This week’s Pandora Report covers the rush to find the former Assad regime’s hidden chemical weapons, a recent study on H5N1’s potential to become an efficient human pathogen, Nobel laureates’ call for the Senate to block RFK Jr. from becoming HHS Secretary, and more.
Assad Regime Falls
On Sunday, Syrian rebels continued their advance, taking the capital city of Damascus and forcing the country’s long-time leader, President Bashar al-Assad, to flee to Moscow. This ended the country’s 13-year-long civil war and toppled a brutal dictatorship known to have, among other things, used chemical weapons against its own civilians. Now, the country is strapped for cash and being led by opposition forces with limited experience in governance.
Adding to the chaos is the mad dash to locate the former Assad regime’s chemical weapons it hid from inspectors. Among the list of missing weapons are more than 360 tons of mustard gas that the Assad regime admitted to making, but never fully accounted for. There are also five missing tons of precursors for sarin that the Assad regime claimed were “Lost during transportation, due to traffic accidents.”
The OPCW said it is monitoring the situation, reaffirming its commitment to “clarifying gaps, discrepancies, and inconsistencies in Syrian chemical weapons declaration amidst political transition.” Rebels in the south of the country have reached out to the OPCW for support in safely disposing of a cache of CW they found. One US official told the press the US is working with other countries in the Middle East to prevent these weapons from falling into the wrong hands. Meanwhile, Israel reported that it has destroyed CW and other weapons caches while seizing areas along its shared border with the country it claims are part of a demilitarized buffer zone.
Further Reading and Listening:
- “39 Bonus Episode: Destroying Syria’s Chemical Weapons with Jerry Smith,” Poisons and Pestilence
- “Syria’s President Had Stocks of Chemical Weapons. What Happens to Them Now?” Aryn Baker, The New York Times
- “Israel Does World a Service by Hitting Assad’s Chemical Weapons Caches,” Andrea Stricker, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
New Study Finds Single Mutation in Bovine Influenza H5N1 Hemagglutinin Switches Specificity to Human Receptors
A recent study in Science found that a single glutamine to leucine mutation in clade 2.3.4.4b-an H5N1 virus widespread in US dairy cattle that has caused a few mild human cases-at residue 226 of the virus hemagglutinin “was sufficient to enact the change from avian to human specificity.” This means that this virus that currently cannot infect humans very easily could be just one mutation away from being able to do so much more effectively. This finding alone does not mean that this mutation in nature would be guaranteed to make this virus an efficient human pathogen, but it might mean that this version of the virus has a higher zoonotic potential than other H5N1 viruses.
Further Reading:
- “A One Health Examination of The Worsening HPAI H5N1 (Bird Flu) Epizootic/Outbreak,” Laura H. Kahn
- “We’re Pandemic Experts. Here’s What Worries Us Most About Bird Flu,” Jillian Wilson, HuffPost
Investigation Launched into Queensland Lab Incident
An investigation has been launched by Australian authorities into the “major breach” of biosafety protocols that occurred at a state-run laboratory in Queensland in 2021. It was revealed that 323 virus samples-nearly 100 of which were live samples of Hendra virus-were missing. According to Health Minister Tim Nicholls, the incident was only discovered in August of 2023, and the lab is unable to confirm whether the materials were removed or destroyed, though there is no suggestion that they were taken or stolen from the lab.
Top Wuhan Virologist Says WIV Holds No Close Relatives to SARS-CoV-2
Shi Zhengli, the virologist leading coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) when the COVID-19 pandemic began, presented data on dozens of new coronaviruses collected from bats in southern China at a conference in Japan last week. Shi has said repeatedly that SARS-CoV-2 was never seen nor studied in her lab, but some have continued to insist that one of the bat coronaviruses collected by her team was closely related to it. As a result, Shi promised to sequence the genomes of the viruses stored in her freezers and release the resulting data.
The analysis presented at the conference has not been peer reviewed and includes data from the whole genomes of 56 new betacoronaviruses in addition to some partial sequences. All of these viruses were collected between 2004 and 2021. Shi explained at the conference that none of the viruses she has sequenced are the most recent ancestors of SARS-CoV-2 and that “We didn’t find any new sequences which are more closely related to SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2.”
