Roadmap for Biosecurity and Biodefense Policy in the United States: Policy Evaluation Metrics Framework
Roadmap for Biosecurity and Biodefense Policy in the United States: Policy Case Study: Synthesis of the Horsepox Virus
Roadmap for Biosecurity and Biodefense Policy in the United States: Historical Case Studies for the Opportunity Cost Analysis
Roadmap for Biosecurity and Biodefense Policy in the United States: Opportunity Cost Analysis Framework
China’s Biotechnology Development: The Role of US and Other Foreign Engagement (2019)
A report prepared for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission
In the past decade, China’s biotechnology industry has grown tremendously, fueled by Chinese government policies promoting the biotechnology sector as a driver of economic growth and increased foreign interaction with the U.S. and other countries. Gryphon Scientific, in partnership with Rhodium Group, performed an extensive investigation of China’s biotechnology industry and the role of U.S. companies in its development to assess the economic and security implications for the U.S. Our report provides a comprehensive look at a growing power in the global biotechnology industry and includes recommendations for specific steps to ensure continued vitality of the U.S. biotechnology industry and the security of our country.
Pandora Report 11.15.2024
This week’s Pandora Report includes program news, updates on H5N1 and the pandemic agreement negotiations, and coverage of Africa CDC’s new mpox clinical trial and Ukrainian reporting on alleged Russian chemical weapons use.
All-BIOD Panel at the Tucker Symposium on Chemical and Biological Weapons
On November 13-14, the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies hosted the 13th Annual Jonathan B. Tucker Symposium. The symposium is held in honor of Jonathan Tucker who dedicated his career to fighting the scourge of chemical and biological weapons. The first panel of the symposium was composed of two alumni of the Biodefense Graduate Program at the Schar School of Policy and Government: Yong-Bee Lim, Biodefense PhD ’21, and Minh Ly, MS Biodefense ’21. Dr. Lim, who is the Deputy Director of the Converging Risks Lab at the Council for Strategic Risks, gave a presentation on “Technology Democratization and its Implications for CBW Safety and Security: Lessons Learned from Engagement with Non-Traditional Communities.” Ly, who is a Research Fellow at CNS, served as the moderator. In his talk, Dr. Lim discussed his research on the Do-It-Yourself Biology community: a grassroots, decentralized community drawn together by a shared passion for biological experimentation, fostering innovation, and a desire to democratize access and use of life sciences materials, equipment, knowledge, and tools. While often discussed as a potential biosecurity threat in policy circles, Dr. Lim’s research found that much of the conventional wisdom on this community is oversimplified or incorrect. Dr. Lim’s talk concluded with three key lessons learned from his engagement with the community: 1) there is often a gap between perception and reality about biorisks that can lead to improper metrics and incorrect assessments that complicate policy formulation and implementation; 2) as the life sciences are practiced by more people, it is imperative to positively engage and receive buy-in from these communities on addressing biorisk issues; and 3) preventing and countering CBW will be increasingly difficult in a world where definitions for key terms such as biosecurity, democratization, and terrorism are either changing or have no global consensus.
Biodefense Program Bowling Party at the White House
On November 7, a group of students, faculty, and alumni from the Biodefense Graduate Program at the Schar School of Policy and Government went bowling at the Harry S. Truman Bowling Alley in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. Competition was fierce, but friendly, between Team Smallpox, Team Anthrax, Team Plague, and Team Ebola. In between strikes, spares, and gutter balls, the group enjoyed coffee, pastries, and lively conversations. Biodefense master’s student Tyler Smith won a fall-themed White House challenge coin for achieving the highest score. Team Smallpox, composed of MS Biodefense students Will MacDonald and Tyler Smith, Biodefense PhD student Annette Prieto, and Biodefense PhD alum Jen Osetek, emerged victorious and walked away with more White House merch. “This was an amazing experience,” said Annette, who works as a Technical Analyst at RAND, “The fun and friendly competition we shared in such an iconic setting made for an unforgettable day and helped build bonds that will extend beyond the lanes.” Program director Gregory Koblentz was rusty but managed to throw one strike and two spares after a healthy infusion of caffeine. The bowling party was graciously hosted by Biodefense PhD student Katherine Dammer who is Special Assistant for Global Health Security and Biodefense at the National Security Council.
Avian Influenza Updates
Canada Reports First Domestically Acquired Human H5N1 Case
The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) confirmed the country’s first domestically acquired human case of avian influenza (caused by H5N1) earlier this week. On November 9, the Office of the Provincial Health Officer for British Columbia reported that a BC teenager was hospitalized and tested presumptive positive for H5N1. On November 13, PHAC’s National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg confirmed the test result and that genomic sequencing indicated that the virus is related to the H5N1 viruses circulating in poultry in British Columbia. Provincial officials are conducting an investigation and are taking actions like contact tracing, testing, and offering antiviral medication to contacts. No further cases have been identified at this time, and it is not clear how the teenager was infected.
PHAC says that the risk to the general public remains low at this time, but the risk is higher for those with unprotected exposure to infected animals. Importantly, the genotype of H5N1 avian influenza in US dairy cattle is not the same as the one confirmed in the domestically acquired human case in BC. No cases of avian influenza have been reported in Canadian dairy cattle, and there is no evidence of its presence in Canadian milk samples.
