This week’s image is this very cool infographic depicting the evolution of the zombie in film and video games.
H7N9 in Hong Kong
Hong Kong confirmed its first case of H7N9 yesterday, a 36-year old female who had previously travelled to mainland China and been in contact with poulty. The woman was admitted to Queen Mary’s Hospital last month, after falling ill. She remains in critical condition.
This is the second time the virus has popped up outside of mainland China, with a previous case in Taiwan early this year. Since February of this year, China has reported 137 cases of the avian flu, with 45 fatalities. However, it’s worth noting that while the virus does have pandemic potential, the majority of cases occurred last Spring, with less than ten cases total appearing over the summer and fall. Avian influenza viruses often behave similarly to seasonal flu viruses, with the majority of infections occurring in cooler months.
Prior to February, H7N9 had not infected humans. Labs in the US, UK, and Japan have all developed candidate vaccines.
(Image: James Jin/Flickr)
This Week in DC: Events 12.2.13 – 12.6.13
The highlights of the free and open-to-the-public international security, terrorism, and policy events this week.
Monday, December 2
How the Global Order and the Modern State Empower Organized Violence
George Mason University School of Public Policy
7:15PM
Terrorists, human traffickers, insurgents, drug dealers, cyber criminals, pirates and other forms of organized violence, all actively exploit the separation that western societies and the international community try to maintain between what is considered “crime” and “war.” This separation, which is designed to promote stability and preserve liberty, is reflected in the very architecture, organizational and political cultures, and legal parameters assigned to law enforcement, judicial systems, and the military across western societies and within international institutions. However, insurgents conduct kidnappings by day and launch military-style raids at night as part of a holistic strategy that crosses traditional law enforcement and military boundaries. Pirates operate with impunity knowing that they are unlikely to be overtly attacked by navies on the high seas nor tried in a proper court upon capture. And drug lords, from Latin America to Los Angeles, challenge – and in some cases have virtually defeated – local law enforcement using high-end military weapons and tactics.
Tuesday, December 3
Cyber Conflict on the Korean Peninsula
Korean Economic Institute
10:30AM – 12:00PM
As the most wired place in the world, South Korea’s vulnerability to cyber threats is an important issue, especially when there are tensions with its neighbor to the north. South Korean banks, government agencies, media outlets, and businesses were all victims of cyber attacks and it is believed that North Korea was behind them. Many speculate that North Korea has units dedicated to cyber warfare and espionage. As a legitimate threat and provocation, it is important to understand the dynamics around cyber conflict on the Korean peninsula. Join KEI on Tuesday, December 3 as Dr. Steven Kim, Associate Professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, Hawaii presents his report on the cyber warfare tactics and strategies used by North Korea and the defense mechanisms employed by South Korea to prevent and deter cyber attacks.
Webinar on Environmental Security and Public Health
Elliot School of International Affairs
1:15PM – 2:15PM
Join us on the web December 3 for the third installation of a five webinar series on international environmental security, co-produced by the Security & Sustainability Forum and the National Council on Science and the Environment and led by experts from the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Stimson Center. Each webinar panel will examine a hypothetical scenario that could be a game-changer for national security, international business interests, political science theory, and our global environment. The panel on December 3 will examine the issue of the major threats to public health due to climatic and environmental change through a hypothetical scenario in which a new mosquito-borne disease emerges out of Africa or Asia. Please register for this ONLINE WEBINAR with the Security and Sustainability Forum at: go.gwu.edu/publichealth
Wednesday, December 4
FBI Agents to discuss National Security Issues
National Press Club
10:00 AM
FBI agents will discuss how sequestration’s mandated budget cuts are affecting daily FBI operations and hampering criminal and national security investigations, as well as the risks associated with additional budget cuts and furloughs expected early next year, at a National Press Club Newsmakers news conference on Wednesday, December 4. Leaders of the FBI Agents Association (FBIAA) will also update the group’s recent report Voices from the Field: FBI Agent Accounts of the Real Consequences of Budget Cuts. The report contains field reports from FBI Special Agents illustrating the impact of budget cuts on their work. Speaking at the Newsmaker news conference will be FBIAA President Reynaldo Tariche and several active duty FBI agents from around the country. This NPC Newsmaker news conference is scheduled to take place on Wednesday, December 4 at 10 a.m. in the Club’s Zenger Room, on the 13th floor of the National Press Building at 529 14th St. NW, Washington DC, 20045.
