Category: Pandora Report

Exploring the Frontiers of Innovation to Tackle Microbial Threats

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) released proceedings from a workshop, dubbed Exploring the Frontiers of Innovation to Tackle Microbial Threats, help in December 2019. The workshop occurred, fittingly, in the same month as the birth of SARS-CoV-2, the viral agent of the COVID-19 pandemic the world is currently besieged by. This 1.5-day workshop of the Forum on Microbial Threats examined key developments in scientific, technological, and social innovations against microbial threats: diagnostics, vaccine development, antimicrobial therapies, nonpharmaceutical interventions, and disease surveillance tools. The proceedings outline important lessons learned, particularly regarding spurred innovations, from the poliovirus eradication campaign as well as the the on-the-ground work to quell Ebola virus disease outbreaks in West Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Dr. Rick Bright, the former director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), moderated the panel on incubating R&D through novel ecosystems. The output also includes content from panels regarding systematic approaches to motivate innovations in antimicrobial resistance R&D, barriers to access and use of innovations, and strategies to overcome barriers to innovation uptake. The full report can be found here.

FAS Announces the COVID-19 Rapid Response Task Force

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) announced the launch of its COVID-19 Rapid Response Task Force, an amalgamation of dozens of scientists and experts from across the United States. The Task Force is being established as a resource for federal and state legislators as well as other policymakers seeking sound scientific information regarding COVID-19 related topics. Such topics span biomedical research needs, diagnostic test development, and contact tracing challenges, all of which are important to reopening while containing the virus. The Task Force provides an open channel of communication to experts in numerous areas of need.

Student Spotlight: Laura Schmidt Denlinger

Schar School Biodefense PhD student Laura Schmidt Denlinger was promoted to the role of Deputy Team Chief for Counterproliferation Programs in the State Department Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation‘s Office of Cooperative Threat Reduction (ISN/CTR). As such, she coordinates CTR capacity-building programs that strengthen foreign partners’ ability to implement United Nations Security Council Resolutions regarding WMD proliferation by North Korea and Iran, as well as the Chemical Security Program, Partnership for Nuclear Threat Reduction Program, and other lines of effort to counter emerging WMD proliferation threats.

GHSA Chair COVID-19 Statement

Dr. Roland Driece, Chair of the Global Health Security Agenda, recently provided a statement on the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the role of the GHSA2024. Emphasizing the role of international coordination and unification of efforts from governments to NGOs, Driece noted that this event should not be seen as an indicator that our efforts to prepare have failed, but rather that “Because of the work of GHSA, we have more information than in any previous outbreak about which countries have the most prepared systems, and where the international community needs to direct assistance. As countries and partners work to respond to spread of COVID-19, national plans supported by the International Health Regulations and Joint External Evaluations are guiding action and providing resources for decision making, prioritisation, and actions.” Through the extraordinary efforts of everyone ranging from lab to information systems, this naturally occurring event coordinated to respond and it will require the continued investment in preparedness to response and prevent future pandemics.

New Evidence on Disease Dynamics

The raging pandemic has spurred a deluge of interesting new and early release articles in Emerging Infectious Diseases, a journal published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). A study transmission examining a cluster of COVID-19 cases associated with a shopping mall in Wenzhou, China indicated indirect transmission of the causative agent, likely via contaminated objects, virus aerosolization in confined spaces, or spread from close contact with asymptomatic infected persons. Another research team collected information on individual case reports and domestic travel across China to estimate important epidemiological measures, such as the disease’s incubation period and R₀. Specifically, they found that in the early days of the outbreak, the doubling time was 2.3-3.3 days and the median R₀ could hit 5.7, numbers that support the criticality of surveillance, contact tracing, and social distancing to slow transmission. A third study confirmed asymptomatic and human-to-human transmission via close contacts in family and hospital settings, information useful for practice in clinical diagnosis and treatment. Relatedly, further research found evidence supporting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 while an infected patient was presymptomatic or asymptomatic. Transmission of the virus from presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases impacts the types of public health interventions needed to contain the virus. An analysis of coronavirus patients from Vietnam indicated that the virus was transmitted from a traveler from China. Additionally, an asymptomatic patient showed viral shedding, more evidence that transmission can occur in the absence of clinical signs and symptoms. An article examining transmission from a presymptomatic attendee at a meeting in Germany found evidence that the disease was further transmitted via handshaking and face-to-face contact. Read all these articles here.

Commentary – Public Policy in the Pandemic Age: How COVID-19 Is Reshaping Our Government, Economy, and Society

Stevie Kiesel, a Biodefense PhD Student, attended a GMU webinar featuring a discussion among a panel of experts regarding public health response strategies, economic impacts of lockdown, and potential longer-term implications of COVID-19. The panel included experts in economics, presidential leadership, emergency management, and disease transmission. Read the full commentary here.

