Yemen: A Snapshot from the Global War on Terror

By Erik Goepner

The remaining cadre of American military personnel pulled out of Yemen last week following the evacuation of U.S. Embassy staff in February. Six months earlier, President Obama hailed the U.S.-Yemen partnership as a model worthy of emulation in the fight against the Islamic State. For a decade and a half, America has expended substantial effort in the war on terror, yet the results which followed were often unanticipated and problematic.

In 2013, President Obama hosted President Hadi at the White House and thanked him for Yemen’s strong cooperation in countering terror, specifically mentioning the success enjoyed in pushing al Qaeda back in the Arabian Peninsula. If the Sunni-comprised AQAP was pushed back, it now looks like that vacuum has been filled by a different terrorist organization, this one Shia dominated. These Houthi rebels, predominately from Yemen’s north, have been in conflict with the Yemeni government for the past 11 years.

Iran appears responsible for at least part of their success. Reports indicate Iran has provided some level of assistance to the Houthi rebels—possibly arms, funds, and training. A senior Houthi advisor denied any arms support, but agreed they were otherwise working with Iran as “part of a shared vision in ‘confronting the American project’” in the region.

By some analysts count, the fall of Sana’a into the hands of Houthi rebels represents yet another victory in the making for Iran. They point to Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad, and now Sana’a as the fourth Arab capital to politically ally itself with the Persian state.

No doubt there is much history yet to unfold, but to date, America’s war on terror has delivered a number of unanticipated outcomes: a five-fold increase in global terror attacks, two on-going civil wars in the nations America invaded, and an ever-increasing Iranian influence in the region.

Image Credit: Ibrahem Qasim

Week in DC: Events

March 30, 2015

Central Asia: What’s Next?
Date: March 30, 9:30am
Location: Georgetown University, Copley Formal Lounge, 3700 O Street NW, Washington DC

Hosted by the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies in Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, this one-day conference aims to discuss political, economic and security developments in Central Asia following the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Full schedule available here. Register here.

Islam in the Turkish Republic: The Discourse and Praxis of Islamic Modernism
Date: March 30, 12:15pm
Location: Georgetown University, CCAS Boardroom, ICC 241, 3700 O Street NW, Washington DC

Islam in modern Turkey is usually discussed in the context of a supposed cultural dichotomy between Islam and social progressivism (frequently glossed as a never-ending struggle between “Islamists” and “Secularists”). This presentation, however, will discuss how this dichotomous characterization of Islam in Turkey obscures the close interaction of social progressivism and Islamic thought since the beginning of the Turkish Republic. This talk will shed light on the history of Islamic Modernism in modern Turkey, an Islamic theological movement that since the late 19th century has argued for progressive social change and reform. It will discuss how some of the basic tenets of Islamic theological modernism have helped shape Islamic praxis in the Turkish Republic, and how the discursive framework of Islamic modernism has helped lay the groundwork for a wide variety of Islamic discourses since the early 1920s.

Register here.

General Wesley Clark: Exclusive Briefing from Ukraine’s Front Lines
Date: March 30, 4:30pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

Despite the Minsk II ceasefire agreement, Russia continues to supply weapons, equipment and troops to support separatists in Ukraine’s east. In February, the key city of Debaltseve fell to Russian separatists. The port city of Mariupol is the likely next target and tensions spread further to the northeastern city of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city. As Ukraine prepares for another assault from Russian-backed separatists, what steps should the United States and NATO take to help Ukraine withstand Russian aggression?

Register here to attend in person or here to watch live online.

March 31, 2015

Salafists and Sectarianism: Twitter and Communal Conflict in the Middle East
Date: March 31, 9:30am
Location: The Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, 8th Floor, Washington DC

The Stimson Center invites you to join a discussion on the role of social media in spreading sectarian sentiment in the Middle East.

Social media has a powerful effect on much of what happens in the world today. From inciting people to join protests on the streets of Cairo to recruiting young girls to join ISIS, social media can be seen as both a blessing and a curse. In fact, radical groups, such as the Islamic State, have social media to thank for much of their success. While these groups dominate much of the headlines, other non-violent radicals, such as Sunni Salafists, are also using these platforms to disseminate sectarian ideologies. A close analysis of their Twitter accounts opens a window into their universe and the strategies they are using to increase animosity toward the Shi’a, who they believe are not real Muslims.

RSVP here.

To Vote or Not to Vote: Egypt’s Diverse Electorate
Date: March 31, 12:00pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

Islamic religious education in Europe and the United States has become a subject of intense debate after Muslims raised in the West carried out attacks against their fellow citizens. People worry their states are doing too little or too much to shape the spiritual beliefs of private citizens.

In her new Brookings paper, Jenny Berglund explains the differences in publicly-funded Islamic education in Europe and the United States. Her report details existing religious education programs, teacher training, and ongoing political debates, grounded in the historical and religious norms of the countries. Berglund also recommends good practices for governments to further their citizens’ knowledge about Islam and promote inclusive citizenship and respect.

On April 2, the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World will host Berglund and an American expert on Islamic religious education to discuss current programs and best practices in Europe and the United States. After the discussion, the panelists will take audience questions.

Register here and join the conversation on Twitter using #IslamicEd.

Kazakhstan’s Challenging Geopolitical Environment or the Rubik’s Cube of Kazakhstan’s Geopolitics
Date: March 31, 5:00pm
Location: Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 1619 Massachusetts Ave NW, Rome Auditorium, Washington DC

Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy, faces daunting geopolitical challenges. How will Kazakhstan address developments in Ukraine, the Eurasia Economic Union, and Afghanistan?  Three experts from Kazakhstan share their thoughts on these and related issues.

Register here.

Europe and the Iran Negotiations: EES Seminar Series with Valerie Lincy
Date: March 31, 6:00pm
Location: Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 1619 Massachusetts Ave NW, Rome 806, Washington DC

Ms. Valerie Lincy is Executive Director of the Wisconsin Project. She oversees the Project’s two principal projects, the Risk Report database and the Iran Watch website. She provides training as head of the Risk Report team that visits foreign countries. As the editor and principal investigator for Iran Watch, she bears the main responsibility for building, populating and maintaining the site, as well as writing articles for publication, organizing and presiding at roundtables, and conducting associated research. Ms. Lincy graduated from Smith College, cum laude, and received an M.S. in foreign service from Georgetown University. Before coming to the Project, she worked as a researcher in the Paris bureau of the New York Times and as a researcher in Washington-based non-profit institutes.

Register here.

April 1, 2015

American Diplomacy at Risk
Date: April 1, 10:00am
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington DC

Please join us as American Academy of Diplomacy (AAD) Chairman Ambassador Thomas Pickering and Vice Chairman Ambassador Marc Grossman present an overview of the new AAD report, which aims to stimulate changes necessary to prepare American diplomacy for the challenges and opportunities of the twenty-first century.

The report looks in two directions: first, at the politicization of the State Department and the reduction of the role of the Foreign Service, which weakens the State Department and American diplomacy and must be resisted; and second, at potential reforms for both the Civil and Foreign Service to improve professional education, formation and quality.

RSVP here.

Deal of No Deal? Negotiating with Iran
Date: April 1, 10:00am
Location: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Falk Auditorium, Washington DC

Talks aimed at producing a political framework to resolve the Iran nuclear issue are likely to come down to the wire before the  deadline at the end of March, but already leaders in the United States and Iran are facing an intense debate among key constituencies at home. Iranian hardliners have criticized potential regime concessions, while opponents of a deal in the U.S. Congress are advancing legislation that could undermine the Obama administration’s ability to implement an agreement.

On April 1, the Center for Middle East Policy and the Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative at Brookings will host a discussion examining diplomatic progress to date, the components of a credible deal, Iran’s objectives and concerns, and the politics in the United States.  After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.

Register here.

Tomorrow’s Army: The Future of Landpower and Army Innovation
Date: April 1, 10:30am
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Room 212-A, Washington DC

Please join us for a conversation with Under Secretary Carson to discuss the Army’s vision for the role of landpower in future operations. Secretary Carson will also discuss the Army’s approach to innovation, technological and otherwise.

Register here.

Making Sense of Chaos in the Middle East: Multiple Wars, Multiple Alliances
Date: April 1, 12:00pm
Location: Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Volcanic changes in the region are under way, with the outbreak of Sunni-Shiite wars in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, unprecedented tension between Washington and Israel, and U.S.-Iranian nuclear talks that appear on the verge of breakthrough.

To discuss the urgent and longer-term implications of this unfolding chaos, The Washington Institute will host a Policy Forum with senior fellows James Jeffrey, Dennis Ross, and Robert Satloff, moderated by Michael Singh.

Watch live online here.

