The Pandora Report 1.3.13

by Siddha Hover, posted in Pandora Report

The first Pandora Report of the new year, and it’s (unsurprisingly) flu heavy. Highlights include H1N1 attacking the young, new MERS-CoV cases, H7N9 in Taiwan, H5N1 in China, and the gain-of-function debate (so more H5N1). Happy Friday!

Notice to Clinicians: Early Reports of pH1N1-Associated Illnesses for the 2013-14 Influenza Season
The CDC has a health alert out, detailing the tendency of this season’s predominant flu strain (which, as we’ve said before, looks like its going to be H1N1) to disproportionately affect the young. This is possibly because the elder amongst us are more resilient, due to cross-reactive immunity – they’ve been around longer, which means there’s a greater chance they have been exposed to similar viruses. The upshot is if you’re young and healthy, get a flu shot.

CDC – “From November through December 2013, CDC has received a number of reports of severe respiratory illness among young and middle-aged adults, many of whom were infected with influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 (pH1N1) virus. Multiple pH1N1-associated hospitalizations, including many requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and some fatalities have been reported. The pH1N1 virus that emerged in 2009 caused more illness in children and young adults, compared to older adults, although severe illness was seen in all age groups. While it is not possible to predict which influenza viruses will predominate during the entire 2013-14 influenza season, pH1N1 has been the predominant circulating virus so far. For the 2013-14 season, if pH1N1 virus continues to circulate widely, illness that disproportionately affects young and middle-aged adults may occur.”

Six new cases of MERS virus hit Saudi Arabia, UAE
The WHO has reported six new cases of MERS-CoV. Of the six, five are Saudi nationals, with one case in the United Arab Emirates. Three of the cases, including one involving a wife tending to an ill husband, are reportedly asymptomatic. Ages of the new patients range from 59 to 73 years old, with the latter succumbing to the virus. The new cases bring the global total to 176, with 74 deaths. There is still no substantive information on the virus’ source, transmission, or vector. Sadly, “it might be camels” remains our most conclusive evidence to date – which is not to impugn the work of the scientists involved, which has been fastidious, but rather to bemoan the complexity of the virus itself.

Reuters – “MERS emerged in the Middle East in 2012 and is from the same family as the SARS virus. It can cause coughing, fever and pneumonia. Although the worldwide number of MERS infections is fairly small, the more than 40 percent death rate among confirmed cases and the spread of the virus beyond the Middle East is keeping scientists and public health officials on alert. Cases have been reported in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Oman and Tunisia as well as in several countries in Europe, and scientists are increasingly focused on a link between the human infections and camels as a possible ‘animal reservoir’ of the virus.”

Hundreds monitored in Taiwan after H7N9 strain of bird flu after infected tourist discovered
A tourist infected with H7N9 spent over a week travelling through Taiwan from mainland China before being hospitalized. Health authorities in Taiwan are scrambling to reach all people he potentially came in contact with during his tour. Three medical personal who had dealings with the infected patient have subsequently developed symptoms of upper respiratory infections themselves. However, it should be emphasized that there remains no conclusive evidence of sustained person-to-person transmission of the virus.

Channel Asia – ”  As many as 500 people may have had contact with him, all of whom are being asked to report to doctors should they develop possible symptoms, the statement added. The 149 people who may have had close contact include two family members accompanying him on the tour, the tour guide, bus driver, medical personnel and patients sharing the same hospital ward, it said.”

China confirms H5N1 bird flu outbreak in Guizhou
Following the death of approximately 8,500 birds on a farm in Southwest China,  health authorities have confirmed an outbreak of H5N1 amongst poultry in the area. The area has subsequently been sealed off, with a further 23,000 birds culled for safety. As of yet, no human cases have been reported in the area.

Xinhua – “The southwest China province of Guizhou has reported an outbreak of H5N1 in poultry, the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) announced Thursday. Some chickens at a farm in a village of Libo County in the prefecture of Qiannan in Guizhou showed symptoms of suspected avian flu and 8,500 chickens died on Dec. 27, 2013. The National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory confirmed the epidemic was H5N1 bird flu after testing samples collected at the farm, according to the MOA.”