The known viruses that are closest to SARS-CoV-2 were found in bats in Laos and southern China. However, years (or decades) have passed since these viruses split from their common ancestor with SARS-CoV-2. Shi has long since collaborated with EcoHealth Alliance, which previously received US federal funding that was suspended because of inadequate oversight of research activities at the WIV. This collaboration has produced a larger analysis of more than 230 sequences that EcoHealth Alliance’s Peter Daszak says will be submitted for peer review and publication in the coming weeks.
Further Reading: “PLA Looks into China-US Collaboration in Biosecurity Research,” Stephen Chen, SCMP
75+ Nobel Laureates Urge Senate Not to Confirm RFK Jr.
77 winners of the Nobel Prize in Medicine, Chemistry, Physics, and Economics have signed a letter (below) urging the Senate not to confirm President-Elect Trump’s pick to lead HHS-Robert F. Kennedy Jr.. This is a rare example of Nobel laureates coming together against a US Cabinet choice, according to Sir Richard Roberts, winner of the 1993 Nobel Prize in Medicine and a drafter of the letter. The letter criticizes Kennedy’s lack of experience in public health in addition to his widely criticized opinions on topics like drinking water fluoridation and vaccines for measles and polio. The letter reads in part, “In view of his record, placing Mr. Kennedy in charge of DHHS would put the public’s health in jeopardy and undermine America’s global leadership in the health sciences, in both the public and commercial sectors…We strongly urge you to vote against the confirmation of his appointment as Secretary of the DHHS.”
Further Reading:
- “Kennedy’s Lawyer Has Asked the F.D.A. to Revoke Approval of the Polio Vaccine,” Christina Jewett and Sheryl Gay Stolberg, The New York Times
- “Most Americans Distrust Trump, RFK Jr. on Health: Axios-Ipsos Poll,” Adriel Bettelheim, Axios
- “Fact-Checkers Cannot Save Us,” Eliot Higgins, The New York Times
“2024 ABSA Conference Summary”
Biodefense MS Student Lena Kropke discusses her experience at the 67th Annual Biosafety and Biosecurity Conference in this Pandora Report event summary, writing in part “Attending this conference not only reaffirmed that biosafety and biosecurity are vital components of international security, but also showcased the incredible dedication of professionals who work tirelessly toward this mission. Moreover, it offered an introduction to an amazing network of biosafety and security professionals.”
Read more about Lena’s time attending the conference in Phoenix here.
“Disincentivizing Bioweapons: Theory and Policy Approaches”
This NTI essay collection is “…designed to encourage the exploration and identification of potential solutions to disincentivize states from developing or using biological weapons,” and aims to “bridge theory and practical policy-relevant approaches to develop new approaches to invigorate international efforts to reduce biological threats.” Its fifth essay, “Two Competing Bioweapons Nonproliferation Policies: Deterrence by Denial and Discussion,” was authored by Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley, Associate Professor at the Schar School.
Mitigating Arboviral Threat and Strengthening Public Health Preparedness: Proceedings of a Workshop
From NASEM: “Arboviruses, or viruses carried by arthropods like mosquitoes or ticks, are responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide each year. As the climate changes globally, the geographic distribution of these diseases, including Zika, dengue, chikungunya, West Nile, and yellow fever, are steadily expanding. The National Academies Forum on Microbial Threats hosted a public workshop in December 2023 to explore avenues of threat reduction from known and emerging arboviral diseases in the context of public health preparedness and capacity building. The workshop featured talks from experts in entomology, public health, ecology, virology, immunology, disease modeling, and urban planning.”
Read this Proceedings of a Workshop for free here.
“The Current Pathogenicity and Potential Risk Assessment of Nipah Virus as Potential Cause of “Disease X”: A Narrative Review”
Mehnaz et al. recently published this article in Health Science Reports: “Background and Aims…The World Health Organization (WHO) recognized the potential for a severe international epidemic and introduced the term “Disease X” to classify pathogens that not yet identified. The Nipah virus (NiV) is highly dangerous due to its zoonotic nature, high mortality rate, and ability to cause severe clinical symptoms in humans. In this review, we gather the latest information on the NiV and its potential to become a significant candidate for Disease X.”
“Methods…We performed a thorough review of articles published in PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar using appropriate MeSH terms and keywords. Studies reported NiV infection were considered for this review.”
