If you love infographics as much as I do (and I’m sure you do) you’ll appreciate this one created by Waka Waka. Forward and share with friends and colleagues, because remember, sharing is caring and knowledge is power!
Author: juliadhomstad
I'm a well-educated Virginian with a BA in History and Government and International Politics from George Mason University and an MA in European, Russian and Eurasian Studies from University of Toronto.
I am working my way through an MS in Biodefense at George Mason University while I work full time in International Education.
So, yeah. Education!
The Islamic State: 5% of the Militarization Problem
By Erik Goepner
An estimated 1,000+ militant organizations currently operate in Iraq, Syria, or both. Comprising somewhere between 600,000 and 1 million fighters, each fights for its desired piece of the power pie. Professor Robert Bates of Harvard wrote that when states fail, “those with power employ it to extract resources from those without power. The latter flock to those who offer them security, albeit often for a price…Political predation from the top is thus accompanied by the militarization of civic society below.”* The “militarization of civic society” seems an apt description for Iraq and Syria, where IS and its ~30,000 fighters comprise just 5% of the overall armed presence.
The extent of militarization within both countries represents a substantially larger problem than IS alone. The 1,000+ armed groups, however large or small, each has a different perspective on what the future should look like, and each appears to agree with Mao that “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.”
Should IS be defeated, approximately 1,000 armed groups would remain. They include the Iraqi army, of which 48% of its brigades are assessed as too sectarian to be a credible force against IS. Syria’s security forces, the next largest group, have been condemned for their systematic attacks against the civilian population, with more than 190,000 now dead. The third largest group is likely the Kurdish Peshmerga, which the U.S. has begun arming. With somewhere between 80,000 and 200,000 fighters, they fight for the Kurdistan Regional Government located in northern Iraq. Their goals remain somewhat unclear, but appear to include increasing territorial gains in Iraq and, potentially, the establishment of their own nation-state. The next largest, the Islamic Front, is an umbrella group for multiple Islamist groups comprised of an estimated 50,000 fighters intent on establishing an Islamic state in Syria. Depending on which estimates are more accurate, the fifth largest armed group is either IS or the Free Syrian Army.
A sample of the remaining 1,000 or so armed groups follows:
| Estimated Fighting Strength | Name | Description |
| 10,000 | Mahdi Army (aka Peace Brigades) | Shiite; fighting IS, historically has received support from Iran |
| 10,400 | Islamic Army of Iraq | Sunni Islamist, nationalist; more inclusive of others within the Iraqi jihadist movement than IS |
| 10,000 | Badr Organization | Shiite; previously aligned with the ISCI |
| 5,000 – 6,000 | al-Nusra Front | Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria |
| 2,000 – 4,000 (“several thousand”) | 1920s Revolution Brigades | Sunni Islamist, nationalist; wants to install a state guided by Islamist principles in Iraq |
| 1,500 – 15,000 | People’s Protection Units (YPG) | Kurdish; has been linked to Democratic Union Party (i.e., the dominant Kurdish party in Syria) |
| 1,500 – 5,000 | Jaysh Rijal al-Tariq al-Naqshabandi (JRTN) | Sunni; offers alternative to al-Qa`ida in Iraq (AQI) |
| 1,000 – 5,000 | League of the Righteous | Shiite; opposed to al-Sadr and the Mahdi Army, thought to be fighting in both Iraq and Syria; supported by Iran |
*see “State Failure,” Annual Review of Political Science, 2008.
Image Credit: Business Insider Australia
This Week in DC: Events
October 21, 2014
Iranian Policy Toward the Iraqi and Syrian Crises
Date: October 21, 12:00pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC
Tehran has had a longstanding alliance with Damascus over the past 35 years, and its relations with Baghdad have steadily improved since the ouster of Saddam Hussein in 2003. This has resulted in close ties between Iran and these two key Arab states. However, this has all been called into question since the eruption of the Syrian revolt in 2011, and moreover, the recent rise of ISIS and its challenge to the Iraqi state. Iran has become heavily involved in both conflicts since it has much at stake. Jubin Goodarzi will provide an overview of the evolving situation and focus on Iran’s policies, perspectives, interests, and options in the ongoing Syrian and Iraqi crises.
RSVP here or watch the webcast here.
Development of Vaccines Against Pathogenic Human Polyomaviruses
Date: October 21, 12:00pm
Location: Georgetown University, 3900 Reservoir Road NW, Washington DC
Christopher Buck, Ph.D., Head of the Tumor Virus Molecular Biology Section of NCI (NIH) in Bethesda, MD will speak about the development of vaccines against human polyomaviruses.
Winning Paktika: Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan
Date: October 21, 4:30pm
Location: Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW, Washington DC
Just days prior to deploying to combat in Afghanistan, Lieutenant Colonel Walter Piatt, commander of the 2nd Battalion, 27th Infantry “Wolfhounds” announced this visionary statement in front of an assembly of 800 infantrymen and their families. Naturally, none of the soldiers listening to the Colonel’s rhetoric thought it was possible to actually win the war without killing a single person. That hardly sounded like “war” at all. In fact, that simple concept was the very antithesis of the previous 10 months they had all spent training to explicitly kill people with speed and violence. Destroying the enemy was the fundamental focus of every infantryman. It was, of course, the very reason the infantry existed in the first place.
The Colonel, an infantryman himself no less, challenged his battalion’s conventional thinking that day and throughout the ensuing campaign. His striking pronouncement was the theoretical extreme of counterinsurgency doctrine. It emphasizes the importance of nation-building instead of man-hunting, construction instead of destruction, and dropping schools and wells into villages instead of artillery shells. That was his vision and that is what he led his infantrymen to do.
