juliadhomstad

The So-Called Islamic State

February 25, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in News

Ever since al Qaeda in Iraq rebranded itself as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant in 2013 and split from al Qaeda at large, there has been some confusion as to how exactly to refer to the entity. The extremist group’s growing paramilitary force is attempting to create an independent state governed by a Wahhabist ideology. It has been referred to as the Islamic State, IS, ISIS, and ISIL, with no convention appearing to have emerged, and there has been just as much coverage about the debate surrounding this nomenclature vacuum.

The Associated Press, writing in June of 2014, notes that the Arabic name Al-Dawla Al-Islamiya fi al-Iraq wa al-Sham translates to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, and that al-Sham, which encompasses the Middle East from southern Turkey to Egypt, and is also referred to as “the Levant.” Based on this interpretation, the AP argues that “ISIL” is both the most accurate translation and a clear indication of the group’s aims, as “Islamic State in Iraq and Syria” implies that the group is interested in only two countries. Finally, they note that ISIL is the abbreviation used by the United Nations.

Ishaan Tharoor, writing for the Washington Post in June of 2014, notes that ISIL is used by the State Department and President Obama. However, he points out that the translation leading to ISIL might not be infallible. Citing Hassan Hassan, he notes that “the Levant” might be considered an outdated term, and that “Greater Syria” can be used to refer to the area in question, in which case the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria, and thus ISIS, could be appropriate. He also notes that ISIS is attractive for the way it rolls off the tongue. Tharoor says that the difference between ISIS and ISIL is not as politically charged as, for example, the difference between “Burma” and “Myanmar.”

In September of 2014, Ian Black, writing for The Guardian (which uses ISIS as its in-house standard), noted the sordid history of Islamic State names, and explained that the French government had offered up the term “Daesh,” the Arabic acronym for Al Dawla al-Islamyia fil Iraq wa’al Sham, and which is disliked by Islamic State supporters for notably leaving out the “Islamic” signifier. CNN covered this policy as well.

”You have to name things correctly,” French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told Christiane Amanpour. “They are not a state… they are not representative of Muslims.”

Fabius noted that using the term, which is disliked by extremists for its pronunciation similar to Arabic words for “trample,” or “crush,” is an appropriate response to the group’s brutality. Daesh, then, is a much more politically charged name than IS, ISIS, or ISIL, chosen not just for accuracy, but also for the connotation that it carries for the enemy. It also, notably, leaves out “Islamic,” an attractive option for those who desire to make it clear that these extremists are not representative of Islam or Muslims.

Among this debate though, there is an underlying solidarity. The news of France’s refusal to use Islam-based names came alongside their addition to the forces conducting strikes against targets in Iraq. President Obama might have used a different term than France, but he did so in praising France’s military actions.

Referring to the term Daesh, Army Lt. Gen. James Terry said, “Our partners, at least the ones that I work with, ask us to use that, because they feel that if you use ISIL, that you legitimize a self-declared caliphate. … They feel pretty strongly that we should not be doing that.”

A Google Trends search for ISIS, ISIL, Islamic State, and Daesh reveals the overwhelming popularity for ISIS among Google searches:

Google

While some of the searches for ISIS can be attributed to it being a word with other connotations (an Egyptian goddess, for instance), the search volumes for all of the terms appear to spike at the same times, indicating major news events, with a much higher volume of searches containing ISIS than the other names. While this might not indicate which is the most popular among governments or news outlets, it shows that ISIS seems to be the name of choice for Google users, and the general public.

Regardless of the naming conventions that they adopt, many countries see a common threat in Iraq and Syria.

(Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons)

Week in DC: Events

February 22, 2015July 15, 2016 by juliadhomstad, posted in Events, Week In DC

February 23, 2015

Ebola Rapid Diagnostic Tests: What Lies Ahead?
Date: February 23, 10:00am
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2^nd Floor Conference Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC

As the Ebola epidemic continues in West Africa, a major challenge impeding international efforts to “get to zero” Ebola cases and deaths is the absence of effective, portable, and affordable Ebola diagnostic tools. There has been a considerable push by industry, governments, NGOs, international organizations, and foundations to develop these new tests. While there are many promising tools on the horizon, there are still a number of challenges and unknowns that need to be considered in terms of research and development, and implementation.

Please join us at CSIS on Monday, February 23rd at 10:00am for a roundtable to discuss the status of Ebola diagnostic technologies, the current gaps that exist, and potential solutions. Our panel will include Dr. Michael Kurilla, Director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases’ Office of BioDefense, Research Resources, and Translational Research; Rosemary Humes, Diagnostic Science Advisor at Health and Human Services; and Gene Walther, Independent Consultant to the Paul G. Allen Family Foundation on Ebola Diagnostics. J. Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director of the CSIS Global Health Policy Center will moderate.

Standing Under ISIS Narratives: Implications of a Narrative Lens for Countering Extremism
Date: February 23, 12:00pm
Location: The Wilderness Society, 1615 M Street NW, Washington DC

ISIS continues to undermine the stability of the Middle East, as well as the security of western nations, spreading extremism via social media and recruiting globally. While the military effort to “degrade and destroy” ISIS has had some successes on the ground, the US and its allies find themselves unprepared to counter extremism or contain ISIS’s social media campaign. We cannot “counter” via rational arguments or logic. And the political strategies for pressuring compliance with international policy or promoting a negotiated peace are neither possible, nor practical. “Thinking narrative” offers not only a new lens on ISIS, but it also opens up new possibilities for changing the narrative landscape, at the international level, opening up new options for “countering extremism.” Sara Cobb will offer a short analysis of the ISIS narrative, which will provide the foundation for a discussion of what kinds of contributions a narrative lens could offer US policy makers.

Challenges Against Poverty, Malnutrition, and Infectious Disease
Date: February 23, 2:00pm
Location: U.S.-Japan Research Institute, Conference Room A, 2000 M Street NW, Washington DC

Climate change is one of the defining challenges of the century and increasingly recognized as a public health policy. Previous studies reported the relationship between the increased risk of infections and climate related disasters. Many countries have a high burden of climate-sensitive diseases, but public health capability to respond is not always optimal. Major diseases that are sensitive to climate change often become serious among vulnerable population. Household food security and maternal malnutrition are known to be linked with child mortality and growth. Low birth weight (LBW; <2,500g) is a major determinant of mortality, morbidity and disability in neonates, infancy and childhood and has long term impact on health outcomes in adult life. The prevalence of LBW is estimated to be 16% worldwide with a range of 3-40% and occurs mostly in developing countries. The incidence of LBW in Bangladesh, predominantly the result of intrauterine growth restriction, is one of the highest in the world. This study aims to describe the impact of climate-sensitive diseases on maternal and child health in Bangladesh. The results would contribute new evidence on vicious cycle of poverty and malnutrition, and facilitate policies how to mitigate the impact of climate change among vulnerable population.

Central Asian Fighters in Syria
Date: February 23, 3:00pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, Room 505, 1957 E Street NW, Washington DC

A discussion with Noah Tucker (Registan.net) and Eileen O’Connor, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs.

RSVP here.