CDC Calls for Expanding Testing
Federal health officials called for more testing of farmworkers after a CDC study showed that 7% of those tested in Michigan and Colorado had antibodies indicative of a previous H5N1 infection. Only one of the eight workers reported working with infected cows, despite all eight of them doing so. CDC explained in a statement that “…there are two primary ways that workers in the United States have been infected with H5N1 virus: via exposure to infected poultry during culling activities, and through exposure to infected dairy cows, including while caring for sick cows, or when working in a milking parlor, the area on the farm where cows are milked.”
Based on this, the agency has updated its existing recommendation on actions to prevent exposures to H5N1 infected animals, including:
- “Decreasing human exposure through One Health control strategies and biosecurity to limit H5N1 virus infections in animals.”
- “Enhancing personal protective equipment (PPE) guidance to more clearly detail what PPE is appropriate for exposure risk levels (high, medium, and low) in farming and poultry culling operations, alongside more robust worker training on proper use of PPE.”
- “Identifying exposed workers and providing appropriate testing as well as post-exposure prophylaxis (i.e., efforts to limit spread of disease), and treatment (e.g., antivirals).”
- “Offering testing to asymptomatic workers with a high-risk exposure who reported not wearing relevant PPE or who experienced a PPE breach or failure.”
- “Increasing outreach and education with farm workers, employers, and advocacy groups to stress and ensure understanding of these messages and strategies.”
The CDC has also updated recommendations for testing and offering oral antiviral medications. This includes the recommendation that asymptomatic workers with a PPE-unprotected, high-risk exposure to sick animals be offered oseltamivir. The statement explains that a high-risk exposure “could include an unprotected splash in the face with raw cow milk from an infected or potentially infected cow, or not using recommended PPE during activities to depopulate poultry at a poultry farm with known H5N1.” The recommendations also include offering influenza A(H5) testing to asymptomatic workers who have had a high-risk exposure to animals infected with H5N1, whether or not that worker chooses to begin PEP.
The Pandemic Agreement Will Not Be Ready by December
Co-chairs of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Intergovernmental Negotiating Body (INB), Ambassador Anne-Claire Amprou and Precious Matsoso, explained at a media briefing earlier this week that the pandemic agreement will not be adopted at a special World Health Assembly next month as initially thought. They indicated that this was because countries need “more time,” though the INB is already in its 12th meeting following 32 months of negotiations. Ambassador Amprou said at the briefing, “Today, member states agreed we need to conclude the agreement as soon as possible and continue negotiations into 2025 with the goal of concluding the agreement by the next WHA scheduled in May 2025, so we are moving in the right direction with a strong political commitment by member states.”’
Africa CDC Launches Mpox Drug Trial
The Africa CDC recently announced the launch of a trial of the antiviral drug brincidofovir as a treatment for mpox. Brincidofovir, sold under the brand name Tembexa, is a prodrug of cidofovir and is currently approved in the United States to treat smallpox. The trial, “The MpOx Study in Africa (MOSA),” will evaluate the safety and efficacy of brincidofovir with the drug’s developer, Emergent BioSolutions, announcing that it will be conducted and sponsored by PANTHER-the pandemic preparedness platform for health and emerging infectious response.
The trial was announced shortly after the total number of cases of mpox in this outbreak surpassed 50,000. Jean Kaseya, MD, Director General of Africa CDC, said in a statement “Africa is not just responding to the Mpox outbreak; we are leading the charge by spearheading research and development for Mpox therapeutics…The MpOx Study in Africa is a groundbreaking step toward developing an effective treatment that will save lives. This goes beyond research—it’s about African ownership and leadership in tackling our continent’s health challenges through essential research.”
Ukrainian General Staff Reports 323 Uses of Russian CW Use in October
Ukraine’s General Staff reported on November 8 that it had detected 323 Russian uses of CW on the battlefield in October. This brings the total to 4,613 uses reported by Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. An August investigation from the Kyiv Independent showed that Russia’s use of CW is growing, with some Ukrainian soldiers reporting dealing with up to six attacks daily. The United Kingdom announced sanctions against relevant Russian units last month, and the US Department of State cited Russian use of chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops in its announcement of more than 280 sanctions against individuals and entities tied to Russia earlier this year.
Emerging Infectious Diseases-“Vol 30, No. 14 Supplement – Reports from the US Department of Defense Global Emerging Infections Surveillance Program”
David M. Brett-Major writes in this issue of CDC’s Emerging Infectious Diseases‘ introduction, “This supplement contains new technical outputs and perspectives from the Global Emerging Infections Surveillance (GEIS) program within the Department of Defense (DoD). GEIS develops, invests in, disseminates, and integrates information from health surveillance activities conducted by military, academic, public health, and other partners. GEIS-funded researchers from around the world provide novel surveillance data that are used to update the military and civilian outputs from this long-standing initiative.”
“Trump Administration’s Chance to Lead on Pandemic Preparedness”
Syra Madad discusses the incoming administration’s opportunity to leverage lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic in this piece from the Belfer Center, writing in part “As the Trump administration prepares to take office, it faces a pivotal moment to leverage hard-earned lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic and build a more resilient, pandemic-prepared nation. The challenges of managing the first year of COVID-19 exposed critical vulnerabilities in our fragmented public health infrastructure and decentralized healthcare system. The administration is now uniquely positioned to prioritize pandemic preparedness as a matter of national security. This proactive approach is more important than ever, particularly given the current threat posed by H5N1 avian influenza, which is spreading rapidly among wild birds – among other species and causing outbreaks in U.S. poultry and dairy herds. Recent human cases among farmworkers exposed to infected livestock further underscore the urgency of this threat.”
