The Pandora Report

August 25, 2014 

Turkey, Iraq, and the Kurdistan Regional Government
Date: August 25, 2:00pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 6^th Floor Conference Room, Washington DC

The advances of ISIS have reheated the debate on the future of Iraq. The country is threatened by a new wave of violence and destruction, as a large swath of territory has turned into a conflict zone and an uprising has shaken the political order. The relative stability of Northern Iraq appeared to be strengthened, as the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) initially managed to keep the conflict at bay in the territories it controls. However the recent advances of ISIS have also underscored the fragile security environment in the country to which the KRG is also subject. The developments also highlighted the delicate position of many ethnic and religious groups most notably Turkmen, Yazidis and Christians. Turkey has both opportunities and challenges in Iraq, and keeps a close eye on the situation there. In this discussion, experts will address the future of Iraq and the KRG in the context of the current crisis, and will shed light on Turkey’s perspectives on the KRG, energy issues, minorities, and Iraq in general.

This event is co-organized by the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM).

RSVP here.

August 26, 2014

What About Jordan: Does Regional Crisis Threaten the Security of a Longstanding American Ally?
Date: August 26, 12:00pm
Location: Hudson Institute, 1015 15^th Street NW, 6^th Floor, Washington DC 20005

A U.S. ally for more than half a century, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is one of the pillars of American Middle East policy. But this longtime bulwark of stability in an otherwise dangerous and volatile region is now being buffeted by powerful—and unwelcome—winds of change. Two of its bordering neighbors, Syria and Iraq, are engulfed in civil wars featuring both active Iranian involvement and well-resourced Sunni extremists like the Islamic State. Moreover, the role of Hamas in West Bank politics remains an unsettled question. Domestically, Jordan has been suffering a severe refugee crisis for more than a decade, to which the Syrian conflict alone has recently added another million-plus civilian exiles. Can Jordan continue to manage the various emergencies on its doorstep? What can the American government do to help one of its key Middle East partners?

On August 26th, Hudson Institute will host an expert panel—Senior Fellow and moderator Lee Smith joined by Faysal Itani, Salameh Nematt, and David Schenker—for a discussion about the present state and future prospects of Jordan and its central role in American Middle East policy.

Event will be streamed live online here.

August 27, 2014

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria: Return of the Caliphate?
Date: August 27, 2:00pm
Location: Washington Times, 3600 New York Ave NE, Washington DC

In June, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS, also called ISIL) — a former al-Qaeda affiliate fighting against the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad — declared itself simply the “Islamic State” (the IS).  Claiming to have reestablished the Caliphate (in Arabic: Khilafah) that existed from 632 AD until it was abolished in 1924 by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of the Turkish Republic, the IS controls large parts of Iraq including the city of Mosul and the predominantly Sunni areas abutting Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.  In addition, the IS has reportedly seized over $400 million looted from Mosul’s central bank, as well as gold bullion, in addition to potential oil revenues from fields in Syria and Iraq.  IS has applied a ruthless set of policies, seemingly designed both to demonstrate its ideological bona fides and to terrify its enemies: crucifixions and beheadings, forced conversion of Christians, and destruction of Islamic shrines.

To register, email William Selig.

August 28, 2014

Public Opinion and War
Date: August 28, 2:00pm
Location: Cato Institute, 1000 Massachusetts Ave NW, Hayek Auditorium, Washington DC

Featuring Adam Berinsky, Professor of Political Science, MIT; John Mueller, Professor of Political Science, Ohio State University, Senior Fellow, Cato Institute; Jason Reifler, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Exeter; and Trevor Thrall, Associate Professor of Public and International Affairs, George Mason University; moderated by Justin Logan, Director of Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute.

When and why does the American public support war? Washington politicians and pundits often puzzle over these questions as they try to win support for their policies, but there is a large body of academic research on public opinion and war. Do events, such as casualties or the prospect of victory, affect support more, or do partisan identities or other attachments play a larger role? What sorts of arguments should hawks and doves make if they hope to win support for their views? Please join four leading political scientists as they examine the causes of public support for war.

Register here or watch online.

Fatal Assistance
Date: August 28, 5:00pm
Location: Center for Global Development, 2055 L Street NW, 5^th Floor, Washington DC 20036

CGD is pleased to announce a screening of Fatal Assistance, part of our film series, Global Development Matters.

Haitian born filmmaker Raoul Peck takes us on a 2-year journey inside the challenging, contradictory and colossal rebuilding efforts in post-earthquake Haiti. Through its provocative and radical point of view, Fatal Assistance offers a devastating indictment of the international community’s post-disaster idealism. The film dives headlong into the complexity of the reconstruction process and the practices and impact of worldwide humanitarian and development aid, revealing the disturbing extent of a general failure. We learn that a major portion of the money pledged to Haiti was never disbursed, nor made it into the actual reconstruction. Fatal Assistance leads us to one clear conclusion: current aid policies and practice in Haiti need to stop immediately.