Subcommittee Hearing: Transition at a Crossroads: Tunisia Three Years After the Revolution
U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs
2:00PM
Chairman Ros-Lehtinen on the hearing: “Three years since the Arab Spring began, Tunisia is at a crucial crossroads in its democratic transition. The country has been enmeshed in a political stalemate, and growing internal and external security challenges further complicate the tenuous political process. A democratic Tunisia would not only be a model for other countries in this volatile region, but a failure to make this transition would have grave consequences for the security interests of the U.S. and other nations in the region. This hearing will examine the status of the transition and what the U.S. and other organizations are doing to promote democracy and civil society at this critical juncture in Tunisia’s history.”
Thursday, December 5
The Future of America’s Strategic Nuclear Deterrent
Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments
10:00AM
Although nuclear weapons have played a critical role in American defense strategy for more than 60 years, there is a growing debate over the number and type of nuclear forces that the United States actually needs to maintain its security and protect its allies. Over the past several years, calls for Washington to substantially reduce the size of its nuclear arsenal have become more prevalent, while the combination of declining budgets and looming recapitalization costs have made nuclear weapons a popular target for potential funding cuts. Please join us as CSBA releases its latest report, The Future of America’s Strategic Nuclear Arsenal, by Senior Fellow Evan Montgomery. At the briefing, Dr. Montgomery will address a number of issues: Can the United States implement deep reductions in strategic nuclear weapons and still deter rivals, dissuade competitors, and discourage proliferation? Should it retain the strategic triad of bombers, land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines? Finally, must it replace its aging nuclear forces?
Strengthening the NIST Cyber Framework Against Advanced Threats
CSIS
12:00 – 2:00 PM
The CSIS Technology and Public Policy Program invites you to attend Strengthening the NIST Cyber Framework Against Advanced Threats NIST’s Cybersecurity Framework has tremendous value for risk management and defines best practices to block known threats. This discussion will share intelligence about campaigns by sophisticated cyber threat actors that have targeted critical infrastructure companies and discuss how well the Framework stacks up against advanced and new, unknown threats. Lunch will be served.
The Effects of Funding on Scientific Productivity: The Case of Academic Chemistry, 1990-2009
GMU Technology, Science, and Innovation Policy Research Seminars
12:00 – 1:30PM
This month’s seminar will feature Joshua Rosenbloom, of the National Science Foundation. This monthly seminar series, sponsored by George Mason University’s Center for Science and Technology Policy (School of Public Policy), explores new ideas and work-in-progress with the Washington-area research community. It’s open and free to all interested researchers with a special invitation extended to graduate students. The seminars are held at the George Mason University’s School of Public Policy (Founders Hall) on the Arlington campus, a short walk from the Orange Line’s Virginia Square/GMU Metro stop. CSTP will provide coffee and cookies — participants are welcome to bring a brown bag lunch.
Can the U.S. and China Build a New Model of Major Power Relations?
Wilson Center
3:30 – 5:00PM
On December 4 and 5, the Kissinger Institute and the China Institute for International Studies will hold a groundbreaking dialog on U.S.-China relations. In an effort to build relationships between, and gain the insights of, promising young leaders from both countries, the Kissinger Institute and the China Institute for International Studies are bringing together 16 fully bilingual experts from a variety of fields for an unconstrained and uninterpreted dialog on major issues in Sino-U.S. relations. The U.S.-China Young Leaders Dialogue is developing a platform for new voices and constituencies in U.S.-China relations, with an eye toward finding new approaches to joint challenges. At this public session of the off-the-record Dialogue, four conference participants will offer their views on prospects for a new model of major power relations.
(image courtesy of Dell)
Delving Deeper: Living in the Post-Antibiotic Era
By Yong-Bee Lim
The Post-Antibiotic Era Problem: What are the Issues, and How Can Adaptive Clinical Trials Potentially Help?
