Aerosolized Fungal Infection from Bats

By Jonathon Marioneaux

As promised, we will be continue our coverage of bats and their diseases this week.  Over the last several postings we have covered different diseases bats can carry and their place in folklore.  In many horror stories and movies the main antagonist resides in a cave which makes you wonder, what else is in that cave? One of the main diseases that can be contracted in caves is histoplasmosis, which as it turns out is a relatively common disease.  Researchers from Heliopolis Hospital in Brazil documented a case of oral manifestation in a patient in 2013 that provided clinical details to the history and progression of the disease.

Histoplasmosis is a fungal infection caused by Histoplasma capsulatum and has two variants—capsulatum and duboisii. The fungus is found in caves worldwide, however most clinical cases occur on the American continent.  H. capsulatum requires moderate temperatures and constant humidity to grow and does best in bird or bat guano.  The fungus is found in its hyphae form primarily in caves and reverts to its yeast form in human lungs due to the higher temperature.  The fungus is primarily transferred to humans in its aerosolized form during cave diving, giving it the nickname “Caver’s disease” and “Spelunker’s disease.” However, it can also be transferred any time soil aerosolizes, for example, during digging.

The disease has a relatively low mortality rate in immunocompetent people and may go undetected as mild flu symptoms. Yet in people with compromised immune systems, such as AIDS patients, it can reach mortality rates as high as 80% and can be a tool for AIDS diagnosis.  In some cases the disease can become chronic in the presence of underlying disease and become severe to life threatening.  Diagnosis of H. capsulatum can be difficult due to its mimicking of other diseases, such as tuberculosis, and limitations of diagnostic exams.  The gold standard for diagnosis is culturing of the fungi on dextrose slats which will show white or brown filamentous colonies.

The Brazil patient was initially admitted on complaints of oral lesions and shortness of breath to the Heliopolis hospital.  The initial diagnosis was tuberculosis, however radiography diffuse infiltrate of both lungs and negative acid-fast staining discounted this.  Subsequent tests showed CD4/CD8 lymphocyte count was normal, discounting HIV, and culture tests indicated fungi presence.  A biopsy of lung tissue showed Langhas-type multinucleated giant cells with variable amounts of lymphocytes consistent with histoplasmosis. The patient was treated with Itraconazol for six months and showed marked improvement.

The above example explains why the conversation between patient-doctor and doctor-doctor is very important.  Without knowledge of the patient’s history and the referral by the dentist it is possible that a positive diagnosis could never have been made. This is especially true with organisms which are hard to grow or mimic symptoms of other disease.  In addition, knowing the immunocompetent state of a patient can give clues to what type of pathogen might be present.

So, when going spelunking or anywhere near animal feces wear a mask or other protective covering to prevent infection from various diseases including H. cacsulatum. Bats are our friends and serve a much needed role in pollenating plants and keeping insects under control during the warm parts of the year.  Let’s not forget their contributions when discussing their role in disease transmission and the Hollywood spin put on them for Halloween. It is always advisable to take caution when handling bats of any species or geographic location to prevent the spread of numerous viral, bacterial, and fungal agents that they carry.

With Halloween upon us, this concludes our series on bats and their diseases. Next week, we will pick up coverage of birds (if you have a specific bird you would like me to cover send me an email) to get into the Thanksgiving spirit.

As always remember to wave at the next bat and thank them for their invaluable service to our ecosystem!

Image of the Week: Division of Select Agents & Toxins

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The Islamic State: Thoughts from the Top Think Tanks

By Erik Goepner

Annually, the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP) at the University of Pennsylvania publishes a ranking of the world’s think tanks.  Regarding the Islamic State and the coalition’s response, perspectives from senior researchers and fellows at the four top-rated defense & national security think tanks follow (i.e., the Center for Strategic and International Studies, RAND, International Institute for Strategic Studies, and the Brookings Institution).  The insights come from Jon Alterman, Ben Connable, Ben Barry, and Kenneth Pollack, respectively.

Overall Strategy:

  • Political settlement and reconciliation is critical (CSIS, RAND, IISS & Brookings)
    • Force collapse of IS from within (CSIS)
    • “Resurrect” power sharing arrangement fashioned by the U.S. during the surge and “recreate” a unified Iraqi government (Brookings)
  • Build an effective coalition (CSIS, IISS)
    • This is a complex endeavor: U.S., et al, want to focus on Iraq first, while the UK and others recommend starting with Syria; several Arab partners will only conduct kinetic operations in Syria; and Turkey is potentially more concerned with the Kurds than IS
    • Iraqi government needs to effectively balance outreach to Sunnis, sustaining military support from Iran, and engagement with the U.S. (IISS)
    • Those with the most to offer are the least willing to participate (i.e., Sunni states and Turkey) (Brookings)
  • Empower moderate forces (Brookings)
  • S. will “have to lead an effort of nation-building to heal the wounds of the [Syrian] civil war. It is unavoidable.” (Brookings)
  • President Obama is on the right track, not just to defeat ISIS but also to address the “wider circumstances” of Iraq and Syria (Brookings)
  • Too militarily focused (CSIS)
  • Two somewhat different approaches are needed to address the two different civil wars (Brookings)
  • Delegitimize IS’ ideology and message (CSIS)
    • IS’ information operations are quite successful, it is unclear whether Iraq and/or the coalition will effectively counter (IISS)