European Researchers Urge H5N1 Caution
The debate over gain-of-function (GOF) research continues to rage in the scientific community – in the most recent move, fifty scientists have drafted an open letter to the head of the European Commission, urging him to hold a press conference to discuss the merits of GOF research. For those of you not interested in macropolitics within the scientific community, gain-of-function research involves experiments in which viruses are carefully but deliberately mutated to increase pathogenicity in some way – in this case, by increasing transmissiblility between mammals. The research which launched the current maelstrom was Ron Fouchier’s  mutation of H5N1 to make it more transmissible between ferrets (and therefore, also, humans). We’ll leave the polemic arguments to those who are better informed, but in the meantime, the  letter is available here.

Science – “Fouchier’s struggles, which included the Dutch government using export regulations to bar him from publishing his results, compelled the European Society for Virology (ESV) to write its own letter to the EC in October. That letter expressed concern that the Dutch government’s tactics were inappropriate and threatened to set a precedent that could stymie the dissemination of research findings elsewhere. On the scientific side of the debate, some have argued that gain-of-function research, especially those studies that engineer deadly strains of the bird flu virus, can potentially result in inadvertent escapes from the lab and widespread infection. Proponents of the work argue that studying how mutations confer the ability to infect new individuals via novel routes can yield key insights into how the pathogens spread.”

(image of H1N1 via CDC/ Doug Jordan, M.A.)

Delving Deeper: Emergency Preparedness

by Siddha Hover, posted in News, Research Notes

By Yong-Bee Lim

As the past two years of disaster events have displayed, it is more important than ever for individuals, families, and organizations to prepare for self-sufficiency for extended periods of time.[1] However, there is a universal human tendency to avoid thinking about negative events such as possible emergencies.[2] This deliberate lack of attention to local emergency plans and personal emergency preparedness can be vividly seen in a 2006 study by “The Council for Excellence Government Report”. This report, composed post-Katrina, displayed that only a 1/3 of the population lacked knowledge of local government plans, roughly half did not have an alert emergency situation in their community, and only 8% of the public has done everything required to fully prepare supplies and plans for an emergency incident.[3]

This lack of preparedness in the U.S. population is a large problem for a number of reasons. In emergency situations, a majority (52%) of Americans have reported the loss of electricity for 3 or more days. This, among other issues, creates a number of negative implications, which include:

1)       Potential lack of potable water[4] and other nutritional media (breast milk)[5]

2)       Lack of food, whether in the household or the local grocery store[6]

3)       Diminished visual, security, and communication capability[7]

These types of disruptions are likely to negatively impact populations as natural routines are disrupted. Furthermore, different types of disasters will occur in different areas of the United States; while earthquakes may occur more often in California, tornadoes may more likely affect the Midwestern regions. While parents are likely to be negatively affected by the effects of disaster incidents, children are likely to be affected more severely; due to their psychological, social and physical development differences, children are particularly vulnerable to feelings of powerlessness[8]. The fact that children are exponentially impacted represents a problem as children comprise 25% of the U.S. population.[9]

Emergency Preparedness: Child “Ambassadors”

While events such as natural and man-made disasters cannot be completely eliminated, there are ways to bolster emergency preparedness awareness and implementation. Furthermore, there are not only means to not only empower children by including them in the emergency planning and preparedness process, but means to actively engage children in the emergency planning and preparedness process. This not only provides children with the confidence to deal with unexpected situations, but also helps in mitigating feelings of anxiety and powerlessness in an actual emergency.

To this end, several interactive resources have been made available (both online and in educational settings) to impress, educate, and promote the importance of emergency preparedness in the youth population. Furthermore, as youth “ambassadors” of emergency preparedness, these youths can spark discussions, spur action, and educate their parents and communities about the importance and need to address all aspects of emergency planning and preparedness.

