Pandora Report 4.19.15

Sunday has to be the biggest brunch day of the week, so it is only fitting that our lead story looks at the many (delicious and nutritious) uses of maple syrup. We also look at Dengue fever in Brazil, missteps in the U.S. fight against Ebola, and other stories you may have missed.

Once you’re updated, get out there and enjoy the rest of your weekend and the beautiful weather! Have a great week!

Syrup Extract Found to Make Antibiotics More Effective Against Bacteria

It seems like we look at growing antibiotic resistance every week here at Pandora Report. This week, researchers at McGill University in Montreal reported that a “concentrated extract of maple syrup makes disease-causing bacteria more susceptible to antibiotics.” This finding suggests that combining the extract with antibiotics could increase their effectiveness and lead to lower antibiotic usage overall. Honestly, is there anything maple syrup can’t make better?!

Infection Control Today—“‘We would have to do in vivo tests, and eventually clinical trials, before we can say what the effect would be in humans,” [Professor Nathalie] Tufenkji says. “But the findings suggest a potentially simple and effective approach for reducing antibiotic usage. I could see maple syrup extract being incorporated eventually, for example, into the capsules of antibiotics.’”

Brazilian Teams on Alert because of Dengue Fever Outbreak

Brazilian soccer teams are on high alert because of a dengue fever outbreak that has already affected some of the country’s top teams. This week three players were diagnosed with the mosquito borne disease, which normally takes about two weeks to recover from. Players have been forced to use insect repellent during games and practices and health officials have been asked to check fields and training centers for mosquito breeding sites.

USA Today—“Cases of dengue fever have increased significantly across Brazil this year, with most of them reported in Sao Paulo state. Brazil’s health ministry said there have been more than 460,000 cases of the disease in the country in 2015, which accounts for almost 5,000 cases a day. More than 130 people have died so far this year, the ministry said.”

Empty Ebola Clinics in Liberia Are Seen as A Misstep in U.S. Relief Effort

After spending hundreds of millions of dollars and deploying 3,000 U.S. troops to build Ebola treatment centers (E.T.C.) in Liberia, the facilities have largely sat empty. Only 28 Ebola patients have been treated at the 11 E.T.C.s built by the U.S. military. Nine of the centers never had a single Ebola patient. Looking back, the emphasis on building E.T.C.s had far less of an impact than the “inexpensive, nimble measures taken by residents to halt the outbreak.”

The New York Times—“Had the Americans and other donors been more flexible, critics and some officials contend, the money could have been put toward rebuilding Liberia’s shattered health care system—or backing the efforts of local communities—instead of focusing on treatment centers that would scarcely be used.”

Stories You May Have Missed

 

Image Credit: Dvortygirl

New from the Biodefense Faculty

On this #FacultyFriday, we’ve got recent publications and appearances from two George Mason Biodefense faculty members.


Dr. Gregory Koblentz appeared on CBC Radio’s The Current to disucuss the recent Canada-India uranium deal. Listen to the whole segment here.


Charles Blair reflects on the Oklahoma City bombing as the 20th anniversary of the event nears.

Often erroneously explained away as psychopathic, Timothy McVeigh actually comported with psychologist and terrorism expert Clark R. McCauley’s finding that, “the best documented generalization is negative; terrorists do not show any striking psychopathology.” Though abhorrent, McVeigh’s actions are certainly intelligible. Examined extensively by psychiatrist John Smith in the months after the attack, McVeigh was judged as sane—“not delusional.” When asked why McVeigh “would commit such a terrible crime,” Smith concluded that “it was a conscious choice on his part, not because he was deranged … or misinterpreting reality … but because he was serious.”

His entire piece in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists can be found here.

#tbt GMU’s Person of the Year 2014

We all remember that Time Magazine awarded the Ebola Fighters their Person of the Year, right?

Well, George Mason President Angel Cabrera recognized Audrey Ferguson, an Ebola fighter who attended GMU, as his Mason Person of the Year. This is what he had to say about Audrey:

I was delighted, and not surprised, that one of our alumni was among the many unsung heroes who “risked, persisted and sacrificed” to save lives.  And I loved the piece of Mason Pride that she found and shared with us from the heart of Liberia.

When Audrey first came to Mason, she intended to study global affairs. Then she decided to pursue nursing and minor in global affairs, a combination not possible at many other institutions. It’s great that Mason enabled her to pursue both interests and helped prepare her for the important work that she is doing in our community and around the world.

Read Dr. Cabrera’s post here.

