COVID-19 – The Pandora Report

Pandora Report 9.12.2025

September 15, 2025September 15, 2025 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

Welcome to this week’s Pandora Report! This issue features coverage of the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, updates on COVID-19 and long COVID, fallout from recent CDC leadership changes, highlights from new science communication books, and GMU alumni making an impact in public health and national security. Carmen Shaw, a first-year Biodefense PhD student also joined the Pandora Report this week as a co-managing editor. She will oversee the weekly newsletter.

Ebola in the DRC

Last week, Congo’s health authorities declared a new Ebola outbreak in Kasaï province, reporting 28 suspected cases and 15 deaths, including four health workers. WHO has confirmed this as the country’s 16th outbreak of Ebola since 1976, with a case fatality rate of roughly ≈54%. The index case – a 34-year-old pregnant woman admitted to the hospital last month – has died from multiple organ failure. In response, WHO has dispatched teams to strengthen surveillance, treatment and infection control. Yet local leaders warn that critical gaps remain. “The main challenges we face involve the lack of personnel and the shortage of personal protective equipment,” said Dr. Amitié Bukidi, head of the Mweka health zone. “Beyond that, our hospitals need to be supplied with medicines and special equipment capable of addressing this epidemic.”

Further Reading:

COVID-19 Trends, Vaccine Scrutiny, and Transparency Gaps in Response

COVID-19 activity in the U.S. continues to show signs of peaking, but the impact remains uneven. The CDC’s COVID-19 surveillance data reports that test positivity for SARS-CoV-2 has dipped to 10.8% from last week’s 11.6%, yet emergency visits rose slightly from 1.5% to 1.6% and remain elevated among children ages 0 – 4 and 5 – 17 years. Against this backdrop, the FDA Commissioner Marty Makary announced an “intense investigation” into anecdotal reports of childhood deaths following COVID-19 vaccination. While no causal link has been established and current evidence does not indicate major safety risks, the probe reflects heightened scrutiny of vaccine safety at a time when public confidence remains fragile.

Attention is shifting toward the global prevalence of long COVID, which the WHO defines as a “post-COVID-19 condition” involving lingering symptoms weeks or months after infection with COVID-19. A new global meta-analysis published in Open Forum Infectious Diseases found that many teens and adolescents reported long COVID, though most symptoms resolve within three months. In their analysis, the three strongest risk factors were being unvaccinated, infections from pre-Omicron variants, and female sex. The most frequently identified lingering symptoms were memory problems and muscle weakness. “Less than 30% of adolescents reporting symptoms who tested positive reported their symptoms persisted for three or more months,” the authors concluded.

Beyond the clinical challenges of COVID-19, concerns are mounting over U.S. transparency in infectious disease reporting and tracking. HHS has indefinitely suspended a CDC project that would have launched a real-time, user-friendly platform with case counts for 127 notifiable diseases, expert interpretation, and expanded surveillance data. Envisioned as a one-stop hub – akin to a “National Weather Service for public health” – the site was designed to centralize state-level reporting and eventually integrate emergency departments, mortality, and wastewater data. Its suspension follows leadership turmoil, including the recent firing of CDC Director Susan Monarez and the resignation of senior staff like Jennifer Layden [DK1] who led the agency’s Office of Public Health Data, Science, and Technology. “We lost a lot of staff, and we couldn’t re-hire,” Layden said, noting that the ability to be effective had become increasingly difficult. Scientists involved voiced frustration that after major gains in data integration and strategy, political interference and staffing cuts are eroding progress, leaving the U.S. less transparent and less prepared for future health threats.