Political Component:

  • Place main emphasis here (RAND, IISS)
  • Sunni reconciliation in Iraq is a must (RAND, IISS, and Brookings)
    • Sunnis are primarily nationalist and, therefore, anti-Iranian, not necessarily anti-Shia (RAND)
    • Most Iraqi Sunnis “reject IS methods and philosophy” (RAND)
  • New Iraqi Prime Minister al-Abadi should enact all grievance resolutions available to him in one fell swoop (RAND)
  • Divisions within the Sunni polity are problematic (RAND, IISS)
    • Some Sunni leaders have been marginalized for having tried to work with unity government, perceived as having failed
    • Difficult to find one or a handful of Sunni leaders to be the face of reconciliation efforts (RAND)

Military Component:

  • Airstrikes are insufficient (RAND)
  • Build a new army in Syria to oppose the Assad regime (Brookings)
  • Iraq’s recent tactical successes resulted, in part, because of Shiite and Kurdish militia participation (CSIS)
    • But, inclusion of Shiite militias may be used by IS to kindle Sunni-Shia civil war (IISS)
  • IS has high morale and decent fighting prowess (RAND)

Week in DC: Events

October 27, 2014

Ebola: U.S. Domestic and Foreign Policy Options
Date: October 27, 12:00pm
Location: Heritage Foundation, 214 Massachusetts Ave, NE, Lehrman Auditorium, Washington DC

Months after the outbreak of the Ebola virus in West Africa, the news of two American nurses becoming infected has sparked fear amongst the general U.S. population. With Ebola victims now in the United States, concerns are growing over the ability of the administration, Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and hospitals to control the spread of disease.

Join us for a discussion of the very real risks of the Ebola virus, but without the fear brought on by speculation and hype. Through clear communication of the nature of the threat and what policy options are available in the U.S. and in West Africa, the U.S. can make clear, rational decisions as to how to best deal with the current situation.

RSVP here to attend in person or watch online here.

Modern War in Theory and Practice: A Discussion with Dr. John Nagl on his new book Knife Fights
Date: October 27, 1:15pm
Location: New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW, Suite 400, Washington DC

Knife Fights: A Memoir of Modern War in Theory and Practice by Dr. John Nagl, a retired Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army and a former president of the Center for a New American Security, is a profound education in 21st Century warfare – its theory, its practice, and the often-tortured relationship between the two.

As an army tank commander in the first Gulf War, fresh out of West Point and Oxford, Dr. Nagl could already see that America’s military superiority meant that the age of conventional combat was nearing an end. He was an early convert to the view that America’s greatest future threats would come from asymmetric warfare – guerrillas, terrorists, and insurgents – and wrote Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife, a book that eventually became the bible of the counterinsurgency movement. Nagl argued it was necessary for the U.S. Army to understand the nature of the insurgency, but also to be more flexible in its response, adjusting its strategy to properly deal with the threat.

While Dr. Nagl worked with Gen. David Petraeus on rewriting core army doctrine in the middle of two wars, helping their new ideas win acceptance in one of the planet’s most conservative bureaucracies, he has not been blind to the cost or consequences of counterinsurgency, noting that in war, there are only bad choices; the question is really which ones are better and which ones are worse.

The New America Foundation is pleased to welcome Dr. Nagl for a discussion about his book, his work on the United States’ counterinsurgency efforts, and the revolution in modern warfare that he helped lead.

RSVP here to attend in person or watch online.

U.S.-Civil Military Relations After 9/11
Date: October 27, 1:30pm
Location: Alexander Hamilton Society-George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, East 201, Fairfax VA

The George Mason University chapter of the Alexander Hamilton Society will host Mackubin Thomas Owens for a discussion on U.S.-Civil Military Relations After 9/11. No registration is required. Refreshments will be served.

Mackubin Thomas Owens recently retired as professor of national-security affairs at the Naval War College. He is the editor of Orbis and a contributing editor to the National Review Online.

Previously, Dr. Owens served as the National Security Adviser to Senator Bob Kasten (R-WI) and Director of Legislative Affairs for the Nuclear Weapons Programs of the Department of Energy during the Reagan administration.

He is the author of US Civil-Military Relations After 9/11: Renegotiating the Civil-Military Bargain.

The New Threat in Town: Iraq, ISIS, and Managing the Crisis
Date: October 27, 6:30pm
Location: AU School of International Service, 4400 Massachusetts Ave NW, Mary Gordon Center, Butler Board Room, Washington DC

A panel discussion on the current security situation in Iraq regarding ISIS, the implications it has on the regional security of the Middle East, and how the United States can engage with the region in order to mitigate the situation from spiraling out of control. Panel speakers will include Dr. Tricia Bacon, Ambassador James F. Jeffrey from the Washington Institute, and Dr. Paul Salem from the Middle East Institute.

October 28, 2014               

Islamophobia, Extremism, and the Domestic War on Terror: A Discussion with Arun Kundani on his new book The Muslims are Coming!
Date: October 28, 12:15pm
Location: New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW, Suite 400, Washington DC

In The Muslims Are Coming!: Islamophobia, Extremism, and the Domestic War on Terror, Arun Kundnani notes that the new front in the War on Terror is the homegrown enemy, domestic terrorists who have become the focus of sprawling counterterrorism structures in the United States and across Europe. Domestic surveillance by police forces and government agencies has mushroomed— at least 100,000 Muslims in America have been secretly under scrutiny. In Britain, police officers compiled a secret suspect list of more than 8,000 al-Qaeda “sympathizers,” and almost 300 children aged fifteen and younger were among the potential extremists investigated.