“Cyberattacks on Healthcare: A Global Threat That Can’t Be Ignored”
Vibhu Mishra wrote this piece discussing UNSC’s interest in protecting healthcare infrastructure against cyberattacks for UN News: “An alarming surge in ransomware attacks is putting the world’s healthcare infrastructure at critical risk, endangering patient safety and destabilising health systems, the head of the UN World Health Organization (WHO) warned on Friday, as the Security Council convened to discuss strategies to counter the growing threat.”
Read more here and read the WHO Director-General’s remarks from the meeting here.
“Robust Biosecurity Measures Should Be Standardized at Scientific Cloud Labs”
Jeffrey Lee and Barbara Del Castello recently authored this commentary piece for the RAND Corporation. In it, they discuss clous labs and argue that “By adopting comprehensive security measures, including routine evaluations and monitoring via artificial intelligence (AI), the scientific community, ideally through a consortium, can harness the full potential of cloud labs while ensuring safe and secure research environments.”
“The U.S. Could Soon Face a Threat ‘More Powerful’ Than Nuclear Weapons”
Ashish K. Jha, Matt Pottinger and Matthew McKnight discuss the implications of rapid advancement in synthetic biology and how to achieve bioweapons deterrence in this Washington Post opinion piece. They point to the importance of superior intelligence gathering and analysis, writing that “For deterrence to work, Washington and its allies must have a robust, pervasive system for tracking and, where possible, eliminating highly dangerous research around the world.” However, they explain that the primary challenge to expanding and improving US BIOINT efforts is not technology, but resolve, with Congress having recently watered down the Biden administration’s budget request for pandemic prevention and biosurveillance efforts outlined in the 2023 Biodefense Posture Review remaining underfunded. They conclude that BIOINT alone won’t deter adversaries, but that all necessary elements of bioweapons deterrence depend on world-class BIOINT.
“Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools”
From NTI: “The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with the life sciences offers tremendous potential benefits to society, but advances in AI biodesign tools also pose significant risks of misuse, with the potential for global consequences.”
“AI biodesign tools (BDTs) are technologies that enable the engineering of biological systems. These tools are trained on biological data and are developed to provide insights, predictions, and designs related to biological systems. BDTs have the potential to drive progress in the development of new therapeutics and are likely to have a significant impact across the broader bioeconomy, including in agriculture, health, and materials science. However, there are risks BDTs could be misused to design dangerous pathogens, and few safeguards exist to ensure that the benefits of these technologies can be realized safely and securely.”
“Innovative strategies are needed to reduce the risks associated with potential misuse of biological design tools without significantly hindering beneficial uses. This report identifies a number of strategies, referred to as guardrails, that could be developed to safeguard BDTs against misuse.”
Read the report here.
What We’re Listening To🎧
Build the Base Podcast-Tracy Frost and Dr. Kate Sixt, DoD Research and Engineering OUSD
“In this episode of Building the Base, Lauren Bedula and Hondo Geurts sit down with Tracy Frost, Director of Technology Industrial Innovation Base, and Dr. Kate Sixt, Principal Director for Biotechnology at the Department of Defense. The conversation explores the revolutionary intersection of biotechnology and national security, diving into how the DoD is leveraging bio-manufacturing to strengthen domestic supply chains and innovate defense capabilities. From converting waste products into valuable materials to creating new pathways for manufacturing critical components, the discussion reveals how public-private partnerships are reshaping America’s industrial base.”
One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 Book Launch
The Writer’s Center is hosting a book launch for Dr. Laura Kahn’s new book, One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 (blurb below) on November 23 at 2 pm EST in Bethesda, MD. Learn more and RSVP here.
“One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 unpacks the mysteries of COVID-19’s origins to impart important lessons for future outbreaks. The One Health concept recognizes the interconnected links among the health of humans, animals, plants, and the environment. By comparing the history, science, and clinical presentations of three different coronaviruses—SARS-CoV-1, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)—Kahn uncovers insights with important repercussions for how to prepare and avoid future pandemics. The One Health approach provides a useful framework for examining the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the origins of this zoonotic disease requires investigating the environmental and molecular biological factors that allowed the virus to spread to humans. The book explores the many ways in which the wild animal trade, wet markets, and the camel industry contributed to the spread of the earlier SARS-CoV-1 and MERS coronaviruses. For SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), Kahn examines the biosafety, biosecurity, and bioethics implications of gain-of-function research on pandemic potential pathogens. This book is a must read to understand the geopolitics of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Enhancing the Resilience of Healthcare and Public Health Critical Infrastructure
From NASEM: “Healthcare and public health infrastructure, technology, and operations are rapidly changing and are increasingly interdependent and interconnected. Threats to the nation’s critical social and physical infrastructure systems are also rapidly evolving and highly complex—posing potentially new or growing risks of disruption and challenging the assumptions used to design and protect these systems.”
