Pandora Report 8.5.2016

by spopescu, posted in Pandora Report

August is here and so are the Zika cases…it does seems rather ominous that the Rio Olympics are starting a week after the confirmation of locally-acquired U.S. cases of Zika virus. Despite the outbreak and the concerns over water safety, the games must go on?

Syria Chemical Weapons Attack
Two chemical attacks were reported earlier this week in northern Syria. The first attack occurred in the city of Saraqeb, where chlorine gas-filled cylinders were dropped in a residential area. Russia has already begun denying any role in the attack and while officials haven’t formally called the Saraqeb incident a “chemical attack”, the evidence is mounting. “Evidence points to the Assad regime because the attack came from the sky and the opposition doesn’t have any aircraft, the source added. In the second alleged incident, the Syrian government claimed that ‘terrorist groups’ carried out a gas attack that killed five people in the old town of the besieged city of Aleppo on Tuesday afternoon, according to the state-run news agency SANA.” The second attack caused the death of five individuals and is considered a counteroffensive from Syrian regime forces and Russian allies. A physician tending to victims injured in Saraqeb noted that their symptoms are consistent with those of chlorine poisoning. On Wednesday, the Russian military informed the U.S. that “rebel forces were responsible” for the attacks.

Russia’s Frozen Anthrax Problem
Over ninety people are currently under healthcare observation and surveillance in the Yamalo-Nenets region of Siberia, related to an outbreak of anthrax. Eight cases have been confirmed and a young boy died on Monday from the outbreak that is believed to be associated with an infected reindeer carcass. While anthrax is a  naturally occurring bacteria in the soil and can be endemic in certain regions, the heatwave in Siberia is believed to have caused a decades-old reindeer carcass to become exposed. As a result of the exposure, thousands of reindeer have also been infected and officials are investigating the release of the anthrax spores into the environment from the carcass that was found in the 75-year-old permafrost. Siberia’s Governor, Dmitry Kobylkin, has declared a state of emergency and specialists from the Russian Chemical, Radioactive, and Biological Protection Corps have been called into assist with outbreak control and disposal of infected animals. A mass veterinary vaccination program is also underway to protect animals in northern Russia.

Spillover Special & Human Economic Activity
Wednesday night saw the premiere of the PBS documentary, Spillover, which focused on the impact and rise of zoonotic diseases. Given the recent Ebola outbreak and news of locally-acquired Zika virus cases, this documentary comes at an precarious time. Aside from a few dramatic moments, the documentary was both informative and visually captivating. It was refreshing to see the One Health approach to outbreaks within a documentary. The filmmakers appeared to have taken great care to present the complexity of the spillover process and the importance of global surveillance and the shock humans have on the environment. Between the documentary and Sonia Shah’s new article, the impact of human activity on microbes is becoming a much more prevalent and unavoidable topic. Shah points to an increasingly globalized economy and the glaring reality that sick people do in fact get on airplanes and spread their germs, These are the obvious points in the transmission chain though and she notes that we tend to forget the role of foreclosed homes, imported tires, and decorative bamboo as factors in disease transmission. “Today, abandoned properties and deteriorating infrastructure, brought on by housing crises and climate change, similarly threaten us with epidemics of mosquito-borne pathogens such as Zika.” Shah also points to the need to assess the public health implications of our “built environment the way we assess the environmental impact- before construction begins.” While we consider our carbon footprint, are we considering our epidemic one too?

UK’s HIV Gamechange with PrEP
A recent high court ruling that NHS England can pay for PrEP (pre-exposure prophylaxis) is being marked as a victory for HIV/AIDS campaigners in the UK. PrEP is a medication that can be taken daily to help people, who are at a very high risk of contracting HIV, lower their chances of infection. According to the CDC, “A combination of two HIV medicines (tenofovir and emtricitabine), sold under the name Truvada, is approved for daily use as PrEP to help prevent an HIV-negative person from getting HIV from a sexual or injection-drug-using partner who’s positive. Studies have shown that PrEP is highly effective for preventing HIV if it is used as prescribed. PrEP is much less effective when it is not taken consistently.” The court ruling is especially important as it will not only put pressure on pharmaceutical companies to lower the cost of the drug, but will now be available through the National Health Services (NHS), meaning that it will be widely available and accessible to a far wider range of people. “Condoms are cheap, but among some high-risk populations they are not used consistently. About 4,000 more people acquire HIV in the UK every year. The average cost of a lifetime of treating each one is put at about £360,000. The National Aids Trust brought the high court case following anger and consternation among campaigners after NHS England said it would not fund PrEP because it did not have the power to do so. It argued that it was the role of local authorities, which have been given control of public health measures including reducing smoking and family planning, as well as HIV prevention. Local authorities said they did not have the money to pay.” Accessible HIV prophylaxis is a huge step in prevention and despite the plans of NHS to appeal the decision, they are still putting aside funds for the cost of the medication.

Biodefense in Gaming Courtesy of Pandemic Inc game
Since we’re still reeling from the loss of prime-time contagion drama, nuclear systems engineer and aspiring biodefense wonk, Greg Witt, is helping us through this dark time via the enjoyable but inaccurate world of biodefense in gaming. Greg’s review of several popular video and board games will give you some great options for your next gaming adventure. “With pathogens like Zika, Ebola, and West Nile now household names, biodefense has rarely been more culturally relevant. Depictions of biodefense topics in popular culture are not limited to traditional media, though; numerous video games and board games have been released in the past few years in which biodefense plays an important role.” Discussing video games like Tom Clancy’s The Division and its underlying premise that is almost identical to Operation Dark Winter, to two of my personal favorites – Plague Inc. and Pandemic, Greg gives a tour through the minefield of biodefense gaming. Rest assured though, he points to the scientific failures and epidemiological snafus that plague these games, but do not ultimately deter our enjoyment while bringing biodefense to the general public.