Congrats to GMU Biodefense Graduates and Award Recipients!
While they won’t get to walk across the stage and celebrations are being done virtually, we are so proud of our new Schar School Biodefense graduate students who have completed their studies and are already out on the frontlines working to combat COVID-19. Our new PhD graduates are Ashley Hess, Margaret Midyette, Katherine Paris, and Saskia Popescu. New graduates of the MS program include Daniel Cooper, Edward Cope, Joseph DeFranco, Michael Krug, Alexandra Pugh, Georgia Ray, and Hwa Yun. We’re also excited to announce that Maliheh Bitaraf, Diana Ciricean, and John Kisko have just completed their Biodefense certificates. Congrats! During this graduation, three students are presented with Graduate Student Awards and we’re proud to announce that Michael Krug is the 2020 Outstanding Biodefense MS Student, Saskia Popescu is the Outstanding Biodefense PhD Student, and Yong-Bee Lim has received the Frances Harbour Award. Read more about our recipients here.

‘I Can’t Turn My Brain Off’: PTSD and Burnout Threaten Medical Workers
Though health care workers were already vulnerable to depression and suicide, the additional stress of COVID-19 further threatens their mental health as signs of stress- and trauma-related disorders rise. This New York Times piece by Jan Hoffman highlights how our health care heroes are hurting under the weight and losses from COVID-19. In tandem, a commentary by GMU’s own Madeline Roty describes the criticality of prioritizing the mental health of health care workers in and out of crises. The recent suicides of Dr. Lorna Breen and EMT John Mondello are heart-wrenching wakeup calls about the insufficient resources and support for the mental health of medical workers. Existing resources have experienced a surge in demand since the pandemic started as workers struggle with increased duties ands stress regarding the care of their patients, while being denied sufficient access to PPE and proper training for new policies and protocols. Additionally, workers suffer from the disconnect between themselves and their social networks – families, friends, and physical contact with both. The therapeutic power of a loving hug is no longer an option at the end of a grueling, and likely long, shift. The full article is available here.

The Coronavirus Chronicles
We recently introduced our new series, The Coronavirus Chronicles, which is a collection of stories, based on the personal and professional experiences of the faculty, students, and alumni of the Biodefense Graduate Program, about life during the pandemic. From lab safety to parenting and even healthcare work, The Coronavirus Chronicles have detailed the lives of so many of our students and alumni working in COVID-19 response. We hope these stories help the public better understand the challenges posed by COVID-19 and how current and former members of the Biodefense Graduate Program have responded to these challenges and contributed to the pandemic response at the local, national, and international levels. This week, we’re launching a new story by biodefense graduate student Madeline Roty, who discusses the psychology effects of virus outbreaks. As you read above, this is a very real issue and extends beyond healthcare workers. Roty notes that “Fear of infecting others and time in quarantine or isolation contribute to psychological distress. Some healthcare workers have been forced to quarantine due to exposure to the virus or isolate after becoming infected. Many others are choosing to adhere to a modified quarantine in which they go to work but separate themselves from family, even in the absence of a known exposure.” Read her analysis into mental health and outbreaks here. 

The Future Bioweapons Threat: Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Looking for a webinar to discuss lessons learned from COVID-19 and the implications for bioweapons threat analysis? The Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) is thrilled to present its first LIVE webinar on May 28 from 3:00-4:30pm EST, which will examine the future bioweapons threat from the perspective of the COVID-19 pandemic. Panelists include Max Brooks, author of World War Z and Devolution, Nonresident Fellow at The Modern War Institute and Atlantic Council, Honorable Andrew C. “Andy” Weber, Senior Fellow at Council on Strategic Risks, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs at the Pentagon, GMU Biodefense alum Dr. Saskia Popescu, Epidemiologist and Senior Infection Preventionist, HonorHealth, and Dr. Alexander Titus, Chief Strategy Officer, Advanced Regenerative Manufacturing Institute and Senior Fellow at Council on Strategic Risks. Register for event here.

Everyone Wins from Vaccine Cooperation
In a time of increasing finger-pointing, the best chance we have at a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is likely through international coordination and cooperation. Dr. Kendall Hoyt, friend of GMU Biodefense, worked with Susan Athey and Michael Kremer to discuss the critical need for vaccine cooperation on international levels. Vaccine R&D isn’t easy and frankly, incurs a lot of risk. “The best way to manage these risks is to collaborate. Multilateral investment in a diversified portfolio of vaccine candidates would help to scale up production capacity as soon as a vaccine’s safety and efficacy have been established. Provided that much remains unknown about the novel coronavirus, we estimate that an investment of about $145 billion (.17% of world GDP) would be ideal, but that a program just half that size would yield substantial benefits. Although the United States and China are pursuing individual investment strategies, both could still advance their own national interests through international collaboration, either by way of the ACT Accelerator or via pooled contracts negotiated directly between countries and firms.” As the authors emphasize, global coordination doesn’t just reduce risk through managing supply chain disruptions, but also ensures export controls don’t interfere and ultimately, the benefits can be more broadly distributed.