“The National Academies Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Disasters and Emergencies will host a hybrid public workshop to explore strategies, policies, and innovative actions to improve the resilience of healthcare and public health (HPH) critical infrastructure to impacts from disasters and other emergencies.”
This event will take place in DC on December 9 and 10. Register here.
Resilience in the Face of Global Risks
From CSR: “The Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) cordially invites you to our first annual CSR symposium, Resilience in the Face of Global Risks, scheduled for Tuesday, December 10, 2024. This is the first event bringing together all three of CSR’s institutions—the Center for Climate & Security, the Converging Risks Lab, and the Janne E. Nolan Center on Strategic Weapons—to engage with leaders across our mission sets.”
“The United States and its allies face a complex global security landscape where systemic risks like climate and ecological crisis, nuclear proliferation, and biological threats are blending with war, geopolitical competition, and human insecurity in new and profound ways. While there has been tremendous leadership—and meaningful progress—across these overlapping risk areas, they require persistent innovation in community building to meet the modern risk landscape.”
“The symposium will dive into the progress our communities have made—and how our passionate communities can better work together to help shape the future.”
“In addition to a keynote address, guests will hear from panels, take part in breakout sessions showcasing important issues and new ideas, plus engage with thought leaders between sessions. It will be a widely attended gathering, free to attendees.”
“As we enter a new year with an exceptionally dynamic security environment, we hope CSR’s December event will inspire and build a stronger community across professionals dedicated to anticipating and addressing the world’s greatest risks. We appreciate your consideration and hope you will be able to join us on the 10th of December.”
RSVP here.
2024 CBD S&T Conference
From DTRA: “The CBD S&T Conference brings together the most innovative and influential chemical and biological defense community members from around the globe to share insights and collaborate on the emerging chem-bio threats of tomorrow.”
“Join the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA) Chemical and Biological Technologies Department in its role as the Joint Science and Technology Office (JSTO) for Chemical and Biological Defense, an integral component of the Chemical and Biological Defense Program, as we Focus Forward to uncover novel concepts and examine groundbreaking discoveries within the chem-bio defense landscape.”
“The 2024 CBD S&T Conference will be held at the Broward County Convention Center, December 2–5, 2024.”
Learn more and register here.
Health Security Intelligence: Managing Threats Risks and Hazards Post-Covid 19
“As the acute impact of the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, many unaddressed questions remain for Australia about how to better prepare for the next likely health threat, risk or hazard.”
“In addition to how we enhance national public health capacity, what are the important lessons we can learn from the pandemic from national security and biosecurity perspectives?”
“Given the likelihood of another pandemic at some point, an increasingly uncertain geo-political order and the potential exploitation of biotechnology by bad actors how does Australia and its allies better prepare for a future of increasingly complex health security and biological security threats, risks and hazards?”
“This event is for all health security intelligence stakeholders (policy-makers, national security staff, scientists, researchers and clinicians) who work across the one health continuum and national security agencies.”
“It will introduce participants to Charles Sturt’s extensive research agenda across the one health biosecurity, health and biological security and discuss both their national security and scientific implications. You will hear briefings from key researchers across both STEM and social sciences disciplines working on assessing key health security threats, risks and hazards relevant to your work.”
This event will take place in-person and over livestream on December 4 from 2-4 pm AEDT. Learn more and register here.
NEW: “New Public Health Cybersecurity Readiness Survey Set to Boost Preparedness Against Cyber Threats”
“The co-chairs of the Joint Public Health Cybersecurity Task Group of the Healthcare and Public Health Sector Coordinating Council (HSCC) published a special announcement letter announcing the launch of the Public Health Cybersecurity Readiness Survey. The move aims to enhance the cybersecurity preparedness of state, local, tribal, and territorial (SLTT) public health agencies. Participants can expect the anonymous survey to take about 15 minutes to complete, and it will be open until Monday, Dec. 2, 2024.”
Read more and access the survey here.
The Schar School is Hiring!
The Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University is hiring a tenure-track assistant professor. Expertise in international security, national security, homeland security, emergency management, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, the defense industrial base, or transnational crime and corruption will be regarded positively. Candidates whose work focuses on climate security, technological change, and the future of warfare, or domestic extremism are also encouraged to apply, as are candidates with regional expertise. Details can be found here: https://listings.jobs.gmu.edu/jobs/assistant-professor-fairfax-va-virginia-united-states-other.
US AI Safety Institute Issues RFI on Responsible Development of Chem-Bio Models
From AISI: “The U.S. Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute (U.S. AISI), housed within the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), released a Request for Information seeking insight from stakeholders regarding the responsible development and use of chemical and biological (chem-bio) AI models.”
“Input from a broad range of experts in this field will help the U.S. AISI to develop well-informed approaches to assess and mitigate the potential risks of chem-bio AI models, while enabling safe and responsible innovation.”
“Respondents are encouraged to provide concrete examples, best practices, case studies, and actionable recommendations where possible. The full RFI can be found here.”
“The comment period is now open and will close on December 3, 2024, at 11:59PM Eastern Time. Comments can be submitted online at www.regulations.gov, under docket no. 240920-0247.”
Pandora Report 11.8.2024
This week’s Pandora Report discusses one Biodefense MS student’s research on malaria, the UK’s recently-announced sanctions against 56 people and entities linked to Russia, the CDC’s call for more avian influenza testing, and what a second Trump administration likely means for US public health and global health security.