Worth Reading: Informative Research on the Islamic State

By Erik Goepner

“The sobering fact is that the United States has no good military options in its fight against ISIS. Neither counterterrorism, nor counterinsurgency, nor conventional warfare is likely to afford Washington a clear-cut victory against the group. For the time being, at least, the policy that best matches ends and means and that has the best chance of securing U.S. interests is one of offensive containment: combining a limited military campaign with a major diplomatic and economic effort to weaken ISIS and align the interests of the many countries that are threatened by the group’s advance.”

From Audrey Kurth-Cronin’s “ISIS is Not a Terrorist Group” in Foreign Affairs. Full article available at http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/143043/audrey-kurth-cronin/isis-is-not-a-terrorist-group


“The United States and Europe already have effective measures in place to greatly reduce the threat of terrorism from jihadist returnees and to limit the scale of any attacks that might occur. Those measures can and should be improved—and, more importantly, adequately resourced. But the standard of success cannot be perfection. If it is, then Western governments are doomed to fail, and, worse, doomed to an overreaction which will waste resources and cause dangerous policy mistakes.”

From Daniel Byman & Jeremy Shapiro’s “Be Afraid. Be A Little Afraid: The Threat of Terrorism from Western Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq” in the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy Paper series. Full paper available at http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2015/01/western-foreign-fighters-in-syria-and-iraq-byman-shapiro


Finally, for a good general overview, take a look at “The Islamic State” by Zachary Laub and Jonathan Masters; a Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder available at http://www.cfr.org/iraq/ islamic-state/p14811.

Week in DC: Events

April 13, 2015 

Iraq Under Abadi: Bridging Sectarian Divides in the Face of ISIS
Date: April 13, 9:00am
Location: American Enterprise Institute, 1150 Seventeenth Street NW, Twelfth Floor, Washington DC

At the request of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, US warplanes began airstrikes against ISIS positions in Tikrit on March 25. But ISIS isn’t the only challenge standing in the way of a stable, unified, democratic Iraq. How should the United States approach Iranian influence in Iraq? Can Iraq ever achieve a true power-sharing democracy in spite of the sectarian divides between Kurds, Sunnis, and Shi’ites?

A day before Abadi meets with President Obama in Washington, please join us for a panel discussion on the future of America’s strategic partnership with Iraq. Experts with extensive regional experience will address the ISIS threat, growing Iranian influence, an economy hamstrung by low oil prices, and looming Kurdish separatism.

RSVP here.

Big Data for Defense and National Security: Maintaining the U.S. Technological Edge
Date: April 13, 11:00am
Location: Government Executive

With posting, tweeting, and streaming, the average American knowledge worker creates 1.8 million megabytes of data a year, enough to fill 9 CD-ROMS a day. But the big data revolution has just begun. There will be 44 times as much digital information in 2020 (35 ZB) as there was in 2009 (.8 ZB) according to IDC.

The national security community is a pioneer in the use of big data to achieve mission objectives but the analytics space is growing as quickly as the volume of digital data, itself. This session will focus on using big data analytics to maintain the U.S. technological edge and gaining advantage over adversaries. Join the discussion to learn:

  • What is the future of big data analysis biometrics relating to defense and national security?
  • How do we translate the insights into operational relevance?
  • What can be done to mitigate the risks of false positives?
  • Can we balance data collection for the purpose of national security with privacy concerns?

Share your questions during the live viewcast using: #NatSecData

Register here to watch live online.

The Iran Nuclear Deal
Date: April 13, 11:00am
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

What are the short and long-term obstacles to finalizing and sustaining a nuclear deal with Iran, and how would a U.S.-Iran nuclear détente impact ongoing conflicts and long-standing alliances in the Middle East? Join the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace for two panels discussing the nuclear deal and its regional implications.

Register here.

The Newburgh Sting and the FBI’s Production of the Domestic Terrorism Threat
Date: April 13, 12:00pm
Location: Cato Institute, 1000 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

Since 2001 the Federal Bureau of Investigation has led a vigorous hunt for domestic terrorists. The results have been mixed. Several attacks have occurred, though not with the apocalyptic results officials predicted. Authorities have stopped other domestic terrorists and, arguably, manufactured more. Through informants and undercover agents, the FBI has essentially organized fake terrorist plots, some ensnaring individuals so inept that they seemed incapable of succeeding in terrorism without government assistance.

One such case is featured in The Newburgh Sting, a 2014 documentary that aired on HBO. The film uses the FBI’s own secret recordings to show how an undercover informant induced four men to join a plot to blow up a Bronx synagogue and attack a nearby U.S. military base. The presiding judge said the government “came up with the crime, provided the means, and removed all relevant obstacles,” thus making a terrorist out of a man “whose buffoonery is positively Shakespearean in scope.”

