Dr. Gregory Koblentz, GMU Biodefense Deputy Director and Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at CFR, has made a slew of media appearances recently discussing all aspects of the developments in Syria, including interview with Al Jazeera, two with CTV, and SunTV. His interview last Satruday with CCTV America on the options available to UN inspectors in the embattled state is particularly incisive – watch it below.
Tag: Syria
The Pandora Report 8.30.13
Highlights include MERS case updates, dengue raging through Central America, Syria’s CW (obviously), eastern equine encephalitis, and the cetacean morbillivirus. Happy Friday, and a very happy Labor Day Weekend to everyone! Stay away from the dolphins!
WHO: MERS global case count 108, 50 deaths
MERS continues to spread throughout Saudi Arabia, with an additional four cases confirmed today. The total global case count is now 108, with a fatality rate of just below 50%. Two of Saudi Arabia’s four most recent cases involved immunocompromised patients, while the other two are children aged 16 and seven respectively. Interestingly, both children are currently asymptomatic, despite testing positive for the virus. The World Health Organization (WHO) has not recommended travel restrictions to Saudi Arabia, promoting instead strong surveillance and testing measures.
World Health Organization – “Globally, from September 2012 to date, WHO has been informed of a total of 108 laboratory-confirmed cases of infection with MERS-CoV, including 50 deaths.Based on the current situation and available information, WHO encourages all Member States to continue their surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and to carefully review any unusual patterns. Health care providers are advised to maintain vigilance. Recent travellers returning from the Middle East who develop SARI should be tested for MERS-CoV as advised in the current surveillance recommendations”.
Dengue fever epidemic sparks public health emergency in Central America
Central America is currently experiencing a serious Dengue outbreak, with over 120,000 cases in three states across the region. If not effectively contained, a number of external factors will likely result in the outbreak “exploding”. The rainy season in the area is set to last another three months, with high heat resulting in ideal breeding grounds for dengue’s mosquito vector. Containment of the outbreak in Honduras particularly has proven challenging, prompting the state to turn to the Red Cross for help. The 2010 outbreak of dengue in the area lead to 1.6 million cases, of which 49,000 were severe. Dengue eradication efforts are hampered by its infection through four, distinct serotypes, no one of which offers cross-protection against the other three.
The Guardian – “The poor suburbs of Central American capitals are the main targets for campaigns to raise public awareness. Poor housing, the lack of a mains water supply and the accumulation of household waste make such neighbourhoods an ideal breeding ground for mosquitoes. The authorities have dispatched paramedics, police and the military to remote villages in order to stamp out the epidemic in the areas most at risk. Latin America is particularly exposed to dengue epidemics, which recur on a three- to five-year cycle. In 2010 the fever caused 132 deaths. ‘Aedes aegypti was eradicated in the subcontinent in the mid-20th century, but with increasing global trade it returned in the 1970s, from Asia,’ says Philippe Brémond, an epidemiologist at France’s Institute of Research for Development (IRD).”
We know everyone’s talking about chemical weapons in Syria (ourselves included), and with President Obama now apparently set on unilateral (ugh) military action in the area, we wager everyone will continue to talk about Syria for a good while longer. We’re including Jeanne Guillemin’s review article because it’s a thorough overview of the storied history and political maneuverings of chemical weapons use. Read it and be an expert.
The Boston Review – “When the present crisis in Syria is resolved, as inevitably it will be, the CWC [Chemical Weapons Convention] must be made universal. It almost is: 188 states adhere to it; 7 are holdouts (Israel, Syria, Egypt, Myanmar, Angola, North Korea, and South Sudan). Syria must allow its chemical weapons to be identified, contained, and destroyed. It should have been done years ago. Israel and Egypt must also be persuaded to join the treaty and comply with it, before more chaos erupts. ‘Almost universal’ is simply not good enough.”
Eastern equine encephalitis threat level raised to ‘high’ in four communities
Ongoing detection of eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) in four communities in Massachusetts has prompted local health authorities to raise threat levels to “high”, encouraging residents to avoid outdoor evening activities until the end of the mosquito season. Although most cases of EEE are aysmptomatic, in severe cases the virus can cause permanent brain damage and death. We can’t remember if we already posted this, but here is an excellent Nature article explaining why it would actually be totally fine if we exterminated all mosquitoes.