Nostalgia is a powerful thing. When people get nostalgic, they are cognitively living in the past; in this constructed past, the past seems rosy, and often conceived of as more positive than the present. That said, even with rose-tinted glasses, it is hard to argue that life (if defined as survivability) was better before the introduction of antibiotics. For example, mortality rates from pneumococcal pneumonia were 30-35% in the pre-antibiotic era, with the therapy often being quarantining patients.[1] Antibiotics have allowed for both the morbidity and mortality rates of pneumococcal pneumonia to drop to nearly zero in developed countries.[2] Furthermore, antibiotics allow procedures that would have been impossible in a pre-antibiotic era; organ transplants, invasive procedures, and intensive care units would not be possible without effective antibiotics.
A recent piece of news to hit the public health radar involves a man in New Zealand named Henry Pool. Pool, while teaching English in Vietnam, was operated on following a brain hemorrhage. When flown following the operation to a Wellington hospital, it was discovered that he carried a bacteria strain identified as KPC-Oxa 48: a strain of bacteria that is resistant to every antibiotic currently available to man. To contain the possibility of the strain of bacteria getting out, Pool was forcibly quarantined for 6 months until he passed away. [3]
This recent death in New Zealand highlights a threat that looms ever closer in the public health horizon: the post-antibiotic era. Due to a number of factors, including over-prescription of antibiotics to patients and over-use of antibiotics in farming and animal cultivation, bacteria have undergone evolutionary pressures to resist and overcome the mechanisms of our current arsenal antibiotics; several adaptations include the production of enzymes to modify antibiotics, cell wall changes that prevent the ingress of antibiotics inside the bacterium, and the creation of pumps to transfer antibiotics outside of the cell before the antibiotic’s effects are actualized. Furthermore, evidence points to the fact that multiply-resistant bacteria are not staying confined to hospitals as they traditionally have; certain bacteria such as Streptococcus pneumonia and Staphylococcus aureus with partial/complete resistance to penicillin have been detected in community populations.[4]
The concept of antibiotic resistance is not a foreign one to scientists and individuals in the public health sector. Staphylococcus aureus was actually noted to have started developing antibiotic resistance to penicillin as early as the 1940s.[5] Despite this knowledge that antibiotic resistance could, and would, develop over time, very little is available in regards to innovative new antibiotics to counter the rising threat of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. There has been “no major classes of antibiotics introduced” between the years of 1962 and 2000;[6] furthermore, while representatives of novel antibacterial classes (linezolid: 2000, daptomycin: 2003, retapamulin: 2007) have been registered, the chemical classes from whence these representatives originate were patented or reported historically (oxazolidnones: 1978, acid lipopetides: 1987, pleuromutilins: 1952).[7]
If the threat is realized, then, why is there such paucity in the development and production of novel and effective antibacterial therapies? Part of the equation has to do with the society we live in; money is important to companies. Over the past several decades, a number of large pharmaceutical companies have drastically cut funding and maintaining the internal capacity for R&D of antibacterial therapies. It is often argued that this decline is partially explained by the fact that pharmaceutical companies seek to shift R&D resources from antibacterial drug discovery programs to other, more profitable therapy areas such as musculoskeletal and central nervous system (CNS) drugs.[8],[9] The net effect of various economic barriers involved in the development of an antibiotic (if successful) is a net loss of $50 million dollars compared to a $1 billion gain for a new musculoskeletal drug at the time of discovery.[10] In addition, mergers and take-overs of pharmaceutical companies often result in a restructuring of priorities and personnel; these restructures have often included the loss of research groups with expertise in antibiotic drug discovery.[11]
So if part of the issue is economics, what can be done to better galvanize and incentivize pharmaceutical companies to come back and do R&D on antibacterial drugs? One area where companies often hemorrhage money is in the clinical trials necessary to prove both the safety and efficacy of a product. Oftentimes, the bulk of R&D funds are spent on clinical trials. Clinical trials (depending on the size of the sample needed to test the product, the cost of developing the product itself, and other factors) can run in the ballpark of $100 million dollars per trial; with a minimum of 3 phases of clinical trials (with a high probability of repeating at least one phase of a trial), it is easy to see a successful product would cost a minimum of $400 million dollars in clinical trials alone.[12]
Under the current model of clinical trials, trials are clearly demarcated between phases (Clinical Phase 1, Clinical Phase 2, and Clinical Phase 3) that must be done in a sequential fashion. Furthermore, these trials are rigid in the fact that parameters may not be changed during the course of a trial; all participants must be kept throughout the trial, dosages may not be altered, and trials (except under certain circumstances) must be completed until the end. Among a number of situations, this lock-step approach inflates costs when observations might indicate:
– A certain subset is not responding to a dose (perhaps the dose is too low)
– The entire sample is not responding to the product (at any dose)
Using innovative, high-level Bayesian biostatistics, a new avenue of clinical research design is being explored that may help alleviate some of the costs of clinical trials. Adaptive clinical trials are specifically designed studies that are meant to “adapt” as a clinical trial proceeds; these adaptations occur through an analysis of the accumulated results in a trial.[13] As opposed to the lock-step and rigid clinical trial structure that is currently used, adaptive clinical trials allow modifications to be introduced during the trial phase. These modifications could include, but are not limited to:
– Sample size re-estimation: If the number of people for a trial is too small or too large, this can be adapted during the trial.