While the revelations by former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden have caused some to question the rise, even the legality, of these national surveillance states, Western governments continue to focus on the threats posed by homegrown extremists, particularly as the Islamic State attracts foreign fighters from around the world

Based on several years of research and reportage, in locations as disparate as Texas, New York, and Yorkshire, and written in engrossing, precise prose, Kundnani’s The Muslims Are Coming! is the first comprehensive critique of Western counter-radicalization strategies. He notes that the new policies and policing campaigns have been backed by an industry of freshly-minted experts and liberal commentators, and looks at the way these debates have been transformed by the embrace of a narrowly-configured and ill-conceived anti-extremism stance.

The New America Foundation is pleased to welcome Mr. Kundnani for a discussion about his book, his findings, and the impact the War on Terror has had on its targets.

Register here to attend in person or watch live online.

The Future Army: Win in a Complex World
Date: October 28, 6:30pm
Location: World Affairs Council, 1900 K Street NW, 2nd Floor, Washington DC

Today, the importance of national security rests heavily on the minds of many Americans. With multiple mounting crises around the world, it is often difficult to understand America’s role in foreign disputes and the necessary action our military must take to remain a mediating force in foreign lands.

General David G. Perkins is the Commanding General in the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, who has experience in Europe, the United States, and the Middle East that affords him a distinct and experienced voice when speaking about the Army and the future of American security.

Join the World Affairs Council – Washington, DC in our Distinguished Speaker Series, as we host General David G. Perkins, as he speaks about ”The Future Army: Win in a Complex World.”

Register here.

October 29, 2014

Impressions from Putin’s 2014 Valdai Conference
Date: October 29, 12:00pm
Location: Georgetown University, McGhee Library, Room 301, 3700 O Street NW, Washington DC

Impressions From Putin’s 2014 Valdai Conference
CERES Director Dr. Angela Stent and IISS Senior Fellow Samuel Charap will report on their experience at the Valdai Discussion Club meeting. The Valdai Discussion Club is a global forum for the world’s leading experts on Russia to engage in a sustained dialogue about the country’s political, economic, social and cultural development. Since 2004, the Club has gathered annually in Russia and has regularly met with the leadership of the Russian Federation (including Vladimir Putin), as well as Russian business leaders, media, academics, and political groups.

Register here.

Ukraine Update: Elections, Conflict, and the Future of the EU’s Eastern Partnership
Date: October 29, 2:00pm
Location: The Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

In 2009, the European Union established its Eastern Partnership to advance political association and economic integration with six neighboring nations to its east. However, in November 2013, Ukrainian President Yanukovych refused to sign an association agreement with the EU, triggering mass protests in Ukraine that ultimately led to his departure and accusations that the EU “sleepwalked” into a conflict in Ukraine. Although the EU long asserted that the framework was never directed against Russia, the agreement with Ukraine was perceived in Moscow as a step too far. In the wake of the ongoing crisis between Ukraine and Russia, some are questioning whether the EU’s Eastern Partnership should be fundamentally altered—and, if so, how?

Against the backdrop of simmering conflict in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian people will go to the polls on October 26 to elect a new parliament. The new parliament members will then have to form a majority coalition and begin to tackle the pressing challenges facing the country. The herculean tasks include not just the violent conflict in the east and the troubled relationship with Russia, but needed economic and political reforms as well as measures to curb corruption. Questions remain about Ukrainian public expectations and potential tensions in the immediate aftermath of the vote.

On October 29, the Center on the U.S. and Europe at Brookings and the Heinrich Böll Foundation will host a panel discussion assessing next steps for Ukraine and the EU’s Eastern Partnership. The first panel will explore the Ukrainian election and what it means for politics within Ukraine, the Ukrainian economy, and Ukraine’s relations with Russia and the West. The second panel will focus on international perspectives on the EU’s Eastern Partnership and the EU’s role in supporting Ukraine in this time of turmoil.

RSVP here.

October 30, 2014

Is Democracy Possible in Russia?
Date: October 30, 9:30am
Location: National Endowment for Democracy, 1025 F Street NW, Suite 800, Washington DC

Vladimir Putin returned to the Russian presidency in 2012, facing mass opposition protests and weak economic growth. His response was a sharp turn toward authoritarianism, a trend that began with criminal charges against dozens of protesters on Bolotnaya Square and has accelerated with Russia’s armed intervention in Ukraine. Political repression and anti-Western propaganda have reached levels previously unseen in post-Soviet Russia, with political opposition and participation and most independent media eliminated. At the same time, economic sanctions have pushed an already stagnant economy toward recession.

These developments have created the need to reconfigure the sources of the Putin regime’s legitimacy. Whereas the implicit accord of Putin’s first two terms was to offer Russia’s citizens stable economic growth in exchange for their political disengagement; in his third term Putin seeks to compensate for declining standards of living with an artificial vision of Russia reborn as a great power.