IERES’ Behind the Headlines Series Presents: Russia’s Security Agenda Under Putin: A Blurring of Internal and External Securities
Date: February 23, 4:00pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, Voesar Conference Room, Suite 412, 1957 E Street NW, Washington DC

This talk investigates the evolution of Russia’s security policy under President Vladimir Putin in the 21st century, using a critical security studies approach. In particular, Snetkov examines the interrelationship between the internal-external nexus and the politics of (in)security and regime-building in Putin’s Russia.

RSVP here.

The Strategist: Brent Scowcroft and the Call of National Security
Date: February 23, 4:00pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 6^th Floor, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC

For four decades Brent Scowcroft has exerted a quiet, continued, and sometimes great influence over the conduct of US national security policy. Drawing on his new biography, The Strategist: Brent Scowcroft and the Call of National Security, Bartholomew Sparrow discusses how Scowcroft rose to become national security advisor under presidents Gerald Ford and George H. W. Bush. He explores those occasions when Scowcroft’s voice particularly mattered, and addresses the relevance of his life and career to policymakers today.

Bartholomew Sparrow is a professor of Government at the University of Texas. He is the author of From the Outside In: World War II and the American State, The Insular Cases and the Emergence of American Empire, and Uncertain Guardians: The News Media as a Political Institution. Sparrow has been a Woodrow Wilson Center Fellow and a Joan Shorenstein Center Fellow, and is the recipient of the Leonard D. White Award and the Franklin L. Burdette/Pi Sigma Alpha Award from the American Political Science Association.

RSVP here.

February 24, 2015

2015 Index of U.S. Military Strength
Date: February 24, 11:30am
Location: Heritage Foundation, Allison Auditorium, 217 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington DC

The 2015 Index of U.S. Military Strength is a path-breaking, comprehensive research project, to be published annually, which assesses the ability of the United States Armed Forces to provide for the common defense. Taking its place as a flagship publication alongside Heritage’s Index of Economic Freedom and Index of Culture and Opportunity, the Military Strength Index analyzes the U.S. military’s status in capacity, capability, and readiness against an enduring strategic benchmark: the ability to fight and win two major regional contingency operations simultaneously. The publication further looks at how evolving threats and opportunities around the globe contribute to and influence this ability. Finally, the 2015 Index of U.S. Military Strength provides individual analysis of overarching security themes such as how to think about National Security, the implications of prioritized national security policies like the Asia-Pacific pivot, and the critical roles played by strategic enablers such as the United States’ nuclear weapons capability and Special Operations Forces. Join us as for a special discussion of The Heritage Foundation’s new Index of U.S. Military Strength.

RSVP here to attend in person or watch online.

Japan’s Changing Security Policy and the Japan-U.S. Alliance
Date: February 24, 3:00pm
Location: East-West Center in Washington, Conference Room, 1819 L Street NW, Suite 600, Washington DC

Japanese security policy and the Japan-U.S. alliance are now in simultaneous transformation. On July 1, 2014, the Abe administration made a Cabinet decision on development of seamless security legislation, including the Government’s new view on Article 9 of the Constitution so that Japan may exercise the right of collective self-defense. Now the National Security Secretariat in the Cabinet Secretariat plays a central role in legislation work. In parallel, the Japanese Government is working with the U.S. Government to revise the 1997 Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation. In this presentation, first of all, I will explain what Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) can do under the current legislation related to the 1997 Guidelines and what the SDF did for the Global War on Terrorism in the 2000s. Next, my presentation will describe major changes in Japanese security policy after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office in December 2012. Finally, I will discuss the impact of Japan’s changing security policy on the Japan-U.S. alliance. My overall argument is that although the ongoing transformation of Japanese security policy should not be overestimated, it is still instrumental in strengthening and updating the bilateral alliance for the new security environment.

The Military and Indian Democracy Since Independence
Date: February 24, 3:30pm
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

At the dawn of India’s independence in 1947, many worried about the threat India’s army might pose to democracy thanks to recruitment based explicitly on caste and religion. Yet, unlike in neighboring Pakistan, India’s army has not intervened in politics and the country has successfully preserved its democracy.

Steven Wilkinson will discuss how and why India has succeeded in keeping its army out of politics, drawing on research for his new book, Army and Nation: The Military and Indian Democracy Since Independence (Harvard University Press, 2015). He will explain the structures India has devised to balance army and nation, and consider their prospects for continued success in light of India’s rapidly changing society and external environment.

Carnegie’s Ashley Tellis, author of the recent report Unity in Difference: Overcoming the U.S.-India Divide, will serve as discussant. Milan Vaishnav will moderate.

A Conversation with Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, Former Chief of Staff to Colin Powell
Date: February 24, 8:10pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington DC

Join the International Affairs Society for a conversation with Colonial Lawrence Wilkerson. Colonial Wilkerson served as Chief of Staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell, but since retiring, has become an active critic of the War in Iraq. In his talk with the IAS, he will be discussing the need for a new grand strategy in the United State’s security and foreign policy.

February 25, 2015

U.S.-Ukraine Cooperation: Views from Ukrainian Parliamentarians
Date: February 25, 8:30am
Location: National Democratic Institute, Boardroom, 455 Massachusetts Ave NW, 8^th Floor, Washington DC

The National Democratic Institute and the Brookings Institution invite you to join them on Wednesday, February 25, for a conversation with Ukrainian Members of Parliament, including key committee leaders, on the situation in Ukraine and opportunities for U.S.-Ukrainian partnerships.

Maidan Film Screening
Date: February 25, 5:00pm
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

Maidan is a 2014 documentary from the acclaimed Ukrainian director Sergei Loznitsa. From a protest to a movement to a full-scale revolution, the film chronicles the events that took place on Independence Square in Kyiv last winter. According to the New York Times, “Maidan is a film of scale and immediacy, finding artistry, for better or worse, in bearing witness.” One year after the overthrow of President Yanukovych, Carnegie invites you to join a screening ofMaidan and to a discussion reflecting on the dramatic events that led to the current crisis in relations between Russia and the West. The film will be shown in Ukrainian with English subtitles.

Following the screening, BuzzFeed’s Max Seddon and the Wall Street Journal’s Philip Shishkin—two reporters who have covered the conflict from eastern Ukraine over the past year—will discuss the film and the crisis. The discussion will be off the record. Light refreshments will be served.

February 26, 2015

The Future of Cybersecurity Innovation
Date: February 26, 10:00am
Location: Regis Hotel, 16^th and K Street NW, Washington DC

The US intelligence community has ranked cyberattacks as the No. 1 threat to national security – more than terrorist groups or weapons of mass destruction. But the military’s cyberwarriors fight these battles hunkered over computers, working with strings of code – a laborious process that requires advanced engineering skills. That’s why the Pentagon’s advanced research arm, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), is building a system to give the military instantaneous knowledge of network attacks by displaying them in real-time with rich graphics and 3-D visualizations.

Frank Pound, manager of the program, will join Passcode to give a demonstration of the in-progress system called Plan X. He’ll discuss how he’s building an “app store” to streamline cyber operations– which could fundamentally shift the way the military operates on the virtual battlefield. What will DARPA’s version of the Internet actually look like? How could technology like this help the military and the private sector in the future?

With one of DARPA’s most cutting-edge projects in mind, Passcode will then host a conversation about the broader themes of innovation in cybersecurity.