Please join us for a discussion with The Newburgh Sting’s creator, featuring segments of the film, along with experts from Cato and Amnesty. They will discuss why these sorts of investigations occur and what harm they might cause.

Register here to attend in person or here to watch live online.

Lunch Panel on Iran Deal: Some Answers, More Questions
Date: April 13, 12:00pm
Location: JINSA, 1307 New York Ave NW, Washington DC

The recently announced Iran-P5+1 framework agreement raises as many questions as it answers – both political and technical – when it comes to securing an acceptable final deal that prevents a nuclear-capable Iran. The Iran Task Force at JINSA’s Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy will hold a lunch panel event on April 13, 2015, to discuss its report assessing the outcome of negotiations thus far and next steps for the Administration and Congress.

Register here.

Cracking Down on Militancy in Pakistan
Date: April 13, 3:30pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

Pakistan experienced a ‘Pearl Harbor’ moment last December, when militants attacked the Army Public School in Peshawar. Some say the attack caused a key shift in media and government attitude toward militant factions. However, real directional change had already occurred within the Pakistani Army in June 2014, after it reoriented its objectives and dropped the notion of “good” and “bad” Taliban. The internal dynamics of Islamist militant factions have been in flux for some time amid the changing landscape. What paths are militant groups – such as Jammat-al-Ahraar, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, and even core Al Qaeda and the resurgent Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham – pondering, given the current climate? Hamid will discuss the militancy challenges facing Pakistan.

April 14, 2015

A Different Route to Countering Violent Extremism: What Works?
Date: April 14, 9:30am
Location: United States Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC

From Paris to northeastern Nigeria to Burma, violent extremism has emerged as a critical threat to peace and stability. Military and police responses make headlines, but many governments, civil society organizations and individuals also are doing painstaking work to build resilience, support alternative narratives, reduce underlying divisions and ultimately counter the allure of militant groups. State Department Counselor on Counterterrorism and Preventing Violent Extremism, Eric Rosand, joins the Conflict Prevention and Resolution Forum on Tuesday, April 14, at the U.S. Institute of Peace for a discussion of the results of these efforts, and how to build on effective approaches.

RSVP here.

A Discussion on the FBI 9/11 Review Commission Report
Date: April 14, 10:00am
Location: Elliott School of International Relations, 1957 E Street NW, City View Room, Washington DC

In 2013 Congress directed the Federal Bureau of Investigation to establish a commission to carry out a “comprehensive external review of the implementation of the recommendations related to the FBI” that were proposed by the 9/11 Commission in 2004. That new review commission was convened in late 2013 and released its final report last month, available at this link.

The report examines a range of issues related to the FBI’s counterterrorism and intelligence roles, including such issues as how the FBI addresses emerging threats; the FBI’s relationships with key federal, state, and local partners; and the role of intelligence analysts at the Bureau.

The GW Center for Cyber & Homeland Security (CCHS) is convening a roundtable discussion to assess the findings and recommendations of the report, with participation by Bruce Hoffman, Georgetown University, and Ambassador Tim Roemer, two of the three Commissioners who led the Review; John Gannon, the Executive Director of the Review; and Mark Giuliano, the Deputy Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The discussion will be moderated by Christian Beckner, Deputy Director of CCHS, and the event will include time for participant Q&A.

Register here.

Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About U.S. Sanctions on Russia * (*but were afraid to ask)
Date: April 14, 12:00pm
Location: Georgetown University, 37th and O Street NW, Edward B. Bunn, S.J. Intercultural Center, Washington DC

The BMW Center invites you to “Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About U.S. Sanctions on Russia*  (*but were afraid to ask)” with Adam Smith from the United States Treasury.

U.S. sanctions on Russia are among the most complicated and most consequential economic measures the United States has ever imposed – Russia is by far the largest, most connected economy ever targeted, and the sanctions bring with them unique challenges to the U.S., our closest allies, and the global economy. The result has been a sanctions regime unlike any other, requiring the development of innovative economic tools and intensive US-EU and US-G7 diplomacy.

Adam’s lecture will provide an overview of the mechanics of U.S. sanctions, how new sanctions tools have been developed to address Russian aggression, the ways in which these measures have been deployed in coordination with sanctions imposed by other states and the EU, and the impacts we have been seen.

Register here.

Setting the Stage for Peace in Syria
Date: April 14, 12:00pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington DC

After four years of conflict, the prospect of a stable Syria continues to be bleak, with a diplomatic solution nowhere in sight and military steps lacking in international support. In their report titled, Setting the Stage for Peace in Syria: The Case for a Syrian National Stabilization Force, authors Hof, Kodmani, and White present a new way forward – one that takes President Obama’s train and equip program to the next level forging a Syrian ground force which could constitute the core of the future Syrian Army. The force would have the military mission of defeating any combination of enemies obstructing the stabilization of the country and the establishment of legitimate, inclusive governance in all of Syria. How can this force change the dynamics of the conflict on the ground and how can the international community help build it? What other elements need to be in place to make this force an effective part of a broader resolution of the conflict? Please join us for a discussion of these and other questions focusing on this new report.

