Month: October 2014

GMU Biodfense faculty in the Washington Post

by juliadhomstad, posted in News, Program News

This week, GMU Biodefense Deputy Director Gregory Koblentz contributed to and Director Trevor Thrall was quoted this week in the Washington Post article titled “If news media had covered Ebola sooner, could latest outbreak have been contained?” Read the whole article here.

“Some of the American media’s indifference to the story may have reflected entrenched attitudes toward Africa, said A. Trevor Thrall, the director of George Mason’s biodefense graduate program. “Thanks to low public interest in Africa and the fact that very few U.S. news organizations have any footprint in Africa, Africa is more or less invisible in the U.S. media most of the time,” he said. “With a few exceptions, Africa shows up only when something happens that directly affects Americans or when the U.S. government takes some kind of action.”’

The Manifestos of the Islamic State, Part II

by juliadhomstad, posted in News

The Manifestos of the Islamic State: Part I is available here.

By Erik Goepner

Potential recruits hear at least two different messages from the Islamic State. The first is a grievance-based message that can, by definition, be ameliorated over time. The second, though, appears to be timeless, albeit subject to significant waxing and waning of appeal.

God infuses this second message, which makes it enduring. With more than 80 percent of the world’s inhabitants professing a religious identity, including 1.6 billion Muslims, God is bigger than the Beatles and it is Nietzsche who is dead. However corrupt IS’ message might be, it is God-focused. Each speech begins and ends with praises to Allah. References to key Quranic figures, such as Muhammad, are common. Verses from the Quran are interspersed throughout their proclamations.

No doubt IS carefully selects certain passages and overlooks others, but in its larger context, the verses remain the expression of God. For the faithful, that can be quite powerful.

The message also endures because of its purported purity. The message calls its hearers to purity before Allah and the message itself is pure, in that it is unambiguous. Purity before God is an important pursuit for many religious people, and this pursuit often requires personal sacrifice. At God’s command, Abraham had his knife out, ready to slay his own son. Flogged for their faith, Jesus’ followers rejoiced for being “counted worthy” of suffering for God. Sacrifices seen as callings from God can have profound implications for the pious believer.

IS also communicates a black and white story. In a nod to Hitler, Mao, and Pol Pot before them, grey cannot be found in IS’ messages, and with no shade of grey goes any need for doubt or accommodation. As a result, their message is particularly effective on youth, who have great capacity to see hypocrisy in others but oftentimes have not yet developed the wisdom needed to see their own hypocrisy and shortcomings.

As for IS’ grievance-based theme, it may be more successful in attracting recruits, but it need only have temporal appeal. “Upon whom do they [the Americans, Jews and rafidah] plot and conspire night and day?” The Islamic State, answers their spokesman (1:50 into the video). Transgressions are being meted out against Muslims in “Palestine, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Burma, Nigeria, Somalia, Afghanistan, Indonesia, India, China, the Caucasus, and elsewhere,” claims IS.

As IS tells it, the Sunnis (often represented as the “true believers”) are under siege:

  • The Egyptian Brotherhood outlawed and imprisoned, again
  • Sunnis have become second-class citizens in Iraq following Saddam’s ousting
  • They are the “out-group” in Syria (despite being the majority)
  • Israel’s treatment of Palestinians
  • Killing of Muslims in Burma

In Andrew Bacevich’s recent op-ed, he notes Syria has become “at least the 14th country in the Islamic world that U.S. forces have invaded or occupied or bombed…since 1980.” This latest foray he expressively phrases, “Greater Middle East Battlefield XIV.” There is no hint that the force was unjustified, but rather his article raises interesting questions about how that force may be interpreted and reacted to.

Over time, the grievance-based theme can be substantially ameliorated by the efforts of a variety of actors within the Middle East (e.g., by enfranchising Sunni communities to a greater extent or providing increased economic opportunities for youth). The God-focused message, though, may prove more problematic. While its appeal seems to vary greatly through the centuries, the 9/11 Commission noted (see ch 12, p. 362) it follows a tradition “from at least Ibn Taymiyyah [~1300], through the founders of Wahhabism, through the Muslim Brotherhood, to Sayyid Qutb [1950s].”

So what is a possible way forward? “Reform coupled with respect,” suggests Fareed Zakaria, where intellectuals and theologians celebrate and emphasize the tolerant, liberal, and modern parts of Islam, while also giving devout Muslims reasons to take pride in their faith.

Week in DC: Events

by juliadhomstad, posted in Events, Week In DC

October 14, 2014

U.S. Postal Inspection Service: Managing Global Threats to U.S. National Security and International Commerce
Date: October 14, 4:00pm
Location: Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW, Washington DC

U.S. Mail comprises nearly 50% of the world’s total mail volume, and a significant amount is sent to or from countries around the globe. The U.S. Postal Inspection Service, one of the oldest federal law enforcement agencies, and its Global Security and Investigations Team of U.S. Postal Inspectors, ensures the security of all U.S. Mail, including military and diplomatic mail, which transits to and from foreign postal administrations and U.S. installations overseas. Postal Inspectors protect postal revenues generated by international business development, liaison with foreign stakeholders and international organizations, and ensure that the sanctity of the mail is not hindered as it crosses national borders.