Government Resources

FEMA: The Federal Emergency Management Agency has a number of sources to educate children in the importance and practices of emergency preparedness. Some of these include:

  1. Flat Stanley and Flat Stella: These two characters, crafted as ambassadors for children to teach emergency preparedness, promote students to be child ambassadors by provide information such as the necessary facts, plans, and instructions to build a kit for emergency purposes: http://www.ready.gov/flatstanley
  2. Teen CERT: The Teen Community Response Team is a 20-hour program that provides teenagers with both tacit and experiential learning in regards to readiness and response skills; beyond just relaying the information of their learning to others, these students gain techniques in controlling a variety of emergency-related situations: https://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/teencert/images/Teen_CERT_Brochure.pdf

Private Resources

1)       Sesame Street [Let’s Get Together!]: This series of videos, documents and worksheets, all of which includes fun visuals and Sesame Street character cameos, engages both parents and children in the purpose of, efficacy, creation, and basic planning for emergencies: http://www.sesamestreet.org/parents/topicsandactivities/toolkits/ready

2)       American Red Cross’ [Master of Disaster]: This series of programs (numbering over 200), which are specifically tailored to lower elementary (K – 2), middle elementary (3 – 5), and middle school (6 – 8) are meant to educate children through a series of ready-to-go lesson plans that help students not only prepare for emergency events, but to also be able to adapt in the fact of unexpected events: http://www.redcross.org/prepare/location/school/preparedness-education

Regional Sources

1)       Virginia’s Emergency Preparedness: This document provides a step-by-step process for children and families to go through the emergency preparedness process, as well as offer resources in the State of Virginia for emergency issues: http://www.chkd.org/documents/CareConnections/EmergencyPreparednessforFamilies.pdf

2)       Texas’ Project SECURE Gulf Coast [through CIDRAP]: This project developed a disaster curriculum for Houston schools intended to promote preparedness education for children, and between children and families. An ambassador (known as the Disaster Ambassador Preparedness Program [DAPP]) was created to educate schoolchildren who, in turn, educated their parents. Learned skilled included how to make a family emergency plan, items to store in a family emergency supply kit, ways to receive up-to-date information during a disaster, and how to sign up for transportation assistance: http://www.publichealthpractices.org/practice/curriculum-trains-children-act-disaster-preparedness-ambassadors-their-families

Conclusion

While these programs have yet to display true efficacy data (through the use of a longitudinal study), the results of projects (like Project SECURE) appear to display significant improvements in both emergency planning and preparedness. Following the 2-year Project SECURE program, many families have followed recommended guidelines for emergency planning and preparedness for hurricanes, and the program is to be continued at the schools it was implemented at.

While man-made and natural disaster incidents are difficult to speak of due to a number of emotional and ethical reasons, it is clear that properly advanced preparation and planning is the key to mitigating the harm that might arise from any form of incident. It is, therefore, important to instill the concepts of emergency planning and preparedness early in our nations’ youth.  These youth, who will end up being our future, will also be empowered to aid their families and communities with the knowledge they have been given.

(image: Kakela/Flickr)

[1] FEMA, Ready.Gov Online. Accessed 12/13/12. http://www.ready.gov/make-a-plan

[3] The Council for Excellence in Government Online. Accessed 12/12/12. http://www.citizencorps.gov/downloads/pdf/ready/pri_report.pdf

[6] Columbus Community Hospital Online. Accessed 12/19/12. http://www.preped.org/Resources/20Wkstockpiling.pdf

[7] Pacific Disaster Center Online. Accessed 12/18/12. http://www.pdc.org/iweb/hazard_info_checklist.jsp

[9] ChildStats Online. Accessed 12/20/12. http://www.childstats.gov/americaschildren/tables/pop1.asp

Hong Kong Confirms First Case H9N2 in Four Years

by Siddha Hover, posted in News

Hong Kong has confirmed its first case of H9N2 in four years, with an 86-yearold man testing positive for the low-pathogenic avian influenza. According to Hong Kong health authorities, the patient has had no recent contact with poultry. He was admitted with a chest infection, and is currently in stable condition.

Read (slightly) more here.

(image credit: James Jin/Flickr)

 

Flu Season Approaching Peak

by Siddha Hover, posted in News

The flu is officially here in 10 states, with the dominant strain this season being the H1N1 strain. Alabama, Alaska, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wyoming are all reporting widespread activity. The flu season normally peaks in January or early February.