In the short term, this strategy appears successful. Putin’s approval ratings have been at record highs for several months. However, an in-depth examination of Russia’s social, political, and economic trends suggests that the current political strategy may not be sustainable. Panelists Lilia Shevtsova, Leon Aron and Denis Volkov will discuss the factors that will shape political developments in Russia and the opportunities those developments might provide for reform. Leonid Gozman will provide comments.

RSVP here.

Brown Bag—Liberia: Challenges to Managing the Ebola Outbreak
Date: October 30, 12:30pm
Location: GMU School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, 4400 University Drive, Metropolitan Building, Conference Room 5183, Fairfax, VA

Join Professor Agnieszka Paczynska and S-CAR PhD student Samuel Wai Johnson for a brown bag on Liberia and the challenges faced on both a state and local level in managing the Ebola outbreak.

Rules of Engagement—Pathogen Response to the Environment of Invasive Infection
Date: October 30, 12:30pm
Location: Georgetown University, Regents Hall 239, 3700 O Street NW, Washington DC

This open to the public seminar given by Dr. Aaron Mitchell of Carnegie Mellon University, will discuss pathogen response to the environment of invasive infection.

A Nuclear Deal with Iran? Weighing the Possibilities
Date: October 30, 2:00pm
Location: American Enterprise Institute, 1150 17th Street NW, 12th Floor, Washington DC

As global crises unfold, President Barack Obama appears to see one silver lining in the clouds on the foreign policy horizon: a nuclear deal with Iran. However, it appears increasingly likely that the November 24 deadline will come and go without a comprehensive agreement, and the stakes could not be higher. A bad deal that leaves too much of Tehran’s nuclear capabilities intact or enables Iran to develop nuclear weapons in the months or years to come could set off a nuclear arms race across the Middle East. Alternatively, a good deal could solve a problem at the heart of much of the turmoil in the region.

Are the United States and European powers prepared to renew sanctions if Iran refuses to comply with demands from the international community and International Atomic Energy Agency? Will the Iranians refuse to concede on any of their own red lines? Will the Obama administration sidestep Congress to achieve a nuclear deal? Please join us at AEI for a timely discussion just a few weeks ahead of the November deadline.

RSVP here.

Pandora Report 10.26.14

This late weekend Pandora Report covers antibiotics in fish, ISIS and chemical weapons, the UN and Cholera, and, of course, an Ebola update. Don’t forget to get your flu shot, and remember to protect yourself by washing your hands! Have a great week!

There Are Antibiotics in Your Fish

A study in the Journal of Hazardous Materials has found antibiotics present in both farmed and wild fish, including those labeled as ‘antibiotic free’. The good news for the food producers is that all traces of the drugs were within the legal limit for food. The bad news is twofold; one, for there to be any traces after processing and freezing means that at one point, there was a lot more antibiotics, and two, levels of antibiotics in the food we eat contributes to growing antibiotic resistance in humans.

Time—“Antibiotics are used in fish largely to treat and prevent disease, not to promote growth… They’re dispersed into the water in fish farms and are sometimes injected into fish directly. And once they get into the fish, they generally stay there, even though their concentration diminishes over time.”

Islamic State Accused of Using Chemical Weapons

Iraqi officials claim that ISIS fighters have used chemical weapons—chlorine bombs—during clashes last month in Duluiya and Balad, towns north of Baghdad. Approximately 40 troops were affected and were then treated at a hospital where they recovered quickly. Iraqi forces claim that two other chlorine gas attacks have taken place over recent months, as well.

Sky News—“‘These allegations are extremely serious and we are seeking additional information in order to be able to determine whether or not we can confirm it,’ John Kerry told reporters. ‘The use of any chemical weapons is an abhorrent act, it’s against international law, and these recent allegations underscore the importance of the work that we are currently engaged in.’”

U.S. Judge Considers Whether UN Can Be Sued

In 2010 an earthquake ravaged the island nation of Haiti. Shortly after United Nations peacekeepers arrived, the nation experienced one of the worst cholera epidemics in history. Last week, a lawyer representing the Institute for Justice and Democracy in Haiti presented an argument that the UN should be held responsible for the outbreak which led to the deaths of over 8,500 people. Lawyers from the U.S. government are representing the UN in this case. The judge will decide if the case can proceed to criminal trial.

China Central Television—“Evidence from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention later provided strong indication that UN peacekeepers were the source of the outbreak, but the UN has denied any links, and its own investigation into the cause was inconclusive.”

This Week in Ebola

Well, the number of Ebola cases this week reached over 10,000 with nearly 5,000 deaths including the first death in Mali. As the disease spreads within the U.S., Africa, and Europe, it might be a smart time to look at how SARS was stoppedChina is a good case study. After the diagnosis of an American health worker returned from West Africa, the states of New Jersey, New York and Illinois have moved to automatically quarantine health workers returning from the affected region. All this comes at a time when federal officials and the WHO say vaccine trials could begin in West Africa as early as January. Average Americans still have very little risk of catching Ebola, but that hasn’t stopped the culture of fear and concerns about state use of Ebola as a weapon. But don’t worry, National Geographic puts the Ebola epidemic in historical perspective. Still worried? You can blame Richard Preston.

Stories You May Have Missed

Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons

New Bat Flu Found

By Jonathon Marioneaux

Halloween is right around the corner, so we continue our coverage of one of the most notable creatures of the season: bats. Previously we covered vampire bats and their role in spreading rabies to humans and livestock in South America.  Considering how bats appear to be vectors for both Ebola and rabies this made left me wondering what other viruses bats carry.