Boston – “The EEE threat is high in Easton, Raynham, Taunton, and West Bridgewater. Residents in high-risk areas are urged to avoid evening outdoor events for the remainder of the mosquito season, said the statement from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health…There has been one human case of EEE this year, in a Norfolk County woman in her 80s, who died earlier this month. There were seven cases of EEE in 2012, including three deaths.Symptoms of EEE show up about 3 to 10 days after a person is bit by an infected mosquito and they include high fever, a stiff neck, headache, and lack of energy.”
Because People Will Ask: Measles-like virus may be cause of dolphin deaths on U.S. coast
Included so you can assure concerned friends and families that the virus, which is killing bottlenose dolphins up and down the East Coast, cannot be transmitted to humans. Since July, 333 dolphins – 10 times the normal number for the same period – have died from cetacean morbillivirus, a measles-like virus which is thought to cause immunosuppression. Virginia’s beaches have seen the highest number of strandings, at 174 n the last couple months. While the virus cannot be transmitted to humans, beach goers are advised not to approach any stranded dolphins, as they may carry other bacterial or fungal infections.
National Geographic – “‘Along the Atlantic seaboard, this [outbreak] is extraordinary,’ Rowles said. The last morbillivirus outbreak in the region occurred from June 1987 to May 1988, and resulted in the deaths of at least 900 bottlenose dolphins. Officials are unsure of how long the current outbreak will last. ‘Typically, outbreaks will last as long as there are susceptible animals,’ Rowles said. But if it plays out like the 1987-1988 outbreak, ‘we’re looking at mortality being higher and morbillivirus traveling southwards and continuing until May 2014,’ she added. Right now, experts think this current outbreak is probably due to a dip in herd immunity.”
(image credit: Jeff Kraus/Flickr)
In-Depth: The Syrian “Red Line” and the Importance of Multilateral Action
The Chemical Weapons Red Line: a tedious response to the Syrian crisis and how international treaties should guide multilateral reaction
By Chris Brown, PhD Candidate
Inspectors from the United Nations (UN) are expected to report their findings on Saturday about whether chemical weapons (CW) were used in rocket attacks in Syria last week. Depending on the degradation rate and other properties of a chemical agent, if any, used in the attack, the UN investigation may also reveal what kind of weapon(s) was deployed. Sarin and VX nerve agents top the list of likely possibilities given the types of symptoms and number of casualties reported after the attacks. But determining if and which chemical agent(s) was used in Syria is only the beginning of what should be a far more complex investigation before any international action occurs. It is crucial to determine who used the agent, against whom, and what international legal obligations the user was bound by at the time of use. Only then can the international community establish a clear basis for action in Syria.
Popular opinion at present holds that Syrian President Bashar al-Asaad’s forces likely deployed CW against rebel groups and civilians. Despite the fact that the regime risks loss of power by inviting international intervention as a result of CW use, and that CW use would signal waning confidence in its forces’ ability to maintain control through conventional tactics; international opposition to the al-Asaad government, led largely by the U.S., maintains that the ruling government is to blame. “There is also very little doubt, and should be no doubt for anyone who approaches this logically, that the Syrian regime is responsible for the use of chemical weapons on August 21st outside of Damascus,” White House Spokesman Jay Carney said Tuesday.[1] Claims that Syrian rebel forces have the know-how and motivation to launch CW attacks lose strength given that the alleged CW-containing rockets were fired on a rebel-controlled region of Damascus, where civilians in the area sympathize with opposition forces.[2]
Given the assumption that Syrian forces used CW against rebels, the international intolerance for the use of CW on moral grounds alone seems to compel some sort of action. But there is little legal footing on which to base an intervention under the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), the primary international agreement aimed at preventing this kind of behavior by outlawing production, stockpiling and use of CW. Why? Syria never signed the treaty.