Planning for a COVID-19 Vaccination Program
A commentary published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), a group of medical doctors at Children’s National Hospital urge the public health community to initiate a proactive educational campaign to inoculate both the general public and health care workers against misinformation about the imminent COVID-19 vaccine. More specifically, this campaign should engage via traditional (television, radio, print ads) and social media platforms immediately to monitor, counter, and prevent the dissemination of false beliefs regarding the forthcoming COVID-19 vaccine.  The authors recommend four steps to promote widespread public acceptance of the vaccine: (1) rapid and equitable distribution of a vaccine immediately after confirmation of its efficacy and safety; (2) any plan for mass vaccination should address probable hurdles to vaccine acceptance using “linguistically and culturally competent messaging”; (3) public health leaders should design a robust COVID-19 vaccine educational campaign that incorporates social and traditional media, with foci on countering misinformation and leveraging the popularity of influencers; and (4) front line health care workers should be trained on how to convey strong recommendations for COVID-19 vaccine uptake. The article is available to read for free here.

Dr. Andrew Kilianski: Professor, Scientist, and Security Expert
Dr. Andrew Kilianski, an adjunct professor in the Schar School of Policy and Government’s Biodefense Graduate Program, is among the newly appointed experts leading the Department of Defense’s contribution to Operation Warp Speed, a public-private partnership to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics for use against COVID-19. Specifically, Dr. Kilianski was appointed the subject matter expert leading DOD’s support in the area of Security and Assistance for this new Manhattan Project-style initiative. His role will presumably relate to defending vaccine researchers and pharmaceutical firms against cyberespionage threats. US and British cybersecurity agencies have issued multiple warnings about attempts by countries such as China and Iran to hack universities and private firms in order to steal intellectual property related to research on COVID-19 medical countermeasures. According to Dr. Gregory Koblentz, Director of the Biodefense Graduate Program at the Schar School, “Strengthening cyberbiosecurity is a vital element of our national effort to develop new vaccines and therapeutics against COVID-19. Dr. Kilianski’s appointment is a perfect illustration of how the Biodefense program tries to bridge the gap between science and policy.” Dr. Kilianski has been teaching courses on viral threat agents and biosurveillance for the Biodefense program since 2016. When the COVID-19 pandemic forced George Mason, and universities around the country, to shift to online teaching, Dr. Kilianski was already in the middle of teaching his virology course online. The Biodefense Graduate Program rotates all of its courses between being offered online and in-person, enabling students anywhere in the world to complete the entire Master’s degree online. The flexibility offered by online courses is not only good for students, but also allowed Dr. Kilianski to continue teaching even while he faced increased demands at work for his expertise. When classes resume in the fall, Dr. Koblentz noted, “Dr. Kilianski will be able to bring unique insights back into the classroom. Not everyone gets a professor with that kind of experience.” Since 2019, Dr. Kilianski has served as the Chief Intelligence Officer (CIO) for Chemical, Biological, Nuclear, and Radiological (CBRN) Defense for the Department of Defense. His previous work at DOD encompassed weapons of mass destruction, infectious diseases, and emerging biotechnology. Prior to joining DOD, Dr. Kilianski was a National Academy of Sciences Fellow with the US Army at Edgewood Chemical Biological Center, where he conducted cutting-edge research on integrated biosurveillance and the identification and characterization of novel agents that threaten warfighters. Dr. Kilianski earned his PhD in Microbiology and Immunology from Loyola University Medical Center where he specialized in the study of coronaviruses. His scientific research has been published in an array of notable journals such as PLoS Pathogens, Journal of Virology, and Emerging Infectious Diseases. His research included the discovery of virus-host interactions necessary for coronavirus pathogenesis and research on vaccines and antiviral agents against the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronaviruses.

A Healthy Dose of Realism: Stopping COVID-19 Doesn’t Start with the WHO
Dr. Frank Smith III, the director of the Cyber and Innovation Policy Institute (CIPI) at the US Naval War College, encourages a renewed viewpoint on the COVID-19 response and how to make progress. Smith proposes that states, leaders, and organizations abandon their mud-slinging behaviors toward the World Health Organization (WHO) and, instead, focus on leveraging international partnerships and cooperation to combat COVID-19. According to Smith, the WHO is a relatively weak entity that bows to the will of powerful states, thereby echoing the balance of power in the world. Instead of throwing stones at the WHO, focus should shift to power nation-states that can act swiftly and significantly. He encourages concerted action between the United States and China, following the footsteps of the unprecedented collaboration between the US and Russia in the smallpox eradication campaign. The full article is available here.

STGlobal Consortium Seeking Graduate Students for STS/STP Conference
The STGlobal Consortium is now seeking graduate student volunteers to serve on the planning committee for our 2021 STS/STP conference, to be held in April 2021 in Washington, DC.  As you may know, the STGlobal Conference is a student-run and student-focused conference focused on the societal and policy aspects of science and technology, including such related concerns as sustainability, science communication, and science education.  Programming will include opportunities for graduate students to present and receive feedback upon research in a friendly and collaborative environment; workshops for development of research and professional skills; and opportunities to connect with students, professionals, and organizations working in the aforementioned areas. Service on the planning committee offers students a valuable opportunity to gain experience in the organization and facilitation of an academic conference, as well as to communicate and collaborate with other students in their fields from across the United States and the world.  If you know any graduate students who might be interested in serving this year, please pass on this message to them directly; and please feel free to disseminate this communication among your networks.  Students who wish to participate should email contact@stglobal.org for further information.

