arthropods like mosquitoes or ticks, are responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide each year. As the climate changes globally, the geographic distribution of these diseases, including Zika, dengue, chikungunya, West Nile, and yellow fever, are steadily expanding. The National Academies Forum on Microbial Threats hosted a public workshop in December 2023 to explore avenues of threat reduction from known and emerging arboviral diseases in the context of public health preparedness and capacity building. The workshop featured talks from experts in entomology, public health, ecology, virology, immunology, disease modeling, and urban planning.”

Read this Proceedings of a Workshop for free here.

“The Current Pathogenicity and Potential Risk Assessment of Nipah Virus as Potential Cause of “Disease X”: A Narrative Review”

Mehnaz et al. recently published this article in Health Science Reports: “Background and Aims…The World Health Organization (WHO) recognized the potential for a severe international epidemic and introduced the term “Disease X” to classify pathogens that not yet identified. The Nipah virus (NiV) is highly dangerous due to its zoonotic nature, high mortality rate, and ability to cause severe clinical symptoms in humans. In this review, we gather the latest information on the NiV and its potential to become a significant candidate for Disease X.”

“Methods…We performed a thorough review of articles published in PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar using appropriate MeSH terms and keywords. Studies reported NiV infection were considered for this review.”

“Results…The NiV exhibits different epidemiological patterns in different countries that calls for customized prevention and control strategies. Genetic analysis highlights NiV’s ability to mutate that alters possible treatment options. Transmission typically involves bats as the primary reservoir, with humans becoming infected either through intermediate hosts or food. This shows NiV’s complex nature, including its ability to reach the central nervous system through the olfactory nerve. Promising treatment options, such as monoclonal antibodies, antivirals, and ongoing vaccine research, provide hope. However, the virus’s adaptability, human-to-human transmission, and the lack of specific antiviral therapy raise concerns about its potential to cause a global pandemic. The interconnection between animals, humans, and the environment stresses the need for a One Health approach to tackle emerging infectious disease by NiV.”

“Conclusion…Global collaboration, surveillance, and research investments are imperative for the preparation of future pandemics. The ongoing COVID-19 challenges underscoring the critical need for sustained scientific endeavors, global leadership, and recognition of the prominence of NiV as a candidate for the potential Disease X.”

“Engineering Biology Public Trust Survey Findings”

From the UK’s Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, these findings are the result of a survey on public perceptions of engineering biology in relation to five application areas: health, agriculture and food, low carbon fuels, chemicals and materials, and waste and environment. Key findings from this survey include “The majority of respondents felt comfortable with using new and emerging technologies on a day-to-day basis, but relatively few could explain what engineering biology is,” “There was a strong belief amongst respondents that applications of engineering biology could be useful. Similarly, the majority were comfortable with each of the specific applications and believe that they will be positive for society,” “There was broad agreement that the government is well placed to make decisions about the use of engineering biology but the public should also be involved in decision making,” and more.

“CSR Biodefense Scorecard: Winter 2024 Update”

From the Council on Strategic Risks: “In the fall of 2023, we kicked off our Biodefense Scorecard series to help inform the public on the progress and implementation status of past CSR recommendations on reducing biological risks. This update captures several areas of sustained positive action across pathogen early warning, diplomacy, and biomanufacturing.”

“Ignoring the Real Biowarfare Threat”

David Heslop and Joel Keep discuss the potential implications of recent renovations at Sergiev Posad-6 in this piece from the Lowy Institute, writing in part “While much attention has been paid to nuclear arms, Washington and Moscow must also address biological weapons, which both nations claimed to renounce many years ago. The fate of such programs is not only a matter for Russia and the United States, but for global health security at large.”

“Instrumentalising Biological Weapons-Related Allegations: Russia’s Compliance Politics and the Norms Against Biological Weapons”

Una Jakob recently published this working paper with CBWNet discussing Russia’s use of BWC compliance procedures and their effect on norms against BW. Jakob explains in part of the paper’s executive summary, “Seen in this light, the Russian activities may counterintuitively have contributed to strengthening the norms against biological weapons at the discursive level, as no actor has called them into question and as their validity has been reaffirmed repeatedly in the process, including by Russia itself. This stands in contrast, however, to Russia’s policy which may contest biological weapons norms at the action level. This discrepancy between the discursive and practical level and its implications for norm strength merit further theoretical attention. On a policy level, it will be important to increase transparency, counter disinformation, and strengthen the means to demonstrate, verify and enhance confidence in compliance with the BWC. This would also strengthen the possibilities to address biological weapons-related allegations, including those made in bad faith, and help sustain the norms against biological weapons comprehensively and in the long term.”

“Workshop on S&T Developments with Relevance for the CWC and BWC”

Anna Krin and Gunnar Jeremias edited this CBWNet working paper detailing a workshop hosted in June at Hamburg University focused on challenges and opportunities facing biological and chemical arms control. Jeremias explains in the introduction, “Throughout the workshop, four panels delved into key topics: the general concept and application of scientific and technological advice in arms control in general and particularly in chemical and biological arms control; current developments in science and technology that may necessitate attention; potential frameworks for organizing verification under the CWC and the prospects for institution building for S&T advice and verification within the BWC; and the technologies and governance methods that could be employed to enhance the efficacy of arms control measures…The insights gathered during these discussions aim to contribute to the ongoing discourse on arms control, ensuring that both the BWC and CWC remain vital in a landscape marked by rapid scientific change. This compendium encapsulates the collaborative efforts and perspectives of workshop participants, reflecting a shared commitment to advancing arms control in an increasingly complex world.”

“High-Impact, Low-Probability: NATO-EUROPOL Cooperation in Countering the CBRN Terrorist Threat to Europe”

This JCBRN Defence COE report by Mathias Katsuya “…draws on secondary-source research and insights provided by JCBRN Defence COE personnel as well as Europol’s CBRN-E Team Leader. An initial threat assessment is followed by a review of Europol’s CBRN capabilities, centring on the role of its European Counter-Terrorism Centre and inhouse CBRN-E Team as key nodes in law enforcement information-sharing, capacity-building, and operational coordination. Having identified key doctrinal and capability overlaps with NATO in addition to a stated commitment by Europol’s CBRN-E Team to enhance its civil-military relations, the report outlines a three-pillar approach to deepening connections between NATO and Europol: short-term measures to foster staff-level contacts in both organisations, a formalised relationship between Europol’s CBRN-E Team and NATO’s JCBRN Defence COE, and deeper institutional linkages to effectively confront current and emerging CBRN threats.”

“Hybrid Threats in the CBRN Environment: Challenges and Implications”

This JCBRN Defence COE paper by Paulina Frederike Gogacz discusses hybrid CBRN threats and their use by actors like Russia. Gogacz explains in the paper’s summary that “An analysis of the six strategic enablers outlined in NATO’s Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Defence Policy (2022) indicates important steps to ameliorate current defences and prepare NATO and its member states for future hybrid CBRN threats, thereby increasing overall resilience. They include important aspects: robust intelligence-sharing mechanisms to ensure timely and accurate threat information; comprehensive exercises to simulate and prepare for various CBRN scenarios; strong partnerships both within the alliance and with external entities to foster cooperation and resource sharing; effective strategic communication to manage information and public perception; collaborative scientific research to advance technological capabilities and countermeasures; and the resilience of medical infrastructure to ensure a rapid and effective response to CBRN incidents. These steps collectively aim to bolster NATO’s preparedness and adaptability in the face of evolving hybrid CBRN threats.”

“Securing a Strategic Advantage in Biosecurity for NATO”

Max Breet and Lauren Ross recently authored this commentary for RUSI, writing in their summary “NATO should recognise the importance of biosecurity by understanding it as a new domain. This would allow the Alliance to more effectively leverage existing structures to defend itself against hybrid biological threats.”

“The Rise of Mpox in a Post-Smallpox World”

McQuiston et al. recently published this article in Emerging Infectious Diseases: “Reports of mpox are rising in Africa where the disease is endemic and in new countries where the disease has not been previously seen. The 2022 global outbreak of clade II mpox and an ongoing outbreak of the more lethal clade I mpox highlight the pandemic potential for monkeypox virus. Waning population immunity after the cessation of routine immunization for smallpox plays a key role in the changing epidemiologic patterns of mpox. Sustained human-to-human transmission of mpox is occurring widely in the context of insufficient population immunity, fueling genetic mutations that affect the accuracy of some diagnostic tests and that could lead to changing virulence. Additional research should address complex challenges for control of mpox, including improved diagnostics and medical countermeasures. The availability of vaccines should be expanded not only for outbreak response but also for broader routine use for persons in mpox-endemic countries.”

“Confronting Risks of Mirror Life”

Adamala et al. recently published this Science Policy Forum piece, writing in part, “All known life is homochiral. DNA and RNA are made from “right-handed” nucleotides, and proteins are made from “left-handed” amino acids. Driven by curiosity and plausible applications, some researchers had begun work toward creating lifeforms composed entirely of mirror-image biological molecules. Such mirror organisms would constitute a radical departure from known life, and their creation warrants careful consideration. The capability to create mirror life is likely at least a decade away and would require large investments and major technical advances; we thus have an opportunity to consider and preempt risks before they are realized. Here, we draw on an in-depth analysis of current technical barriers, how they might be eroded by technological progress, and what we deem to be unprecedented and largely overlooked risks (1). We call for broader discussion among the global research community, policy-makers, research funders, industry, civil society, and the public to chart an appropriate path forward.”

Bonus: Read Carl Zimmer’s discussion of this warning in The New York Times here.

NEW: OneLab Network Webinar

“Clinical laboratories must be alert for unusual and potentially infectious agents and immediately notify their Laboratory Response Network (LRN) reference laboratory if routine diagnostic testing results in the potential identification of rare and unusual infectious agents that may be used in a bioterrorist attack or other bio-agent incident. This webinar will describe the LRN and highlight the clinical laboratory’s role and responsibilities in initiating contact with their LRN. Join us as we share an example of a response, new tools, and valuable resources to aid in the clinical laboratory’s response.”

This event will take place on December 17 at 12 pm ET. Register for this event here.

NEW: Understanding the Introduction of Pathogens into Humans- Preventing Patient Zero: A Workshop

“The past few decades have seen the emergence of several diseases with drastic public health and economic consequences. Understanding routes of pathogen emergence and transmission is critical to preventing and mitigating disease spillover and amplification. The National Academies Forum on Microbial Threats will host a hybrid public workshop to address gaps in understanding of disease emergence, with a focus on human-animal interaction and laboratory biosafety. The workshop will explore how applications of existing policy structures, emerging technologies, and actionable research can improve biosecurity measures and prevention of future disease emergence.”

This event will take place on January 15 and 16. Learn more and register here.

NEW: Rise of the Zombie Bugs: The Surprising Science of Parasitic Mind-Control

Johns Hopkins APL’s colloquium will feature Mindy Weisberger, author of the upcoming book Rise of the Zombie Bugs: The Surprising Science of Parasitic Mind-Control: “Zombies are all around us—insect zombies, that is. In Rise of the Zombie Bugs, Mindy Weisberger explores the eerie yet fascinating phenomenon of real-life zombification in the insect class and among other invertebrates. Zombifying parasites reproduce by rewriting their victims’ neurochemistry, transforming them into the “walking dead”: armies of cicadas, spiders, and other hosts that helplessly follow a zombifier’s commands, living only to serve the parasite’s needs until death’s sweet release (and often beyond).”

Learn more about this January 31 event here.

How to Avoid Human-Made Pandemics

From the Asia Centre for Health Security: “Studying viruses that could potentially cause outbreaks is one of the most effective ways to reduce the risk of pandemics. However, this type of research—especially when it involves collecting samples from the field and manipulating pathogens—can unintentionally lead to a pandemic if not managed carefully. Dr Lentzos will discuss her findings from the Pathogen Project, which brought together an international taskforce of scientists, biosecurity and public health experts, ethicists, and civil society leaders to seek consensus on this question: Can we agree on ways to manage research that carries pandemic risk as safely, securely and responsibly as possible?”

This event will take place on January 23 at 8 pm (GMT +8:00) via Zoom. RSVP here.

Preparedness in Rural Communities: National and State/Local Perspectives and Plans

From Penn State: “The COVID-19 pandemic and recent hurricanes have thrust the preparedness of rural communities into the national spotlight. At the federal level, the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have recently released national goals and plans for preparedness of rural communities. The overall objective of this virtual, 2-day mini-symposium is to identify opportunities in public health and agricultural preparedness and response in rural communities. The mini-symposium will focus upon national perspectives on Thursday, January 30 and the state/local perspectives on Friday, January 31. Speakers include representatives of the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, the Department of Homeland Security, US Department of Agriculture, the USA Center for Rural Public Health Preparedness, and state/local leaders.”

This event will take place on January 30 and 31, from 11 am to 2 pm ET each day. Learn more and register here.

Cyberbiosecurity Summit

From Johns Hopkins APL and Bio-ISAC: “Advancements in biomanufacturing and biotechnology drive the science we need to thrive, everything from apples to vaccines. The Cyberbiosecurity Summit 2025 convenes leading experts in biotechnology, biosecurity, and cybersecurity to explore the intersection of these fields and discuss the strategies to create a safe, secure future for us all.”
This event will take place February 25-26 in Laurel, MD. Register here and review the call for sessions here (closes 12/12).

NEW: The Independent Panel Solicits Views and Insights on Pandemic Prevention, and Response Efforts

“The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, co-chaired by HE Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and RH Helen Clark, welcomes you to share your insights and expertise on the status of international and regional pandemic-related reform processes and initiatives, and how progress can be continued and accelerated in the months and years ahead.”

Learn more about this survey and submit by December 20 here.

Pandora Report 12.6.2024

by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report covers news from the Biodefense Graduate Program, the winners of the 2024 OPCW-The Hague Award, reports of a mysterious illness in the DRC, and much more.

Biodefense Doctoral Student Selected for Next Generation Leader Program

First-year Biodefense PhD student Katie Dammer was recently selected for the Next Generation Leaders program as part of the Spirit of Asilomar conference that will be held in February 2025. “The Spirit of Asilomar and the Future of Biotechnology” summit will occur on the 50th anniversary of the 1975 international meeting on recombinant DNA, where scientists discussed the hazards and benefits of emerging biotechnology and voluntarily agreed to set new standards for the regulation of biohazards. The 2025 iteration of this summit will focus on artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, pathogen research, and other related topics. Dammer currently is a Biosecurity Fellow at the Horizon Institute for Public Service working as the Special Assistant for Global Health Security & Biodefense at the National Security Council.

2024 OPCW-The Hague Award Recipients Announced

Last month, OPCW Director-General Amb. Fernando Arias and The Hague Mayor Jan van Zanen announced the winners of this year’s OPCW-The Hague award: Alegeria’s National Institute of Criminalistics and Criminology of the National Gendarmerie (NICC/NG) and the Indian Chemical Council (ICC). NICC/NG is “a forensic science institute focused on advancing crime-fighting capabilities by integrating scientific methods into judicial and criminal processes.” The ICC “is a chemical industry body recognized for its role in promoting chemical safety, compliance with the Convention, and enhancing industry-wide security practices in India.” Read more about the recipients and this year’s award selection here.

DRC Reports Outbreak of Unknown Flu-Like Illness

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Africa CDC, and WHO are investigating an outbreak of an unknown, influenza-like disease in Kwango province that has infected at least 376 people and killed at least 67 (though some outlets report 143 deaths) since late October. Africa CDC reports that symptoms include fever, headache, cough, difficulties breathing, and anemia. Children under five are the most affected group, accounting for more than half of all cases and the majority of deaths. The outbreak started in the Panzi Health Zone, a remote part of the province. Officials report that they did not learn of the outbreak until six weeks after it began. In better news, the WHO has confirmed that the DRC’s mpox outbreak appears to be “plateauing”.

Raw Milk Recalled in California Following Bird Flu Detection

In a predictable turn of events, a farm in California has made a voluntary recall of its products and halted production after samples of its products tested positive for avian influenza. The recall has expanded since the initial recall of two lots of product on November 21. The California Department of Food and Agriculture has quarantined the farm and suspended the distribution of raw milk, cream, kefir, butter, and cheese products produced on or after November 27. The farm in question, Raw Farm of Fresno, has gained popularity with fans of social media “health influencers” and HHS Secretary nominee RFK Jr.. It frequently sells its products in natural supermarket chains like Sprouts Farmers Market.

The brand fell under FDA and CDC scrutiny earlier this year amid E. coli concerns, though the company insists it was the victim of “severe bias” from the agencies. Mark McAfee, CEO of Raw Farm, is insisting now that the actions taken by the state are politically-driven, despite samples of his company’s products testing positive for the virus. McAfee appears to have been encouraged by RFK Jr. to apply for a position at the FDA as the “FDA advisor on raw milk policy and standards development.”

Further Reading:

House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic Releases Final Report

The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic recently published its final report, “AFTER ACTION REVIEW OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: The Lessons Learned and a Path Forward”. The more than 500-page document covers a variety of topics, including vaccines, use of pandemic relief funds, and public health guidance. The report begins with the claim that SARS-CoV-2 “likely emerged because of a laboratory or research related accident,” despite the Intelligence Community remaining split on the consensus and many in the scientific community disagreeing. The report is also critical of mitigation efforts like face masking and social distancing, though it praises travel restrictions. The report also focuses its attention heavily on the EcoHealth Alliance.

The Select Subcommittee’s minority released its own final report. A spokesperson for the minority said in a statement, “Select Subcommittee Republicans’ final report reflects two years wasted on political stunts instead of preventing and preparing for the next pandemic…Instead of coming together with Democrats to get ahead of future viruses or fortify America’s public health infrastructure and workforce, Select Subcommittee Republicans prioritized extreme probes that vilified our nation’s scientists and public health officials in an effort to whitewash former President Trump’s disastrous COVID-19 response.”

The minority report blasts the majority’s criticism and targeting of former NIAID Director Anthony Fauci as “baseless and frivolous” and explains that “Today, a zoonotic origin and lab accident are both plausible, as is a ‘hybrid’ scenario reflecting a mixture of the two…It was repeatedly explained to the Select Subcommittee that all prior epidemics and pandemics, as well as almost all prior outbreaks, have zoonotic origins. At the same time, a lab origin for SARS-CoV-2 also remains plausible.”

Further Reading: “Sick Animals Suggest COVID Pandemic Started in Wuhan Market,” Smriti Mallapaty, Nature

Trump Continues to Make Controversial Administration Selections

Trump Picks Jay Bhattacharya to Lead NIH

Late last month, President-Elect Trump announced Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford-trained physician and economist, as his pick to lead the NIH. Bhattacharya gained national attention for co-authoring the October 2020 letter known as the Great Barrington Declaration, which called for the rollback of pandemic-related shutdowns, drawing rebuke from then NIH director Francis S. Collins. Bhattacharya also was among several academics who met with Trump in August of 2020, claiming that the pandemic was not as severe as public health officials had warned. The letter gained broader criticism for its focus on herd immunity, especially as COVID-19 vaccines were not available at that point, so relying on herd immunity would lead to even more unnecessary illnesses and deaths.

Trump Picks Jim O’Neill for HHS Deputy Secretary

Trump also announced in late November that he will select Jim O’Neill, a Silicon Valley investor and former federal health official, as his selection to be Deputy Secretary at HHS. O’Neill joined HHS in 2002, holding several roles throughout his tenure, including serving as a top aide to the then-deputy secretary of the department. He then moved on to Silicon Valley, becoming a close ally of Peter Thiel, a close adviser to Trump during his first term who has also long championed VP-Elect JD Vance.

Trump Announces Dave Weldon as CDC Director Pick

In an unforeseen move, Trump picked former Congressman Dave Weldon as his nominee to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Weldon has been out of politics for the last fifteen years, running a private medical practice in Florida. During his tenure in Congress, he made controversial statements about the safety of MMR and and HPV vaccines. His views have often aligned with those of RFK Jr., whom he has been friends with for more than two decades. Weldon has said of his time in Congress that he worked with Kennedy “to get the mercury out of the childhood vaccines.”

Further Reading:

White Helmets Urge International Community to Take Action to Protect Syrian Civilians from Chemical Warfare

The Director of the White Helmets, Raed Al-Saleh, warned recently that Syria’s authoritarian president, Bashar Al-Assad, could very soon use CW against civilians in an effort to stop rebels advancing in the northwest of the country. In a statement, Al-Saleh said “”For six days now, as the map of military control has changed, brutal attacks launched by the Syrian regime, Russia, and Iranian cross-border militias on Syrians have escalated especially in areas outside their control in northwest Syria…I am gravely concerned about the lives of every Syrian because of the real threat of chemical attacks.”

“Strategic Report on Research and Development in Biotechnology for Defense Innovation”

From NASEM: “At the request of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology, Strategic Report on Research and Development in Biotechnology for Defense Innovation provides an overview of the current landscape of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML)-enabled biotechnology, the opportunities it presents, and the challenges it poses. This report offers a strategic vision for connecting scientists and technologists to build on, leverage, and tailor advances at the intersection of AI/ML, automated experimentation, and biotechnology to drive innovation in defense-related biotechnologies. Strategic Report on Research and Development in Biotechnology for Defense Innovation makes recommendations to address long-standing challenges that have limited research, development, prototyping, testing and evaluation, and eventual use of biotechnologies. Addressing these challenges will help to advance U.S. national security and defense by improving the performance of existing capabilities, enabling the creation of domestic supply chains of valuable products, reducing reliance on processes and chemicals that are harmful to the environment, and/or adding new capabilities not currently possible with established technologies.”

“Anticipating Biological Risk: A Toolkit for Strategic Biosecurity Policy”

Stephen Batalis for CSET: “Artificial intelligence (AI) tools pose exciting possibilities to advance scientific, biomedical, and public health research. At the same time, these tools have raised concerns about their potential to contribute to biological threats, like those from pathogens and toxins. This report describes pathways that result in biological harm, with or without AI, and a range of governance tools and mitigation measures to address them.”

“Strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention”

Jez Littlewood and Filippa Lentzos recently published this piece with the Arms Control Association discussing the BWC working group and its efforts to improve the BWC. They write in part, “Substantial progress has been made in some areas, but beneath the surface is a broader conflict about the shape of arms control agreements generally. This raises a question about whether strengthening the BWC needs to follow the traditional model of legally binding multilateral agreements with declarations, inspections, investigations, and an international organization where consensus rules or whether states-parties can agree to a new model that allows states to opt in to the mechanisms with which they agree and opt out of any processes or new commitments they are unable to support.”