Zika Updates 
Following last week’s news regarding a growing number of locally acquired cases in Florida, it was also reported that 41 U.S. military members have contracted Zika. “All cases were transmitted while abroad and one of the military service members is a pregnant female. Under Pentagon health policies, female service members are permitted to move out of countries where Zika exists.” Here’s a helpful little field guide for identifying the mosquitoes that are known to transmit Zika. A new model used by researchers from Northeastern University is pointing to a vastly underestimated amount of Zika in the U.S. They note that there is probably “way more Zika in the U.S. than has been counted”. Case counts are especially challenging in a disease that leaves many asymptomatic and unlikely to be tested. In response to the growing number of locally-acquired cases (currently at 14 cases) in Miami-Dade County, there will be aerial spraying for mosquito control.  The CDC has reported 1,825 total Zika infections in the U.S. as of August 3rd and has issued a travel warning for the Miami area. President Obama also pleaded with Congress to “do its job” and approve funding to fight the growing outbreak. Donald Trump was also recently asked about how he would handle the outbreak, noting that Florida Governor, Rick Scott, “seems to have it under control”. 

Stories You May Have Missed:

  • In Memoriam of Dr. Roger Gerrard Breeze– Dr. Breeze, a preeminent veterinary research scientist and biosecurity expert passed away in late June in Washington, D.C. We are grateful to have had Dr. Breeze as a professor for GMU’s agroterrorism courses and his contribution to the field of genetic engineering and molecular biology. “Dr. Breeze was a Member of the UK Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons and a member of the U.S. National Academies – Institute of Medicine’s Forum on Microbial Threats and National Academies – Committee on Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures. For the past decade, Roger served as an advisor on biosecurity and biological/chemical weapons nonproliferation issues to the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.”
  • GMU Biodefense PhD Awarded FAA Graduate Research Grant– Biodefense PhD student, Nereyda Sevilla, was recently awarded a grant from the FAA for her dissertation; Germs on a Plane: The Transmission and Risks of Airplane-Borne Diseases. The Graduate Research Award Program on Public-Sector Aviation Issues is a joint sponsorship from the Federal Aviation Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation and administered by the Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) of the Transportation Research Board/National Academies. You can read more about Nereyda’s work with the surveillance tool, Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM), here.

 

Biodefense in Gaming: Enjoyable but Inaccurate

by spopescu, posted in Commentary

By Greg Witt

With pathogens like Zika, Ebola, and West Nile now household names, biodefense has rarely been more culturally relevant. One needs look no further for proof than the sudden proliferation of TV shows and movies taking on these themes, including The Last Ship, Containment, and Helix. Depictions of biodefense topics in popular culture are not limited to traditional media, though; numerous video games and board games have been released in the past few years in which biodefense plays an important role. Here are a few of the more notable games:

Dead Island: This 2011 video game involves a genetically-modified version of kuru that is transmissible by blood and turns people into zombies. The disease is released by a shadowy corporation as a biological weapons test on some fictional islands off the coast of Papua New Guinea. With respect to scientific accuracy, the developers make a number of major errors; for example, they repeatedly refer to kuru as a virus when it is actually a neurodegenerative condition caused by a prion. Such creative liberties are understandable considering that a disease with an incubation period of 10+ years would make for a rather boring game. In the end, these epidemiological details are merely window dressing intended to give the game a pseudoscientific backstory in the name of narrative expediency and exciting gameplay.

Tom Clancy’s The Division: In the world of biodefense, few pathogens are as feared as variola, and rightly so. Playing on this concern, The Division follows government agents attempting to restore order in New York City as society collapses in the aftermath of a smallpox attack in the heart of Manhattan. While the specifics of the disease and the outbreak are largely glossed over, the game’s depiction of the aftermath of such an epidemic is eerily plausible, including misdiagnosis of the initial infections, exponential spread of the virus, and the collapse of the public health system under the unprecedented strain of massive casualties. The premise for the story is almost identical to Operation Dark Winter, a simulation conducted in 2001 to analyze US government preparedness for a hypothetical smallpox attack. Ultimately, the variola outbreak is just a plot device to set the stage for a post-apocalyptic shooter, but the game does succeed in bringing some long-overdue attention to the potential threats posed by biological terrorism and the genetic engineering of pathogens.

Plague Inc.: This strategy game presents a twist on biodefense, as players take on the role of a pathogen, starting as a bacteria, virus, or parasite, and attempt to eliminate humanity. As time passes and more people are infected, the disease can be upgraded by adding new symptoms (such as coughing, pulmonary edema, or kidney failure) and modes of transmission (such as airborne or vector-borne). Humanity does not go gentle into that good night, however, and fights back by trying to develop a cure and by taking interim measures like the closure of land borders and airports. For a free smartphone app, it actually provides a surprisingly accurate and comprehensive simulation of a pandemic. For example, players must balance transmissibility, infectivity, and lethality in order to maximize the spread of their pathogen.

Pandemic: If you prefer saving the world to destroying it, the cooperative board game Pandemic offers you and 1 to 3 companions the chance to work together to save the human race from not one, but four different virulent and highly contagious pathogens. The game starts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention headquarters in Atlanta as biodefense experts and medical personnel scramble around the world in an attempt to contain major outbreaks and ultimately discover and disseminate a cure for each illness. Taking on such roles as “Quarantine Specialist” and “Epidemiologist”, players must contend with scarce resources and the frustration of always having to play catch-up to a constantly morphing and unpredictable threat, a feeling that real biodefense experts know all too well. While never delving too deeply into the specifics of the pathogens or the actual science behind epidemic response, Pandemic provides invaluable insight into the world of those working every day to keep our society safe from biological threats.

When judging the accuracy of these games, a noticeable pattern begins to emerge. Action and shooting games tend to gloss over the epidemiological details and use biological agents and epidemics as merely a plot device or a token justification for the setting. Since these titles are usually focused on fast-paced action and interpersonal relationships, it is understandable that the developers would take poetic license with their depictions of pathogens and epidemics. Strategy games, on the other hand, tend to explore the complexities of pandemic response and provide the player with much better insight into the worlds of epidemiology and biodefense. Other than biological inaccuracies, the most glaring flaw in the depiction of epidemics in gaming is the assumption that some omnipotent intergovernmental organization can take all steps necessary to contain and cure the outbreak. In reality, it could be argued that the greatest challenge is presented not by the contagion itself, but by the inability of different stakeholders to cooperate, in addition to the obviously extreme differences in response infrastructure.