CNN  – “The previous week, only Alabama, Louisiana, New York and Texas reported widespread flu. “Widespread” means that more than 50% of geographic regions in a state — counties, for example — are reporting flu activity. It addresses the spread of the flu, not its severity. However, six states — Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas — reported a high proportion of outpatient visits to health care providers for flu-like illnesses. So far, ‘it’s a typical influenza season, if I can use that word,’ said Dr. Michael Jhung, a medical officer in the CDC’s flu division.”

Read more here.

(image via CDC)

The Pandora Report 12.27.13

by Siddha Hover, posted in Pandora Report

Highlights include H1N1 in Texas, 59 people with TB, a H7N9 fatality, H5N2 in ostriches, and vaccines coming to a mountain train near you. Happy Friday, and as our last Pandora Report from 2013, Happy New Year!

H1N1 Causes Early Spikes in Flu Cases
The flu season is in full swing, a couple weeks earlier than expected, with five deaths in Texas already. Luckily, the vaccine for this year’s flu contains the H1N1 strain currently predominant. Everyone please get vaccinated!

KUT – “‘[H1N1] is actually in the vaccines this year. So we’re finding that people who have been vaccinated, even if they come down with the illness, have a less severe course of it,’ Hydari said. He added that vaccine shortages that complicated flu season in the past is not an issue this year. Hydari also said that flu vaccines take about two weeks to take affect, and because the flu season typically peaks in January it’s not too late to get a shot this year.”

Dozens Test Positive For Tuberculosis After Exposure at Hospital Neonatal Unit
Fifty-nine people have tested positive for TB following exposure at a hospital in Nevada. A mother and her newborn twins are thought to have brought the bacteria to the hospital over the summer. All three died in the hospital, and were not discovered to have TB until after an autopsy was performed on the mother. Following hospital staff falling ill, and 977 people potentially exposed and subsequently tested, just two had active infections – the 59  mentioned above are latent cases. TB is still very real, and very scary – as this case illustrates, as few as three people can potentially infect dozens.

ABC – “‘Unfortunately, this situation is a hospital epidemiologist’s worst nightmare as neonates are highly susceptible to contracting TB and their infections can progress quite rapidly,’ he said. A mother and her newborn twins died of tuberculosis at Summerlin Hospital over the summer, prompting an investigation by the Southern Nevada Health District. Hospital staff didn’t realize the infected woman had tuberculosis until after she and one of the twins died and they performed an autopsy, according to KTNV, ABC’s Las Vegas affiliate. The other twin was in the NICU being treated without being under quarantine. The second twin also tested positive for tuberculosis and died in August, health department spokeswoman Stephanie Bethel told ABCNews.com.”

 Hong Kong confirms first death from H7N9 bird flu
An eighty-year old male has died from H7N9 in Hong Kong. Still, no confirmed, sustained person-to-person transmission yet.

Reuters – “The man, the second person in Hong Kong to be diagnosed with the virus strain, lived in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen and had eaten poultry there, media reported. The H7N9 strain was first reported in humans in February in mainland China, and has infected at least 139 people in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong, killing more than 40. Experts say there is no evidence of any easy or sustained human-to-human transmission of H7N9, and so far all people who came into contact with the man had tested negative for the strain, authorities said.”

Low Pathogenic Bird Flu in Western Cape Ostriches
Small outbreaks of H5N2 have been reported in South African ostriches. The low pathogenic influenza strain has been reported in seven farms and roughly 2,000 birds. Authorities remain uncertain as to the source of the outbreaks.

Poultry Site – “The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) received follow-up report no. 4 on 23 December. The report states that the affected population comprises commercial ostriches. A total of 10,171 birds were involved, out of which 2,230 tested positive for the virus. None died or been destroyed. According to the OIE’s Animal Health Information Department, H5 and H7 avian influenza in its low pathogenic form in poultry is a notifiable disease as per Chapter 10.4. on avian influenza of the Terrestrial Animal Health Code (2013).”