“BWC at 50: Taking Bold Steps to Secure the Future”

Gabrielle Essix recently authored this rundown on the BWC’s successes, shortcomings, and future for NTI| bio. She writes in part, “As we look ahead to the future of the BWC, the role of civil society will become increasingly critical. Organizations like NTI provide a bridge between governments, scientists, and the public, ensuring that biosecurity remains a global priority. By advocating for stronger international norms and pushing for innovative solutions to new challenges, NTI can help make the BWC an effective tool in the fight against the development and use of biological weapons.”

“Possible Models of BWC Verification”

James Revill authored this brief for UNIDIR: “This briefing serves as a primer for consideration of possible models of verification. Past discussions of verification in the Biological Weapons Conference (BWC) have largely focused on the development of a more traditional disarmament verification regime, akin to the model established in the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and envisaged in the BWC Protocol Negotiations. Such a model is often considered the standard model for verification and could provide greater confidence in compliance with the BWC.”

“However, the traditional model of verification is not the only model available to BWC States Parties. Depending on the function(s) and focus of any verification mechanism, other options could be developed for BWC verification that might more effectively address the concerns of BWC States Parties and potentially reduce costs of verification while still increasing confidence in compliance.”

BioWeapons Prevention Project: “The Closure of the Fourth Sessions Preparations for the Fifth”

From BWPP: “The Working Group (WG) on the strengthening of the 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC/BTWC), will convene for its Fifth Session on 2 December having finished the Fourth Session on 23 August. The topics for discussion in the WG were decided at Ninth BWC Review Conference, held in 2022. The two-week Fifth Session will be followed by the annual Meeting of States Parties (MSP) which is scheduled for 16-18 December…This report focuses on some overarching issues. Individual topics up for discussion during the Fifth Session have been examined in earlier reports in this series, and in particular in the ‘setting the scene’ reports.”

Read more here.

“Biocrimes: Safeguarding Clinical and Public Health Microbiology Labs Against Insider Threats”

Casey Shroeder authored this piece for Lab Manager, writing in part “Within clinical and public health microbiology laboratories where scientists work to diagnose infections and/or protect public health, the potential for biocrimes and insider threats is a serious risk that is often overlooked. These laboratories, which handle not only routine human pathogens but also antimicrobial resistant strains, emerging pathogens, and potential biothreat pathogens, must remain vigilant against those who might exploit their access for malicious purposes.”

“Bacteriologic and Genomic Investigation of Bacillus anthracis Isolated from World War II Site, China”

Wu et al. recently published this article in Emerging Infectious Diseases: “Records suggest Bacillus anthracis was used in biowarfare during World War II, but evidence remains limited. We isolated B. anthracis from soil at the remains of a World War II–era laboratory in China. Phenotypic and genomic analyses confirmed the finding, highlighting the value of microbial forensics in biothreat investigation.”

“Modern Warfare is Breeding Deadly Superbugs. Why?”

Francesca Mari recently published this piece in The New York Times Magazine, explaining in part “By 2050, The Lancet predicts that antimicrobial resistance will kill 8.22 million people per year, more than the number currently killed by cancer. (For context, Covid claimed an estimated three million lives during all of 2020.) And a growing body of research suggests that the 21st-century way of warfare has become a major driver of that spread. Nations of the Middle East, like Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan, now suffer from particularly high rates of multidrug-resistant pathogens, and some of the world’s most fearsome superbugs have incubated in the region — Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, E. coli, MRSA and perhaps most notably A. baumannii, a strain of Acinetobacter that traveled home with U.S. soldiers, where it became nicknamed “Iraqibacter.”’

“Global Report on Infection Prevention and Control 2024”

From WHO: “Health care-associated infections (HAIs) affect patients and health systems every day, causing immense suffering, driving higher health-care costs and hampering efforts to achieve high-quality care for all. HAIs are often difficult to treat, are the major driver of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and cause premature deaths and disability. The COVID-19 pandemic, as well as outbreaks of Ebola, Marburg and mpox are the most dramatic demonstrations of how pathogens can spread rapidly and be amplified in health care settings. But HAIs are a daily threat in every hospital and clinic, not only during epidemics and pandemics. Lack of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) in health care settings not only affects the application of infection prevention and control (IPC) best practices but also equity and dignity among both those providing and receiving care. However, there is strong evidence that a large proportion of these infections could be prevented with IPC measures and basic WASH services, with a high return on investment. This second global report on IPC provides updated evidence on the harm caused to patients and health workers by HAIs and AMR, and presents an updated global analysis of the implementation of IPC programmes at the national and health care facility levels across all WHO regions. “

Bloomberg FOIA Files: Kremlin Targeting Putin’s Political Adversaries, Has Ability to Assassinate Targets with Chemical and Biological Weapons

In this edition of Bloomberg News’ FOIA Files, Jason Leopold discusses a recently-released memo from ODNI discussing targeting killings of Vladimir Putin’s political adversaries, and the means by which the Russian state is able to accomplish this. In the memo, intelligence officials assessed that “Russia has the capability to assassinate individuals using chemical and biological agents,” and that they have the means to track dissidents and defectors. The memo also explains that “The development of chemical or biological agents with lower risk of attribution might tempt the Kremlin to consider assassinating individuals,” in addition to discussing the death of Russian businessman Alexander Perepilichnyy, who was “reportedly assassinated with a biological toxin in the UK in 2012 shortly before he was scheduled to testify about a Kremlin tax fraud network.”

“Reviving Chemical Weapons Accountability in a Multipolar World”

The Center for Strategic and Strategic & International Studies published this commentary by Natasha Hall and Doreen Horschig ahead of the 29th Session of the Conference of States Parties of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. In it, they discuss the strain the CWC has faced in the last decade and how its strength might be restored. They write in part, “Next week’s conference presents an opportunity to revitalize efforts toward accountability and global cooperation. The United States, in particular, is in a position to reverse course on the dangerous erosion of the chemical weapons norm and maintain the integrity of the CWC. But to do so, it will need to engage friend and foe alike.”

“The Islamic Republic’s Work on Pharmaceutical Based Agents”

This report was authored by Mohammadreza Giveh and the Good ISIS Team for the Institute for Science and International Security. “This report discusses multiple Iranian security complexes that have been preparing production of fentanyl and medetomidine based incapacitating and lethal agents. These complexes have been working on pillars of producing those weapons: large-scale cost-efficient synthesis of the compounds with maximum potency, evaluating a stable chemical mixture based on those agents that can be aerosolized using a propellant, and developing the delivery of the agents through grenades, bullets, or drones.”

“Chemical Weapons Disinformation in Ukraine”

From GP WMD Counter Disinfo, this series includes three briefs: “Understanding Russia’s Chemical Weapons Allegations in Ukraine,” “Selected Examples of CW Allegations and Related Disinformation Campaigns from the Russian Federation,” and “Strategy and Impacts of CW Disinformation”.

“Chemical Weapons Use in Ukraine Testa Global Norms to Breaking Point”

Lennie Phillips OBE and Gareth Williams discuss Russia’s use of CW in Ukraine and how it affects the CWC and OPCW in this RUSI piece, writing in part “A riot control agent found in samples collected from the confrontation lines in Ukraine by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons implicates Russia in yet another breach of the Chemical Weapons Convention. But what steps can states parties to the convention take next?”

“Russia Fails to Make OPCW Executive Council for Second Year Running”

Patrick Norén discusses Russia’s failure to be elected to the OPCW’s Executive Council for the second year in a row in this piece for CBNW.

“How Might Large Language Models Aid Actors in Reaching the Competency Threshold Required to Carry Out a Chemical Attack?”

Stendall et al. recently published this article in The Nonproliferation Review: “Artificial intelligence is a rapidly growing field, increasingly driving innovation in the sciences. This is a double-edged sword, with the benefits of scientific discovery tempered by potential opportunities for weaponization and misuse. Specifically, the implications for chemical security and chemical weapons are becoming increasingly clear. This article analyzes how large language models (LLMs)—particularly chatbots and chemical LLM assistants—might enable actors to better reach the competency threshold for a chemical attack, via enhanced methods for the identification, production, and use of chemical weapons. This would be particularly relevant for those at the lower end of the capability spectrum, such as terrorist groups and rogue individuals. An important historical context is provided throughout the article, with chemical attacks of the past illuminating the dangerous consequences of an easier-to-achieve competency threshold. A counterargument is also provided, analyzing the factors that might still limit malicious actors, as well as a description of how LLMs might be used to combat chemical terrorism. The article then concludes with a short list of key policy and governance suggestions for mitigating the risks.”

Read or listen to CNS’ interview with Stendall on this article here.

“Chemical Terrorism: Assessment of U.S. Strategies in the Era of Great Power Competition”

From NASEM: “Domestic and foreign violent extremist organizations, or terrorist groups, have caused a greater amount of harm with chemical agents than with biological or radiological weapons. The United States capacity and capability to identify, prevent, counter, and respond adequately to chemical threats is established by the strategies, policies, and laws enacted across multiple levels of government. While the number of chemical terrorism incidents has risen and fallen over time, there is no empirical or analytical indication that the threat is disappearing. This report comes at a time when the nation’s highest-level strategies have shifted from focusing primarily on violent extremist organizations to focusing more on Great Power Competition. This shift in relative perceived threat and consequent prioritization will impact efforts against chemical terrorism, and in turn, affect funding priorities. Revised risk assessments are needed to reprioritize risks guided by new strategies, so that strategy-aligned budgets can be created. The report recommends weapons of mass destruction budgets be aligned with evolving priorities and incentivize activities that transition promising research to operations.”

“Nuclear Terrorism: Assessment of U.S. Strategies to Prevent, Counter, and Respond to Weapons of Mass Destruction”

From NASEM: “For nearly eight decades, the world has been navigating the dangers of the nuclear age. Despite Cold War tensions and the rise of global terrorism, nuclear weapons have not been used in conflict since Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Efforts such as strategic deterrence, arms control and non-proliferation agreements, and the U.S.-led global counterterrorism have helped to keep nuclear incidents at bay. However, the nation’s success to date in countering nuclear terrorism does not come with a guarantee, success often carries the risk that other challenges will siphon away attention and resources and can lead to the perception that the threat no longer exists.”

“This report found that U.S. efforts to counter nuclear or radiological terrorism are not keeping pace with the evolving threat landscape. The U.S. government should maintain a strategic focus and effort on combatting terrorism across the national security community in coordination with international partners, State, Local, Tribal and Territorial authorities, the National Laboratories, universities and colleges, and civil society. Developing and sustaining adequate nuclear incident response and recovery capabilities at the local and state levels will likely require significant new investments in resources and empowerment of local response from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy, and National Institutes of Health.”

“Ecological Threat Report”

The Institute for Economics & Peace recently released the fifth edition of its Ecological Threat Report, ” which analyses ecological threats in 207 independent states and territories. The report covers 3,518 sub-national areas which account for 99.99 per cent of the world’s population. The ETR assesses threats relating to food insecurity, water risk, natural disasters, and demographic pressure…The research takes a multi-faceted approach by analysing ecological threats at the national, subnational, and city level, while also assessing the threats against societal resilience and levels of peace. Comparing ecological threats against societal resilience enables IEP to identify the global regions, countries, and subnational areas most at risk of an ecological disaster, both now and into the future.”

“Healthcare Cybersecurity: HHS Continues to Have Challenges as Lead Agency”

This snapshot from the Government Accountability Office discusses previous GAO findings about HHS’ performance in healthcare cybersecurity, explaining that HHS has yet to implement all of GAO’s recommendations to address its challenges in this area. It concludes that “Until HHS implements our prior recommendations related to improving cybersecurity, the department risks not being able to effectively carry out its lead agency responsibilities, resulting in potential adverse impact on healthcare providers and patient care.”

“Lebanon: A Conflict Particularly Destructive to Health Care”

The WHO recently released this news post explaining that more health workers and patients have been killed proportionally in Lebanon than in Ukraine and Gaza, with 47% of attacks on health care in the country proving fatal as of November 21-a higher percentage than in any active conflict today globally. Read more here.

What We’re Listening To 🎧

Grow Everything Biotech Podcast, 103. DNA of Defense: Alexander Titus on How NSCEB is Advancing Biotech for National Security Challenges

“Karl and Erum bring on Dr. Alexander Titus, a commissioner on the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology, to explore the exciting and challenging intersections of biotechnology and policy. Alexander shares his experiences from his unique journey across academia, government, and industry, diving into the role of biosecurity, the potential of synthetic biology, and the emerging convergence of tech and bio. They discuss ambitious projects like de-extincting the woolly mammoth, advances in biodefense, and the impacts of AI on biotech innovation. It’s a conversation that sheds light on how cutting-edge biotech could shape the future and the necessary balance between innovation and ethical responsibility.”

Listen here.

NEW: How to Avoid Human-Made Pandemics

From the Asia Centre for Health Security: “Studying viruses that could potentially cause outbreaks is one of the most effective ways to reduce the risk of pandemics. However, this type of research—especially when it involves collecting samples from the field and manipulating pathogens—can unintentionally lead to a pandemic if not managed carefully. Dr Lentzos will discuss her findings from the Pathogen Project, which brought together an international taskforce of scientists, biosecurity and public health experts, ethicists, and civil society leaders to seek consensus on this question: Can we agree on ways to manage research that carries pandemic risk as safely, securely and responsibly as possible?”

This event will take place on January 23 at 8 pm (GMT +8:00) via Zoom. RSVP here.

NEW: Preparedness in Rural Communities: National and State/Local Perspectives and Plans

From Penn State: “The COVID-19 pandemic and recent hurricanes have thrust the preparedness of rural communities into the national spotlight. At the federal level, the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have recently released national goals and plans for preparedness of rural communities. The overall objective of this virtual, 2-day mini-symposium is to identify opportunities in public health and agricultural preparedness and response in rural communities. The mini-symposium will focus upon national perspectives on Thursday, January 30 and the state/local perspectives on Friday, January 31. Speakers include representatives of the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, the Department of Homeland Security, US Department of Agriculture, the USA Center for Rural Public Health Preparedness, and state/local leaders.”

This event will take place on January 30 and 31, from 11 am to 2 pm ET each day. Learn more and register here.

Enhancing the Resilience of Healthcare and Public Health Critical Infrastructure: A Workshop

From NASEM: “Healthcare and public health infrastructure, technology, and operations are rapidly changing and are increasingly interdependent and interconnected. Threats to the nation’s critical social and physical infrastructure systems are also rapidly evolving and highly complex—posing potentially new or growing risks of disruption and challenging the assumptions used to design and protect these systems.”

“The National Academies Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Disasters and Emergencies will host a hybrid public workshop to explore strategies, policies, and innovative actions to improve the resilience of healthcare and public health (HPH) critical infrastructure to impacts from disasters and other emergencies.”

This event will take place in DC on December 9 and 10. Register here.

A New Paradigm for Threat Agnostic Biodetection: Biological Intelligence (BIOINT)

From PNNL: “Please join us in welcoming Swati Sureka, Strategy and Policy Analyst at Arctic Slope Regional Corporation (ASRC) Federal, where she supports the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Readiness Policy and Oversight. Her talk, titled “A New Paradigm for Threat Agnostic Biodetection: Biological Intelligence (BIOINT),” will take place on Tuesday, December 10th, at noon PT.”

Learn more and RSVP here.

Resilience in the Face of Global Risks

From CSR: “The Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) cordially invites you to our first annual CSR symposium, Resilience in the Face of Global Risks, scheduled for Tuesday, December 10, 2024. This is the first event bringing together all three of CSR’s institutions—the Center for Climate & Security, the Converging Risks Lab, and the Janne E. Nolan Center on Strategic Weapons—to engage with leaders across our mission sets.”

“The United States and its allies face a complex global security landscape where systemic risks like climate and ecological crisis, nuclear proliferation, and biological threats are blending with war, geopolitical competition, and human insecurity in new and profound ways. While there has been tremendous leadership—and meaningful progress—across these overlapping risk areas, they require persistent innovation in community building to meet the modern risk landscape.”

“The symposium will dive into the progress our communities have made—and how our passionate communities can better work together to help shape the future.”

“In addition to a keynote address, guests will hear from panels, take part in breakout sessions showcasing important issues and new ideas, plus engage with thought leaders between sessions. It will be a widely attended gathering, free to attendees.”

“As we enter a new year with an exceptionally dynamic security environment, we hope CSR’s December event will inspire and build a stronger community across professionals dedicated to anticipating and addressing the world’s greatest risks. We appreciate your consideration and hope you will be able to join us on the 10th of December.”

RSVP here.

Cyberbiosecurity Summit

From Johns Hopkins APL and Bio-ISAC: “Advancements in biomanufacturing and biotechnology drive the science we need to thrive, everything from apples to vaccines. The Cyberbiosecurity Summit 2025 convenes leading experts in biotechnology, biosecurity, and cybersecurity to explore the intersection of these fields and discuss the strategies to create a safe, secure future for us all.”
This event will take place February 25-26 in Laurel, MD. Register here and review the call for sessions here (closes 12/12).

NEW: Call for Experts, Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats

“The National Academies is seeking suggestions for experts to be considered for the membership rotation or other engagement with the Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats. The group will help inform the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) on critical science and policy issues related to emerging infectious diseases and other health threats.”

“Since March 2020, the standing committee has consistently generated real-time policy recommendations and produced an unprecedented amount of timely, evidence-based guidance in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and other emerging public health threats. Looking ahead, the standing committee will continue to ensure that ASPR and decision-makers have access to the latest high-quality, evidence-based insights to inform medical and public health preparedness for, response to, and recovery from disasters and public health emergencies.”

“Approximately 12-15 volunteer experts are needed to serve on the standing committee of approximately 25 members.”

Learn more and submit nominations by December 13 here.

Pandora Report 11.22.2024

by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s edition of the Pandora Report includes updates from the Biodefense Graduate Program, information on the upcoming BWC Working Group meeting, updates on mpox and avian influenza in California, and much more.

Mazanec Moving Up at ASPR

Brian Mazanec, Biodefense PhD ’14 and adjunct professor at the Schar School, has started a new role as Deputy Assistant Secretary and Director of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Coordination Operations and Response Element (H-CORE) within the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR). H-CORE was born out of Operation Warp Speed– the COVID-19 medical countermeasures response led by HHS and the Department of Defense which transitioned to ASPR in 2021. H-CORE’s mission today is to lead and enable agile, data-driven operational coordination, logistics readiness, and scalable response for public health emergencies and disasters, including infectious disease outbreaks and cyber attacks. H-CORE also now includes the Office of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection, Secretary’s Operation Center, and Office of Data, Analytics, and Information Advantage.

Pandora Report Hosting the Gryphon Scientific Biosecurity Collection

The Pandora Report is now hosting a collection of papers published by Gryphon Scientific. This page serves as a repository for a selection of reports and publications from Gryphon Scientific, a research and policy consultancy that performed cutting-edge work in biosafety, biosecurity, and all-hazards preparedness and response. Over the past two decades, Gryphon supported senior decision makers within government and the commercial sector in evaluating emerging technologies and understanding how to enable their rapid development while safeguarding against their associated risks. Notably, Gryphon was commissioned by the NIH in 2016 to conduct an extensive risk-benefit analysis of gain-of-function research with potential pandemic pathogens. Gryphon was also at the forefront of AI safety, with a particular focus on the intersection of AI and biological and chemical threats. Gryphon is now continuing and expanding its work as part of Deloitte Consulting LLP. 

Transforming Defense with Biotechnology: Insights From DARPA’s Dr. Michael Koeris

Biotechnology is playing an increasingly pivotal role in strengthening national defense, with the potential to enhance military capabilities and address emerging security challenges. On November 13, the Biodefense Graduate Program at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University hosted a lecture by Dr. Michael Koeris, the recently appointed director of DARPA’s Biological Technologies Office (BTO). Dr. Koeris’ talk offered attendees a look into the cutting-edge research being done at BTO to revolutionize U.S. military capabilities through biotechnology. With a focus on warfighter readiness and operational biotechnology, Dr. Koeris shared how DARPA is developing next-generation solutions to enhance military personnel’s health and performance in increasingly complex environments. The discussion provided a unique opportunity to delve into the innovative technologies that DARPA is developing, from optimizing warfighter stamina in their AWARE (Alert Warfighter Enablement) program to their GOLDEVAC (Golden Hour Extended Evacuation) program, which is designed to provide wounded warfighters with expert-level care in austere environments when medical evacuation is delayed.

Dr. Michael Koeris

DARPA, created after the Sputnik crisis in 1957, was designed to prevent technological surprise by pushing the United States to the forefront of military innovation. DARPA focuses on strategic, high-yield programs that align with the latest technological realities, especially in fields like AI and biotechnology. DARPA intentionally pursues extremely risky programs, seeking transformational change over incremental progress, and often learns just as much from their failures. When projects do succeed—such as the development of self-driving vehicles, drones, and mRNA vaccines—they have had worldwide impacts. The agency aims to develop breakthrough technologies by maintaining agility and leveraging short program timelines to stay ahead of global technological developments. These technologies strengthen military readiness, enhance medical responses to biosecurity threats, and ensure peak performance under combat conditions. One of the main challenges discussed by Dr. Koeris was the global “data race,” especially in the field of biological data. While the United States is making progress, China’s aggressive collection of genetic and biological data has put it ahead in developing foundational biological models. This data gap poses risks to U.S. national security, as high-quality biological data is essential for AI and biotechnology advancements. To remain competitive, the United States must focus on generating diverse, original biological data to feed AI models and drive further innovation in biotechnology. As Dr. Koeris emphasized in his lecture, DARPA is committed to ensuring that the United States remains a global leader in biotechnology and national security. By strengthening its position in both data collection and its application in biotechnology, the United States can ensure it stays ahead in the race to shape the future of national defense. The lecture by Dr. Koeris shed light on the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead, leaving us better informed about the potential contributions that advances in biotechnology can make to national security.

This event summary was authored by Biodefense MS Student Katie Groves.

BWC Update
The fifth session of the Working Group on the Strengthening of the Biological Weapons Convention will take place from 2 to 13 December 2024 in Geneva, Switzerland. The agenda of the Working Group, as adopted at its first session, is available online as document BWC/WG/1/1. Details about the meeting, official documents, and side events can be found here.