One crucial commonality between all four games is the depiction of virulent and contagious pathogens as existential threats that must be confronted sooner rather than later. So while the actual science and politics on display can often be questionable, these games are an invaluable tool for bringing biodefense to the attention of the general public. And of course it doesn’t hurt if we get to play some enjoyable games along the way!

 

 

Week in DC: Events 8.1-8.5.2016

by spopescu, posted in Events

Monday, August 1, 2016
The World According To Star Wars– Cato Institute
Time: noon-1:30pm
Location: Cato Institute1000 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001 (map)
Featuring the author Cass R. Sunstein, Robert Walmsley University Professor, Harvard Law School; with comments by Ilya Somin, Professor, George Mason University Law School; and Michael F. Cannon Director of Health Policy Studies, Cato Institute; moderated by Aaron Ross Powell, Editor, Libertarianism.org and Research Fellow, Cato Institute.
The mythology at the heart of the Star Wars motion pictures has become a powerful common language for talking about not just good versus evil, fathers and sons, and destiny and choice, but also foundational political ideas like the role of government, the nature of power, the decay of institutions, and the need for and permissibility of rebellion and revolution. In The World According to Star Wars, legal scholar Cass R. Sunstein offers insights on theses topics and more, showing how and why Star Wars resonates so deeply with so many and what it has to teach us about the most important questions we face today. If you can’t make it to the event, you can watch it live online at www.cato.org/live and join the conversation on Twitter using #CatoEvents. Follow @CatoEvents on Twitter to get future event updates, live streams, and videos from the Cato Institute. Online registration for this event is now closed. If you are interested in registering for this event, please email events [at] cato.org.

Tuesday , August 2, 2016
Environmental Open House– Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Time: 4-6pm
Location: John Hopkins1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 (map)
Room: Kenney-Herter Auditorium – The Nitze Building
The Energy, Resources and Environment (ERE) Program at Johns Hopkins SAIS is hosting an environmental recruting event on August 2 to present ERE program information to prospective students and environmental employers and interns. Continue reading “Week in DC: Events 8.1-8.5.2016” →

Pandora Report: 7.29.2016

by spopescu, posted in Pandora Report

Happy Friday! With the Olympics right around the corner, there’s a lot of buzz surrounding the games (not just Aedes mosquitoes) and the athlete living quarters. Make sure to watch the PBS special, “Spillover- Zika, Ebola & Beyond“, on August 3rd at 10/9c. The special will look at the rise of spillover diseases like Nipah and the impact of human behavior on the spread of zoonotic diseases. The Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA) reported a new study that finds three key factors increase the risk for patient-to-patient transmission of the extremely resistant CP-CRE. The Democratic National Convention closed last night and Hilary Clinton made it a point to say, “I believe in science”, which highlights  the stark differences between the candidates on topics like climate change and stem cell research. 

What Damage Could CRISPR Do To The BWC?
Daniel Gerstein points to the approaching Eighth Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention and the assessment of new technologies, like CRISPR. Since James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, stated that genome editing is a global danger, many are waiting to see what the convention will say about the future threats of technologies like CRISPR. Gerstein notes that, “if the seven previous review conferences are any indication, the gathering in November will recognize Crispr’s contribution to the biotech field, then enthusiastically declare the convention fit to address any problems it might create. But will that be enough?” The flexible nature of the convention is meant to support the ever-changing world of science and technology, however this also means that any potential bans on experiments are that much more challenging. In his article, Gerstein discusses the assessment of CRISPR as a nonproliferation threat and the risks associated with limiting technological innovation. Despite the challenges of banning certain biotechnologies, there are things that can still be done within the conference. Surveillance and training are imperative, especially in terms of “spotting the development of new pathogens or the modification of existing ones”, and national responsibility needs to be part of this equation. Gerstein’s points on not just national implementation, but also national responsibility emphasizes the transition from a traditional method into an emphasis on people and activities. Practices need to match the pace of biotech development, which means expanding the Implementation Support Unit, strengthening surveillance capabilities, and reinforcing institutional structures. “Those gathering at the review conference in November must seriously consider whether advances in biotechnology have made the existing bioweapons convention obsolete, but they must also ask what more the convention can do, as the reigning body for regulating biological weapons, to ensure that new biotechnologies continue to be used for peaceful purposes only.”

Half of Americans Say Infectious Disease Threats Are Growing  

Courtesy of Pew Research Center
Courtesy of Pew Research Center

The Pew Research Center conducted a recent survey in the wake of the very public Zika virus outbreak. While some may have noted that Americans aren’t as worried about Zika, the survey found that 51% of U.S. adults feel that, compared to 20 years ago, there are more infectious diseases threats to health today. 82% of Americans polled stated that they pay at least some attention to the news regarding infectious disease outbreaks and 58% believe that Zika is a major threat to the health of women who are pregnant. 31% believe that Zika is a major threat to the U.S. population as a whole, while 58% felt it was a minor threat. The poll also found that more people had heard of Ebola at the time of the 2014 outbreak than Zika as a problem right now. Broken down by demographics, those most worried about Zika include older adults, especially women.

Containment: Lessons Learned and Cringe-Worthy Moments2015_0326_Biohazard_Suits
Tuesday nights won’t be the same since Containment ended – what will we do without the asymptomatic super-spreaders like Thomas, the overly gory hemorrhaging, or the suspension of infection prevention practices? Like any science-based show, there are moments of accuracy and moments of pure dramatic exaggeration. Check out our list of the things we enjoyed about the show and some of the more eye-rolling moments. While it’s rare to have a prime-time show involving an outbreak, we’re hoping that the future will hold more scientifically accurate series that will dismantle the hysteria we too often see during public health emergencies.