This is the story of the Wolfhounds in 2nd Platoon, Bravo Company through the eyes of a young platoon leader. He details their adventures on the frontier in a little-known dangerous place called Paktika Province, centrally located along Afghanistan’s volatile border with Pakistan. It is the story of ordinary men, cast into a treacherous and unfamiliar world with the mission to destroy the enemy’s sanctuary, not just the enemy. It is the story of triumph and failure, elation and frustration through a hard-fought struggle with their identity as infantrymen, evolving from trained tactical killers to strategic nation builders in their quest to win Paktika.
Register here.
October 22, 2014
Ensuring a Strong U.S. Defense for the Future: Findings of the National Defense Panel
Date: October 22, 10:00am
Location: Bipartisan Policy Center, 1225 I Street NW, Washington DC
In recent months, the U.S. military has been dispatched to the Middle East to fight ISIS, to Africa to combat Ebola and to Eastern Europe to deter Russia. Yet, automatic reductions to the defense budget, known as “sequestration,” remain the law of the land. Highlighting this tension between national security and fiscal restraint, Michèle Flournoy and Eric Edelman, members of the bipartisan, congressionally-mandated National Defense Panel, warned in a recent op-ed, “without budgetary relief, the U.S. armed forces soon will be at high risk of not being able to accomplish the national defense strategy.”
Join us for a discussion of the new findings of the National Defense Panel, the effects of sequestration on the U.S. military and how our national security can be sustainably resourced.
Register here.
A Dangerous World? Threat Perception and U.S. National Security
Date: October 22, 12:00pm
Location: Cato Institute, 1000 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC
Featuring the editors John Mueller, Woody Hayes Senior Research Scientist, Mershon Center, Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University, and Senior Fellow, Cato Institute; and Christopher Preble, Vice President, Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute; with comments by Frank Hoffman, Senior Research Fellow, National Defense University; and James Fallows, National Correspondent, The Atlantic; moderated by John Samples, Vice President and Publisher, Cato Institute.
In 2012, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey contended that “we are living in the most dangerous time in my lifetime, right now.” In 2013, he was more assertive, stating that the world is “more dangerous than it has ever been.” Is this accurate? A Dangerous World? brings together leading experts on international security to assess the supposed dangers to American security. They examine the most frequently referenced threats, including wars between nations and civil wars, and discuss the impact of rising nations, nuclear weapons proliferation, general unrest, transnational crime, and state failures. Please join us for an illuminating analysis of current and future American national security.
To attend email here, or watch live online here.
Attack of the Drones: Responding to the Newest Type of Provocation
Date: October 22, 2:00pm
Location: Korea Economic Institute, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC
Recently, North Korean drones have been found in South Korea. One of the drones was found to have flown near the Blue House. Pictures of the South Korean President’s residency, troops along the border islands with North Korea, and North Korea’s media reporting that Kim Jong Un viewed a military exercise that incorporated drone strikes all illustrate a new dynamic on the Korean peninsula. Intelligence gathering capabilities and potential for military attacks makes the usage of drones the latest threat the U.S.-South Korea alliance must address.
Join KEI as it hosts Dr. Van Jackson, Council on Foreign Relations and Center for a New American Security, who will examine North Korea’s drone and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) capacity while providing his recommendations on how the United States and South Korea should appropriately respond to avoid an escalation of military conflict. Dr. Jackson will, for the first time ever, present his framework on how to deal with future drone provocations.
RSVP here.
Ukraine Elections: An End to the Crisis?
Date: October 22, 2:00pm
Location: Center on Global Interests, 1050 Connecticut Ave NW, 10th Floor, Washington DC
The past 12 months have seen unpredicted and unprecedented disruption in Ukrainian politics. As the deadly conflict in the country’s east continues and economic indicators plummet, the outcome of Ukraine’s upcoming parliamentary elections will be a crucial factor in determining the future course of the country. Will the Petro Poroshenko Bloc’s “party of peace,” expected to win control of the parliament, be able to overcome the crisis facing Ukraine?
In anticipation of the Oct. 26 elections, please join CGI for a panel discussion exploring the recent changes in Ukraine’s domestic politics, the effects of the election on Ukrainian unity, and the implications for U.S.-Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine relations.
RSVP here.
Corruption, Crime, and Terrorism
Date: October 22, 3:00pm
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC
The entangled threat of crime, corruption, and terrorism remain important security challenges in the twenty-first century. In her new book, Dirty Entanglements: Corruption, Crime, and Terrorism, Louise Shelley argues that their continued spread can be traced to economic and demographic inequalities, the rise of ethnic and sectarian violence, climate change, the growth of technology, and the past failure of international institutions to respond to these challenges when they first emerged.
Join Carnegie for a discussion with Louise Shelley. Milan Vaishnev will act as discussant, and Moisés Naím will moderate.
Register here.
Cyber Risk Wednesday: Landscape of the Cyber Threat
Date: October 22, 3:00pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC
On 22 October, the Atlantic Council’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative will relaunch Cyber Risk Wednesdays, a series of events dedicated to a deeper discussion and understanding of solutions to systemic cyber risks.
Please join us for the first event in the series that will mark National Cybersecurity Awareness Month with a moderated discussion on the current cyber threat environment with Dmitri Alperovitch, cofounder & CTO at CrowdStrike and Tom Corcoran, senior policy advisor of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, moderated by Jason Healey, director of the Cyber Statecraft Initiative.
This year has had some of the worst headlines ever, with intrusions into trusted companies and not one but two Internet-wide vulnerabilities. Please join us on October 22 from 3:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. at the Atlantic Council for engaging and timely discussion on the current cyber threat landscape.
Register here.