Further reading:

Bonus: Check out NTI | bio’s two December 2024 BWC Meetings here (one of these is a hybrid event).

California Announces Suspected Avian Flu Case in Child

The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) announced this week that testing has identified a suspected avian influenza infection in a child in Alameda County. The child had mild upper respiratory symptoms and no known contact with any infected animals. The child is recovering at home, and CDPH says that the positive test “showed a low-level detection of the virus, indicating the child was not likely infectious to others.” Repeat testing four days later was negative. Furthermore, the child was found to also be positive for other respiratory viruses that may have caused the mild symptoms. No person-to-person spread has been detected nor is it suspected.

Further reading: “The World Is Watching the U.S. Deal With Bird Flu, and It’s Scary,” The New York Times, Tulio de Oliveira

California Confirms First Known US Clade I Mpox Case

CDPH also reported this week that it detected the first known US case of Clade I mpox. The case was identified in a person who recently traveled from Africa and it is related to the ongoing outbreak in Central and East Africa. The case has been reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The person received care in San Mateo County and is now isolating and recovering at home. Those who had close contact with this person are being contacted by public health workers, but there is currently no concern nor evidence that clade I mpox is spreading between people in California or the US in general.

Jay Bhattacharya Reportedly Top Candidate to Lead NIH

Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford University physician and economist who drew sharp criticism from the likes of Francis S. Collins for his “fringe” ideas about COVID-19 in the letter known as the Great Barrington Declaration, appears poised to be nominated to a top government health role. Bhattacharya is reportedly on the shortlist of contenders to lead the NIH compiled by RFK Jr., President-Elect Trump’s nominee for HHS Secretary. According to the The Washington Post, “Bhattacharya, who has said he was a victim of what felt like a “propaganda attack” led by public health experts after the Great Barrington Declaration, has testified in Congress, met with lawmakers in both parties, and offered advice to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and other leaders navigating the pandemic. Republicans have hailed him as a truth-teller, contrasting the Stanford physician with government officials whom they blame for an overly stringent response to the health crisis.”

Bhattacharya has no experience in a senior government role nor in a role overseeing a large bureaucratic organization. This position requires Senate confirmation. Read more about Bhattacharya’s previous experience and comments about the organization he may soon lead here.

Further reading: “Global Health Experts Sound Alarm Over RFK Jr., Citing Samoa Outbreak,” The Washington Post, Sammy Westfall and Lena H. Sun

Survey of Biosafety and Biosecurity Laws in G20 Nations
The Library of Congress has published a comprehensive overview of biosafety and biosecurity laws for the member of the Group of 20 (G20) as well as a comparative analysis of these laws. According to the report, “Among the G20 nations’ laws discussed in this report, the methods for defining the terms “biosafety” and “biosecurity” generally fall into one of four categories. In the first category, “biosafety” and “biosecurity” are clearly defined in legislation or regulations, with specific distinctions. In the second set of jurisdictions, the term “biosecurity” is applied generally to topics such as laboratory safety, protecting the environment, and guarding against criminal activity involving biological agents that may harm people, plants, animals, and the environment. In other nations, laws may include one identified term, but government strategy statements or publications by government-related scientific organizations supplement the available legal definitions with more detailed descriptions of “biosafety” and “biosecurity.” The remaining nations addressed in this report have enacted laws addressing biosecurity matters, but these laws contain no legal definitions for “biosafety,” “biosecurity,” or similar terminology.”

ISAB Report on PRC, MCF, and Biotechnology
The Secretary of State’s International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) has released a new report on the biotechnology components of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) Strategy, with a focus on biotechnology development objectives, implementation, and implications for international biosecurity. ISAB provides the Department with a continuing source of independent insight, advice, and innovation on all aspects of arms control, disarmament, nonproliferation, outer space, critical infrastructure, cybersecurity, the national security aspects of emerging technologies, international security, and related aspects of public diplomacy.  The ISAB’s goal is to advise the State Department and other federal agencies on how the United States can adapt to the changing global biotech landscape, particularly in the context of strategic competition with PRC. The report proposes that the Department of State and other U.S. government agencies take steps to develop a global biotech system in which a broad range of partners cooperates on scientific research and trade. This requires a long-term strategic approach, and the leadership of the Department of State, to build this global environment that aligns with U.S. interests.

“WHO Technical Advisory Group on the Responsible Use of the Life Sciences and Dual-Use Research: Report of the Meeting, 25 June 2024”

From WHO: “The World Health Organization (WHO) Technical Advisory Group on the Responsible Use of the Life Sciences and Dual-Use Research (TAG-RULS DUR) (1) was established to provide independent advice to WHO on the monitoring and mitigation of biorisks, the advances in the life sciences and related technologies, the governance of dual-use research and the responsible use of the life sciences.””

“This meeting was the second virtual meeting and third overall meeting of 2024. Over the course of the meeting, participants discussed and provided feedback on the first draft of the BioRisk Implementation and Evaluation Framework (BRIEF) Tool, were briefed on the draft WHO course on Dual-Use Research and the Responsible Use of the Life Sciences and delivered updates on activities of the TAG’s four working groups.”

“The TAG-RULS DUR and its working groups will continue to undertake activities on the key topics identified. The group agreed that its next meeting will be held in October 2024.”

Read the meeting report here.

“Age of Biology Requires American Leadership”

Sen. Todd Young, Chair of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology, recently authored this opinion piece for Roll Call in which he discusses a forthcoming report from the Commission discussing actions needed to “maintain and strengthen America’s global leadership position” in biotechnology. He explains in this piece that “Congress must enact policies that accelerate innovations at home, onshore our supply chains, create data-sharing agreements with our allies, and support our military’s use of novel biotechnologies. Broadly, this will be the focus of the NSCEB’s forthcoming Final Report in 2025. Policymakers must protect and promote American biotechnology to ensure the United States leads the Age of Biology, and I am confident the NSCEB will contribute to these efforts.”

“Guidance for Human Genome Data Collection, Access, Use and Sharing”

From WHO: “The ethical, legal, and equitable sharing of human genomic data is critical to advancing global health research and ensuring fair access to the benefits of genomics. The WHO’s new document outlines a comprehensive set of globally applicable principles designed to guide stakeholders in the responsible collection, use, and sharing of human genome data. This document serves as a key resource to navigate complex issues surrounding data governance, with the aim of fostering transparency, promoting equity, and safeguarding individual and collective rights. These principles are intended to support the implementation of best practices across diverse settings, thereby enhancing the global capacity for genomic research and its translation into health benefits for all.”

“The Superbug Fight Needs a Better Business Model”

Annalies Winny published this piece in Global Health Now discussing the dearth of antibiotic research, writing in part “Researchers say that the current business model for developing antibiotics—and getting them to where they’re needed most—isn’t fit for purpose. Countries are starting to get behind incentives that absorb some of the risk, and offer a significant return on investment. But funding for these programs still lags far behind what’s needed to save millions of lives, and billions of dollars in health care costs, and there are doubts about whether incentives led by wealthy nations will satisfy needs in low- and middle-income countries.”

“Gaza Bombardment Worsens Superbug Outbreaks”

Misbah Khan published this piece for The Bureau of Investigative Journalism describing the growing public health crisis in Gaza. She writes in part, “There is a growing and dire public health crisis taking place in Gaza. Israeli blockades and hospital bombings are fuelling a superbug emergency, with civilians who survive starvation and injury later facing untreatable, life-threatening infections…Doctors on the ground told the Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ) they were treating wounds infested with maggots and using vinegar to fight infections.”

“Potential Research Priorities to Inform U.S. Readiness and Response to Avian Influenza A (H5N1)”

From NASEM: “Avian Influenza A (H5) viruses have circulated globally for decades among migratory bird populations. The recent emergence of Avian Influenza A (H5N1) in U.S. dairy cattle has led to challenges in managing and controlling the spread of H5 viruses between livestock, wildlife, and companion animals, as well as to humans from infected animals. The National Academies hosted a public workshop in October 2024 to explore potential research priorities that could inform readiness and response to the outbreak. Discussions followed an interdisciplinary One Health approach, bringing together experts from across human, veterinary, plant, and environmental health disciplines, and builds on published federal research priorities for H5N1 to include perspectives beyond basic translational clinical sciences, to social sciences, veterinary health, agricultural economics, and occupational health, among others.”

Read the proceeding of this workshop here.

“Diagnosis in the Era of Digital Health and Artificial Intelligence: Proceedings of a Workshop-in Brief”

From NASEM: “To explore the opportunities and challenges of using artificial intelligence (AI) and digital health technologies to improve diagnostic processes and outcomes, the National Academies Forum on Advancing Diagnostic Excellence hosted a public workshop in July 2024. Speakers highlighted the role of these technologies throughout the diagnostic process and their impact on the patient experience, including to gain understanding of a patient’s onset of symptoms, to improve information gathering and patient-clinician communication, and to support clinical decision making. Discussions also emphasized the importance of ensuring these technologies do not perpetuate existing health disparities.”

Read the proceedings here.

“OPCW Investigation Confirms Russia’s Likely Use of Chemical Weapons Against Ukraine”

Andrea Stricker authored this analysis of recent OPCW findings regarding Russia’s likely use of CW in Ukraine. She explains that “Russia’s consistent denials that its military forces have deployed illegal chemical weapons in Ukraine were dealt a serious blow on November 18, when the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) announced that it had recently conducted a Technical Assistance Visit to Ukraine and established evidence of chemical weapons use. While the OPCW stopped short of attributing responsibility to Russia, a growing body of evidence points to numerous Russian chemical weapon attacks against Ukrainian front-line troops in violation of the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Moscow is a party.”

“Research and Development Areas to the North of Hamhung”

Read the latest installment of RUSI’s Project Anthracite analysis of the DPRK’s chemical industry and CW program: “The area to the north of the city of Hamhung is home to academic institutions and research and development (R&D) facilities. Furthermore, there are access tunnels to likely underground areas in the vicinity, and the wider region is home to significant chemical industry. Although literature on these facilities is limited, satellite imagery has been analysed to determine whether it is possible to discern any linkages with or provide insight on North Korea’s chemical industry or chemical weapons (CW) programme. Although evidence was circumstantial and no direct linkages could be identified on imagery, the analysis was able to confirm the location of several academic and R&D facilities and contribute to baselining potential academic and R&D facilities in the area.”

“While the location of at least part of a CW programme in or around these facilities cannot be ruled out, there were no features that would indicate the likely presence of a CW programme in these facilities.”

“NNSA celebrating 50 years of the Nuclear Emergency Support Team – NEST”

“This month, NNSA is observing the 50th anniversary of what is now called the Nuclear Emergency Support Team – or NEST. During a recent ceremony at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, leaders from around the government gathered to celebrate the birthday of one its most diverse and capable assets…NEST, created by President Ford in 1974, has a mission to provide federal emergency response in case of a radiological or nuclear threat, incident or accident.”

Read more about NEST, its formation, and its future here.

NEW: DC Biosecurity Happy Hour

From DC Biosecurity Professionals Across Academia, Industry, and Think Tanks: “Please join us for the Biosecurity Happy Hour, an informal event for biosecurity professionals in DC to get to know each other outside of Zoom calls and talk about new ideas in this space. Please note that drinks will be at attendee’s own expense!”

This event will take place on December 5 from 6:30-8 pm EST at Dacha Beer Garden in Washington, DC. Learn more and reserve a spot here.

NEW: A New Paradigm for Threat Agnostic Biodetection: Biological Intelligence (BIOINT)

From PNNL: “Please join us in welcoming Swati Sureka, Strategy and Policy Analyst at Arctic Slope Regional Corporation (ASRC) Federal, where she supports the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Readiness Policy and Oversight. Her talk, titled “A New Paradigm for Threat Agnostic Biodetection: Biological Intelligence (BIOINT),” will take place on Tuesday, December 10th, at noon PT.”

Learn more and RSVP here.

NEW: Cyberbiosecurity Summit

From Johns Hopkins APL and Bio-ISAC: “Advancements in biomanufacturing and biotechnology drive the science we need to thrive, everything from apples to vaccines. The Cyberbiosecurity Summit 2025 convenes leading experts in biotechnology, biosecurity, and cybersecurity to explore the intersection of these fields and discuss the strategies to create a safe, secure future for us all.”
This event will take place February 25-26 in Laurel, MD. Register here and review the call for sessions here.

One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 Book Launch

The Writer’s Center is hosting a book launch for Dr. Laura Kahn’s new book, One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 (blurb below) on November 23 at 2 pm EST in Bethesda, MD. Learn more and RSVP here.

“One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 unpacks the mysteries of COVID-19’s origins to impart important lessons for future outbreaks. The One Health concept recognizes the interconnected links among the health of humans, animals, plants, and the environment. By comparing the history, science, and clinical presentations of three different coronaviruses—SARS-CoV-1, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)—Kahn uncovers insights with important repercussions for how to prepare and avoid future pandemics. The One Health approach provides a useful framework for examining the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the origins of this zoonotic disease requires investigating the environmental and molecular biological factors that allowed the virus to spread to humans. The book explores the many ways in which the wild animal trade, wet markets, and the camel industry contributed to the spread of the earlier SARS-CoV-1 and MERS coronaviruses. For SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), Kahn examines the biosafety, biosecurity, and bioethics implications of gain-of-function research on pandemic potential pathogens. This book is a must read to understand the geopolitics of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

2024 CBD S&T Conference

From DTRA: “The CBD S&T Conference brings together the most innovative and influential chemical and biological defense community members from around the globe to share insights and collaborate on the emerging chem-bio threats of tomorrow.”

“Join the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA) Chemical and Biological Technologies Department in its role as the Joint Science and Technology Office (JSTO) for Chemical and Biological Defense, an integral component of the Chemical and Biological Defense Program, as we Focus Forward to uncover novel concepts and examine groundbreaking discoveries within the chem-bio defense landscape.”

“The 2024 CBD S&T Conference will be held at the Broward County Convention Center, December 2–5, 2024.”

Learn more and register here.

Health Security Intelligence: Managing Threats Risks and Hazards Post-Covid 19
“As  the acute impact of the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, many unaddressed questions remain for Australia about how to better prepare for the next likely health threat, risk or hazard.”

“In addition to how we enhance national public health capacity, what are the important lessons we can learn from the pandemic from national security and biosecurity perspectives?”

“Given the likelihood of another pandemic at some point, an increasingly uncertain geo-political order and the potential exploitation of biotechnology by bad actors how does Australia and its allies better prepare for a future of increasingly complex health security and biological security threats, risks and hazards?”

“This event is for all health security intelligence stakeholders (policy-makers, national security staff, scientists, researchers and clinicians) who work across the one health continuum and national security agencies.”

“It will introduce participants to Charles Sturt’s extensive research agenda across the one health biosecurity, health and biological security and discuss both their national security and scientific implications.  You will hear briefings from key researchers across both STEM and social sciences disciplines working on assessing key health security threats, risks and hazards relevant to your work.”

This event will take place in-person and over livestream on December 4 from 2-4 pm AEDT. Learn more and register here.

Enhancing the Resilience of Healthcare and Public Health Critical Infrastructure: A Workshop

From NASEM: “Healthcare and public health infrastructure, technology, and operations are rapidly changing and are increasingly interdependent and interconnected. Threats to the nation’s critical social and physical infrastructure systems are also rapidly evolving and highly complex—posing potentially new or growing risks of disruption and challenging the assumptions used to design and protect these systems.”

“The National Academies Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Disasters and Emergencies will host a hybrid public workshop to explore strategies, policies, and innovative actions to improve the resilience of healthcare and public health (HPH) critical infrastructure to impacts from disasters and other emergencies.”

This event will take place in DC on December 9 and 10. Register here.

Resilience in the Face of Global Risks

From CSR: “The Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) cordially invites you to our first annual CSR symposium, Resilience in the Face of Global Risks, scheduled for Tuesday, December 10, 2024. This is the first event bringing together all three of CSR’s institutions—the Center for Climate & Security, the Converging Risks Lab, and the Janne E. Nolan Center on Strategic Weapons—to engage with leaders across our mission sets.”

“The United States and its allies face a complex global security landscape where systemic risks like climate and ecological crisis, nuclear proliferation, and biological threats are blending with war, geopolitical competition, and human insecurity in new and profound ways. While there has been tremendous leadership—and meaningful progress—across these overlapping risk areas, they require persistent innovation in community building to meet the modern risk landscape.”

“The symposium will dive into the progress our communities have made—and how our passionate communities can better work together to help shape the future.”

“In addition to a keynote address, guests will hear from panels, take part in breakout sessions showcasing important issues and new ideas, plus engage with thought leaders between sessions. It will be a widely attended gathering, free to attendees.”

“As we enter a new year with an exceptionally dynamic security environment, we hope CSR’s December event will inspire and build a stronger community across professionals dedicated to anticipating and addressing the world’s greatest risks. We appreciate your consideration and hope you will be able to join us on the 10th of December.”

RSVP here.

NEW: Call for Nominees: National Biodefense Science Board
From Global Biodefense: “The Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), is currently seeking applications from qualified individuals to fill 7 vacancies on the National Biodefense Science Board (NBSB).”

“The NBSB advises the HHS Secretary or the ASPR on current and future trends, challenges, and opportunities presented by advances in biological and life sciences, biotechnology, and genetic engineering with respect to threats posed by naturally occurring infectious diseases and chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear agents.”

Read more and access ASPR’s call for nominees here.

“New Public Health Cybersecurity Readiness Survey Set to Boost Preparedness Against Cyber Threats”

“The co-chairs of the Joint Public Health Cybersecurity Task Group of the Healthcare and Public Health Sector Coordinating Council (HSCC) published a special announcement letter announcing the launch of the Public Health Cybersecurity Readiness Survey. The move aims to enhance the cybersecurity preparedness of state, local, tribal, and territorial (SLTT) public health agencies. Participants can expect the anonymous survey to take about 15 minutes to complete, and it will be open until Monday, Dec. 2, 2024.”

Read more and access the survey here.

The Schar School is Hiring!

The Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University is hiring a tenure-track assistant professor. Expertise in international security, national security, homeland security, emergency management, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, the defense industrial base, or transnational crime and corruption will be regarded positively. Candidates whose work focuses on climate security, technological change, and the future of warfare, or domestic extremism are also encouraged to apply, as are candidates with regional expertise. Details can be found here: https://listings.jobs.gmu.edu/jobs/assistant-professor-fairfax-va-virginia-united-states-other.

US AI Safety Institute Issues RFI on Responsible Development of Chem-Bio Models

From AISI: “The U.S. Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute (U.S. AISI), housed within the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), released a Request for Information seeking insight from stakeholders regarding the responsible development and use of chemical and biological (chem-bio) AI models.”

“Input from a broad range of experts in this field will help the U.S. AISI to develop well-informed approaches to assess and mitigate the potential risks of chem-bio AI models, while enabling safe and responsible innovation.”

“Respondents are encouraged to provide concrete examples, best practices, case studies, and actionable recommendations where possible. The full RFI can be found here.”

“The comment period is now open and will close on December 3, 2024, at 11:59PM Eastern Time. Comments can be submitted online at www.regulations.gov, under docket no. 240920-0247.”

Pandora Report 11.15.2024

by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report includes program news, updates on H5N1 and the pandemic agreement negotiations, and coverage of Africa CDC’s new mpox clinical trial and Ukrainian reporting on alleged Russian chemical weapons use.

All-BIOD Panel at the Tucker Symposium on Chemical and Biological Weapons

On November 13-14, the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies hosted the 13th Annual Jonathan B. Tucker Symposium. The symposium is held in honor of Jonathan Tucker who dedicated his career to fighting the scourge of chemical and biological weapons. The first panel of the symposium was composed of two alumni of the Biodefense Graduate Program at the Schar School of Policy and Government: Yong-Bee Lim, Biodefense PhD ’21, and Minh Ly, MS Biodefense ’21. Dr. Lim, who is the Deputy Director of the Converging Risks Lab at the Council for Strategic Risks, gave a presentation on “Technology Democratization and its Implications for CBW Safety and Security: Lessons Learned from Engagement with Non-Traditional Communities.” Ly, who is a Research Fellow at CNS, served as the moderator. In his talk, Dr. Lim discussed his research on the Do-It-Yourself Biology community: a grassroots, decentralized community drawn together by a shared passion for biological experimentation, fostering innovation, and a desire to democratize access and use of life sciences materials, equipment, knowledge, and tools. While often discussed as a potential biosecurity threat in policy circles, Dr. Lim’s research found that much of the conventional wisdom on this community is oversimplified or incorrect. Dr. Lim’s talk concluded with three key lessons learned from his engagement with the community: 1) there is often a gap between perception and reality about biorisks that can lead to improper metrics and incorrect assessments that complicate policy formulation and implementation; 2) as the life sciences are practiced by more people, it is imperative to positively engage and receive buy-in from these communities on addressing biorisk issues; and 3) preventing and countering CBW will be increasingly difficult in a world where definitions for key terms such as biosecurity, democratization, and terrorism are either changing or have no global consensus.

Minh Ly (left) and Yong-Bee Lim (right)

Biodefense Program Bowling Party at the White House

On November 7, a group of students, faculty, and alumni from the Biodefense Graduate Program at the Schar School of Policy and Government went bowling at the Harry S. Truman Bowling Alley in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. Competition was fierce, but friendly, between Team Smallpox, Team Anthrax, Team Plague, and Team Ebola. In between strikes, spares, and gutter balls, the group enjoyed coffee, pastries, and lively conversations. Biodefense master’s student Tyler Smith won a fall-themed White House challenge coin for achieving the highest score. Team Smallpox, composed of MS Biodefense students Will MacDonald and Tyler Smith, Biodefense PhD student Annette Prieto, and Biodefense PhD alum Jen Osetek, emerged victorious and walked away with more White House merch. “This was an amazing experience,” said Annette, who works as a Technical Analyst at RAND, “The fun and friendly competition we shared in such an iconic setting made for an unforgettable day and helped build bonds that will extend beyond the lanes.” Program director Gregory Koblentz was rusty but managed to throw one strike and two spares after a healthy infusion of caffeine. The bowling party was graciously hosted by Biodefense PhD student Katherine Dammer who is Special Assistant for Global Health Security and Biodefense at the National Security Council.