At the Hariri Center, Ambassador Frederic Hof specializes in the conflict in Syria. Bassma Kodmani is Cofounder and Executive Director of the Arab Reform Initiative, a consortium of policy analysis institutes that mobilize research capacity to advance democratic change in Arab countries.  Jeffrey White is a Defense Fellow at the Washington Institute specializing in the military and security affairs of the Levant.

RSVP here.

Subcommittee Hearing: Yemen Under Attack by Iranian-Backed Houthis
Date: April 14, 2:00pm
Location: U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2172 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington DC

The Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa hosts the following witness: The Honorable Gerald M. Feierstein, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, U.S. Department of State.

April 15, 2015

Hearing: Confronting Russia’s Weaponization of Information
Date: April 15, 10:00am
Location: U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2172 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington DC

Chairman Royce on the hearing: “For years, Putin has used the Russian media to consolidate power at home and divide societies abroad.  The strategies employed today by the Kremlin are highly sophisticated and well-funded with an estimated annual budget of more than $600 million.  Russia’s media machine has polluted the media environment, the truth is lost, listeners don’t know whom to believe, and fear divides society.  Unfortunately, the U.S. has been slow to respond to this challenge and the agency charged with leading the effort – the Broadcasting Board of Governors – has a well-documented history of dysfunction.  We need to reform the BBG if we are to have a chance against this ‘weaponization’ of information.”

Moving Cybersecurity Innovations from the Research Lab to the Marketplace
Date: April 15, 12:00pm
Location: Association of Public and Land Grant Universities, 1307 New York Ave NW, Washington DC

The Cyber Security Division (CSD) within the Department of Homeland Security’s Science & Technology Directorate has successfully transitioned over 30 of its research efforts since 2004 into commercial and government use. These results include a number of start-up firms, new products, and open source projects. Established in 2012 with White House support, the Transition to Practice (TTP) Program is tasked with spreading the CSD methodology for tech transition to other federal organizations conducting cybersecurity research. TTP provides a structured process for taking research results, validating them through testing and pilots with partners, and working with an appropriate private sector entity on development and commercialization. The program currently has over 20 technologies in the pipeline for transition. Mr. Michael Pozmantier, manager of the TTP, will speak about the program’s methodology, success stories and lessons learned, and his perspective on technology transfer based on the TTP’s notable track record.

Register here.

Subcommittee Hearing: The Continuing Threat of Neglected Tropical Diseases
Date: April 15, 2:30pm
Location: U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2172 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington DC

The subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations host the following witnesses: Ariel Pablos-Méndez, M.D., Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Global Health, U.S. Agency for International Development; Peter J. Hotez, M.D., President, Sabin Vaccine Institute; and Mr. Nicholas Kourgialis, Vice President, Eye Health, Helen Keller International.

Crime and Counterterrorism in Karachi
Date: April 15, 3:00pm
Location: Project for Study of the 21st Century, 1333 H Street NW, Washington DC

Drawing on his time as a police officer and counterterrorism official in Karachi, Omar Hamid discusses the nexus of crime, militancy and corruption in Pakistan’s most populous city. With ever more people living in ever more crowded metropolises, will it ever be possible to maintain the rule of law? And from half a world away, what hope does Washington ever have of influencing events on the ground?

Register here.

Russia and the West: A New Cold War
Date: April 15, 3:00pm
Location: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2121 K Street NW, Washington DC

Are Russia and the NATO embarking on a new Cold War? Since the Ukraine crisis intensified with Russia’s annexation last year of Crimea, this question has been covered intensively in the IISS journal Survival: Global Politics and Strategy. In the February-March 2015 issue, Georgetown associate professor Matthew Kroenig argued that NATO needed to face reality by preparing for such a struggle, including planning ‘for the development and deployment of a new generation of sub-strategic nuclear weapons to Europe.’ In the April-May issue Brookings Fellow Jeremy Shapiro, in a commentary co-authored with IISS Senior Fellow Samuel Charap, argued on the contrary that a new Cold War ‘would be hugely dangerous and costly,’ and to avoid it the US should be prepared for ‘negotiations on a revised regional order in Europe.’

Please join both authors as they present their arguments in a session chaired by Survival Editor Dana Allin.

Register here.