Book Talk: “Answering the Call: Popular Islamic Activism in Sadat’s Egypt”
Date: February 26, 12:30pm
Location: Georgetown University, ACMCU, ICC #270, 3700 O Street NW, Washington DC

In this talk, Professor Al-Arian will explore the causes for the re-emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood following its two-decade absence from Egyptian society. The decade of the 1970s was a vibrant era that saw the rise of a dynamic student movement in Egypt. Coupled with Sadat’s release of veteran Muslim Brotherhood figures from prison, the opportunity arose for a renewed Islamic movement to take root within an increasingly fraught political atmosphere. By the end of the Sadat era, the Muslim Brotherhood was reconstituted in large part due to the ability of the leadership to incorporate a broad segment of the student activist movement into its ranks. Professor Al-Arian will conclude by discussing the role that this generation has played in Egyptian society and politics in the decades since, including during the 2011 uprising and its aftermath.
Register here.

Unpacking the ISIS War Game: Preparing for Escalation
Date: February 26, 12:30pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15^th Street NW, 12^th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

The current US strategy to “degrade and ultimately destroy” ISIS has achieved important tactical successes, but Washington is still far from achieving its stated goals. Even more, the strategy has not yet been fully tested by ISIS. However, events on the ground over the past few months suggest that the likelihood of escalation on the part of ISIS is increasing. Conventional as well as terrorist attacks by ISIS in Libya, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Lebanon suggest that it may be only a matter of time before the movement attacks core US strategic interests in the region.

An off-the-record, high-level war game recently conducted at the Brent Scowcroft Center’s Middle East Peace and Security Initiative challenged US strategy by analyzing two hypothetical scenarios in which ISIS resorted to escalation. How can Washington and its allies and partners in the coalition better prepare for these contingencies?

Please join the Atlantic Council on Thursday, February 26 from 12:30 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. for a discussion on the key findings from the war game and the strategic implications of potential ISIS escalation for the US-led coalition.

Public Address by Her Excellency Ellen Johnson Sirleaf
Date: February 26, 1:30pm
Location: Hart Senate Office Building, Room 216, Washington DC

On February 26, Her Excellency Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, President of Liberia, will speak at an event hosted by U.S. Senator Chris Coons (D-Del.) and the U.S. Institute of Peace in Hart Senate Office Building. The speech will come during her first trip to Washington since Liberia’s declaration of a state of emergency over the Ebola outbreak last July.

President Sirleaf will offer her thanks to the American people for their support during the Ebola crisis, to Congress for authorizing funding to help stop the outbreak, to the Administration for its deployment to the region, and to aid organizations for going to the region to care for those infected. The President will also discuss the need for sustained investment in the region’s public health infrastructure in order to prevent future outbreaks.

The Rise of the Islamic State, the U.S. Military Campaign, and the Future of Iraq
Date: February 26, 2:00pm
Location: International Institute for Strategic Studies—U.S., 2121 K Street NW, Suite 801, Washington DC

The fall of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, to the Islamic State in June 2014, indicated that the country had entered another profound crisis that once again put its very survival in question. President Obama’s decision to launch an air campaign in support of the new Iraqi government indicated how serious the US government viewed the situation. However, in spite of the undoubted military threat that the Islamic State poses, their rise is a symptom of a much larger set of primarily political pathologies that have dogged the Iraqi state since 2003. This means Iraq cannot be stabilized through a military campaign alone. A sustainable Iraqi state, at peace with its own population and its neighboring states would entail the fundamental reworking of the political structures put in place after regime change. Professor Dodge will examine how this process could be started and the chances of it succeeding.

RSVP here.

Countering Violent Extremism in Pakistan: Opportunities and Obstacles for Civil Society
Date: February 26, 2:30pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 5^th Floor, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC

The December 16, 2014, school massacre in Peshawar is a sobering reminder of the still-potent threat of militancy in Pakistan. Encouragingly, nongovernmental organizations have been developing grassroots initiatives to counter violent extremism—from candlelight vigils to anti-Taliban protests. These promising efforts, however, have to this point not grown into a nationwide campaign. What does Pakistani civil society hope to achieve with its anti-extremism movement? What can be done—by Pakistan and the United States—to help strengthen Pakistani civil society in its efforts against violent extremism? And what role can or should foreign assistance play? This event, coming on the heels of the White House’s Summit to Counter Violent Extremism, marks the release of “A Strategic Plan for Empowering Pakistan’s Civil Society to Counter Violent Extremism,” published by WORDE, and will feature presentations by researchers and activists on the front lines of civil society’s anti-extremism efforts in Pakistan.

RSVP here.

Poland and the Transatlantic Security System
Date: February 26, 4:00pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, Voesar Conference Room, 1957 E Street NW, Suite 412, Washington DC

Since the outbreak of the current Ukraine crisis, Poland’s national security has deteriorated. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, Poland’s latest National Security Strategy of the Republic of Poland (adopted in November 2014) indicates that Poland is threatened with military attack and that Russia represents the main threat. For this reason, Poland has undertaken intensive actions to strengthen its national security. This talk will address the role of the Ukraine crisis in developing the transatlantic security system. It will provide a Polish perspective on U.S. actions in the ongoing crisis in the context of the three pillars of Poland’s security and defense policy: (1) building up the state’s own military resources and capabilities; (2) NATO membership and close relations with the USA; and (3) cooperation within the EU framework.

RSVP here.

A New U.S.-Cuba Policy: Did Cuba Win?
Date: February 26, 5:00pm
Location: Heritage Center at the Navy Memorial, 701 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC

President Obama’s surprise announcement in December of his intention to reestablish formal diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba has stirred vigorous debate.

Supporters justify the move by arguing that 50-plus years of diplomatic stalemate and sanctions have failed to bring freedom to the Cuban people. They believe it was past time for a new policy that would give Cubans greater exposure to the United States and lead to more liberalization on the island. Such a policy would also advance American interests in the Western Hemisphere more broadly given the unpopularity of U.S. sanctions against the Castro regime.

Opponents of the change argue that the Castro dictatorship has been handed a victory — formal recognition by the United States — in exchange for very little. Democratic opponents of the regime did not benefit, while the regime’s stranglehold on human freedom persists and the U.S. has relinquished key leverage for political change on the island.

On February 26, the McCain Institute will continue its Debate and Decision Series as leading experts tackle the question: A New U.S.-Cuba Policy: Did Cuba Win?

The Arab Spring@4–What Next?
Date: February 26, 6:30pm
Location: Project for Study of the 21^st Century (PS21), 1333 H Street NW, Washington DC

To celebrate the launch of its PS21 MIDEAST blog, the Project for Study of the 21st Century and Young Professionals in Foreign Policy bring you a discussion on a region in flux. Four years after the revolutions in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, the Middle East appears as stable as at any point in recent history. What went wrong, what might happen next and what, if anything, can the United States do to influence events?

The event will be on the record. Register here.

February 27, 2015

The U.S. Rebalance to Asia: The Political and Economic Roles of TPP in the Region
Date: February 27, 10:00am
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 6^th Floor, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC

In his latest State of the Union address, President Obama stressed the need for TPP to conclude successfully in order to keep the United States competitive in global markets. But as heated negotiations to conclude the world’s most ambitious trade deal continue, there is debate too about what exactly TPP will mean for broader economic stability and relations among Asian nations. Could TPP deepen regional cohesion among Asian nations and enhance political as well as economic stability in the region? Will TPP impact U.S. relations with TPP member countries and non-members, and if so, how? Join us in a discussion about the prospects for regional economic integration and how leadership in Asia may be influenced by TPP.