Avian Influenza Updates

Canada Reports First Domestically Acquired Human H5N1 Case

The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) confirmed the country’s first domestically acquired human case of avian influenza (caused by H5N1) earlier this week. On November 9, the Office of the Provincial Health Officer for British Columbia reported that a BC teenager was hospitalized and tested presumptive positive for H5N1. On November 13, PHAC’s National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg confirmed the test result and that genomic sequencing indicated that the virus is related to the H5N1 viruses circulating in poultry in British Columbia. Provincial officials are conducting an investigation and are taking actions like contact tracing, testing, and offering antiviral medication to contacts. No further cases have been identified at this time, and it is not clear how the teenager was infected.

PHAC says that the risk to the general public remains low at this time, but the risk is higher for those with unprotected exposure to infected animals. Importantly, the genotype of H5N1 avian influenza in US dairy cattle is not the same as the one confirmed in the domestically acquired human case in BC. No cases of avian influenza have been reported in Canadian dairy cattle, and there is no evidence of its presence in Canadian milk samples.

CDC Calls for Expanding Testing

Federal health officials called for more testing of farmworkers after a CDC study showed that 7% of those tested in Michigan and Colorado had antibodies indicative of a previous H5N1 infection. Only one of the eight workers reported working with infected cows, despite all eight of them doing so. CDC explained in a statement that “…there are two primary ways that workers in the United States have been infected with H5N1 virus: via exposure to infected poultry during culling activities, and through exposure to infected dairy cows, including while caring for sick cows, or when working in a milking parlor, the area on the farm where cows are milked.”

Based on this, the agency has updated its existing recommendation on actions to prevent exposures to H5N1 infected animals, including:

  • “Decreasing human exposure through One Health control strategies and biosecurity to limit H5N1 virus infections in animals.”
  • “Enhancing personal protective equipment (PPE) guidance to more clearly detail what PPE is appropriate for exposure risk levels (high, medium, and low) in farming and poultry culling operations, alongside more robust worker training on proper use of PPE.”
  • “Identifying exposed workers and providing appropriate testing as well as post-exposure prophylaxis (i.e., efforts to limit spread of disease), and treatment (e.g., antivirals).”
  • “Offering testing to asymptomatic workers with a high-risk exposure who reported not wearing relevant PPE or who experienced a PPE breach or failure.”
  • “Increasing outreach and education with farm workers, employers, and advocacy groups to stress and ensure understanding of these messages and strategies.”

The CDC has also updated recommendations for testing and offering oral antiviral medications. This includes the recommendation that asymptomatic workers with a PPE-unprotected, high-risk exposure to sick animals be offered oseltamivir. The statement explains that a high-risk exposure “could include an unprotected splash in the face with raw cow milk from an infected or potentially infected cow, or not using recommended PPE during activities to depopulate poultry at a poultry farm with known H5N1.” The recommendations also include offering influenza A(H5) testing to asymptomatic workers who have had a high-risk exposure to animals infected with H5N1, whether or not that worker chooses to begin PEP.

The Pandemic Agreement Will Not Be Ready by December

Co-chairs of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Intergovernmental Negotiating Body (INB), Ambassador Anne-Claire Amprou and Precious Matsoso, explained at a media briefing earlier this week that the pandemic agreement will not be adopted at a special World Health Assembly next month as initially thought. They indicated that this was because countries need “more time,” though the INB is already in its 12th meeting following 32 months of negotiations. Ambassador Amprou said at the briefing, “Today, member states agreed we need to conclude the agreement as soon as possible and continue negotiations into 2025 with the goal of concluding the agreement by the next WHA scheduled in May 2025, so we are moving in the right direction with a strong political commitment by member states.”’

Africa CDC Launches Mpox Drug Trial

The Africa CDC recently announced the launch of a trial of the antiviral drug brincidofovir as a treatment for mpox. Brincidofovir, sold under the brand name Tembexa, is a prodrug of cidofovir and is currently approved in the United States to treat smallpox. The trial, “The MpOx Study in Africa (MOSA),” will evaluate the safety and efficacy of brincidofovir with the drug’s developer, Emergent BioSolutions, announcing that it will be conducted and sponsored by PANTHER-the pandemic preparedness platform for health and emerging infectious response.

The trial was announced shortly after the total number of cases of mpox in this outbreak surpassed 50,000. Jean Kaseya, MD, Director General of Africa CDC, said in a statement “Africa is not just responding to the Mpox outbreak; we are leading the charge by spearheading research and development for Mpox therapeutics…The MpOx Study in Africa is a groundbreaking step toward developing an effective treatment that will save lives. This goes beyond research—it’s about African ownership and leadership in tackling our continent’s health challenges through essential research.”

Ukrainian General Staff Reports 323 Uses of Russian CW Use in October

Ukraine’s General Staff reported on November 8 that it had detected 323 Russian uses of CW on the battlefield in October. This brings the total to 4,613 uses reported by Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. An August investigation from the Kyiv Independent showed that Russia’s use of CW is growing, with some Ukrainian soldiers reporting dealing with up to six attacks daily. The United Kingdom announced sanctions against relevant Russian units last month, and the US Department of State cited Russian use of chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops in its announcement of more than 280 sanctions against individuals and entities tied to Russia earlier this year.

Emerging Infectious Diseases-“Vol 30, No. 14 Supplement – Reports from the US Department of Defense Global Emerging Infections Surveillance Program”

David M. Brett-Major writes in this issue of CDC’s Emerging Infectious Diseases‘ introduction, “This supplement contains new technical outputs and perspectives from the Global Emerging Infections Surveillance (GEIS) program within the Department of Defense (DoD). GEIS develops, invests in, disseminates, and integrates information from health surveillance activities conducted by military, academic, public health, and other partners. GEIS-funded researchers from around the world provide novel surveillance data that are used to update the military and civilian outputs from this long-standing initiative.”

“Trump Administration’s Chance to Lead on Pandemic Preparedness”

Syra Madad discusses the incoming administration’s opportunity to leverage lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic in this piece from the Belfer Center, writing in part “As the Trump administration prepares to take office, it faces a pivotal moment to leverage hard-earned lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic and build a more resilient, pandemic-prepared nation. The challenges of managing the first year of COVID-19 exposed critical vulnerabilities in our fragmented public health infrastructure and decentralized healthcare system. The administration is now uniquely positioned to prioritize pandemic preparedness as a matter of national security. This proactive approach is more important than ever, particularly given the current threat posed by H5N1 avian influenza, which is spreading rapidly among wild birds – among other species and causing outbreaks in U.S. poultry and dairy herds. Recent human cases among farmworkers exposed to infected livestock further underscore the urgency of this threat.”

“Cyberattacks on Healthcare: A Global Threat That Can’t Be Ignored”

Vibhu Mishra wrote this piece discussing UNSC’s interest in protecting healthcare infrastructure against cyberattacks for UN News: “An alarming surge in ransomware attacks is putting the world’s healthcare infrastructure at critical risk, endangering patient safety and destabilising health systems, the head of the UN World Health Organization (WHO) warned on Friday, as the Security Council convened to discuss strategies to counter the growing threat.”

Read more here and read the WHO Director-General’s remarks from the meeting here.

“Robust Biosecurity Measures Should Be Standardized at Scientific Cloud Labs”

Jeffrey Lee and Barbara Del Castello recently authored this commentary piece for the RAND Corporation. In it, they discuss clous labs and argue that “By adopting comprehensive security measures, including routine evaluations and monitoring via artificial intelligence (AI), the scientific community, ideally through a consortium, can harness the full potential of cloud labs while ensuring safe and secure research environments.”

“The U.S. Could Soon Face a Threat ‘More Powerful’ Than Nuclear Weapons”

Ashish K. Jha, Matt Pottinger and Matthew McKnight discuss the implications of rapid advancement in synthetic biology and how to achieve bioweapons deterrence in this Washington Post opinion piece. They point to the importance of superior intelligence gathering and analysis, writing that “For deterrence to work, Washington and its allies must have a robust, pervasive system for tracking and, where possible, eliminating highly dangerous research around the world.” However, they explain that the primary challenge to expanding and improving US BIOINT efforts is not technology, but resolve, with Congress having recently watered down the Biden administration’s budget request for pandemic prevention and biosurveillance efforts outlined in the 2023 Biodefense Posture Review remaining underfunded. They conclude that BIOINT alone won’t deter adversaries, but that all necessary elements of bioweapons deterrence depend on world-class BIOINT.

“Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools”

From NTI: “The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with the life sciences offers tremendous potential benefits to society, but advances in AI biodesign tools also pose significant risks of misuse, with the potential for global consequences.”

“AI biodesign tools (BDTs) are technologies that enable the engineering of biological systems. These tools are trained on biological data and are developed to provide insights, predictions, and designs related to biological systems. BDTs have the potential to drive progress in the development of new therapeutics and are likely to have a significant impact across the broader bioeconomy, including in agriculture, health, and materials science. However, there are risks BDTs could be misused to design dangerous pathogens, and few safeguards exist to ensure that the benefits of these technologies can be realized safely and securely.”

“Innovative strategies are needed to reduce the risks associated with potential misuse of biological design tools without significantly hindering beneficial uses. This report identifies a number of strategies, referred to as guardrails, that could be developed to safeguard BDTs against misuse.”

Read the report here.

What We’re Listening To🎧

Build the Base Podcast-Tracy Frost and Dr. Kate Sixt, DoD Research and Engineering OUSD
“In this episode of Building the Base, Lauren Bedula and Hondo Geurts sit down with Tracy Frost, Director of Technology Industrial Innovation Base, and Dr. Kate Sixt, Principal Director for Biotechnology at the Department of Defense. The conversation explores the revolutionary intersection of biotechnology and national security, diving into how the DoD is leveraging bio-manufacturing to strengthen domestic supply chains and innovate defense capabilities. From converting waste products into valuable materials to creating new pathways for manufacturing critical components, the discussion reveals how public-private partnerships are reshaping America’s industrial base.”

One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 Book Launch

The Writer’s Center is hosting a book launch for Dr. Laura Kahn’s new book, One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 (blurb below) on November 23 at 2 pm EST in Bethesda, MD. Learn more and RSVP here.

“One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 unpacks the mysteries of COVID-19’s origins to impart important lessons for future outbreaks. The One Health concept recognizes the interconnected links among the health of humans, animals, plants, and the environment. By comparing the history, science, and clinical presentations of three different coronaviruses—SARS-CoV-1, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)—Kahn uncovers insights with important repercussions for how to prepare and avoid future pandemics. The One Health approach provides a useful framework for examining the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the origins of this zoonotic disease requires investigating the environmental and molecular biological factors that allowed the virus to spread to humans. The book explores the many ways in which the wild animal trade, wet markets, and the camel industry contributed to the spread of the earlier SARS-CoV-1 and MERS coronaviruses. For SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), Kahn examines the biosafety, biosecurity, and bioethics implications of gain-of-function research on pandemic potential pathogens. This book is a must read to understand the geopolitics of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Enhancing the Resilience of Healthcare and Public Health Critical Infrastructure

From NASEM: “Healthcare and public health infrastructure, technology, and operations are rapidly changing and are increasingly interdependent and interconnected. Threats to the nation’s critical social and physical infrastructure systems are also rapidly evolving and highly complex—posing potentially new or growing risks of disruption and challenging the assumptions used to design and protect these systems.”

“The National Academies Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Disasters and Emergencies will host a hybrid public workshop to explore strategies, policies, and innovative actions to improve the resilience of healthcare and public health (HPH) critical infrastructure to impacts from disasters and other emergencies.”

This event will take place in DC on December 9 and 10. Register here.

Resilience in the Face of Global Risks

From CSR: “The Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) cordially invites you to our first annual CSR symposium, Resilience in the Face of Global Risks, scheduled for Tuesday, December 10, 2024. This is the first event bringing together all three of CSR’s institutions—the Center for Climate & Security, the Converging Risks Lab, and the Janne E. Nolan Center on Strategic Weapons—to engage with leaders across our mission sets.”

“The United States and its allies face a complex global security landscape where systemic risks like climate and ecological crisis, nuclear proliferation, and biological threats are blending with war, geopolitical competition, and human insecurity in new and profound ways. While there has been tremendous leadership—and meaningful progress—across these overlapping risk areas, they require persistent innovation in community building to meet the modern risk landscape.”

“The symposium will dive into the progress our communities have made—and how our passionate communities can better work together to help shape the future.”

“In addition to a keynote address, guests will hear from panels, take part in breakout sessions showcasing important issues and new ideas, plus engage with thought leaders between sessions. It will be a widely attended gathering, free to attendees.”

“As we enter a new year with an exceptionally dynamic security environment, we hope CSR’s December event will inspire and build a stronger community across professionals dedicated to anticipating and addressing the world’s greatest risks. We appreciate your consideration and hope you will be able to join us on the 10th of December.”

RSVP here.

2024 CBD S&T Conference

From DTRA: “The CBD S&T Conference brings together the most innovative and influential chemical and biological defense community members from around the globe to share insights and collaborate on the emerging chem-bio threats of tomorrow.”

“Join the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA) Chemical and Biological Technologies Department in its role as the Joint Science and Technology Office (JSTO) for Chemical and Biological Defense, an integral component of the Chemical and Biological Defense Program, as we Focus Forward to uncover novel concepts and examine groundbreaking discoveries within the chem-bio defense landscape.”

“The 2024 CBD S&T Conference will be held at the Broward County Convention Center, December 2–5, 2024.”

Learn more and register here.

Health Security Intelligence: Managing Threats Risks and Hazards Post-Covid 19
“As  the acute impact of the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, many unaddressed questions remain for Australia about how to better prepare for the next likely health threat, risk or hazard.”

“In addition to how we enhance national public health capacity, what are the important lessons we can learn from the pandemic from national security and biosecurity perspectives?”

“Given the likelihood of another pandemic at some point, an increasingly uncertain geo-political order and the potential exploitation of biotechnology by bad actors how does Australia and its allies better prepare for a future of increasingly complex health security and biological security threats, risks and hazards?”

“This event is for all health security intelligence stakeholders (policy-makers, national security staff, scientists, researchers and clinicians) who work across the one health continuum and national security agencies.”

“It will introduce participants to Charles Sturt’s extensive research agenda across the one health biosecurity, health and biological security and discuss both their national security and scientific implications.  You will hear briefings from key researchers across both STEM and social sciences disciplines working on assessing key health security threats, risks and hazards relevant to your work.”

This event will take place in-person and over livestream on December 4 from 2-4 pm AEDT. Learn more and register here.

NEW: “New Public Health Cybersecurity Readiness Survey Set to Boost Preparedness Against Cyber Threats”

“The co-chairs of the Joint Public Health Cybersecurity Task Group of the Healthcare and Public Health Sector Coordinating Council (HSCC) published a special announcement letter announcing the launch of the Public Health Cybersecurity Readiness Survey. The move aims to enhance the cybersecurity preparedness of state, local, tribal, and territorial (SLTT) public health agencies. Participants can expect the anonymous survey to take about 15 minutes to complete, and it will be open until Monday, Dec. 2, 2024.”

Read more and access the survey here.

The Schar School is Hiring!

The Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University is hiring a tenure-track assistant professor. Expertise in international security, national security, homeland security, emergency management, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, the defense industrial base, or transnational crime and corruption will be regarded positively. Candidates whose work focuses on climate security, technological change, and the future of warfare, or domestic extremism are also encouraged to apply, as are candidates with regional expertise. Details can be found here: https://listings.jobs.gmu.edu/jobs/assistant-professor-fairfax-va-virginia-united-states-other.

US AI Safety Institute Issues RFI on Responsible Development of Chem-Bio Models

From AISI: “The U.S. Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute (U.S. AISI), housed within the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), released a Request for Information seeking insight from stakeholders regarding the responsible development and use of chemical and biological (chem-bio) AI models.”

“Input from a broad range of experts in this field will help the U.S. AISI to develop well-informed approaches to assess and mitigate the potential risks of chem-bio AI models, while enabling safe and responsible innovation.”

“Respondents are encouraged to provide concrete examples, best practices, case studies, and actionable recommendations where possible. The full RFI can be found here.”

“The comment period is now open and will close on December 3, 2024, at 11:59PM Eastern Time. Comments can be submitted online at www.regulations.gov, under docket no. 240920-0247.”

Pandora Report 11.8.2024

by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report discusses one Biodefense MS student’s research on malaria, the UK’s recently-announced sanctions against 56 people and entities linked to Russia, the CDC’s call for more avian influenza testing, and what a second Trump administration likely means for US public health and global health security.

Biodefense MS Student Presents at Malaria Research Symposium

Zachary Berliner, a Biodefense MS student, is presenting a poster at the 10th Annual Future of Malaria Research Symposium in Baltimore, MD, on November 8. This conference, jointly run by the Johns Hopkins Malaria Research Institute and the University of Maryland School of Medicine, provides “a platform for early-career scientists to share their research with peers, emerging leaders, and established investigators.” In 2023, nine cases of locally acquired malaria occurred in the United States, the first such cases in twenty years. Zak’s project, Public Opinions Toward Malaria Control Interventions in the National Capital Region, featured a survey of adults in the National Capital Region about their opinions toward various malaria control interventions. His study serves as an indicator of preliminary opinions among a small group of Americans to better inform politicians. His poster can be found here, and the full paper can be found here. The poster is based on the capstone paper that Zak wrote as a culmination of his experience in the Biodefense program. Zak is graduating with his MS in Biodefense in December and is looking for policy and analysis opportunities focused on biodefense and health security.

United Kingdom Announces Sanctions on 56 People and Entities Linked to Russia

The UK announced its largest sanctions package against Russia since May of last year this week, in a series of actions the government hopes “disrupts the supply of vital equipment for Putin’s war machine and bears down on Russian malign activity globally, exposing the corrupt activities of Russian proxy military groups in Africa.” Those sanctioned include Denis Sergeev (who was charged by the Met Police in the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal), entities in China, Turkey, and Central Asia, Africa Corps and other private mercenary groups linked to the Kremlin, and others. The UK is the first G7 country to directly sanction Africa Corps, which has directly threatened peace and security in Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic.

CDC Calls for Expanded Bird Flu Testing as California and Washington Report More Cases

Officials at the CDC called for more testing on farms with avian influenza cases after a recent study found some dairy workers have shown signs of infection even though they did not report feeling sick. The study that 7% of the 115 farmworkers whose blood was tested (eight) had antibodies consistent with previous H5N1 infection, pointing to more infections than the 46 identified so far. More cases in farmworkers have also been reported in recent days, including at least four in California and three in Washington. The California Department of Public Health also recently reported one other probable case in a dairy worker who met the case definition, though CDC’s confirmation test was negative.

What Lies Ahead in Trump’s Second Term

President-Elect Trump’s recent victory likely will have severe implications for both domestic health policy and global health security. The first Trump administration largely failed in its response to the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the US ranking very well in pre-pandemic preparedness assessments like the Global Health Security Index and the Trump administration being handed a pandemic playbook by the preceding Obama administration that specifically flagged novel coronaviruses as a potential pandemic threat. The upcoming second Trump administration looks ready to fair just as poorly in terms of not just pandemic preparedness, but in general public health and global health engagement as well.

The president-elect, who has repeatedly and falsely claimed that climate change is a hoax, has promised to rollback federal regulations on the oil and gas industry that are aimed at slowing climate change. Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 Paris Climate Accord in 2017, and his campaign has indicated it intends to do the same again once he is back in office. Trump is also expected to target the EPA during his second term. Changes like this are especially concerning as the effects of climate change, such as increased extreme weather and easier spread of infectious diseases, pose a growing threat globally.

Trump does plan to involve at least one environmental lawyer in his administration-Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an environmental lawyer who Trump has suggested may play a large role in public health in his administration. Unfortunately, Kennedy has no training in public health or medicine, and he has repeatedly peddled anti-vaccine conspiracy theories over the years. Kennedy also faced backlash for comments suggesting COVID-19 was “ethnically targeted,” saying “COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese…We don’t know whether it was deliberately targeted or not but there are papers out there that show the racial or ethnic differential and impact.” Kennedy has also voiced criticism of the childhood vaccine schedule and public water fluoridation, claiming the latter is “lowering IQ in our children,” in contrast to what numerous studies over multiple decades show about its safety and efficacy.

Trump has promised to allow Kennedy to “go wild on” health, medicines, and food policy, with Kennedy saying he believes entire departments at the FDA “have to go.” Kennedy has also said he wants an eight-year-long “break” in NIH funding for infectious disease research, and that he would move that money to chronic disease research. Congressional Republicans have targeted the NIH in recent years, including efforts to strip its authority over gain of function research and repeatedly attacking former NIAID Director, Anthony Fauci.

Trump’s second term also may pose threats to global health security more directly. For example, in 2020, the Trump administration formally notified the United Nations that it intended to withdraw the country from the World Health Organization. This move would have cut off one of the largest funding sources to the WHO in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, some experts argue the attempt was unlawful, in addition to the threat it posed to domestic and global health and security. While the Trump campaign mentioned few specifics about foreign policy for a second term, the United Nations is bracing itself for this incoming administration.

This week’s election results have many experts deeply concerned about what this administration will bring. Saskia Popescu, an alumna of the Schar School’s Biodefense PhD Program and current adjunct professor at the school made this statement to The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists about the election result’s implications for public health: Right now, I think you’d be hard-pressed to find many in public health, healthcare, and pandemic preparedness/response, who are not deeply concerned. The recent notion that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could be in charge of public health for the United States poses a real danger. From his claims that vaccines are harmful or unnecessary to his proposed efforts to remove fluoride from public water systems, Kennedy continuously pushes anti-science rhetoric and dis/misinformation.

History has shown us what might happen under another Trump administration during times of crises, from extreme weather events to a pandemic. We have seen how an administration that pits itself against science and dedicated public service officials reacts. As we face an ongoing H5N1 outbreak, persistent outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, an erosion of trust in public health, a rise in dis/misinformation, and widening social disparities, we need leadership that will unite rather than divide.

We are at a critical time in forming effective and pragmatic policies to address complex issues such as the ways in which developments in artificial intelligence (AI) will affect biosecurity, the safety and security around critical research of dangerous pathogens, the effects of climate change on infectious diseases, and the need to strengthen global health through equity and partnership.

Developing policies in these areas will require strategies based on collaboration and evidence-based measures–not inflammatory, inaccurate, and harmful rhetoric that furthers partisan divides and enflames social discourse. It’s our responsibility to find a path that ensures the protection of public health and global health security. We’ve got a lot of work to do, and I fear a hard road ahead of us.