Australia Utilizes Bioterrorism Algorithm to Predict Flu Outbreaks
Victoria’s health department is currently using a tool, EpiDefend, that can “accurately predict flu outbreaks up to eight weeks in advance.” Combining environmental data, lab results, and more, the tool is funded by the US Department of Defense and designed by the Australian Department of Science and Technology (DST) to aid in Australian disease prediction practices and strengthen global bio-surveillance. ”Our team’s goal is dual-purpose, we want to fulfil our defence charter, protecting our forces against intentionally released biological agents; but disease forecasting will also support the national security and public health areas,” said Tony Lau, defence scientist. EpiDefend incorporates electronic health records (EHR) via the healthcare sector, which means it can be especially powerful, but also requires the presence and reliability of EHR. The system uses an algorithm that is still being refined. “Particle filtering is a technique which helps us close in on the degree of uncertainty by the help of information gathered from particular situation. In other words, it helps the algorithm churn out more precise readings.”

Zika Virus
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has published a webpage on what you need to know about Zika virus. A recent study is estimating that as many as 1.65 million women in Latin American could be infected while pregnant. Researchers, from another study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, are pointing to a low risk for international Zika spread from the 2016 Olympics in Brazil.  Researchers calculated “the worst-case estimates of travel-associated Zika virus by assuming visitors encounter the same infections exposures as local residents. This is highly unlikely, as visitors would be staying in screened and air-conditioned accommodations, as well as taking personal preventive measures. But under the authors’ pessimistic conditions, they estimate an individual traveler’s probability to acquire infection in Rio de Janeiro is quite low. Specifically, they estimate anywhere from 6 to 80 total infections with between and one and 16 of those infected experiencing any symptoms.” Florida officials announced the investigation of another two potential cases of local-transmission. These new cases have pushed the FDA to curb blood collection in Florida. A new study performed a real-time Zika risk assessment in the U.S, suggesting that 21 Texas counties along the Texas-Mexico border, the Houston Metro area, and throughout the I-35 corridor (San Antonio to Waco) have the greatest risk for sustained transmission. As of July 27th, the CDC has reported 1,658 cases of Zika in the U.S. 

Stories You May Have Missed: 

  • CSIS Curated Conversations on Pandemic Preparedness & the World Bank – The Center for Strategic & International Studies has made its Curated Conversations podcast available on iTunes, which means you can check out the June 3rd episode, “the World Bank President on Preventing the Next Pandemic”. The World Bank Group president, Jim long Kim, discusses funding to help prevent the next pandemic and lessons learned from Ebola.
  • Joint West Africa Biopreparedness Efforts – The DOD is investing in the Joint West Africa Research Group to help improve and sustain biopreparedness within the region. Following the Ebola outbreak, this new program will build upon existing programs and strengthen lab and clinical resources, as well as biosurveillance efforts.
  • Yellow Fever in the Americas? The Pan American Health Organization is currently investigating a case of yellow fever in a man who traveled to Angola. Genetic testing is underway, but there is concern that the virus could ramp up in the Americas during a vaccine shortage.

Containment: the Good, the Bad, and the Contagious

by spopescu, posted in Commentary

Last week saw the series finale of the CW show, Containment. The show’s plot revolves around a mysterious and dangerous outbreak that we follow through the lives of several characters. “When a mysterious epidemic breaks out in Atlanta, an urban quarantine is enforced, leaving those inside to fight for their lives as local and federal officials search for a cure. Police officer Lex Carnahan works to keep the peace, but the situation becomes personal when he learns his girlfriend Jana and his best friend Jake are both stuck in the cordoned area. Also trapped with the infected are 17-year-old Teresa, who is very pregnant and separated from her boyfriend, elementary teacher Katie Frank, who is on lockdown with her entire class, and CDC researcher Dr. Victor Cannerts. Public trust deteriorates as a journalist, Leo, begins chasing down a conspiracy that unravels the official story.” 

While we love a show involving outbreaks, quarantines, and the politics of disease, it’s rare that the producers actually get the science correct. Like Neil deGrasse Tyson did for astrophysics in films, we’re looking at some of the issues with Containment. Here are some of the lessons learned (pro’s) and cringe-worthy (cons) moments throughout the show:

Scientific Lessons Learned

  • Quarantine/Isolation is vital
  • PPE goes a long way – avoid those bodily fluids
  • Fear and hysteria follow outbreaks like a mosquito loves BBQ’s
  • Biology and epidemiology started off strong….
  • Social distancing is a good practice
  • Genetically engineered viruses are a concern with GoF research
  • Lack of cure – thankfully, it showed the reality that not all diseases get a miracle cure
  • Tensions between Federal versus local and law enforcement versus public health (which is especially prudent with the current situation of San Juan suing the CDC over pesticide spraying). Consider these tensions during Amerithrax, when the FBI wanted to treat the AMI building as a crime scene, while the CDC wanted to go in and do testing, etc. In fact, these lessons have fueled the support for forensic epidemiology, which seeks to combine public health and law enforcement in order to facilitate a better working relationship.
  • Hospitals are woefully unprepared for emerging or unknown diseases, which makes them the perfect transmission tool for diseases (remember Ebola and MERS?).

Cringe-Worth Moments

  • Using the same PPE over and over again
  • Who has jurisdiction for the whole Cordon? State of emergency? Chain of command?
  • Is it really possible a rogue CDC scientist would be able to secretly get away with illegal experiments and work?
  • Why is there such massive hemorrhaging for some and not others?
  • GoF justification due to concerns for bioweapons? Creating chimeric viruses as a biodefense strategy is wrong on so many levels.
  • Do police and tactical people not need PPE?
  • Body disposal and then photo-taking (post-mortem identification) without changing gloves or cleaning hands – apparently not a source of transmission…
  • Never seems to be a consistent route of transmission or isolation practice.
  • People are worried about being touched, but don’t seem to spend much time on environmental decontamination
  • Sadly, science behind the series started to wane as time progressed….