Following the screening of the film, CGD Senior Fellows Vijaya Ramachandran and Michael Clemens will provide commentary, before opening the floor to questions from the audience.

Register here.

 August 19, 2014

History Impeded Future Progress in Northeast Asia
Date: August 19, 2:00 – 5:30pm
Location: Heritage Foundation, Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington DC 20002

The United States and its allies face growing security threats in Asia from North Korea and China. Given these challenges, it is critical that trilateral U.S.-Japan-South Korea relations remain strong. Yet Tokyo-Seoul relations are strained due to a difficult legacy of historical problems. What are the challenges to reconciliation and what steps can Japan and South Korea take? What role should Washington play to redirect attention toward common allied objectives? Join us for an expert discussion on Japan-Korea relations, and what it means from a U.S. perspective.

RSVP here.

August 20, 2014

Preempting Environmental and Human Security Crises in Africa: Science-Based Planning for Climate Variability Threats
Date: August 20, 10:00am
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 6^th Floor, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, devastating impacts of climate variability are already being observed in Africa through increased wildfires, shrinking rivers, reduced crop yields, increased water and vector-borne diseases, and other forms. In coming decades, these climatic changes are predicted to impact human and state security via increased resource conflict, radicalization, economic crises, and humanitarian disasters. These threats all have global implications and require urgent rethinking of African and international security strategy. To this end, the Wilson Center’s Africa Program and Environmental Change and Security Program, in partnership with the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, will host a dialogue aiming to more effectively link science-based analysis of climate variability with security planning.

This dialogue will build on the findings of the Water, Energy and Security in Africa Conference at the Stellenbosch Institute for Advanced Study, which explored innovative and sustainable strategies for minimizing negative impacts of climate variability on human security across Africa, with specific focus on case studies from Lake Chad, Lake Victoria, and the Nile and Congo River basins. The dialogue will entail a moderated discussion with African water security experts and policymakers aiming to identify lessons learned from mitigation and adaptation interventions to date as well as strategies for future collaboration.

RSVP here.

The Ukraine Crisis and Russia’s Place in the International Order
Date: August 20, 2:00pm
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

For over two decades, the United States and Europe have been trying to integrate Russia into the international order. This post-Cold War strategy yielded some success, but has now come crashing down over following Russia’s aggressive turn and the ensuing crisis over Ukraine. The United States is seeking to isolate President Putin while Russia is trying to distance itself from what it sees as a Western-dominated order. President Obama says this is not the beginning of a new Cold War, but a new era seems all but inevitable, with potentially severe consequences for the global economy, counter-terrorism, the non-proliferation regime and climate change.

On August 20, 2014, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host a discussion on what Russia’s foreign policy turn means for the international order and for U.S. foreign policy. Thomas Wright, fellow with the Project on International Order and Strategy (IOS), will moderate a conversation with Brookings President Strobe Talbott, Senior Fellow Clifford Gaddy of Brookings’ Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) and Susan Glasser, editor at Politico Magazine.

Following the discussion, the panelists will take questions from the audience. Register here.

Scientific Statecraft: What is it, who does it, and why it’s important
Date: August 20, 4:30pm
Location: Institute of World Politics, 1521 16^th Street NW, Washington DC 20036

Prof. Billauer will give an overview of all the areas in which science can impact policy, and discuss the work of several scientists who left their mark on world policy.

Barbara Billauer, Research Professor of Scientific Statecraft at The Institute of World Politics, is also the founder of the Foundation for Law and Science Centers (FLASC Inc.), a non-profit educational organization dedicated to teaching judges and policy-makers the principles of the scientific method, where she designed a patent-pending method of teaching science to lay-decision makers. Formerly an active trial lawyer who handled complex medical malpractice, pharmaceutical, toxic tort, and environmental cases, she currently serves on a UNESCO Bioethics Expert Advisory Committee where she is working on a judicial education project.

Prof. Billauer is a graduate of Cornell University (Hons.) and holds a J.D. degree from Hofstra University, a Master’s Degree in Occupational Health and Safety from New York University, has done advanced work in Bioethics, and holds a certificate in Risk Management Sciences from John Hopkins University where she completed doctoral studies in public health. She has served on numerous Boards, has published extensively and lectured nationally on various science-policy issues including national security. She has also written the entry on Benjamin Franklin for the John Wiley Encyclopedia of Political Thought, forthcoming this October.

Register here.