Many animals carry some sort of virus that belong to the Orthomyxoviridae family which is broken into three classes A, B, and C.  Classes B and C primarily infect humans while class A infects a range of hosts including birds, mammals, and reptiles. However, no Orthomyxoviridae virus has been found in bats, or so we thought.  In October researchers from Maryland and Kanas discovered a new flu virus that can be transmitted between bats and in doing so discovered a new lineage of the Orthomyxoviridae family and a potential new pandemic flu.

Influenza is a negative sense RNA virus consisting of 7-8 segments allowing it to recombine during infection and create new combinations of RNA segments.  Multiple types of influenza can infect a host cell simultaneously allowing strains of flu from different hosts to recombine in novel ways.  This ability to be infected with different types of influenza viruses is why there are new outbreaks of the flu every year and why the virus has the potential to become a global pandemic if the correct reassortment happens.


Bats carry many diseases such as Coronaviruses, Filoviruses, and Henipaviruses, but as stated earlier, no Orthomyxoviridae have been previously found.  While trying to sequence genomes the researchers found influenza-like RNA sequences in tissue cultures.  However, when these sequences were introduced into cell cultures they did not replicate efficiently.  The researchers then synthetically altered the surface protein structure and re-infected cell and animal models.  The virus reproduced efficiently in the cell and mice models with high mortality among the mice; thus showing that the virus can reproduce in traditional flu hosts. The researchers indicated that the bat virus does not have the same surface proteins that influenza A and B contain.  This lack of ability to infect the same cells shows high cell specificity that results in a limitation of the cell types that influenza A and bat influenza can infect.  Finally, the genetic differences that are seen in the bat influenza virus indicate that they are a distant relative of the current influenza types, thus potentially making them a new branch of the Orthomyxoviridae family tree.

The difficulty in growing the bat viruses in traditional cells without modification indicates that the virus does not have the necessary surface proteins to enter cells.  However, after synthetic modification the bat virus was very lethal in host cells and animal models.  This indicates that the bat virus is only distantly related to the influenza A and B types that circulate currently.  Therefore, the risk of reassortment between flu viruses is small and there is a smaller risk of a global pandemic.

In conclusion,  bats harbor many viruses and make great Halloween decorations but they pose little risk for a global pandemic of zombie apocalyptic proportions and are great for the environment.  So, make sure you thank the next bat that you see and we will continue our coverage of our winged friends next week.

ISIS and Chemical Weapons

The Washington Post has reported that ISIS used an improvised chemical weapon containing chlorine to attack an Iraqi police patrol in Balad, north of Baghdad, in September, injuring 11 officers. Chlorine is readily available in Iraq given its widespread use for water treatment.

The good news is that ISIS’s use of chlorine indicates that it has not gained access to more toxic agents located at Muthanna, Iraq’s former chemical weapon production complex, which the group seized in June. That complex contains two bunkers with abandoned and degraded chemical agents and munitions that were sealed shut with concrete by UNSCOM almost twenty years ago. Breaching the bunkers to obtain the material inside would be extremely hazardous and would not likely yield readily usable agent or munitions given their age and storage conditions.

The bad news is that this attack is probably only the beginning. ISIS is the latest incarnation of the group Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) which has had a long-standing interest in chemical weapons. AQI conducted a string of attacks in 2006 and 2007 that combined chlorine gas tanks and improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Due to the poor design of these improvised chemical weapons, most of the casualties were caused by the explosive component of the bomb, not the chlorine. AQI stopped using chlorine-laced IEDs due to their perceived ineffectiveness and a concerted effort by US intelligence and military forces to break up the network that had been constructing the weapons. ISIS, like AQI, has demonstrated a willingness to engage in extreme levels of violence, such as beheading captured fighters and civilians and conducting mass casualty attacks. The use of chlorine or other chemicals by ISIS fits this pattern of escalating violence and violation of norms to maximize the shock value of their actions.

Given the large swath of Syrian and Iraqi territory that ISIS now controls, the inability of local forces to launch offensive operations against ISIS, and the unwillingness of the Obama Administration to deploy even small numbers of U.S. soldiers in a combat role in Iraq, ISIS will likely be able to continue carrying out such attacks if they desire. Hopefully they will not learn any lessons from AQI’s previous experiments with this form of chemical terrorism.

Biodefense Image of the Week: Select Agents & Toxins

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If you love infographics as much as I do (and I’m sure you do) you’ll appreciate this one created by Waka Waka. Forward and share with friends and colleagues, because remember, sharing is caring and knowledge is power!

The Islamic State: 5% of the Militarization Problem

By Erik Goepner

An estimated 1,000+ militant organizations currently operate in Iraq, Syria, or both. Comprising somewhere between 600,000 and 1 million fighters, each fights for its desired piece of the power pie. Professor Robert Bates of Harvard wrote that when states fail, “those with power employ it to extract resources from those without power. The latter flock to those who offer them security, albeit often for a price…Political predation from the top is thus accompanied by the militarization of civic society below.”* The “militarization of civic society” seems an apt description for Iraq and Syria, where IS and its ~30,000 fighters comprise just 5% of the overall armed presence.

The extent of militarization within both countries represents a substantially larger problem than IS alone. The 1,000+ armed groups, however large or small, each has a different perspective on what the future should look like, and each appears to agree with Mao that “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.”