Pandora Report: 7.22.2016

by spopescu, posted in Pandora Report

Those antibiotic-resistant bugs just won’t quit – researchers in Florida found drug-resistant organisms in the water and sediment from a sewer-line spill in 2014.  If you’ve got live poultry in your backyard, make sure to check out the advice from the CDC as there’s been a large outbreak associated with poultry. The recent Salmonella outbreak across 45 states has resulted in 611 cases, 138 hospitalizations, and 1 death. With the news of the first CRISPR human trials starting next month, many are wondering if the pro-CRISPR team has their heads in the sand regarding gene-editing safety.

The Soviet Biological Weapons Program in Today’s Russia
The Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction (CSWMD) at the National Defense University has published their first WMD case study, focussing on the driving factors for Russia’s offensive program following the termination of the U.S. program in 1969. Raymond Zilinskas discusses President Nixon’s decision to end the U.S. offensive biological weapons program and why the Soviet decision was in such a sharp contrast. Through a review of the generations of Soviet bioweapons programs, “the two authors of an extensive history of the Soviet BW program, one of whom is the author of this paper, were able to collect sufficient information from their interviews with Biopreparat employees, autobiographies written by weapons scientists, and articles written by investigative Russian reporters to describe and discuss important aspects of Soviet decisionmaking concerning BW.” In the second part of the paper, Zilinskas focuses on the driving force behind the massive Soviet push for an offensive program in the 1970s and Vladimir Putin’s historical comments on the development of “high technologies including genetics”. Zilinskas notes that given the secrecy, it’s possible that Putin may be instituting a third generation BW program.

The Rise of HIV Cases
HIV data over the past 10 years has revealed an increased rate of infection in 74 countries. While AIDS deaths have fallen, the rate of new infections is growing. Researchers reported countries like Egypt, Pakistan, Kenya, the Philippines, Cambodia, Mexico, and Russia, have all seen increased HIV infections since 2005. “The new research, released at the International AIDS Conference in Durban, South Africa, also found that while the global number of new cases continues to decline, the pace has greatly slowed. New infections of HIV fell by an average of only 0.7% per year between 2005 and 2015, compared to the 2.7% drop per year between 1997 and 2005.” The data raises concerns about meeting the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal to see the end of AIDS in less than 15 years, not to mention the startling reality that we’re still a ways off from ending the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The study also found that women tend to die at younger ages from HIV/AIDS, which matches the age-disparate relationships that are prevalent. A recent BBC article on cultural practices in Malawi may give some insight as to why younger women may be at risk for HIV infections and subsequent AIDS deaths. 

2016 Presidential Candidates on Nuclear Weapons
You can’t get much more on the agenda than a norovirus among GOP convention staffers, so here’s hoping global health security will make it to the agenda in this year’s presidential election. GMU Biodefense MS student Greg Mercer provides us with a recap of where the candidates stand on nonproliferation. Following the GOP convention, it’ll be interesting to see how the Democratic convention addresses WMD’s. “Working off draft copies of the two parties’ respective platforms, here’s a look at what the two-party system has to say about non-proliferation for the next four years. These are dramatic, confrontational texts, each calling out the opposing party’s leadership and policies.”

Zika Virus Outbreak – Weekly Status Updates
A study published in Science addresses the need for new control strategies with the most recent outbreak. “The rise of Zika after its long persistence as a disease of apparently little importance highlights how little we truly understand about the global spread of mosquito-borne viruses and other lesser known diseases,” says Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Bloomberg School who led the study along with Lelia Chaisson, a student in the department. “Over the past decades, dengue, chikungunya, West Nile virus and now Zika have emerged or re-emerged across the globe. Yet why these viruses have expanded their range and others have failed to invade areas potentially ripe for their spread remains a mystery.” Within the paper, researchers touch on the two main theories as to why Zika is currently causing so many problems- the virus has mutated and become more infectious or pathogenic, or previous outbreaks were in small populations and produced little understanding of health effects. Senior Fellows with Results for America, Michael Gerson and Raj Shah, are discussing what the U.S. needs to do to fight Zika.  Aside from resources (financial and trained personnel), they’re pointing to the need for the U.S. to take on global leadership to help coordinate a strategy, especially in the wake of the post-Ebola reviews that have been released. Florida health officials are currently investigating two potential cases of local transmission. As of July 20, 2016, the CDC reported 1,404 cases of Zika virus in the U.S. 

E. coli Outbreaks Galore 18160_lores
Summer is the time for picnics and, sadly, food-borne illness. Twenty people have been hospitalized in Chicago as a result of an E. coli outbreak traced to the Carbón Live Fire Mexican Grill. Two customers who became ill have filed civil lawsuits against the company for compensation. There have been a total of 65 sickened from this particular outbreak. England has reported 151 cases of E. coli o157, including the deaths of two people. “PHE (Public Health England) has been working to establish the cause of the outbreak and has identified that several of the affected individuals ate mixed salad leaves including rocket leaves prior to becoming unwell. Currently, the source of the outbreak is not confirmed and remains under investigation; we are not ruling out other food items as a potential source.” As you previously read, Salmonella has also been quite present this summer via the 45-state outbreak involving backyard poultry.

Walmart Chemical Weapon?
Video footage was recently released that shows a man, police say, who has been accused of building a chemical weapon inside an Oxnard Walmart. Reports are saying that following his research online, the suspect, Martin Reyes, went into the store and began assembling a weapon from ingredients on the shelves and an electronic appliance. He used a store socket to plug in the appliance, which was designed to set off the weapon. Following his arrest, Reyes admitted the entire thing and told police how he had been planning to build the device. As more information is released regarding the event, we’ll keep you posted.

