Pandora Report 8.9.15

My apologies for lack of update last weekend…but that means a SUPER UPDATE this weekend! This week marked the 70th anniversary of atomic bombs being dropped in Japan. Rather than find an insufficient story that attempted to address the gravity of that event, we’re focusing on a successful Ebola vaccine trial, UN consensus on Syrian chemical weapons, and airplane bathrooms (because I can’t help myself when I see a story like that!) We’ve also got stories you may have missed.

Have a great week!

Vaccine Success Holds Hope for End to Deadly Scourge of Ebola

Some great news from West Africa: an Ebola vaccine trial in Guinea has returned results that are 100% effective. 4,000 people who had been in close contact with a confirmed Ebola case showed complete protection after ten days. A ring vaccination strategy—where those who have close contact with an infected person—was used, and after success was demonstrated, the vaccine is now being extended to 13-17 year olds, and possibly 6-12 year old children.

Reuters—“The success of the Guinea trial is a big relief for researchers, many of whom feared a sharp decline in cases this year would scupper their hopes of proving a vaccine could work. Another major trial in Liberia, which had aimed to recruit some 28,000 subjects, had to stop enrolling after only reaching its mid-stage target of 1,500 participants. Plans for testing in Sierra Leone were also scaled back. That left the study in Guinea, where Ebola is still infecting new victims, as the only real hope for demonstrating the efficacy of a vaccine.”

U.N. Approves Resolution on Syria Chemical Weapons

The UN Security Council unanimously—yes, even Russia—adopted a resolution aimed at identifying those responsible for the use of chemical weapons in Syria over the past two years. The resolution established an investigative body that would assign blame for the attacks “so that the perpetrators can be brought to justice.”

Salt Lake Tribune—“‘Pointing a finger matters,” U.S. Ambassador Samantha Power told the council. “This sends a clear and powerful message to all those involved in chemical weapons attacks in Syria that the [new investigative body] will identify you if you gas people.” But she added that prosecuting perpetrators will take time because there is still no tribunal to investigate alleged crimes during the war in Syria, which has killed at least 250,000 people since it began in March 2011, according to the U.N.”

Airplane Toilets Can Help Researchers Find Disease Outbreaks

A recent study in Scientific Reports finds that researchers can tell what continent you’re from and give early indication of disease outbreaks, all from the poop left in airplanes. (I think this is the first time I’ve been able to say “poop” here on the blog.) The researchers gathered samples from 18 airplanes that departed from nine cities and landed in Copenhagen and were able to identify continental trends. Microbes from Southeast Asia had higher incidence of antibiotic resistance; food transmitted microbes were also more frequent in the Southeast Asian samples; and C. diff was much more common in the North American samples.

Popular Science—“These findings led the researchers to believe that they could start to create a typical microbiome for each continent. And any big shifts that happen in their makeup—say, the concentration of C. diff rises dramatically in samples from Southeast Asia—could indicate a growing public health issue. If it’s caught early enough, public health officials could take preventative action.”

Stories You May Have Missed

 

Image Credit: CDC Global

LAST DAY: SUMMER COURSE EARLY REGISTRATION

The early registration discount for the professional education summer course Pandemics, Bioterrorism, and International Security (July 22-24 in Arlington, VA) expires today, May 15, 2015. 


This three-day, non-credit course introduces participants to the challenges facing the world at the intersection of public health, the life sciences, and national security. The course is designed for professionals and academics in public health, life sciences, industry, international affairs, emergency management, law enforcement, and national security who have responsibilities for preventing, preparing for, or responding to pandemics or bioterrorism. The course faculty are internationally recognized experts who have been extensively involved with research and policymaking on public health, biodefense and national security issues.

Sign up by May 15 for a discounted registration rate. Discounts are also available for GMU alum and groups of three or more from the same organization. For more information and to register, visit ocpe.gmu.edu/PBIS.htm

Looking Clearly at Right-Wing Terrorism

Charles P. Blair is a Washington, D.C.-based university instructor, researcher, writer, and thinker specializing in terrorism and the history, technical underpinnings, and potential futures of Weapons of Mass Destruction. He is the director for two courses in the Summer Program in International Security: 21st Century Terrorism: Emerging Trends and Evolving Tactics which runs July 14-16 and Terrorism Analysis: Quantitative and Qualitative Research Methodologies and Tools which runs July 17-18.

Register before June 15 and save $200-$300 on course registration for the GMU Summer Program in International Security!