Join us as Postal Inspector in Charge Gregory S. Crabb of the Postal Inspection Service’s Revenue, Product & Global Security Group, discusses various topics, including:

– The Global Security and Investigations Team mission
– International mail security, including United Nations activities
– Post-Yemen parcel bomb security
– National security requirements, particularly export screening
– Prohibited mail, including intellectual property offenses and drugs and guns in inbound international mail
– Cyber security threats

Following the presentation, recruiters from the Postal Inspection Service will discuss how you can apply for a position as a federal U.S. Postal Inspector. Information on Inspector assignments and investigations will be shared as well.

Register here.

Marine Corps Intelligence and the “New Normal”
Date: October 14, 5:00pm
Location: Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW, Washington DC

General Michael S. Groen will address the convergence of chaos, instability and advanced technology and the Marine Corps’ approach to dealing with these factors.  He will review the Marine Corps philosophy towards professional development, the current state of affairs which he characterizes as the “New Normal,” and the Marine Corps’ plan for adapting to this new circumstance: the Marine Corps Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Enterprise Plan.

Register here.

October 15, 2014

The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Has the U.S. Failed?
Date: October 15, 9:30am
Location: Phoenix Park Hotel, Ballroom, 520 North Capitol Street NW, Washington DC

The Middle East Policy Council invites you and your colleagues to our 78th Capitol Hill Conference. Live streaming of this event will begin at approximately 9:30 a.m. on Wednesday, October 15th and conclude at noon. A questions and answers session will be held at the end of the proceedings. Refreshments will be served.

RSVP acceptances only: info@mepc.org, 202-296-6767

Senator Levin on the New U.S.-Afghan Partnership
Date: October 15, 9:30am
Location: United States Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington DC

The inauguration on September 29th of Dr. Ashraf Ghani as the new president of Afghanistan, and head of a national unity government that includes runner-up candidate Abdullah Abdullah as chief executive, marks the first democratic and peaceful transition of power of one elected president to another in Afghanistan’s history. One of the first acts of the new government was to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement with the United States. This long-awaited agreement enables US troops to remain in Afghanistan beyond 2014, supporting the Afghan security forces and the new government, and paved the way for NATO to sign a similar agreement. This shift  offers an opportunity for Afghanistan and the US to restore a bilateral relationship that was badly strained during the final years of President Karzai’s term. For a discussion of the opportunities and pitfalls ahead, please join us in welcoming Senator Levin, closely involved with the U.S. effort in Afghanistan since 2001, and Stephen J. Hadley, Chairman of the Board at USIP and former assistant to the president for National Security Affairs.

RSVP here.

Crisis Communications: Protocols, Pitfalls, and Perceptions
Date: October 15, 12:00pm
Location: Bread for the World Institute, 425 3rd Street SW, Suite 1200, Washington DC

Join us for an off-the-record conversation about crisis communications led by Media Expert Ainsley Perrien of FleishmanHillard, a leading global public relations and communications consultancy. Perrien has significant expertise in print and new media, risk management, brand development, crisis communications, and litigation support.

Ainsley will lead a discussion about how development organizations should navigate the tricky waters of crises that happen in the field, and in the home office, with DAI’s Director of Communications, Steven O’Connor, and USAID’s Evan Matthew Papp, who manages the Public Affairs and Outreach portfolio for USAID’s Office of Transition Initiatives in the Bureau for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance.

RSVP here.

Afghanistan’s National Unity Government: The Road Ahead
Date: October 15, 12:30pm
Location: Georgetown University, 37th and O Streets NW, Edward B. Bunn, S.J. Intercultural Center, ICC 270, Washington DC

Afghanistan just underwent a brutal political crisis that almost broke its executive office and significantly damaged Afghans confidence in electoral processes. With the direct intervention of the US government, President Ashraf Ghani and CEO Abdullah Abdullah formed a unity government that stands to be fraught with discord and power-wrangling. On the other hand, both leaders have committed to a range of much needed reforms; the recently inaugurated Ghani has already taken a number of steps to suggest that he is committed to their enactment. After the successful conduct of the first round of elections in April, what happened? And where will Afghanistan’s executive take the country from here?

Register here.

Fighting ISIS: The Future of American Foreign Policy in the Middle East
Date: October 15, 3:00pm
Location: American University School of International Service, Atrium, New Mexico and Nebraska Ave NW, Washington DC

Speakers include: Ambassador Akbar Ahmed, Ibn Khaldun Chair of Islamic Studies at American University’s School of International Service; Susan Glasser, Editor of POLITICO; and David Ignatius, Foreign Affairs columnist at the Washington Post. Moderated by David Gregory, Distinguished Journalist-in-Residence at American University’s SIS.

RSVP here or stream live here.

October 16, 2014

Pakistan: Audience Realities in an Unstable Media Landscape
Date: October 16, 9:00am
Location: Gallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street NW, Washington DC

The Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) and Gallup invite you to attend a research briefing on media use in Pakistan.