Ukraine, Russia, and the International Order
Date: October 22, 3:00pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 5th Floor, Washington DC
Over the last twenty-five years, the ideal of an integrated Euro-Atlantic community including Russia has gradually faded, as new dividing lines seem to be hardening on the European continent. The Ukrainian crisis and conflict with Russia have effectively brought an end to the post-Cold War era; it remains an open question what will be the outlines and nature of the new era that follows. Please join us as William H. Hill, former head of the OSCE Mission to Moldova, looks at the events in Ukraine from multiple vantage points. What happened in Ukraine and what are the prospects? What motivated Russia’s conduct during the crisis, and what are Moscow’s likely courses of action in the near and medium term? What are U.S. perceptions, motives, and likely responses to the crisis? Finally, what are the implications of the crisis for the Euroatlantic and global international order? Professor Hill will share his analysis on these questions and Kennan Institute Public Policy Scholar Michael Kofman will provide commentary.
RSVP here.
“No End in Sight” Documentary Screening & Discussion on Iraq
Date: October 22, 5:00pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, Washington DC
The Middle East Policy Forum will show the documentary “No End in Sight,” which provides a critical and comprehensive look at the Bush Administration’s approach at the time of the U.S. intervention and its aftermath. Three experts featured in the film—Ambassador Bodine, Colonel Hughes, and Colonel Wilkerson—will discuss their experiences in Iraq and provide a contextual basis for the country’s ongoing descent into chaos.
This is a special event broken into different parts:
5:00 – 6:30 pm: Documentary Screening
6:30 – 7:00 pm: Light Supper
7:00 – 8:30 pm: Panel & Discussion
Awkward Engagement: Reflections on Doctor’s Without Borders’ Work in North Korea
Date: October 22, 6:00pm
Location: Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 1619 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC
Please join Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), the US-Korea Institute at SAIS and the Sejong Society of Washington, DC, for an intimate discussion about MSF’s experience negotiating and working with North Koreans in past decades.
The panel will feature Laurence Binet, author of the soon to be released MSF and North Korea 1995-1998, which takes a critical look at the history of MSF’s activities linked to North Korea, including the difficult decision to withdraw from the country in 1998. She will be joined by MSF-USA Executive Director Sophie Delaunay, who was MSF’s Head of Mission for assistance programs for North Korean refugees in Asia in the period directly following the program closure.
Audience Q&A will follow the panel discussion. This event is free and open to the public. All remarks are strictly off the record. No cameras or video allowed. Seating is limited and granted on a first come, first serve basis.
RSVP here.
The Future of Weapons of Mass Destruction in 2030
Date: October 22, 7:30pm
Location: George Mason University, Merten Hall 1202, Fairfax, VA
Nuclear weapons are likely to play a more significant role in an increasingly multipolar global system, and technological advances will enable new forms of chemical and biological weapons. The proliferation and use of these weapons could be harder to prevent. To discuss the impact of technological change and the evolving geopolitical environment on the future of weapons of mass destruction, this Biodefense Policy seminar will feature John P. Caves, Jr., and Dr. W. Seth Carus of the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at National Defense University.
October 23, 2014
Reflections on Islamism: From the Muslim Brotherhood to the Islamic State
Date: October 23, 12:30pm
Location: Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Once again, Islamism has taken center stage in the Middle East. A generation ago, the pivotal events were the takeover of the Mecca mosque and the Islamic Revolution in Iran; a half-generation ago, the pivotal events were the horrific attacks of September 11. With the counterrevolution against the world’s oldest Islamist movement, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and the sudden and bloody emergence of its newest, the “caliphate” called the Islamic State, the complex face of Islamism is again capturing the attention of governments, journalists, analysts, and popular imagination. To inform our understanding of the changing face of Islamism and provide a scholarly context for the decisions policymakers need to make, The Washington Institute is pleased to host its seventh annual Zeev Schiff Memorial Lecture, featuring distinguished Israeli historian and diplomat Shimon Shamir.
This event will be live cast here.
China: Threat or Partner
Date: October 23, 5:00pm
Location: U.S. Navy Memorial Heritage Center, 701 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC
The protests in Hong Kong over the past few weeks serve as a stark reminder: Despite the progress China has made as a global economic power, and the vital U.S.-Chinese economic relationship, China continues to repress human rights and democracy. It is putting pressure on foreign companies inside China, while sewing up strategic resources in developing countries. And its military build-up and claims on air and sea space in the East and South China Seas – even challenging U.S. military aircraft – remind us that China is a growing military challenge to the status quo in Asia.
Given all this – how should the United States formulate its own policy toward China? Is strategic engagement still working – building a platform for a long-term, mutually beneficial U.S.-Chinese relationship, with China ultimately becoming a “responsible stakeholder” in the global community? Or is such engagement failing – allowing China to dismiss human rights concerns and challenge security in Asia with no real pushback from the United States and its Allies. And if the United States is to “get tough” with China – exactly what would that mean in practice?
We look forward to a lively debate, as leading U.S.-China experts tackle the question: “China: Is Engagement Still Working?” the latest in our Debate and Decision Series events at the McCain Institute.
Register here.
Islam, Gender, and Democracy
Date: October 23, 5:00pm
Location: Georgetown University, Healy Hall, Riggs Library, 37th and O Streets NW, Washington DC
Since the Arab Awakening, the question of women’s rights has become, in the view of Western commentators, the litmus test for Muslim societies in the age of democracy and liberalism. The issue is often framed as the opposition between liberal advocates of secular democracy and religious opponents of women’s full equality.
A panel of scholars, including the Berkley Center’s José Casanova and Jocelyne Cesari, will examine this binary opposition and reframe the debate around Islam and women’s rights. Participants will provide a broader comparison across religious traditions and cultures through a discussion of religion, secularism, democracy, and gender equality in France, Iran, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt, and the United States.