Should IS be defeated, approximately 1,000 armed groups would remain. They include the Iraqi army, of which 48% of its brigades are assessed as too sectarian to be a credible force against IS. Syria’s security forces, the next largest group, have been condemned for their systematic attacks against the civilian population, with more than 190,000 now dead. The third largest group is likely the Kurdish Peshmerga, which the U.S. has begun arming. With somewhere between 80,000 and 200,000 fighters, they fight for the Kurdistan Regional Government located in northern Iraq. Their goals remain somewhat unclear, but appear to include increasing territorial gains in Iraq and, potentially, the establishment of their own nation-state. The next largest, the Islamic Front, is an umbrella group for multiple Islamist groups comprised of an estimated 50,000 fighters intent on establishing an Islamic state in Syria. Depending on which estimates are more accurate, the fifth largest armed group is either IS or the Free Syrian Army.

A sample of the remaining 1,000 or so armed groups follows:

Estimated Fighting Strength Name Description
10,000 Mahdi Army (aka Peace Brigades) Shiite; fighting IS, historically has received support from Iran
10,400 Islamic Army of Iraq Sunni Islamist, nationalist; more inclusive of others within the Iraqi jihadist movement than IS
10,000 Badr Organization Shiite; previously aligned with the ISCI
5,000 – 6,000 al-Nusra Front Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria
2,000 – 4,000 (“several thousand”) 1920s Revolution Brigades Sunni Islamist, nationalist; wants to install a state guided by Islamist principles in Iraq
1,500 – 15,000 People’s Protection Units (YPG) Kurdish; has been linked to Democratic Union Party (i.e., the dominant Kurdish party in Syria)
1,500 – 5,000 Jaysh Rijal al-Tariq al-Naqshabandi (JRTN) Sunni; offers alternative to al-Qa`ida in Iraq (AQI)
1,000 – 5,000 League of the Righteous Shiite; opposed to al-Sadr and the Mahdi Army, thought to be fighting in both Iraq and Syria; supported by Iran

*see “State Failure,” Annual Review of Political Science, 2008.

Image Credit: Business Insider Australia

This Week in DC: Events

October 21, 2014

Iranian Policy Toward the Iraqi and Syrian Crises
Date: October 21, 12:00pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC

Tehran has had a longstanding alliance with Damascus over the past 35 years, and its relations with Baghdad have steadily improved since the ouster of Saddam Hussein in 2003. This has resulted in close ties between Iran and these two key Arab states. However, this has all been called into question since the eruption of the Syrian revolt in 2011, and moreover, the recent rise of ISIS and its challenge to the Iraqi state. Iran has become heavily involved in both conflicts since it has much at stake. Jubin Goodarzi will provide an overview of the evolving situation and focus on Iran’s policies, perspectives, interests, and options in the ongoing Syrian and Iraqi crises.

RSVP here or watch the webcast here.

Development of Vaccines Against Pathogenic Human Polyomaviruses
Date: October 21, 12:00pm
Location: Georgetown University, 3900 Reservoir Road NW, Washington DC

Christopher Buck, Ph.D., Head of the Tumor Virus Molecular Biology Section of NCI (NIH) in Bethesda, MD will speak about the development of vaccines against human polyomaviruses.

Winning Paktika: Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan
Date: October 21, 4:30pm
Location: Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW, Washington DC

Just days prior to deploying to combat in Afghanistan, Lieutenant Colonel Walter Piatt, commander of the 2nd Battalion, 27th Infantry “Wolfhounds” announced this visionary statement in front of an assembly of 800 infantrymen and their families. Naturally, none of the soldiers listening to the Colonel’s rhetoric thought it was possible to actually win the war without killing a single person. That hardly sounded like “war” at all. In fact, that simple concept was the very antithesis of the previous 10 months they had all spent training to explicitly kill people with speed and violence. Destroying the enemy was the fundamental focus of every infantryman. It was, of course, the very reason the infantry existed in the first place.

The Colonel, an infantryman himself no less, challenged his battalion’s conventional thinking that day and throughout the ensuing campaign. His striking pronouncement was the theoretical extreme of counterinsurgency doctrine. It emphasizes the importance of nation-building instead of man-hunting, construction instead of destruction, and dropping schools and wells into villages instead of artillery shells. That was his vision and that is what he led his infantrymen to do.

This is the story of the Wolfhounds in 2nd Platoon, Bravo Company through the eyes of a young platoon leader. He details their adventures on the frontier in a little-known dangerous place called Paktika Province, centrally located along Afghanistan’s volatile border with Pakistan. It is the story of ordinary men, cast into a treacherous and unfamiliar world with the mission to destroy the enemy’s sanctuary, not just the enemy. It is the story of triumph and failure, elation and frustration through a hard-fought struggle with their identity as infantrymen, evolving from trained tactical killers to strategic nation builders in their quest to win Paktika.

Register here.

October 22, 2014

Ensuring a Strong U.S. Defense for the Future: Findings of the National Defense Panel
Date: October 22, 10:00am
Location: Bipartisan Policy Center, 1225 I Street NW, Washington DC

In recent months, the U.S. military has been dispatched to the Middle East to fight ISIS, to Africa to combat Ebola and to Eastern Europe to deter Russia. Yet, automatic reductions to the defense budget, known as “sequestration,” remain the law of the land. Highlighting this tension between national security and fiscal restraint, Michèle Flournoy and Eric Edelman, members of the bipartisan, congressionally-mandated National Defense Panel, warned in a recent op-ed, “without budgetary relief, the U.S. armed forces soon will be at high risk of not being able to accomplish the national defense strategy.”