Pakistan remains relatively dangerous for journalists. In recent months, the two most-watched broadcasting channels — government broadcaster PTV and independent TV station Geo News — have been stormed by anti-government protesters. The country’s government also uses blasphemy laws to stifle both online and offline dissent.

Please join the BBG and Gallup for a conversation about media trends in Pakistan. The speakers will share data from research conducted June 3-30, 2014 on media use in the country, and review attitudinal data from the Gallup World Poll.

Register here.

The Future of European Collective Defense
Date: October 16, 10:00am
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC

Please join us for a dialogue with Major General Walter Piatt on the future of European collective defense and our relationship with regional NATO and non-NATO partners. MG Piatt will discuss Secretary General Rasmussen’s concept of a Connected Forces Initiative and U.S. Army Europe’s participation in the Connected Training Initiative.

Register here.

Terrorist Financing Networks in the Middle East and South Asia: A Comparative Assessment
Date: October 16, 12:00pm
Location: Middle East Institute, 1761 N Street NW, Washington DC

The ascent of the Islamic State has raised critical questions about how terrorist organizations are being financed. A comparison of terrorist financing networks in South Asia and the Middle East can offer insights into the differences and similarities in the funding of global terrorist efforts and how money is making its way into the hands of violent terrorist groups.

The Middle East Institute’s Louis R. Hughes Lecture Series is pleased to present Dr. Amit Kumar (Center of National Policy, Georgetown University) for a discussion on the methods, motivations, and efficacy of terrorist financing networks. By comparing financing networks in South Asia and the Middle East, Dr. Kumar will explore possible linkages between the two regions and how these similarities can inform strategies to prevent terrorist financing. He will also examine implications for policy. MEI’s Marvin Weinbaumwill moderate.

Stabilizing Iraq: Lessons for the Next Chapter
Date: October 16, 4:45pm
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies

The Center for Strategic and International Studies presents: The CSIS-Schieffer Series Dialogues Stabilizing Iraq: Lessons for the Next Chapter. This event is hosted by: Bob Schieffer, Chief Washington Correspondent, CBS News, Anchor, CBS News “Face the Nation.” It will include panelists: Dr. Kathleen Hicks, Senior Vice President; Henry A. Kissinger Chair; Director, International Security Program, CSIS; Stuart W. Bowen Jr., Former Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (2004-2013), Senior Adviser, CSIS; Karen DeYoung, Associate Editor and Senior National Security Correspondent, The Washington Post.

Register here.

October 17, 2014

Modi’s Transformative Moment?
Date: October 17, 9:00am
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

The first one hundred days of a new government can be tumultuous as power shifts hands and leaders make dramatic decisions, as evidenced by then Indian prime minister Vajpayee’s nuclear test soon after he assumed office in 1998. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi has thus far proceeded in a more nuanced fashion, making an assessment of his first four months in office more complicated.

Has continuity prevailed in India’s economic and foreign policies? Or does the new budget, new developmental initiatives, and recent summits with leaders of Japan, China, and the United States reflect a fundamentally new dispensation? Has change come about through Modi’s leadership, or through larger shifts in India’s social and institutional landscape? Christophe Jaffrelot and Milan Vaishnav will discuss Modi’s first few months in office and what it could mean for India.

Register here.

The North Korea Human Rights Act: A Decade Later
Date: October 17, 9:30am
Location: Korea Economic Institute, 1800 K Street NW, Suite 1010, Washington DC

While much of the attention on North Korea relates to its nuclear weapons program, the regime has a long record of human rights violations. In the fall of 2004, the United States Congress took up this issue with the intent of finding ways to improve the human rights situation in North Korea. The culmination of those efforts were the North Korea Human Rights Act, which was signed into law on October 18, 2004 by President George W. Bush. As the recent UN Commission of Inquiry report indicates, the issue of human rights in North Korea remains one of grave importance.

RSVP here.

Can the Obama Administration’s ISIS Strategy Work?
Date: October 17, 12:00pm
Location: Hudson Institute, 1015 15th Street NW, 6th Floor, Washington DC

Criticism of the Obama administration’s Middle East strategy is no longer restricted to the president’s usual opponents. Former defense secretary and CIA director Leon Panetta – the latest in a series of departed senior officials to go public with their misgivings – now suggests that the president’s own policies helped make possible the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. “When we stepped out of Iraq,” Panetta observed in a recent interview, “we created this vacuum” – and ISIS is currently filling the space.

Can the same administration now make good its mistakes and repair the damage? Will a strategy limited to coalition aerial bombardment and ancillary assistance to local fighters be sufficient to “degrade and destroy” ISIS, or are the U.S. military officials and regional allies who argue that ground troops will be required correct? In either case, to what extent are longstanding, region-wide issues – like the anti-Sunni policies pushed by Iranian assets in Iraq and Syria – a fundamental obstacle to complete success against ISIS?

To address these and other directly related questions of Middle East strategy and diplomacy, Hudson Institute will host a timely discussion on October 17 with Lee Smith, Andrew J. Tabler, Faysal Itani, andHussain Abdul-Hussain.

Register here.