This event is cosponsored by the Berkley Center and the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace, and Security. A reception will follow.
For more information and to RSVP, please visit the event page.
GMU Biodfense faculty in the Washington Post
This week, GMU Biodefense Deputy Director Gregory Koblentz contributed to and Director Trevor Thrall was quoted this week in the Washington Post article titled “If news media had covered Ebola sooner, could latest outbreak have been contained?” Read the whole article here.
“Some of the American media’s indifference to the story may have reflected entrenched attitudes toward Africa, said A. Trevor Thrall, the director of George Mason’s biodefense graduate program. “Thanks to low public interest in Africa and the fact that very few U.S. news organizations have any footprint in Africa, Africa is more or less invisible in the U.S. media most of the time,” he said. “With a few exceptions, Africa shows up only when something happens that directly affects Americans or when the U.S. government takes some kind of action.”’
The Manifestos of the Islamic State, Part II
The Manifestos of the Islamic State: Part I is available here.
By Erik Goepner
Potential recruits hear at least two different messages from the Islamic State. The first is a grievance-based message that can, by definition, be ameliorated over time. The second, though, appears to be timeless, albeit subject to significant waxing and waning of appeal.
God infuses this second message, which makes it enduring. With more than 80 percent of the world’s inhabitants professing a religious identity, including 1.6 billion Muslims, God is bigger than the Beatles and it is Nietzsche who is dead. However corrupt IS’ message might be, it is God-focused. Each speech begins and ends with praises to Allah. References to key Quranic figures, such as Muhammad, are common. Verses from the Quran are interspersed throughout their proclamations.
No doubt IS carefully selects certain passages and overlooks others, but in its larger context, the verses remain the expression of God. For the faithful, that can be quite powerful.
The message also endures because of its purported purity. The message calls its hearers to purity before Allah and the message itself is pure, in that it is unambiguous. Purity before God is an important pursuit for many religious people, and this pursuit often requires personal sacrifice. At God’s command, Abraham had his knife out, ready to slay his own son. Flogged for their faith, Jesus’ followers rejoiced for being “counted worthy” of suffering for God. Sacrifices seen as callings from God can have profound implications for the pious believer.
IS also communicates a black and white story. In a nod to Hitler, Mao, and Pol Pot before them, grey cannot be found in IS’ messages, and with no shade of grey goes any need for doubt or accommodation. As a result, their message is particularly effective on youth, who have great capacity to see hypocrisy in others but oftentimes have not yet developed the wisdom needed to see their own hypocrisy and shortcomings.
As for IS’ grievance-based theme, it may be more successful in attracting recruits, but it need only have temporal appeal. “Upon whom do they [the Americans, Jews and rafidah] plot and conspire night and day?” The Islamic State, answers their spokesman (1:50 into the video). Transgressions are being meted out against Muslims in “Palestine, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Burma, Nigeria, Somalia, Afghanistan, Indonesia, India, China, the Caucasus, and elsewhere,” claims IS.
As IS tells it, the Sunnis (often represented as the “true believers”) are under siege:
- The Egyptian Brotherhood outlawed and imprisoned, again
- Sunnis have become second-class citizens in Iraq following Saddam’s ousting
- They are the “out-group” in Syria (despite being the majority)
- Israel’s treatment of Palestinians
- Killing of Muslims in Burma
In Andrew Bacevich’s recent op-ed, he notes Syria has become “at least the 14th country in the Islamic world that U.S. forces have invaded or occupied or bombed…since 1980.” This latest foray he expressively phrases, “Greater Middle East Battlefield XIV.” There is no hint that the force was unjustified, but rather his article raises interesting questions about how that force may be interpreted and reacted to.
Over time, the grievance-based theme can be substantially ameliorated by the efforts of a variety of actors within the Middle East (e.g., by enfranchising Sunni communities to a greater extent or providing increased economic opportunities for youth). The God-focused message, though, may prove more problematic. While its appeal seems to vary greatly through the centuries, the 9/11 Commission noted (see ch 12, p. 362) it follows a tradition “from at least Ibn Taymiyyah [~1300], through the founders of Wahhabism, through the Muslim Brotherhood, to Sayyid Qutb [1950s].”
So what is a possible way forward? “Reform coupled with respect,” suggests Fareed Zakaria, where intellectuals and theologians celebrate and emphasize the tolerant, liberal, and modern parts of Islam, while also giving devout Muslims reasons to take pride in their faith.
Week in DC: Events
October 14, 2014
U.S. Postal Inspection Service: Managing Global Threats to U.S. National Security and International Commerce
Date: October 14, 4:00pm
Location: Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW, Washington DC
U.S. Mail comprises nearly 50% of the world’s total mail volume, and a significant amount is sent to or from countries around the globe. The U.S. Postal Inspection Service, one of the oldest federal law enforcement agencies, and its Global Security and Investigations Team of U.S. Postal Inspectors, ensures the security of all U.S. Mail, including military and diplomatic mail, which transits to and from foreign postal administrations and U.S. installations overseas. Postal Inspectors protect postal revenues generated by international business development, liaison with foreign stakeholders and international organizations, and ensure that the sanctity of the mail is not hindered as it crosses national borders.
Join us as Postal Inspector in Charge Gregory S. Crabb of the Postal Inspection Service’s Revenue, Product & Global Security Group, discusses various topics, including:
– The Global Security and Investigations Team mission
– International mail security, including United Nations activities
– Post-Yemen parcel bomb security
– National security requirements, particularly export screening
– Prohibited mail, including intellectual property offenses and drugs and guns in inbound international mail
– Cyber security threats
Following the presentation, recruiters from the Postal Inspection Service will discuss how you can apply for a position as a federal U.S. Postal Inspector. Information on Inspector assignments and investigations will be shared as well.