By Charles P. Blair

Five years ago the US Department of Homeland Security’s Homeland Environment Threat Analysis Division released an assessment of US far-right extremism. Initially intended for law enforcement and intelligence agencies only, the report—“Rightwing Extremism: Current Economic and Political Climate Fueling Resurgence in Radicalization and Recruitment”—was almost immediately leaked. The report warned that small cells practicing “leaderless resistance” and “white supremacist lone wolves [posed] the most significant domestic terrorist threat.” Significantly, it highlighted the likelihood of expanded attempts by far-right extremists “to recruit and radicalize returning veterans in order to boost their violent capabilities.” Overall, the report warned of trends similar to “the 1990s when rightwing extremism experienced a resurgence.” That far-right extremist rally reached a violent crescendo with the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah federal building in Oklahoma City on April 19, 1995.

Reflecting on the past five years, a leading far-right extremism expert I recently interviewed described the homeland security report as “prophetic.” Mark Pitcavage, the Anti-Defamation League’s director of investigative research, explained that most of the warnings in the 2009 report have become realities. Yet at the time of its release, the document was derided by many inside and outside of government as “ridiculous [and] deeply offensive,” an “inconceivable” assault on US veterans, and, in general, “a piece of crap.” …

Meet Your 2014 Summer Program Faculty: Charles Blair

In preparation for the GMU Summer Program in International Security, this week we will highlight the course directors. EARLY BIRD REGISTRATION HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO JUNE 15! Register by June 15 to save $300 on a three-day course and $200 on a two-day course. Use the links below for more details including registration.  Questions? Comment to this post or email spis@gmu.edu.


 

Headshot_BlairCharles P. Blair is a Washington, D.C.-based university instructor, researcher, writer, and thinker specializing in terrorism and the history, technical underpinnings, and potential futures of Weapons of Mass Destruction. He is the director for two courses in the Summer Program in International Security: 21st Century Terrorism: Emerging Trends and Evolving Tactics which runs July 14-16 and Terrorism Analysis: Quantitative and Qualitative Research Methodologies and Tools which runs July 17-18.

Since visiting Moscow as a student in 1985, Blair has worked on issues relating to globalization and the diffusion and diversification of WMD in the context of the rise of mass casualty terrorism incidents. He teaches graduate-level classes on terrorism and the technology of WMD at Johns Hopkins University and George Mason University and is a columnist for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Recent works include: “Terrorist Nuclear Command and Control,” which was completed under the auspices of the Department of Homeland Security; a two-year DHS-backed study which investigated the U.S. extreme right-wing and radiological and nuclear terrorism; “Target Sochi: The threat from the Caucasus Emirate,”; and  “Barely Lethal: Terrorists and Ricin.”

Mr. Blair is a Senior Fellow on State and Non-State Threats at the Federation of American Scientists. Before joining FAS, he has worked at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, the National Nuclear Security Administration, the Anti-Defamation League, and the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies.

Click here to register for 21st Century Terrorism: Emerging Trends and Evolving Tactics.

Click here to register for Terrorism Analysis: Quantitative and Qualitative Research Methodologies and Tools

Meet Your 2014 Summer Program Faculty: Gregory Koblentz

In preparation for the GMU Summer Program in International Security, this week we will highlight the course directors. EARLY BIRD REGISTRATION HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO JUNE 15! Register by June 15 to save $300 on a three-day course and $200 on a two-day course. Use the links below for more details including registration.  Questions? Comment to this post or email spis@gmu.edu.


Koblentz

Dr. Greg Koblentz, Associate Professor of Government and International Affairs and Deputy Director of the Biodefense Program at George Mason University, is the course director for this summer’s short course: Pandemics, Bioterrorism, and International Security. The course will run July 21-23.

Dr. Koblentz’s research and teaching focus on international security, biosecurity, and weapons of mass destruction. His recent publications include “Biosecurity reconsidered: Calibrating biological threats and responses.” and “The threat of pandemic influenza: why today is not 1918.” His book, Living Weapons: Biological Warfare and International Security, remains one of the most influential publications in the field of biodefense since its publication in 2009. In fact, we often tell prospective students to read his book for a “one book version” of our Biodefense Master’s program. He is at work now on a book on nuclear proliferation.

Dr. Koblentz is also a Research Affiliate with the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a member of the Scientist Working Group on Chemical and Biological Weapons at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation in Washington, DC. He received his PhD in political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, his Master in Public Policy from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, and his Bachelor of Arts from Brown University.

Click here to register for Pandemics, Bioterrorism, and International Security.