Further Reading:

“Mpox no longer international health emergency but remains concern in Africa,” Al Jazeera
“‘We have basically destroyed what capacity we had to respond to a pandemic,’ says leading epidemiologist Michael Osterholm,” Nicoletta Lanese, Live Science
“Global Prevalence of Long COVID, Its Subtypes, and Risk Factors: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” Hou et al., 2025
“A long COVID researcher continues to search for answer,” Karen Feldscher, Harvard T.H. Chan SPH

Avian Influenza Updates

By Margeaux Malone, Pandora Report Associate Editor

Global Leaders Convene in Brazil to Address Escalating Bird Flu Threat

Approximately 500 experts from across the poultry industry, public health, science, and policy sectors met this week in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, for a global multisectoral dialogue on high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI). Organized by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in partnership with Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, this landmark meeting aimed to coordinate international defense against the rapidly spreading highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus. Since 2020, HPAI has devastated poultry flocks globally and spread to 83 mammal species, including dairy cattle and wildlife. With far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, international trade, and global food security, the current avian influenza panzootic has prompted urgent calls for coordinated action.

The three-day summit focused on developing effective prevention and control strategies, building on the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of HPAI published by FAO in collaboration with the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) earlier this year. Key priorities included promoting early warning systems, vaccination strategies and biosecurity measures, with an emphasis on supporting vulnerable low-income countries and informal backyard poultry systems where surveillance and biosecurity remain challenging. Additionally, the summit focused on strengthening multisectoral coordination through a comprehensive One Health approach and sharing innovative and field-ready solutions for diagnostics, surveillance, and outbreak response. FAO Deputy Director-General Beth Bechdol stressed that “no single country or sector can tackle this threat in isolation, and failure is not an option. Practical, science-based collaboration like this is essential to protect our agrifood systems, livelihoods, and public health.”

The event marked the first time that government and scientific leaders were joined by private sector representatives in this type of global dialogue, allowing stakeholders to better understand industry challenges and also acknowledge the ongoing efforts and solutions being implemented by producers to combat the threat posed by H5N1.

Udderly Concerning: CDC Warns Raw Milk Could Carry H5N1 Risk

A new CDC report has concluded that the risk of potentially contracting H5N1 via ingestion of contaminated foods like raw milk and unpasteurized dairy products remains “low but theoretically possible”.

The CDC’s conclusion stemmed from analysis of scientific and medical literature demonstrating that influenza A may infect mammals through non-respiratory routes, including studies demonstrating that seasonal and novel flu viruses can spread to the GI tract of infected ferrets, reports of severe H5N1 infections in dogs and cats that consumed contaminated raw food or milk, and laboratory studies showing influenza A viruses can multiply in human GI tissues.

While it is unknown if avian influenza viruses can be transmitted to people through consumption of raw dairy products from infected cows, the agency emphasized that the possibility remains theoretically viable. Given that HPAI H5N1 has been found in commercially sold raw milk, CDC recommends avoiding the consumption of raw milk and unpasteurized dairy products, noting that pasteurization effectively inactivates influenza viruses. Officials also urge proper cooking of poultry, eggs, and beef to appropriate internal temperatures.

Further Reading:

“Scientists Begin Testing Bird Flu Vaccine in Seals,” Emily Anthes, The New York Times
“Cat in San Francisco euthanized after latest bird flu infection tied to raw pet food,” Jonel Aleccia, Associated Press
“Earlier H5N1 detection adds to Texas dairy herd total; researchers can’t pinpoint source of California child’s illness,” Lisa Schnirring, CIDRAP
“Bird flu fears spark demand for stricter shoot rules,” Steffan Messenger, BBC

Policy & Public Health Leadership

The turmoil at the CDC continues to reverberate. Last Thursday, Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appeared before the Senate Finance Committee in a hearing that quickly turned contentious. Lawmakers from both parties pressed him on his decision to fire CDC Director Susan Monarez, appoint vocal vaccine skeptics to the advisory panel that guides immunization policy, and narrow access to updated COVID-19 vaccines. At several points, Secretary Kennedy contradicted established evidence – from vaccine safety and effectiveness to estimates of how many lives COVID-19 vaccines have saved.