Keeping Vaccines Fresh
Apparently silicon packets can keep more than your new shoes fresh – scientists at the University of Portland have managed to preserve virus pathogenicity over time by coating the little zombies in a layer of silica. Some viruses subsequently cleansed of the silica coating retained infectivity. While this apparently means viruses may actually be able to survive inside volcanoes (we definitely feel there’s a movie in this somewhere), it also is good news for developing vaccines for use in places lacking widespread refrigeration.

New York Times – “Most vaccines are made of weakened virus or viral bits, and many need refrigeration. Keeping them cold is a major challenge when it comes to protecting children living in villages without electricity.’It’s hard to put a fridge on the back of a donkey,’ said Kenneth M. Stedman, a biologist at Portland State and the lead author of the study. By recreating the chemical-laden hot-spring environment, Dr. Stedman’s team coated four types of virus with silica, stored them, then washed off the silica and tried to infect cells. One heavily studied virus, phage T4, which infects the cells of E. coli bacteria, retained 90 percent of its infectivity for almost a month. The virus used in smallpox vaccines also did well, but it is naturally able to be stored dry.”

(Image: Afrikanischer/Strauss/Wikicommons)

How a Pandemic Would Spread Through Air Routes

by Siddha Hover, posted in News

We’ve all heard that pathogens “don’t respect boundaries” and are “international”, both of which are absolutely true. However, if you’ve every wondered how, and how fast, researchers at Humboldt University in Berlin may have some answers. Check out their interesting model simulation below:

From io9 – “Dirk Brockmann, a Professor at the Institute for Theoretical Biology at Humboldt University Berlin, and Dirk Helbing, Chair of Sociology, in particular of Modeling and Simulation, at ETH Zürich, published their paper “The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena” in the 13 December 2013 issue of Science. Considering the spread of H1N1 in 2009 and SARS in 2003, Brockmann and Helbing modeled how epidemics might spread through highly connected networks, notably air transit networks. Their models rely on a concept they term “effective distance,” which uses how locations are connected rather than their geographic distance to predict the spread of disease. The Brockmann Lab website explains:

‘It turns out that based on this principle we can define an effective distance related to the traffic that connects places for every pair of nodes in the network. This way we extract all nodes from their geographic embedding and represent them based on effective distance.'”

(thanks to GMU Biodefense’s Adjunct Professor Michael Dennis for passing this along)

Three New Cases of MERS, 1 Fatality

by Siddha Hover, posted in Uncategorized

 

A 73-year-old Saudi man is the most recent MERS fatality, bringing the total in Saudi Arabia up to 56. To date, there have been 136 cases of the virus globally. Saudi Arabia also reported three new cases of the virus, including two foreign health workers, and a 53-year-old Saudi man.

Koblentz on Syrian Chemical Weapons Destruction

by Siddha Hover, posted in News

Dr. Koblentz was quoted in a Voice of America article on the destruction of Syrian chemical weapons.

From Voice of America, OPCW Plan for Destroying Syrian Chemical Weapons Complex, Chancy –  “Gregory Koblentz, Deputy Director of the Biodefense Program at Virginia’s George Mason University, says the initial phase of the plan involves transporting the chemicals overland across Syria. ‘The chemicals are going to be packaged in Syria and then shipped overland to the city of Latakia, which is a major port on the Mediterranean,’ Koblentz said. ‘And then the chemicals will be picked up by Norwegian and Danish ships, which will then transport them to Italy.’ There, the chemicals will be loaded on an American ship which has been outfitted with equipment to neutralize the chemicals. Koblentz says that while the first stage of the plan is risky because it involves transporting chemicals across a country at war, he is optimistic the chemicals will make it to Latakia securely. ‘Up until now, there’ve not been any significant reports that the conflict has interfered with the consolidation of the chemicals and the OPCW’s actions on the ground,’ Koblentz said. ‘So while the route from Damascus to Latakia might be somewhat troublesome, the rebels so far have cooperated with the OPCW, and it’s in their interest to have these chemicals to get out of the country.'”