Other international agreements can and should be invoked in this situation, however. Despite not being a state party to the CWC, Syria has been a party to the Geneva Protocol since 1968.[3] The Geneva Protocol prohibits use of CW, but does not outlaw development and stockpiling, an omission that is commonly interpreted as prohibiting only first-use of CW in conflicts. Unless more conclusive evidence surfaces that rebel forces deployed CW against Syrian troops first, Syria is presumably in violation of its obligations under the Geneva Protocol, breaches of which are handled through the United Nations (UN) Security Council.
However, the formal channel of redress for Geneva Protocol violations pits the U.S. against China and, perhaps more importantly, Russia, a fairly reliable backer of the al-Asaad government. Despite the fact that Russian and Chinese participation in diplomatic efforts failed to stop alleged Syrian CW use several weeks before reports of other gas attacks in the spring leaves both states less than poised to veto U.N. security council authorization of action, Russia is reportedly bolstering its naval forces in the Mediterranean Sea. At best, this is a sign of solidarity with al-Asaad and surely an indicator that Obama and U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power will have no easy time securing the security council nod for military strikes against Syria.
Though some indirect options for continuing to support rebel forces in Syria remain viable—providing them with effective medical countermeasures and protective equipment against the state forces’ CW, for instance—direct military intervention (e.g., missile strikes) may be the only effective action left in the U.S. toolbox. However, direct U.S. action stands to produce a number of negative consequences that must be considered, including provocation of Syria’s allies, including Iran; and loss of support from Russia and China against other atrocities in the ongoing Syrian conflict. Moreover, the U.S. must be able to guarantee the stability of any new Syrian government and its ability to safely and securely handle whatever CW, biological weapons (BW), or other weapons of mass destruction may be in al-Asaad’s stockpile if and when he is ousted.
With either course of action—continued indirect support or new direct intervention—it is worth considering two additional tasks: first, at the outset of any new Syrian government, implementation of the same type of coercive diplomacy that was employed in dealing with Iraq’s BW programs in the early 1990s. The terms of the ceasefire with Iraq after the first Gulf War required Iraq to ratify the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention.[4] If the international community (or the U.S. alone) helps a new government ascend to power in Syria, or intervenes to defeat or subdue the al-Asaad regime, it would be wise to insist that Syria accede to the CWC. Second, Syria’s alleged acquisition or development from component chemicals of sarin gas may also warrant further investigation into the supplier of materials or foreign assistance. The CWC prohibits any export of Schedule 1 chemicals (including sarin and its methylphosphonyl difluoride precursor). A state party to the CWC guilty of helping Syria acquire or develop sarin would likely be in violation of the treaty and should face appropriate consequences.
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Chris Brown is a PhD candidate in biodefense at George Mason University. He holds a Master of Public Health in biostatistics and epidemiology from the University of Nebraska Medical Center, and received his undergraduate degree in biology with a minor in Spanish from the University of Louisville. Contact him at cbrown12@gmu.edu or on Twitter @ckbrow07.
[1] Jay Carney, “Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney,” August 27, 2013, accessed August 28, 2013, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/27/press-briefing-press-secretary-jay-carney-8272013/.
[2] Eyder Peralta, “Is It Possible the Syrian Rebels (Not Assad) Used Chemical Weapons?,” National Public Radio, August 27, 2013, accessed August 28, 2013, http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/08/27/216172145/is-it-possible-the-syrian-rebels-not-assad-used-chemical-weapons.
[3] “Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or Other Gases, and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare,” June 17, 1925, accessed May 1, 2013, http://www.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/States.xsp?xp_viewStates=XPages_NORMStatesParties&xp_treatySelected=921B4414B13E58B8C12563CD002D693B/.
[4] “NTI Country Profiles, Iraq, Overview,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, December 2011, accessed May 1, 2013, http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/iraq/.
(image courtesy of Syria Freedom House/Flickr)
Slideshow: The Chemical Weapons of Syria
In the face of what seems to be recent chemical weapons use by the Assad regime on the Syrian rebels, and potential US military action as a result, now is a good time to gain a basic understanding of the key chemical weapons in play. Charles Blair, writing in his capacity as a columnist with the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, has a new multimedia piece out in which he succinctly describes the history and effects of six of the most common chemical weapons agents used today.
View the full slideshow here.