Biodefense MS Student Presents at Malaria Research Symposium
Zachary Berliner, a Biodefense MS student, is presenting a poster at the 10th Annual Future of Malaria Research Symposium in Baltimore, MD, on November 8. This conference, jointly run by the Johns Hopkins Malaria Research Institute and the University of Maryland School of Medicine, provides “a platform for early-career scientists to share their research with peers, emerging leaders, and established investigators.” In 2023, nine cases of locally acquired malaria occurred in the United States, the first such cases in twenty years. Zak’s project, Public Opinions Toward Malaria Control Interventions in the National Capital Region, featured a survey of adults in the National Capital Region about their opinions toward various malaria control interventions. His study serves as an indicator of preliminary opinions among a small group of Americans to better inform politicians. His poster can be found here, and the full paper can be found here. The poster is based on the capstone paper that Zak wrote as a culmination of his experience in the Biodefense program. Zak is graduating with his MS in Biodefense in December and is looking for policy and analysis opportunities focused on biodefense and health security.
United Kingdom Announces Sanctions on 56 People and Entities Linked to Russia
The UK announced its largest sanctions package against Russia since May of last year this week, in a series of actions the government hopes “disrupts the supply of vital equipment for Putin’s war machine and bears down on Russian malign activity globally, exposing the corrupt activities of Russian proxy military groups in Africa.” Those sanctioned include Denis Sergeev (who was charged by the Met Police in the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal), entities in China, Turkey, and Central Asia, Africa Corps and other private mercenary groups linked to the Kremlin, and others. The UK is the first G7 country to directly sanction Africa Corps, which has directly threatened peace and security in Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic.
CDC Calls for Expanded Bird Flu Testing as California and Washington Report More Cases
Officials at the CDC called for more testing on farms with avian influenza cases after a recent study found some dairy workers have shown signs of infection even though they did not report feeling sick. The study that 7% of the 115 farmworkers whose blood was tested (eight) had antibodies consistent with previous H5N1 infection, pointing to more infections than the 46 identified so far. More cases in farmworkers have also been reported in recent days, including at least four in California and three in Washington. The California Department of Public Health also recently reported one other probable case in a dairy worker who met the case definition, though CDC’s confirmation test was negative.
What Lies Ahead in Trump’s Second Term
President-Elect Trump’s recent victory likely will have severe implications for both domestic health policy and global health security. The first Trump administration largely failed in its response to the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the US ranking very well in pre-pandemic preparedness assessments like the Global Health Security Index and the Trump administration being handed a pandemic playbook by the preceding Obama administration that specifically flagged novel coronaviruses as a potential pandemic threat. The upcoming second Trump administration looks ready to fair just as poorly in terms of not just pandemic preparedness, but in general public health and global health engagement as well.
The president-elect, who has repeatedly and falsely claimed that climate change is a hoax, has promised to rollback federal regulations on the oil and gas industry that are aimed at slowing climate change. Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 Paris Climate Accord in 2017, and his campaign has indicated it intends to do the same again once he is back in office. Trump is also expected to target the EPA during his second term. Changes like this are especially concerning as the effects of climate change, such as increased extreme weather and easier spread of infectious diseases, pose a growing threat globally.
Trump does plan to involve at least one environmental lawyer in his administration-Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an environmental lawyer who Trump has suggested may play a large role in public health in his administration. Unfortunately, Kennedy has no training in public health or medicine, and he has repeatedly peddled anti-vaccine conspiracy theories over the years. Kennedy also faced backlash for comments suggesting COVID-19 was “ethnically targeted,” saying “COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese…We don’t know whether it was deliberately targeted or not but there are papers out there that show the racial or ethnic differential and impact.” Kennedy has also voiced criticism of the childhood vaccine schedule and public water fluoridation, claiming the latter is “lowering IQ in our children,” in contrast to what numerous studies over multiple decades show about its safety and efficacy.
Trump has promised to allow Kennedy to “go wild on” health, medicines, and food policy, with Kennedy saying he believes entire departments at the FDA “have to go.” Kennedy has also said he wants an eight-year-long “break” in NIH funding for infectious disease research, and that he would move that money to chronic disease research. Congressional Republicans have targeted the NIH in recent years, including efforts to strip its authority over gain of function research and repeatedly attacking former NIAID Director, Anthony Fauci.
Trump’s second term also may pose threats to global health security more directly. For example, in 2020, the Trump administration formally notified the United Nations that it intended to withdraw the country from the World Health Organization. This move would have cut off one of the largest funding sources to the WHO in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, some experts argue the attempt was unlawful, in addition to the threat it posed to domestic and global health and security. While the Trump campaign mentioned few specifics about foreign policy for a second term, the United Nations is bracing itself for this incoming administration.
This week’s election results have many experts deeply concerned about what this administration will bring. Saskia Popescu, an alumna of the Schar School’s Biodefense PhD Program and current adjunct professor at the school made this statement to The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists about the election result’s implications for public health: Right now, I think you’d be hard-pressed to find many in public health, healthcare, and pandemic preparedness/response, who are not deeply concerned. The recent notion that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could be in charge of public health for the United States poses a real danger. From his claims that vaccines are harmful or unnecessary to his proposed efforts to remove fluoride from public water systems, Kennedy continuously pushes anti-science rhetoric and dis/misinformation.