“Results…The NiV exhibits different epidemiological patterns in different countries that calls for customized prevention and control strategies. Genetic analysis highlights NiV’s ability to mutate that alters possible treatment options. Transmission typically involves bats as the primary reservoir, with humans becoming infected either through intermediate hosts or food. This shows NiV’s complex nature, including its ability to reach the central nervous system through the olfactory nerve. Promising treatment options, such as monoclonal antibodies, antivirals, and ongoing vaccine research, provide hope. However, the virus’s adaptability, human-to-human transmission, and the lack of specific antiviral therapy raise concerns about its potential to cause a global pandemic. The interconnection between animals, humans, and the environment stresses the need for a One Health approach to tackle emerging infectious disease by NiV.”
“Conclusion…Global collaboration, surveillance, and research investments are imperative for the preparation of future pandemics. The ongoing COVID-19 challenges underscoring the critical need for sustained scientific endeavors, global leadership, and recognition of the prominence of NiV as a candidate for the potential Disease X.”
“Engineering Biology Public Trust Survey Findings”
From the UK’s Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, these findings are the result of a survey on public perceptions of engineering biology in relation to five application areas: health, agriculture and food, low carbon fuels, chemicals and materials, and waste and environment. Key findings from this survey include “The majority of respondents felt comfortable with using new and emerging technologies on a day-to-day basis, but relatively few could explain what engineering biology is,” “There was a strong belief amongst respondents that applications of engineering biology could be useful. Similarly, the majority were comfortable with each of the specific applications and believe that they will be positive for society,” “There was broad agreement that the government is well placed to make decisions about the use of engineering biology but the public should also be involved in decision making,” and more.
“CSR Biodefense Scorecard: Winter 2024 Update”
From the Council on Strategic Risks: “In the fall of 2023, we kicked off our Biodefense Scorecard series to help inform the public on the progress and implementation status of past CSR recommendations on reducing biological risks. This update captures several areas of sustained positive action across pathogen early warning, diplomacy, and biomanufacturing.”
“Ignoring the Real Biowarfare Threat”
David Heslop and Joel Keep discuss the potential implications of recent renovations at Sergiev Posad-6 in this piece from the Lowy Institute, writing in part “While much attention has been paid to nuclear arms, Washington and Moscow must also address biological weapons, which both nations claimed to renounce many years ago. The fate of such programs is not only a matter for Russia and the United States, but for global health security at large.”
“Instrumentalising Biological Weapons-Related Allegations: Russia’s Compliance Politics and the Norms Against Biological Weapons”
Una Jakob recently published this working paper with CBWNet discussing Russia’s use of BWC compliance procedures and their effect on norms against BW. Jakob explains in part of the paper’s executive summary, “Seen in this light, the Russian activities may counterintuitively have contributed to strengthening the norms against biological weapons at the discursive level, as no actor has called them into question and as their validity has been reaffirmed repeatedly in the process, including by Russia itself. This stands in contrast, however, to Russia’s policy which may contest biological weapons norms at the action level. This discrepancy between the discursive and practical level and its implications for norm strength merit further theoretical attention. On a policy level, it will be important to increase transparency, counter disinformation, and strengthen the means to demonstrate, verify and enhance confidence in compliance with the BWC. This would also strengthen the possibilities to address biological weapons-related allegations, including those made in bad faith, and help sustain the norms against biological weapons comprehensively and in the long term.”
“Workshop on S&T Developments with Relevance for the CWC and BWC”
Anna Krin and Gunnar Jeremias edited this CBWNet working paper detailing a workshop hosted in June at Hamburg University focused on challenges and opportunities facing biological and chemical arms control. Jeremias explains in the introduction, “Throughout the workshop, four panels delved into key topics: the general concept and application of scientific and technological advice in arms control in general and particularly in chemical and biological arms control; current developments in science and technology that may necessitate attention; potential frameworks for organizing verification under the CWC and the prospects for institution building for S&T advice and verification within the BWC; and the technologies and governance methods that could be employed to enhance the efficacy of arms control measures…The insights gathered during these discussions aim to contribute to the ongoing discourse on arms control, ensuring that both the BWC and CWC remain vital in a landscape marked by rapid scientific change. This compendium encapsulates the collaborative efforts and perspectives of workshop participants, reflecting a shared commitment to advancing arms control in an increasingly complex world.”