Pandora Report 10.11.14

by juliadhomstad, posted in Pandora Report

With so many stories being dedicated to Ebola, I was absolutely delighted to see coverage of influenza this week. We’ve also got stories about the proliferation of antibiotic resistant bugs in nursing homes, George Washington as the first father of vaccination, and of course, an Ebola update.

There will be no news round up next week, so I will see you all back here on October 25. Enjoy your weeks and don’t forget your flu shot!

Ebola’s Bad, but Flu’s Worse

With the coverage of the Ebola outbreak in media (and even on this blog) it may have inadvertently caused unreasonable panic in the American populace. The fact of the matter is one person in the U.S. has died from Ebola. Every year, according to the CDC, more than “226,000 Americans are hospitalized with flu and approximately 36,000 die from flu-related complications.” News outlets this week quietly reported on flu vs. Ebola and offered points of clarification about both diseases as well as tips for staying well. These include getting your flu vaccination, washing hands frequently especially after using the restroom and before eating or preparing food, and avoiding touching eyes, nose, or mouth to limit spread of germs.

Times Union—“‘The reality is there are vaccinations and treatment options available for the flu that are not available for Ebola. The reason for concern is there is no magic bullet to stop Ebola,’ said [Dr.Edward] Waltz [director of the Center for Public Health Preparedness at the University at Albany]. ‘I think the most important message to get is, take action on the things that you can control. We have so many things that affect our health that we can’t control, get yourself a vaccination if it is available.’”

Medical Superbugs: Antibiotic-resistant Bacteria Carried by More than a Third of Nursing Home Residents

A study out of Melbourne, Australia, reported that more than 1/3 of nursing home residents tested were carriers of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. And this problem isn’t just plaguing other countries. In fact, a report from the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services found rising rates of pneumonia, urinary tract infections, viral hepatitis and MRSA. The Australian study also found that more than half of the tested residents had received antibiotics within three months of being tested. Overuse of antibiotics can lead to higher rates of superbugs or other infections like C. difficile, which can be lethal in seniors. (On a personal note, my grandmother recently died from complications after a C. diff infection.)

ABC—“‘(Our concern is) that nursing homes are acting as a kind of reservoir, if you like, of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. We know these residents have fairly frequent movement in and out of acute care institutions, and this obviously poses risks to acute care hospitals for transmission. It could be transmitted to other patients in an acute care hospital, if the resident actually has an infection they might be infected with a more resistant bacteria – they’re the two main concerns.’”

George Washington, the First Vaxxer

This week, the Daily Beast provided an excerpt from historian Tom Shachtman’s new book, Gentlemen Scientists and Revolutionaries: The Founding Fathers in the Age of Enlightenment. At a time where people are choosing to forgo vaccinations and alarm over Ebola grows worldwide, it is amazing to see George Washington—Virginian, 1st President, Founding Father, serious boss, and old fashioned speller—decide that army immunization would not only save the lives of soldiers, but indirectly safeguard a young American nation. Shachtman recounts a February 1777 letter from Washington to John Hancock, President of the Continental Congress.

The Daily Beast—“‘The small pox has made such Head in every Quarter that I find it impossible to keep it from spreading thro’ the whole Army in the natural way. I have therefore determined, not only to innoculate all the Troops now here, that have not had it, but shall order Docr Shippen to innoculate the Recruits as fast as they come in to Philadelphia. They will lose no time, because they will go thro’ the disorder while their cloathing Arms and accoutrements are getting ready.’”

This Week in Ebola

The first (and only) patient with a domestically diagnosed case of Ebola died this week in Dallas, TX amid calls, and responses, about tightening airport screening and travel restrictions. Six major American international airports have enhanced screening for travellers arriving from West Africa while airline workers at LaGuardia have protested over what they say are inadequate protections from potential Ebola exposure. In other air travel related news, a passenger was removed from a US Airways flight after joking about being infected with Ebola and a sick passenger traveling from West Africa to Newark airport does not have Ebola. A nurse in Spain did get infected with the virus this week, as other European nations fear further spread inside their countries. American Ebola survivor Dr. Rick Sacra was hospitalized and treated this week for pneumonia and another American Ebola survivor, Dr. Kent Brantly donated his blood in order to help treat an infected NBC cameraman.

Evidently one fifth of Americans, according to a Gallup poll, are concerned about getting Ebola which is causing the ‘apocalypse business’ to boom. Meanwhile, West Africans living in the U.S. are taking action to spread information within their communities about the virus and there was a wonderful piece on how Nigeria beat Ebola. Finally, CDC director Dr. Tom Frieden spoke this week on how this Ebola outbreak is like the AIDS epidemic and why he doesn’t support a travel ban to combat the outbreak. All of this comes at a point in time where the number of deaths from the outbreak has reached over 4000.

Stories You May Have Missed

Image Credit: Immunize.ca

Transmission of Rabies by Bats in South America

by juliadhomstad, posted in News

By Jonathon Marioneaux

Halloween is still weeks away but it is never too early to get into the spirit of ghosts, goblins, and vampires.