Information Sharing for Cybersecurity
Date: April 1, 12:30pm
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC

Information sharing to improve cybersecurity has been a goal for the U.S. since the 1990s. After almost two decades of experience, some successful models have emerged, but obstacles and uncertainties continue to slow information exchanges. One major challenge is defining the role of government.

Should government participate, facilitate or control the sharing of cyber threat intelligence by and between government and commercial critical infrastructure? Is it possible for the government to take an active role in cybersecurity without creating the perception of risk to privacy and civil liberties of US persons? Are existing US privacy protections, written decades before the advent of the Internet, adaptable to the internet environment?

CSIS will assemble leading experts to discuss these challenges. The event will begin with a keynote speech on the larger issues pertaining to information sharing. Next, a panel will look through the prism of the Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity Risk Information Sharing Program (CRISP). CRISP started as a small pilot funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, but on August 14, 2014, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) agreed to manage CRISP for the Electricity Subsector, with each new company funding its own participation. The panel will discuss how CRISP might serve as a model for future information sharing and critical infrastructure protection programs.

Register here.

Food Court: The Role of Litigation in Safeguarding Food in the U.S.
Date: April 1, 1:30pm
Location: O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law, 600 New Jersey Ave NW, McDonough Hall, Room 437, Washington DC

Aliza Y. Glasner, J.D., is an Associate at the O’Neill Institutefor National and Global Health Law.Her area of expertise is in food and drug law. Aliza’s research at O’Neill has focused on the role of voluntary data sharing in stimulating development and innovation of medical products, tobacco control, and preventing antimicrobial resistance. Aliza’s work also focuses on domestic healthcare law and the Affordable Care Act. Before joining Georgetown, she was the Manager of Product Development at the Food and Drug Law Institute in Washington, DC. There, she worked in collaboration with industry and government experts to develop programs and publications addressing legal, policy and regulatory issues in the food and drug sector. Aliza previously practiced law at Cadwalader, Wickersham and Taft in New York. Aliza holds a law degree from Fordham University and a B.A. in International Affairs from the George Washington University. This event is open to all students, faculty, staff, and interested members of the public.

For more information on O’Neill Institute events, please visit www.law.georgetown.edu/oneillinstitute/index.cfm

Politburo 2.0: Can Putin’s Inner Circle Survive the Crisis?
Date: April 1, 5:30pm
Location: Johns Hopkins University SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave NW, Rome 806, Washington DC

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s surprising moves throughout the Ukrainian crisis have highlighted the opaque nature of the decision-making process at the highest levels of the Kremlin. Who are the individuals who most influence Putin’s decisions? What does the changing balance of power within Putin’s inner circle suggest about Russia’s future trajectory? And can Western sanctions eventually turn Putin’s ‘politburo’ against him?

Please join CGI for a discussion with Evgeny Minchenko, a leading Russian political consultant who was rated first among political analysts consulted by Russian journalists in 2013, on the findings of his breakout study, “Politburo 2.0,” that maps the changing dynamics of Putin’s inner circle.

A wine reception will follow. Space is limited: please RSVP to reserve your spot.

Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy
Date: April 1, 5:30pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Room 602, Washington DC

The United States, Barry R. Posen argues in Restraint, has grown incapable of moderating its ambitions in international politics. Since the collapse of Soviet power, it has pursued a grand strategy that he calls “liberal hegemony,” one that Dr. Posen sees as unnecessary, counterproductive, costly, and wasteful. Written for policymakers and observers alike, Restraint explains precisely why this grand strategy works poorly and then provides a carefully designed alternative grand strategy and an associated military strategy and force structure. In contrast to the failures and unexpected problems that have stemmed from America’s consistent overreaching, Dr. Posen makes an urgent argument for restraint in the future use of U.S. military strength.

After setting out the political implications of restraint as a guiding principle, Dr. Posen sketches the appropriate military forces and posture that would support such a strategy. He works with a deliberately constrained notion of grand strategy and, even more important, of national security (which he defines as including sovereignty, territorial integrity, power position, and safety). His alternative for military strategy, which Dr. Posen calls “command of the commons,” focuses on protecting U.S. global access through naval, air, and space power, while freeing the United States from most of the relationships that require the permanent stationing of U.S. forces overseas.

Copies of this book will be available for sale at the event.

RSVP here.

Framework to Agreement: Hope or Disappointment for Iran Nuclear Deal?
Date: April 1, 6:30pm
Location: Offices of KPMG, 1801 K Street NW, Washington DC

Secretary of State John Kerry has spent much of the last month in Lausanne, Switzerland in talks with Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to negotiate a conceptual framework by a March 31st deadline.   This framework would lay the foundation for a future nuclear deal with Iran. Join us as we welcome back Amb. John Limbert and Dr. Trita Parsi for an update on a process which began in October 2013 and a look ahead to the potential outcomes of the talks. What can we expect after March 31st? What impact, if any, did the open letter to Ayatollah Khomeini from 46 United States Senators have on negotiations? With Saudi Arabia calling to receive the same deal as Iran, what is at stake for the United States and the world?

Barbara Slavin will moderate the discussion.

Register here.

April 2, 2015

Iraq: Now and After ISIS
Date: April 2, 12:00pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 5th Floor, Washington DC

The Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center hosts a conversation with Samir Sumaida’ie, Diplomat in Residence at the Woodrow Wilson Center and former Iraqi Ambassador to the United States.

Ambassador Sumaida’ie, who recently returned from Iraq, will discuss the evolution of the struggle in Iraq is both complex and consequential. The outcome is going to be a major factor in determining the future shape of the region, and will have a significant impact on global geopolitics. The United States as well as other players should have a clear eyed assessment of where things are heading, and what needs to be done if the direction of events is not palatable.

RSVP here.

America’s Future Role in Afghanistan
Date: April 2, 12:30pm
Location: SEIU Conference Center, 1800 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

The Middle East Institute is pleased to host former American Ambassadors to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad (service in Kabul 2003-2005), Ronald Neumann (2005-2007), and Ryan Crocker (2011-2012) for a panel discussion about the ongoing U.S. role in Afghanistan. President Ashraf Ghani has promised a decade of transformation, but to succeed he must face down growing security concerns and political and economic uncertainty. The panelists will examine the current situation in the country and the future of the U.S. role there in light of resurgent threats from al-Qa’ida and the Taliban.  Marvin Weinbaum, director of the Center for Pakistan Studies at The Middle East Institute, will moderate.

Register here.

ISIS and al-Qaeda: Assessing Terrorist Threats to the Homeland and Beyond
Date: April 2, 12:30pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

The rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (also known as ISIS) as a violent extremist group with global aspirations has raised concerns over a potential terrorist attack on US soil. As ISIS pursues its objective of establishing a state in various parts of the Middle East, it continues to recruit foreign fighters from North Africa and Europe in order to plan for attacks against the West. Recently, Belgian and Australian authorities uncovered ISIS-inspired cells on their territories and succeeded in foiling terrorist plots. So could the US homeland be an ISIS target?

Meanwhile, al-Qaeda – the terrorist organization that actually attacked the United States on September 11, 2001 – is still alive and operational in Yemen and other poorly governed spaces in the region, and continues to pose a threat to the US homeland and regional interests. How should we assess the global terrorist threats posed by ISIS and al-Qaeda? Should al-Qaeda continue to be a counterterrorism priority for the United States? Are al-Qaeda and ISIS equally dangerous, but in different ways?

Please join the Atlantic Council on Thursday, April 2, from 12:30 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. for a discussion of the potential differences between ISIS and al-Qaeda and how the US government should be analyzing and countering both groups simultaneously.

Register here.

Islamic Religious Education in Europe and the United States
Date: April 2, 2:00pm
Location: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Saul/Zilkha Rooms, Washington DC

Islamic religious education in Europe and the United States has become a subject of intense debate after Muslims raised in the West carried out attacks against their fellow citizens. People worry their states are doing too little or too much to shape the spiritual beliefs of private citizens.

In her upcoming Brookings paper, Jenny Berglund explains the differences in publicly-funded Islamic education in Europe and the United States. Her report details existing religious education programs, teacher training, and ongoing political debates, grounded in the historical and religious norms of the countries. Berglund also recommends good practices for governments to further their citizens’ knowledge about Islam and promote inclusive citizenship and respect.

On April 2, the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World will host Berglund and an American expert on Islamic religious education to discuss current programs and best practices in Europe and the United States. After the discussion, the panelists will take audience questions.

Register here to attend.

Stopfake.org: Combatting Kremlin Disinformation about Ukraine
Date: April 2, 4:00pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Suite 412, Voesar Conference Room, Washington DC

The Stopfake project, an independent Ukrainian website launched by young journalists on March 2, 2014, counters false information about Ukraine, especially in pro-Kremlin media. The website publishes articles, video newscasts, and informational material to educate readers about propaganda and ways in which the news is distorted. The Stopfake team has already verified tens of thousands of articles, photos, and videos and has revealed nearly 400 instances of false reporting.