Others have voiced concerns about a return to US isolationism in global health, Trump not seeking out quality scientific advice, policies regarding vaccines, and more that can be read in this piece from The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

“HHS’ ASPR Playing ‘Quarterback’ for Cyber Response, Resilience”

Jason Miller discusses ASPR’s cyber efforts with Biodefense PhD Program alumnus, Schar School adjunct professor, and current Deputy Director of ASPR’s Office of Preparedness in this piece for Federal News Network: “Just a little over a year ago, that coordination was occurring, but not as smooth as it needed to be. We took some steps, and actually now have a Public Health Service, captain, or an 06 officer, permanently embedded within the National Cyber Investigative Joint Task Force, that the FBI leads. We have a HHS ASPR person embedded full time with the FBI agents and other law enforcement folks who work in that task force and really are dealing with very sensitive information and responding to cyber incidents in the healthcare sector every day,” said Mazanec on Ask the CIO. “That’s just another example where we’ve really tightened up and continue to mature our partnership with the FBI. We do work with the other health focused entities like the Veterans Affairs Department, the Defense Health Agency, certainly within HHS, with the Indian Health Service  and with the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services.”

Read more here.

“GHSD Five-year Strategy 2024-2028 (October 2024)”

The State Department’s Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy recently released its strategic plan for 2024-2028: “The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the importance of preventing, detecting, and responding to health crises to safeguard American lives and the global economy. Building on the successes of the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has saved more than 25 million lives from HIV/AIDS, and to address the growing challenges posed by health threats, the State Department established the Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy in August 2023.”

“Building on decades of leadership on global health within the State Department, the Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy’s mission is to lead U.S. diplomatic engagement, help coordinate foreign assistance, and promote international cooperation against health threats, integrating global health security as a core component of national security and foreign policy. The bureau’s first ever five-year Strategy for 2024-2028 outlines the State Department’s role in ending HIV/AIDS as a public health threat and advancing global health security and pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response efforts for the U.S. government.”

“The goals of the Strategy are to:

  • End HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030
  • Catalyze the political will, financing, and leadership necessary to achieve heath security and address public health threats, including HIV/AIDS
  • Improve global multisectoral preparedness and response through diplomacy to protect against health security threats
  • Empower the diplomatic workforce to prioritize and integrate global health security as a key pillar of U.S. foreign policy.”

Read the strategy here.

“Chemical Weapons Policymakers Must Act to Balance the Prospects and Perils of AI”

Patrick Norén recently published this CBNW article covering a conference organized by the OPCW and Kingdom of Morocco focused on the role of AI in advancing implementation of the CWC. Norén covers general trends in speakers’ comments, the dual use nature of AI, challenges in legislation, regulation, and cooperation, and issues with misinformation and disinformation.

“MATCH 2.0 Enters Demonstration and Live Testing Phase”

From Stimson: “Behind every chemical transfer is a story, and too often, that story includes discrepancies in reported data. The Stimson Center’s MATCH project team has completed development of an updated DLT prototype and is demonstrating to CWC National Authorities and other stakeholders how it traces these narratives and creates a clear, immutable record of each transaction, aligning records of national authorities and industry while maintaining data confidentiality, reducing risks of misreporting, and enhancing nonproliferation by enabling faster reconciliation of discrepancies in the annual reporting of chemicals covered by the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).”

Read more here.

“THE NEXUS BETWEEN SCIENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY IN CANADA: THE CASE OF THE NATIONAL MICROBIOLOGY LABORATORY IN WINNIPEG”

The Canadian House of Commons’ Special Committee on the Canada-People’s Republic of China Relationship recently released this interim report. Among other things, the report reveals that CSIS “issued a direct and unheeded warning to senior health officials in August 2018, raising concerns about “insider threat activities” linked to Dr. Xiangguo Qiu and her husband, Keding Cheng.” The report explains in its conclusion “The events at the Winnipeg NML facility revealed, as outlined in this report, the fundamentally open and collaborative nature of Canadian scientific research as a means of contributing to the common good, on the one hand, and, on the other, the need for a cultural shift within the scientific field in terms of its vigilance over national security risks and the need to reconsider how we collaborate with entities or states that may not share the same interests as Canada. For example, with regard to the PRC, Mr. Vigneault said that “[i]t is sometimes in our own national interest to collaborate with Chinese entities, but we need to do it with our eyes wide open and make sure that we protect our own base.”’

Read Sam Cooper’s coverage of this report in The Bureau here.

NEW: Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools

From NTI: “Join us for a virtual webinar releasing the findings of NTI | bio’s new report, Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools, followed by a moderated discussion and Q+A with distinguished guest Claire Quereshi.”

“Artificial intelligence (AI) promises to revolutionize not only aspects of daily life but cutting-edge scientific research and development. Within the life sciences, AI biodesign tools (BDTs) have improved significantly in their ability to design biological molecules and make predictions about living systems, displaying potential for beneficial applications and posing significant potential risks if misused.”

“Authors Sarah R. Carter, Ph.D., Nicole E. Wheeler, Ph.D., Christopher R. Isaac, M.Sc., and Jaime M. Yassif, Ph.D. conducted interviews with experts with deep experience creating bioinformatic tools, developing BDTs, and crafting biosecurity policies. The report outlines several proposed measures that could be deployed to design governance approaches to reduce biological risks without unduly hindering scientific advances.”

This event will take place virtually on November 14 at 11 am ET. Learn more and register here.

NEW: A Year-End Review, Recapping Global AI Governance Efforts

From CSET: “This time last year seemed to herald a landmark period in establishing AI governance regimes around the world. After ChatGPT and other AI tools burst onto the scene, U.S. policymakers issued new executive orders, hosted hearings and high-profile learning sessions, and developed new frameworks and standards to support the safe and secure development of AI. Elsewhere, the European Union worked to finalize its AI Act, and China announced its Global AI Governance Initiative. One year later, where do the promises and commitments to govern AI stand?”

“Join us on November 14, as we look back on the last year of global AI governance efforts and evaluate what progress has been made, what work remains to be done, and what the actions of global partners and competitors alike mean for U.S. strategy going forward. CSET Associate Director of Analysis Owen J. Daniels will moderate a conversation with CSET researchers Mia Hoffmann, Mina Narayanan, and Cole McFaul as we survey governance developments around the world over the past year. The moderated discussion will be followed by audience Q&A.”

This event will take place at 1 pm ET on November 14. Learn more and RSVP here.

NEW: Enhancing the Resilience of Healthcare and Public Health Critical Infrastructure

From NASEM: “Healthcare and public health infrastructure, technology, and operations are rapidly changing and are increasingly interdependent and interconnected. Threats to the nation’s critical social and physical infrastructure systems are also rapidly evolving and highly complex—posing potentially new or growing risks of disruption and challenging the assumptions used to design and protect these systems.”

“The National Academies Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Disasters and Emergencies will host a hybrid public workshop to explore strategies, policies, and innovative actions to improve the resilience of healthcare and public health (HPH) critical infrastructure to impacts from disasters and other emergencies.”

This event will take place in DC on December 9 and 10. Register here.

NEW: Resilience in the Face of Global Risks

From CSR: “The Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) cordially invites you to our first annual CSR symposium, Resilience in the Face of Global Risks, scheduled for Tuesday, December 10, 2024. This is the first event bringing together all three of CSR’s institutions—the Center for Climate & Security, the Converging Risks Lab, and the Janne E. Nolan Center on Strategic Weapons—to engage with leaders across our mission sets.”

“The United States and its allies face a complex global security landscape where systemic risks like climate and ecological crisis, nuclear proliferation, and biological threats are blending with war, geopolitical competition, and human insecurity in new and profound ways. While there has been tremendous leadership—and meaningful progress—across these overlapping risk areas, they require persistent innovation in community building to meet the modern risk landscape.”

“The symposium will dive into the progress our communities have made—and how our passionate communities can better work together to help shape the future.”

“In addition to a keynote address, guests will hear from panels, take part in breakout sessions showcasing important issues and new ideas, plus engage with thought leaders between sessions. It will be a widely attended gathering, free to attendees.”

“As we enter a new year with an exceptionally dynamic security environment, we hope CSR’s December event will inspire and build a stronger community across professionals dedicated to anticipating and addressing the world’s greatest risks. We appreciate your consideration and hope you will be able to join us on the 10th of December.”

RSVP here.

Preparing for the Next Outbreak: Designing Closer Collaboration between Healthcare and Public Health to Deploy Pathogen-Agnostic Testing as an Early Warning System

From PNNL: “Please join us in welcoming Dr. Adi V. Gundlapalli, Senior Advisor for Data Readiness and Response in the Office of Public Health Data, Surveillance, and Technology at the CDC for his talk titled “Preparing for the Next Outbreak: Designing Closer Collaboration between Healthcare and Public Health to Deploy Pathogen-Agnostic Testing as an Early Warning System”. This webinar will take place Wednesday, November 13th, at noon PT.”

Learn more and register here.

Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools

From NTI: “Join us for a virtual webinar releasing the findings of NTI | bio’s new report, Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools, followed by a moderated discussion and Q+A with distinguished guest Claire Quereshi.”

“Artificial intelligence (AI) promises to revolutionize not only aspects of daily life but cutting-edge scientific research and development. Within the life sciences, AI biodesign tools (BDTs) have improved significantly in their ability to design biological molecules and make predictions about living systems, displaying potential for beneficial applications and posing significant potential risks if misused.”

This virtual event will take place on November 14 at 11 am EST. Learn more and register here.

13th Annual Jonathan Tucker Symposium

“The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies cordially invites you to the 13th annual Jonathan Tucker Symposium on chemical and biological weapons issues on November 13th and 14th, 2024.”

Among this year’s speakers are Dr. Yong-Bee Lim, an alumnus of the Biodefense PhD Program and Deputy Director of the Converging Risks Lab and Biosecurity Projects Manager at the Council on Strategic Risks, who will give a talk titled “Technology Democratization and its Implications for CBW Safety and Security: Lessons Learned from Engagement with Non-Traditional Communities.”

Learn more and register here.

One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 Book Launch

The Writer’s Center is hosting a book launch for Dr. Laura Kahn’s new book, One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 (blurb below) on November 23 at 2 pm EST in Bethesda, MD. Learn more and RSVP here.

“One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 unpacks the mysteries of COVID-19’s origins to impart important lessons for future outbreaks. The One Health concept recognizes the interconnected links among the health of humans, animals, plants, and the environment. By comparing the history, science, and clinical presentations of three different coronaviruses—SARS-CoV-1, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)—Kahn uncovers insights with important repercussions for how to prepare and avoid future pandemics. The One Health approach provides a useful framework for examining the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the origins of this zoonotic disease requires investigating the environmental and molecular biological factors that allowed the virus to spread to humans. The book explores the many ways in which the wild animal trade, wet markets, and the camel industry contributed to the spread of the earlier SARS-CoV-1 and MERS coronaviruses. For SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), Kahn examines the biosafety, biosecurity, and bioethics implications of gain-of-function research on pandemic potential pathogens. This book is a must read to understand the geopolitics of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

2024 CBD S&T Conference

From DTRA: “The CBD S&T Conference brings together the most innovative and influential chemical and biological defense community members from around the globe to share insights and collaborate on the emerging chem-bio threats of tomorrow.”

“Join the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA) Chemical and Biological Technologies Department in its role as the Joint Science and Technology Office (JSTO) for Chemical and Biological Defense, an integral component of the Chemical and Biological Defense Program, as we Focus Forward to uncover novel concepts and examine groundbreaking discoveries within the chem-bio defense landscape.”

“The 2024 CBD S&T Conference will be held at the Broward County Convention Center, December 2–5, 2024.”

Learn more and register here.

Health Security Intelligence: Managing Threats Risks and Hazards Post-Covid 19
“As  the acute impact of the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, many unaddressed questions remain for Australia about how to better prepare for the next likely health threat, risk or hazard.”

“In addition to how we enhance national public health capacity, what are the important lessons we can learn from the pandemic from national security and biosecurity perspectives?”

“Given the likelihood of another pandemic at some point, an increasingly uncertain geo-political order and the potential exploitation of biotechnology by bad actors how does Australia and its allies better prepare for a future of increasingly complex health security and biological security threats, risks and hazards?”

“This event is for all health security intelligence stakeholders (policy-makers, national security staff, scientists, researchers and clinicians) who work across the one health continuum and national security agencies.”

“It will introduce participants to Charles Sturt’s extensive research agenda across the one health biosecurity, health and biological security and discuss both their national security and scientific implications.  You will hear briefings from key researchers across both STEM and social sciences disciplines working on assessing key health security threats, risks and hazards relevant to your work.”

This event will take place in-person and over livestream on December 4 from 2-4 pm AEDT. Learn more and register here.

US AI Safety Institute Issues RFI on Responsible Development of Chem-Bio Models

From AISI: “The U.S. Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute (U.S. AISI), housed within the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), released a Request for Information seeking insight from stakeholders regarding the responsible development and use of chemical and biological (chem-bio) AI models.”

“Input from a broad range of experts in this field will help the U.S. AISI to develop well-informed approaches to assess and mitigate the potential risks of chem-bio AI models, while enabling safe and responsible innovation.”

“Respondents are encouraged to provide concrete examples, best practices, case studies, and actionable recommendations where possible. The full RFI can be found here.”

“The comment period is now open and will close on December 3, 2024, at 11:59PM Eastern Time. Comments can be submitted online at www.regulations.gov, under docket no. 240920-0247.”

Pandora Report 11.1.2024

by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report discusses the WHO’s activation of the Global Health Emergency Corps, updates on H5N1 in the United States, a reported Lassa fever death in Iowa, and USAID’s recently-launched Strengthening Infectious Disease Detection Systems project.

WHO, Partners Activate Global Health Emergency Corps in Response to Mpox Outbreaks

The WHO and partners, in collaboration with Member States, announced this week the activation of the Global Health Emergency Corps (GHEC) for the first time in response to mpox outbreaks in several countries. The GHEC is a group of professionals whose goal is to strengthen response to health emergencies. It also functions as a collaboration platform for countries and emergency health networks. The WHO explained in a press release that, “In collaboration with the International Association of National Public Health Institutes, GHEC is assessing the emergency workforce capacities in 8 countries affected by the mpox outbreak, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi, the two most affected countries. The assessment has so far identified 22 areas that need strengthening, including epidemiology and surveillance, laboratory capacities, infection prevention and control, risk communication and community engagement. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Health Cluster partners have joined in strengthening the coordination set up by the Ministry of Health under the leadership of the public health emergency operations centre.”

H5N1 Updates

US Detects H5N1 in Backyard Swine

H5N1 infection in a pig on an Oregon backyard farm was confirmed this week, the US Department of Agriculture announced on Wednesday. The farm does have a mix of poultry and livestock, so the infected pig did share an environment with poultry, including water sources, housing, and equipment. Because the detection was found on a small farm, the USDA says risk to the nation’s pork supply and to the general public is low.

In addition to concerns about impact on farming and the food supply, this is concerning because pigs can be a mixing vessel for zoonotic and human influenza viruses as they are susceptible to avian, swine, and human influenza A viruses (IAV). Notably, the novel IAV that caused the 2009 H1N1 pandemic included two separate segments from the H1N1 swine virus lineage. However, it is unknown whether the animal had a systemic infection or if contamination caused positive nasal swab results.

NIAID: “Bovine H5N1 Influenza from Infected Worker Transmissible and Lethal in Animal Models”

“A highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus, isolated from the eye of a farm worker who became infected through contact with dairy cows, was lethal in mice and ferrets infected in a high-containment laboratory environment, according to a new study in Nature. The study investigators also found that the virus isolated from the worker, who experienced mild inflammation of the cornea (conjunctivitis), could be transmitted through the air between separated ferrets and might be capable of binding to and replicating in human respiratory tract cells.”

Read more here.

Further Reading:

Lassa Fever Death Reported in Iowa

This week, the Iowa Department of Health and Human Services announced a fatal imported case of Lassa fever. The deceased woman, a middle-aged resident of eastern Iowa, had recently returned from a trip to West Africa, where she is thought to have contracted the disease. There have been just eight travel-associated cases of Lassa fever in the United States in the last 55 years, and about 80% of those that contract this illness will have mild or no symptoms. Cases most often are reported in Nigeria, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Ghana, where there are up to 500,000 cases and 5,000 deaths annually.

USAID Announces Strengthening Infectious Disease Detection Systems Project

The United States Agency for International Development announced this week a new project aimed at strengthening the capacity of the United States’ and partner countries to “prevent, detect, and respond to the increasing occurrence and severity of epidemics, pandemics, and novel infectious disease threats.” The new project, Strengthening Infectious Disease Detection Systems (STRIDES), will allow USAID to work with partner countries to build more reliable, safe, and secure laboratory and disease surveillance systems. It will also help provide more effective data management and reporting platforms. Read more about STRIDES here.

Responding to Radiological Threats

The risks to nuclear power plants in Ukraine posed by Russia’s military actions has raised the salience of radiological threats. In the most recent issue of CBNW, Mary Sproull (Biodefense PhD ’22), a research scientist in the Radiation Oncology Branch of the National Cancer Institute at the National Institutes of Health. explores the potential of biodosimetry as an essential medical countermeasure in the management of radiation injuries. As the initial step in medical management of any exposure is to determine whether radiation exposure has occurred and subsequently differentiate the degree of exposure, particular attention has been focused on research and development of biodosimetry diagnostics, to firstly alleviate the logistical problem of the worried well, and secondly to enable more efficient radiation-specific medical triage.  Her article, “MCMs for Radiation Exposure: The Importance of Biodosimetry Diagnostics,” can be accessed here.

“Schar School’s Mahmut Cengiz: On the Frontlines of Global Security and Terrorism”

“Mahmut Cengiz’s first exposure to the brutal realities of transnational organized crime, terrorism, and illicit economies was in films he saw as a young man growing up in Türkiye. But these were not abstract horrors: They were living nightmares, unfolding in real time. The images of suffering and devastation seared themselves into his mind, igniting a fire in him to fight back.”

Read more in The George.

“100 Days to Save Eight Million Lives”

In this piece, CEPI discusses the implications of modelling research recently published in The Lancet Global Health which found that “…a successful 100 Days Mission in response to COVID-19’s emergence would have had by far its greatest impact on the lives and livelihoods of people in the Global South – preventing 800 million COVID-19 infections, averting 15.7 million COVID-19 hospitalisations and saving 4.8 million lives in lower middle-income countries.”

The researchers estimate that the 8.3 million lives saved would represent monetary savings as high as $14.3 trillion. They further estimate that productivity losses due to illness totaling nearly $1.4 trillion and $63 billion in hospitalization costs could have been averted globally. CEPI CEO Dr. Richard Hatchett says the findings should supercharge global commitments to the 100 Days Mission of his organization.

“Animal-to-Human Viral Leap Sparked Deadly Marburg Outbreak”

Max Kozlov breaks down yet-to-be-published research on Rwanda’s Marburg outbreak that indicates it was caused by a single jump of the virus from an animal to humans in this Nature News article, explaining it part “To help inform outbreak control, researchers at the Rwanda Biomedical Centre in Kigali sequenced the Marburg virus genome of several infected people. They found that all samples closely resembled one another, suggesting that the virus spread rapidly in a short period of time and that they shared a common origin. They also found that the virus strain is closely related to one detected in Uganda in 2014 and to one found in bats in 2009, Yvan Butera, Rwanda’s minister of state for health, who co-led the research, tells Nature.”

“Optimizing Federal, State, and Local Responses to Public Health Emergencies: Lessons from COVID, Proceedings of a Workshop–in Brief”

From NASEM: “The COVID-19 pandemic raised challenging legal and policy issues – as reflected in numerous, often inconsistent, health-related decisions made in the United States at the national, state, and local level and in COVID-related judicial opinions issued after the onset of the pandemic. The response to the pandemic provides an opportunity to consider whether federal, state, and local governments had the necessary authority to deal with the crisis, how authority was applied, whether there was sufficient clarity as to responsibility, and what should be changed for the future.”

“On May 30-31, 2024, an ad hoc committee under the auspices of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Committee on Science, Technology, and Law convened a virtual workshop to examine the allocation of responsibility among levels of government when dealing with a public health crisis; the extent to which federal, state, and local governments have the necessary authority to act; whether there is sufficient clarity as to which levels of government are responsible for particular actions; and lessons that can be learned from the pandemic to inform government responses to pandemics in the future.”

Read the proceedings here.

“Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment”

From the RAND Corporation: “Global catastrophic and existential risks hold the potential to threaten human civilization. Addressing these risks is crucial for ensuring humans’ long-term survival and flourishing. Motivated by the gravity of these risks, Congress passed the Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act in 2022, which requires that the Secretary of Homeland Security and the administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency coordinate an assessment of global catastrophic risk related to a set of threats and hazards. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate and the Federal Emergency Management Agency requested the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center’s support in meeting this requirement. The authors of this report document findings from the resulting analysis.”

“This report summarizes what is known about the risks associated with six threats and hazards: artificial intelligence; asteroid and comet impacts; sudden and severe changes to Earth’s climate; nuclear war; severe pandemics, whether resulting from naturally occurring events or from synthetic biology; and supervolcanoes.”

“The risk summaries cover the following aspects: where feasible, estimates of the likelihood and potential consequences of each risk; factors causing the risk and associated uncertainties; and whether the risk is likely to change in the next decade.”

“Because the broader goal of the Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act is to reduce risk to human civilization, the authors also identified known and potential mitigation strategies for the six threats and hazards and drew insights from the assessment relevant to managing the risks they pose to society.”

“Global Health Security Lessons from the U.S. Biodefense Response”

Sunny Jha and Robert Carter III discuss USAMRIID’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and how it demonstrates the important of collaboration between the military, public health, and private-sector during such situations in this Think Global Health piece. They write in part, “One of the most striking aspects of the U.S. Department of Defense’s (DOD) response to COVID-19 was the rapid mobilization of scientific expertise and infrastructure across various military research institutions, including USAMRIID. In early 2020, as the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread globally, DOD laboratories, including USAMRIID, quickly adapted their existing facilities and research protocols to focus on understanding the novel coronavirus. High-containment laboratories, such as Biosafety Level 3 (BSL-3) and Biosafety Level 4 (BSL-4) facilities, were repurposed across the DOD to analyze the structure and behavior of SARS-CoV-2. This rapid pivot was made possible by the combined readiness of military and defense assets, ensuring a coordinated and efficient response to the emerging crisis.”