Register here.
Marine Corps Intelligence and the “New Normal”
Date: October 14, 5:00pm
Location: Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW, Washington DC
General Michael S. Groen will address the convergence of chaos, instability and advanced technology and the Marine Corps’ approach to dealing with these factors. He will review the Marine Corps philosophy towards professional development, the current state of affairs which he characterizes as the “New Normal,” and the Marine Corps’ plan for adapting to this new circumstance: the Marine Corps Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Enterprise Plan.
Register here.
October 15, 2014
The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Has the U.S. Failed?
Date: October 15, 9:30am
Location: Phoenix Park Hotel, Ballroom, 520 North Capitol Street NW, Washington DC
The Middle East Policy Council invites you and your colleagues to our 78th Capitol Hill Conference. Live streaming of this event will begin at approximately 9:30 a.m. on Wednesday, October 15th and conclude at noon. A questions and answers session will be held at the end of the proceedings. Refreshments will be served.
RSVP acceptances only: info@mepc.org, 202-296-6767
Senator Levin on the New U.S.-Afghan Partnership
Date: October 15, 9:30am
Location: United States Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington DC
The inauguration on September 29th of Dr. Ashraf Ghani as the new president of Afghanistan, and head of a national unity government that includes runner-up candidate Abdullah Abdullah as chief executive, marks the first democratic and peaceful transition of power of one elected president to another in Afghanistan’s history. One of the first acts of the new government was to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement with the United States. This long-awaited agreement enables US troops to remain in Afghanistan beyond 2014, supporting the Afghan security forces and the new government, and paved the way for NATO to sign a similar agreement. This shift offers an opportunity for Afghanistan and the US to restore a bilateral relationship that was badly strained during the final years of President Karzai’s term. For a discussion of the opportunities and pitfalls ahead, please join us in welcoming Senator Levin, closely involved with the U.S. effort in Afghanistan since 2001, and Stephen J. Hadley, Chairman of the Board at USIP and former assistant to the president for National Security Affairs.
RSVP here.
Crisis Communications: Protocols, Pitfalls, and Perceptions
Date: October 15, 12:00pm
Location: Bread for the World Institute, 425 3rd Street SW, Suite 1200, Washington DC
Join us for an off-the-record conversation about crisis communications led by Media Expert Ainsley Perrien of FleishmanHillard, a leading global public relations and communications consultancy. Perrien has significant expertise in print and new media, risk management, brand development, crisis communications, and litigation support.
Ainsley will lead a discussion about how development organizations should navigate the tricky waters of crises that happen in the field, and in the home office, with DAI’s Director of Communications, Steven O’Connor, and USAID’s Evan Matthew Papp, who manages the Public Affairs and Outreach portfolio for USAID’s Office of Transition Initiatives in the Bureau for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance.
RSVP here.
Afghanistan’s National Unity Government: The Road Ahead
Date: October 15, 12:30pm
Location: Georgetown University, 37th and O Streets NW, Edward B. Bunn, S.J. Intercultural Center, ICC 270, Washington DC
Afghanistan just underwent a brutal political crisis that almost broke its executive office and significantly damaged Afghans confidence in electoral processes. With the direct intervention of the US government, President Ashraf Ghani and CEO Abdullah Abdullah formed a unity government that stands to be fraught with discord and power-wrangling. On the other hand, both leaders have committed to a range of much needed reforms; the recently inaugurated Ghani has already taken a number of steps to suggest that he is committed to their enactment. After the successful conduct of the first round of elections in April, what happened? And where will Afghanistan’s executive take the country from here?
Register here.
Fighting ISIS: The Future of American Foreign Policy in the Middle East
Date: October 15, 3:00pm
Location: American University School of International Service, Atrium, New Mexico and Nebraska Ave NW, Washington DC
Speakers include: Ambassador Akbar Ahmed, Ibn Khaldun Chair of Islamic Studies at American University’s School of International Service; Susan Glasser, Editor of POLITICO; and David Ignatius, Foreign Affairs columnist at the Washington Post. Moderated by David Gregory, Distinguished Journalist-in-Residence at American University’s SIS.
RSVP here or stream live here.
October 16, 2014
Pakistan: Audience Realities in an Unstable Media Landscape
Date: October 16, 9:00am
Location: Gallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street NW, Washington DC
The Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) and Gallup invite you to attend a research briefing on media use in Pakistan.
Pakistan remains relatively dangerous for journalists. In recent months, the two most-watched broadcasting channels — government broadcaster PTV and independent TV station Geo News — have been stormed by anti-government protesters. The country’s government also uses blasphemy laws to stifle both online and offline dissent.
Please join the BBG and Gallup for a conversation about media trends in Pakistan. The speakers will share data from research conducted June 3-30, 2014 on media use in the country, and review attitudinal data from the Gallup World Poll.
Register here.
The Future of European Collective Defense
Date: October 16, 10:00am
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC
Please join us for a dialogue with Major General Walter Piatt on the future of European collective defense and our relationship with regional NATO and non-NATO partners. MG Piatt will discuss Secretary General Rasmussen’s concept of a Connected Forces Initiative and U.S. Army Europe’s participation in the Connected Training Initiative.
Register here.
Terrorist Financing Networks in the Middle East and South Asia: A Comparative Assessment
Date: October 16, 12:00pm
Location: Middle East Institute, 1761 N Street NW, Washington DC
The ascent of the Islamic State has raised critical questions about how terrorist organizations are being financed. A comparison of terrorist financing networks in South Asia and the Middle East can offer insights into the differences and similarities in the funding of global terrorist efforts and how money is making its way into the hands of violent terrorist groups.