– Early stopping of clinical trials: In the event that there is evidence that the product isn’t performing the way it is supposed to (lack of efficacy), trials can be shut down to save funds and resources.
– Dropping suboptimal groups: In the event that there is evidence that the product isn’t effective in a subgroup of the trial sample (perhaps a group with a low dose is not presenting results), then the group could be dropped to save funds and resources.
– Overlapping trials: Adaptive trials could overlap phases (the tail end of phase 1, for example, could overlap the beginning of phase 2), resulting in faster clinical trial completion and, hopefully, swifter licensure.
It should be noted that this type of approach is very new, and is only just garnering use in various areas that require clinical trials. For example, it has not been used, as of this post, for the development of Medical Countermeasures (MCMs). However, if it can be successfully executed, it holds possibilities in significantly cutting down both the temporal constraints, as well as the financial burdens, of attaining the novel and effective antibiotics that are necessary to help curb the growing antibiotic-resistant bacteria threat.
Perhaps the phraseology “post-antibiotic era” is too strong; it seems to evoke a sense of fear, and fails to address the idea that future innovations exist in the pipeline to potentially deal with issues of current levels of antibiotic resistance. However, what can be said is that we are starting to run out of options in our bag of tricks, and it will take more than a wave of a wand and an “abracadabra” to resolve this threat to the status quo: a public health era in which antibiotics work against bacteria to increase survivability. While there are multi-faceted issues contributing to this issue, the ability to help make antibacterial R&D more financially viable for pharmaceutical companies (through the use of innovations such as adaptive clinical trials) could help in dealing with this public health concern.
______________________________
Yong-Bee Lim is a PhD student in Biodefense at George Mason University. He holds a B.S. in Psychology and an M.S. in Biodefense from George Mason University as well. Contact him at ylim3@masonlive.gmu.edu or on Twitter @yblim3.
[1] Shai Ashkenazi. (2012). “Beginning and possibly the end of the antibiotic era,” Journal of Pediatrics and Child Health, 49 (3): pp. 179 – 182.
[2] RP Wenzel and MB Edmond. (2000). “Managing antibiotic resistance,” New England Journal of Medicine, 343: pp. 1961 – 1963
[3] “Kiwi dies with bug no drug could beat,” New Zealand Herald, accessed 11/23/2013: http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11159413
[4] LF Chen, T Chopra, and KS Kaye. (2009). “Pathogens resistant to antimicrobial agents,” Infectious Disease Clinics of North America, 23: pp. 817 – 845
[5] “Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA),” National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, accessed 11/26/2013, http://www.niaid.nih.gov/topics/antimicrobialresistance/examples/mrsa/pages/history.aspx
[6] MA Fischbach and CT Walsh. (2009). “Antibiotics for emerging pathogens,” Science, 325: pp. 1089 – 1093
[7] Lynn L. Silver. (2011). “Challenges of antibacterial discovery,” Clinical Microbiology Reviews, 24 (1): pp.71 – 109
[8] S. Projan. (2003). “Why is big pharma getting out of antibacterial drug discovery?” Current Opinion in Microbiology, 6 (5): pp. 427 – 430
[9] R Finch and P Hunger. (2006). “Antibiotic resistance – action to promote new technologies,” Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, 58 (Suppl): pp. 3 – 22
[10] Priya Sharma and Adrian Towse. (2011). “New drugs to tackle antimicrobial resistance: Analysis of EU policy options.”