Despite Secretary Kennedy’s assurances to lawmakers that “anyone” could get a COVID-19 vaccine, many Americans have reported difficulty accessing updated shots due to patchy pharmacy supply, shifting eligibility rules, and state-level confusion. Doctors, pharmacists, and local health officials are scrambling to adapt while the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices prepares to meet on September 18 to set national guidance. In the meantime, this confusion has left vulnerable populations at risk, pending clearer guidance.

In the days following the hearing, the fallout was swift. Several members of Secretary Kennedy’s own family, including Joseph P. Kennedy III and Kerry Kennedy, publicly called for his resignation, warning that his leadership poses a direct threat to Americans’ health and wellbeing. Their criticism added to bipartisan concern in Congress and growing unease among state and local officials tasked with implementing vaccine policy. Looking ahead, the spotlight will turn back to the CDC on September 17, when former director Susan Monarez is set to testify before a Senate panel about her dismissal and the wave of high-profile resignations that followed.

Further Reading:

“I resigned from the CDC. Here are three questions for RFK Jr.,” Debra Houry, Washington Post
“Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the CDC and Me,” Susan Monarez, Wall Street Journal
“How to get a coronavirus vaccine and who’s eligible amid limited access,” David Ovalle, Washington Post
“Doubts about RFK Jr. grow for some Republicans,” Dan Diamond, Theodoric Meyer, and Rachel Roubein, Washington Post
“Surgeons general warning: CDC saves lives. It’s up to us to save public health,” Joycelyn Elders, USA Today

George Mason University Alumni Spotlight

Scott Wollek, MPA ’12 and adjunct professor in the Biodefense Graduate Program at the Schar School of Policy and Government has been named the new Director of the Maryland Hospital Preparedness Program (HPP) at the Maryland Hospital Association (MHA).

Scott, a recognized expert in public health and healthcare emergency preparedness and health security, brings policy experience from leading a health emergency preparedness portfolio at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, including collaborations with ASPR, NIH, DHS and SLTT health departments and private/non-profit healthcare systems, as well practical, operational experience in emergency response and capacity building from service with American Red Cross Disaster Services in the National Capital Region to his new role.

Now in its third decade, the HPP program provides regional collaboration statewide for health care system readiness. In Maryland the program is implemented through partnership between the Maryland Department of Health and MHA. HPP supports four regional healthcare coalitions across Maryland, bringing together hospitals, EMS, emergency management, and local health departments to strengthen and build capacity for response to disasters and large-scale emergencies.

Craig Wiener, PhD ‘16 in Biodefense (Concentration in International Security) at the Schar School of Policy and Government has been appointed as a Nonresident Fellow in Science and Technology Policy and Research Security at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

The Baker Institute is consistently ranked among the world’s top university-based think tanks, known for its nonpartisan, policy-relevant research on global and domestic challenges—from energy, trade, and diplomacy to science, technology, and security.

Wiener said, “In this capacity, I look forward to contributing to the Institute’s Science & Technology Policy Program, with a special focus on safeguarding research integrity and driving forward-thinking policy at the nexus of science, technology, and national security. This new role is complementary to my principal responsibilities as a Technical Fellow at MITRE, advising the U.S. Government, the Department of Defense, and the Intelligence Community on cybersecurity, CBRN defense, and national-level threat analysis. I will continue as a Fellow at George Mason University’s National Security Institute, at the Antonin Scalia Law School, where I engage on security issues with a nexus to U.S. national security law, defense and intelligence.”

“At the Baker Institute, I aim to help shape policy-relevant research that reinforces U.S. leadership in secure science and technology innovation, addresses the strategic dimensions of emerging technologies, and supports evidence-based decision-making.”

“I am grateful for this opportunity—and excited to collaborate with the renowned team at the Science & Technology Policy Program, alongside the broader community at Rice University and beyond.”