This event will be hosted together with the U.S.-Japan Research Institue (USJI)

RSVP here.

An Effective P5+1 Nuclear Deal with Iran and the Role of Congress
Date: February 27, 1:00pm
Location: National Press Club, First Amendment Lounge, 529 14^th Street NW, 13^th Floor, Washington DC

Negotiators from the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and Iran are racing to try to conclude a political framework agreement for a comprehensive, long-term nuclear deal to block Iran’s potential pathways to nuclear weapons by the end of March, with technical details on a final deal to be ironed out by the end of June.

Over the past year, Iran and the P5+1 have made significant progress on long-term solutions on several challenging issues. Following the most recent round of high-level talks, the two sides reportedly made progress on key remaining issues.

At the same time, key members of Congress are threatening to advance new Iran sanctions legislation and set unrealistic requirements for a nuclear deal. Also, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee says he will introduce legislation this month that would give Congress the opportunity to vote to disapprove or approve a comprehensive nuclear agreement once and if it is completed. Both proposals have drawn a veto threat from the Obama administration.

The Arms Control Association will host a special press briefing featuring a former member of the U.S. negotiating team, a former professional staff member of the House intelligence committee, and Arms Control Association experts on the status of the negotiations, the likely outlines of a comprehensive agreement, and the appropriate role for Congress.

RSVP here.

There is a Pattern Here: The Case to Integrate Environmental Security into Homeland Security Strategy

February 19, 2015February 18, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in News

By Jonathon Marioneaux

Recent reports of extreme weather related events, massive industrial catastrophes with hazardous materials, and critical resource shortages have begun to highlight the need to incorporate climate change as part of the national security strategy and its effects on emergency preparedness. In their article, Dr. Ramsay and Dr. O’Sullivan argue that changing climate and human influences are becoming more important to homeland security and must be increasingly factored into national and international security assessments. The authors argue that the term ‘Environmental Security’ should be placed among homeland security factors because of its immense reach and potential impact upon the nation and its infrastructure. However, the role of environmental security is not simply localized to a region or country; the global impact of climate change, resource scarcity, and certain industrial disasters have global impacts that will disproportionately affect less developed nations who are not able to cope as quickly or efficiently. Finally, these impacts must be incorporated into strategic planning more effectively in order to cope with future global security challenges.

The authors begin by laying out the factors that might impact regional security such as rising sea levels, increased storm intensity, increased droughts and floods, and increased spread of disease and explain why they are a security threat. For example, the authors state that global sea level rise has increased from 0.02 inches per year from 1950 to 2009, however it has increased 0.08 inches per year along the Atlantic Coast. This is a security concern as large numbers of people and pieces of critical infrastructure are located in close proximity to coastlines with little to no protection. To provide further evidence, hurricane Sandy smashed into the Northeast and the above discussed increased sea level helped make it the most expensive natural disaster in modern history. A second example is drought that has plagued the Southeast and Western parts of the nation pushing water resources to record lows. The result has been increased State and Municipal tensions over increasingly scarce water supplies in regions with rapidly growing populations. The resulting experiences have shown the need to increase local, regional, and federal preparedness to weather related disasters, which will continue to worsen in the future.

The authors also explain why industrial accidents and resource shortages should be factored into the national security equation. Certain industrial accidents—such as the BP New Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico—have the power to influence the economy and, by extension, the physical security of regions or nations by rendering an area inhabitable or economically unsustainable. Increased resource scarcity has already been identified as a factor for political instability and will continue to be so in the future. The authors referenced food scarcity that triggered some Arab Spring revolutions in certain Middle Eastern countries and pushed existing politicians from power and installed new regimes. Finally, increasing environmental concerns have the potential to lead to increasing levels of regional instability and failed states that will only be exacerbated by continuing climate change.

Some steps are already being taken to address these issues such as the Quadrennial Defense Review and intelligence assessments; however more still needs to be done to fully implement environmental security into the national security apparatus. Recent events have shown that increasing environmental security is imperative to increasing both national and international security because global climate changes are not limited by borders and neither are the outcomes.

Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Ramsay, J., & O’Sullivan, T. (2013). There’s a Pattern Here: The Case to Integrate Environmental Security into Homeland Security Strategy. Homeland Security Affairs, 9(6).

Is the Islamic State the Biggest Threat Facing the U.S.?

February 18, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in News

By Erik Goepner

While the situation on the ground today remains largely unchanged to that of October last year, Americans assessing the IS threat as extremely important or critical has jumped from 36% to 84%. Might their grotesque killings and the free media advertising they receive in response explain much of the difference in threat perceptions?

Looking at the numbers, since September 10, 2001 three thousand forty-eight people have been killed by terrorists in America’s borders. If you exclude 9/11, that number drops to 51. In the 14 years before 9/11, 223 lost their lives at the hands of terrorists in the homeland.[1]

Though precisely determining the threat posed by the Islamic State is impossible, we can be more precise in defining why the threat concerns us. For many, the concern is death, more specifically a horrific death that comes as a surprise and leaves its victim feeling powerless. There is, however, no concern that the Islamic State could one day invade the U.S. or otherwise pretend to have a military force even remotely comparable to ours. They will always be Pop Warner to America’s Super Bowl winner. In the end, the concern is death.

One way, then, to compare the threat posed by the Islamic State with other threats is to look at what kills Americans. Including 9/11 and all terrorist attacks within the homeland since, an average of 234 lives have been lost per year. During the same time period, approximately 16,000 Americans have been murdered each year, 34,000 took their own lives, and more than 500,000 died annually from cancer. If you lengthen the timeframe to fifty years, the likelihood of being killed by terrorists in America roughly equates to the likelihood of being killed by a lightning strike or an allergic reaction to peanuts.[2]

Looking at the broader geo-political landscape provides another way to help place the threat of IS within the range of threats facing America. Perhaps Iran sits atop that list. On the Department of State’s list as a state sponsor of terrorism since 1984, their latest report, from 2013, notes Iran has “increased its presence in Africa and attempted to smuggle arms to Houthi separatists in Yemen.” These are the same separatists who recently overthrew the Yemeni government. Additionally, Iran is pursuing a nuclear program, peaceful or otherwise. Russia presents another potential threat. In 2008, they invaded Georgia and in 2014 they annexed portions of Ukraine. Might a NATO country be next, such as Latvia, Estonia, or Lithuania? Other potential threats include China as it asserts its presence in the South China Sea and elsewhere, North Korea, or even America’s rising debt which may increasingly constrain future U.S. options.

Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons

[1] See UMD’s Global Terrorism Database.
[2] John Mueller, Overblown, see “The Limited Destructiveness of Terrorism” chapter.

Week in DC: Events

February 15, 2015July 15, 2016 by juliadhomstad, posted in Events, Week In DC

February 17, 2015

Asia Conference: China in the Middle East
Date: February 17, 9:00am
Location: United States Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington DC

Some regional leaders and scholars express concern about the implications of greater Chinese influence while others argue for a greater Chinese contribution to regional stability. China could leverage its significant soft power to help resolve conflicts, for example. A recent Pew global poll found that China’s favorability rating in the region was higher than that of the United States. Beijing also maintains working relationships with a number of important governments that the United States shuns, such as Syria and Iran, and might consider contributing to the campaign to degrade and destroy ISIS in Iraq and Syria, given its own interests in combating Islamic terrorism.