Russian Media and Ukraine’s Domestic Politics
Date: April 15, 3:30pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC

The Russian state increasingly uses state-controlled television as a means of propaganda both within its own borders and abroad. Using precinct-level electoral returns and survey data, Leonid Peisakhin will discuss how exposure to Russian television impacted Ukrainian voters in the 2014 presidential and parliamentary elections.

Register here.

April 16, 2015

Next Generation Nuclear Energy: Cooperation Between Korea and the United States
Date: April 16, 8:30am
Location: Capitol Visitor Center, East Capitol Street and 1st Street NE, Washington DC

On Thursday, April 16 the Global America Business Institute (GABI) in collaboration with the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) will host a hill briefting on the ‘Next Generation Nuclear Energy: Cooperation Between Korea and the U.S.’

If you have any questions, please contact Mr. Mark Olson here. The venue is subject to change.

RSVP here.

Assessing U.S. Sanctions: Impact, Effectiveness, Consequences
Date: April 16, 8:45am
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 6th Floor, Washington DC

The unfolding crisis in Ukraine has the United States and its European allies struggling to find a way to respond to Russia’s actions and continuing violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. To date, that response is centered on calibrated but escalating sanctions against Russia. Once again, American reliance on sanctions as an essential foreign policy tool is on display.

The deployment of sanctions as the primary response directed at a foreign government has ample precedent in modern American foreign policy. Given the importance and likely duration of the conflict in Ukraine, this is an important moment to examine the impact, effectiveness, and consequences of U.S. and U.S.-led sanctions as a policy tool. Past and current examples of sanctions, including Iran, South Africa, Cuba and others will provide important context for understanding the role that sanctions play in American statecraft.

RSVP here.

The Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Critical Issue
Date: April 16, 12:00pm
Location: Heritage Foundation, Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5 plus 1 have entered a crucial phase ahead of the March 30 deadline for a framework agreement. A distinguished panel of experts will examine some of the key issues involved in the negotiations and assess some of the pitfalls that must be avoided if an acceptable agreement is to be reached by the June 30th deadline for a final agreement.

Register here to attend in person.

U.S.-Japan-Australia Security Cooperation: Prospects and Challenges
Date: April 16, 12:00pm
Location: The Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, 8th Floor, Washington DC

In the last several years, the trilateral security relationship among the United States, Japan, and Australia has quickly emerged as one of the most robust “minilateral” cooperative relationships that the United States has with its allies. Much of this is due to the degree to which security relations between the non-US participants – Japan and Australia in this case – have deepened. Today, Japan and Australia are growing to be each nation’s most important security partner following the United States. The US-Japan-Australia trilateral security relationship is also unique in its strong inclination to engage in preserving and buttressing the existing international order in the region. The trilateral relationship has the potential to become a foundation for engagement with other countries in activities that build regional peace and stability. For these reasons, Stimson Center’s latest publication US-Japan-Australia Trilateral Cooperation: Prospects and Challenges dedicates its attention to the US-Japan-Australia trilateral security relationship and seeks to serve as an introduction to the evolving and dynamic trilateral security relations among Washington, Canberra, and Tokyo.

RSVP here.

Reform in Ukraine and What Kyiv Can Learn from the Baltic Experience
Date: April 16, 1:00pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

Please join the Atlantic Council for a conversation with the former Prime Minister of Lithuania, Mr. Andrius Kubilius, and Dr. Anders Aslund, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, on how the Lithuanian experience can inform Ukraine’s economic reform process.

Continued Kremlin aggression in Ukraine’s east has forced Ukraine into war on two fronts: a military war to secure its borders, and an economic war to secure its future stability. Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved $17.5 billion in financial assistance to Ukraine. The IMF package aims to stabilize Ukraine’s finances, restore growth, and support modernization. The new Ukrainian government, under President Petro Poroshenko, is determined to implement IMF reforms, but reformers face challenges left behind by the Soviet legacy and years of mismanagement of the country’s finances. The Baltic States faced similar, seemingly insurmountable, economic challenges in the early 1990s. Today, the Baltics are the emblematic example of successful post-Soviet transformation. Can Ukraine repeat the Baltic economic miracle?

Mr. Kubilius was Prime Minister of Lithuania from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012. This year, he will join Ukraine’s International Advisory Council for Reforms. Dr. Aslund, Swedish economist, is a leading thinker on economic transformation in Eastern Europe. In a conversation moderated by Ambassador John Herbst, Director of the Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center and former Ambassador to Ukraine, Mr. Kubilius and Dr. Aslund will discuss the Ukrainian economy and how the transatlantic alliance can support Ukraine’s reform process. Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President of the Atlantic Council, will deliver welcoming remarks.