(image courtesy of R. Sameer/Flickr)
Blair discusses Syrian CW use on Rachel Maddow Show
GMU Biodefense Adjunct Professor and Federation of American Scientist Senior Fellow on State and Non-State Threats Charles Blair was interviewed by MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow yesterday on Syrian chemical weapons use. Blair discussed the difficulty of ascertaining, as outsiders, whether or not the claims of chemical weapons use against the Syrian rebels are legitimate. Watch the full interview below.
Blair on Syrian Chemical Weapons
Charles Blair, GMU Biodefense Adjunct Professor and the Senior Fellow on State and Non-State Threats at the Federation of American Scientists, was quoted extensively in the Washington Post’s piece yesterday on Assad’s possible use of chemical weapons against the rebels.
Speaking on the grisly effects of nerve agents, Blair explained, “There’s muscle twitching. Then, as the muscle twitching gets more and more spasmodic, mucus comes out of the nose and mouth and you basically go into convulsions on the ground. People don’t survive this.”
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is accused of using nerve agent, possibly sarin, on sleeping civilians in the suburbs of Damascus. UN Inspectors have not yet been granted access to the areas of the alleged attack. Estimates of the death toll range from 136 to 1300, with no way for outside validation.
For information on a potential US response to a chemical weapons attack, see our CBRN Policy Brief, “Is the US Prepared for a Chemical Attack?“, by Dr. Alex Garza, GMU Biodefense Affiliate Research Scientist and former Assistant Secretary for Health Affairs and Chief Medical Officer at the Department of Homeland Security.
(image courtesy of Syria Freedom House)
The Pandora Report 7.12.13
Highlights: the Science, Safety, and Security newsletter, wild polio in Israel, proliferation concerns in Syria, H7N9 – the pandemic?, and H1N1 in Chile. Happy Friday!
For those of you who may have missed it, the Science, Safety, and Security Quarterly June newsletter is out, and features articles on dual use research of concern, HHS’ recent international participation in BWC activities, and the International Biological Threat Reduction program. It’s an excellent resource for anyone working in fields related to biodefense, biosecurity, or non-proliferation.
WHO Sends Mission to Israel Following Detection of Wild Poliovirus in Sewage
The World Health Organization last week completed a five-day mission in Israel, following detection of wild polio virus in the sewage of the country’s Southern District. Despite detection of the virus, no new polio cases have emerged. In response to the virus’ detection, Israel is starting a supplemental oral vaccination campaign, in addition to existing vaccination matters. This isn’t an overreaction. For those of you who may not know, polio eradication remains a top priority of the international health community, with the eradication efforts rendering the virus’ endemic in just 3 countries. Therefore any time it pops up naturally, people get understandably nervous.
WHO – “Israel has systematically conducted environmental sampling for many years, and the poliovirus was detected thanks to this vigilance. Public health authorities continue to monitor the situation carefully, and measures have been taken to increase surveillance and reporting for possible human cases, regardless of age. The aim of the supplementary immunization campaign is to protect any children in the country who may have missed routine vaccinations for any reason. In southern areas, adults are also being assessed and those thought to be susceptible are being immunized.”
Proliferation concerns mount in Syria
As the civil war in Syria continues, the United Kingdom is considering supplying the rebels with protective equipment against biological and chemical agents. UK intelligence reports have listed ricin, VX, mustard gas, and sarin as all possible chemical and biological agents in Assad’s armory. Concerns over proliferation of the agents and weapons to terrorist organizations were fueled by last month’s report that al Qaeda had attempted to access chemical weapons stockpiles in support of the Syrian rebels. Does anyone else feel like that “red line” is looking pretty darn thin?
Irish Times – “The danger was underlined by MI6 chief Sir John Sawers who told the committee there was the risk of ‘a highly worrying proliferation around the time of the regime fall’. The committee said: ‘There has to be a significant risk that some of the country’s chemical weapons stockpile could fall into the hands of those with links to terrorism, in Syria or elsewhere in the region – if this happens, the consequences could be catastrophic.’ British prime minister David Cameron disclosed last month that al-Qaeda-linked elements fighting the regime had already attempted to acquire chemical weapons for probable use in Syria.”