RSVP here.

April 3, 2015

Russia Today: Evaluating the Media Environment in 2015
Date: April 3, 10:30am
Location: Human Rights Campaign, Equality Forum, 1640 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC

Since the start of the Ukrainian crisis, the Russian government has increased its editorial and regulatory control over the media. At the same time, the dominant narrative has turned more nationalistic and anti-Western. Recent public opinion polls suggest that a vast majority of the Russian population strongly supports these official positions and the regime. How has the Kremlin achieved this level of domestic cohesion, and what factors of Russia’s media landscape have enabled this trend? What are the long-term consequences of today’s hostile environment, and can independent media still find a voice? How have conditions changed for Western journalists working in Russia?

The Center on Global Interests is pleased to invite you to a conversation with David Satter and Jill Dougherty on evaluating Russia’s current media environment and political culture.

Light refreshments will be served. Space is limited: please RSVP to reserve your spot.

Pandora Report 3.28.15

This week we’re covering a new treatment for inhalation anthrax, Russian nuclear threats, chlorine accelerating antibiotic resistance and other stories you may have missed.

Have a great week and see you back here next weekend!

FDA Approves Emergent BioSolutions’ Inhaled Anthrax Treatment

Considered one of the most likely agents to be used in biological warfare, Anthrax now has a new enemy—Anthrasil. This treatment, developed by Emergent BioSolutions Inc., neutralizes toxins of Bacillus anthracis and requires only two doses to confer immunity, versus the three of BioThrax (the current treatment for inhaled anthrax).

Reuters—“The company developed the treatment, Anthrasil, as part of a $160 million contract it signed in 2005 with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), a part of the HHS. Anthrasil, which is approved in combination with other antibacterials, is already being stored in the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile, the company said on Wednesday. The drug is made using plasma from healthy, screened donors who have been immunized with Emergent Bio’s Anthrax vaccine, BioThrax, the only FDA-licensed vaccine for the disease. Anthrasil has an orphan drug designation and qualifies for seven years of market exclusivity.”

Russia Threatens to Aim Nuclear Missiles at Denmark Ships if it Joins NATO Shield

Denmark has said that in August it will contribute radar capacity on some of its warships to NATO’s missile defense system. Russia has now threatened to aim nuclear missiles at Danish warships if Copenhagen goes through with its actions. Moscow opposes the system arguing that it reduces the effectiveness of the Russian nuclear arsenal and could lead to a new Cold War-style arms race.

The World Post—“‘We have made clear that NATO’s ballistic missile defense is not directed at Russia or any country, but is meant to defend against missile threats. This decision was taken a long time ago, so we are surprised at the timing, tone and content of the statements made by Russia’s ambassador to Denmark,” [NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu] said. “Such statements do not inspire confidence or contribute to predictability, peace or stability.’”

Chlorine Treatment Can Accelerate Antibiotic Resistance, Study Says

Research presented at the American Chemical Society meeting last week shows that chlorine treatment of wastewater may actually encourage the formation of new antibiotics—rather than eliminating the drug residues. While scientists are looking for new antibiotics, this isn’t good news. ACS says that upon re-entering the environment, the new drugs—in theory—can promote the growth of antibiotic resistant bacteria. In a test, doxycycline was exposed to chlorine; the results are described below.

Gizmodo—“The study evaluated the changes in the antibacterial activity of the products that form in the reaction between doxycycline and chlorine using antibiotic resistance assays. The results showed that some of the transformation products have antibiotic properties. The products of chlorination were also examined…and several chlorinated products were detected. These transformation products may still select for antibiotic resistant micro-organisms in the environment even in the absence of the parent doxycycline molecule. This suggests that re-evaluation of wastewater disinfection practices may be needed.”

Stories You May Have Missed

Image Credit: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration

Week in DC: Events

March 23, 2015

Maidan. Ukraine. Road to Freedom.
Date: March 23, 4:00pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, Art Gallery, Second Floor, 805 21st Street NW, Washington DC

What began as a peaceful protest on November 21, 2013 in Kyiv’s Independence Square ultimately turned into a national socio-political revolution against corruption, authoritarianism, and opaque governance. Instead of heeding protestors’ call for change, the government opened fire on its own citizens, thereby galvanizing protests across the country and catalyzing an entire chain of events known as “EuroMaidan,” the repercussions of which are still palpable today. What may perhaps escape the attention of the average person is artists’ critical role in this movement. This exhibition brings together photographs, paintings, and music from activist-artists, as well as original artifacts from the Kyiv uprisings. The curator, Serhiy Fomenko, is a cultural and social activist and founder of the popular band Mandry.

Register here to attend.

New Trends and Dilemmas in Military Ethics
Date: March 23, 5:15pm
Location: Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, & World Affairs, 3307 M Street NW #200, Washington DC

From violent non-state actors to failed states, the contemporary security environment challenges the norms associated with the law of armed conflict.  How should governments respond ethically to these challenges? The Ashgate Companion on Military Ethics brings together over two dozen experts from around the world to consider the depth of these challenges.

Four contributors to the book will discuss the frontiers of military ethics in the twenty-first century: just war historian James Turner Johnson (Rutgers University); Eric Patterson (Berkley Center) on the ethics of post-conflict; Mary Manjikian (Regent University) on preemption; and intelligence and counter-terrorism expert Keith Pavlischek (USMC, ret.) on asymmetric warfare.

RSVP here.

March 24, 2015

China’s Foreign Policy in a New Era of Sino-Latin American Relations
Date: March 24, 9:00am
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 6th Floor Flom Auditorium, Washington DC

China has become a major economic and political force in Latin America. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made two trips to the region in 13 months. At a Beijing meeting of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States this past January, he pledged $250 billion in investment to Latin America over the next ten years. A Chinese company is planning to build a canal in Nicaragua and the government has announced plans for a space satellite base in Argentina. China is the primary market for Latin American natural resources and a driver of regional infrastructure projects.

The Wilson Center’s Latin American Program, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, and China Environment Forum, in collaboration with the Institute of the Americas, are pleased to invite you to a seminar exploring China’s evolving political engagement with Latin America. We hope you will join noted Chinese and international experts to examine the latest developments in China-Latin American relations, their place in China’s foreign policy, and the political and economic logic that drive Chinese engagement in the region.

RSVP here.

Subcommittee Hearing: Oversight of the State Department and Agency for International Development Funding Priorities for the Western Hemisphere
Date: March 24, 11:00am
Location: U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2255 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington DC

Chairman Duncan on the hearing: “This hearing will examine the Administration’s FY2016 budget request, which gives nearly $2 billion for countries in Latin America and the Caribbean and represents a whopping 35% increase over the FY2014 funding level. Some of the dubious priorities the Administration has for the region include $6.6 million to implement the U.S.-Cuba policy shift by converting the U.S. Interests Section in Havana into a full U.S. Embassy, $1 billion for Central America (225% more than the FY2014 funding level), and $75.5 million for climate change programs. In contrast, total U.S. security assistance for the region would decline by about $4 million under the Administration’s request. I look forward to conducting vigorous oversight of the State Department and USAID’s funding priorities and holding these agencies accountable by eliminating any mismanagement or waste in their operations, terminating programs that aren’t working and applying those funds to the deficit, and ensuring that any U.S. foreign assistance given to countries in the region advances U.S. national security and economic interests.

Germany’s Role in World Politics
Date: March 24, 12:00pm
Location: Georgetown University, Edward B. Bunn, S.J. Intercultural Center, 701, ECR, 37th and O Street NW, Washington DC

The BMW Center invites you to another installment of the Remapping Europe, 1989-2014 event series, “Germany’s Role in World Politics” with Dr. Helga Haftendorn, Freie Universität Berlin, on Tuesday, March 24, 2015.

Dr. Haftendorn will present a short historical overview on how Germany has evolved from a country that says “no” to one that is prepared to take over greater responsibilities. The latter part of the lecture will deal with current international issues such as trying to cope with the war in the Ukraine and to solve the financial crisis in the European Union. In doing so, Dr. Haftendorn will also discuss Germany’s volatile domestic basis for this policy.

Register here.

The Vietnam Forum with Ambassador of Vietnam Pham Quang Vinh and Ambassador of the United States to Vietnam Ted Osius
Date: March 24, 12:00pm
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC

The CSIS Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies is pleased to host a discussion with His Excellency Pham Quang Vinh, ambassador of Vietnam to the United States, and The Honorable Ted Osius, ambassador of the United States to Vietnam. They will discuss the twentieth anniversary of the normalization of U.S.-Vietnam diplomatic relations, and the opportunities and challenges facing the bilateral relationship in the years ahead.