This event is open to press and on the record.

Register here.

Options for Dealing with North Korea: More Patience or Engagement?
Date: April 16, 2:00pm
Location: Korea Economic Institute, 1800 K Street NW, Suite 1010, Washington DC

The United States and South Korea find themselves at a crossroads in managing policy towards North Korea. With the Six Party Talks dormant and a growing concern that North Korea is advancing its nuclear program unchecked, there is much distrust on the peninsula. At the same time, economic engagement has faced challenges with North Korea continuing to make unilateral changes at the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

Please join KEI for a discussion with the Honorable Stephen Bosworth and Dr. Marcus Noland on economic and diplomatic options for the United States and South Korea in dealing with North Korea.

RSVP here.

The State of Healthcare and Women’s Rights in Libya
Date: April 16, 4:00pm
Location: O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law, 550 First Street NW, Washington DC

Working as CEO and Deputy Director General of the Benghazi Medical Center, one of Libya’s two biggest tertiary healthcare centers, for the last four years, Dr. Laila Bugaighis is one of a few women executive leaders working in the public healthcare sector in Libya.  Her achievements have led to her official nomination to minister of health more than once.

She grew up between Libya and Austria, spent a gap year studying political economics in the USA before pursing her medical education in Libya. In 2001 Dr. Bugaighis went on to train and finish her postgraduate studies in the UK to become a member of the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists of London. She returned to Libya in 2006 and started working as consultant and Senior Lecturer at the University of Benghazi Medical School. She started her advocacy for reform, ending corruption, and saving women from violence and death. In 2010 she presented results of a four-year Audit, which looked into the failure of reducing maternal deaths in Libya, at an International British Conference, and pushed for the recommendations for reducing maternal mortality in Libya.

Dr. Bugaighis is a member of the Scientific Committee for Reproductive Health of Libya, and a member of the Libyan-EU initiative for healthcare systems reform. In 2012 she reached out to the Global Health arm of Harvard and MGH to link healthcare centers and improve standards and quality in her country. In March 2011 she founded the National Protection Against Violence Committee, which aimed to implement a comprehensive program for gender-based violence in Libya. The Committee, which she chaired, was later incorporated into the Ministry of Health. She also chaired the violence cluster of the United Nations Mission in Libya in 2011, and was invited by the University of Toronto Law School in February 2013 to join a panel of experts on Gender Based Violence in Libya and Syria.

She is co-founder of Al Tawafuk Al Watani, a political NGO working to raise awareness.

Register here.

Unconventional Methods for Assessing Unconventional Threats
Date: April 16, 6:00pm
Location: George Mason University, 1202 Merten Hall, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA

Dr. Gary Ackerman is the Director of the Unconventional Weapons and Technology Division at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). Prior to taking up his current position, he was Research Director and Special Projects Director at START and before that the Director of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism Research Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California.

His research encompasses various areas relating to terrorism and counterterrorism, including terrorist threat assessment, radicalization, terrorist technologies and motivations for using chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons, and the modeling and simulation of terrorist behavior. He is the co-editor of Jihadists and Weapons of Mass Destruction (CRC Press, 2009), author of several articles on CBRN terrorism and has testified on terrorist motivations for using nuclear weapons before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security.

Dr. Ackerman received an M.A. in International Relations from Yale University and a Ph.D. in War Studies from King’s College London.

The Future of Global Health
Date: April 16, 6:30pm
Location: The Hamilton, 600 14th Street NW, Washington DC

Hosted by Global Health Council and the Global Health Fellows Program II, The Future of Global Health 2015 is an event for global health unlike any other. It is a unique opportunity to step outside the usual panel discussion format and engage in meaningful conversation with peers and potential mentors.

The goal of TFGH15 is to foster connections and increase knowledge through conversations among new and established members of the global health community. This year’s event will focus on the global health workplace – the challenges, solutions and skills needed to advance progress on the global health issues of our time. The breadth of sectors – private, non-profit, government, academic and donor – will be represented among the event’s discussion group leaders, mentors and attendees.

This unconference features small group discussions and one-on-one conversation opportunities with senior global health professionals.

Tickets are available here for $30.

April 17, 2015

Honeypots and Sticky Fingers: The Electronic Trap to Reveal Iran’s Illicit Cyber Network
Date: April 17, 2:00pm
Location: American Enterprise Institute, 1150 17th Street NW, Washington DC

The West has severely underestimated Iran’s cyberwarfare capabilities. Despite sanctions, the Islamic Republic has managed to build a sophisticated information technology (IT) infrastructure, and new intelligence indicates that the Iranian regime may be maintaining front companies in the West to obtain cyber technology. How can the United States and its allies enhance their security and combat Iran in cyberspace?