(image: DoD photo by Navy Photographer’s Mate 3rd Class Kristopher Wilson)

The Pandora Report 12.20.13

by Siddha Hover, posted in News, Pandora Report

Highlights include more pneumonic plague in Madagascar, H1N1  in Texas, Chikungunya in the Caribbean, H7N9 in Hong Kong, and MERS in Saudi Arabia. Happy Friday, and a very happy holiday season to everyone.

Pneumonic Plague Cases Up in Madagascar
The latest numbers in the plague outbreak in Madagascar suggest as many as  17 of 43 cases may be pneumonic plague – the highly virulent, highly infectious, transmissible person-to-person form of the traditional bacteria. As we’ve mentioned before, the case fatality rate for pneumonic plague is 100% unless antibiotics are prescribed in the first 24 hours following infection. However, as the disease’s incubation period can be up to three days, and as it often presents initially with flu-like symptoms, timely detection can be very challenging. We’ll keep you posted.

Madagascar-Tribune (originally in French) – ” 43 suspected cases of pneumonic plague and bubonic plague were detected Mandritsara since 20 November until 5 December 2013. 17 suspected cases of pneumonic plague were detected Analanjirofo. 15 cases of bubonic plague have been recorded in the district of Ikongo. In the district of Tsiroanomandidy, 3 cases of bubonic plague have been suspected.”

Montgomery County, Texas: Mystery Illness Likely H1N1 Virus
A regional hospital in Texas has reported eight cases of an as yet diagnosed illness – of the eight, four patients have subsequently died. One of the remaining four patients has subsequently been diagnosed with H1N1. The CDC is working with local health authorities to determine the pathogen in play.

Houston Chronicle – “Recent mystery deaths in Montgomery County could be attributed to the H1N1 virus. Conroe Regional Hospital this month reported eight cases of a mystery illness to the county’s public health department. Two of the patients tested negative for all flu viruses. Nichols-Contella said the 2013 influenza vaccine protects against the H1N1 virus. None of the patients who died had received a flu shot, the release said.”

Chikungunya Outbreak Grows In Caribbean
Chikungunya has struck the sunny Caribbean, with two cases reported to the WHO last week. Since the initial outbreak, a further 10 cases have emerged. Chikungunya is an Alphavirus, and is spread through arthropods, primarily mosquitoes. The outbreak on St. Martin signifies the first time the virus has appeared in the Western hemisphere. There was no international travel in the case histories of the patients involved. Fortunately, very few people understand better than epidemiologists the tendency of infectious diseases to spread with vigor, so surveillance systems are already in place.

NPR – “Except for a small number of imported cases each year, chikungunya has stayed out of the Americas until now. But U.S. health officials have been on the lookout for its arrival. The chikunguyna virus was discovered in 1955 by two scientists in Tanzania. ‘Microbes know no boundaries, and the appearance of chikungunya virus in the Western Hemisphere represents another threat to health security,’ CDC director Dr. Tom Frieden wrote in statement Wednesday. ‘CDC experts have predicted and prepared for its arrival for several years, and there are surveillance systems in place to help us track it.’ With about 9 million Americans traveling to the Caribbean each year, the CDC anticipates chikungunya will be a more frequent visitor to the U.S. in the next few years. One of the mosquitoes that carries the virus — the Asian tiger mosquito — is already a familiar pest in many parts of the U.S. during the summer.”

Two more H7N9 bird flu cases linked to Shenzhen’s Longgang district
Two individuals who lived or worked near the wet markets which tested positive for H7N9 last week have subsequently contracted the virus themselves. The two have been hospitalized and are in critical condition.  Again, the reemergence of the virus is consistent with expected seasonal patterns.

South China Morning Post – “Three patients who have contracted the H7N9 strain of bird flu had visited the Longgang district of Shenzhen, including the latest case announced yesterday, mainland health authorities said. A 38-year-old Shenzhen man was in critical condition after being diagnosed with the deadly strain of the flu, Shenzhen’s centre for disease control and prevention said. The patient is a migrant worker who lives and works in Nanwan Street, in Longgang district, near one of the infected markets where authorities found the H7N9 virus on December 11. A second patient, a 39-year-old man from Dongguan, commuted to the district. The pair follow Tri Mawarti, a domestic helper who was the first person in Hong Kong diagnosed with the virus. She is believed to have handled a live chicken at a flat in Nanwan Street before falling ill.”