The Middle East Institute’s Louis R. Hughes Lecture Series is pleased to present Dr. Amit Kumar (Center of National Policy, Georgetown University) for a discussion on the methods, motivations, and efficacy of terrorist financing networks. By comparing financing networks in South Asia and the Middle East, Dr. Kumar will explore possible linkages between the two regions and how these similarities can inform strategies to prevent terrorist financing. He will also examine implications for policy. MEI’s Marvin Weinbaumwill moderate.
Stabilizing Iraq: Lessons for the Next Chapter
Date: October 16, 4:45pm
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Center for Strategic and International Studies presents: The CSIS-Schieffer Series Dialogues Stabilizing Iraq: Lessons for the Next Chapter. This event is hosted by: Bob Schieffer, Chief Washington Correspondent, CBS News, Anchor, CBS News “Face the Nation.” It will include panelists: Dr. Kathleen Hicks, Senior Vice President; Henry A. Kissinger Chair; Director, International Security Program, CSIS; Stuart W. Bowen Jr., Former Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (2004-2013), Senior Adviser, CSIS; Karen DeYoung, Associate Editor and Senior National Security Correspondent, The Washington Post.
Register here.
October 17, 2014
Modi’s Transformative Moment?
Date: October 17, 9:00am
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC
The first one hundred days of a new government can be tumultuous as power shifts hands and leaders make dramatic decisions, as evidenced by then Indian prime minister Vajpayee’s nuclear test soon after he assumed office in 1998. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi has thus far proceeded in a more nuanced fashion, making an assessment of his first four months in office more complicated.
Has continuity prevailed in India’s economic and foreign policies? Or does the new budget, new developmental initiatives, and recent summits with leaders of Japan, China, and the United States reflect a fundamentally new dispensation? Has change come about through Modi’s leadership, or through larger shifts in India’s social and institutional landscape? Christophe Jaffrelot and Milan Vaishnav will discuss Modi’s first few months in office and what it could mean for India.
Register here.
The North Korea Human Rights Act: A Decade Later
Date: October 17, 9:30am
Location: Korea Economic Institute, 1800 K Street NW, Suite 1010, Washington DC
While much of the attention on North Korea relates to its nuclear weapons program, the regime has a long record of human rights violations. In the fall of 2004, the United States Congress took up this issue with the intent of finding ways to improve the human rights situation in North Korea. The culmination of those efforts were the North Korea Human Rights Act, which was signed into law on October 18, 2004 by President George W. Bush. As the recent UN Commission of Inquiry report indicates, the issue of human rights in North Korea remains one of grave importance.
RSVP here.
Can the Obama Administration’s ISIS Strategy Work?
Date: October 17, 12:00pm
Location: Hudson Institute, 1015 15th Street NW, 6th Floor, Washington DC
Criticism of the Obama administration’s Middle East strategy is no longer restricted to the president’s usual opponents. Former defense secretary and CIA director Leon Panetta – the latest in a series of departed senior officials to go public with their misgivings – now suggests that the president’s own policies helped make possible the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. “When we stepped out of Iraq,” Panetta observed in a recent interview, “we created this vacuum” – and ISIS is currently filling the space.
Can the same administration now make good its mistakes and repair the damage? Will a strategy limited to coalition aerial bombardment and ancillary assistance to local fighters be sufficient to “degrade and destroy” ISIS, or are the U.S. military officials and regional allies who argue that ground troops will be required correct? In either case, to what extent are longstanding, region-wide issues – like the anti-Sunni policies pushed by Iranian assets in Iraq and Syria – a fundamental obstacle to complete success against ISIS?
To address these and other directly related questions of Middle East strategy and diplomacy, Hudson Institute will host a timely discussion on October 17 with Lee Smith, Andrew J. Tabler, Faysal Itani, andHussain Abdul-Hussain.
Register here.
Pandora Report 10.11.14
With so many stories being dedicated to Ebola, I was absolutely delighted to see coverage of influenza this week. We’ve also got stories about the proliferation of antibiotic resistant bugs in nursing homes, George Washington as the first father of vaccination, and of course, an Ebola update.
There will be no news round up next week, so I will see you all back here on October 25. Enjoy your weeks and don’t forget your flu shot!
With the coverage of the Ebola outbreak in media (and even on this blog) it may have inadvertently caused unreasonable panic in the American populace. The fact of the matter is one person in the U.S. has died from Ebola. Every year, according to the CDC, more than “226,000 Americans are hospitalized with flu and approximately 36,000 die from flu-related complications.” News outlets this week quietly reported on flu vs. Ebola and offered points of clarification about both diseases as well as tips for staying well. These include getting your flu vaccination, washing hands frequently especially after using the restroom and before eating or preparing food, and avoiding touching eyes, nose, or mouth to limit spread of germs.
Times Union—“‘The reality is there are vaccinations and treatment options available for the flu that are not available for Ebola. The reason for concern is there is no magic bullet to stop Ebola,’ said [Dr.Edward] Waltz [director of the Center for Public Health Preparedness at the University at Albany]. ‘I think the most important message to get is, take action on the things that you can control. We have so many things that affect our health that we can’t control, get yourself a vaccination if it is available.’”
A study out of Melbourne, Australia, reported that more than 1/3 of nursing home residents tested were carriers of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. And this problem isn’t just plaguing other countries. In fact, a report from the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services found rising rates of pneumonia, urinary tract infections, viral hepatitis and MRSA. The Australian study also found that more than half of the tested residents had received antibiotics within three months of being tested. Overuse of antibiotics can lead to higher rates of superbugs or other infections like C. difficile, which can be lethal in seniors. (On a personal note, my grandmother recently died from complications after a C. diff infection.)