[11] I. Chopra. (2008). “Treatment of health-care-associated infections caused by Gram-negative bacteria: a consensus statement,” Lancet Infectious Diseases, 8: pp. 133 – 139
[12] “How the FDA Stifles New Cures, Part I: The Rising Cost of Clinical Trials,” Forbes, accessed 11/26/2013, http://www.forbes.com/sites/aroy/2012/04/24/how-the-fda-stifles-new-cures-part-i-the-rising-cost-of-clinical-trials/
[13] Donald A. Berry. (2010). “Adapative clinical trials: The promise and the caution,” American Society of Clinical Oncology, 29 (6): pp. 606 – 609
The Pandora Report 11.29.13
Highlights include a new Q-fever vaccine, MERS in Qatari camels, revised 2009 H1N1 deaths, black silicon the bacteria slayer, and the new, FDA-approved, H5N1 vaccine. Happy Friday!
Eyeing Terrorist Potential, Pentagon Seeks Vaccine Against Cold War-Era Bioweapon
The Pentagon is pushing forward with plans to develop a vaccine against Q-fever, the disease caused by the bacterial agent Coxiella burnetii. While the majority of Q-fever cases are asymptomatic, C.burnetti is a spore former, and is therefore both hardy and stable. However, as the primary reservoirs of the disease are sheep, goats and cattle, the disease tends to be confined within slaughterhouse workers. The acute form of the disease has a fatality rate of less than one percent, while the chronic form ranges from five to 25%.
National Journal – “The United States investigated the agent’s warfare potential and the Soviet Union fully weaponized it decades ago, long before both countries formally denounced biological arms in the 1970s. The disease also occurs in nature and has affected hundreds of U.S. troops deployed overseas. It can produce fever, pneumonia, and numerous other symptoms associated with a variety of pathogens. Certain antibiotics are considered effective against the bacteria, but no vaccine is presently sold in the United States, according to the Federation of American Scientists. An existing vaccination available abroad reportedly can cause side effects such as abscesses and swollen joints.”
MERS virus found in camels in Qatar, linked to human spread
The Middle Eastern Respiratory virus has been detected in three Qatari camels, according to an unpublished study. While the press release does not detail whether live virus or antibodies to the virus were detected, there have been two confirmed cases of human infection related to the barn housing the infected camels. Although camels and bats are the leading candidates for potential reservoirs of the virus, there still exists too little conclusive evidence supporting either.
Reuters – “British researchers who conducted some of the very first genetic analyses on MERS last September said the virus, which is from the same family as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, was also related to a virus found in bats…Ab Osterhaus, a professor of virology at the Erasmus Medical Centre in The Netherlands that worked on the camel study, told Reuters the results were confirmed by a range of tests including sequencing and antibody testing. Dutch scientists said in August they had found strong evidence that the MERS virus is widespread among one-humped dromedary camels in the Middle East – suggesting people who become infected may be catching it from camels used for meat, milk, transport and racing.”
W.H.O. Estimate of Swine Flu Deaths in 2009 Rises Sharply
The WHO has significantly revised its fatality estimates for the 2009 outbreak of H1N1, which are estimated be ten times too low. It’s original numbers were just over 18,000 – according to a study published this week, the number of fatalities from the virus alone was actually closer to 203,000. When fatalities resulting from secondary conditions because of the virus are counted, the number approaches 400,000. There are a couple of important reasons for revising fatality counts, the first of which is it remedies accusations of sensationalizing the potential threat to sell vaccines.
New York Times – “The estimated death toll closely matches that of a study published in June 2012 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That study, based on early data, estimated that 201,000 people died of flu and respiratory causes and another 83,000 died of related cardiac problems. Both counts were many more than the 18,449 laboratory-confirmed cases that the W.H.O. stood by as its official count in 2009 because agency officials were reluctant to guess at fatality rates. Some politicians, particularly in Europe, used the low official W.H.O. death rate to argue that fear of the pandemic had been overblown. They accused vaccine companies of fanning the public’s fears to sell more of their product.”
Bactericidal activity of black silicon
From dragonfly’s wings to black silicon? In a recent study originating from Australia, scientists discovered that dragonfly wings were absolute shredders of bacteria. The structure of the wings destroys bacterial cell walls of both gram positive and gram negative bacteria upon contact. Now, shown that black silicon has similar bactericidal properties as well. While black silicon is not readily mass produced, there are several substances with similar nano features which can be. Our first thoughts here are hospitals and doorknobs.