Ambassador Vinh was appointed by President Truong Tan Sang as the fifth ambassador of Vietnam to the United States in July 2014. Previously, he served as deputy minister of foreign affairs, overseeing Vietnam’s relations with South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the South Pacific. Ambassador Vinh also served as Vietnam’s senior official to the ASEAN Senior Officials Meeting from 2007 to 2014. His earlier postings include New York and Thailand.

Ambassador Osius was sworn in as U.S. ambassador to Vietnam in December 2014. He served previously as associate professor at the National War College from 2013 to 2014, and as a senior State Department visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies from 2012 to 2013. A career diplomat, Ambassador Osius served as deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia, from 2009 to 2012. His earlier postings include India, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Click here to RSVP

ISIS and the State of Terror: The Genesis, Evolution, and Impact of the Islamic State
Date: March 24, 2:00pm
Location: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

Though insurgent groups are a fixture of contemporary politics and warfare, the Islamic State or ISIS is unprecedented in its mix of brutality, media savvy, territorial gain, and recruitment.

In ISIS: The State of Terror, two of America’s leading experts on violent extremism and terrorism explain the genesis, evolution, and impact of the Islamic State. Drawing on their unique access to intelligence and law enforcement and through their own groundbreaking research, Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger detail ISIS’s strategies and techniques – and challenge our own conceptions of terrorism in a rapidly changing jihadi landscape.

On March 24, the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World will host Berger and Stern to discuss the threat posed by ISIS. The authors will outline their recommendations for government responses to the ISIS threat. After the discussion, the panelists will take audience questions.

Register here.

Subcommittee Hearing: Iran’s Noncompliance with Its International Atomic Energy Agency Obligations
Date: March 24, 2:00pm
Location: U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2172 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington DC

Chairman Ros-Lehtinen on the hearing: “The latest IAEA reports show that Iran is still not complying with its obligations to either the IAEA or the P5+1. Outstanding questions on the possible military dimension are very troubling and indicate Iran is attempting to deceive and circumvent the international community. If Iran won’t comply with the IAEA now, we’ll have an even harder time verifying its nuclear program if a comprehensive agreement is reached. This just goes to show what many of us fear, and what the administration continues to ignore: there is no way to fully monitor and verify Iran’s program, and that’s why the only option must be a complete dismantling of its nuclear program. This hearing will give our Members an opportunity to hear from experts in the field on exactly what Iran’s noncompliance with the IAEA means for U.S. and global security as well as the nuclear negotiations.”

March 25, 2015

Facing Terrorism: A Lebanese Perspective
Date: March 25, 12:00pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Voices of Civil Society in Iraq
Date: March 25, 12:00pm
Location: National Endowment for Democracy

Belarus on the Eve of Presidential Elections
Date: March 25, 12:30pm
Location: Freedom House

Afghanistan: The Next Phase
Date: March 25, 2:30pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

A Conversation with H.E. Mohammad Ashraf Ghani: President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Date: March 25, 5:00pm
Location: United States Institute of Peace

Cross-Border Successions Under the New European Regulation 2012
Date: March 25, 5:00pm
Location: American University Washington College of Law

PONI Live Debate—If Failure in Iran, Then What?
Date: March 25, 5:30pm
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies

March 26, 2015

Fragility and Extremism in Yemen, Again
Date: March 26, 9:00am
Location: Bipartisan Policy Center

March National Security Task Force Meeting
Date: March 26, 9:00am
Location: U.S. Chamber of Commerce

The Way Forward in the U.S.-Afghanistan Security Partnership
Date: March 26, 11:00am
Location: Heritage Foundation

The Modern Mercenary: Private Armies and What They Mean for World Order
Date: March 26, 12:00am
Location: The College of International Security Affairs, National Defense University

March 27, 2015

States of Fragility: Post-2015 Ambitions; OECD Releases Annual Report on Fragility
Date: March 27, 10:30am
Location: United States Institute of Peace

Pandora Report 3.21.15

This week we’ve got stories about pets and antibiotic resistance, a new Ebola patient in Liberia, rapid neutralization of chemical weapons, and other stories you may have missed.

Have a great week and see you back here next weekend!

Antibiotic Use in Pets Could Give Rise to Superbugs, Experts Warn

We all know that the overuse and over-prescription of antibiotics is leading to the end of antibiotic effectiveness and the rise of antibiotic resistant bacteria. According to Health Canada, this extends beyond humans to our furry friends, too. Many pet owners are purchasing the drugs at pet stores, but just like with humans, pets require monitored use of antibiotics and appropriate prescriptions for antibiotic treatment.

CBC News—“‘It might be cheaper, but it might cost you more in the long run if you don’t treat it right — if the dog gets another problem or needs a different antibiotic, or gets sicker, or dies because of inappropriate treatment. Or it might be that it builds up a resistance bacterium, then it gets an infection later that’s harder to treat or passes it to you and you get the disease,” said [Dr. Scott] Weese [infectious disease specialist at the Ontario Veterinary College at the University of Guelph].

Liberia Officials: New Patient Tests Positive for Ebola

This week, 16 Americans were flown from West Africa (via a really cool plane) back to the U.S. after exposure to Ebola from an infected Partners in Health co-worker. And lest those fighting the outbreak become too complacent, a new case of the virus has been diagnosed in Liberia. This news is especially devastating because the last patient with Ebola in Liberia was discharged on March 5 and the country was in the midst of the 42-day countdown that ensures the country is disease free. This new patient arrived in the emergency room of a Monrovia hospital on Thursday night, March 20.

Time—“She was identified as a suspected Ebola case and transferred to the hospital’s transit unit, where she could be isolated while awaiting test results. She is now at a treatment center. In a worrying sign, it is not clear where the woman became infected. She doesn’t seem to be linked to any of the people on an Ebola contacts list, [Dr. Francis]Kateh [acting head of Liberia’s Ebola Incident Management Team] said.”

A New Synthetic Compound Can Neutralize Chemical Weapons in Minutes 

A team of scientists from Northwestern University have developed a new compound that can deactivate chemical weapons in minutes. A naturally occurring enzyme usually produced by bacteria—called phosphotriesterases—can deactivate some pesticides, and nerve gases, in milliseconds. Researchers attempted to reproduce the same effects using a synthetic catalyst.

Gizmodo—“In tests published in Nature Materials, the team used their catalyst to deactivate a pesticide similar to nerve agents but safer to use in the lab. Experiments showed that the new compounds—known as NU-1000—deactivated half of the pesticide in 15 minutes. Further testing by U.S army facilities has shown that it neutralizes half of the nerve agent GD—more toxic than the well-known sarin—in just three minutes. The researchers claim that that’s 80 times faster than any previous compound has managed.”