Scientists: H7N9 Avian Flu Has Pandemic Potential
Just when you thought it was gone! In a piece published in Nature on Wednesday, an international team of scientists determined that H7N9 could be just a couple amino acid mutations away from effective person-to-person transmission pandemic potential. The two teams, from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the University of Tokyo, determined that H7N9 replicates effectively in several mammamlian hosts with immune systems similar to humans, among them monkeys and ferrets. The good news? Most of the strains tested are susceptible to standard antivirals.
Rianovosti – “They also established that approximately one third of ferrets became infected by droplet spread.’H7N9 viruses combine several features of pandemic influenza viruses, that is their ability to bind to and replicate in human cells and the ability to transmit via respiratory droplets,’ [flu expert Yoshihiro Kawaoka] said. These two features are necessary, although not sufficient, to cause a pandemic.’ In monkeys, the virus could efficiently infect cells in both the upper and lower respiratory tract. Conventional human flu viruses are typically restricted to the upper airway of infected nonhuman primates.”
Chile confirms 33 deaths from H1N1
The Chilean health ministry confirmed Wednesday that of the 33 H1N1 deaths this year, nearly half had occurred in the last few weeks. The South American nation is currently experiencing a small outbreak, with a large and effective vaccination campaign halting the virus’ spread.
APA – “‘Today it appears to be under control, I say this with extreme caution. In epidemiologic week number 27, we do not have serious new cases,’ [Health Minister] Manalich said at a press conference. ‘We just have three patients with the flu in the intensive care unit of the hospital of the town of Iquique,’ said Manalich, adding ‘walk-in consultations due to the flu have fallen 25 percent from what we had before.'”
(image courtesy of the Polio Eradication Initiative)
Dr. Koblentz interviewed by CFR on Syria
Dr. Gregory Koblentz, GMU Biodefense Deputy Director and Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow was interviewed by the Council on Foreign Relations regarding the most recent developments in Syria. Last week, US intelligence confirmed Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s use of chemical weapons on the Syrian rebels. Speaking on the differences between prior claims of chemical weapons use and these most recent assessments, Dr. Koblentz stated,
“There are two major differences between this intelligence assessment and the one released back in April. In the earlier assessment, the Obama administration reported that the intelligence community had “varying degrees of confidence” that the Assad regime had used chemical weapons, indicating disagreement within agencies on the reliability of the evidence. In this updated version, the intelligence community now reports that it has a ‘high confidence’ that the Assad regime used chemical weapons.
The second difference is that this report provides more details on the types of evidence underlying this new assessment: ‘multiple, independent streams of information,’ including ‘reporting regarding Syrian officials planning and executing regime chemical weapons attacks; reporting that includes descriptions of the time, location, and means of attack; and descriptions of physiological symptoms that are consistent with exposure to a chemical weapons agent.'”
The detailed and timely interview also discusses the next steps for the UN, as well as implications and possible courses of action available to the United States. Read the full interview on the CFR website here.
Charles Blair: Why Assad Won’t Use His Chemical Weapons
Check out GMU adjunct faculty member and Federation of American Scientists Senior Fellow Charles Blair’s comprehensive piece on Foreign Policy about Assad’s weapons.
“Since the Syrian uprising began in March 2011, concerns over the country’s chemical arsenal have largely reflected the fear that terrorists might steal them in the chaotic aftermath of Bashar al Assad’s overthrow. Military use against the Free Syrian Army seemed less likely, largely because the use of unconventional weapons would violate international law and norms. If it broke that taboo, the regime would risk losing Russian and Chinese support, legitimizing foreign military intervention, and, ultimately, hastening its own end. As one Syrian official said, “We would not commit suicide.”
But this week chemical anxieties shifted. President Barack Obama warned Syria that “[t]he use of chemical weapons is and would be totally unacceptable” — a comment echoed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, both of whom said that use of the arsenal would cross a “red line” for the United States. Despite these admonitions — and a barrage of reports that Syria is preparing to deploy its chemical arsenal — it remains doubtful that Damascus is at the point where the use of chemical weapons against rebels makes tactical or strategic sense.”
Read more here.
The Pandora Report 