This conference on China in the Middle East will evaluate China’s nascent regional role, implications for regional security, the reactions of other regional actors, and the impact on U.S. policy. Join the conversation on Twitter with #ChinaMidEast.

The conference is co-sponsored by the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Georgetown University Center for Security Studies, and made possible in part through the generosity of the Philip and Patricia Bilden Asian Security Studies Fund. (PDF Agenda)

RSVP here.

America’s Role in the World
Date: February 17, 11:30am
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15^th Street NW, 12^th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

The United States faces unprecedented international challenges that together pose significant risks to global security and prosperity. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s coercive actions in the western Pacific, ISIS’ broadening reign of terror, and other simmering crises all point to the need for reinvigorated US and transatlantic leadership in the world. The demand for vigorous and sustained leadership across all of these fronts requires an effective articulation of a strategic vision, especially on America’s purposes and how it should seek to exercise its role in the world.

On February 17, the Atlantic Council will formally launch its new Strategy Initiative through the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security. The Council is undertaking efforts to help the United States work with its closest allies and partners to lead in an increasingly complex and turbulent world. These projects will address strategic issues related to US leadership in the world and help catalyze a national debate on American strategy.

Former United States National Security Advisor General James L. Jones, Jr., USMC (Ret.) will provide keynote addresses on the importance of defining, articulating, and assessing America’s role in the world. The keynote address will be followed by a discussion with The Hon. James N. Miller and Mr. Stephen E. Biegun, moderated by Atlantic Council President and CEO Mr. Frederick Kempe. The discussants will address the range of views on America’s role in the world within the Democrat and Republican parties.

Watch live online here or register here to attend in person.

Conflict in Ukraine
Date: February 17, 12:00pm
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

The current conflict in Ukraine has spawned the most serious crisis between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War. It has undermined European security, raised questions about NATO’s future, and put an end to one of the most ambitious projects of U.S. foreign policy—building a partnership with Russia. It also threatens to undermine U.S. diplomatic efforts on issues ranging from terrorism to nuclear proliferation. And in the absence of direct negotiations, each side is betting that political and economic pressure will force the other to blink first. Caught in this dangerous standoff, the West cannot afford to lose sight of the importance of stable relations with Russia. In Conflict in Ukraine, Rajan Menon and Eugene Rumer put the conflict in historical perspective by examining the evolution of the crisis and assessing its implications both for Ukraine and for Russia’s relations with the West.

Please join us for a conversation with the book’s authors, moderated by David Hoffman. Conflict in Ukraine will be available to purchase, and a book signing will take place at the conclusion of the event. Lunch will be served.

Countering Violent Extremism: What to Expect From the White House Summit
Date: February 17, 3:30pm
Location: The National Press Club, 529 14^th Street NW, 13^th Floor, Washington DC

Over a decade ago, the 9/11 Commission Report warned that, to counter terrorism, “our strategy must match our means to two ends: dismantling the al Qaeda network and prevailing in the longer term over the ideology that gives rise to Islamist terrorism.” The recent spate of terrorist attacks in Ottawa, Sydney, Peshawar and Paris, as well as the Islamic State’s brutal execution of several hostages, make clear that the ideology that spawned the 9/11 attacks continues to incite violence today.

To address this issue, the White House is hosting a Summit on Countering Violent Extremism. Join us for a preview of the summit and a discussion of what more can be done to prevent the spread of violent extremism.
Register here.

The Future of the Fight Against ISIL
Date: February 17, 4:00pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15^th Street NW, 12^th Floor, West Tower

Please join the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security for a special event with General John Allen, USMC (Ret.), the Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, to discuss what may lie ahead in the US-led fight against the Islamist group that straddles Iraqi and Syrian territory.

Ever since General Allen’s appointment in September, he has sought to “help build and sustain the coalition so it can operate across multiple lines of effort in order to degrade and ultimately destroy ISIL.” The coalition of over sixty countries currently contributes in “various capacities…in Iraq, the region, and beyond,” to achieve the stated strategy. How will the Coalition sustain the fight against the terrorist group? What role will the United States play as the Coalition broadens and deepens its efforts? Can the fight be ultimately won? And if so, how does the Coalition define success? To answer these and other questions, General Allen will join Atlantic Council President and CEO Fred Kempe on stage. This event will be on the record and open to press.

General John Allen is the Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL. He was appointed September 16, 2014 by President Barack Obama. Allen is a retired US Marine four-star General and former Commander of the NATO International Security Assistance Force and US Forces in Afghanistan from July 2011 to February 2013. Upon his retirement from the US Marine Corps, he was appointed as the Senior Adviser to the Secretary of Defense on Middle East Security.
Register here to attend in person or watch live online here.

February 18, 2015

Yemen and Libya: The Middle East’s Other Civil Wars
Date: February 18, 9:00am
Location: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Falk Auditorium, Washington DC

The conflicts raging in Syria and Iraq consume most of Washington and the international community’s attention, but civil wars in Yemen and Libya have brought both countries near total collapse. Houthi rebels continue to gain ground in Yemen and the security situation continues to deteriorate in Libya. Thousands have died, and terrorist groups are gaining strength. The United States and its allies have not stemmed this instability even as the violence spreads.

On February 18, the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host a panel discussion examining the escalating violence in Yemen and Libya. Bringing together a panel of experts on Yemen, Libya and the neighboring region, the conversation will raise questions about what can be done to stem the violence and what counterterrorism implementations can be made.

After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.

The Struggle for Iraq’s Future: Is it a Lost Cause?
Date: February 18, 9:00am
Location: American Enterprise Institute, 1150 17^th Street NW, Washington DC

Reports on Iraq in recent months have been less than encouraging; the advance of ISIS, sectarian violence, and falling oil prices are just a few problems Baghdad faces today. But what exactly is happening on the ground? Is the situation in Iraq as grim as some report?

We welcome you to join AEI and the Institute for the Study of War for an event featuring experts who have just returned from meetings with government and military officials in Iraq. Panelists will provide their assessment of the situation and discuss whether there is an opportunity for the United States to revise its existing policy toward Iraq.

The Escalating Shi’a-Sunni Conflict: Assessing Arab Public Attitudes
Date: February 18, 9:30am
Location: The Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, 8^th Floor, Washington DC

Sectarianism has been a driving force of conflict in the Middle East for many years. From Iraq to Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain, conflict and confrontations between Shi’a and Sunni Muslims are on the rise. The emergence of extremist groups such as Al Nusra Front and the Islamic State has further deepened this divide. Each of these groups claims to offer the correct interpretation of Islam. In this tense climate, how do Shi’a and Sunni Muslims in the Arab world view each other?

The panelists will discuss the differences in beliefs and practices between the Shi’a and Sunnis globally and the extent to which members of each group accept the other as “Muslims.” The discussion will also examine differences in political opinions between the Shi’a and Sunnis.

Part of the conversation will present findings on religious tolerance, views toward the current governments, and the role religion should play in politics and international relations based on polling in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon.

RSVP here.