Meet Your 2014 Summer Program Faculty: Sonia ben Ouagrham-Gormley

In preparation for the GMU Summer Program in International Security, this week we will highlight the course directors. EARLY BIRD REGISTRATION HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO JUNE 15! Register by June 15 to save $300 on a three-day course and $200 on a two-day course.. Use the links below for more details including registration.  Questions? Comment to this post or email spis@gmu.edu.


 

GormleyDr. Sonia ben Ouagrham-Gormley, Associate Professor of Government and International Affairs and member of the Biodefense faculty at George Mason University, is the director for this summer’s WMD Export Controls course in the Summer Program in International Security. This course will run July 10-11 and aims to increase participants’ awareness and understanding of WMD proliferation, export controls and trafficking of related materials.

Dr. Ouagrham-Gormley’s research and teaching focuses on WMD and proliferation issues. Her recent publications include “The social context shaping bioweapons (non) proliferation,” “An Unrealized Nexus? WMD-Related Trafficking, Terrorism and Organized Crime in the Former Soviet Union,” and “Banking on Nonproliferation: Improving the Implementation of Financial Sanctions.”  Her forthcoming book from Cornell University Press, Barriers to Bioweapons, extends on her article by the same name and provides the most detailed examination to date of how and why biological weapons programs succeed or fail.

Prior to joining George Mason, Dr. Ouagrham-Gormley served 10 years as a Senior Research Associate at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), and Editor-in-Chief of the International Export Control Observer, a monthly newsletter devoted to the analysis of WMD export control issues in the world. Dr. Ouagrham-Gormley was also an adjunct professor at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, where she taught a course on WMD in the former Soviet Union (FSU). She received her Ph.D. in Economics of Development at the Advanced School of Social Sciences in Paris, France.

Click here to register for WMD Export Controls.

Meet Your 2014 Summer Program Faculty: Alexander Garza

In preparation for the GMU Summer Program in International Security, this week we will highlight the course directors. EARLY BIRD REGISTRATION HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO JUNE 15! Register by June 15 to save $300 on a three-day course and $200 on a two-day course. Use the links below for more details including registration.  Questions? Comment to this post or email spis@gmu.edu.


Alexander Garza, MD, MPH, FACEP

Dr. Alexander Garza, Associate Dean for Public Health Practice and Associate Professor of Epidemiology at St. Louis University in the College for Public Health and Social Justice, is the director for this summer’s Biosurveillance: National and International Levels course in the Summer Program in International Security. This course will run July 24-25.

Dr. Garza is a fellow in the American College of Emergency Physicians and a member of the American Public Health Association. He is a Senior Editor for the Oxford Handbook in Disaster Medicine and has authored numerous chapters in medical texts and published multiple articles and peer-reviewed publications.

Dr. Garza served as Assistant Secretary for Health Affairs and the Chief Medical Officer of the Department of Homeland Security from 2009-2013 and prior to that was a practicing physician and medical educator—serving as the Director of Military Programs at the ER One Institue at Washington Hospital Center, the Associate Medical Director of Emergency Medical Services for the State of New Mexico, and the Director of Emergency Medical Services The Kansas City, MO Health Department. He has served as a professor at Georgetown University, the University of New Mexico and the University of Missouri-Kansas City.

Dr. Garza served in the U.S. Army Reserve and was a battalion surgeon and public health team chief during Operation Flintlock in Dakar, Senegal. He also served as a public health team chief during Operation Iraqi Freedom and as a special investigator and medical expert for Major General Raymond Odierno. He holds a medical degree from the University of Missouri – Columbia School of Medicine, a Master of Public Health from the Saint Louis University School of Public Health and a Bachelor of Science in biology from the University of Missouri – Kansas City.

Click here to register for Biosurveillance: National and International Levels.

Meet Your 2014 Summer Program Faculty: Charles Ferguson

In preparation for the GMU Summer Program in International Security, this week we will highlight the course directors. EARLY BIRD REGISTRATION HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO JUNE 15! Register by June 15 to save $300 on a three-day course and $200 on a two-day course. Use the links below for more details including registration.  Questions? Comment to this post or email spis@gmu.edu.


ferguson

Dr. Charles D. Ferguson, President of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), is the course director for this summer’s CBRN Weapons: Science & Policy in the Summer Program in International Security. This course will run July 7-9.

With more than twenty years’ experience in policy and national security, Dr. Ferguson has researched and written extensively on energy policy, nuclear nonproliferation, missile defense, and prevention of nuclear and radiological terrorism. His publications include 2011’s Nuclear Energy: What Everyone Needs to Know, The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism (with William Potter) in 2005, and the report Commercial Radioactive Sources: Surveying the Security Risks, which was the first in-depth, post-9/11 study of the “dirty bomb” threat. This report won the 2003 Robert S. Landauer Lecture Award from the Health Physics Society.