“High-Impact, Low-Probability: NATO-EUROPOL Cooperation in Countering the CBRN Terrorist Threat to Europe”
This JCBRN Defence COE report by Mathias Katsuya “…draws on secondary-source research and insights provided by JCBRN Defence COE personnel as well as Europol’s CBRN-E Team Leader. An initial threat assessment is followed by a review of Europol’s CBRN capabilities, centring on the role of its European Counter-Terrorism Centre and inhouse CBRN-E Team as key nodes in law enforcement information-sharing, capacity-building, and operational coordination. Having identified key doctrinal and capability overlaps with NATO in addition to a stated commitment by Europol’s CBRN-E Team to enhance its civil-military relations, the report outlines a three-pillar approach to deepening connections between NATO and Europol: short-term measures to foster staff-level contacts in both organisations, a formalised relationship between Europol’s CBRN-E Team and NATO’s JCBRN Defence COE, and deeper institutional linkages to effectively confront current and emerging CBRN threats.”
“Hybrid Threats in the CBRN Environment: Challenges and Implications”
This JCBRN Defence COE paper by Paulina Frederike Gogacz discusses hybrid CBRN threats and their use by actors like Russia. Gogacz explains in the paper’s summary that “An analysis of the six strategic enablers outlined in NATO’s Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Defence Policy (2022) indicates important steps to ameliorate current defences and prepare NATO and its member states for future hybrid CBRN threats, thereby increasing overall resilience. They include important aspects: robust intelligence-sharing mechanisms to ensure timely and accurate threat information; comprehensive exercises to simulate and prepare for various CBRN scenarios; strong partnerships both within the alliance and with external entities to foster cooperation and resource sharing; effective strategic communication to manage information and public perception; collaborative scientific research to advance technological capabilities and countermeasures; and the resilience of medical infrastructure to ensure a rapid and effective response to CBRN incidents. These steps collectively aim to bolster NATO’s preparedness and adaptability in the face of evolving hybrid CBRN threats.”
“Securing a Strategic Advantage in Biosecurity for NATO”
Max Breet and Lauren Ross recently authored this commentary for RUSI, writing in their summary “NATO should recognise the importance of biosecurity by understanding it as a new domain. This would allow the Alliance to more effectively leverage existing structures to defend itself against hybrid biological threats.”
“The Rise of Mpox in a Post-Smallpox World”
McQuiston et al. recently published this article in Emerging Infectious Diseases: “Reports of mpox are rising in Africa where the disease is endemic and in new countries where the disease has not been previously seen. The 2022 global outbreak of clade II mpox and an ongoing outbreak of the more lethal clade I mpox highlight the pandemic potential for monkeypox virus. Waning population immunity after the cessation of routine immunization for smallpox plays a key role in the changing epidemiologic patterns of mpox. Sustained human-to-human transmission of mpox is occurring widely in the context of insufficient population immunity, fueling genetic mutations that affect the accuracy of some diagnostic tests and that could lead to changing virulence. Additional research should address complex challenges for control of mpox, including improved diagnostics and medical countermeasures. The availability of vaccines should be expanded not only for outbreak response but also for broader routine use for persons in mpox-endemic countries.”
“Confronting Risks of Mirror Life”
Adamala et al. recently published this Science Policy Forum piece, writing in part, “All known life is homochiral. DNA and RNA are made from “right-handed” nucleotides, and proteins are made from “left-handed” amino acids. Driven by curiosity and plausible applications, some researchers had begun work toward creating lifeforms composed entirely of mirror-image biological molecules. Such mirror organisms would constitute a radical departure from known life, and their creation warrants careful consideration. The capability to create mirror life is likely at least a decade away and would require large investments and major technical advances; we thus have an opportunity to consider and preempt risks before they are realized. Here, we draw on an in-depth analysis of current technical barriers, how they might be eroded by technological progress, and what we deem to be unprecedented and largely overlooked risks (1). We call for broader discussion among the global research community, policy-makers, research funders, industry, civil society, and the public to chart an appropriate path forward.”
Bonus: Read Carl Zimmer’s discussion of this warning in The New York Times here.