Stories You May Have Missed:

  • Agent X Concerns– Engineering of botulinum toxin during the height of bioweapon development was a major concern as the toxin is extremely lethal. Known as Agent X, researchers at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s Joint Science and Technology Office (JSTO) have been addressing the potential for weaponization. “Using tenants of Better Buying Power 3.0, a DoD initiative to achieve dominant capabilities through innovation, JSTO collaborated with the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Chemical Defense (USAMRICD), the Israel Institute for Biological Research (IIBR) and Hawaii Biotech, Inc., to tackle this complex issue. By pooling resources, JSTO incentivizes productivity in industry and government, while creating a consortium aimed to develop the first novel small organic molecules BoNT inhibitors (SMIs) as well as provide proof-of-concept for regenerative medicine using insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF -1)”
  • Yellow Fever Outbreak Situation Report: The WHO released their sit-rep on the yellow fever outbreak that started in Angola in December 2015. As of July 8th, there have been 3,625 cases in Angola and 1,798 cases in the DRC. Kenya and the People’s Republic of China have confirmed imported cases as a result of travel. There is currently a push for mass vaccination campaigns to help control the spread to the disease.
  • Headway in Ebola Vaccine– Soligenix, Inc. announced their positive preliminary proof-of-concept results in efforts to produce a heat stable subunit Ebola vaccine. “These studies identified a formulation that maintained the physical state of the Ebola subunit protein despite incubation at 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) for 12 weeks.”
  • Silk Road Disease Transmission– Researchers found some of the first solid evidence of disease transmission along the Silk Road. Bamboo sticks used (by travelers) as “bottom wipers” from a 2,000-year-old Chinese latrine pit were analyzed. Fecal matter samples from these bottom wipers were positive for eggs from four species of parasites. The parasites, including the Chinese liver fluke, “needs marshy conditions to complete its life cycle, so could not have come from the desert area around the ancient Xuanquanzhi relay station.”

 

The 2016 Democratic and Republican Platforms Have Things to Say About Nuclear Weapons

by spopescu, posted in Commentary

By Greg Mercer

This week, the Republican Convention and the Trump campaign brought spectacle and controversy to Cleveland. The Democratic Convention is set for next week in Philadelphia and will presumably be a tamer affair. Working off draft copies of the two parties’ respective platforms, here’s a look at what the two-party system has to say about non-proliferation for the next four years. These are dramatic, confrontational texts, each calling out the opposing party’s leadership and policies.

The Republican Platform starts off the strategic weapons discussion with a Reagan-era throwback, calling for “the development and deployment of ballistic missile defenses.” The platform argues that reduction in interceptor ground sites in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Alaska have made the U.S. vulnerable to nuclear attack. It characterizes the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) as weak on verifications and an enabler of a Russian nuclear buildup. Meanwhile, it argues that Russia has violated the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). While not explicitly stated in the platform, this controversy has some history: some have accused Russia of possessing cruise missiles that violate the INF—Russia has argued that American drone strikes violate the same. The platform presents two treaties: one too weak to identify violations, and another flagrantly violated.

Rather than trigger these treaties’ enforcement mechanisms, the platform insists that (if you’ll forgive the block quote):

“We should abandon arms control treaties that benefit our adversaries without improving our national security. We must fund, develop, and deploy a multi-layered missile defense system. We must modernize nuclear weapons and their delivery platforms, end the policy of Mutually Assured Destruction, and rebuild relationships with our allies, who understand that as long as the U.S. nuclear arsenal is their shield, they do not need to engage in nuclear proliferation.” Continue reading “The 2016 Democratic and Republican Platforms Have Things to Say About Nuclear Weapons” →

Week in DC: 7.18-22.2016

by spopescu, posted in Events, Week In DC

Monday, July 18, 2016
Naval Warfare: The Strategic Influence Of Sea Power- Institute of World Politics
Time: 4pm
Location: Institute of World Politics1521 16th Street NW Washington, DC (map)
Register
The historical significance of sea power has been long since established. In 1890, naval expert Alfred Thayer Mahan authored a well-regarded and timeless book, ‘The Influence of Sea Power upon History’ which outlined the influential history and perpetual importance of naval warfare. The concepts in Mahan’s book have largely become a foundation for how experts currently regard naval strategy. Building off of these concepts, today’s lecture will explain the impact of naval thought on the current geo-political system and the modern implications of naval supremacy.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Iraqi Foreign Minister On Aid, ISIS And Reconciliation– United States Institute of Peace
Time: 1:30-2:30pm
Location: US Institute of Peace2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. (map)
As the government of Iraq fights a war against the extremist group, engagement with regional and international partners is essential in shaping the country’s future. Dr. Al-Jaafari, who has served as foreign minister since 2014, has worked with counterparts abroad to secure the military, humanitarian and development aid as well as the political support that Iraq needs to resolve the conflict, end political stagnation and assist the millions of citizens driven from their homes by the fighting. His address at USIP also will touch on the imperative for reconciliation to resolve underlying conflicts and stabilize areas after they are liberated from ISIS control. Continue reading “Week in DC: 7.18-22.2016” →

Pandora Report: 7.15.2016

by spopescu, posted in Pandora Report

Happy Friday! Don’t forget to read that Federal Select Agent Program report we revealed last week, as many are shocked to find the 199 lab mishaps that occurred. Check out these One Health researchers who are trying to predict and prevent the next disease that will run rampant like Ebola. You can also listen to Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, talk about how superbugs are beating us. Have we reached the end of the Golden Age of antibiotics? 