We invite you to join AEI and the Norse Corporation for a groundbreaking discussion on the Iranian cyber threat and the key findings from their joint report analyzing Iran’s IT infrastructure and malware activity. General Keith Alexander, former commander of US Cyber Command and former director of the National Security Agency, will deliver a keynote address. At the end of the event, attendees will have the opportunity to explore the report’s data firsthand at interactive workstations.

Register here.

Lessons Learned from the Ebola Response Enhancing Global Health Security
Date: April 17, 3:00pm
Location: The Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, 8th Floor, Washington DC

In 2011 the WHO International Health Regulations (IHR) review committee warned that, “the world is ill-prepared to respond to a severe influenza pandemic or to any similarly global, sustained and threatening public-health emergency.” Three years later the spread of Ebola in West Africa was a vivid demonstration of shortcomings in global health security.

Stimson and the Government of Finland invite you to join us to discuss the lessons learned from the 2014 Ebola outbreak. We will highlight the activities of Global Health Security Agenda partner countries in the affected West African countries, their efforts to rebuild health systems, and their lessons from the crisis. We will also discuss the role of civil society and private industry to the Ebola response. We will draw lessons learned from international organizations as we consider how the Global Health Security Agenda can best contribute to the strengthening of common capacities to prevent, detect, and respond to the threat of infectious diseases in the future.

RSVP here.

Pandora Report 4.11.15

It’s a public health weekend here at Pandora Report as we check out stories on TB and Polio. We also have other stories you may have missed.

Have a great week and see you back here next weekend!

Ancient Hungarian Crypt Offers Clues to Tuberculosis Origins

As one of the leading infectious disease killers, Tuberculosis, a bacterial infection, holds interest for scientists who disagree over the origins of the human disease. However, a new study in Nature Communications uses a cutting-edge approach called metagenomics to analyze corpses that were naturally mummified in a Hungarian crypt. Of 14 genomes found in eight of the corpses, researchers discovered that multiple strains were circulating in Hungary in the 18th century when these people died.

The Toronto Star—“‘All the historic genomes belonged to lineages that we see today,” said senior author Dr. Mark Pallen, a professor of microbial genomics at the University of Warwick. “So TB hasn’t changed much in 200 years … (and) it turns out that the most common ancestor of the Euro-American lineage that all our (tuberculosis) genomes belonged to dates back to late Roman times.’”

Polio, Cancer—One Nemesis May Counter the Other

Tomorrow, April 12, is the 60th anniversary of when Dr. Jonas Salk’s polio vaccine was declared to be effective. Today, as the world inches closer to full polio eradication, interesting news highlighted on “60 Minutes” looks at the polio virus’ ability to kill another lethal illness—Cancer. A genetically engineered strain of polio virus appears to thwart lethal brain cancer tumors.

The Huffington Post—“The modified polio virus seems to deactivate the cancer tumor’s ability to defeat immune capacities. Freed up, the immune system works at defeating the tumor. Miraculously, the immunotherapy workings spare healthy tissues, while killing cancer cells.”

Stories You May Have Missed

Image Credit: Pudelek

Bourbon, Heartland, and Ticks

By Greg Mercer

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently announced that it has identified the mysterious virus that killed a man in Kansas last spring.  Dubbed the Bourbon virus—after its location in Bourbon County, Kansas—it is an RNA virus in the genus Thogotovirus, according to the researchers who identified the virus.  Thogotovirus includes at least 6 distinct viruses, although only one, the Aransus Bay virus, occurs in the U.S. (but does not infect humans).  Of the genus, only two other viruses are known to infect humans, and the only fatality was the one caused by Bourbon.  Both are spread to humans through ticks.  Ticks are also the vector for the Heartland virus and Lyme disease.

The patient in Kansas experienced nausea, weakness, and diarrhea, followed by fever, anorexia, headache, and other symptoms after being bitten by ticks while working outside.  He was initially treated for tick borne illness with doxycycline, which proved ineffective.  Upon being admitted to the hospital, he was tested for Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Lyme disease, and ehrlichiosis, and treated with broad-spectrum antimicrobial drugs.  Despite treatment, the patient experienced widespread organ failure and died 11 days after becoming ill.  The researchers identified the Bourbon virus in samples through plaque reduction neutralization, originally used to test for Heartland virus antibodies.  Sequencing and analysis then identified the Bourbon virus as a member of Thogotovirus.

The paper from the researchers who identified the virus, linked above, is well worth reading for a look at how emerging viruses are studied and identified, and the challenges of dealing with the first case of a new virus.