Welcome to your weekly report on all things global health security – have you been wondering if a gym or coffee shop is safer to visit when things re-open? Check out this review here – but don’t forget to wash your hands!

The Coronavirus Chronicles
Last week we introduced our new series,The Coronavirus Chronicles, which is a collection of stories, based on the personal and professional experiences of the faculty, students, and alumni of the Biodefense Graduate Program, about life during the pandemic. We hope these stories help the public better understand the challenges posed by COVID-19 and how current and former members of the Biodefense Graduate Program have responded to these challenges and contributed to the pandemic response at the local, national, and international levels. This week, we’re launching three more stories – doctoral student Janet Marroquin discusses conducting analyses of various chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear defense capabilities while also starting a PhD and parenting during the pandemic. One feature you’ll see this week is a focus on how labs are working to reopen in the midst of COVID-19. David Grimm noted this recently as “one of the biggest challenges labs face is how to keep their members physically distanced to limit any potential spread of SARS-CoV-2.” Check out our two lab-based stories in this week’s Coronavirus Chronicles for insight into how this unique, but critical work environment is trying to safely reopen. One of our graduate students delves into working in the laboratory setting and the challenges of biosafety and research, followed by Travis Swaggard who is a senior biologist and discusses what it’s like working with SARS-CoV-2 and testing different regions of the SARS-CoV-2 genome from synthetically derived sections of the virus. Read their full stories here in The Coronavirus Chronicles.

Schar School Event- Public Policy in the Pandemic Age: How COVID-19 is Reshaping our Government, Economy, and Society
Join the Schar School Faculty, Alumni, Schar Alumni Chapter, and Dean Mark Rozell for an engaging virtual panel on the future of public policy post COVID-19 – COVID-19: How the Pandemic is Reshaping our Government, Economy, and Society. This virtual event will be moderated by Biodefense Graduate Program director Dr. Gregory Koblentz, and will be held from 2-3:30pm EST on Wednesday, May 20, 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic is presenting unprecedented challenges to the United States and the rest of the world. Not since the “Spanish Flu” of 1918 have we experienced a pandemic of this scale and severity. Aside from the steep and growing human toll of the outbreak, virtually every aspect of our personal and professional lives are being affected. The sheer breadth of issues impacted by COVID-19 is overwhelming: public health, medicine, government, the economy, international trade, education, national security, politics, and technology, to name just a few. The effects of the pandemic are also magnified by existing cleavages within our society ranging from hyperpartisanship to racial disparities to socioeconomic inequalities. You can read more about our distinguished panel members and register for the event here.

Complications and Misinterpretations about COVID-19 Testing
The development and employment of rapid and reliable diagnostic tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection are a hot topic as we continue to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first several weeks of the pandemic, the US failed to launch an adequate testing infrastructure that would enable sufficient testing capacity with reliable and valid testing methods. Molecular diagnostic techniques, such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for COVID-19, are espoused for their sensitivity (true positive rate), specificity (true negative rate), and safety. Molecular diagnostics can be performed on inactivated samples and are capable of detecting microbial DNA and RNA that are heavily diluted. An additional advantage of the molecular tests is their ability to distinguish between strains of the same virus, bacteria, or fungus. Serologic techniques look for the antibodies that are produced by the immune system to fight off a microbe; these types of tests can also detect exposure after an infection has resolved. Serology helps identify cases that occurred with very mild or no symptoms. Within the discussions about the need for diagnostic testing for COVID-19, the focus has recently shifted from molecular to serologic tests. It is important to note that these tests do not guarantee whether an individual has developed immunity to a specific pathogen. As of 5 May, the FDA has issued Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) to 60 test kit manufacturers and commercial laboratories producing molecular and serological tests, but only a dozen of these are received approval for serological diagnostics. Most of these EUAs are for diagnostics to be conducted in laboratories certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvements Amendments of 1988 (CLIA) to perform high complexity tests; some are approved for use in laboratories certified to perform moderate complexity tests. A recent survey of New York City discovered that 1 in 5 residents carried antibodies for the novel coronavirus, which indicates that they were exposed to the virus. This result confirms the fear of many experts that the lack of testing has led to an underestimation of the number of infections; for NYC, the estimated was one-tenth of the true number of infections. The fact that 20% of the NYC population may carry the antibodies does not necessitate that all those individuals developed immunity to COVID-19. Dr. Saskia Popescu, a Biodefense PhD graduate, pointed out that epidemiology for COVID-19 is leaning heavily on these imperfect tests, a dangerous move given that many individuals remain susceptible to infection. Popescu’s concerns echoes the cautions raised by other scientists that the presence of antibodies does not signify immunity, and even those who were infected but asymptomatic may be at risk of a second infection. Additional improved tests are needed to better assess the significance of antibodies in previously infected patients.