ABC—“‘(Our concern is) that nursing homes are acting as a kind of reservoir, if you like, of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. We know these residents have fairly frequent movement in and out of acute care institutions, and this obviously poses risks to acute care hospitals for transmission. It could be transmitted to other patients in an acute care hospital, if the resident actually has an infection they might be infected with a more resistant bacteria – they’re the two main concerns.’”
George Washington, the First Vaxxer
This week, the Daily Beast provided an excerpt from historian Tom Shachtman’s new book, Gentlemen Scientists and Revolutionaries: The Founding Fathers in the Age of Enlightenment. At a time where people are choosing to forgo vaccinations and alarm over Ebola grows worldwide, it is amazing to see George Washington—Virginian, 1st President, Founding Father, serious boss, and old fashioned speller—decide that army immunization would not only save the lives of soldiers, but indirectly safeguard a young American nation. Shachtman recounts a February 1777 letter from Washington to John Hancock, President of the Continental Congress.
The Daily Beast—“‘The small pox has made such Head in every Quarter that I find it impossible to keep it from spreading thro’ the whole Army in the natural way. I have therefore determined, not only to innoculate all the Troops now here, that have not had it, but shall order Docr Shippen to innoculate the Recruits as fast as they come in to Philadelphia. They will lose no time, because they will go thro’ the disorder while their cloathing Arms and accoutrements are getting ready.’”
This Week in Ebola
The first (and only) patient with a domestically diagnosed case of Ebola died this week in Dallas, TX amid calls, and responses, about tightening airport screening and travel restrictions. Six major American international airports have enhanced screening for travellers arriving from West Africa while airline workers at LaGuardia have protested over what they say are inadequate protections from potential Ebola exposure. In other air travel related news, a passenger was removed from a US Airways flight after joking about being infected with Ebola and a sick passenger traveling from West Africa to Newark airport does not have Ebola. A nurse in Spain did get infected with the virus this week, as other European nations fear further spread inside their countries. American Ebola survivor Dr. Rick Sacra was hospitalized and treated this week for pneumonia and another American Ebola survivor, Dr. Kent Brantly donated his blood in order to help treat an infected NBC cameraman.
Evidently one fifth of Americans, according to a Gallup poll, are concerned about getting Ebola which is causing the ‘apocalypse business’ to boom. Meanwhile, West Africans living in the U.S. are taking action to spread information within their communities about the virus and there was a wonderful piece on how Nigeria beat Ebola. Finally, CDC director Dr. Tom Frieden spoke this week on how this Ebola outbreak is like the AIDS epidemic and why he doesn’t support a travel ban to combat the outbreak. All of this comes at a point in time where the number of deaths from the outbreak has reached over 4000.
Stories You May Have Missed
- Yoshihiro Kawaoka was recognized as a 2014 Popular Mechanics Breakthrough Award recipient for his work on pandemic influenza. You may remember Kawaoka and Ron Fouchier for their controversial work on H5N1 transmission in ferrets from 2011. Fouchier, also, had an interview this week discussing influenza research.
- S. Ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power, tweeted this week that Syrian President Bashar Assad not only had additional chemical weapons but that he is using them “systematically and repeatedly.”
- Is the U.S. responsible for the resurgence of polio in Pakistan? Some blame the CIA’s use of fake polio immunization campaign to find Osama Bin Laden as a reason some are wary of being vaccinated.
- Were you born between 1945 and 1965? You may have hepatitis C and not even know it. The CDC recommends a routine blood screening for those in this age group.
- Where is Kim Jong-Un? And what does that mean for North Korean WMD?
- One of my favorite days of the year is next week…it’s Global Handwashing Day! Mark your Calendar for October 15 and visit the website for tools and planning guides.
Image Credit: Immunize.ca
Transmission of Rabies by Bats in South America
Halloween is still weeks away but it is never too early to get into the spirit of ghosts, goblins, and vampires.
Two common Halloween characters are the vampire and the bat so it is fitting to review vampire bats and their real impact on modern society. In addition, another favorite of Hollywood is the zombie, depicted as a flesh eating undead corpse infected by a rapidly progressing virus. The closest virus that causes these symptoms is the rabies virus which makes its host bite other animals in order to spread the virus by contaminated saliva. In my research of these two organisms (vampire bats and rabies), I discovered an interesting mini-literature review published in 2003 on the spread of rabies by vampire bats in South America.
Vampire bats are the principle spreader of rabies in South America. The virus infecting humans and livestock causes millions of dollars’ worth of damage to local economies. These bats are known as haematophagous bats belonging to the order Chiroptera with the most well-known species being the hairy-legged vampire bat (Diphyella ecaudata) and the rarer Desmodus rotundus. These bats feed on animals ranging from snakes to amphibians and cattle to humans and drink between 15 and 25 milliliters of blood per meal. During their blood meal the bats spread the rabies virus through their saliva resulting in paralytic rabies. Rabies has an incubation period of 21-150 days and causes muscular tremors, excessive salivation, spasms, and erratic activity. If left untreated rabies is almost 100% fatal with only three known causes of survival without prophylactic treatment at the time of publication. Rabies can be prevented by the rabies vaccine however it is only given irregularly in South American livestock thus leaving many animals susceptible to paralytic rabies.
In South America, rabies has been blamed for expanding bat populations. Different population control methods have included lethal gas and/or dynamiting bat caves and coumarin paste. These methods led to the death of enormous quantities of bats but only a slight reduction in the numbers of rabies cases. The rabies virus is spread by saliva and asymptomatic bats do not excrete infectious virions therefore the majority of the bats killed probably did not have rabies. The spread of rabies in humans is mainly in areas that were previously covered by rain forests that were cleared to make build ranches and urban areas. The main site of transmission is usually in the toes of individuals living in hazardous housing.