WHO: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) – update
A further two cases of MERS-CoV have been confirmed in Saudi Arabia. The two patients are both female, aged 51 and 26 respectively. The former has no know exposure to the virus, whereas the latter had previously been exposed to an infected patient. Globally, there have been 165 cases to date, with 71 deaths.

WHO – “The first case is a 51 year-old female from Saudi Arabia, living in Jawf province with onset of symptoms on 20 November 2013. She has underlying chronic disease and was transferred to Riyadh for treatment in an intensive care unit. She had no reported contact with animals. The epidemiological investigation is ongoing. The second case is a 26 year-old female who is a non-Saudi healthcare worker in Riyadh. She is asymptomatic. She had reported contact with a 37 year-old male laboratory confirmed case that was reported to WHO on 21 November 2013.”

(image: Clavius66/Wikimedia)

Koblentz on Viral Warfare, Cyber Security, Chem/Bio, and Nuclear Weapons Accidents

by Siddha Hover, posted in Research Notes

GMU Biodefense Deputy Director Dr. Gregory Koblentz has a slew of new publications out of topics ranging from the nexus of bioweapons and cybersecurity to new frameworks for understanding chem/bio threats.

His article, “Regime Security: A New Theory for Understanding the Proliferation of Chemical and Biological Weapons”, is available in this month’s Contemporary Security Policy. Here’s the abstract:

“The literature on the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons (CBW) emphasizes the role of external security threats as the primary motive for states to acquire and use these weapons. As recent events in Syria demonstrate, governments lacking political legitimacy may use these weapons to repress domestic challenges to their rule. The concept of regime security provides a theoretical framework for understanding how the threat of military coups, insurgencies, or domestic rivals influences the acquisition and use of CBW by authoritarian regimes. The cases of South Africa and Iraq illustrate how a government’s concerns about internal security threats can impact its CBW proliferation decision-making. Omitting regime security as a factor in CBW decision-making may lead to the adoption of inappropriate nonproliferation and deterrent strategies. In light of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons against his own people, developing a deeper understanding of the influence of regime security on the acquisition and use of chemical and biological weapons should be a priority.” (available here)

Dr. Koblentz also co-published an article with GMU Biodefense PhD student Brian Mazanec, “Viral Warfare: Security Implications of Cyber and Biological Weapons” – the article examines the relatively emergent threats of biological and cyber warfare, exposing several commonalities between the two. The article was published in the November issue of Comparative Strategy, available here (access required).

Abstract – “Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, two new threats have received increased attention: biological warfare (BW) and cyber warfare. While it may appear that these two threats have little in common, they share several characteristics that have significant implications for international security. This article examines the two modalities side-by- side to review these common characteristics. In light of these commonalities and due to the extensive experience and rich history of dealing with BW threats, strategies for enhancing cyber security could advance more quickly by drawing meaningful insights from the biological warfare experience, such as the prospect of developing constraining international norms.” (available here)

Finally, Koblentz has a new review out  in Foreign Affairs, on Eric Schlosser’s new book, Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety.  The first paragraph is below – read the rest here.

Between 1950 and 1980, the United States experienced a reported 32 “broken arrows,” the military’s term for accidents involving nuclear weapons. The last of these occurred in September 1980, at a U.S. Air Force base in Damascus, Arkansas. It started when a young technician performing routine maintenance on a Titan II missile housed in an underground silo dropped a socket wrench. The wrench punctured the missile’s fuel tank. As the highly toxic and flammable fuel leaked from the missile, officers and airmen scrambled to diagnose the problem and fix it. Their efforts ultimately failed, and eight hours after the fuel tank ruptured, it exploded with tremendous force. The detonation of the missile’s liquid fuel was powerful enough to throw the silo’s 740-ton blast door more than 200 yards and send a fireball hundreds of feet into the night sky. The missile’s nine-megaton thermo­nuclear warhead — the most powerful ever deployed by the United States — was found, relatively intact, in a ditch 200 yards away from the silo.

(image: CDC)