Nature – “Both surfaces are highly bactericidal against all tested Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria, and endospores, and exhibit estimated average killing rates of up to ~450,000 cells min−1 cm−2. This represents the first reported physical bactericidal activity of black silicon or indeed for any hydrophilic surface. This biomimetic analogue represents an excellent prospect for the development of a new generation of mechano-responsive, antibacterial nanomaterials.”
FDA approves H5N1 bird flu vaccine
The FDA has approved the first adjuvanted H5N1 vaccine, designed primarily for those who have frequent interactions with poultry. As the vaccine is adjuvanted, less antigen is required to stimulate an immune response. The vaccine, which is administered in two doses three weeks apart, is designed to support existing vaccine supplies in the national stockpile.
Disaster News – “The vaccine, manufactured by GlaxoSmithKline, was developed in partnership with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, which is under the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.’This vaccine could be used in the event that the H5N1 avian influenza develops the capability to spread efficiently from human to human, resulting in the rapid spread of disease across the glove.’ Dr. Karen Midthun, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said in the news release. Among people who have become infected with H5N1, mortality is about 60%, according to WHO. Health officials have determined the H5N1 strain of influenza has ‘pandemic potential’ because it continues to affect wild birds and poultry populations, and most humans have no immunity to it.”
(image: Bahman Farzad/Flickr)
Image of the week: Salmonella!
In honor of Thanksgiving and our slightly perverse senses of humor, this week’s image is of everyone’e least favorite holiday bacteria – Salmonella! Pictured below is Salmonella typhimurium, the causative agent behind your run of the mill gastroenteritis. In order to avoid encountering this particularly unfortunate pathogen, we recommend you check out the CDC’s guidelines for a pathogen-free Thanksgiving. Which, incidentally, is what we wish you all!
Pictured in this lovely SEM, we have Salmonella typhimurium in red, invading human cells.
(image credit: Rocky Mountain Laboratories, NIAID, NIH)
WHO: MERS update
The World Health Organization released an update on MERS cases today. According to this most recent report, a further three cases of MERS have been detected in Saudi Arabia in the last week. Of the three patients, aged 73, 65, and 37 respectively, two had underlying medical conditions, and two have subsequently died, each within two weeks of becoming symptomatic. None of the three cases had prior, documented exposure to animals.
These most recent cases bring the global count up to 160 laboratory-confirmed cases, with 68 deaths.
For the full update, visit the WHO website here.
This Week in DC: Events 11.25.13 – 12.2.13
A very abridged events round-up due to the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday, which we hope you all enjoy!
Tuesday, November 26
Nuclear Talks with Iran: Potential Pitfalls and Prospects for Success
Heritage Foundation
12:00PM
The rise to power of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has boosted expectations that the decade-long standoff over Iran’s nuclear weapons program soon will be resolved through a diplomatic agreement. How realistic are these expectations? What is the meaning of the deadlocked talks at Geneva? What negotiating pitfalls must be avoided to construct the framework of an acceptable agreement? What is the role of international sanctions in pressuring Iran and under what circumstances should Washington consider easing sanctions? Join us as the speakers address these and other questions.
Modulation of RNA structure and function using protein, ligands, and RNA
Georgetown University
12:00PM
Speaker: Nathan Baird, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Ferre-D’Amare Lab National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute.
Foreign Policy Challenges in Obama’s Second Term
Center for a New American Security
12:15 – 1:45PM
On Tuesday, November 26, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), the New America Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute will host an in-depth discussion on the foreign policy challenges faced by the Obama administration in its second term. With a politically turbulent Middle East, a financially teetering EU, and an increasingly technologically competitive Asia-Pacific region, Obama and his administration will face critical foreign policy decisions in the second half of his final term. Featured speakers: Ambassador Dennis Ross, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Robert Kaplan.
Foreign Policy Series: New Hope for Nuclear Negotiations with Iran, or Further Disappointment?
World Affairs Council
6:30 – 8:30PM
For the past month representatives from Iran and six world powers have been attempting to restart negotiations for an agreement related to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. While a deal has seemed imminent, with Secretary of State John Kerry traveling to Geneva during his recent trip to the Middle East, and all sides noting progress, lingering doubts exist. Will an agreement be struck, and if so, how likely are the parties involved to adhere to it?