Russia/Eurasia Forum: Fiona Hill
Date: February 18, 12:30pm
Location: Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, The Rome Building, Room 535, 1740 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

Join the European and Eurasian Studies program for a discussion with Fiona Hill, director of the Center on the United States and Europe and senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, as she discusses the newest edition of her book (co-authored with Clifford Gaddy), “Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin.”

RSVP here.

Pakistan’s Interior Minister on New Plans to Counter Terrorism
Date: February 18, 2:00pm
Location: United States Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington DC

Since the Peshawar school attack, which killed more than 150 people, including 134 children, the Pakistani government has pledged to make this the turning point, targeting terrorists of all types. A number of major steps have already been taken.

The country’s federal interior ministry, which has responsibility for addressing domestic terrorism, last year produced Pakistan’s first National Internal Security Policy. The new National Action Plan sets out further ambitious goals to curtail terrorist financing; coordinate intelligence sharing across federal, provincial, and military police and security agencies; and create dedicated counterterrorism forces, among other steps.

Will Pakistan be able to act upon these policy decisions, and will it be able to turn the corner in this long and bloody fight against terrorism? Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan will assess Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts and the challenges ahead.

RSVP here.

Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin (and Abroad)
Date: February 18, 2:30pm
Location: Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

With recent events in Ukraine and beyond, many policymakers and foreign policy analysts are asking what motivates Russian President Vladimir Putin. What shapes his policy decisions and how he views the outside world? Most importantly, officials in Washington and European capitals are left asking what Putin wants and how far is he willing to go. The great lesson of the outbreak of World War I in 1914 was the danger of misreading the statements, actions, and intentions of the adversary. Today, Vladimir Putin has become the greatest challenge to European security and the global world order in decades. Russia’s 8,000 nuclear weapons underscore the huge risks of not understanding who Putin is and what his aspirations are for himself and the people of Russia.

On February 18, the Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) at Brookings will host a discussion with Fiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy, authors of the new and expanded edition of Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin (Brookings Press, 2015). The authors will explore Putin’s motivations and methods and will dispel potentially dangerous misconceptions about Putin.

Thomas Wright, director of the Project on International Order and Strategy at Brookings will provide introductory remarks. Jill Dougherty, public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, will moderate the discussion. After the program, the authors will take audience questions and will be available to sign books following the event. Join the conversation on Twitter at #MrPutin.

Breaking the Cyber Information Sharing Logjam
Date: February 18, 3:00pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15^th Street NW, 12^th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

Cybersecurity information-sharing has been stuck for years. Anything more than narrow gains have proven elusive. However, the community involved in these efforts might be at the beginning of a new phase of cooperation. Not only is Congress examining new legislation, but the White House has placed information-sharing on the top of the agenda for securing cyberspace.

Join the Atlantic Council’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative on February 18 from 3:00 p.m. – 4:30 p.m. for a moderated discussion on challenges and solutions for information-sharing, the Administration’s recent proposals for better practices between the private sector and government, and goal-directed approaches to sharing.

The event will be accompanied by the release of a report, which examines the challenges of information-sharing, the Administration’s emerging proposals, along with solutions to breaking the current logjam.

February 19, 2015

Examining the Syrian Perspectives on Local Ceasefires and Reconciliation Initiatives
Date: February 19, 12:00pm
Location: Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave NW, Rome Building Auditorium, Washington DC

In the year since the Geneva II talks failed to deliver any discernible progress towards a resolution of the conflict, the humanitarian and security situation in Syria has further deteriorated. With a recalcitrant regime, growing extremism, and a faltering moderate opposition, support among Syrians for a broad-based, internationally negotiated settlement to the crisis has diminished significantly. Increasingly, Syrians only envision the conflict ending once their own side prevails. However, if there are any openings for negotiations, Syrians of all political persuasions and ethno-religious backgrounds tend to favor locally-based conflict resolution initiatives that could eventually lead to a Syrian-led national resolution.

On February 19th at noon, the Syria Justice and Accountability Centre (SJAC) and the Conflict Management Program at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) invite you to attend the launch of a new report detailing Syrian perspectives on locally-based conflict resolution initiatives at the SAIS campus in Washington, D.C. “Maybe We Can Reach a Solution”: Syrian Perspectives on the Conflict and Local Initiatives for Peace, Justice, and Reconciliation marks the second phase of a comprehensive research initiative launched by SJAC to investigate the opinions of a diverse group of Syrians on the transitional justice process. It supplements the findings of last year’s He Who Did Wrong Should Be Accountable: Syrian Perspectives on Transitional Justice report, and could shed valuable light on proposals such as the Aleppo ceasefire plan sponsored by UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan De Mistura.

An accompanying panel discussion will highlight the opinions of ordinary Syrians regarding locally-brokered ceasefire and reconciliation efforts while providing an in-depth analysis of Syrian perspectives on conflict resolution since the collapse of Geneva II. Copies of “Maybe We Can Reach a Solution” will be available for attendees upon conclusion of the event.

RSVP here.

The Trade-Security Nexus: Key Regulatory Cooperation Issues for 2015
Date: February 19, 2:30pm
Location: The Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, 8^th Floor, Washington DC

Governments increasingly see an opportunity — and an imperative — to advance national security and economic competitiveness as complementary goals. In its new National Security Strategy, the Obama administration pledges to “make it easier for businesses of all sizes to expand their reach” through a range of regulatory cooperation initiatives pursued with private sector and international stakeholders. Join us for a discussion on current efforts and potential next steps to make good on that pledge, both in North America and through agreements such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP) and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

RSVP here.

Je Suis Charlie? Free Expression in the Aftermath of Paris
Date: February 19, 6:30pm
Location: New York University, Abramson Family Auditorium, 1307 L Street NW, Washington DC

On January 7, 2015 an attack on the Charlie Hebdo headquarters in Paris led to the death of twelve people. Following the attack, people from around the world united in defense of free speech, the foundation of democracy. The actions of a few have ignited discussions about how free societies can share different points of views, without fear of violence. Recently, in the United States, we have seen similar fractures in Ferguson and New York. How can integrated societies work through difference of opinions without resorting to violence, while ensuring the individual’s right to express their point-of-view. Are there limitations to freedom of speech?

RSVP here.

February 20, 2015

Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: Lessons Learned
Date: February 20, 12:00pm
Location: Center for Human Rights and Humanitarian Law, 4801 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

Join the Center for Human Rights & Humanitarian Law for a panel discussion with the Honorable Michael Kirby and Ms. Sonja Biserko, esteemed members of the UN Commission of Inquiry on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Appointed to serve on the Commission by the UN Human Rights Council in March 2013, Mr. Kirby and Ms. Biserko, along with their colleague Mr. Marzuki Darusman, investigated the systematic, widespread, and grave violations of human rights in North Korea, with a view to ensuring full accountability. The historic report, which was presented to the UN Human Rights Council in March 2014, documents wide-ranging and ongoing crimes against humanity.

Please join us in welcoming members of the Commission for a discussion about lessons learned based on their ground-breaking findings.

Pandora Report 2.15.15

February 15, 2015February 15, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in Pandora Report

It’s the last holiday weekend before the summer and its too cold to go outside! Don’t worry, we’ve got some good reading while you’re staying warm inside: antibiotic resistance, U.S. Troops leaving West Africa, a new vaccine for polio and LOTS of stories you may have missed.

Enjoy your Monday holiday and have a safe and healthy week!