How to Be an Ambassador for Science: The Scientist as Public Intellectual by James L. Olds

How to be a Science Ambassador by James L. Olds explores what it means for scientists to step beyond the lab and act as public intellectuals. Drawing on decades of experience in Washington, D.C., and abroad, Olds offers practical guidance on navigating the science-policy ecosystem, engaging in diplomacy and managing crises. He emphasizes the importance of building coalitions, forging trust across political divides, and learning how to advocate effectively for science with leaders and the public. Designed as a “how-to” guide, the book provides students and professionals alike with tools to strengthen their science communication skills and embrace leadership roles in the broader public arena.

The Big One: How We Must Prepare for Future Deadly Pandemics by Michael T. Osterholm and Mark Olshaker

In The Big One, Michael T. Osterholm and Mark Olshaker warn that while COVID-19 was devastating, it was not the catastrophic pandemic experts fear most. Drawing on history, they analyze how societies have confronted past pandemics, evaluate the global response to COVID-19, and project scenarios for future outbreaks. The book underscores that the world already has many of the tools needed to prepare – from rapid vaccine platforms to stronger public health systems – but political will and sustained investment remain lacking. Framed as both a cautionary tale and a practical guide, The Big One argues that readiness today is the only way to prevent disaster tomorrow.

CTD–SPECTRE Symposium, “Tropical and Emerging Infectious Diseases for Clinicians and Translational Scientists”

“The CTD-SPECTRE Symposium on Tropical and Emerging Infectious Diseases for Clinicians and Translational Scientists 2025 offers a unique opportunity to connect with global experts, gain cutting-edge insights, and collaborate with peers dedicated to infectious disease research and treatment.”

“Taking place September 16 -19, 2025, at the historic Grand Galvez in Galveston, TX, this immersive symposium will unite clinicians, translational investigators, and trainees to explore the latest breakthroughs in tropical and emerging infectious diseases.”

“Hosted by the Division of Infectious Diseases at UTMB, Center for Tropical Diseases (CTD) and Special Pathogens Excellence in Clinical Treatment, Readiness, & Education (SPECTRE) Program.”

Learn more and register here.

Mirror Image Biology: Pushing the Envelope in Designing Biological Systems – A Workshop

From NASEM: “Most biological molecules are chiral entities where their mirror images have different structures and functional characteristics. Scientists have begun synthesizing left-handed DNA and RNA and creating proteins that can write left-handed nucleic acids. This, and other related research, is described as “mirror biology” and includes research toward creating mirror-image self-replicating living systems. The National Academies will host a foundational workshop on mirror biology, focusing on the state of the science, trends in research and development, risks and benefits of this research, and considerations relating for future governance of relevant enabling technologies.”

This event will take place virtually, September 29-30. Register here.

Doing More with Less: Practical Biosafety on a Budget

“Led by Azelia Labs biosafety experts, Katerina Semenyuk, PhD, RBP (ABSA) and Sarah Ziegler, PhD, RPB, CBSP (ABSA) this webinar will provide a comprehensive guide to maintaining a robust biosafety program in resource-constrained environments. We will address the unique challenges that arise when faced with limited funding or leadership hesitation to invest in safety protocols.”

“This session will focus on practical, actionable strategies to overcome these obstacles. Topics will include how to prioritize essential safety measures when budgets are tight, creative solutions for providing adequate personal protective equipment (PPE), and innovative approaches to maintaining equipment and facilities without costly upgrades. We will also discuss methods for effectively communicating the value of biosafety to leadership to secure the necessary support for your program.”

This online event will take place on October 2, 12-1 pm EDT. Register here.

EMBRACE 2025 – Scientific Pathways to Biotoxin Preparedness Online Event

From CMINE: “Join us at the forefront of chemical and biological security for EMBRACE 2025 – a key event dedicated to cutting-edge research on biotoxins and human biomarkers of intoxication. This international symposium will spotlight ground-breaking scientific work and host the inauguration of EMBRACE’s Biotoxin Task Force.”