Two common Halloween characters are the vampire and the bat so it is fitting to review vampire bats and their real impact on modern society.  In addition, another favorite of Hollywood is the zombie, depicted as a flesh eating undead corpse infected by a rapidly progressing virus.  The closest virus that causes these symptoms is the rabies virus which makes its host bite other animals in order to spread the virus by contaminated saliva. In my research of these two organisms (vampire bats and rabies), I discovered an interesting mini-literature review published in 2003 on the spread of rabies by vampire bats in South America.

Vampire bats are the principle spreader of rabies in South America. The virus infecting humans and livestock causes millions of dollars’ worth of damage to local economies. These bats are known as haematophagous bats belonging to the order Chiroptera with the most well-known species being the hairy-legged vampire bat (Diphyella ecaudata) and the rarer Desmodus rotundus. These bats feed on animals ranging from snakes to amphibians and cattle to humans and drink between 15 and 25 milliliters of blood per meal.  During their blood meal the bats spread the rabies virus through their saliva resulting in paralytic rabies.  Rabies has an incubation period of 21-150 days and causes muscular tremors, excessive salivation, spasms, and erratic activity.  If left untreated rabies is almost 100% fatal with only three known causes of survival without prophylactic treatment at the time of publication. Rabies can be prevented by the rabies vaccine however it is only given irregularly in South American livestock thus leaving many animals susceptible to paralytic rabies.

In South America, rabies has been blamed for expanding bat populations. Different population control methods have included lethal gas and/or dynamiting bat caves and coumarin paste. These methods led to the death of enormous quantities of bats but only a slight reduction in the numbers of rabies cases.  The rabies virus is spread by saliva and asymptomatic bats do not excrete infectious virions therefore the majority of the bats killed probably did not have rabies.  The spread of rabies in humans is mainly in areas that were previously covered by rain forests that were cleared to make build ranches and urban areas.  The main site of transmission is usually in the toes of individuals living in hazardous housing.

Therefore, urban sprawl and deforestation have led to the spread of rabies from bat populations to humans and livestock.  The current methods of controlling rabies, such as dynamiting caves and gassing known populations, may have the unintended effect of killing beneficial bats such as insectivorous (those that feed on insects) and nectarivorous (those that feed on nectar).  A more effective way of reducing the damage to livestock is more consistent animal vaccination practice which is effectively makes the animals vampire bat repellent.  In addition, educational campaigns should be introduced to reduce the “Dracula” image that many bats have.  It is widely known that bats are beneficial to the ecosystem and must be protected. Indiscriminate killing of bats might make a good Hollywood thriller but it is not good for the environmen

Mark Your Calendars: October 2014 Biodefense Policy Seminar

by juliadhomstad, posted in Biodefense Policy Seminar, Events

Title: The Future of Weapons of Mass Destruction in 2030
Speakers: John P. Caves, Jr. and Dr. W. Seth Carus
Date: Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Time: 7:30 – 9:00pm; food will be served at 7:00pm
Location: Merten Hall 1202, George Mason University, Fairfax Campus

Nuclear weapons are likely to play a more significant role in an increasingly multipolar global system, and technological advances will enable new forms of chemical and biological weapons. The proliferation and use of these weapons could be harder to prevent. To discuss the impact of technological change and the evolving geopolitical environment on the future of weapons of mass destruction, this Biodefense Policy seminar will feature John P. Caves, Jr., and Dr. W. Seth Carus of the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at National Defense University.

October BPS CavesJohn P. Caves, Jr., is the Deputy Director of the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction and a Distinguished Research Fellow at the National Defense University. He joined the Center in 2003, where nuclear and chemical weapons matters have been the principal focus of his work. Prior to joining the Center, Mr. Caves served as the Deputy Director for Counterproliferation Policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). From 1997 to 1999, he was the Country Director for Turkey, Spain, and Cyprus in the Office of European Policy, OSD. From 1986 to 1997, he served in a variety of positions within the Defense Security Assistance Agency and in the Office of the Defense Adviser, U.S. Mission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

October BPS CarusDr. W. Seth Carus is a Distinguished Research Fellow in the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at NDU. His research focuses on issues related to biological warfare, including threat assessment, biodefense, and the role of the Department of Defense in responding to biological agent use. From 2001 to 2003, Dr. Carus was detailed to the Office of the Vice President, where he was the Senior Advisor to the Vice President for Biodefense. Before assuming that position, he was on the staff of the National Preparedness Review commissioned to recommend changes in homeland security organization and support the Office of Homeland Security while it was being established. Prior to joining NDU, Dr. Carus was a research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, a member of the Policy Planning Staff in OSD Policy, and a research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The Biodefense Policy Seminars are monthly talks focused on biodefense and biosecurity broadly conceived. Free and open to the public they feature leading figures within the academic, security, industry, and policy fields.