Rivers Can Be a Source of Antibiotic Resistance

As the U.S. Government increases its funding to fight growing antibiotic resistance, a study coming out of the University of Warwick’s School for Life Sciences and the University of Exeter Medical School points to rivers and streams as a major source of antibiotic resistance in the environment. The study of the Thames River found that greater numbers of resistant bacteria existed close to some wastewater treatment plants and that these plants are likely “to be responsible for at least half of the increase observed.”

R&D Magazine—“The team also found that several other factors affected the prevalence of antibiotic resistance, such as changes in rainfall and land cover. For example, heavy rainfall at a point surrounded by grassland raised resistance levels; whereas a heavy rainfall at a point surrounded by woodland reduced the levels seen.”

U.S. Bringing Home Almost All Troops Sent to Africa in Ebola Crisis

The U.S. military is bringing home nearly all troops that were sent to West Africa 10 months ago in order to fight the Ebola outbreak. This withdrawal comes at a time where 700 homes in Sierra Leone were put under quarantine after a new case was diagnosed in Freetown. Quarantine seems like a smart move, since researchers have now confirmed that the virus can remain contagious on a dead body for up to a week. Despite troops leaving, testing has begun in Liberia for two potential vaccine candidates.

CNN—“[Pentagon press secretary Rear Adm. John] Kirby said about 100 military service members will remain in West Africa to support the 10,000 civilian responders who remain. These service members will “build on a strong military partnership with the Armed Forces of Liberia to enhance their Ebola response efforts and provide disaster response training to the government of Liberia,” he said.”

Synthetic Vaccine Sought to Finally Eradicate Polio

While, after six months of no new cases, Africa is close to wiping out wild polio, a team of international scientists are working to create a wholly artificial vaccine to combat the disease. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Health Organization are providing a $647,000 grant to create an entirely synthetic approach that will address shortcomings in the existing vaccine. This new vaccine would be entirely virus free.

BBC—“…the existing oral vaccine uses a weakened version of the virus as its stimulus to provoke a response and protection in the patient. And in just a few particular individuals, this can set up an infection in the gut that then enables a reactivated virus to pass out of the body and spread to other, unvaccinated people.

But if the virus particle has no genetic machinery this transmission route is closed, and the World Health Organization and the Gates Foundation is to fund the scientists to engineer just such particle for use as a replacement vaccine.”

Stories You May Have Missed

Russian nuclear missile forces conducting large-scale exercises across the country days before the ceasefire with Ukraine begins…let’s hope those aren’t related in any way.
First honey, now turtles. An infant in Ireland contracted the first case of Type E Botulism originating from the terrapins his parents kept as pets.
Population growth in Colorado partially stemmed from TB patients flocking to the state to take advantage of the dry climate.
How amazing is this? In 2009, two professors at the University of Minnesota prepared a report that suggested Disneyland could be a potential amplifier for infectious disease.
Flooding in Mozambique has caused a massive cholera outbreak, resulting in 1,702 cases and 19 deaths. Overall, the flooding has killed 158 with more than 160,000 being adversely affected.
The story last week about the NYC subway, there is (at least) one rebuttal claiming the story was a little TOO sensational. Second Opinion: there is no plague on the NYC subway.
What’s going on with MERS-CoV? Saudi Arabia has reported two more cases and the WHO says inadequate infection control measures may be to blame for the continuing cases.
What are the limits of Synthetic Biology? The Council on Foreign Relations has some ideas.
Are you worried about the zombie apocalypse? Don’t worry. The Los Alamos National Laboratory team can map all kinds of viral outbreaks with their new Biosurveillance Gateway Website.

Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons

What threat does the Islamic State pose to America?

February 11, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in News

By Erik Goepner

One way to assess the threat that IS poses to America is to see what the National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) says. To date, NTAS has issued no alerts regarding the terrorist threat from IS. Back in 2011, NTAS replaced DHS’ memorable color-coded system. It is also worth noting that in those intervening years, the NTS has apparently not issued any alerts about terrorist threats against the homeland.

Statements by government officials provide another way to assess the threat, and they do not appear to suggest IS presents a significant threat to America. The President’s National Security Strategy (NSS), published last week, notes that “the threat of catastrophic attacks against our homeland by terrorists has diminished but still persists.” The NSS goes on to refer to “an array of terrorist threats.” As for IS in particular, the NSS mentions them as one of several “regionally focused and globally connected groups” that “could” pose a threat to the homeland.

Rolling out the new NSS at the Brookings Institution last Friday, the National Security Advisor appeared concerned that threat concerns were being unnecessarily inflated by some. Ms. Rice cautioned, “We cannot afford to be buffeted by alarmism and an instantaneous news cycle,” as she characterized the threats as not existential.

Another estimate comes from the Department of Homeland Security Deputy Assistant Secretary for Counterterrorism Policy. This past December, he testified before a House subcommittee hearing on ISIS. His assessment? “At present, DHS is unaware of any specific, credible threat to the U.S. Homeland from ISIL.”

If Americans’ perception of the threat posed by the Islamic State substantially differs from the actual threat, our unconscious biases may have something to do with it. Ms. Rice potentially alluded to one—the availability bias—when she cautioned against alarmism and the instantaneous news cycle. The availability bias suggests people estimate the likelihood of an event based on how easily they can imagine it or remember a past occurrence. Since the sensational, yet uncommon, event is often of greater interest to the media, the public may hear more about unlikely events than they do common ones. In response, people overestimate the likelihood of rare events while underestimating the probability of common ones.[1]

Additionally, people tend to overstate threats they dread, even if the evidence indicates otherwise. The Islamic State’s gruesome videos of beheadings and the recent burning alive of the Jordanian pilot effectively evoke dread in many.

Potential biases notwithstanding, those responsible for assessing the threat and keeping the homeland safe indicate that the Islamic State could pose a threat to us, but at this time, IS does not pose a specific, credible or imminent threat.

Image Credit: The Knight Foundation

[1] See, for example, Morgan’s “Risk Assessment and Management.”

Pandora Report 2.7.15

February 7, 2015February 7, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in Pandora Report

Whatta week, right?! Let’s jump right in to the stories. We’ve got the Subway, flu forecasting, American chemical weapons, and stories you may have missed.

Have a great weekend and a safe and healthy week!

A Close Look at the Germs Crawling Around the Subway

Every single day I ride the metro to work, and every single day, the first thing I do when I get to the office is wash my hands. And, really, that’s what everyone should be doing. A research team from the Weill Cornell Medical College spent the summer of 2013 swabbing turnstiles, subway poles, kiosks, benches, and other “human penetrated surfaces” in all 466 NYC subway stations.

Gothamist—“And they found quite a few signs of life—15,152 types of DNA, in fact—nearly half of which they identified as bacteria. Shocking!

[They] did manage to find some scary stuff, with E. coli, Staphylococcus aureus (skin infections, respiratory disease and food poisoning), Bacillus anthracis (anthrax), and even Yersinia pestis, which is associated with the bubonic plague, popping up in some swabs. Nearly all the stations harbored an antibiotic resistant bacteria called Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, one that often causes respiratory infections in hospitals.”

Forecasts May Soon Predict Flu Patterns

What if we could predict the flu like we predict the weather? That is what teams of researchers are looking at; devising and testing methods to predict the start, peak, and end of flu season. How will they do this? By combining data from the present with knowledge of past patterns to project what might happen in the future.