History has shown us what might happen under another Trump administration during times of crises, from extreme weather events to a pandemic. We have seen how an administration that pits itself against science and dedicated public service officials reacts. As we face an ongoing H5N1 outbreak, persistent outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, an erosion of trust in public health, a rise in dis/misinformation, and widening social disparities, we need leadership that will unite rather than divide.
We are at a critical time in forming effective and pragmatic policies to address complex issues such as the ways in which developments in artificial intelligence (AI) will affect biosecurity, the safety and security around critical research of dangerous pathogens, the effects of climate change on infectious diseases, and the need to strengthen global health through equity and partnership.
Developing policies in these areas will require strategies based on collaboration and evidence-based measures–not inflammatory, inaccurate, and harmful rhetoric that furthers partisan divides and enflames social discourse. It’s our responsibility to find a path that ensures the protection of public health and global health security. We’ve got a lot of work to do, and I fear a hard road ahead of us.
Others have voiced concerns about a return to US isolationism in global health, Trump not seeking out quality scientific advice, policies regarding vaccines, and more that can be read in this piece from The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
“HHS’ ASPR Playing ‘Quarterback’ for Cyber Response, Resilience”
Jason Miller discusses ASPR’s cyber efforts with Biodefense PhD Program alumnus, Schar School adjunct professor, and current Deputy Director of ASPR’s Office of Preparedness in this piece for Federal News Network: “Just a little over a year ago, that coordination was occurring, but not as smooth as it needed to be. We took some steps, and actually now have a Public Health Service, captain, or an 06 officer, permanently embedded within the National Cyber Investigative Joint Task Force, that the FBI leads. We have a HHS ASPR person embedded full time with the FBI agents and other law enforcement folks who work in that task force and really are dealing with very sensitive information and responding to cyber incidents in the healthcare sector every day,” said Mazanec on Ask the CIO. “That’s just another example where we’ve really tightened up and continue to mature our partnership with the FBI. We do work with the other health focused entities like the Veterans Affairs Department, the Defense Health Agency, certainly within HHS, with the Indian Health Service and with the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services.”
Read more here.
“GHSD Five-year Strategy 2024-2028 (October 2024)”
The State Department’s Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy recently released its strategic plan for 2024-2028: “The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the importance of preventing, detecting, and responding to health crises to safeguard American lives and the global economy. Building on the successes of the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has saved more than 25 million lives from HIV/AIDS, and to address the growing challenges posed by health threats, the State Department established the Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy in August 2023.”
“Building on decades of leadership on global health within the State Department, the Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy’s mission is to lead U.S. diplomatic engagement, help coordinate foreign assistance, and promote international cooperation against health threats, integrating global health security as a core component of national security and foreign policy. The bureau’s first ever five-year Strategy for 2024-2028 outlines the State Department’s role in ending HIV/AIDS as a public health threat and advancing global health security and pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response efforts for the U.S. government.”
“The goals of the Strategy are to:
- End HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030
- Catalyze the political will, financing, and leadership necessary to achieve heath security and address public health threats, including HIV/AIDS
- Improve global multisectoral preparedness and response through diplomacy to protect against health security threats
- Empower the diplomatic workforce to prioritize and integrate global health security as a key pillar of U.S. foreign policy.”
Read the strategy here.
“Chemical Weapons Policymakers Must Act to Balance the Prospects and Perils of AI”
Patrick Norén recently published this CBNW article covering a conference organized by the OPCW and Kingdom of Morocco focused on the role of AI in advancing implementation of the CWC. Norén covers general trends in speakers’ comments, the dual use nature of AI, challenges in legislation, regulation, and cooperation, and issues with misinformation and disinformation.
“MATCH 2.0 Enters Demonstration and Live Testing Phase”
From Stimson: “Behind every chemical transfer is a story, and too often, that story includes discrepancies in reported data. The Stimson Center’s MATCH project team has completed development of an updated DLT prototype and is demonstrating to CWC National Authorities and other stakeholders how it traces these narratives and creates a clear, immutable record of each transaction, aligning records of national authorities and industry while maintaining data confidentiality, reducing risks of misreporting, and enhancing nonproliferation by enabling faster reconciliation of discrepancies in the annual reporting of chemicals covered by the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).”
Read more here.
“THE NEXUS BETWEEN SCIENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY IN CANADA: THE CASE OF THE NATIONAL MICROBIOLOGY LABORATORY IN WINNIPEG”
The Canadian House of Commons’ Special Committee on the Canada-People’s Republic of China Relationship recently released this interim report. Among other things, the report reveals that CSIS “issued a direct and unheeded warning to senior health officials in August 2018, raising concerns about “insider threat activities” linked to Dr. Xiangguo Qiu and her husband, Keding Cheng.” The report explains in its conclusion “The events at the Winnipeg NML facility revealed, as outlined in this report, the fundamentally open and collaborative nature of Canadian scientific research as a means of contributing to the common good, on the one hand, and, on the other, the need for a cultural shift within the scientific field in terms of its vigilance over national security risks and the need to reconsider how we collaborate with entities or states that may not share the same interests as Canada. For example, with regard to the PRC, Mr. Vigneault said that “[i]t is sometimes in our own national interest to collaborate with Chinese entities, but we need to do it with our eyes wide open and make sure that we protect our own base.”’