“What to Expect:

A unique opportunity to shape the scientific landscape of biotoxin threat preparedness and learn more about the EU EMBRACE project and the Biotoxin Task Force

A platform for showcasing innovation in biotoxin detection and response

Networking with global experts in biological forensics and toxicology”

This event will take place on October 15, 0900-1700 CEST. Register here.

Global Conference on Biological Threat Reduction

From the World Organisation for Animal Health: “In October 2025, WOAH is hosting its third Global Conference, with the goal of galvanising advocacy efforts to manage the rising risk of biological threats from across the world.”

“The Global Conference on Biological Threat Reduction – which will take place in Geneva on 28-30 October 2025 – will bring together top minds in the fields of
health-security, emerging technologies, and biothreat reduction policies, from the public and private sectors – to focus on the latest strategies, challenges and innovations in combating biological threats to our interconnected ecosystems.”

“The Conference will bring together approximately 400 participants from different sectors, including animal health, law enforcement and security, public health, international and regional organisations, investment and development partners, private sector and industry representatives, research, academia and regulatory authorities, youth organisations.”

“Attendees will engage in thought-provoking discussions and innovative technical presentations aimed at strengthening prevention, preparedness and response capabilities across the world.”

“The event will be guided by a narrative that traces WOAH’s commitment to biological threat reduction and the increasingly relevant role it plays at the health-security interface. Against the backdrop of an uncertain future, WOAH believes that synergies between sectors can drive positive change – making the world a safer and healthier place. ”

Learn more and register here.

GHS 2026

From GHS: “We’re excited to officially announce that the 4th Global Health Security Conference (GHS2026) will be held in Kuala Lumpur on the 9 – 12 June, 2026!”

“Building on the incredible momentum of GHS2024 in Sydney, we look forward to bringing together the global health security community once again – this time in one of Southeast Asia’s most vibrant and dynamic cities.”

“Registration and Call for Abstracts are now live!”

Learn more, submit abstracts, and register here.

Applied Biosafety Call for Papers

“The Editors of Applied Biosafety are pleased to announce a forthcoming Special Issue focused on the myriad of topics associated with global biosafety management. This special issue will showcase examples of innovative approaches, creative solutions, and best practices developed and used around the world for managing risks associated with the handling, use, and storage of infectious biological agents, toxins, and potentially infectious materials in research and clinical settings.”

Learn more and submit by November 1 here.

64th ISODARCO Course

From ISODARCO: “In recent years, the global security landscape has become increasingly volatile, shaped by a convergence of geopolitical tensions, technological advancements, and evolving nuclear doctrines. The post-Cold War order that once provided a measure of predictability in global security has eroded. Conflicts such as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, and strategic competition between major powers have reshaped alliances and strategic postures.”

“At the same time, disruptive technologies including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, hypersonic missiles, and cyber threats – are adding new layers of complexity to both nuclear and conventional deterrence dynamics. These technologies are not only distorting the information landscape but also compressing decision-making timelines and complicating signaling mechanisms, increasing the risk of miscalculation.”

“Effectively managing nuclear escalation risks in this environment will require a combination of innovative diplomacy, technological safeguards, and renewed dialogue mechanisms to rebuild trust, reduce misperceptions, and stabilize strategic relations.”

“The ISODARCO 2026 Winter Course presents an invaluable opportunity for students and experts to discuss and examine these dynamics in depth and explore approaches to re-establishing strategic stability and reducing nuclear dangers in a volatile world.”

This course will take place January 11-18, 2026, in Andalo. Learn more and apply here.

Pandora Report 9.5.2025

September 5, 2025 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report covers the Ebola outbreak in the DRC, updates on the administration, H5N1, and more.

DRC Declares Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak

Officials in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have declared an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Kasai Province. As of September 4, 28 suspected cases and 15 deaths have been reported. Africa CDC reports that the index case is a 34-year-old pregnant woman who was admitted to the hospital in August with high fever and repeated vomiting, among other symptoms. The cases and deaths have been identified across the Bulape and Mweka health zones. Four cases were in healthcare workers. Furthermore, laboratory testing has confirmed the outbreak is of the Zaire strain. Kasai province last reported an EVD outbreak in 2008, while the DRC last reported an outbreak in 2022 in Équateur province.