Stories You May Have Missed

Image Credit: Lhixon

Islamic State Update

By Erik Goepner

The Battle for Tikrit

An estimated 20,000 to 30,000 pro-Iraqi government fighters appear poised to eject the remaining IS fighters from Tikrit, the birthplace of Saddam Hussein. Concerning on-going sectarian tensions, Shia militia reportedly constitute the vast majority of the pro-government fighting force, supported by approximately 3,000 Iraqi troops and a small group of Sunnis. No surprise, then, that U.S. officials expressed concerns over the potential for similar “sectarian alienation” between Sunnis and Shias, which left Iraq vulnerable to ISIS in the first place. In addition, Iranian advisors are participating, with the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Quds Force, General Qasem Soleimani, helping to lead the battle. Soleimani’s presence in Iraq appears to be in violation of a 2007 U.N.-imposed travel ban stemming from the terrorist support provided by the Quds force he commands. The U.S. is not taking part in the operation, with U.S. officials saying they were not asked by Iraq to participate.

~~~~~

Foreign fighters

Twenty-thousand foreign fighters from 81 countries are estimated to have joined the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, with a fifth coming from western European nations. For additional information see “Foreign Fighters in Syria” by Richard Barrett and the Munich Security Report 2015 (p. 38).

Image Credit: U.S. Army

Week in DC: Events

March 16, 2015

Global Arms Trade, Recent Trends & Looking Ahead
Date: March 16, 10:00am
Location: The Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, 8th Floor, Washington DC

The global arms trade impacts countries and societies in conflict and at peace. Internal security challenges as well as regional and international instability all drive demand for weapons, sometimes with unanticipated consequences. Today’s complex global conflicts and shifting security partnerships underscore the need for examining recent trends in the global arms market.

Each year, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) publishes a report on recent trends in international arms transfers. Drawn from the world’s most detailed public database on global arms transfers, these reports identify top exporters and importers of major conventional weapons as well as shifts in the international and regional arms trade. Please join us on March 16, 2015 for the U.S. launch of SIPRI’s most recent report. This event will present major findings from the report, and highlight key trends in global arms transfers from 2010 – 2014.

This event is co-hosted by the Forum on the Arms Trade and the Stimson Center.

RSVP here.

Rebels, Radicals, and the Regime: Finding a Way Forward in Syria
Date: March 16, 12:00pm
Location: Middle East Institute, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

On the fourth anniversary of the devastating Syria conflict, The Middle East Institute is pleased to welcome Michael Eisenstadt (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy), Robert Ford (The Middle East Institute, Former U.S. Ambassador to Syria), Mohammed Ghanem (Syrian American Council), and Dafna Rand (Center for a New American Security) for a discussion about how to break the stalemate in Syria and move the country toward a peaceful political transition.

Following the recent collapse of the main U.S.-backed rebel group, Harakat al Hazm, how should the U.S. re-think its strategy toward Syria’s moderate opposition? How might its recently launched train-and-equip program in Turkey affect dynamics inside Syria? How likely is the UN-proposed freeze in Aleppo to succeed, and how viable is Moscow’s renewed push for peace between the regime and its opponents?

The panelists will analyze these questions and assess the likelihood of finding a way forward in Syria in a discussion moderated by Paul Salem (The Middle East Institute).

Register here.

The Pentagon Budget: Prospects for Reform
Date: March 16, 12:00pm
Location: Cato Institute, 1000 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

During the Cold War, annual Pentagon spending averaged about $458 billion in today’s prices; over the next decade, its projected budget will average over half a trillion dollars per year. Yet, while our spending is consistent with Cold War levels, that money pays for fewer troops; supports less base capacity; and buys fewer ships, aircraft, and tanks. In short, we are getting less bang for our buck. And the situation is only getting worse as personnel costs continue to demand an ever-increasing share of the Pentagon’s budget.

There is broad agreement that reforms are needed. But what reforms? And are they possible? Our panel of experts will seek to answer these questions, highlighting the changes they believe are necessary to cure the Pentagon’s spending ills, and debating whether such reforms are politically viable. Please join us for this important discussion.

Featuring Dov S. Zakheim, Senior Advisor, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Mackenzie Eaglen, Resident Fellow at the Marilyn Ware Center for Security Studies, American Enterprise Institute; Todd Harrison, Senior Fellow, Defense Budget Studies, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; and Christopher A. Preble, Vice President for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute; moderated by Kate Brannen, Senior Reporter, Foreign Policy.

Register here.

A Nuclear Deal, Iran’s Regional Role and U.S. Relations with the Gulf
Date: March 16, 2:00pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

The Arab nations across the Gulf from Iran are watching with some trepidation as nuclear talks between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany appear to be nearing a conclusion. Speakers will address the validity of these concerns and how they might be addressed by the Obama Administration to reduce sectarian tensions and bolster nuclear non-proliferation.

The Iran Task Force, chaired by Ambassador Stuart E. Eizenstat, seeks to perform a comprehensive analysis of Iran’s internal political landscape, its role in the region and globally, and any basis for an improved relationship with the West. It is supported generously by the Ploughshares Fund.

Register here.

Understanding the Role of Libya’s Religious Actors in Confronting Violent Extremism
Date: March 16, 3:00pm
Location: United States Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington DC

While the international community hopes to reverse Libya’s rising violence and extremism, it has failed to engage a critical constituency—the country’s religious leaders and activists. Zahra’ Langhi of the Libyan Women’s Platform for Peace (LWPP), in collaboration with the U.S. Institute of Peace, has spent recent months researching and mapping this religious sector. Join us on Monday, March 16 as Langhi offers insights on how international actors can build peacemaking strategies with Libyan religious figures. She will focus on types of religious discourse as can be used towards and against peace and justice, along with efforts to combat violent extremism.

Langhi co-founded LWPP in 2011 amid the uprising that followed the overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi. The U.S. Institute of Peace partnered with her in the current project after the Institute found separately, in a 2013 assessment conducted between USIP and the State Department, that governments and international organizations had been unwilling or unable to work effectively with Libyan religious actors. The new research that Langhi will discuss in the March 16 event—from 3:00pm to 4:30pm—is built around 200 interviews that partner researchers have conducted with religious leaders, civil society activists, youth and political leaders from across Libya.

RSVP here.

Back Channel to Cuba: The Hidden History of Negotiations Between Washington and Havana
Date: March 16, 4:00pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 5th Floor, Washington DC

Authors William M. LeoGrande and Peter Kornbluh will talk about their new book chronicling the untold history of attempts at reconciliation between the United States and Cuba. From John F. Kennedy’s offering of an olive branch to Fidel Castro after the missile crisis, to Henry Kissinger’s top secret quest for normalization, to Barack Obama’s promise of a “new approach,” LeoGrande and Kornbluh reveal a fifty-year record of dialogue and negotiations, both open and furtive.

Dr. William M. LeoGrande is Professor of Government and Dean Emeritus of the School of Public Affairs at American University in Washington, D.C. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Syracuse University. In the 1980s, he served on staff in the United States Senate and House of Representatives. He is the author of Our Own Backyard: The United States in Central America, 1977-1992 (1998) and co-author ofBack Channel to Cuba: The Hidden History of Negotiations between Washington and Havana (2014), among other books. His articles have appeared in Foreign Affairs, the New York TimesWashington PostMiami HeraldLeMonde Diplomatique, among others.

Peter Kornbluh, is a senior analyst at the National Security Archive where he directs the Archive’s Cuba Documentation Projects. From 1990-1999, he taught at Columbia University, as an adjunct assistant professor of international and public affairs. He is the author and editor of a number of National Security Archive books, including Archive document readers, “The Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962,” “The Iran-Contra Scandal: The Declassified History,” and “Bay of Pigs Declassified: The Secret CIA Report on the Invasion of Cuba.” His most recent book is Back Channel to Cuba: The Hidden History of Negotiations between Washington and Havana (UNC Press, 2014), co-authored with William M. LeoGrande, which Foreign Affairs named a “best book of 2014.”

RSVP here.

Managing and Reducing 21st Century Nuclear Security Threats
Date: March 16, 7:00pm
Location: Georgetown University, Bunn ICC, 37th St NW, Washington DC

The Center for Security Studies and the Georgetown International Relations Club invite you to a special event focused on emerging and evolving nuclear security threats facing the United States and its global allies in the 21st century.

We welcome to our campus an unprecedented panel of nuclear security experts, US government and international leaders to discuss these imminent global security challenges.

Opening Remarks:
Dr. Keir Lieber, Associate Professor, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service Security Studies Program

Moderator Remarks:
Ms. Duyeon Kim, Associate in Nuclear Policy Program and Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Panelists:
Senator Sam Nunn, Former Senator (GA), Co-Chairman and CEO, Nuclear Security Initiative
Senator Richard Lugar, Former Senator (IN), President, The Lugar Center
The Right Honorable Desmond Browne, Former United Kingdom Defense Minister and Vice Chairman, Nuclear Threat Initiative
Congressman Jeff Fortenberry, US Representative (NE), Co-Chair Congressional Nuclear Security Caucus

A reception from 6:00 PM – 7:00 PM will precede the Panel Discussion beginning at 7:00 PM.  All attendees are invited to join us for this reception in the Intercultural Center Galleria. RSVP here.

March 17, 2015

Redefining the American National Security Team: New Players, Defenses, and Strategies
Date: March 17, 9:15am
Location: Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