Read Sam Cooper’s coverage of this report in The Bureau here.
NEW: Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools
From NTI: “Join us for a virtual webinar releasing the findings of NTI | bio’s new report, Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools, followed by a moderated discussion and Q+A with distinguished guest Claire Quereshi.”
“Artificial intelligence (AI) promises to revolutionize not only aspects of daily life but cutting-edge scientific research and development. Within the life sciences, AI biodesign tools (BDTs) have improved significantly in their ability to design biological molecules and make predictions about living systems, displaying potential for beneficial applications and posing significant potential risks if misused.”
“Authors Sarah R. Carter, Ph.D., Nicole E. Wheeler, Ph.D., Christopher R. Isaac, M.Sc., and Jaime M. Yassif, Ph.D. conducted interviews with experts with deep experience creating bioinformatic tools, developing BDTs, and crafting biosecurity policies. The report outlines several proposed measures that could be deployed to design governance approaches to reduce biological risks without unduly hindering scientific advances.”
This event will take place virtually on November 14 at 11 am ET. Learn more and register here.
NEW: A Year-End Review, Recapping Global AI Governance Efforts
From CSET: “This time last year seemed to herald a landmark period in establishing AI governance regimes around the world. After ChatGPT and other AI tools burst onto the scene, U.S. policymakers issued new executive orders, hosted hearings and high-profile learning sessions, and developed new frameworks and standards to support the safe and secure development of AI. Elsewhere, the European Union worked to finalize its AI Act, and China announced its Global AI Governance Initiative. One year later, where do the promises and commitments to govern AI stand?”
“Join us on November 14, as we look back on the last year of global AI governance efforts and evaluate what progress has been made, what work remains to be done, and what the actions of global partners and competitors alike mean for U.S. strategy going forward. CSET Associate Director of Analysis Owen J. Daniels will moderate a conversation with CSET researchers Mia Hoffmann, Mina Narayanan, and Cole McFaul as we survey governance developments around the world over the past year. The moderated discussion will be followed by audience Q&A.”
This event will take place at 1 pm ET on November 14. Learn more and RSVP here.
NEW: Enhancing the Resilience of Healthcare and Public Health Critical Infrastructure
From NASEM: “Healthcare and public health infrastructure, technology, and operations are rapidly changing and are increasingly interdependent and interconnected. Threats to the nation’s critical social and physical infrastructure systems are also rapidly evolving and highly complex—posing potentially new or growing risks of disruption and challenging the assumptions used to design and protect these systems.”
“The National Academies Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Disasters and Emergencies will host a hybrid public workshop to explore strategies, policies, and innovative actions to improve the resilience of healthcare and public health (HPH) critical infrastructure to impacts from disasters and other emergencies.”
This event will take place in DC on December 9 and 10. Register here.
NEW: Resilience in the Face of Global Risks
From CSR: “The Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) cordially invites you to our first annual CSR symposium, Resilience in the Face of Global Risks, scheduled for Tuesday, December 10, 2024. This is the first event bringing together all three of CSR’s institutions—the Center for Climate & Security, the Converging Risks Lab, and the Janne E. Nolan Center on Strategic Weapons—to engage with leaders across our mission sets.”
“The United States and its allies face a complex global security landscape where systemic risks like climate and ecological crisis, nuclear proliferation, and biological threats are blending with war, geopolitical competition, and human insecurity in new and profound ways. While there has been tremendous leadership—and meaningful progress—across these overlapping risk areas, they require persistent innovation in community building to meet the modern risk landscape.”
“The symposium will dive into the progress our communities have made—and how our passionate communities can better work together to help shape the future.”
“In addition to a keynote address, guests will hear from panels, take part in breakout sessions showcasing important issues and new ideas, plus engage with thought leaders between sessions. It will be a widely attended gathering, free to attendees.”
“As we enter a new year with an exceptionally dynamic security environment, we hope CSR’s December event will inspire and build a stronger community across professionals dedicated to anticipating and addressing the world’s greatest risks. We appreciate your consideration and hope you will be able to join us on the 10th of December.”
RSVP here.
Preparing for the Next Outbreak: Designing Closer Collaboration between Healthcare and Public Health to Deploy Pathogen-Agnostic Testing as an Early Warning System
From PNNL: “Please join us in welcoming Dr. Adi V. Gundlapalli, Senior Advisor for Data Readiness and Response in the Office of Public Health Data, Surveillance, and Technology at the CDC for his talk titled “Preparing for the Next Outbreak: Designing Closer Collaboration between Healthcare and Public Health to Deploy Pathogen-Agnostic Testing as an Early Warning System”. This webinar will take place Wednesday, November 13th, at noon PT.”
Learn more and register here.
Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools
From NTI: “Join us for a virtual webinar releasing the findings of NTI | bio’s new report, Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools, followed by a moderated discussion and Q+A with distinguished guest Claire Quereshi.”
“Artificial intelligence (AI) promises to revolutionize not only aspects of daily life but cutting-edge scientific research and development. Within the life sciences, AI biodesign tools (BDTs) have improved significantly in their ability to design biological molecules and make predictions about living systems, displaying potential for beneficial applications and posing significant potential risks if misused.”
