In-depth: Defending against Chemical Weapons

As the death toll continues to mount from Assad’s alleged use of chemical weapons on the Syrian rebels, we thought it’s high time for a refresher on our own chemical weapons defense. What would the US do if a terrorist group released toxic gas on American soil? Before you dismiss it as unlikely, remember that nearly twenty years ago the Japanese cult and terrorist group Aum Skinrikyo released the chemical agent sarin on the Tokyo subway, killing thirteen, injuring nearly 50, and causing temporary symptoms in a thousand other rush-hour commuters. The Japanese health system successfully processed the 5,500 people who rushed hospitals on the day of the attack, and the contaminated subway line was up and running by the next morning. Would we be as well prepared?

Read our CBRN Policy Brief, “Is the US Prepared for a Chemical Attack” and understand our current mechanisms of response. The Brief is written by Dr. Alexander Garza, GMU Biodefense Affiliate Research Scientist and former Assistant Secretary for Health Affairs and Chief Medical Officer at the Department of Homeland Security. Dr. Garza’s Policy Brief analyzes federal government preparedness, in terms of prevention, detection, and response, to a chemical weapons attack on US soil.

Full brief available here

(image courtesy of Bernd Daub/Flickr)

Blair discusses Syrian CW use on Rachel Maddow Show

GMU Biodefense Adjunct Professor and Federation of American Scientist Senior Fellow on State and Non-State Threats Charles Blair was interviewed by MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow yesterday on Syrian chemical weapons use. Blair discussed the difficulty of ascertaining, as outsiders, whether or not the claims of chemical weapons use against the Syrian rebels are legitimate. Watch the full interview below.

Blair on Syrian Chemical Weapons

Charles Blair, GMU Biodefense Adjunct Professor and the Senior Fellow on State and Non-State Threats at the Federation of American Scientists, was quoted extensively in the Washington Post’s piece yesterday on Assad’s possible use of chemical weapons against the rebels.

Speaking on the grisly effects of nerve agents, Blair explained, “There’s muscle twitching. Then, as the muscle twitching gets more and more spasmodic, mucus comes out of the nose and mouth and you basically go into convulsions on the ground. People don’t survive this.”

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is accused of using nerve agent, possibly sarin, on sleeping civilians in the suburbs of Damascus. UN Inspectors have not yet been granted access to the areas of the alleged attack. Estimates of the death toll range from 136 to 1300, with no way for outside validation.

For information on a potential US response to a chemical weapons attack, see our CBRN Policy Brief, “Is the US Prepared for a Chemical Attack?“, by Dr. Alex Garza, GMU Biodefense Affiliate Research Scientist and former Assistant Secretary for Health Affairs and Chief Medical Officer at the Department of Homeland Security.

(image courtesy of Syria Freedom House)

(image via Freedom House)

Dr. Koblentz interviewed by CFR on Syria

Dr. Gregory Koblentz, GMU Biodefense Deputy Director and Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow  was interviewed by the Council on Foreign Relations regarding the most recent developments in Syria. Last week, US intelligence confirmed Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s use of chemical weapons on the Syrian rebels. Speaking on the differences between prior claims of chemical weapons use and these most recent assessments, Dr. Koblentz stated,

“There are two major differences between this intelligence assessment and the one released back in April. In the earlier assessment, the Obama administration reported that the intelligence community had “varying degrees of confidence” that the Assad regime had used chemical weapons, indicating disagreement within agencies on the reliability of the evidence. In this updated version, the intelligence community now reports that it has a ‘high confidence’ that the Assad regime used chemical weapons.

The second difference is that this report provides more details on the types of evidence underlying this new assessment: ‘multiple, independent streams of information,’ including ‘reporting regarding Syrian officials planning and executing regime chemical weapons attacks; reporting that includes descriptions of the time, location, and means of attack; and descriptions of physiological symptoms that are consistent with exposure to a chemical weapons agent.'”

The detailed and timely interview also discusses the next steps for the UN, as well as implications and possible courses of action available to the United States. Read the full interview on the CFR website here.

GMU Biodefense Policy Brief Series

The CBRN Policy Brief Series provides the Program’s faculty and affiliated research scientists a platform for providing expert analysis on current issues in domestic and international security.

CBRN Policy Brief #1, Is the US Prepared for a Chemical Attack, is written by Dr. Alexander Garza, GMU Biodefense Affiliate Research Scientist and former Assistant Secretary for Health Affairs and Chief Medical Officer at the Department of Homeland Security. Dr. Garza’s policy brief analyzes federal government preparedness, in terms of prevention, detection, and response, to a chemical weapons attack on US soil.

Read the full brief here.

Image of the Week: Chemical Weapons in WWI

Image of the Week: Chemical weapons in WWI

While we attempt to figure out who is using what in Syria, let’s stop and look at this very frightening (and quotidian) image of chemical weapons use in WWI. The below picture, showing the Russian trenches as a German gas attacks drifts in, was printed in the New York Times in 1919.

gas WWI LOC
(image courtesy of the Library of Congress)

Charles Blair: Why Assad Won’t Use His Chemical Weapons

Check out GMU adjunct faculty member and Federation of American Scientists Senior Fellow Charles Blair’s comprehensive piece on Foreign Policy about Assad’s weapons.

“Since the Syrian uprising began in March 2011, concerns over the country’s chemical arsenal have largely reflected the fear that terrorists might steal them in the chaotic aftermath of Bashar al Assad’s overthrow. Military use against the Free Syrian Army seemed less likely, largely because the use of unconventional weapons would violate international law and norms. If it broke that taboo, the regime would risk losing Russian and Chinese support, legitimizing foreign military intervention, and, ultimately, hastening its own end. As one Syrian official said, “We would not commit suicide.”

But this week chemical anxieties shifted. President Barack Obama warned Syria that “[t]he use of chemical weapons is and would be totally unacceptable” — a comment echoed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, both of whom said that use of the arsenal would cross a “red line” for the United States. Despite these admonitions — and a barrage of reports that Syria is preparing to deploy its chemical arsenal — it remains doubtful that Damascus is at the point where the use of chemical weapons against rebels makes tactical or strategic sense.”

Read more here.