The sixth annual military and federal fellow research symposium, hosted by the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence at Brookings, will feature the independent research produced by members of the military services and federal agencies who have spent the last year serving at think tanks and universities across the nation. Organized by the fellows themselves, it is intended to provide a platform for building greater awareness of the cutting-edge work that America’s military and governmental leaders are producing on key policy issues.

This year’s symposium will focus on “Redefining the American National Security Team,” taking into account a host of changes occurring in the defense and intelligence environments. Not only will this include American policymakers and other actors—both adversarial and allied—but also the tools they employ and how they engage with the world. Bruce Jones, deputy director of Foreign Policy at Brookings, and Paula G. Thornhill, senior political scientist at RAND, will open proceedings with a discussion of leadership and the future threat environment. Lieutenant General David L. Goldfein, director of the Joint Staff, will deliver keynote remarks on “Providing the ‘best military advice’ as a joint leader.”

After each panel, participants will take audience questions. Dress is business attire or working uniform. Lunch will be provided. Register here to attend.

Cyber Leaders: A Conversation with Chairman Michael McCaul
Date: March 17, 10:00am
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC

The Honorable Michael McCaul, Chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, will speak on his legislative priorities for cybersecurity and homeland security in the new Congress.

Cyber Leaders intends to provide a public platform for policymakers and leaders in the field to provide their views on progress, challenges, and policies for cybersecurity.

Please RSVP here.

The FY 2016 Budget Request: Assessing U.S. Foreign Assistance Effectiveness
Date: March 17, 10:00am
Location: U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2172 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington DC

Chairman Royce on the hearing:  “We are facing increasing radicalism in the Middle East and North Africa, grave humanitarian crises in Syria, Iraq, South Sudan and the Central African Republic, Russian aggression in Europe, and growing repression of democratic voices across Africa and Latin America.  There are also opportunities to increase our prosperity that we can bolster.  Of course, in today’s environment, resources are limited.  The bar for justifying U.S. foreign assistance must be high.  It is more important than ever that U.S. foreign assistance is efficient, effective, and supports our national security.  This hearing will give Members an opportunity to examine the President’s budget request for the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Millennium Challenge Corporation – the agencies charged with promoting democratic values and reducing poverty through economic growth.”

Under Threat: Egypt’s Systematic Campaign Against NGOs
Date: March 17, 12:00pm
Location: The Conference Center at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

Despite the repressive environment that existed for Egyptian civil society and NGOs in the Mubarak era, pre-2011 Egypt nonetheless had one of the most vibrant civil societies in the region, which included a variety of professional and respected human rights organizations.  Following Egypt’s 2011 revolution, many hoped to see a more democratic Egypt emerge, with greater political openness and space for civil society to operate.  Unfortunately, the reverse has been true, and Egypt’s civil society in particular has faced an increasingly repressive and hostile environment since 2011.

POMED is pleased to invite you to attend a public panel discussion in conjunction with the release of a new publication, Under Threat: Egypt’s Systematic Campaign against NGOs. This discussion will focus on several key questions: What threats does Egyptian civil society currently face? What are the options for Egypt’s embattled NGO community? What forces have led this ongoing campaign against NGOs? What impact does the ongoing campaign against civil society have on Egypt’s broader political trajectory? And what role may the international community be able to play in supporting Egypt’s threatened civil society?

Join us for a discussion with: Michele Dunne, Senior Associate, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Bahey Eldin Hassan, General Director, Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies; Kristen McGeeney, Senior Legal Advisor, Middle East and North Africa, International Center for Not-for-Profit Law (ICNL); Todd Ruffner, Advocacy Associate, Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED).

RSVP here.

MDAA Congressional Roundtable: Missile Defense Sensors
Date: March 17, 12:30am
Location: Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, Capitol Visitor Center, SVC 201, Washington DC

MDAA invites you to an open, roundtable discussion on U.S. Missile Defense Sensors. Sensors in space, air, on land and at sea play the vital role in the tracking, discrimination and providing the firing solutions for our missile defense systems. The sensors provide the essential information that exponentially boosts the confidence and reliability of our nation’s missile defenses.

This event will provide the opportunity to speak directly with recently retired military commanders with expertise on this important but often overlooked topic. These leaders have experience in variety of regions and commands, including U.S. NORAD/NORTHCOM, U.S. STRATCOM, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. With decades of direct experience in missile defense, they offer a candid, unbiased, and non-partisan view on the requirements for missile defense sensors.

RSVP here.

How the Next Great War Begins
Date: March 17, 3:30pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

Just over 100 years since the outbreak of World War I, where and when might a 21st Century’s ‘Great Power’ war begin? Who will fight, and why? What will be the decisive technologies of a great power war? What will be the role of narrative both before and during such a conflict?

Answering these questions will be ADM James Stavridis, USN (Ret.), Dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University and former Supreme Allied Commander Europe; Ryan Evans, Editor-in-Chief at War On The Rocks; Nikolas Katsimpras, a former Hellenic Navy officer and lecturer at Columbia University who won the project’s first short story contest; and Siobhan Gorman, former intelligence reporter with The Wall Street Journal and a Director at Brunswick Group. As well, Katsimpras will read from his contest-winning story, “Coffee, Wi-Fi, And The Moon.”

The Art of Future Warfare project’s core mission is to cultivate a community of interest in works and ideas arising from the intersection of creativity and expectations about how emerging antagonists, disruptive technologies, and novel warfighting concepts may animate tomorrow’s armed and social conflicts.

Register here to attend in person or watch live online here.

Dealing with Ukraine’s Critical Financial and Economic Challenges
Date: March 17, 4:00pm
Location: Brookings Institution, Saul/Zilkha Rooms, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

Most attention on Ukraine over the past six months has focused on the conflict that the Ukrainian military has fought with separatists and Russian forces in the eastern part of the country.  But Kyiv faces other equally critical problems:  managing a financial crunch and moving forward with badly needed economic reforms.  The Ukrainian government received good news on March 11, when the International Monetary Fund approved a $17.5 billion extended fund facility.  But Kyiv still faces tough financial and economic challenges.

On March 17, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host a talk by Natalie Jaresko, Minister of Finance of Ukraine, on how Kyiv intends to meet these challenges.  Acting Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Bruce Jones will introduce the minister. Following her opening remarks, Steven Pifer, a senior fellow in Foreign Policy, will moderate a discussion with questions from the audience.

Register here to attend.

March 18, 2015

Cyber Risk Wednesday: The Healthcare Internet of Things: Rewards and Risks
Date: March 18, 9:30am
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

Connecting personal medical devices or hospital machines to the larger Internet offers incredible benefits, not least better care for patients and more control over their care, but also possibly lower healthcare costs. One study has estimated savings of over $60 billion over fifteen years.

Yet these benefits come with risks as the networked medical devices will be at least as open to misuse as any other technology.  The security and healthcare industries will have to focus on technologies that are “secure-by-design” to avoid the worst from accidental failures, privacy breaches, and intentional or even widespread disruption.

The report, launched at the event, is a collaboration between Intel Security and the Atlantic Council’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative. It explores these issues with practical recommendations for governments and the health care and security industries.

Register here to attend or watch live online here.

Libya in Turmoil: A TNT Terrorism Roundtable Discussion
Date: March 18, 9:30am
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Concourse Level, Room 114, Washington DC

Libya is experiencing extreme levels of insecurity and is contributing to instability and violence from the African Sahel to the battlefield in Syria. A once promising country is now deeply chaotic, with its own future and integrity in doubt. Political confrontation, countless militias, and the emergence of local ISIS activity are some of the key challenges for Libya. Please join Hunter Keith, Najla Mangoush, and Tom Sanderson for an engaging and critical discussion on Libya’s internal conflicts and its impact on Africa and the Middle East.

Joint Subcommittee Hearing: Iran and Hezbollah in the Western Hemisphere
Date: March 18, 10:15am
Location: U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2172 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington DC

Chairman Duncan on the hearing: “Given the impending deadline for nuclear negotiations over Iran’s illicit nuclear weapons program, I believe it is critical for the U.S. to re-examine Iran and Hezbollah’s activities in our own neighborhood. Congress has conducted sustained, rigorous oversight on this issue with multiple Committee hearings, classified briefings, and the passage of legislation I authored, the Countering Iran in the Western Hemisphere Act, into law in 2012. Unfortunately, the Obama Administration continues to ignore this threat even while Iran and Hezbollah expand their reach. Following a September 2014 Government Accountability Office report that found the State Department failed to follow this law, the Administration has taken no concrete action to address these problems. This hearing will consider the implications of continued inaction by the U.S. and regional governments even while Iran has been implicated in recent attempted terrorist attacks in Peru (2014) and Uruguay (2015) and embroiled in a controversy with Argentina concerning allegations of a political cover-up and the mysterious death of Alberto Nisman. I look forward to hearing the regional perspectives the witnesses will share.”