GMU Institute for Sustainable Earth – Pandemic Webinars
The disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic reveal both fragilities and resiliencies in our global society. Mason’s Institute for a Sustainable Earth is hosting a webinar series to investigate some of these dimensions of the current health and economic crises through the lens of sustainability science. In moderated discussions with sustainability experts, these webinars will also explore how society could recover to a more resilient and sustainable state. Each week you can attend a new webinar regarding everything from preparedness and social resilience, ecological health, and social inequalities and the disparities of impact. Make sure you catch the Preparedness and Social Resilience event next week on Tuesday, May 12th from 2-3pm, which will include Dr. Gregory Koblentz, Associate Professor of Government and Politics and Director of the Biodefense Graduate Program.

The Conspiracy Continues: Theories Persist that COVID-19 Came from a Lab
Despite a throng of scientists and researchers debunking the theories that COVID-19 was born from a Chinese laboratory, the accusations and fears that the pandemic is the result of a laboratory release linger. On 3 May, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that there is “enormous evidence” that the novel coronavirus originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), a claim made despite the assessment of the intelligence community concluding that the virus is neither human-made nor genetically modified. The magnitude of this supposed evidence is repeatedly stated but the specifics of it are not. Actual scientific evidence supports the expectation that SARS-CoV-2 is naturally-occurring and originated from bats before spilling over into the human population. Dr. Greg Koblentz, Director of the GMU Biodefense Graduate Program, further squashed the idea that the novel coronavirus was created in a laboratory based on what is known about the biology of the virus. Koblentz points out that there is little evidence suggesting a cover-up by the Chinese government for a supposed lab breach. The WIV’s transparency regarding genomic sequencing of the virus supports the more reasonable conclusion that they are not the source. Some of these conspiracy theories use the WIV’s extensive research on deadly bat viruses as a foundation for their claims. Such research activities are not hidden and much is event detailed in over 40 published studies and academic papers. Though the source of the virus is quite unlikely to be a villainous origin, its origin may not be isolated to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan. Dr. Filippa Lentzos of King’s College London encourages carrying out a credible investigation to unveil a complete picture of the origin of the coronavirus pandemic. Further, though there is minimal hard evidence that the pandemic could have been the result of a laboratory failure, even a remote possibility brings into question the stringency and efficacy of safety in basic scientific research. A study published in March found that only 45% of the first 435 COVID-19 patients had connections to the seafood market in Wuhan, supporting the notion that the virus was present in other settings from the beginning. That said, this evidence does not indicate that the origin is the WIV or another laboratory that developed the novel coronavirus through manipulation. The pathogen is almost certainly a product of nature, but a comprehensive understanding of the factors and conditions that led to this pandemic will provide valuable insight for handling the next outbreak.

Arizona Puts Politics Above Pandemic Response
Earlier this week an infectious disease modeling team from Arizona State University, which had been providing models to the state health department and through publicly-available resources, was quietly release from their duties and told to return the data. Not long after, the rumblings of concern that this was a politically-motivated decision, became increasingly loud. The suspension of the COVID-19 modeling working group was just after President Trump visited Phoenix, AZ (where the group is based) and ultimately, their findings weren’t aligning with Gov. Ducey’s sudden push to re-open the state. In fact, the decision to disband the modeling team was made just hours after Gov. Ducey decided to rapidly accelerate the opening of the state. Originally set for May 15th, it was announced earlier this week that businesses like salons and restaurants would re-open starting on Friday, May 8th. The concerns for this as a politically motivated decision were quickly made by AZPHA in their post here, which noted that “The letter asking them to stop work didn’t provide any reason for the request except that it was at the direction of ADHS’ senior leadership. The only remaining predictive model that the state health department is now using has been developed by FEMA.  Neither that model nor the predictive modeling results from the FEMA model are publicly available. Last night’s action to disband the Arizona COVID-19 Modeling Working Group begs the question of whether the Modeling Working Group was discontinued because they had been producing results that were inconsistent with messaging and decisions being made by the executive branch.” Within a few days, it got national attention and gave rise to concern that the push to prematurely re-open states could be impeding public health efforts. “But experts said Arizona’s dismissal of academics, whose analysis seems at odds with the state’s approach, marked an alarming turn against data-informed decision-making.”

Bright, BARDA, and Whistleblowing
Ripples were sent this week as former director of BARDA, Rick Bright, filed a whistleblower complaint on Tuesday regarding his removal from office and reported pressure from Robert Kadlec, leader of ASPR, to “to buy drugs and medical products for the nation’s stockpile of emergency medical equipment from companies that were linked politically to the administration and that he resisted such efforts.” The 89-page complaint was a searing document that noted Bright’s removal due to his efforts to “prioritize science and safety over political expediency.” As biodefense expert Dr. Gregory Koblentz notes, “Rick Bright’s whisteblower complaint contains a litany of disturbing details about the failures of the Department of Health and Human Services and the White House to respond quickly and forcefully to the COVID-19 pandemic. The complaint shines a bright on the Trump Administration’s poor judgment, bureaucratic in-fighting, politically-driven decision-making, disregard for science, corruption, and incompetence.”