“Assessing the DoD’s Chemical and Biological Defense Program”

Al Mauroni discusses DOD’s CBD program’s evolution and challenges in this post on his Substack, Nuclear Weapons (and other WMD). He writes in part, “Things have changed radically over the past four years, and the rhetoric about COVID as a “biological threat” was a big factor in that change. The ASD office has increasingly used the claim of “other national security priorities” and “global health security” to move funds from service-validated programs to pet projects that they feel are justified as addressing “chemical and biological threats.” You can see this outlined in the OSD comptroller budget materials. They’re not hiding it at all.”

“Russia’s Upgraded Military Biological Research Facility and the Link to Bioweapons Disinformation in Ukraine”

This policy brief from GP WMD Counter Disinfo discusses recent reporting on Sergiev Posad-6: “Using satellite images from 2022 to the present day, Washington Post journalists recently documented evidence of what appears to be significant upgrades to Russia’s military biological facility at Sergiev Posad-6 near Moscow, with enhancements and enlargements to its high-containment facility, used to work on dangerous pathogens, and the expansion of the linked civilian site where scientists are housed.”

“The construction of this facility appeared to begin in May 2022 and coincided with an increase in biological weapons-related disinformation from Russia focused on Ukraine and its Western Allies, including false narratives around legitimate public health and biological research facilities. This briefing note explores this connection in more detail.”

“That 800-Year-Old Corpse in the Well? Early Biological Warfare”

Franz Lidz discusses the Well Man and how recent research has shed light on how he wound up in the well at Norway’s Sverresborg Castle: “In the dying days of the 12th century, with Norway in the grip of civil wars, the Baglers, a faction aligned with the archbishop, laid siege to Sverresborg, the castle stronghold of King Sverre Sigurdsson. The monarch was away, so the besiegers pillaged the castle, burned down houses and poisoned the water supply by heaving the corpse of one of the king’s men headfirst down the well and filling the shaft with stones.”

“This early biological warfare is recorded in “Sverris Saga,” a contemporaneous biography of the king, who reigned over much of Norway from 1184 to 1202. Scholars have long debated the chronicle’s reliability as a historical document, but a study published Friday in the journal iScience recounts how researchers unearthed the body of the “Well Man” and, with the help of ancient DNA, have provided fresh details about who he was.”

Read more here.

“Was Stone Age Scandinavia Struck by Plague?”

In this New York Times article, Franz Lidz discusses recent genetics research that points to a plague outbreak in Scandinavia more than 5,000 years ago, driving the Neolithic decline. Lidz explains in part, “A new genomic study published in July in the journal Nature makes the case for another candidate, which had been found in people living at the time but was never thought to have been widespread: the plague…Until now, it was unclear how virulent the Neolithic plague was within a human population. “There is a hypothesis that the oldest plague bacterium lacked epidemic potential,” said Dr. Seersholm, the lead author of the paper. “That hypothesis no longer holds.”’

ICYMI-“Lessons from History: A Conversation with Author John M. Barry”

“On Monday, October 28, a public seminar at the Brown University School of Public Health explored the history of pandemics and the lessons that apply to us today. The event featured a discussion with Brown alumnus John M. Barry ’68, author of The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History, which received the Outstanding Book on Science and Medicine for 2004 by the National Academies of Sciences.”

Read more about this seminar here.

NEW: “Preparing for the Next Outbreak: Designing Closer Collaboration between Healthcare and Public Health to Deploy Pathogen-Agnostic Testing as an Early Warning System”

From PNNL: “Please join us in welcoming Dr. Adi V. Gundlapalli, Senior Advisor for Data Readiness and Response in the Office of Public Health Data, Surveillance, and Technology at the CDC for his talk titled “Preparing for the Next Outbreak: Designing Closer Collaboration between Healthcare and Public Health to Deploy Pathogen-Agnostic Testing as an Early Warning System”. This webinar will take place Wednesday, November 13th, at noon PT.”

Learn more and register here.

NEW: Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools

From NTI: “Join us for a virtual webinar releasing the findings of NTI | bio’s new report, Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools, followed by a moderated discussion and Q+A with distinguished guest Claire Quereshi.”

“Artificial intelligence (AI) promises to revolutionize not only aspects of daily life but cutting-edge scientific research and development. Within the life sciences, AI biodesign tools (BDTs) have improved significantly in their ability to design biological molecules and make predictions about living systems, displaying potential for beneficial applications and posing significant potential risks if misused.”

This virtual event will take place on November 14 at 11 am EST. Learn more and register here.

NEW: Health Security Intelligence: Managing Threats Risks and Hazards Post-Covid 19
“As  the acute impact of the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, many unaddressed questions remain for Australia about how to better prepare for the next likely health threat, risk or hazard.”

“In addition to how we enhance national public health capacity, what are the important lessons we can learn from the pandemic from national security and biosecurity perspectives?”

“Given the likelihood of another pandemic at some point, an increasingly uncertain geo-political order and the potential exploitation of biotechnology by bad actors how does Australia and its allies better prepare for a future of increasingly complex health security and biological security threats, risks and hazards?”

“This event is for all health security intelligence stakeholders (policy-makers, national security staff, scientists, researchers and clinicians) who work across the one health continuum and national security agencies.”

“It will introduce participants to Charles Sturt’s extensive research agenda across the one health biosecurity, health and biological security and discuss both their national security and scientific implications.  You will hear briefings from key researchers across both STEM and social sciences disciplines working on assessing key health security threats, risks and hazards relevant to your work.”

This event will take place in-person and over livestream on December 4 from 2-4 pm AEDT. Learn more and register here.

Vision for Health Forum

From Johns Hopkins: We hope you can join us in November for the Vision for Health Forum with collaboration between Johns Hopkins Howard County Medical Center and Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. 

Panel Discussion 
Moderator:  
M. Shafeeq Ahmed, M.D., MBA, F.A.C.O.G
President, Johns Hopkins Howard County Medical Center

Topic: Partnership between JHHCMC and APL
Jeanette Nazarian, M.D., Vice President, Medical Affairs and Chief Medical Officer- Johns Hopkins Howard County Medical Center 

Topic: Revolutionizing Health through Science and Engineering
Sheri Lewis, MPH, Deputy Mission Area Executive, Global Health -Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab 

Topic: APL-HCMC Partnership for Project Firstline: Safeguarding Our Nation’s Frontline Healthcare Workers
Lucy Carruth, Ph.D, Assistant Program Manager- Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab 
Brian Damit, Ph.D, Project Manager- Johns Hopkins Applied Physic Lab 

This event will take place at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory on November 4 at 4:30 pm EST. Learn more here.

13th Annual Jonathan Tucker Symposium

“The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies cordially invites you to the 13th annual Jonathan Tucker Symposium on chemical and biological weapons issues on November 13th and 14th, 2024.”

Among this year’s speakers are Dr. Yong-Bee Lim, an alumnus of the Biodefense PhD Program and Deputy Director of the Converging Risks Lab and Biosecurity Projects Manager at the Council on Strategic Risks, who will give a talk titled “Technology Democratization and its Implications for CBW Safety and Security: Lessons Learned from Engagement with Non-Traditional Communities.”

Learn more and register here.

One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 Book Launch

The Writer’s Center is hosting a book launch for Dr. Laura Kahn’s new book, One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 (blurb below) on November 23 at 2 pm EST in Bethesda, MD. Learn more and RSVP here.

“One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 unpacks the mysteries of COVID-19’s origins to impart important lessons for future outbreaks. The One Health concept recognizes the interconnected links among the health of humans, animals, plants, and the environment. By comparing the history, science, and clinical presentations of three different coronaviruses—SARS-CoV-1, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)—Kahn uncovers insights with important repercussions for how to prepare and avoid future pandemics. The One Health approach provides a useful framework for examining the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the origins of this zoonotic disease requires investigating the environmental and molecular biological factors that allowed the virus to spread to humans. The book explores the many ways in which the wild animal trade, wet markets, and the camel industry contributed to the spread of the earlier SARS-CoV-1 and MERS coronaviruses. For SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), Kahn examines the biosafety, biosecurity, and bioethics implications of gain-of-function research on pandemic potential pathogens. This book is a must read to understand the geopolitics of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

2024 CBD S&T Conference

From DTRA: “The CBD S&T Conference brings together the most innovative and influential chemical and biological defense community members from around the globe to share insights and collaborate on the emerging chem-bio threats of tomorrow.”

“Join the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA) Chemical and Biological Technologies Department in its role as the Joint Science and Technology Office (JSTO) for Chemical and Biological Defense, an integral component of the Chemical and Biological Defense Program, as we Focus Forward to uncover novel concepts and examine groundbreaking discoveries within the chem-bio defense landscape.”

“The 2024 CBD S&T Conference will be held at the Broward County Convention Center, December 2–5, 2024.”

Learn more and register here.

US AI Safety Institute Issues RFI on Responsible Development of Chem-Bio Models

From AISI: “The U.S. Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute (U.S. AISI), housed within the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), released a Request for Information seeking insight from stakeholders regarding the responsible development and use of chemical and biological (chem-bio) AI models.”

“Input from a broad range of experts in this field will help the U.S. AISI to develop well-informed approaches to assess and mitigate the potential risks of chem-bio AI models, while enabling safe and responsible innovation.”

“Respondents are encouraged to provide concrete examples, best practices, case studies, and actionable recommendations where possible. The full RFI can be found here.”

“The comment period is now open and will close on December 3, 2024, at 11:59PM Eastern Time. Comments can be submitted online at www.regulations.gov, under docket no. 240920-0247.”

Pandora Report 8.16.2024

by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report discusses the recent mpox PHEIC declaration, updates on H5N1, and more.

World Health Organization Declares Mpox PHEIC

Mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) is a viral illness caused by the monkeypox virus, which is part of the genus Orthopoxvirus. Two clades exist (clade I and clade II). Clade IIb caused a global outbreak of mpox in 2022-23 that also resulted in a PHEIC (public health emergency of international concern) declaration. Now, the WHO has declared an outbreak of clade I mpox a PHEIC as case counts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighboring countries swell. 548 people have been killed by the disease in 2024, according to the DRC government.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus made the declaration “on the advice of an IHR Emergency Committee of independent experts who met earlier in the day to review data presented by experts from WHO and affected countries. The Committee informed the Director-General that it considers the upsurge of mpox to be a PHEIC, with potential to spread further across countries in Africa and possibly outside the continent.”

Tedros said in a statement, “The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are very worrying. On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”

According to WHO “The monkeypox virus was discovered in Denmark (1958) in monkeys kept for research and the first reported human case of mpox was a nine-month-old boy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC, 1970). Mpox can spread from person to person or occasionally from animals to people. Following eradication of smallpox in 1980 and the end of smallpox vaccination worldwide, mpox steadily emerged in central, east and west Africa.”

Image Credit: CDC PHIL| “This is a colorized transmission electron microscopic image of mpox virus particles (purple), which were found within an infected cell (brown), having been cultured in the laboratory. The image was captured and color-enhanced at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), Integrated Research Facility (IRF), located in Fort Detrick, Maryland.”

Sweden Reports First Clade I Case Outside Africa, ECDC Raises Risk Alert Level

The Public Health Agency of Sweden reported on Thursday that the country has recorded the first case of mpox caused by clade I outside of Africa. Health and Social Affairs Minister Jakob Forssmed said in a news conference, “We have now also during the afternoon had confirmation that we have one case in Sweden of the more grave type of mpox, the one called clade 1.” State Epidemiologist Masnus Gisslen said in an official statement that the patient was infected while visiting “the part of Africa where there is a major outbreak of mpox clade 1.”

Following Sweden’s announcement, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) raised its risk level for mpox from ‘low’ to ‘moderate,’ for sporadic cases appearing in the EU. The agency also asked countries to maintain high levels of awareness regarding those traveling from affected areas. The ECDC says the overall risk to the EU population has gone up from “very low” to “low” and that it expects there will be more imported cases in the coming weeks.

United States Announces Further $424 Million in Assistance for the DRC

This week the US, through the United States Agency for International Development, announced “…nearly $424 million in humanitarian and health assistance to address the ongoing catastrophe in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). This includes $414 million in humanitarian assistance to support people experiencing persistent humanitarian needs resulting from conflict and displacement. This announcement, made in Kinshasa by the U.S. Ambassador to the DRC Lucy Tamlyn and U.S. Representative to the United Nations Agencies for Food and Agriculture Jeffrey Prescott, also includes an additional $10 million in health assistance to respond to the current mpox outbreak in the DRC and in other affected countries in the region. USAID is also donating 50,000 mpox vaccines to the DRC, which is the country most impacted by this outbreak.”

The statement later explained that “The United States is the largest provider of humanitarian assistance to the DRC and the largest bilateral donor to DRC’s health sector. This Fiscal Year, the U.S. provided more than $256 million in health assistance through bilateral programs including the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI), and the Global Health Security program, which enabled more than seven million people to receive lifesaving treatment for diseases including TB, HIV, and malaria.”

European Commission Coordinates Procurement and Donation of 215,000 Bavarian Nordic Doses to Africa CDC

The European Commission’s Health Emergency Preparedness and Respons Authority (HERA) announced on Wednesday that it “will procure and donate 175,420 doses of the MVA-BN® vaccine, the only FDA and EMA-approved mpox vaccine, as an immediate response to the mpox outbreak in Africa. In addition, the pharmaceutical company Bavarian Nordic will donate 40,000 doses to HERA. The Africa CDC will distribute the vaccines according to regional needs.”

The announcement came in response to Africa CDC’s call for the international community to assist in mobilizing two million vaccines to stop this outbreak. The Commission said in its statement that “Through the Africa CDC, these vaccines will be distributed to affected countries. Furthermore, HERA is in collaboration with the Africa CDC with the aim to expand access to mpox diagnostics and sequencing in the region, with a €3.5 million grant foreseen for early autumn.”

Bavarian Nordic Wins $157 Million Contract to Replenish US JYNNEOS Vaccine Supply

The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) has reached an agreement with the Danish company Bavarian Nordic to “partly replenish” its stockpile of JYNNEOS vaccine following the 2022 mpox outbreak. This $156.8 million deal follows a similar one made last year by the US government totaling $120 million.

Further Reading

H5N1 Threat Persists but Remains Low

Despite the renewed focus on mpox, concern still remains about the spread of avian influenza globally, particularly H5N1, which has infected thirteen farmworkers in the United States so far this year. Despite the relatively low risk, Seqirus has begun producing and storing doses of its new vaccine targeting H5N1 in its facility outside of Raleigh, NC. In total, the company has agreed to produce 4.8 million doses in exchange for $22 million from the federal government. The government has also given Moderna $176 million to develop mRNA vaccines for influenza, including H5N1.

The CDC explained in a recent summary about its Influenza Risk Assessment Tool that “The current overall individual and population health risk to the general public posed by the avian influenza A(H5N1) virus presently spreading in cows, poultry, and other mammals remains low. Systematic comparisons of data related to this avian influenza A(H5N1) virus using the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) to data from other influenza A viruses has scored this virus’s future pandemic potential as “moderate risk” based on information through June 26, 2024. This is similar to previous assessments of earlier avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses.”

Furthermore, the WHO released an updated assessment on recent H5N1 events in collaboration with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Organisation for Animal Health. The assessment found that “At the present time, based on available information, FAO-WHO-WOAH assess the global public health risk of influenza A(H5N1) viruses to be low, while the risk of infection for occupationally exposed persons is low to moderate depending on the risk mitigation measures in place. Transmission between animals continues to occur and, to date, a limited number of human infections have been reported. Although additional human infections associated with exposure to infected animals or contaminated environments are likely to continue to occur, the overall public health impact of such infections at a global level is minor.”

DOD, NNSA Inaugurate New Supercomputing System Dedicated to Biological Defense

Earlier this month, the Department of Defense (DOD) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) announced a new supercomputing system that is dedicated to biological defense at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. According to DOD, the Department “…is working with NNSA to significantly increase the computing capability available to our national biodefense programs. The collaboration has enabled expanding systems of the same system architecture as LLNL’s upcoming exascale supercomputer, El Capitan, which is projected to be the world’s most powerful supercomputer when it becomes operational later this year.”

“The biodefense-focused system will provide unique capabilities for large-scale simulation and AI-based modeling for a variety of defensive activities, including bio surveillance, threat characterization, advanced materials development, and accelerated medical countermeasures. DoD and NNSA intend to allow the U.S. Government interagency, International Allies and partners, and academia and industry to access the supercomputing capability.”

Learn more here.

Schumer Pledges to Block Any Senate Effort to Significantly Cut CDC Budget

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told The Associated Press this week that he would block any legislation from passing the Senate that proposes significant cuts to the budget of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Schumer further said that such cuts “would wreak havoc and chaos on food safety funding mechanisms and tracking operations at a core level.” As the AP explains, “Democrats said the proposal in a House bill includes a reduction of the CDC’s proposed budget by $1.8 billion, or about 22%, that would harm public health. The Republican-led effort also would mean a major cut in programs designed to address firearm injuries and opioid overdose prevention.”

The House Appropriations Committee passed the measure on a party-line vote last month.

“AIxBio: Opportunities to Strengthen Health Security”

Aurelia Attal-Juncqua, Anita Cicero, Alex Zhu, and Thomas Inglesby recently authored this published this preprint on SSRN: “Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to revolutionize biosecurity, health security, biodefense, and pandemic preparedness by offering groundbreaking solutions for managing biological threats. This landscape review explores recent advancements in AI across these fields, drawing from both grey literature and peer-reviewed studies published between January 2019 and February 2024. AI has demonstrated potential in predicting viral mutations, which could enable earlier detection of outbreaks, and streamlining resource allocation by analyzing diverse data sources. It could also play a crucial role in accelerating the development and deployment of medical countermeasures, such as vaccines and therapeutics. Additionally, use of AI may enhance laboratory automation, reducing human error and increasing biosafety. Despite these promising advancements, significant challenges and risks related to the potential misuse of AI, data security, and privacy concerns necessitate careful implementation and robust governance. This paper highlights the rapid progress and vast potential of AI in biosecurity, and provides key recommendations for U.S. policymakers to effectively harness AI’s capabilities while ensuring safety and security. These recommendations include expanding access to advanced computing resources, fostering collaboration across sectors, and establishing clear regulatory frameworks to support the safe and ethical deployment of AI technologies.”

“Emerging Biosecurity Threats in the Age of AI”

Suryesh K Namdeo and Pawan Dhar recently published this piece with IndiaBioscience: “As artificial intelligence (AI) enables the transformation of biology into an engineering discipline, an effective governance model that uses threat forecasting, real-time evaluation, and response strategies is urgently needed to address accidental or deliberate misuse. This article talks about the risks at the interface of AI and biosecurity and what could India do to better prepare for potential AI-biorisks.”

“2023 Biorisks, Biosecurity and Biological Disarmament Conference Report”

From UNIDIR: “To facilitate multi-stakeholder engagement around biological risks, biological security and biological disarmament, the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) co-organized a stakeholder conference designed to bring together actors from civil society, academia and industry, as well as diplomats, to stimulate the exchange of ideas and thinking around how to build biosecurity and bolster biological disarmament.”

“The Biorisks, Biosecurity and Biological Disarmament Conference took place in Geneva, Switzerland, on 4–5 July 2023. The event provided an opportunity to discuss ongoing diplomatic processes and current and upcoming issues in the areas of biorisk, biosecurity and biological disarmament.”

“More than 80 individuals from 30 countries, representing 60 institutions, participated in the discussion in person, and a further 334 individuals joined the discussion virtually from around the world. The participants included diplomats, public health professionals, security experts and scientists from a wide range of organizations.”

“The Conference consisted of seven substantive panels, which explored a range of topics, centred on advances in science and technology and their related risks and benefits, biosecurity implementation, dual-use governance, disease response, international cooperation, and verification technologies. The discussions that took place during all seven panels are summarized in this conference report.”

“Launching the Global Biosecurity Accelerator at the Helsinki Biosecurity Dialogue”

Christopher East covers the launch of the Global Biosecurity Accelerator in this post from the Council on Strategic Risks, writing in part “This is a core driver of why CSR launched the Global Biosecurity Accelerator, of which the Helsinki Biosecurity Dialogue was the first multinational convening. The Global Biosecurity Accelerator’s mission is to accelerate global resilience to the full spectrum of biological threats— natural, accidental, or deliberate. In addition to promoting strong biosecurity strategies across nations, Accelerator events will raise insights from the range of actions that nations take—from enhancing biodefense, to embedding biosecurity in a whole-of-society approach, to One Health initiatives. Designed with interoperability and depth of defense in mind, CSR aims for the Global Biosecurity Accelerator to help jumpstart a ‘whole-of-globe’ approach to resilience against biological threats.”

“Russian Influence in Eastern Europe is Aggravating HIV Epidemic, Say Experts”

The Guardian‘s Kat Lay discusses the role of Russian propaganda in deterring people in eastern Europe from accessing necessary healthcare as AIDS deaths are up 34% compared to 2010. Lay writes in part, “Efforts to improve treatment and prevent infections are being hampered by Russian-linked propaganda against targets including opioid replacement therapy services, which reduce the risk of HIV infection among people using drugs, and the LGBTQ+ community…Meanwhile, “foreign agent” laws in a number of countries, following a pattern established in Russia, require charities and organisations receiving overseas funding to register and impose onerous reporting requirements. This has forced some charities to withdraw, a media briefing at the 25th international Aids conference was told.”

“Ebola: Ten Years Later – Lessons Learned and Future Pandemic Preparedness”

Krutika Kuppalli recently authored this post for PLOS Global Public Health‘s Speaking of Medicine and Health blog, writing in part “In early December 2013, a 2-year-old boy in the remote village of Meliandou, Guinea fell ill with a mysterious disease and succumbed to the illness a few days later.1 The disease spread rapidly, resulting in 49 cases and 29 deaths before being identified as the Zaire strain of the Ebola virus and officially declared an outbreak on March 23, 2014.2 Over the ensuing months, the outbreak spread to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone, with cases also emerging in Senegal, Nigeria, Mali, the United States and Europe.3 On August 8, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), the highest global health alert, signifying the outbreak posed a public health risk to other Member States and necessitated a coordinated international response.4 Despite global efforts to control the outbreak, it lasted for over two years, resulting in over 28,000 cases and more than 11,000 deaths by the time it was declared over on June 9, 2016.3 This crisis exposed significant weaknesses in global health systems, prompting a re-evaluation of pandemic preparedness and response strategies. A decade later, it is essential to reflect on the lessons learned from the West Africa Ebola crisis and their impact on current and future pandemic preparedness efforts. These lessons are outlined using the Health Emergency Preparedness and Response (HEPR) architecture developed by WHO, focusing on strengthening five core health emergency components: collaborative surveillance, safe and scalable care, community protection, access to countermeasures, and emergency coordination.”