Chairman Ros-Lehtinen on the hearing: “Iran and Hezbollah’s history of involvement in the Western Hemisphere has long been a source of concern for the United States. Given the nature of transnational criminal networks existing in Latin America and the rise of terrorism ideology being exported worldwide from Middle East, it is disturbing that the State Department has failed to fully allocate necessary resources and attention to properly address this potential threat to our nation. It is well known that Iran poses a security threat to regional affairs and has expanded its ties in countries such as Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Ecuador. The United States needs a comprehensive understanding of Tehran’s efforts in Latin America in order to thwart any potential risk to our allies and U.S. national security.”

Dialogues on American Strategy and Statesmanship: Sen. Tom Cotton and Walter Russell Mead
Date: March 18, 11:30am
Location: Hudson Institute, 1015 15th Street NW, 6th Floor, Washington DC

Walter Russell Mead, Hudson Institute Distinguished Scholar in American Strategy and Statesmanship, hosts Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas for a one-on-one discussion of U.S. national security challenges. Mead will explore Senator Cotton’s perspective on America’s role in the world and recommendations for handling global hot spots, including the rapid rise of the Islamic State, the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, Russian aggression against Ukraine, and other challenges facing American policymakers today and in the years ahead.

Senator Cotton, who serves on the Banking, Intelligence and Armed Services committees, is a prominent voice in Washington on national security and international affairs. Cotton served two combat tours, one in Iraq with the 101st Airborne and the other in Afghanistan with a Provincial Reconstruction Team. His military decorations include the Bronze Star, Combat Infantry Badge, and Ranger Tab.

With this event, Hudson Institute is pleased to inaugurate its Dialogues on American Strategy and Statesmanship, a major new initiative moderated by Distinguished Scholar Walter Russell Mead, one of America’s leading analysts of international affairs.

These dialogues are guided by the belief that global prosperity, the defense of human rights, and the establishment of a secure and peaceful world order require a new foreign policy, one that places a robust America at the heart of a broad and vigorous network of allies. This series will feature leading American and global policymakers and opinion leaders in candid conversation on timely questions of international affairs, national security, economics, and civil society.

Register here.

Cartoons in the Times of Authoritarianism
Date: March 18, 12:00pm
Location: Freedom House, Mark Palmer Conference Room, 1850 M Street NW, Suite 1100, Washington DC

Freedom of expression is under threat in Ecuador and Venezuela. In Ecuador, President Rafael Correa has used restrictive laws, defamation lawsuits, and politicized institutions to silence his media critics and punish those who publish opinions with which he disagrees. In Venezuela, previously independent news outlets have faced government restrictions and been bought up by government cronies, greatly limiting coverage of government repression of street protests and all but eliminating traditional independent media.

In the face of these challenging circumstances, many journalists have continued their work, often at significant personal and professional risk. Ecuadorian cartoonist Bonil has come under attack from the authorities for his satirical depictions of President Rafael Correa and other government leaders, most recently being accused of “socioeconomic discrimination” for a cartoon published in August 2014. Bonil has repeatedly indicated that he has many more cartoons up his sleeve.

Rayma, who published cartoons for the newspaper El Universal for nearly 20 years, was fired in September 2014 for a cartoon satirizing the Venezuelan health care system, which included the signature of the late President Hugo Chavez. She, too, has insisted that she will continue to share her political critiques freely.

Following the Charlie Hebdo assassinations, there is increased attention to cartoonists and freedom of expression. Please join us for a discussion with Bonil and Rayma on their creative methods for challenging growing restrictions on political speech, and using humor to contest power and the status quo.
Click here to register.

Communicating the Strategic Value of Technology Transfer
Date: March 18, 12:00pm
Location: Technology Transfer Society DC Chapter, 1307 New York Ave NW, Washington DC

With a new Congress in place and continuing fiscal constraints, federal R&D agencies and research universities face increasing uncertainty. Technology transfer and commercialization support activities will be among the many functions required to justify their continuation and demonstrate that they advance the goals for their respective institutions. By traditional measures of “return on investment,” technology transfer often takes many years to generate a payoff, and many of its benefits are intangible in nature. Given this situation, how can technology transfer professionals better explain the value of their activities to top executives and elected officials, and capture how these activities contribute to the strategic mission of research organizations? A panel of representatives from industry and academia will address this topic, exploring approaches to communicating the value of technology to senior leadership and making the business case for supporting research commercialization.

Register here.

Searching for a Strategy in the Ukraine Crisis
Date: March 18, 12:00pm
Location: American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, 1755 Massachusetts Ave NW, Suite 700, Washington DC

The West faces a dilemma in the Ukraine crisis. On the one hand, Russian president Vladimir Putin is known to react to political pressure with counter pressure, so a tough policy on Russia is likely to escalate. On the other hand, an appeasement policy entails the risk of ongoing Russian aggressions, too. The previous Western step-by-step approach has not yet been successful in solving the conflict.

This seminar seeks to explore elements of a coherent strategy to deal with Russian aggressions in the Ukraine conflict. Dr. Mehlhausen will juxtapose the competing approaches of Germany and Poland, which have until this point shaped the EU’s Eastern policy. Subsequently, he proposes three principles on which Western responses to the Ukraine crisis should be based. The discussion after the presentation will be moderated by Dr. Gale Mattox, Director of the AICGS Foreign & Domestic Policy Program.

Register here.

March 19, 2015

The War in Ukraine: The Roots of Russian Conduct
Date: March 19, 10:00am
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 5th Floor, Washington DC

A year after the annexation of Crimea and the start of hostilities in Eastern Ukraine, the sequence of events leading up to the crisis are well established. Yet these events find their origins in Russia’s recent and distant past, as well as the EU’s image of a modern, post-WWII Europe. Join us for a panel discussion of the origins of war in Ukraine.

RSVP here.

The Impact of the Crimean and Ukrainian Crises on the Central Eurasian Islamic World with Charles Weller
Date: March 19, 12:30pm
Location: Georgetown University, ACMCU, ICC #270, 3700 O Street NW, Washington DC

Dr. Weller’s talk will focus on four main, interrelated dimensions of the impact of the Crimean and Ukrainian Crises on the Central Eurasian Islamic World: (1) The response of the Crimean Tatar community and impact on Russo-Tatar relations within the Crimea religiously, socially, and politically; (2) Responses among related Turkic Muslim groups of Central Eurasia, particularly the Turks of Turkey, the Volga Tatars within the Russian Federation, and the Kazakh Muslims of Kazakhstan, with related reflections upon the impact of the crises upon Russo-Turkish relations politically, Russo-Volga Tatar relations socially and politically within Tatarstan, and Russo-Kazakh relations socially and politically within Kazakhstan; (3) the (potential) impact upon Russo-Chinese relations politically in connection with the Uighur independence movement; and (4) Responses from across the broader Muslim world, particularly the Middle Eastern and Western worlds. The presentation will argue that the Crimean and Ukrainian crises have provoked and, if maintained, will continue to provoke a predominantly negative reaction against not only Russia and Russian expatriates living in Central Eurasian states which are significantly populated by Muslims, but will serve to reinforce Muslim views of ‘The (Christian) West’ as imperialist and exploitative world powers, in spite of condemnation of the action by a large number of Western powers internationally, since Western condemnation is concerned primarily with safeguarding Ukraine as a pro-Westernizing force (and not the Crimean Tatar cause). This study will draw primarily from scholarly works on historical and historiographical issues pertaining to Ukraine and the Crimea as well as published newspaper, magazine, and journal articles in Turkish, Tatar, Kazakh, and English which have appeared in response/relation to the issue.

Register here.

The Modern Mercenary Book Launch and Reception
Date: March 19, 6:00pm
Location: The Center for Security Studies, Mortara Center for International Studies, 36th Street NW, Washington DC

You are invited to join us for a special event featuring our distinguished adjunct professor, Dr. Sean McFate, in celebration of his latest book The Modern Mercenary: Private Armies and What They Mean For World Order (Oxford University Press).It was 2004, and Sean McFate had a mission in Burundi: to keep the president alive and prevent the country from spiraling into genocide, without anyone knowing that the United States was involved. The United States was, of course, involved, but only through McFate’s employer, the military contractor DynCorp International. Throughout the world, similar scenarios are playing out daily. The United States can no longer go to war without contractors. Yet we don’t know much about the industry’s structure, its operations, or where it’s heading. Even the U.S. government – the entity that actually pays them – knows relatively little.

In The Modern Mercenary, Sean McFate combines a broad-ranging theory of the phenomenon with an insider’s understanding of what the opaque world of the private military industry is actually like, explaining its economic structure and showing in detail how firms operate on the ground. McFate provides an unparalleled perspective into the nuts and bolts of the industry, as well as a sobering prognosis for the future of war.

Please RSVP by Tuesday, March 17.   Reception begins at 6:00 PM, with moderated remarks from Dr. McFate to follow.  This event is open to the public and to the press. The Georgetown University Bookstore will be selling copies of The Modern Mercenary for purchase.

Pandora Report 3.15.15

For those of us at Mason, Spring Break is nearing its end. For the rest of us, however, it’s business as usual. This week we’ve got stories about engineering nuclear worries in South Africa, the eradication of guinea worm, the lasting health impacts of Ebola, and other stories you may have missed.