Summer Workshop Cancellation
We are so grateful for all the interest in the workshop over the years, but regretfully have decided to cancel the 2020 workshop due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the interest of public health, George Mason University has cancelled all on-campus events through mid-August. We hope you and your family stay healthy and safe. If you are working on the response to COVID-19, we would like to thank you for your hard work and dedication to global health security. We are confident that the 2021 workshop will offer critical insights into the causes and consequences of this pandemic and a renewed passion for biodefense efforts. We hope to see you at next summer’s workshop and thanks to all for their interest.

‘Understanding and Surviving a Pandemic’ A Week of Scholarly Webinars
From April 27-May 1, 2020, you can enjoy a daily virtual event with a range of experts on the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. Each day, a panel of experts from the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, guest practitioners, and elected officials will examine a different aspect of the coronavirus crisis, from politics to health care to intelligence. Mark J. Rozell, dean of the Schar School, will host the programs. The virtual sessions are open to the public and may be followed by a question and answer period, if time allows. See below for topics, times, and viewing information. Don’t miss the Tuesday event on infection control and surge capacity with Biodefense doctoral alum Saskia Popescu. You can read about the events and register for each webinar here.

Schar School Event- Public Policy in the Pandemic Age: How COVID-19 is Reshaping our Government, Economy, and Society
Join the Schar School Faculty, Alumni, Schar Alumni Chapter, and Dean Mark Rozell for an engaging virtual panel on the future of public policy post COVID-19 – COVID-19: How the Pandemic is Reshaping our Government, Economy, and Society. This virtual event will be held from 2-3:30pm EST on Wednesday, May 20, 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic is presenting unprecedented challenges to the United States and the rest of the world. Not since the “Spanish Flu” of 1918 have we experienced a pandemic of this scale and severity. Aside from the steep and growing human toll of the outbreak, virtually every aspect of our personal and professional lives are being affected. The sheer breadth of issues impacted by COVID-19 is overwhelming: public health, medicine, government, the economy, international trade, education, national security, politics, and technology, to name just a few. The effects of the pandemic are also magnified by existing cleavages within our society ranging from hyperpartisanship to racial disparities to socioeconomic inequalities. You can read more about our distinguished panel members and register for the event here.

Recent Developments in White Supremacist Terrorism
GMU Biodefense doctoral student Stevie Kiesel discusses a security threat that we might be overlooking right now.  Steve notes that while the national focus has correctly shifted to the threat from COVID-19, other national security threats have not gone away. On the contrary, domestic and international terrorist groups view the pandemic as a chance to sow chaos and strike at their vulnerable enemies. The Voice of Hind, a magazine supportive of the Islamic State and published in India, recently called on supporters to “use this opportunity to strike [nonbelievers] with a sword or a knife or even a rope…[and] fill the streets with their blood.” Closer to home, on March 24, Timothy Wilson accelerated his plan to deploy a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device to cause mass casualties. Recognizing an opportunity to use the pandemic as a force multiplier, Wilson was on his way to his target—a crowded Missouri hospital—when he was intercepted by the FBI. Wilson had been the subject of a domestic terrorism investigation for his “violent extremist” ideology that was “motivated by racial, religious, and anti-government animus.” Read more here.

Counting Calories in COVID-19
GMU Biodefense doctoral student Rachel-Paige Casey discusses COVID-19 implications for food shortages, American food culture, and what widespread stay-at-home orders mean for our diets. “To assuage any panic, the outlook for domestic food production – namely in cereals, meat, and dairy – remains sufficient despite reduced production. A recent announcement by Robert Johansson, USDA Chief Economist in Food and Nutrition, confirms that the United States possesses sufficient quantities of food to feed our population and maintain much of its exports. Anxiety averted and assuaged, patience is needed as our food value and supply chains adapt to abrupt changes in demand. Additionally, the agricultural and food processing sectors need time to adjust operations to increase safety measures (for its workers and customers) and to fulfill changes in consumer preferences.” Read more here.

OPCW Confirms Syrian Sarin Chemical Weapon
The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) published its First Report by the Investigation and Identification Team (IIT), which strongly linked the Syrian government to the March 2017 sarin and chlorine attacks on a rebel town. Specifically, in March 2017, three projectiles – two containing sarin and one containing chlorine – were dropped from aircraft of the Syrian Arab Air Force into Ltamenah in northern Syria. According to Dr. Gregory Koblentz, Dirrector of the Biodefense Graduate Program and member of the Scientists Working Group on Chemical and Biological Security, the IIT’s use of multiple methods provided “damning evidence” of that the sarin was developed by the Syrian government. Unfortunately, the IIT does not have the authority to issue sanctions against Syria as punishment. Kenneth D. Ward, US ambassador to the OPCW, assured that the use of chemical weapons will not be tolerated by the United States, which will seek to hold Syria accountable.