Dr. Ferguson has worked as the Philip D. Reed senior fellow for science and technology at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), consulted with Sandia National Laboratories and the National Nuclear Security Administration on improving the security of radioactive sources, and as a physical scientist in the Office of the Senior Coordinator for Nuclear Safety at the U.S. Department of State. He graduated with distinction from the United States Naval Academy, served in the U.S. Navy as a nuclear engineering officer, and earned a PhD in physics from Boston University. He has previously taught as an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and the Johns Hopkins University.

Click here to register for CBRN Weapons: Science & Policy.

Meet Your 2014 Summer Program Faculty: Alexander Garza

In preparation for the GMU Summer Program in International Security, this week we will highlight the course directors. Remember, EARLY BIRD REGISTRATION ENDS MAY 15! Register by May 15 to save $300 on a three-day course and $200 on a two-day course. Use the links below for more details including registration.  Questions? Comment to this post or email spis@gmu.edu.


Alexander Garza, MD, MPH, FACEP

Dr. Alexander Garza, Associate Dean for Public Health Practice and Associate Professor of Epidemiology at St. Louis University in the College for Public Health and Social Justice, is the director for this summer’s Biosurveillance: National and International Levels course in the Summer Program in International Security. This course will run July 24-25.

Dr. Garza is a fellow in the American College of Emergency Physicians and a member of the American Public Health Association. He is a Senior Editor for the Oxford Handbook in Disaster Medicine and has authored numerous chapters in medical texts and published multiple articles and peer-reviewed publications.

Dr. Garza served as Assistant Secretary for Health Affairs and the Chief Medical Officer of the Department of Homeland Security from 2009-2013 and prior to that was a practicing physician and medical educator—serving as the Director of Military Programs at the ER One Institue at Washington Hospital Center, the Associate Medical Director of Emergency Medical Services for the State of New Mexico, and the Director of Emergency Medical Services The Kansas City, MO Health Department. He has served as a professor at Georgetown University, the University of New Mexico and the University of Missouri-Kansas City.

Dr. Garza served in the U.S. Army Reserve and was a battalion surgeon and public health team chief during Operation Flintlock in Dakar, Senegal. He also served as a public health team chief during Operation Iraqi Freedom and as a special investigator and medical expert for Major General Raymond Odierno. He holds a medical degree from the University of Missouri – Columbia School of Medicine, a Master of Public Health from the Saint Louis University School of Public Health and a Bachelor of Science in biology from the University of Missouri – Kansas City.

Click here to register for Biosurveillance: National and International Levels.

Meet Your 2014 Summer Program Faculty: Sonia ben Ouagrham-Gormley

In preparation for the GMU Summer Program in International Security, this week we will highlight the course directors. Remember, EARLY BIRD REGISTRATION ENDS MAY 15! Register by May 15 to save $300 on a three-day course and $200 on a two-day course. Use the links below for more details including registration.  Questions? Comment to this post or email spis@gmu.edu.


 

GormleyDr. Sonia ben Ouagrham-Gormley, Associate Professor of Government and International Affairs and member of the Biodefense faculty at George Mason University, is the director for this summer’s WMD Export Controls course in the Summer Program in International Security. This course will run July 10-11 and aims to increase participants’ awareness and understanding of WMD proliferation, export controls and trafficking of related materials.

Dr. Ouagrham-Gormley’s research and teaching focuses on WMD and proliferation issues. Her recent publications include “The social context shaping bioweapons (non) proliferation,” “An Unrealized Nexus? WMD-Related Trafficking, Terrorism and Organized Crime in the Former Soviet Union,” and “Banking on Nonproliferation: Improving the Implementation of Financial Sanctions.”  Her forthcoming book from Cornell University Press, Barriers to Bioweapons, extends on her article by the same name and provides the most detailed examination to date of how and why biological weapons programs succeed or fail.

Prior to joining George Mason, Dr. Ouagrham-Gormley served 10 years as a Senior Research Associate at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), and Editor-in-Chief of the International Export Control Observer, a monthly newsletter devoted to the analysis of WMD export control issues in the world. Dr. Ouagrham-Gormley was also an adjunct professor at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, where she taught a course on WMD in the former Soviet Union (FSU). She received her Ph.D. in Economics of Development at the Advanced School of Social Sciences in Paris, France.

Click here to register for WMD Export Controls.