Monday, December 2
Going the Whole Nine Yards: What Is Needed for an Africa Free of AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria
Wilson Center
10:00 – 11:00AM
In conjunction with the Replenishment Conference for the Global Fund, the Africa Program is co-hosting the conference, “Going the Whole Nine Yards: What Is Needed for an Africa Free of AIDS, TB, and Malaria,” which will take place in the Wilson Center’s 6th floor Flom Auditorium. The effectiveness and benefits that have accrued to Africa since the fund was established and the continuing need to have a fully operational Global Fund will be discussed. At this tipping point in the fight against HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, the Wilson Center’s Africa Program and Friends Africa believe that amplifying the voices of leading advocates in the fight for an African continent free of HIV/AIDS, TB and Malaria is crucial to garner support towards meeting the replenishment target of 15 billion USD.
Dancing with the devil: Lessons from negotiating with rogues and terrorists
American Enterprise Institute
5:30 – 7:00PM
Whether wielding nuclear or chemical weapons, sponsoring truck bombs, or taking hostages, rogue regimes and terrorist groups continue to threaten the United States and its allies. How should America address the rogue threat? Highlighting research from his new book, “Dancing with the Devil” (Encounter Books, February 2014), Michael Rubin will describe not only lessons Americans have learned from decades of engaging Iran, North Korea, the Palestine Liberation Organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Taliban, but also what rogue regimes and terrorists have concluded about dialogue with Americans.
(image courtesy of Dell)
The Pandora Report 11.22.13
Highlights this week include dengue in New York, detecting ricin, a suspected al Qaeda biological weapons expert, the evolution of flu, and polio and the Taliban. Happy Friday, and have a bacteria-free Thanksgiving!
‘Locally-Acquired’ Dengue Fever Case Reported In New York
For the first time, a locally-acquired case of dengue fever has popped up in the state of New York. The infected individual had not left the region at any point during the incubation period. This suggests that the probable route of infection was a mosquito which had taken a blood meal from an infected person before biting the New York patient. The patient has made a full recovery. However, this case highlights the truly global nature of infectious disease today. Dengue is considered a “neglected disease” by the WHO, meaning its research on its treatment and cure receive comparatively less funding. This is especially unfortunate as the virus, which is considered “pandemic-prone” causes an estimated 100 million infections every year in 100 different countries. It’s easy to dismiss dengue as a disease which affects other people in far-flung parts of the world, but this simply isn’t the case anymore. The prevalence of international travel means relative geographical isolation is no longer the protective boundary it once was.
Global Dispatch – “‘Given the recent introduction of Aedes albopictus into New York State and the high level of travel in New York to areas of the world endemic for dengue, it is not surprising that a locally acquired case of dengue has been found in the state,’ said State Health Commissioner, Nirav R. Shah, M.D., M.P.H. ‘This finding emphasizes the need for physicians to be aware of signs and symptoms of diseases common in tropical countries, but may occasionally present themselves in New York.'”
Army Scientists Improve Methods to Detect Ricin
The CDC has sponsored research on decontaminating ricin. While the utility of spending large amounts of money on vaccine development against certain pathogens can sometimes be questionable, decon is an area of real importance that is under-researched. A letter containing ricin may not kill a lot of people, but its particles can linger for a very long time at each of the mail facilities it traveled through.
Military News – “The paper, which is entitled, ‘Surface Sampling of a Dry Aerosol Deposited Ricin,’ examines swab materials commonly used to sample biological threat agents from surfaces. The paper documents his studies, which demonstrates the need for accurate dissemination techniques to effectively evaluate sampling technologies in an environment mimicking the ‘real-world’ environment where the toxin may be present.”
Israel Holding Suspected al-Qaida Bio Weapons Expert
Israel is currently in a bit of a bind over it’s holding of a suspected biological weapons expert. According to court documents released this week, Samer Hilmi Abdullatif al-Barq was trained as a microbiologist in Pakistan, had military training in Afghanistan, and eventually was recruited by Ayman al-Zawahiri into the al Qaeda weapons program. Israeli courts have yet to try al-Burq, due to lack of sufficient evidence, but his actions in the area, including attempted recruitment of others into al Qaeda, render him too dangerous to release. Moreover, attempts to release him into the custody of neighboring states have been politely declined. It’s clearly a complicated case.