The Manifestos of the Islamic State: Part I

by juliadhomstad, posted in News

By Eric Goepner

The Islamic State’s recently released Flames of War is a sleek, 55-minute video that has led some to draw Hollywood comparisons.  Watching the film, observing its production quality, and use of branding, a viewer might conclude it represents growing capacity for the Islamic State and an increased skillfulness with respect to public affairs and propaganda.  Alternatively, the viewer might detect substantial incoherence between ideology/theology, which can be viewed as anti-Western and backward-looking (to the times of Muhammad), and the tactics they feel compelled to adopt.  Their propaganda tactics mimic Hollywood while their rhetoric deplores the West’s decadence and the technology they embrace is only created in future-oriented societies.  Either way, directly consuming IS’s source material has value beyond what can likely be learned from secondary sources alone.  For the strategy and military-minded, reviewing IS’s primary sources helps actualize Sun Tzu’s dictum to know your enemy.

Part of the picture which emerges from their primary sources suggests a reactive, perhaps helter-skelter, organization quite concerned about what other Muslims are saying about them.  The Islamic State’s press releases, speeches and videos can be as specific as the evils of the Iraqi government and the need to expand operations in Diyala province or as general as “everyone is fighting the state.”  The oscillation between the specific and general seems to have less to do with purposeful vision and strategy than it does with their current fortunes and, more importantly, the actions of others.

Both Flames of War and another recently released video indicate IS is quite concerned the public affairs campaigns of other Muslim groups are having a neutralizing effect against IS.  In a move that defies the Washington injunction to always deny wrongdoing or failure, IS includes footage of other Muslims criticizing them on issues of religious understanding and practice (see Flames of War minutes 23-24 and 4:50+ in the second video).  After, IS interestingly follows this section with graphic video of their own battle dead, only to then include footage suggesting Allah has strengthened them and given them the victory.

A year ago, in a brief video purportedly from their spokesman, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, he railed against fellow Muslim nations, specifically Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Syria.  Then, in July of 2014, Abu Bakr, the so-called caliph of the Islamic State, offered up more traditional propaganda, beginning with numerous quotes from the Quran, extolling fellow Muslims to be and do well during Ramadan, and so on.  When he did turn his attention to the threats that concerned him, he mentioned China first.  Soon after, his threat concerns spewed forth like an unguided brainstorming session:  the Philippines, Indonesia, the Kashmir, Burma, the leaders of the non-Muslim world—“America and Russia,” and on he went.  In all, he listed 19 countries as enemies of Islam.

Around the same time, their spokesman, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, released a 42-minute meandering speech via social media.  In it, he focused on the United States and Europe before expanding his critique to the Canadians and Australians.  Finally, he took aim at the alawites and Shiites.

As for Flames of War, it appears to be targeted at the United States and, perhaps, a broader western audience.  The frequent honorifics given to Allah and quotations from the Quran are gone, replaced with footage of American presidents and military operations.

­­­­­

Next week’s installment will focus on the Islamic State’s recruiting message. On a related note, you might find Andrew Bacevich’s recent opinion piece on the Greater Middle East Battlefield XIV an interesting read.

Image Credit: Mashable

Week in DC: Events

by juliadhomstad, posted in Events, Week In DC

October 8, 2014

NATO in the Face of a Rising Russia
Date: October 8, 2:00pm
Location: Center on Global Interests, 1050 Connecticut Ave NW, 10th Floor, Washington DC

As a result of the Ukraine crisis, Russia-NATO relations have reached their lowest point since the Cold War, with Russia’s annexation of Crimea awakening many in the alliance to the fact that Russia is prepared to use force to defend its interests in Eastern Europe.

Please join us for a discussion with former NATO consultant John Wallace as part of CGI’s new program exploring the long-term consequences of the conflict in Ukraine. Wallace will address, among other topics, NATO cohesion in the face of a reemerging Russia, the appointment of new Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, and the long-term prospects for Russia-NATO relations.

The Ukraine Crisis: Is Nuclear Conflict Likely?
Date: October 8, 3:00pm
Location: National Press Club, 529 14th Street, 13th Floor, Zenger Room, Washington DC 20045

Australia’s Dr. Helen Caldicott – a longtime advocate of citizen action to address nuclear and environmental crisis, founding President of Physicians for Social Responsibility and a 1985 Nobel Peace Prize nominee – believes the current crisis in Ukraine is evidence that the Cold War has not only returned and could well morph into a nuclear exchange between Russia and the U.S.

For the first time in recent history, Russia and the U.S. are in a state of confrontation. Both nations have recently conducted nuclear war games, and some reports suggest that the state of alert of their nuclear arsenals has been raised.

At a National Press Club Newsmakers news conference on Wednesday, October 8, Caldicott will argue that the Cold War has not only returned, but is heating up. The nuclear exchange she fears would result in ozone depletion, radioactive contamination, massive fire storms and a nuclear winter. Even without a nuclear confrontation, Ukraine hosts 15 nuclear power plants. Conventional warfare could cause several of them to melt down.

Like all Newsmakers events, the news conference is open to credentialed media and club members, free of charge. No advance registration is required.

Handwashing Inovations & Inspirations: A Discussion & Reception
Date: October 8, 4:30pm
Location: FHI 360, 1825 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC

Handwashing. It’s a simple behavior with a big impact. But, it is oftentimes overlooked. Given the role that hygiene can play in public health–from preventing the common cold to slowing the spread of infections like Ebola—embracing innovations in design, behavior change, and programming is becoming increasingly important.