Join us for a discussion of the new findings of the National Defense Panel, the effects of sequestration on the U.S. military and how our national security can be sustainably resourced.

Register here.

A Dangerous World? Threat Perception and U.S. National Security
Date: October 22, 12:00pm
Location: Cato Institute, 1000 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

Featuring the editors John Mueller, Woody Hayes Senior Research Scientist, Mershon Center, Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University, and Senior Fellow, Cato Institute; and Christopher Preble, Vice President, Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute; with comments by Frank Hoffman, Senior Research Fellow, National Defense University; and James Fallows, National Correspondent, The Atlantic; moderated by John Samples, Vice President and Publisher, Cato Institute.

In 2012, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey contended that “we are living in the most dangerous time in my lifetime, right now.” In 2013, he was more assertive, stating that the world is “more dangerous than it has ever been.” Is this accurate? A Dangerous World? brings together leading experts on international security to assess the supposed dangers to American security. They examine the most frequently referenced threats, including wars between nations and civil wars, and discuss the impact of rising nations, nuclear weapons proliferation, general unrest, transnational crime, and state failures. Please join us for an illuminating analysis of current and future American national security.

To attend email here, or watch live online here.

Attack of the Drones: Responding to the Newest Type of Provocation
Date: October 22, 2:00pm
Location: Korea Economic Institute, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC

Recently, North Korean drones have been found in South Korea. One of the drones was found to have flown near the Blue House. Pictures of the South Korean President’s residency, troops along the border islands with North Korea, and North Korea’s media reporting that Kim Jong Un viewed a military exercise that incorporated drone strikes all illustrate a new dynamic on the Korean peninsula. Intelligence gathering capabilities and potential for military attacks makes the usage of drones the latest threat the U.S.-South Korea alliance must address.

Join KEI as it hosts Dr. Van Jackson, Council on Foreign Relations and Center for a New American Security, who will examine North Korea’s drone and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) capacity while providing his recommendations on how the United States and South Korea should appropriately respond to avoid an escalation of military conflict. Dr. Jackson will, for the first time ever, present his framework on how to deal with future drone provocations.

RSVP here.

Ukraine Elections: An End to the Crisis?
Date: October 22, 2:00pm
Location: Center on Global Interests, 1050 Connecticut Ave NW, 10th Floor, Washington DC

The past 12 months have seen unpredicted and unprecedented disruption in Ukrainian politics. As the deadly conflict in the country’s east continues and economic indicators plummet, the outcome of Ukraine’s upcoming parliamentary elections will be a crucial factor in determining the future course of the country. Will the Petro Poroshenko Bloc’s “party of peace,” expected to win control of the parliament, be able to overcome the crisis facing Ukraine?

In anticipation of the Oct. 26 elections, please join CGI for a panel discussion exploring the recent changes in Ukraine’s domestic politics, the effects of the election on Ukrainian unity, and the implications for U.S.-Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine relations.

RSVP here.

Corruption, Crime, and Terrorism
Date: October 22, 3:00pm
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

The entangled threat of crime, corruption, and terrorism remain important security challenges in the twenty-first century. In her new book, Dirty Entanglements: Corruption, Crime, and Terrorism, Louise Shelley argues that their continued spread can be traced to economic and demographic inequalities, the rise of ethnic and sectarian violence, climate change, the growth of technology, and the past failure of international institutions to respond to these challenges when they first emerged.

Join Carnegie for a discussion with Louise Shelley. Milan Vaishnev will act as discussant, and Moisés Naím will moderate.

Register here.

Cyber Risk Wednesday: Landscape of the Cyber Threat
Date: October 22, 3:00pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

On 22 October, the Atlantic Council’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative will relaunch Cyber Risk Wednesdays, a series of events dedicated to a deeper discussion and understanding of solutions to systemic cyber risks.

Please join us for the first event in the series that will mark National Cybersecurity Awareness Month with a moderated discussion on the current cyber threat environment with Dmitri Alperovitch, cofounder & CTO at CrowdStrike and Tom Corcoran, senior policy advisor of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, moderated by Jason Healey, director of the Cyber Statecraft Initiative.

This year has had some of the worst headlines ever, with intrusions into trusted companies and not one but two Internet-wide vulnerabilities. Please join us on October 22 from 3:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. at the Atlantic Council for engaging and timely discussion on the current cyber threat landscape.

Register here.

Ukraine, Russia, and the International Order
Date: October 22, 3:00pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 5th Floor, Washington DC

Over the last twenty-five years, the ideal of an integrated Euro-Atlantic community including Russia has gradually faded, as new dividing lines seem to be hardening on the European continent. The Ukrainian crisis and conflict with Russia have effectively brought an end to the post-Cold War era; it remains an open question what will be the outlines and nature of the new era that follows. Please join us as William H. Hill, former head of the OSCE Mission to Moldova, looks at the events in Ukraine from multiple vantage points. What happened in Ukraine and what are the prospects?  What motivated Russia’s conduct during the crisis, and what are Moscow’s likely courses of action in the near and medium term? What are U.S. perceptions, motives, and likely responses to the crisis?  Finally, what are the implications of the crisis for the Euroatlantic and global international order? Professor Hill will share his analysis on these questions and Kennan Institute Public Policy Scholar Michael Kofman will provide commentary.