COVID-19 and International Security Podcast
Have you heard the latest Power Problems podcast episode? You can listen to Dr. Greg Koblentz of George Mason University as he joins Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall to talk about the international security implications of the coronavirus pandemic. This is an engaging and insightful podcast that discusses national security in the age of pandemics and how we govern in a crisis, let alone reconsidering biosecurity and a recalibration of our efforts during biological threats. As Koblentz reiterates, “This pandemic should be a wake-up call to the national security community that its time to rethink its priorities. Instead of obsessing about great power competition, we should be more focused on defeating our microscopic enemies. When great powers compete over global health, the only winners are the viruses.”

The “Best People” for Pandemic Response? Vaccine Expert Leaves BARDA While Labradoodle Breeder Leads HHS COVID-19 Efforts
From critical vacancies to questionable personnel choices, this week has been another shaky one for the White House. And no, we’re not referring to comments about injecting disinfectants into the body to prevent COVID-19… On Wednesday, a startling shakeup occurred- Dr. Rick Bright was removed from his position as director of BARDA. Not one to go quietly, Bright released a statement stating that leadership pressured him to look more into hydroxychloroquine despite concerns. “I believe this transfer was in response to my insistence that the government invest the billions of dollars allocated by Congress to address the Covid-19 pandemic into safe and scientifically vetted solutions, and not in drugs, vaccines and other technologies that lack scientific merit,” he said in his statement. “I am speaking out because to combat this deadly virus, science — not politics or cronyism — has to lead the way.” Unfortunately, this wasn’t the only shake-up in how the U.S. is responding to COVID-19. Despite President Trump stating that he only hires the best people, it turns out that the aide of HHS Secretary Alex Azar, was tapped to take over COVID-19 response for the agency despite his lack of experience in public health and a track record for…dog-breeding. “The aide, Brian Harrison, had joined the department after running a dog-breeding business for six years. Five sources say some officials in the White House derisively called him ‘the dog breeder.’ Azar’s optimistic public pronouncement and choice of an inexperienced manager are emblematic of his agency’s oft-troubled response to the crisis. His HHS is a behemoth department, overseeing almost every federal public health agency in the country, with a $1.3 trillion budget that exceeds the gross national product of most countries.” GMU Biodefense graduate program director Dr. Gregory Koblentz emphasized these key personnel vulnerabilities in this 2017 OpEd and the implications for biodefense.

The World vs. COVID-19: Potential Models for Stymying the Spread of COVID-19
Michael Krug, a soon-to be-graduate of the Biodefense MS program, was recently hired on by HHS’s Office of Global Affairs as a Global Health Officer for the Office of Pandemics & Emerging Threats. As a budding biodefense professional, the Pandora Report reached out to Krug for his thoughts on his upcoming career and how the GMU Biodefense Graduate Program helped him land his new role. “The Biodefense Program at GMU helped hone my policy knowledge on several topics significant to my work now, including global health policy, health security, and international norms. The program’s proximity to Washington, DC enabled me to find meaningful work experience, to go along with the robust policy-oriented curriculum. One of the reasons I joined the Office of Global Affairs (OGA) at HHS was to help support the core efforts and expertise that strengthen global health priorities. The OGA promotes coordination and partnership between all levels of governments, international and non-governmental organizations. Together these efforts highlight the importance of global health and raise awareness to the health risks around the world. In this interconnected world, I felt as though the OGA provided me the greatest opportunity to make a resounding impact on the global health field.” Krug recently published an article for GMU’s Center for Security Policy Studies about strategies and countermeasures for stymy the continued spread of COVDI-19, citing South Korea and Washington state as examples. Please read Krug’s latest article here.

Realigning the conventional routes of transmission: an improved model for occupational exposure assessment and infection prevention
GMU Biodefense doctoral alum Chris Brown is addressing the very real challenges of occupational exposure assessments, which couldn’t come at a better time as we learn about more healthcare-related COVID-19 cases. “Current recommendations for standard and transmission-based precautions in place for patients who are suspected or known to be infected or colonized with infectious agents are best suited to prevent the transfer of micro-organisms to other patients – that is, to prevent the acquisition of a healthcare-associated infection, rather than to protect the healthcare worker from self-contamination resulting in a potential occupationally acquired infection. This article reviews current recommended infection prevention and control practices and offers a framework for better protection and controls from an occupational health point of view. We offer a model with two exposure routes – contact and aerosol – resulting from work activities and environments, shifting the focus away from particular pathogenic micro-organisms’ typical methods for spreading to patients or to other non-workers in hospital and community settings.” Read more here.

ASPR’s Activities
The office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) is housed in the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and was established by the created under the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) in 2006. The ASPR manages the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) of medical supplies, personal protective equipment (PPE), medicines, and devices for life-saving care in an emergency situation. In the COVID-19 response, the SNS has distributed PPE (N95 respirators, surgical and face masks, face shields, gloves, and disposable gowns) in all 50 states to help subdue the transmission of COVID-19; it has also provided ventilators to areas with critical need. The SNS, in conjunction with its federal partners, is coordinating logistics operations to optimize all available resources to support the COVID-19 response. HHS launched the ASPR Technical Resources, Assistance Center, and Information Exchange (TRACIE) to “meet the information and technical assistance needs of regional ASPR staff, healthcare coalitions, healthcare entities, healthcare providers, emergency managers, public health practitioners, and others working in disaster medicine, healthcare system preparedness, and public health emergency preparedness.” TRACIE covers healthcare coalitions, CBRN, health care system partners and medical surge, the Emergency Preparedness Requirements for Medicare and Medicaid Participating Providers and Suppliers (CMS EP Rule), hurricanes, disaster behavioral health, mass violence, infectious diseases, drug shortages and scarce resources, and emergency medical services (EMS). TRACIE’s COVID-19 page highlights the resources developed and identified to aid ongoing response and recovery operations.