“Déjà Vu All Over Again — Refusing to Learn the Lessons of Covid-19”

Michael S. Sinha, Wendy E. Parmet, and Gregg S. Gonsalves recently published this perspective piece in the New England Journal of Medicine, in which they explain “The spread of H5N1 avian influenza among cattle and other farm animals as well as to agricultural workers in the United States has raised concerns about the potential for an influenza pandemic. Although the threat of pandemic H5N1 doesn’t appear to be imminent — this variant has yet to show the potential to be transmitted from human to human — the federal government’s initial response suggests that, rather than heeding the lessons from Covid-19, elected officials and other key decision makers may be relying on a dangerous type of revisionism that could lead to more deaths, should H5N1 cause a pandemic.”

“The World Is Not Ready for the Next Pandemic”

Michael Osterholm and Mark Olshaker call for greater government investment in new and better vaccines in this Foreign Affairs article: “It is impossible to know when a new pandemic will arise, or which specific pathogen will be its cause. H5N1 is just one of the viruses that could mutate into something that will start a pandemic. But eventually, one will happen. It is therefore time to move away from vague recommendations and best practices to a far larger-scale program aimed at producing new and better vaccines, antiviral drugs and other countermeasures, and building the infrastructure at the scale needed to protect entire populations. Although such efforts will be costly, failing to take these steps could be catastrophic.”

NEW: AI and the Evolution of Biological National Security Risks

“In the wake of a global pandemic and rapidly advancing AI technologies, scientists and government leaders from around the world have sounded alarms about a changing biothreat landscape. Between dire warnings of more widely accessible bioterrorism capabilities, novel superviruses, and next generation bioweapons, how should policymakers and weigh the impacts of AI on biosecurity? Where are risks really changing, and where have they been overblown? What actions need to be taken now, and what emerging capabilities need to be monitored for future threats?”

“Please join the Center for a New American Security on Wednesday, August 21, from 10:30–11:30 a.m. ET for a panel discussion on these questions and more. Bill Drexel, Fellow in CNAS’s Technology and National Security Team, will be joined by leading biosecurity experts inside and outside government grappling with the nexus of AI and emerging biotechnologies.”

“This panel is part of CNAS’s AI Safety and Stability project, which aims to better understand AI risks and identify specific steps to improve AI safety and stability in national security applications. The event will build upon the project’s new report, AI and the Evolution of Biological National Security Risks: Capabilities, Thresholds, and Interventions in which Bill Drexel and Caleb Withers provide a clear-eyed overview of the emerging effects of AI on the biothreat landscape and propose actionable solutions to avoid the worst outcomes.”

This panel will feature Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley, Associate Professor and Deputy Director of George Mason’s Biodefense Graduate Program, who reviewed and provided interviews to the report’s authors.

NEW-Safeguarding the Food Supply: Integrating Diverse Risks, Connecting with Consumers, and Protecting Vulnerable Populations – A Workshop

From the National Academies: “On September 4-5, the Food Forum will host a workshop that explores the state of the science around hazard- and risk-based approaches to safeguarding both domestic and global food systems. Workshop presenters will examine nutrition, economic, and equity implications in food safety decision-making, and considerations and strategies for communicating hazard and risk across sectors. The workshop will also include national and international perspectives on risk assessment and tools to mitigate risk, as well as opportunities for the future of risk management and assessment, food safety, and public health.”

Learn more and register for this virtual event here.

Assessing and Navigating Biosecurity Concerns and Benefits of Artificial Intelligence Use in the Life Sciences – August Information Gathering Meeting
From the National Academies: “This is the first in-person meeting of the consensus study, Assessing and Navigating Biosecurity Concerns and Benefits of Artificial Intelligence Use in the Life Sciences. The open session of this information gathering meeting will include initial briefings containing information relevant to study issues. The committee will also meet in closed session for project planning and review of topics and speakers for remaining meetings.”

This event will take place on August 13 and 14. Learn more and register here.

Call for Experts-Enhancing the Resilience of Healthcare and Public Health Critical Infrastructure

From the National Academies: The National Academies Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Disasters and Emergencies is seeking experts to participate in an upcoming workshop that will examine strategies, policies, and innovative actions to improve the resilience of health care and public health critical infrastructure to impacts from disasters and other emergencies.

Approximately 8-10 volunteer experts are needed to serve on the workshop planning committee. Expertise in the following areas is desired:

  • Healthcare operations and management
  • Public health, emergency management, and environmental health
  • IT, data science, and cybersecurity
  • Infrastructure systems, engineering, and supply chain
  • Risk assessment and mitigation
  • Insurances, cost management, and health economics
  • Community resilience and lived experience
  • Public policy

We are also collecting information for potential speakers, participants, and peer reviewers for any publications resulting from the activity.

Please submit nominations by August 23, 2024. For any additional questions regarding the workshop, please view the project page or email Shalini Singaravelu at SSingaravelu@nas.edu.

Learn more and submit nominations here.

Call for Experts-Potential Research Priorities to Inform Readiness and Response to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1): A Workshop

From the National Academies: The National Academies is seeking suggestions for experts to participate in a new workshop exploring research priorities to inform readiness and response to the ongoing Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) A (H5N1) outbreak in the United States. Recognizing the interconnection between people, animals, and their shared environment, the workshop will take a One Health approach to bring together federal government agencies, the academic community, and the private sector, as well as other relevant stakeholders across the health, agriculture, and food safety sectors and will focus primarily on basic science and research questions of specific concern. 

Approximately 8-10 volunteer experts are needed to build a committee for a future workshop and any publications resulting from this activity. Expertise in the following areas is desired:

  • One Health and emerging infectious diseases
  • National, state, and/or local public health and medical readiness and response
  • Epidemiology and surveillance
  • Medical countermeasures (diagnostics, vaccines, therapeutics)
  • Agricultural and veterinary health and sciences
  • Food safety
  • Social sciences, risk communication, and community engagement
  • Modeling, risk assessment, and strategic foresight
  • Regulatory issues

Please submit nominations by August 30, 2024. For any additional questions regarding the forum, please view the project page or email Shalini Singaravelu at SSingaravelu@nas.edu.

Learn more and submit nominations here.

Pandora Report 8.9.2024

by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report covers the recently updated priority pathogens list from the World Health Organization (WHO) and insights from the process of its development, the WHO’s plan to distribute polio vaccines in Gaza, recent research that suggests H5N1 is more widespread than previously thought, and more.

WHO Updates List of Most Dangerous Viruses and Bacteria

The WHO recently published a report outlining the findings of its global pathogen prioritization process that involved more than 200 scientists who evaluated evidence related to 28 viral families and one core group of bacteria, covering 1,652 pathogens. This updated priority pathogens list has grown to more than 30 pathogens, now including influenza A virus, monkeypox virus, and dengue virus. The pathogens were selected due to their potential to cause a global public health emergency in humans. According to the WHO report, the process emphasized “the imperative nature of collaborative efforts to attain global resilience against epidemics and pandemics.”

Furthermore, “…the approach used advocates for a scientific framework to enhance preparedness for forthcoming outbreaks, Public Health Emergencies of International Concern (PHEICs), and pandemics by focusing on research of Viral and Bacterial Families, rather than isolated pathogens deemed to present global risks.”

Previous efforts by WHO in 2017 and 2018 identified about a dozen priority pathogens, but it is important to frequently revisit and revise these lists to account for “major global changes in climate change, deforestation, urbanization, international travel, and more,” Neelika Malavige, an immunologist at the University of Sri Jayewardenepura in Colombo, Sri Lanka told Nature.

Furthermore, as Smriti Mallapaty explains in the same Nature news article, the researchers involved with this process also created a list of “prototype pathogens,” “which could act as model species for basic-science studies and the development of therapies and vaccines.” The goal of these is to help encourage more research into under- and less-studied pathogens. Mallapaty writes, “For example, before the COVID-19 pandemic, there were no available human vaccines for any of the coronaviruses, says Malik Peiris, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, who was part of the Coronaviridae research group. Developing vaccines for one member of the family will bring confidence to the scientific community that it is better placed to address a major public-health emergency for those viruses, he says. This applies to treatments, too, he says, because “many antivirals work across a whole group of viruses”.’

WHO Plans to Send 1.2 Million Polio Vaccines to Gaza

The WHO recently announced it plans to send more than one million polio vaccines to Gaza following the detection of poliovirus in wastewater samples. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus explained the situation and his agency’s plan in a piece published by The Guardian, writing in part “Across Gaza, more than 39 000 people have been killed, 89 000 wounded, and more than 10 000 are estimated to be missing. Most hospitals are no longer able to function. Already, diarrhoeal diseases, respiratory infections and hepatitis A, among others, are raging through Gaza. Nearly everyone in Gaza is facing acute food insecurity and catastrophic hunger. Thousands of children are malnourished, making them even more susceptible to disease.”

“About 2.3 million people live in the 365 sq km (141 sq mile) Gaza Strip, which has become even more concentrated amid limited access to clean and safe water, and deteriorating sanitary conditions.”

He continued later, writing “While no cases of polio have been recorded yet, without immediate action, it is just a matter of time before it reaches the thousands of children who have been left unprotected. Children under five years are at risk, and especially infants under two because many have not been vaccinated over the nine months of conflict.”

“The World Health Organization (WHO) is sending more than 1m polio vaccines to Gaza, which will be administered in the coming weeks to prevent children being struck down by the disease. However, without an immediate ceasefire and a vast acceleration of humanitarian aid, including a targeted vaccination campaign focused on young children, people will continue to die from preventable diseases and injuries that are treatable.”

The Director-General later discussed other recent examples of polio thriving in places ravaged by conflict and instability: “In 2017, in wartorn Syria,  an outbreak of variant poliovirus – a mutated form of the wild virus that can spread in under-immunised populations – left 74 children paralysed. In Somalia today, a decade-long civil war has resulted in the longest unbroken chain of variant poliovirus transmission globally, circulating since 2017. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, the last two countries  where children are paralysed by wild polio, humanitarian crises and insecurity have prevented the world from stomping out the virus for good.”

Notably, an outbreak of polio in Ukraine that was detected in October 2021 was declared over in September 2023, again highlighting both the dangerous relationship between conflict and infectious disease as well as the global threat diseases like polio continue to pose.

New Study Suggests H5N1 Cases Are Going Undetected in Humans

A team at the University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) recently published research that “…revealed evidence of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu infections in two Texas farmworkers not previously confirmed to have the disease, and the investigators also cultured infectious H5N1 virus from milk and cattle samples taken from two Texas dairy farms that previously had H5N1 outbreaks.” Their article-“A One Health Investigation into H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus Epizootics on Two Dairy Farms”-is currently available as a preprint.

The team “detected signs of prior bird flu infections in workers from two dairy farms that had outbreaks in Texas earlier this year. They analyzed blood samples from 14 farmworkers who had not been tested for the virus and found antibodies against it in two. This is a nearly 15% hit rate from only two dairy farms out of more than 170 with bird flu outbreaks in 13 states this year,” explains KFF Health News’ Amy Maxmen.

Maxmen further explains, “As bird flu cases go underreported, health officials risk being slow to notice if the virus were to become more contagious. A large surge of infections outside of farmworker communities would trigger the government’s flu surveillance system, but by then it might be too late to contain.”

In a statement to NPR, Gregory Gray (senior author on the paper) said “I am very confident there are more people being infected than we know about…Largely, that’s because our surveillance has been so poor.”

“COVID-19: Lessons Can Help Agencies Better Prepare for Future Emergencies”

This recent report from the Government Accountability Office draws several important lessons learned from the US government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic: “The nation continues to recover from the public health and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, COVID-19 was the tenth leading cause of death in 2023, as compared to being the third leading cause of death in 2020 and 2021. Available data also show that inflation declined between March 2023 and March 2024, but remained higher than pre-pandemic levels.”

“GAO identified lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic that could help federal agencies better prepare for, respond to, and recover from future emergencies. These lessons draw on GAO’s COVID-19 oversight work, which includes 428 recommendations to federal agencies and 24 matters for congressional consideration as of April 2024. Of these recommendations, 220 remain open. Moreover, these recommendations include those related to the three areas GAO added to its High Risk List during the COVID-19 public health emergency:

  1. the Department of Health and Human Services’ leadership and coordination of public health emergencies,
  2. the Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance system, and
  3. the Small Business Administration’s emergency loans to small businesses.”

“Agencies across the government could improve their preparedness for future emergencies by fully implementing GAO’s recommendations.”

“Lessons that could help federal agencies better prepare for future emergencies fall into seven topic areas. These lessons highlight instances where government agencies did well in responding to the pandemic, as well as instances where the government response could have been much better.”

“Yemen: Houthis Obstructing Aid, Exacerbating Cholera”

This piece from Human Rights Watch reports on Houthi obstruction of aid work and information access in Yemen amid a widespread cholera outbreak in the country. It explains that “Yemen’s authorities are obstructing aid work and exacerbating a deadly cholera outbreak that is spreading across the country, Human Rights Watch said today. Parties to the conflict, including the Houthis, the Yemeni government, and the Southern Transitional Council (STC), have obstructed aid and access to information and have failed to take adequate preventative measures to mitigate the spread of cholera. Houthi security forces also have detained and threatened civil society staff, including humanitarian aid workers, in their recent arrest campaign.”

“Data collected by aid agencies indicate that between January 1 and July 19 there have been about 95,000 suspected cholera cases, resulting in at least 258 deaths, according to an individual working with the Yemen Health Cluster, a group of aid organizations, authorities, and donors led by the World Health Organization (WHO). All parties to the conflict should end their violations and abuses of Yemenis’ right to health, and the Houthis should end their arbitrary detentions of civil society and humanitarian aid workers.”

“The Influence of Synthetic Biology on National Bioeconomy Strategies”

Konstantinos Vavitsas discusses policymakers’ perceptions of synthetic biology and the intersection of this with national bioeconomy strategies, writing in part “Perhaps the most highlighted policy actions around synthetic biology revolve around biosecurity. The US Congress appointed the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology (NSCEB), chaired by Ginkgo’s CEO Jason Kelly, with the mission to examine the national security implications of emerging biotechnology. “When people think “biotech” plus “national security,” they usually think “biosecurity.” That’s a deeply important topic, but it’s not the core of our mission,” Caitlin Frazer, Executive Director of NSCEB, told me. “We’re looking at issues like how the military could use emerging biotechnology to fuel, feed, and heal our servicemembers, how we can use biotech to shore up vulnerable supply chains. How can we create economic opportunity in the U.S. through biomanufacturing? And, of course, how we protect against misuse of these powerful technologies by countries that don’t share our values.”’

“Software Tools for Strategic Chemical Trade Control Enforcement: Workshops Spotlight Challenges and Tools”

Christina McAllister and Braden Holt discuss a series of workshops hosted by the Stimson Center’s Partnerships in Proliferation Prevention Program in this piece, explaining in part “Several themes emerged across discussions in both workshops that provided important feedback for the development of tools to support strategic trade controls for chemical weapons nonproliferation. Cost was one – many agreed that national customs offices would benefit from tools, but said they needed to be affordable and accessible. Short timelines available to border and customs officials when performing checks on chemical imports and exports also reinforced the need to utilize systems when shippers submit documents, allowing for early detection of controlled chemicals. Emphasis was also placed on the need for tools to work in a variety of environments, including instances where internet or Wi-Fi is unavailable. There was broad agreement that, taking these concerns under consideration, better access to these tools would strengthen strategic chemical trade control enforcement.”

ICYMI: The Global Pandemic Preparedness Summit 2024

The 2024 Global Pandemic Preparedness Summit was held July 29-30 in Rio de Janeiro. Watch recordings of the proceedings (available in both English and Portuguese) here.

Assessing and Navigating Biosecurity Concerns and Benefits of Artificial Intelligence Use in the Life Sciences – August Information Gathering Meeting
From the National Academies: “This is the first in-person meeting of the consensus study, Assessing and Navigating Biosecurity Concerns and Benefits of Artificial Intelligence Use in the Life Sciences. The open session of this information gathering meeting will include initial briefings containing information relevant to study issues. The committee will also meet in closed session for project planning and review of topics and speakers for remaining meetings.”

This event will take place on August 13 and 14. Learn more and register here.

H5N1: Protecting High Risk Communities

From the Pandemic Center at Brown: “On August 16th at 12:00PM ET the Pandemic Center will host a webinar titled H5N1: Protecting High Risk Communities.”

“As H5N1 has spread among livestock, farm workers have been at increased risk of infection. Though H5N1 cases in the US have so far largely been mild, severe illness is still a possibility. There is an urgent need to protect farm workers from the worst this virus has to offer, but there has been little discussion about how to increase farm workers’ access to lifesaving tools, such as vaccines, tests and treatments. This webinar will discuss H5N1 severity and what strategies we should be using to protect the health and safety of high-risk groups.”

“This event will convene a panel of experts to discuss the current H5N1 vaccine landscape. It will be hosted by Jennifer Nuzzo, Director of the Pandemic Center and Professor of Epidemiology at the Brown University School of Public Health. The panel will include:

Nahid Bhadelia, Founding Director, Boston University Center on Emerging Infectious Diseases (CEID)

Rick Bright, CEO & Founder of Bright Global Health and Former Director of BARDA”

“This webinar is part of the Pandemics & Society series, which focuses on current pandemic threats and response systems as well as how to build preparedness for the future.”

“Please contact pandemic_center@brown.edu with any questions.”

Register here.

Pandora Report 6.14.2024

by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s edition of the Pandora Report covers updates on avian influenza, a recent interim Congressional report on the NIH’s handling of mpox research, a recent report alleging the Department of Defense created an anti-vax misinformation campaign aimed at undermining China’s vaccine diplomacy in the Philippines, and more.

Avian Influenza Updates

USDA: Twenty-Four Companies Are Working to Create Avian Flu Vaccine for Cattle

Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack told Reuters this week that twenty-four companies are currently working to develop an avian flu vaccine for cattle among continued spread among US dairy herds. Furthermore, Vilsack explained that the USDA is also conducting its own preliminary vaccine research at its laboratory in Ames, Iowa. In addition to looking for a vaccine candidate to test for efficacy, the Department is also researching potential respiratory spread of the virus between cows and working to provide support to farmers to improve biosecurity in their facilities.

Vilsack also promised that a pilot program for bulk milk testing will be rolled out “in the very near future.” The program will hopefully expand testing for H5N1 while enabling healthy herds to move across state lines without needing negative tests from every animal. Vilsack says Michigan and Idaho are among the states that have expressed interest in the program.

First Fatal Human Case of H5N2 Confirmed in Mexico

The WHO confirmed last week that a 59-year-old Mexican man died in April a week after developing fever, shortness of breath, and diarrhea. The Mexican Ministry of Health reports that the man had several comorbidities, including chronic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes, and long-standing systemic arterial hypertension. While the National Institute of Respiratory Diseases in Ciudad de México initially said they found a non-subtypeable influenza A virus in respiratory samples from the patient, the Mexico National Influenza Centre confirmed on May 22 that its subtype was H5N2. While Mexico did report an H5N2 outbreak on a backyard poultry farm in the state bordering the man’s state (Michoacan), it is not yet clear how he contracted the virus.

While this case is unrelated to the ongoing spread of H5N1 in the United States, this is the first case of H5N2 confirmed in a human. Furthermore, H5N2 was the primary culprit in a wave of US outbreaks on poultry farms in the mid-2010s. This was just one decade after an outbreak in Texas in 2004 in a chicken flock in Texas marked the first time in two decades that a dangerous-to-poultry avian flu appeared in the United States.

“Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Genotype B3.13 in Dairy Cattle: National Epidemiologic Brief”

The USDA recently published this national epidemiologic brief: “On March 25, 2024, USDA announced unpasteurized, clinical samples of milk from sick cattle collected from two dairy farms in Kansas and one in Texas, as well as an oropharyngeal swab from another dairy in Texas, have tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratories confirmed the detection as HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype B3.13. Phylogenetic analysis and epidemiology support a single introduction into this novel host followed by onward transmission.”

“This report provides field epidemiologic summaries using data collected from epidemiologic questionnaires for H5N1 affected dairy herds.”

Further Reading

CDC: “CDC Reports A(H5N1) Ferret Study Results”

Amy Maxmen and Arthur Allen: “Bird Flu Tests Are Hard To Get. So How Will We Know When To Sound the Pandemic Alarm?” KFF Health News

Samuel V. Scarpino: “Timeline: H5N1 Bird Flu Outbreak in the U.S.,” Think Global Health

Maggie Fox: “H5N1 Bird Flu Isn’t a Human Pandemic–Yet. American Contrariness Could Turn It into One,” Scientific American

Helen Branswell: “In Dribs and Drabs, USDA Reports Suggest Containing Bird Flu Outbreak in Dairy Cows Will Be Challenging,” STAT

BlueDot: ILI Pulse: A(H5N1) Outbreaks in the USA

Katherine J. Wu: “How Much Worse Would a Bird-Flu Pandemic Be?” The Atlantic

Brenda Goodman: “Bird Flu is Rampant in Animals. Humans Ignore it at Our Own Peril,” CNN

Congressional Republicans Target NIH Mpox Research in New Report

Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee released this week a report titled “Interim Staff Report on Investigation into Risky MPXV Experiment at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.” In it, members accuse the NIH of obstructing the investigation of proposed research on MPXV at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), in addition to failing to properly regulate this controversial work. The report explains that, “The primary conclusion drawn at this point in the investigation is that NIAID cannot be trusted to oversee its own research of pathogens responsibly. It cannot be trusted to determine whether an experiment on a potential pandemic pathogen or enhanced potential pandemic pathogen poses unacceptable biosafety risk or a serious public health threat. Lastly, NIAID cannot be trusted to honestly communicate with Congress and the public about controversial GOFROC experiments.”

Science reports that “A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), NIH’s parent agency, dismissed the report’s conclusions. “The committee is looking for an issue where there isn’t one. HHS and its divisions, including NIH, follow strict biosafety measures as our scientists work to better understand and protect the public from infectious diseases—like mpox,” the spokesperson said.”