New York Times – “In a document presented to the court, the military prosecutors described Mr. Barq as an operative in the global Qaeda organization with ‘a rich background in the field of nonconventional weapons, with an emphasis on the biological field,’ having studied microbiology in Pakistan. The prosecutors argued that Mr. Barq’s release at this time to the West Bank, where he is a resident, would constitute ‘a point of no return in the development of a significant global jihadist infrastructure in the area.'”
Scientists zero in on flu virus defenses
A recent study published in the journal Science details novel research on the hemagglutinin protein (HA) of the H3N2 flu strain. The work examined mutations in the protein between 1968 and 2003 which prompted structural changes. In doing so, researchers were able to pinpoint changes in seven key amino acids that prompted evolutionary change in the virus. Better understanding the virus’ points and methods of evolution could help in the creation of more efficacious vaccines.
ABC Australia – “The researchers confirmed their findings by engineering changes to these seven amino acids and testing the antibody response to the new virus in ferrets. Importantly, the amino acids singled out by Barr and colleagues are close to the site on the HA protein that binds to host cells. This limits the number of amino acid substitutions that are possible as many changes will alter the protein’s structure, interfering with the virus binding process. ‘The virus can evolve in a number of different directions,” says Barr. “If we can narrow that down to a small number of directions then we’ve got a better chance of trying to work out which particular virus might be the one which is going to turn up in a year’s time.'”
Wired has an excellent long-form piece on polio vaccinations and the Taliban. The six-part article is interactive, and includes audio interviews, photo galleries, and infographics on why eradicating polio is so important and so challenging. Obviously, we highly recommend it!
Excerpts – “The virus typically infects only the mucosal tissues of the gastrointestinal system for a few weeks, where the immune system clears it before any harm is done. After that, the infected person would be immune to future infections from the same strain. However, in less than 1 percent of infections, the virus attacks the central nervous system and causes paralysis. Typically this affects just the legs. But in 5 to 10 percent of paralytic cases (that is, 0.05 percent of total infections), polio paralyzes the breathing muscles, meaning that without artificial respiration the patient will suffocate. All this explains why polio is so difficult to annihilate. For every one person who actually gets sick, nearly 200 are carrying the virus and infecting others…
“[T]he math of cost-benefit analyses runs aground when it comes to eradication campaigns, because the benefits, in theory, are infinite. That is: No one will ever die from—or spend a dime on vaccinating against—smallpox for the remainder of human history, barring a disaster involving one of the few lingering military stockpiles. According to a 2010 study, polio eradication would generate $40 billion to $50 billion in net benefits by 2035.”
(image: Sgt. Mike R. Smith, National Guard Bureau)
Reminder: November Biodefense Policy Seminar Tonight!
Just a reminder that our Biodefense Policy Seminar is tonight! Dr. Vogel will discuss bioweapons threats and nonproliferation. There will be free pizza and soda – join us!
November Seminar Title: Project BACHUS: Forecasting Bioweapons Threats with Experiment and Demonstration
Speaker: Kathleen Vogel
Date: Thursday, November 21, 2013, 7:20PM
Location: Meese Conference Room, Mason Hall, GMU Fairfax Campus
Dr. Vogel will describe a 1990s bioweapons threat assessment that involved setting up a mock bioweapons production facility as an “experiment”. The talk will discuss the difference between a scientific experiment and scientific demonstration and why it is important to interrogate what things are labeled as “experiments” and the implications that has for bioweapons assessments. Kathleen Vogel is an associate professor at Cornell, with a joint appointment in the Department of Science and Technology Studies and the Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies. Vogel holds a Ph.D. in biological chemistry from Princeton University. Prior to joining the Cornell faculty, Vogel was appointed as a William C. Foster Fellow in the U.S. Department of State’s Office of Proliferation Threat Reduction in the Bureau of Nonproliferation. Vogel has also spent time as a visiting scholar at the Cooperative Monitoring Center, Sandia National Laboratories and the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies. Her research focuses on studying the social and technical dimensions of bioweapons threats and the production of knowledge in intelligence assessments on WMD issues.
The Pandora Report 