Therefore, urban sprawl and deforestation have led to the spread of rabies from bat populations to humans and livestock. The current methods of controlling rabies, such as dynamiting caves and gassing known populations, may have the unintended effect of killing beneficial bats such as insectivorous (those that feed on insects) and nectarivorous (those that feed on nectar). A more effective way of reducing the damage to livestock is more consistent animal vaccination practice which is effectively makes the animals vampire bat repellent. In addition, educational campaigns should be introduced to reduce the “Dracula” image that many bats have. It is widely known that bats are beneficial to the ecosystem and must be protected. Indiscriminate killing of bats might make a good Hollywood thriller but it is not good for the environmen
Mark Your Calendars: October 2014 Biodefense Policy Seminar
Title: The Future of Weapons of Mass Destruction in 2030
Speakers: John P. Caves, Jr. and Dr. W. Seth Carus
Date: Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Time: 7:30 – 9:00pm; food will be served at 7:00pm
Location: Merten Hall 1202, George Mason University, Fairfax Campus
Nuclear weapons are likely to play a more significant role in an increasingly multipolar global system, and technological advances will enable new forms of chemical and biological weapons. The proliferation and use of these weapons could be harder to prevent. To discuss the impact of technological change and the evolving geopolitical environment on the future of weapons of mass destruction, this Biodefense Policy seminar will feature John P. Caves, Jr., and Dr. W. Seth Carus of the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at National Defense University.
John P. Caves, Jr., is the Deputy Director of the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction and a Distinguished Research Fellow at the National Defense University. He joined the Center in 2003, where nuclear and chemical weapons matters have been the principal focus of his work. Prior to joining the Center, Mr. Caves served as the Deputy Director for Counterproliferation Policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). From 1997 to 1999, he was the Country Director for Turkey, Spain, and Cyprus in the Office of European Policy, OSD. From 1986 to 1997, he served in a variety of positions within the Defense Security Assistance Agency and in the Office of the Defense Adviser, U.S. Mission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Dr. W. Seth Carus is a Distinguished Research Fellow in the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at NDU. His research focuses on issues related to biological warfare, including threat assessment, biodefense, and the role of the Department of Defense in responding to biological agent use. From 2001 to 2003, Dr. Carus was detailed to the Office of the Vice President, where he was the Senior Advisor to the Vice President for Biodefense. Before assuming that position, he was on the staff of the National Preparedness Review commissioned to recommend changes in homeland security organization and support the Office of Homeland Security while it was being established. Prior to joining NDU, Dr. Carus was a research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, a member of the Policy Planning Staff in OSD Policy, and a research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
The Biodefense Policy Seminars are monthly talks focused on biodefense and biosecurity broadly conceived. Free and open to the public they feature leading figures within the academic, security, industry, and policy fields.
The Manifestos of the Islamic State: Part I
The Islamic State’s recently released Flames of War is a sleek, 55-minute video that has led some to draw Hollywood comparisons. Watching the film, observing its production quality, and use of branding, a viewer might conclude it represents growing capacity for the Islamic State and an increased skillfulness with respect to public affairs and propaganda. Alternatively, the viewer might detect substantial incoherence between ideology/theology, which can be viewed as anti-Western and backward-looking (to the times of Muhammad), and the tactics they feel compelled to adopt. Their propaganda tactics mimic Hollywood while their rhetoric deplores the West’s decadence and the technology they embrace is only created in future-oriented societies. Either way, directly consuming IS’s source material has value beyond what can likely be learned from secondary sources alone. For the strategy and military-minded, reviewing IS’s primary sources helps actualize Sun Tzu’s dictum to know your enemy.
Part of the picture which emerges from their primary sources suggests a reactive, perhaps helter-skelter, organization quite concerned about what other Muslims are saying about them. The Islamic State’s press releases, speeches and videos can be as specific as the evils of the Iraqi government and the need to expand operations in Diyala province or as general as “everyone is fighting the state.” The oscillation between the specific and general seems to have less to do with purposeful vision and strategy than it does with their current fortunes and, more importantly, the actions of others.
Both Flames of War and another recently released video indicate IS is quite concerned the public affairs campaigns of other Muslim groups are having a neutralizing effect against IS. In a move that defies the Washington injunction to always deny wrongdoing or failure, IS includes footage of other Muslims criticizing them on issues of religious understanding and practice (see Flames of War minutes 23-24 and 4:50+ in the second video). After, IS interestingly follows this section with graphic video of their own battle dead, only to then include footage suggesting Allah has strengthened them and given them the victory.
A year ago, in a brief video purportedly from their spokesman, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, he railed against fellow Muslim nations, specifically Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Syria. Then, in July of 2014, Abu Bakr, the so-called caliph of the Islamic State, offered up more traditional propaganda, beginning with numerous quotes from the Quran, extolling fellow Muslims to be and do well during Ramadan, and so on. When he did turn his attention to the threats that concerned him, he mentioned China first. Soon after, his threat concerns spewed forth like an unguided brainstorming session: the Philippines, Indonesia, the Kashmir, Burma, the leaders of the non-Muslim world—“America and Russia,” and on he went. In all, he listed 19 countries as enemies of Islam.
Around the same time, their spokesman, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, released a 42-minute meandering speech via social media. In it, he focused on the United States and Europe before expanding his critique to the Canadians and Australians. Finally, he took aim at the alawites and Shiites.
As for Flames of War, it appears to be targeted at the United States and, perhaps, a broader western audience. The frequent honorifics given to Allah and quotations from the Quran are gone, replaced with footage of American presidents and military operations.
Next week’s installment will focus on the Islamic State’s recruiting message. On a related note, you might find Andrew Bacevich’s recent opinion piece on the Greater Middle East Battlefield XIV an interesting read.
Image Credit: Mashable
The Pandora Report 