Just one week before Global Handwashing Day, you are invited to join the Global Public-Private Partnership for Handwashing, FHI 360, Devex, & WASH Advocates to talk about what’s new in hygiene.

From hygiene integration to innovations in handwashing to insights into behavioral drivers, this year has been an exciting one for handwashing. Hear fast-paced talks from a diverse range of handwashing innovators to inform, inspire, and make us think. Then join us for a pre-Global Handwashing Day reception immediately after the presentations, to mingle and discuss how we can bring handwashing innovation into our programs to improve health around the world. This is a must-attend Global Handwashing Day event for anyone with an interest in the promotion of hygiene and health around the world.

Register here. 

October 9, 2014

Building a Cybersecurity Roadmap: Developing America’s Edge
Date: October 9, 9:30am
Location: Center for National Policy, 1250 I Street NW, Suite 500, Washington DC

The Center for National Policy and The Christian Science Monitor invite you to join us for the second in a series of cybersecurity events convening and promoting the most original thought leaders and cutting-edge practitioners in the field.

From Target to Transportation Command, 2014 has been characterized by a steady stream of reports of high profile cyber intrusions. This event will explore how the U.S. can develop the workforce, education and policy frameworks to slow the trend of cyber events.

Register here.

ISIS and the End of the Middle East as We Know It
Date: October 9, 12:30pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 5th Floor Conference Room, Washington DC

While Western attention is caught by the rise of the so-called “Islamic State”, the real story may be the dissolution of order in the Middle East. How do we understand ongoing political and geopolitical shifts in the region and the rise of new types of actors such as the “Islamic State”? And what, if anything, can and should Western powers do?

Volker Perthes is the executive chairman and director of Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin. He received his doctorate from the University of Duisburg in 1990 and his habilitation in 1999. From 1991 to 1993, Perthes was an assistant professor at the American University of Beirut; he joined SWP in 1992 and headed the Research Group “Middle East and Africa” for several years. His previous teaching positions include the universities of Duisburg, Münster, and Munich; currently, Perthes is a professor at Humboldt University Berlin and Free University of Berlin. In addition, Perthes serves on various national and international bodies such as the Advisory Research Council of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) (as chairman), the International Advisory Council of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies (SIIS), the Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), the TCCI Advisory Board of the Turkish Industry & Business Association (TÜSIAD), and the TTIP Advisory Council of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. Perthes is a frequent commentator in German and international media.

Live webcast available here.

Yemen: Rethinking Fragile States and Counterterrorism
Date: October 9, 2:30pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

Please join the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East for an off-the-record discussion with Admiral Dennis Blair, former Director of National Intelligence, to discuss the US counterterrorism approach in Yemen and the need to develop a more effective operational model for the United States to address security threats emanating from fragile states with weak institutions.

Despite the importance of stability in the Arabian Peninsula for core US interests, there is scant evidence of innovative, ambitious thinking in Washington about how to effectively address the factors driving the growth of extremist networks and potential state failure. The discussion will explore the need for the United States to develop a longer-term, more integrated approach to mitigate such dangers beyond the current short-term tactical responses of drone strikes and investing in elite counterterrorism units.

This event will also mark the release of two Atlantic Council reports: “A Blueprint for US Policy in Yemen,” by former US Ambassador to Yemen Barbara K. Bodine and Deputy Director Danya Greenfield and; “Are Drone Strikes Undermining US Security Objectives in Yemen,” by Danya Greenfield and Assistant Director Stefanie A. Hausheer.

Register here.

Statesmen’s Forum: Secretary Jeh Johnson of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security: Border Security in the 21st Century
Date: October 9, 3:00pm
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, 2nd Floor Conference Center, Washington DC

CSIS is pleased to host Secretary Jeh Johnson for a public address on border security in the 21st century. He will address the state of security on the southwest border, the status of unaccompanied migrant children, and national immigration reform. Secretary Johnson was sworn in on December 23, 2013 as the fourth Secretary of Homeland Security. Previously, Secretary Johnson served as general counsel for the Pentagon and the Air Force, as well as being a private practice attorney.

RSVP here.

Russia and Ukraine: Hybrid War in the Donbas
Date: October 9, 3:30pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 5th Floor Conference Room, Washington DC

Much discussion has taken place about the political implications and outcomes of the conflict in Ukraine, but these have been shaped by military realities on the ground. Michael Kofman will discuss the current military balance and the actual state of Ukraine’s military and defense industry. The tactics employed in this summer’s fighting by all sides will have implications that reverberate throughout the process of ceasefire and political settlement. It is important to understand the military nuances in order to gain perspective on Ukraine’s options in the future.  

RSVP here.

Don’t Wait for the Next War: A Discussion on Strategy with General Wesley K. Clark, USA (Ret.)
Date: October 5, 9:30am
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

Please join the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security to hear from General Wesley K. Clark (Ret.) as he outlines a strategy for American growth and global leadership. As a former supreme allied commander Europe and renowned military leader, General Clark is widely noted for being an exceptional strategic thinker. As the United States winds down from a decade of war and finds itself once again at the precipice of a new prolonged conflict, the country must chart a new strategic course to achieve success. Beyond those issues, terrorism, cybersecurity, financial instability, the rise of China, and global climate change will pose challenges and opportunities for the United States which, without a defined and robust strategy, would prove very difficult to effectively manage.