International Security & Foreign Policy Implications of Overseas Disease Outbreaks Screen Shot 2016-07-12 at 8.40.13 AM
A recent report by the International Security Advisory Board (a Federal  Advisory Committee) has been released regarding the security implications of infectious disease outbreaks and the efforts of the WHO, the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC), international academies, etc. Within the report there is a heavy focus on how the Department of State should prepare for such global health challenges and a series of structural solutions, capacity issues, and opportunities that can be taken. The National Bureau of Economic Research recently found that a global pandemic would cost $570 billion per year. “The links between disease and security have become clearer as more disease threats have emerged and global interconnectedness makes a threat anywhere, a threat everywhere. There are few threats to the United States and its global interests that match the potential scale and scope of the threat to life and security and economic interests than those from infectious disease outbreaks, whether naturally occurring or intentionally caused.” Some of the recommendations emphasized the strengthening of U.S. government coordination through the development of plans for responding to such public health emergencies in areas out of control of a central government and/or hostile to U.S. government involvement. Additional recommendations included strengthening by fully integrating public health emergencies and the associated challenges into the national security agenda by “providing resources, developing organizational leadership within the U.S. and internationally, and developing and exercising appropriate plans for preparing for, preventing, and responding to threats.” Whether they are natural, deliberate, or accidental, globalization makes the threat of these outbreaks that much more dangerous.”Public health is now a national security challenge and must be treated as such in terms of planning, resources, and organizational support. It is essential to refocus the U.S. approach to this threat, and to invest in the appropriate level of ‘insurance’ just as we do for traditional defense related needs.”

The National Biodefense Strategy Act of 2016
Introduced in May by Sen. Ron Johnson, the bill amends the Homeland Security Act of 2002 “to require the President to establish a Biodefense Coordination Council to develop a national strategy to help the federal government prevent and respond to major biological incidents.” The bill defines biodefense as “any involvement in mitigating the risks of major biological incidents and public health emergencies to the United States, including with respect to- threat awareness, prevention and protection, surveillance and detection, response and recovery, and attribution of an intentional biological incident.” Within the bill, the President must establish a Biodefense Coordination Council and develop a National Biodefense Strategy in which there must be status updates to Congress every 180 days. The strategy must be updated at least every five years and the bill also requires that an annual report with detailed expenditures and their relevance to the strategy is submitted. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently released its summary on the costs of S. 2967 – “CBO estimates that enacting S. 2967 would cost less than $500,000 annually and about $2 million over the 2017-2021 period; any such spending would be subject to the availability of appropriated funds.”

The Growing Cost of the Next Flu Pandemic
A recent study from researchers at the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) utilized advanced methodology to calculate the total cost of an influenza outbreak. SRA’s work concluded that if the public used flu vaccines during the pandemic, the U.S. GDP loss would be $34.4 billion. In the event that flu vaccines weren’t used, the cost would rise to $45.3 billion. This particular study is unique in that it addresses public, government, and business responses to an epidemic. Conducted as part of a project by the the Department of Homeland Security’s National Biosurveillance Integration Center (NBIC), the study estimates “the relative prominence of the various economic consequence types,’ as well as complicating factors, many of them not addressed in any prior study. These complicating factors include different types of avoidance behavior, such as the already noted avoidance of public events and facilities.”

A New Case of Super Resistant E. Coli 
A second patient in the U.S. has been found to carry the colistin-resistant E. coli that raised concern in late May when it was also found in Pennsylvanian woman. Colistin resistance means that the antibiotic of last resort, colistin, is no longer effective at killing the organism. The most recent was reported to have had surgery in a New York hospital last year, which begs the question – is this where it was acquired? Were post-operative antibiotics not discontinued properly? The second case is fueling public health fear over the spread of this resistant gene, especially in regards to bacteria that are currently only susceptible to colistin. In the wake of these findings, many are pushing for increased surveillance and focus on antibiotic resistance. “The CDC is planning to establish seven regional laboratories this fall that will have the capacity to do better and faster testing for a broad range of antimicrobial resistance.”

One Health & Antimicrobial Resistance 
On Wednesday, the One Health Commission held a webinar on antimicrobial resistance in the environment. Led by Dr. Laura Kahn, the presentation focussed on the challenges of feeding billions, the growth of antibiotic use in meat, and the reality that antibiotic resistance is an integral part of 21st century challenges. In general, people are eating more meat, with China shouldering a 147% growth in meat consumption, while the U.S. has remained unchanged. Antibiotic usage in meat is not the only concerning source as sewage sludge can easily be a source of antibiotic exposure for animals. Dr. Kahn also discussed that from 2000-2010, global human antibiotic consumption has grown 37% and the top antibiotic consumers are India, China, and the U.S. Interestingly, India and Pakistan have some of the most resistance microbes in the world. A Dutch study looking at archived soil from 1942-2008 found that there were increasing concentrations of resistant genes as time progressed. Expanding human population and demand for animal proteins, rising human and animal waste production, poor sanitation, indiscriminate antibiotic usage, and land/water contamination are all fueling the rise of antibiotic resistance and altering the “global resistome”. So what can be done? Dr. Kahn noted the potential role of bacteriophages as a means of fighting bacteria and the growing threat of microbial resistance. Overall, we need to understand the microbial world better, decrease antimicrobial usage, and tap into the bacteriophage resource.

Weekly Zika News
As more Zika cases are found within the U.S., many are wondering why Congress is holding up funding. Here’s a map of California and where you can expect to find mosquitoes that have the potential to transmit Zika. The CDC has a national map you can also reference with estimated range of the Aedes mosquitoes. Infectious disease and mosquito control expert, Duane Gubler, notes that spraying may not be successful against the Aedes mosquito.  The difficultly lies in that the Aedes mosquitoes tend to live in harder-to-reach areas (garbage, closets, indoors, etc.) and spraying is most effective against mosquitoes living in floodwater. Olympic risk for Zika is considered low following a CDC analysis, which concluded that the visitors expected at the games represent less than 0.25% of the total travel volume to Zika-affected countries. “Estimated travel to the U.S. from Rio for the Games is 0.11% of all 2015 U.S. travel from countries where Zika is now spreading, the CDC said.” You can read the official MMWR release here. Colombia’s low volume of microcephaly and birth defects following Zika infection during pregnancy offer some home that the outbreak may not be as bad as early estimates suggested. A new study published in the Lancet looks to women as possible modes of sexual transmission for Zika. “Our findings raise the threat of a woman potentially becoming a chronic Zika virus carrier, with the female genital tract persistently expressing the virus RNA. Additional studies are underway to answer those essential questions and to assess what would then be the consequences for women of child-bearing age”. CDC Director, Dr. Tom Frieden, writes about the lessons we can learn from the fading Ebola epidemic and how we can apply these to Zika.  Researchers have also recently written that the epidemic in Latin America is “likely to run its course within the next 18 months” – you can read their article in Science here. The CDC has reported 1,306 cases of Zika virus in the U.S as of July 13, 2016. 