The investigation is one of many Congressional efforts to probe concerns about biosafety in laboratories and other concerns raised by the pandemic. This investigation was launched in late 2022 after Bernard Moss, a well-known poxvirus researcher at NIAID, described research he was planning to conduct in a Science news article.

Science explains that “Moss was trying to understand the difference between the virulent clade I monkeypox virus strain causing outbreaks mostly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the milder clade II virus, which spread from West Africa around the world in 2022. In a first effort, Moss said he had inserted genes from milder clade II into a clade I virus, without seeing it become less dangerous in mice. He told Science he was next planning to explore the reverse transfer: whether inserting genes from clade I into clade II viruses made these usually milder viruses more lethal to mice.”

“Some researchers raised the alarm, worried the study qualified as risky GOF research because the resulting virus could be much more dangerous and even touch off a pandemic. Committee members say that when they sought more information from NIH and NIAID on the experiments, they were initially told the transfer of genes from clade I to clade II was never approved…Then in March, NIAID revealed that its biosafety committee had signed off on a project that included such gene transfers in 2015, but that researchers never followed through; they only moved genes from clade II to clade I. The HHS spokesperson says, “The experiment referenced by the committee was never conducted, which the committee knows.”’

“This is a colorized transmission electron microscopic image of mpox virus particles (red), found within an infected cell (blue), that had been cultured in the laboratory. The image was captured and color-enhanced at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), Integrated Research Facility (IRF), located in Fort Detrick, Maryland.”| Credit: CDC PHIL

The Committee’s press release explains that “For nearly a year and a half, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the NIH, and NIAID misrepresented and deceived the Committee by repeatedly denying that the potentially dangerous experiment was proposed and approved. However, after being pressed repeatedly by Committee Leaders, HHS ultimately admitted Dr. Moss’s research team had been granted approval to conduct a bidirectional MPVX gene-transfer experiment (i.e., inserting the more lethal strain into the more transmissible strain and vice versa). Documents made available for review to Committee staff confirmed the 2015 approval of the experiment and raised additional concerns.”

It continues with “HHS, the NIH, and NIAID still maintain the riskier research project was never conducted. However, no documentation or any other evidence has been produced to substantiate the claim. NIAID has also failed to offer any explanation of the circumstances and rationale that supposedly led the Moss research team to drop the bidirectional mpox gene-transfer experiment after receiving approval for the project. “

The report also raises concerns about existing federal rules covering gain-of-function research, suggesting that they currently do not do enough because they allow researchers, their institutions, and NIAID to decide which projects fit the definition of GOF work. The report argues this is an “inescapable conflict of interest,” and that screening should be conducted by a panel at HHS or a new “wholly independent” entity.

The Committee also expressed disagreement with how GOF is defined in the new federal rules and made several more conclusions, including “NIAID has a culture of secrecy and obfuscation regarding experiments involving pandemic and potential pandemic pathogens. HHS and the NIH are complicit in enabling NIAID’s culture of secrecy and obfuscation. This is incompatible with accountable, democratic governance and further erodes the public’s trust in government health agencies,” and “: Principal investigators, research institutes, and funding agencies are poorly positioned to, and perhaps incapable of, conducting adequate risk/benefit analysis and oversight of experiments that—by virtue of having proposed them and approved their funding—they want to see conducted. This is an inescapable conflict of interest and misalignment of incentives that results in experiments being approved and conducted without sufficient scrutiny or ongoing oversight.”

Report Alleges US Department of Defense Ran “Secret Anti-Vax Campaign to Undermine China During Pandemic”

A recent report from Reuters claims that, “At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. military launched a secret campaign to counter what it perceived as China’s growing influence in the Philippines, a nation hit especially hard by the deadly virus.”

The report’s authors, Chris Bing and Joel Schectman, continue, writing “The clandestine operation has not been previously reported. It aimed to sow doubt about the safety and efficacy of vaccines and other life-saving aid that was being supplied by China, a Reuters investigation found. Through phony internet accounts meant to impersonate Filipinos, the military’s propaganda efforts morphed into an anti-vax campaign. Social media posts decried the quality of face masks, test kits and the first vaccine that would become available in the Philippines – China’s Sinovac inoculation.”

The report later explains that “The U.S. military’s anti-vax effort began in the spring of 2020 and expanded beyond Southeast Asia before it was terminated in mid-2021, Reuters determined. Tailoring the propaganda campaign to local audiences across Central Asia and the Middle East, the Pentagon used a combination of fake social media accounts on multiple platforms to spread fear of China’s vaccines among Muslims at a time when the virus was killing tens of thousands of people each day. A key part of the strategy: amplify the disputed contention that, because vaccines sometimes contain pork gelatin, China’s shots could be considered forbidden under Islamic law.”

“The military program started under former President Donald Trump and continued months into Joe Biden’s presidency, Reuters found – even after alarmed social media executives warned the new administration that the Pentagon had been trafficking in COVID misinformation. The Biden White House issued an edict in spring 2021 banning the anti-vax effort, which also disparaged vaccines produced by other rivals, and the Pentagon initiated an internal review, Reuters found.”

Read more here.

OPCW Fact-Finding Mission Concludes Latest Investigations into Reports in Syria

The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons recently announced its Fact-Finding Mission (FFM) in Syria concluded “…that the information obtained and analysed is not sufficient to provide reasonable grounds to determine that toxic chemicals were used as a weapon in the reported incidents that occurred on 9 August 2017 in Qalib al-Thawr and 8 November 2017 al-Balil, Hama Governorate, the Syrian Arab Republic.”

Read more about the FFM, these two reports from the Syrian Arab Republic, and the FFM’s conclusions here.

“Russia Spreads Disinformation to Cover Up Its Use of Chemical Weapons in Ukraine”

The Department of State’s Global Engagement Center recently published this report in several languages discussing Russia’s use of chemical weapons and its efforts to conceal that use in Ukraine. It explains in part, “Russia’s use of such chemicals is not an isolated incident, and is probably driven by Russian forces’ desire to dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions and drive them into the line of fire, the exact reason the CWC prohibits the use of RCA as method of warfare, and achieve tactical gains on the battlefield. Russia retains an undeclared chemical weapons program and has used chemical weapons, such as the Novichok nerve agents, at least twice in recent years in assassination attempts.”

“Catalyzing Crisis: A Primer on Artificial Intelligence, Catastrophes, and National Security”

Bill Drexel and Caleb Withers authored this report for CNAS: “The arrival of ChatGPT in November 2022 initiated both great excitement and fear around the world about the potential and risks of artificial intelligence (AI). In response, several AI labs, national governments, and international bodies have launched new research and policy efforts to mitigate large-scale AI risks. However, growing efforts to mitigate these risks have also produced a divisive and often confusing debate about how to define, distinguish, and prioritize severe AI hazards. This categorical confusion could complicate policymakers’ efforts to discern the unique features and national security implications of the threats AI poses—and hinder efforts to address them. Specifically, emerging catastrophic risks with weighty national security implications are often overlooked between the two dominant discussions about AI concern in public discourse: present-day systemic harms from AI related to bias and discrimination on the one hand, and cantankerous, future-oriented debates about existential risks from AI on the other.”

“This report aims to: Demonstrate the growing importance of mitigating AI’s catastrophic risks for national security practitioners, Clarify what AI’s catastrophic risks are (and are not), Introduce the dimensions of AI safety that will most shape catastrophic risks.”

“Driving AIxBio Innovation Through Data and Standardization”

The National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology recently published this paper: “If the United States wants to remain a leader in artificial intelligence (AI) and biotechnology (AIxBio), it must treat biological data as a strategic asset to support the next phase of AIxBio models. These models will rely on biological data sets of unprecedented scale, likely generated through high-throughput lab automation and new experimental methods. Biological data enable the use of AIxBio models, but advances in AIxBio are limited by the availability of appropriate and usable data.1 Additionally, data standardization would enable the United States to combine data from across its robust and diverse life science ecosystem to further advance AIxBio and maximize its potential benefits. This white paper describes considerations for generating and standardizing biological data to support continued AIxBio research, development, and application.”

“APP3 Statement on the Importance of Biosafety and Biosecurity in the Age of Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technologies”

This statement was recently released by the  GHSA Action Package Prevent-3 on Biosafety and Biosecurity, Emerging Biological Risks Working Group: “As advances in AI and emerging technologies continue to increase worldwide quickly, there are growing concerns that AI tools and other emerging technologies could act synergistically with synthetic biotechnologies to cause significant harm. The APP3 believes it is imperative to understand further and mitigate the biological risks of AI and emerging biotechnologies, reduce the risk of technology misuse, and protect economic and global health security. Efforts to raise awareness within the GHSA community, cultivate responsible scientific work, strengthen biosecurity controls, and mitigate biological risks associated with new technologies globally are critical.”

Read more here.

“Why the Global Bioeconomy Urgently Needs Technical Standards and Metrics”

Paul Freemont, India Hook-Barnard, and Matthew Chang published this piece with the World Economic Forum, in which they write “The global bioeconomy is estimated to be worth about $4 trillion, and more than 50 nations now have published bioeconomy strategies or have policies steering towards a sustainable bioeconomy. With the development of new technologies in engineering and synthetic biology, the bioeconomy is growing rapidly…Growth of the sector will bring increased commercialization, scale-up and distributed manufacturing, and promote manufacturing resilience by diversifying production streams beyond traditional chemical manufacturing.”

“However, the current lack of standards and metrics that apply directly to such a large global industry could result in chaos, with failed interoperability and an inability to share data or allow for technology transfer internationally…The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has published only 35 standards directly related to biotechnology; in comparison, there are 79 published standards relating specifically to dental instruments…As such, there is a call from industry representatives and academics alike to develop technical standards and metrics that can be applied across the innovation pipeline to support the growth of the bioeconomy.”

“The Viral Most Wanted: The Orthomyxoviruses”

Kate Kelland continues CEPI’s “The Viral Most Wanted” with this latest installment: “It’s considered the most deadly single contagious disease event in all of human history and infected 500 million people worldwide—a third of the planet’s population.”

“It struck in three merciless waves—the first, relatively mild, in March 1918; the second, more brutal, in August 1918; and the third and deadliest of all in late 1918, running through the first few months of 1919.”

“It is estimated to have killed almost five times as many people as were killed during World War One.”

“More than half of the people it killed were fit, strong, healthy young adults in the prime of life—including millions of World War One soldiers.”

“Its victims often died within hours or days of developing symptoms. Their skin would turn blue and their lungs would fill with fluid, causing them to suffocate from within.” 

“This was the Spanish Flu—the Great Influenza pandemic of 1918-1919—caused by a virus called influenza type A subtype H1N1. It and its many life-threatening relatives are part of the Orthomyxovirus family—one of The Viral Most Wanted.”

“Countering Disinformation and Misinformation in Animal Health Emergencies”

The World Organisation for Animal Health and INTERPOL recently released this set of guidelines: “To orient Veterinary Services, Aquatic Animal Health Services and Law Enforcement to these issues and introduce some key strategies to manage disinformation and misinformation, these guidelines have been prepared by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) and the International Criminal Police Organisation (INTERPOL). They draw from a June 2022 virtual workshop convened as part of the WOAH, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and INTERPOL Project on ‘building resilience against agro-crime and agro-terrorism’, which was funded by Global Affairs Canada’s Weapons Threat Reduction Program [1].”

“The guidelines provide a starting point for these services and agencies, as well as organisations working in animal health emergencies, to prepare for, detect and respond to disinformation and misinformation. Since this is a fast-moving area with much information and guidance already available, this document includes links to further resources that offer more detail on specific strategies and actions.”

“WHO Bacterial Priority Pathogens List, 2024: Bacterial Pathogens of Public Health Importance to Guide Research, Development and Strategies to Prevent and Control Antimicrobial Resistance”

From WHO: “The 2024 WHO Bacterial Priority Pathogens List (WHO BPPL) is an important tool in the global fight against antimicrobial resistance. Building on the 2017 edition, the 2024 WHO BPPL updates and refines the prioritization of antibiotic-resistant bacterial pathogens to address the evolving challenges of antibiotic resistance. The list categorizes these pathogens into critical, high, and medium priority groups to inform research and development (R&D) and public health interventions.”

“The 2024 WHO BPPL covers 24 pathogens, spanning 15 families of antibiotic-resistant bacterial pathogens. Notable among these are Gram-negative bacteria resistant to last-resort antibiotics, drug-resistant mycobacterium tuberculosis, and other high-burden resistant pathogens such as Salmonella, Shigella, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Staphylococcus aureus. The inclusion of these pathogens in the list underscores their global impact in terms of burden, as well as issues related to transmissibility, treatability, and prevention options. It also reflects the R&D pipeline of new treatments and emerging resistance trends.”

“The WHO BPPL acts as a guide for prioritizing R&D and investments in AMR, emphasizing the need for regionally tailored strategies to effectively combat resistance. It targets developers of antibacterial medicines, academic and public research institutions, research funders, and public–private partnerships investing in AMR R&D, as well as policy-makers responsible for developing and implementing AMR policies and programs.”

“Further details on the rationale behind the list, the methodologies used to develop the list and the key findings, can be found in the accompanying report.”

“A Long COVID Definition: A Chronic, Systemic Disease State with Profound Consequences”

From NASEM: “The lack of a clear and consistent definition for Long COVID presents challenges for policymakers, researchers, public health professionals, clinicians, support services, and patients. As such, the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Health asked the National Academies to assemble a committee of experts to produce a consensus definition for Long COVID. The resulting report, A Long COVID Definition: A Chronic, Systemic Disease State with Profound Consequences, presents the 2024 NASEM Long COVID Definition, developed based on findings reported in existing literature, as well as stakeholder and patient input.”

Read here.

“Pentagon Playing Catch Up After Years Neglecting Nuclear Protection”

Stew Magnuson recently published this piece in National Defense discussing the Army’s recent report, “An Independent Assessment of the Army’s Ability to Fight and Win on a Nuclear Battlefield.” He writes in part, “The Army Science Board in September completed work on a report, “An Independent Assessment of the Army’s Ability to Fight and Win on a Nuclear Battlefield.”

“Its conclusions were not revealed to the public and are available to read only on classified networks. But listening to a handful of government experts at a recent presentation who did have access to the report, its overall conclusions must be alarming.”

What We’re Listening to 🎧

Voices from DARPA Podcast Episode 79: Integrating ELSI
“In this episode, we’ll be taking a deeper dive into ELSI – ethical, legal, and societal implications of new technologies and capabilities – and specific examples of how DARPA programs have incorporated those considerations into their structure.”

“We’re highlighting three examples of how DARPA integrated ELSI throughout the program lifecycle via the counsel of experts from the medical, scientific, legal, and ethics communities to assist program managers and performers in identifying and mitigating any potential issues.”

“The first program, out of our Biological Technologies Office, is Safe Genes, which supported force protection and military health and readiness by developing tools and methodologies to control, counter, and even reverse the effects of genome editing—including gene drives—in biological systems across scales.”

“The second program, Urban Reconnaissance through Supervised Autonomy (URSA) from our Tactical Technology Office (TTO) aimed to enable improved techniques for rapidly discriminating hostile intent and filtering out threats in complex urban environments.”

“And, finally, the current In the Moment program in our Information Innovation Office (I2O) seeks to identify key attributes underlying trusted human decision-making in dynamic settings and computationally representing those attributes, to generate a quantitative alignment framework for a trusted human decision-maker and an algorithm.”

Listen here.

NEW: Upcoming Hearing on COVID-19 Origins

“Biodefense Program Director, Dr. Gregory Koblentz, will be testifying at the upcoming Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs hearing on “Origins of COVID-19: An Examination of Available Evidence,” which will be held on Tuesday, June 19 at 10 AM. Also testifying will be Dr. Robert Garry from Tulane University, Dr. Stephen C. Quay from Atossa Therapeutics, and Dr. Richard H. Ebright from Rutgers University.”

NEW: Why Isn’t the World Ready for the Next Pandemic? How Can It Be?

From the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response: “The Right Honourable Helen Clark and Her Excellency Ellen Johnson Sirleaf explore these questions and provide answers in their new report: No Time to Gamble: Leaders Must Unite to Prevent Pandemics.”

This virtual event will take place on June 18 at 1 pm CET. Learn more and register here.

NEW: IRF Book Launch: Essentials of Biological Security: A Global Perspective

The Interdisciplinary Research Forum is hosting this book launch for Essentials of Biological Security: A Global Perspective by Lijun Shang, Weiwen Zhang, and Malcolm Dando: “Improving biosecurity education appears to be a key means to address the need for awareness raising and education about the dangers of the dual use research for life scientists within a culture of responsible research under BTWC or CBW. Although it has been advocated for a long time, it still presents a challenging task for all stakeholders, especially for life science communities.”

“In this launching workshop, the leading editor Professor Lijun Shang will explain the background of initiation of this book, including the purpose and strategy plan of using the book to implement biosecurity education. Professor Malcolm Dando will give an overview of the book with brief introduction of each chapter, and Professor Weiwen Zhang will talk about our promotion plan for this book, including translation, workshops, and future publication plans.”

“We will also have chapter authors to briefly introduce their individual chapters either in person or through a video recording. Finally, we will have Iris Magne to talk about our plans of using this book as a first stepping stone in the current project of Building up An International Security Education Network to include the book.”

This event will take place on June 14 at 2 pm BST. Learn more and register here.

NEW: DARPA B-SAFE Industry Day

From DARPA: “The rapidly evolving field of advanced genome editing tools has enabled the ability to modify genetic material in a manner that is precise, rapid, cost-effective, and broadly accessible. Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) and CRISPR-associated protein (Cas) or CRISPR-Cas technologies represent one of the most widely adopted tools in the genome engineering toolkit, and its advancement has revolutionized the field of biotechnology and genetic engineering. However, concerns regarding the precision, specificity, and control of CRISPR-Cas systems remain. The DARPA Broad-Spectrum Antagonists For Editors, or B-SAFE, program aims to develop platform technologies for highly potent inhibitors for multiple classes, types, and species of editors with enhanced activity, utility, and breadth of coverage. The B-SAFE program will also address the challenge of inhibitor molecules keeping pace with the discovery of novel editing systems by developing a platform for rapid discovery and development of inhibitors of novel, emergent gene editor technologies. The B-SAFE program will produce tools capable of complete inhibition of CRISPR-Cas systems with minimal off-target effects. Platforms must be capable of inhibiting DNA editors (Cas9 and Cas12 species) but approaches that also include RNA editors, other DNA editors, and emerging technologies are encouraged. The ideal solution would be capable of inhibiting all Cas9 and Cas12 species.”

This event will take place virtually and in-person on June 28. Learn more and register here.

The Advancing Threat Agnostic Biodefense Webinar Series-Computational and Systems Biology Advances to Enable Bioagent Agnostic Signatures

From PNNL: “Join us as we welcome Andy Lin, Computational Biologist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. His talk, titled “Computational and Systems Biology Advances to Enable Bioagent Agnostic Signatures” will be Tuesday, June 18, at noon PT.”

“Enumerated threat agent lists have long driven biodefense priorities. The global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic demonstrated the limitations of searching for known threat agents as compared to a more agnostic approach. Recent technological advances are enabling agent-agnostic biodefense, especially through the integration of multi-modal observations of host-pathogen interactions directed by a human immunological model.”

“Although well-developed technical assays exist for many aspects of human-pathogen interaction, the analytic methods and pipelines to combine and holistically interpret the results of such assays are immature and require further investments to exploit new technologies.”

“In this talk, we discuss potential immunologically based bioagent-agnostic approaches and the computational tool gaps the community should prioritize filling.”

Register here.

Registration for GHS 2024 Now Open

Registration is now open for the Global Health Security 2024 conference in Sydney, Australia. This iteration will take place 18-21 June, 2024. The call for abstracts is also still open. “The mission of the Global Health Security conference is to provide a forum where leaders, researchers, policy-makers, and representatives from government, international organisations, civil society, and private industry from around the world can engage with each other, review the latest research and policy innovations, and agree solutions for making the world safer and healthier. To that end, our mission is to help foster a genuinely multidisciplinary community of practice that is committed to working collaboratively to enhance global health security and eliminate disease, irrespective of its origin or source.”

SBA.3 International Synthetic Biology, and Biosecurity Conference in Africa

“Join us for the SBA.3 International Synthetic Biology and Biosecurity Conference in Africa, a groundbreaking event that brings together experts, researchers, and enthusiasts in the field of synthetic biology. This in-person conference will take place at the Laico Regency Hotel from Wed, Jul 17, 2024 to Friday, Jul 19, 2024.”

“Get ready to dive into the exciting world of synthetic biology and explore its potential applications in Africa. From cutting-edge research to innovative solutions, this conference offers a unique opportunity to learn, network, and collaborate with like-minded individuals.”

“Discover the latest advancements, trends, and challenges in synthetic biology through engaging keynote speeches, interactive workshops, and thought-provoking panel discussions. Immerse yourself in a vibrant atmosphere where ideas flow freely and new connections are made.”

“Whether you’re a seasoned professional or just starting your journey in synthetic biology, this conference provides a platform to expand your knowledge, exchange ideas, and contribute to the growth of the field in Africa.”

“Don’t miss out on this extraordinary event that promises to shape the future of synthetic biology and biosecurity in Africa. Mark your calendars and join us at the SBA.3 International Synthetic Biology and Biosecurity Conference in Africa!”

Learn more and register here.

Jobs Postings: Detailee (Current Federal Employee), Policy Analyst, Policy Advisor

The National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology (NSCEB) currently has multiple job openings for those who are current federal employees or those who already hold a TS clearance with TS/SCI preferred. Learn more and apply here.

Job Posting: Research Associate (Global Health Law & Governance)

The National University of Singapore is currently hiring a research associate focused on global health law and governance: “The Global Health Law and Governance Program at the NUS Centre for international Law is recruiting a one-year Research Associate position. The Program focuses on the international legal, regulatory and governance aspects of pandemic prevention and response, as well as international public health emergencies. Topics of interest include the World Health Organization’s negotiations on a new pandemic accord, the revision of the International Health Regulations, improving fair and equitable access to medicines, access and benefit sharing of pathogen samples/genetic sequencing data, intellectual property and technology transfer, global health innovation and technologies, and more. The program conducts research, offers education and training, and organizes events. The Research Associate will support the work of the Program and will also undertake a personal research project.”

Learn more and apply here.