To meet these challenges, General Clark will outline what the United States should do to remain the global leader and prosper in this new global environment. He also will provide his rationale for why the United States should relearn the art of strategy to succeed now and into the future.

General Clark is a retired four-star general in the United States Army, and served as supreme allied commander Europe, where he led NATO forces to victory in Operation Allied Force, the war in Kosovo. He is chairman and CEO of Wesley K. Clark & Associates, a strategic consulting firm, and is the author of Winning Modern Wars and Waging Modern War. He serves as a board director of the Atlantic Council.

Register here.

Pandora Report 10.4.14

by juliadhomstad, posted in Pandora Report

This week the round up includes Russian bird flu, pregnancy and flu, ISIS threats to British troops, and of course, an Ebola update.

Have a great weekend, don’t forget your flu shot, and keep smart about your news!

Russia Reports First Cases of Deadly Bird Flu in Two Years

Domestic chicken, geese, and ducks in the Altai Krai region of Russia, near the border of Kazakhstan, were found to be infected with the H5N1 serotype of bird flu. These are the first cases of the highly pathogenic flu in this area in nearly two years.

Reuters—“The latest outbreaks in Russia, which led to the death or culling of 344 birds, were thought to have come from wild birds. “Probably, hunted ducks and geese trophies had been placed in backyards where mortality occurred later in domestic birds,” the farm ministry said in its report.”

Why is Flu Virus Higher Risk for Pregnant Women? 

While HHS continues to prepare for pandemic flu, which could kill 60 million people, researchers at Stanford University have looked at the effects flu has on pregnant women. A pregnant woman’s immune system is strongly suppressed, but researchers say this alone cannot explain vulnerability to influenza. Researchers looked at the proportion and behavior of natural killer cells and T cells, which in the presence of flu increased and changed in function. These findings offer a possible treatment path—changing inflammatory response rather than just fighting replication of the virus.

Star Tribune—“Women who get the flu while pregnant have a much higher risk of hospitalization and death and are four times more likely to deliver a premature baby. During the 1918 epidemic, in fact, the death rate among pregnant women was at least 28 times that of the general population.”

ISIS Threatens to Gas British Troops in Iraq: Soldiers Ordered to Carry Chemical Suits

British Special Forces training Kurdish Peshmerga fighters and identifying RAF bombing targets in Northern Iraq have started carrying chemical protection suits. Intelligence sources warned that ISIS fighters may have stolen poison gas from Syrian forces who withheld the agents from destruction. ISIS is thought to have stolen sarin and chlorine gases when they raided a Syrian Air Force base two months ago.

The Mirror—“The [British] soldiers now carry nuclear and biological warfare protection and respirators. All vehicles are being fitted with gas detectors and an RAF Regiment trained in chemical warfare is on standby to fly to the region.”

This Week in Ebola

Oh, Ebola. The big story this week is that the virus arrived on American shores, with the first confirmed case in Dallas and potential cases of Ebola in the DC area being ruled out, the CDC is using contact modeling to help track potential cases in Texas. Arrival in the U.S. has caused an absolute avalanche of news stories and opinion pieces throughout the media. They have ranged from fear mongering about an epidemic in the U.S. and how quarantines would be ineffective, to why you shouldn’t worry about Ebola as a bioweapon. We saw the White House urging calm (and making awesome infographics) and medical facilities saying the average American citizen has nothing to worry about. Meanwhile, there were reports that Ebola poses a greater risk than SARS and AIDS and Louis Farrakhan tweeted that Ebola is a bioweapon against Africans. Use of hyperbole and misinformation do a disservice to those trying to responsibly inform Americans. We saw a case of a doctor in Liberia who quarantined herself in order to keep others safe and another Liberian doctor who seems to have effectively treated Ebola using HIV drugs. And, of course, the biggest problem was that Ebola could affect the cocoa trade. Oh wait, no, that’s what we in “the biz” call a #champagneproblem.

Stories You May Have Missed

 

Image Credit: Pregnant In The City

Why Obama’s War on ISIL Won’t Hold Its Popularity

by juliadhomstad, posted in News, Program News

Biodefense Program Director and Associate Professor Dr. Trevor Thrall, of the George Mason School of Policy, Government and International Affairs, has published an article which appears in The National Interest. An excerpt of the article is available below with a link to the full article.

With the prime-time announcement of his campaign to destroy ISIL, President Obama is staking his presidency in a place he certainly never intended. Obama launches his campaign with what appears to be a reasonable level of public support. A September CNN/ORC poll found that roughly 75 percent of the public supports airstrikes against ISIL, a figure that may climb a bit higher in the wake of Obama’s address to the nation on September 10. This support compares relatively favorably with most U.S. military interventions of the past (see Gallup’s list of public support by major intervention here), closer to initial levels of support for Iraq and Afghanistan, for example, than to the invasion of Panama or the Kosovo air war.

Read the entire article here.