Stories You May Have Missed:

  • Malaria and the Duration of Civil War – The Journal of Conflict Resolution recently published an article regarding the prolonging of civil war in relation to malaria. Just as geographical factors can impact the duration of civil war, researchers note that malaria can inflict costs and can “indirectly prolong civil war by helping to maintain a socio-geographic environment that is conducive to insurgency”. The rotation of government forces also means they’re likely to have exposures to malaria.
  • The Current State of Our Immunity – Infectious disease physician Dr. Amesh Adalja discusses 21st century immunity to disease. Drawing from points made in Taylor Antrim’s Immunity (set in a post-pandemic world following the 4% loss of global life due to a genetic recombinant of influenza and Lassa Fever), Dr. Adalja relates many of the lessons from his experiences during the West Africa Ebola outbreak and the impact of poverty on resilience. “Today, worldwide extreme poverty — in real terms — is at its lowest. Smallpox has been vanquished with polio and guinea worm about to follow suit. Even Ebola, because of major advances that have occurred in the basic understanding of the clinical illness as well as in vaccine technology since the last outbreak, has been substantially defanged.”
  • The Growing Misuse of Toxic Weapons: Attend the seminar on Monday, July 18th (3:30-5pm) at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (1400 K St. NW, Suite 1225, Washington, DC). “We are witnessing today a global threat of toxic chemicals as a means of warfare or terror.  The recent use of chemical weapons and dual-use toxic chemicals in both Syria and Iraq, and possible terrorist attacks against chemical infrastructure, are visible confirmations of a growing threat of misuse of chemicals. This seminar, organized by Green Cross International and the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, will present the results of Chemss2016, an April conference in Poland, including its Summit Declaration which addressed challenges, goals, guidelines, and principles of global cooperation against chemical threats today.”

 

Week in DC: Events July 11-15, 2016

by spopescu, posted in Events, Week In DC

Monday, July 11, 2016
How To Defeat Terrorism In Iraq– Institute of World Politics
Time: 1-2:30pm
Location: The Institute of World Politics1521 16th St NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA (map)
Sheikh Jamal al-Dhari will share his vision for his country: a political re-crafting of the existing government structure away from sectarianism and towards a new consitution based on Iraqi national citizenship and inclusive of participation from all sectarian communities. HE Sheikh Jamal al-Dhari is the Chairman of the Iraq National Project and President of Peace Ambassadors for Iraq (PAFI). One of the leaders of the al-Zoba tribe in Iraq, he is the nephew of the late Islamic scholar and religious leader Sheikh Harith al-Dhari. Jamal was born in the Abu Ghraib district of Iraq on July 16, 1965. He grew up within the al-Zoba tribe and in the 1970s he attended the Hafsa School. In the 1980s, Jamal was conscripted into the Iraqi Army to fight in the Iran- Iraq War.  During his time on the frontline, he fought alongside both Sunni and Shia officers and friends, in the Iraqi Republican Guard. Following the 2003 invasion of Iraq by coalition forces, Jamal was a strong proponent of Iraqi nationalism and self-rule.  In 2005, he and his family fought against al-Qaeda’s occupation of Iraqi territory and, as a consequence, Jamal lost 70 members of his family in the struggle. In 2014, Jamal helped to establish the nonprofit think tank Peace Ambassadors for Iraq, whose purpose is to advocate for a renewed system of government in Iraq, to determine the best policies to fully eliminate ISIS/Daesh and other terrorist forces from Iraq, and to build international support for an all-inclusive Iraq. Presently, Jamal is working for a renewal in Iraq by forging a non-sectarian and inclusive settlement for all Iraqis.

Tuesday, July 12, 2016
Opportunities And Challenges In Implementing The Iran Nuclear Deal– Bipartisan Policy Center
Time: 10am-noon
Location: Bipartisan Policy Center1225 I Street, NW Suite 1000, Washington, D.C. 20005 (map)
On July 14, 2015, President Obama announced that international negotiators had reached agreement on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), “a comprehensive, long-term deal with Iran that will prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon.” Robust debate followed, with supporters of the deal arguing that it would put in place verifiable restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program and critics worried that it would do too little to prevent Iranian cheating while leaving other issues—Iran’s ballistic missiles and its support for terrorism, for example—off the table. As the first anniversary of the JCPOA approaches, it is possible to assess how the deal has fared thus far and what challenges or opportunities its implementation might present going forward. Please join the Bipartisan Policy Center for a keynote address by Ambassador Stephen Mull, the State Department’s lead coordinator for Iran nuclear implementation, and an expert panel discussion. The event will be streamed live on this page. Join the discussion on Twitter: @BPC_Bipartisan#BPClive

Wednesday, July 13, 2016
Russia’s AIDS Epidemic: Truths, Policies, And Future Outlook– Center on Global Interests
Time: 10:30-noon
Location: Human Rights Council 1640 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC, 20036 (map)
Russia is home to one of Europe’s largest and fastest growing HIV/AIDS infected populations. As of 2016, more than 1 million people are registered on the country’s official HIV-positive list. What factors led to Russia’s AIDS epidemic, and will it continue to grow? How have policymakers responded to the crisis? And what do these responses say about Russia’s current political, social, and economic environment? As the world’s public health leaders prepare to meet in South Africa for the AIDS 2016 summit, the Center on Global Interests is pleased to invite you to this timely discussion with Robert Heimer, Professor of Epidemiology and Pharmacology at the Yale School of Public Health and Olga Levina, Development Director at Stellit, a St. Petersburg-based public health NGO. Judyth Twigg, Professor of Political Science and senior fellow (non-resident) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies will moderate the conversation. Continue reading “Week in DC: Events July 11-15, 2016” →