Have a great week, enjoy the longer daylight hours, and we’ll see you back here next weekend!

U.S. Unease about Nuclear-Weapons Fuel Takes Aim at a South African Vault

Located in a former silver vault at a nuclear research center near Pretoria, South Africa, is enough nuclear weapons explosive to fuel half a dozen bombs. Roughly 485 pounds of highly enriched uranium exist as remnants of the apartheid regime’s nuclear weapons program. U.S. officials worry that not only does this stockpile give South Africa the theoretical ability to regain its status as a nuclear-weapons state, but the stockpile’s vulnerability makes it a target for terrorist thieves. This isn’t a far-fetched concept, because in November 2007 two teams of raiders breached the fences at the nuclear center, entered the site, and broke into the central alarm station. Obama has urged President Jacob Zuma to transform the nuclear explosives into benign reactor fuel—with U.S. assistance—to no avail.

The Washington Post—“‘The bottom line is that South Africa has a crime problem,” [arms control expert Jon] Wolfsthal said. “They have a facility that is holding onto material that they don’t need and a political chip on their shoulder about giving up that material. That has rightly concerned the United States, which is trying to get rid of any cache of HEU [highly enriched uranium] that is still out there.’”

Tug of War: On the Verge of the Greatest Public Health Triumph of the 21st Century

As people work around the world to eradicate Polio, another public health enemy is about to be eliminated first—guinea worm. This parasite, found in rivers and streams, enters the body in larval form through contaminated drinking water. The larvae mature inside the body and move towards the skin’s surface in the form of a burning blister. When the infected human puts water on the blister, the worm bursts out into water, continuing the source infection cycle. However, the number of cases of guinea worm is way down—from 3.5 million cases in 1986 to 126 cases in 2014—thanks to a simple nylon filter attached to a drinking straw. The weave on the nylon is tight enough to filter out the larvae from drinking water.

Slate—“Vanquishing guinea worm would be arguably the first great public health triumph of the 21st century. It would also give new life to the human disease eradication movement, which suffered through 35 mostly frustrating years following the conquest of smallpox in 1980. The victory would prove to governments and private foundations that we can still accomplish eradication.”

Ebola Could Cause Thousands More Deaths—By Ushering in Measles

As Liberia removed their Ebola crematorium—with the declaration that the outbreak is contained—new cases of the disease are still popping up in Sierra Leone and Guinea and have resulted in nearly a dozen American volunteers returning to U.S. facilities for treatment.  And this week, in Science, researchers from NIH and four universities have warned that Ebola’s interruption in other health services—like immunization campaigns—could result in epidemics of preventable diseases with larger fatality numbers than Ebola. Specifically, they warn that up to 100,000 cases of measles could result in 16,000 additional deaths.

Wired—“Measles is already present in West Africa, so the team is not arguing that Ebola will revive an eradicated disease — although, poignantly, hard work in the three countries had recently forced measles incidence way down. “Between 1994 and 2003, the countries reported — and this is just how many they reported, not necessarily how many occurred — about 100,000 cases of measles,” Lessler said. “Whereas in the last decade, they’ve only reported 7,000. So they’ve done an excellent job of controlling the virus compared to the previous (decade).’”

Stories You May Have Missed

 

Image Credit: FEMA

Better Resolution in Microscopy

By Jonathon Marioneaux

For centuries, light microscopes have helped biologists understand the inner workings of the cell by using the unique properties light and how it bends when traversing through different mediums.  The first light microscope led to the discovery of cells and ushered in a new era of biology: microbiology. Since that time, new technological advances have helped push the boundaries of cell anatomy to ever smaller structures and better resolution of those structures.  Several types of microscopes include the scanning electron microscope, transmission electron microscope, florescent microscope, bright field microscope, laser capture micro-dissection microscope, multifocal plane microscope, and x-ray microscope; each one with its unique capabilities.

Traditional optical or light microscopes take advantage of a light source to illuminate a specimen from behind allowing the viewer to see the object. However, the greatest limitation is the resolution of a microscope itself.  The resolution is the ability to differentiate between two objects in a viewing plane and is directly dependent on the wavelength used for viewing.  For example, a light microscope can only view objects to a resolution of 1250 times (theoretical limit 0.250 micrometers) whereas the scanning electron microscope has a limit of 1 nanometer.  As mentioned, this difference is based on the type of wavelength used for viewing, and in the optical microscope this is directly dependent on the type of light used; ultraviolet light achieves a better resolution than infrared.  Another problem with light microscopes is the material must be transparent to the wavelength, the best medium is dependent on the sample, however, oil or water are the most common.

Fei Chen and colleagues have shown that light microscopes can now achieve a higher resolution then previously thought due to a new technique called Expansion Microscopy.  This technique takes advantage of polyelectrolyte gels hydrolyzing in the presence of water homogenized throughout a specimen.  In their work, the researchers showed that a fixed permeabilized brain tissue can be infused with polyelectrolyte gel triggered by an ammonium persulfate accelerator, tetramethylethylenediamine accelerator and digested with tissue-polymer composite protease and can swell 4.5 times without distortion. As the polyelectrolyte gel is mostly water optical microscopes can resolve cellular structures.  The researchers showed that structures such as microtubules, dendrites, and mossy fiber boutons in the dentate were observable in high resolution.

To further increase the resolution of the new technique, the researchers attached fluorescently labeled proteins to the gel matrix and infused the cell before hydrolyzing it.  As the radical hydrolyzing occurred the florescent tags were bound in the matrix and allowed specific regions of the cell to be analyzed in more detail and higher resolution then without the tags.  The tags were created using a specific oligonucleotide sequence on a protein corresponding to an antibody which was then bound to either green florescent protein or yellow florescent protein.  The florescent antibodies also allow for macrostructures to be seen in more refined structural detail then previously possible.

This new technique is still in its infancy and will take advantage of further advancements in both the physical expansion of polyelectrolyte gel and diffraction-limited microscopes.  However, this new technology will allow light microscopes to see smaller cellular structures in finer detail then previously possible in fixed cell microscopy.  Microscope technology continues to advance far beyond the simple refraction lens used to discover the cell.

Image Credit: Erwin94


Chen, F., Tillberg, P., & Boyden, E. (2015). Expansion Microscopy. Science, 347(6221), 543-548.

CIA Purchase of Iraqi CW: Background and Context

By Greg Mercer

Recently, a CIA program to buy and destroy chemical weapons in Iraq has come to light.   The New York Times reports that from 2005 to 2006, Operation Avarice saw the purchase and destruction of 400 chemical weapon rockets originally developed by the Hussein regime in the 1980s.  Reports vary on the contents of the rockets, which may have contained either degraded chemical components or still-active sarin.  The Times article states that, in cooperation with the Army 203rd Military Intelligence Battalion, the CIA station in Baghdad made the purchase from a single Iraqi seller and destroyed the weapons.

These events notably fall outside of the findings of the Iraq Survey Group (ISG), the 2003 Department of Defense-led fact finding mission.  The ISG released a final report in 2004 detailing Iraqi WMD-related activities from 1991 to 2003. However, ongoing conflict in Iraq has led to further encounters with remnants of Hussein’s WMD programs.

An October 2014 article detailed claims made by veterans that military personnel had been exposed to sulfur mustard during the destruction of seized Iraqi chemical weapons near Taji.  The Times’ CJ Chivers places the number of service members exposed to chemical weapons at no fewer than 17, and asserts that they received inadequate healthcare.  His investigation led to the Pentagon acknowledging that hundreds of service members had been exposed to chemical weapons and had received insufficient treatment.

A May 2004 Fox News article reported that a 155mm artillery shell used as part of a roadside bomb in Iraq was found to have contained sarin, and two service members were treated for mild symptoms of exposure.  While the shell contained three liters of sarin, it was a binary system, where separate chemical compounds are mixed to form the weapon agent.  Due to its use as an improvised explosive and failure to combine, the agent was not potent enough to be lethal.  The article notes that a different shell containing mustard gas was found in a similar setup.  However, this shell also did not detonate, and the chemical agent was found by the ISG to be inactive due to improper storage.

In July 2004 the Washington Post reported that warheads found in Iraq by Polish forces, originally believed to be chemical weapons dating back to the Iran-Iraq war (which saw the use of chemical weapons by both sides), did not, in fact, contain chemical agents.  The warheads were reportedly purchased, not confiscated, rockets, though this point was disputed by an unnamed senior intelligence official, who said that the U.S. had been told that the rockets were found alongside other conventional weapons.  Chemical weapons or not, the episode demonstrates the severity with which international forces in Iraq treated claims of insurgents and terrorists possessing or seeking unsecured Hussein-era weapons.

It’s important to note that these brushes with chemical weapons involved agents dating to before 1991.

Chemical weapons were not the only illicit goods seized in Iraq.  In 2005, the Associated Press reported that 550 metric tons of yellowcake uranium had been sold to Canadian uranium producer Cameco Corp. for use as nuclear fuel.  The U.S. conducted a top-secret airlift operation of 37 flights to move the uranium from Baghdad to Montreal.  The uranium was a remnant of Hussein’s nascent nuclear weapons program.  Yellowcake uranium is an intermediate product of uranium processing, not weapons-grade material.  It can either be smelted into fuel rods for use in nuclear reactors for power production, or enriched into U-235 via gas centrifuge.  Low-enriched uranium (up to 20% U-235) is also used in nuclear reactors, but highly-enriched uranium (90%) is used in nuclear weapons.

 

Image Credit: The New York Times