This virtual event will take place on November 14 at 11 am EST. Learn more and register here.
13th Annual Jonathan Tucker Symposium
“The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies cordially invites you to the 13th annual Jonathan Tucker Symposium on chemical and biological weapons issues on November 13th and 14th, 2024.”
Among this year’s speakers are Dr. Yong-Bee Lim, an alumnus of the Biodefense PhD Program and Deputy Director of the Converging Risks Lab and Biosecurity Projects Manager at the Council on Strategic Risks, who will give a talk titled “Technology Democratization and its Implications for CBW Safety and Security: Lessons Learned from Engagement with Non-Traditional Communities.”
Learn more and register here.
One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 Book Launch
The Writer’s Center is hosting a book launch for Dr. Laura Kahn’s new book, One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 (blurb below) on November 23 at 2 pm EST in Bethesda, MD. Learn more and RSVP here.
“One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 unpacks the mysteries of COVID-19’s origins to impart important lessons for future outbreaks. The One Health concept recognizes the interconnected links among the health of humans, animals, plants, and the environment. By comparing the history, science, and clinical presentations of three different coronaviruses—SARS-CoV-1, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)—Kahn uncovers insights with important repercussions for how to prepare and avoid future pandemics. The One Health approach provides a useful framework for examining the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the origins of this zoonotic disease requires investigating the environmental and molecular biological factors that allowed the virus to spread to humans. The book explores the many ways in which the wild animal trade, wet markets, and the camel industry contributed to the spread of the earlier SARS-CoV-1 and MERS coronaviruses. For SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), Kahn examines the biosafety, biosecurity, and bioethics implications of gain-of-function research on pandemic potential pathogens. This book is a must read to understand the geopolitics of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
2024 CBD S&T Conference
From DTRA: “The CBD S&T Conference brings together the most innovative and influential chemical and biological defense community members from around the globe to share insights and collaborate on the emerging chem-bio threats of tomorrow.”
“Join the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA) Chemical and Biological Technologies Department in its role as the Joint Science and Technology Office (JSTO) for Chemical and Biological Defense, an integral component of the Chemical and Biological Defense Program, as we Focus Forward to uncover novel concepts and examine groundbreaking discoveries within the chem-bio defense landscape.”
“The 2024 CBD S&T Conference will be held at the Broward County Convention Center, December 2–5, 2024.”
Learn more and register here.
Health Security Intelligence: Managing Threats Risks and Hazards Post-Covid 19
“As the acute impact of the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, many unaddressed questions remain for Australia about how to better prepare for the next likely health threat, risk or hazard.”
“In addition to how we enhance national public health capacity, what are the important lessons we can learn from the pandemic from national security and biosecurity perspectives?”
“Given the likelihood of another pandemic at some point, an increasingly uncertain geo-political order and the potential exploitation of biotechnology by bad actors how does Australia and its allies better prepare for a future of increasingly complex health security and biological security threats, risks and hazards?”
“This event is for all health security intelligence stakeholders (policy-makers, national security staff, scientists, researchers and clinicians) who work across the one health continuum and national security agencies.”
“It will introduce participants to Charles Sturt’s extensive research agenda across the one health biosecurity, health and biological security and discuss both their national security and scientific implications. You will hear briefings from key researchers across both STEM and social sciences disciplines working on assessing key health security threats, risks and hazards relevant to your work.”
This event will take place in-person and over livestream on December 4 from 2-4 pm AEDT. Learn more and register here.
US AI Safety Institute Issues RFI on Responsible Development of Chem-Bio Models
From AISI: “The U.S. Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute (U.S. AISI), housed within the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), released a Request for Information seeking insight from stakeholders regarding the responsible development and use of chemical and biological (chem-bio) AI models.”
“Input from a broad range of experts in this field will help the U.S. AISI to develop well-informed approaches to assess and mitigate the potential risks of chem-bio AI models, while enabling safe and responsible innovation.”
“Respondents are encouraged to provide concrete examples, best practices, case studies, and actionable recommendations where possible. The full RFI can be found here.”
“The comment period is now open and will close on December 3, 2024, at 11:59PM Eastern Time. Comments can be submitted online at www.regulations.gov, under docket no. 240920-0247.”
Roadmap for Biosecurity and Biodefense Policy in the United States (2018)
The U.S. policy landscape for countering biological threats is split into two main groups: 1) biosecurity, which specifically focuses on preventing theft, diversion, or deliberate malicious use of biological sciences knowledge, skills, materials, and technologies to cause harm; and 2) biodefense, which involves the development of capabilities and knowledge to assess, detect, monitor, respond to, and attribute biological threats. This project involved the first ever systems-based analysis of the entire U.S. biosecurity and biodefense policy landscape, which enabled greater understanding of the functional relationships between policies as of 2017. These analyses, along with reviews of methodologies for measuring policy implementation and historical case studies to better understand factors that lead to opportunity costs, informed the development of a roadmap for implementing biosecurity and biodefense policies that leverages science and technology advances and minimizes security risks. In addition to the roadmap, this study presents two analytic frameworks for evaluating policy implementation and analyzing opportunity costs.
Supplements:
Opportunity Cost Analysis Framework
Historical Case Studies for Opportunity Cost Analysis
Policy Case Study: Synthesis of the Horsepox Virus
The Pandora Report 