The Heartland virus was first detected in 2012, causing fever, fatigue, headaches, muscle aches, and stomach sickness.  Most patients required hospitalization, with most fully recovering.  The CDC has since identified eight cases in Missouri and Tennessee.  Due to the low number of cases, the virus is still not well understood, but all of the patients became sick between May and September, and likely became infected while outdoors.

While researchers assert that the current methods of transmission for both Bourbon and Heartland are unknown, they note that exposure to ticks may be a potential method.  The researchers advise avoiding tick bites as a potential method of preventing infection. The CDC page for avoiding ticks lists guidelines, including using insect repellant recognized by the Environmental Protection Agency and wearing long sleeves and pants outside.

The CDC lists 14 other diseases spread by ticks.  Most recognizable among them is Lyme disease, a common disease to hear about during warm weather.  Interestingly, the CDC tick page also notes the discontinuation of the Lyme disease vaccine in 2002 by its producer, due to lack of demand.  Since the vaccine’s effect diminishes over time, those vaccinated before 2002 are likely no longer protected against Lyme.

It’ll be tick season soon enough so, be generous with that insect repellant!

Image Credit: André Karwath

#tbt U.S. Navy 1950’s Biodefense

Assessing the War on Terror

By Erik Goepner

Reports from The Heritage Foundation suggest there have been 64 Islamist-inspired terror attempts on U.S. soil since 9/11. Of those, only four were carried out, with nearly all of the remaining 60 foiled by law enforcement and a handful thwarted by less intelligent means. From a defending the homeland perspective, things look good.

Their report goes on to say, however, that the number of terror plots have increased over time. Why the terrorists have increased their efforts is subject to much debate. Some contend the U.S. efforts in Iraq from 2003-2011 were inadequate, possibly not muscular enough. Others point to metastasizing local grievances in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and so on, whether those be religious, tribal, etc. Still others think the U.S. has unwittingly fueled the terrorists recruiting efforts. As an example, bin Laden expressed outrage when Saudi Arabia looked to the U.S. for help after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, and his call for the “infidels” to leave the land of Muhammad was a consistent refrain until he himself departed the land. Since 9/11, however, America’s presence within Muslim lands increased, with more than two and a half million American service members having fought in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Globally, the numbers suggest that a large U.S. military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, while killing a large number of terrorists, may have helped the terrorists recruit more than they lost. Department of State reports and information from Stanford University’s Mapping Militant Organizations project indicate the number of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) has increased by 52% since 2000, while the number of Islamic-inspired FTOs jumped by 185%.

2000 2013
Number of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) 29 54
Number of Islamic-inspired FTOs 13 37
Estimated number of fighters in Islamic-inspired FTOs 32,200 110,500

Similarly, the number of fighters in those Islamic-inspired groups, impossible to know with precision, is estimated to have risen 243%.

The terrorists’ production rate has likewise increased. In the 12 years before 9/11, there were an average of 3,207 terrorist attacks across the globe each year. Since then, there have been an average of 4,283 attacks per year.[1] And those attacks have become more lethal. In their 2001 Patterns of Global Terrorism report, the Department of State observed that the 3,547 killed by terror attacks was the highest ever recorded in a year. In 2013, the number killed reached 17,891.

One potential question for the public and our elected leaders: do we want visible, muscular U.S. leadership in the war on terror or do we want to win? Both may not be possible.

Image Credit: U.S. Department of State


[1] See the Global Terrorism Database at http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/.

April 2015 Biodefense Policy Seminar

The Biodefense Policy Seminars are monthly talks focused on biodefense and biosecurity broadly conceived. Free and open to the public, they feature leading figures within the academic, security, industry, and policy fields.

Seminar: Unconventional Methods for Assessing Unconventional Threats
Speaker: Dr. Gary Ackerman, Director, Unconventional Weapons and Technology Division, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)
Speaker: Date: Thursday, April 16, 2015
Time: 6:00 – 7:30pm; complimentary food will be served at 5:30pm
Location: Merten Hall 1202, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA

AckermanDr. Gary Ackerman is the Director of the Unconventional Weapons and Technology Division at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). Prior to taking up his current position, he was Research Director and Special Projects Director at START and before that the Director of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism Research Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California.

His research encompasses various areas relating to terrorism and counterterrorism, including terrorist threat assessment, radicalization, terrorist technologies and motivations for using chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons, and the modeling and simulation of terrorist behavior. He is the co-editor of Jihadists and Weapons of Mass Destruction (CRC Press, 2009), author of several articles on CBRN terrorism and has testified on terrorist motivations for using nuclear weapons before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security.

Dr. Ackerman received an M.A. in International Relations from Yale University and a Ph.D. in War Studies from King’s College London.