COVID-19 Testing: Possibilities, Challenges, and Ensuring Equity (NAS)
This week, the National Academies of Sciences and the American Public Health Association hosted a webinar about COVID-19 testing and its equity issues. The presenters provides an update on the state of testing for COVID-19, explained the types of data that will be provided by different tests under development, discussed how that data can inform plans to ease social distancing, and described the equity issues that must be considered access testing and how we can ensure equal access for all. The panel experts included moderator David Relman, MD, Professor of Microbiology and Immunology at Stanford University; Jill Taylor, PhD, Director of the Wadsworth Center for the New York State Public Health Department; Ashish Jha, MD, MPH, Director of the Harvard Global Health Institute; and Georges C. Benjamin, MD, Executive Director of the American Public Health Association. Notes and slides for this and related events are available here. The panel covered situational awareness of diagnostics and surveillance, FDA-approved and EUA-approved molecular and serology assays for testing, the accuracy and reliability of existing tests, ongoing studies for new diagnostics, and, of course, the inequities of the current testing strategy. Diagnostics, using any type of test, need to provide data and insight about active SARS-CoV-2 infections, stage of infection, symptom level (or asymptomatic), contagiousness, prognosis, clinical needs, and acquired immunity.  Surveillance systems need to provide data and insight about acquired immunity, susceptibility, geographic and temporal factors for infection, and the efficacy of intervention measures. The slow and meager early response efforts of the US were seen in the lack of testing infrastructure, an insufficiency that persists weeks later. The high positive rate (about 20-22%) of US diagnostic testing signals that testing coverage is inadequate as many other nations who have expanded their testing network see positive rates under 10%. There are two camps about the number of tests per day that are needed to achieve reasonable containment of the virus in the US: 500,000/day or 10-30 million/day. The 500,00 tests per day recommendation is probably the only attainable option. Beyond reaching that figure, testing needs to be economically accessible to all subpopulations that are currently struggling to get testing or care. At present, the coronavirus test is covered by the federal government; however, the cost of the appointment and the proceeding care are not, which is a major obstacle for Americans that lack sufficient insurance coverage or a nearby care facility. Dr. Benjamin pointed out that current public health messaging campaigns are focused on television and social media platforms that are not accessible to everyone, but neglects using the radio as a platform for PSAs and information. Additionally, some of the innovations are only applicable certain groups; drive-thru testing sites are a novel option but only for those who own a car. Dr. Benjamin also recommends using locally trusted messengers, such as faith leaders, for public health communication. The aforementioned health inequities are not new occurrences but are of critical concern as we try to combat COVID-19. If we can quickly and adequately enhance our testing strategy to scale up testing and expand accessibility to underrepresented subpopulations, we should finally be able to contain the virus enough to slowly and safely start resuming “normal” life.

Cascading Economic Impacts of the COVID-19 Outbreak in China
The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission released a Staff Research Report on the economic impacts of COVID-19 in China. China’s late response to the originally-localized outbreak in Wuhan province led the Chinese government to unforce lockdowns across the country, crippling economic activity. With respect to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Commission found that China suffered, and continue to grapple with, obstructed demand in energy and retail items, stalled production and exports, supply chain disruptions. The Chinese supply chain disruptions are impacting global supply chains, and the US is seeing the effects. These interruptions in economic activity are also the result of intentional freezes by Chinese policymakers in an attempt to curtail the spread of the virus while maintaining supply-side efforts to support businesses; this attempt is largely considered a failure. The ultimate result of China’s slow yet extreme response measures is a deceleration of international economic activity. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now forecasts a 3% global GDP contraction in 2020. The IMF estimate is somewhat optimistic as it relies on the assumptions that pandemic subsides and other support will be enacted in most countries during the second quarter of 2020 and economic activity will mostly resume in the latter half of this year. The full report is available here.

OHSS Webinar – Wildlife trade: the social, cultural, and political stakes
The One Health Social Sciences Initiative is hosting a webinar on April 30, 2020 from 11am-12:30pm EST, with two experts in zoonotic epidemics in an inter-disciplinary dialogue about the social, cultural, and political stakes of eliminating the wildlife trade and, in particular, the role of “wet markets”.  Dr. Laura Kahn and Dr. Christos Lynteris will be the speakers of this engaging event. As the potential breeding ground for the current worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, epidemiologists, public health officials, and wildlife conservationists have called for shutting down these markets. However, as a central means of sustenance for many communities around the world, the full impacts of closing the markets and necessary strategies to address them will be addressed. Register for this free event here.