NEW: OneLab Network Webinar
“Clinical laboratories must be alert for unusual and potentially infectious agents and immediately notify their Laboratory Response Network (LRN) reference laboratory if routine diagnostic testing results in the potential identification of rare and unusual infectious agents that may be used in a bioterrorist attack or other bio-agent incident. This webinar will describe the LRN and highlight the clinical laboratory’s role and responsibilities in initiating contact with their LRN. Join us as we share an example of a response, new tools, and valuable resources to aid in the clinical laboratory’s response.”
This event will take place on December 17 at 12 pm ET. Register for this event here.
NEW: Understanding the Introduction of Pathogens into Humans- Preventing Patient Zero: A Workshop
“The past few decades have seen the emergence of several diseases with drastic public health and economic consequences. Understanding routes of pathogen emergence and transmission is critical to preventing and mitigating disease spillover and amplification. The National Academies Forum on Microbial Threats will host a hybrid public workshop to address gaps in understanding of disease emergence, with a focus on human-animal interaction and laboratory biosafety. The workshop will explore how applications of existing policy structures, emerging technologies, and actionable research can improve biosecurity measures and prevention of future disease emergence.”
This event will take place on January 15 and 16. Learn more and register here.
NEW: Rise of the Zombie Bugs: The Surprising Science of Parasitic Mind-Control
Johns Hopkins APL’s colloquium will feature Mindy Weisberger, author of the upcoming book Rise of the Zombie Bugs: The Surprising Science of Parasitic Mind-Control: “Zombies are all around us—insect zombies, that is. In Rise of the Zombie Bugs, Mindy Weisberger explores the eerie yet fascinating phenomenon of real-life zombification in the insect class and among other invertebrates. Zombifying parasites reproduce by rewriting their victims’ neurochemistry, transforming them into the “walking dead”: armies of cicadas, spiders, and other hosts that helplessly follow a zombifier’s commands, living only to serve the parasite’s needs until death’s sweet release (and often beyond).”
Learn more about this January 31 event here.
How to Avoid Human-Made Pandemics
From the Asia Centre for Health Security: “Studying viruses that could potentially cause outbreaks is one of the most effective ways to reduce the risk of pandemics. However, this type of research—especially when it involves collecting samples from the field and manipulating pathogens—can unintentionally lead to a pandemic if not managed carefully. Dr Lentzos will discuss her findings from the Pathogen Project, which brought together an international taskforce of scientists, biosecurity and public health experts, ethicists, and civil society leaders to seek consensus on this question: Can we agree on ways to manage research that carries pandemic risk as safely, securely and responsibly as possible?”
This event will take place on January 23 at 8 pm (GMT +8:00) via Zoom. RSVP here.
Preparedness in Rural Communities: National and State/Local Perspectives and Plans
From Penn State: “The COVID-19 pandemic and recent hurricanes have thrust the preparedness of rural communities into the national spotlight. At the federal level, the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have recently released national goals and plans for preparedness of rural communities. The overall objective of this virtual, 2-day mini-symposium is to identify opportunities in public health and agricultural preparedness and response in rural communities. The mini-symposium will focus upon national perspectives on Thursday, January 30 and the state/local perspectives on Friday, January 31. Speakers include representatives of the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, the Department of Homeland Security, US Department of Agriculture, the USA Center for Rural Public Health Preparedness, and state/local leaders.”
This event will take place on January 30 and 31, from 11 am to 2 pm ET each day. Learn more and register here.
Cyberbiosecurity Summit
From Johns Hopkins APL and Bio-ISAC: “Advancements in biomanufacturing and biotechnology drive the science we need to thrive, everything from apples to vaccines. The Cyberbiosecurity Summit 2025 convenes leading experts in biotechnology, biosecurity, and cybersecurity to explore the intersection of these fields and discuss the strategies to create a safe, secure future for us all.”
This event will take place February 25-26 in Laurel, MD. Register here and review the call for sessions here (closes 12/12).
NEW: The Independent Panel Solicits Views and Insights on Pandemic Prevention, and Response Efforts
“The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, co-chaired by HE Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and RH Helen Clark, welcomes you to share your insights and expertise on the status of international and regional pandemic-related reform processes and initiatives, and how progress can be continued and accelerated in the months and years ahead.”
Learn more about this survey and submit by December 20 here.
The Pandora Report 