The Boston Globe—“If the CDC had a flu-season preview in hand, the agency could better time messages on use of vaccines and flu-fighting drugs.

Hospitals could plan staffing for patient surges or make sure key personnel are not on vacation when it appears the epidemic will probably peak. Parents could even take flu forecasts into account in scheduling birthday parties and play dates.”

U.S. to Destroy Largest Remaining Chemical Weapons Cache

Syria isn’t the only country working on destruction of its chemical weapons cache. The Pueblo Chemical Depot, in Southern Colorado, will begin neutralization of 2,600 tons of aging mustard agent in March. This action moves towards American compliance with a 1997 treaty that banned all chemical weapons.

USA Today—“‘The start of Pueblo is an enormous step forward to a world free of chemical weapons,” said Paul Walker, who has tracked chemical warfare for more than 20 years, first as a U.S. House of Representatives staffer and currently with Green Cross International, which advocates on issues of security, poverty and the environment.”

Stories You May Have Missed

While the IMF granted Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone debt relief to the tune of $100 million, roughly $1.8 billion raised to fight Ebola never made it to the hard hit countries. And numbers for new cases of Ebola rose this week for the first time in 2015. How? According to UN officials secret burials are a possible culprit.
This week coverage of the measles outbreak and anti-vaccine groups reached an absolute fever pitch—it was too many stories to even wade through! However, I found an interesting one that talked about what Ben Franklin thought of vaccines and another that asked how to go about dealing with anti-vaxxers.
Avian influenza continues to be in the news with the WHO announcing a human case in Canada and additional HPAI strains in California, Oregon, and Washington.

Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons

GMU Biodefense Published

February 4, 2015April 6, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in Media Notes, Program News

Dr. Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley, Associate Professor in the George Mason Graduate Program in Biodefense, has published a new book, Barriers to Bioweapons: The Challenges of Expertise and Organization for Weapons Development.

The New Scientist has reviewed it, and this is just one of the wonderful things they had to say:

Her fascinating book, Barriers to Bioweapons, also shows that anyone wanting to develop biological weapons faces a raft of other difficulties. Of the five main bioweapons programmes to date, their key feature has been their failures, not their successes. In a forensic and compelling analysis, she describes how the Soviet Union, the US, South Africa and the Japanese terrorist group Aum Shinrikyo, all fell well short, despite spending billions of dollars over decades

Click here to read the whole review or click here to purchase the book online.

Spring 2015 Biodefense Policy Seminar Line Up

February 4, 2015April 6, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in Biodefense Policy Seminar, Events

The Biodefense Policy Seminars are monthly talks focused on biodefense and biosecurity broadly conceived. Free and open to the public, they feature leading figures within the academic, security, industry, and policy fields. Launched in the Spring of this year, the Seminars have been a tremendous success. Our Fall lineup features leaders from across the government and academic sectors, including Mahdi al-Jewari of the Iraq National Monitoring Authority, Dr. David Christian Hassell of the Department of Defense, and Dr. Gary Ackerman of the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START).

Spring 2015 Biodefense Policy Seminars

February Seminar: Global Biorisk Management: The View from Iraq
Speaker: Mahdi al-Jewari, Head, Biology Department, Iraq National Monitoring Authority, Iraq Ministry of Science and Technology
Date: Thursday, February 19, 2015
Time: 6:00 – 7:30pm; complimentary food will be served at 5:30pm
Location: Merten Hall 1204, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA

Mr. al-Jewari currently serves as a Visiting Research Fellow in the Biodefense Program at George Mason University where he is conducting research on biorisk management policy and practice. He is on leave from the Iraqi National Monitoring Authority in the Ministry of Science and Technology where he is head of the Biological Department. The Iraqi National Monitoring Authority is responsible for overseeing Iraq’s implementation of its obligations under the Biological Weapons Convention and UN Security Council Resolution 1540. Mr. al-Jewari has served as the head of the Iraqi delegation to several BWC meetings. Mr. al-Jewari is the Ministry of Science and Technology’s representative to the National Biorisk Management Committee, an interagency effort to develop a comprehensive biosafety and biosecurity system for Iraq. Mr. Al-Jewari also serves as an expert for the UN Secretary-General’s mechanism for the investigation of alleged uses of chemical and biological weapons.

March Seminar: Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction – An Integrated Layered Approach
Speaker: Dr. David Christian Hassell, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Chemical and Biological Defense, Department of Defense
Date: Thursday, March 26, 2015
Time: 6:00 – 7:30pm; complimentary food will be served at 5:30pm
Location: The Hub Meeting Room 5, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA

Dr. David Christian “Chris” Hassell was appointed Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Chemical and Biological Defense in the Department of Defense in 2014. From 2008 until 2014, he served as an Assistant Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Director of the FBI Laboratory. During his tenure, he led major efforts to expand the Laboratory’s role in national security and intelligence, including the Terrorist Explosive Device Analytical Center (TEDAC) and other technical areas related to weapons of mass destruction. In addition, he strengthened and streamlined FBI programs in traditional forensics, particularly in such rapidly evolving areas as DNA, chemistry and the use of instrumentation to augment pattern-based forensic techniques (e.g., fingerprints, firearms, and documents). He also led many engagements with international counterparts, with focus on enhancing counterterrorism interactions with “Five-Eyes” partners, as well as new technical collaborations in Asia, Latin America and with such key multilateral groups as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and INTERPOL.

Dr. Hassell joined the Bureau from the Oklahoma State University Multispectral Laboratories, where he led Research, Development, Testing and Evaluation. He previously served as Assistant Vice President for Science and Technology at Applied Marine Technologies Incorporated. Prior to that position, Dr. Hassell led programs in analytical chemistry, instrumentation development, and nuclear weapons forensics at Los Alamos National Laboratory. During this time, he also served as a subject matter expert for chemical and biological weapons with the Iraq Survey Group in Baghdad. Earlier in his career, Dr. Hassell was a Senior Research Chemist at DuPont, developing online analytical instrumentation for chemical and bioprocess facilities for both research and manufacturing.

Dr. Hassell received his PhD in analytical chemistry from the University of Texas at Austin. He is a Fellow of the Society for Applied Spectroscopy and a member of the American Chemical Society and the International Association of Chiefs of Police.

April Seminar: Unconventional Methods for Assessing Unconventional Threats
Speaker: Dr. Gary Ackerman, Director, Unconventional Weapons and Technology Division, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)
Speaker: Date: Thursday, April 16, 2014
Time: 6:00 – 7:30pm; complimentary food will be served at 5:30pm
Location: Merten Hall 1202, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA

Dr. Gary Ackerman is the Director of the Unconventional Weapons and Technology Division at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). Prior to taking up his current position, he was Research Director and Special Projects Director at START and before that the Director of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism Research Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California. His research encompasses various areas relating to terrorism and counterterrorism, including terrorist threat assessment, radicalization, terrorist technologies and motivations for using chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons, and the modeling and simulation of terrorist behavior. He is the co-editor of Jihadists and Weapons of Mass Destruction (CRC Press, 2009), author of several articles on CBRN terrorism and has testified on terrorist motivations for using nuclear weapons before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security. Dr. Ackerman received an M.A. in International Relations from Yale University and a Ph.D. in War Studies from King’s College London.

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