RSVP here.

“No End in Sight” Documentary Screening & Discussion on Iraq
Date: October 22, 5:00pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, Washington DC

The Middle East Policy Forum will show the documentary “No End in Sight,” which provides a critical and comprehensive look at the Bush Administration’s approach at the time of the U.S. intervention and its aftermath. Three experts featured in the film—Ambassador Bodine, Colonel Hughes, and Colonel Wilkerson—will discuss their experiences in Iraq and provide a contextual basis for the country’s ongoing descent into chaos.

This is a special event broken into different parts:
5:00 – 6:30 pm: Documentary Screening
6:30 – 7:00 pm: Light Supper
7:00 – 8:30 pm: Panel & Discussion

Awkward Engagement: Reflections on Doctor’s Without Borders’ Work in North Korea
Date: October 22, 6:00pm
Location: Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 1619 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

Please join Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), the US-Korea Institute at SAIS and the Sejong Society of Washington, DC, for an intimate discussion about MSF’s experience negotiating and working with North Koreans in past decades.

The panel will feature Laurence Binet, author of the soon to be released MSF and North Korea 1995-1998, which takes a critical look at the history of MSF’s activities linked to North Korea, including the difficult decision to withdraw from the country in 1998. She will be joined by MSF-USA Executive Director Sophie Delaunay, who was MSF’s Head of Mission for assistance programs for North Korean refugees in Asia in the period directly following the program closure.

Audience Q&A will follow the panel discussion. This event is free and open to the public. All remarks are strictly off the record. No cameras or video allowed. Seating is limited and granted on a first come, first serve basis.

RSVP here.

The Future of Weapons of Mass Destruction in 2030
Date: October 22, 7:30pm
Location: George Mason University, Merten Hall 1202, Fairfax, VA

Nuclear weapons are likely to play a more significant role in an increasingly multipolar global system, and technological advances will enable new forms of chemical and biological weapons. The proliferation and use of these weapons could be harder to prevent. To discuss the impact of technological change and the evolving geopolitical environment on the future of weapons of mass destruction, this Biodefense Policy seminar will feature John P. Caves, Jr., and Dr. W. Seth Carus of the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at National Defense University.

October 23, 2014

Reflections on Islamism: From the Muslim Brotherhood to the Islamic State
Date: October 23, 12:30pm
Location: Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Once again, Islamism has taken center stage in the Middle East. A generation ago, the pivotal events were the takeover of the Mecca mosque and the Islamic Revolution in Iran; a half-generation ago, the pivotal events were the horrific attacks of September 11. With the counterrevolution against the world’s oldest Islamist movement, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and the sudden and bloody emergence of its newest, the “caliphate” called the Islamic State, the complex face of Islamism is again capturing the attention of governments, journalists, analysts, and popular imagination. To inform our understanding of the changing face of Islamism and provide a scholarly context for the decisions policymakers need to make, The Washington Institute is pleased to host its seventh annual Zeev Schiff Memorial Lecture, featuring distinguished Israeli historian and diplomat Shimon Shamir.

This event will be live cast here.

China: Threat or Partner
Date: October 23, 5:00pm
Location: U.S. Navy Memorial Heritage Center, 701 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC

The protests in Hong Kong over the past few weeks serve as a stark reminder:  Despite the progress China has made as a global economic power, and the vital U.S.-Chinese economic relationship, China continues to repress human rights and democracy.  It is putting pressure on foreign companies inside China, while sewing up strategic resources in developing countries.  And its military build-up and claims on air and sea space in the East and South China Seas – even challenging U.S. military aircraft – remind us that China is a growing military challenge to the status quo in Asia.

Given all this – how should the United States formulate its own policy toward China?  Is strategic engagement still working – building a platform for a long-term, mutually beneficial U.S.-Chinese relationship, with China ultimately becoming a “responsible stakeholder” in the global community?  Or is such engagement failing – allowing China to dismiss human rights concerns and challenge security in Asia with no real pushback from the United States and its Allies.  And if the United States is to “get tough” with China – exactly what would that mean in practice?

We look forward to a lively debate, as leading U.S.-China experts tackle the question:  “China: Is Engagement Still Working?” the latest in our Debate and Decision Series events at the McCain Institute.

Register here.

Islam, Gender, and Democracy
Date: October 23, 5:00pm
Location: Georgetown University, Healy Hall, Riggs Library, 37th and O Streets NW, Washington DC

Since the Arab Awakening, the question of women’s rights has become, in the view of Western commentators, the litmus test for Muslim societies in the age of democracy and liberalism. The issue is often framed as the opposition between liberal advocates of secular democracy and religious opponents of women’s full equality.

A panel of scholars, including the Berkley Center’s José Casanova and Jocelyne Cesari, will examine this binary opposition and reframe the debate around Islam and women’s rights. Participants will provide a broader comparison across religious traditions and cultures through a discussion of religion, secularism, democracy, and gender equality in France, Iran, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt, and the United States.

This event is cosponsored by the Berkley Center and the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace, and Security. A reception will follow.

For more information and to RSVP, please visit the event page.