Read more here.

“Climate Change and Antimicrobial Resistance”

Geoffrey Kamadi recently published this article in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, writing in part, “The cholera outbreak in Malawi illustrates how natural disasters and climate change can create or exacerbate public health crises. But researchers are only beginning to understand the relationship between climate change and AMR specifically. “For the last five years, a lot of new work has gone into how climate change and AMR are relating to one another,” says Arshnee Moodley, the team lead for AMR at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Nairobi.”

“Simplifying Research Regulations and Policies”

From NASEM: “The U.S. scientific enterprise has produced countless discoveries that have led to significant advances in technology, health, security, safety, and economic prosperity. However, concern exists that excessive, uncoordinated, and duplicative policies and regulations surrounding research are hampering progress and jeopardizing American scientific competitiveness. Estimates suggest the typical U.S. academic researcher spends more than 40 percent of their federally funded research time on administrative and regulatory matters, wasting intellectual capacity and taxpayer dollars. Although administrative and regulatory compliance work can be vital aspects of research, the time spent by researchers on such activities continues to increase because of a dramatic rise in regulations, policies, and requirements over time.”

“To better ensure that the research community is maximally productive while simultaneously ensuring the safety, accountability, security, and ethical conduct of publicly funded research, Simplifying Research Regulations and Policies: Optimizing American Science examines current federal research regulations. This report identifies ways to improve regulatory processes and administrative tasks, reduce or eliminate unnecessary work, and modify and remove policies and regulations that have outlived their purpose while maintaining necessary and appropriate integrity, accountability, and oversight. Simplifying Research Regulations provides a roadmap for establishing a more agile and resource-effective regulatory framework for federally funded research.”

Read STAT News’ coverage of this report here.

NEW: Doing More with Less: Practical Biosafety on a Budget

This online event will take place on October 2, 12-1 pm EDT. Register here.

NEW: EMBRACE 2025 – Scientific Pathways to Biotoxin Preparedness Online Event

“What to Expect:

A unique opportunity to shape the scientific landscape of biotoxin threat preparedness and learn more about the EU EMBRACE project and the Biotoxin Task Force

A platform for showcasing innovation in biotoxin detection and response

Networking with global experts in biological forensics and toxicology”

This event will take place on October 15, 0900-1700 CEST. Register here.

ICYMI: Strengthening Biosecurity in the Latin America / Caribbean Region
From IFBA: “The International Federation of Biosafety Associations (IFBA), alongside its network of biosafety associations and partners, continue to jointly implement activities designed to strengthen biological security across the Latin America/Caribbean (LAC) region. Most recently, an IFBA/LAC delegation, including included two participants from IFBA’s LAC Mentorship Program, participated in the Sixth Session of the Working Group on the Strengthening of the Biological Weapons Convention between August 12-15, 2025 in Geneva, Switzerland. In addition to attending the plenary meeting and its associated events, the delegation engaged with the Youth for Biosecurity Fellows in collaboration with UNODA representatives during their field visit to Geneva. The IFBA’s Senior Program Officer presented the IFBA’s existing program successes and future strategic planning to the Global Partnership’s Biological Security Working Group.”

Read more here.

Biological Threats in the Age of Emerging Biotechnology – A Workshop Series

From NASEM: “The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) will convene an ad hoc planning committee to organize a workshop series with international scientists. The series will engage early-career and established experts to: a) examine dual-use risks in biotechnology research; b) explore potential misuse of knowledge, tools, and materials; c) review existing frameworks for assessing and mitigating dual-use concerns; and d) identify steps to reduce exploitation while promoting responsible innovation. The workshops will focus on balancing scientific progress with security considerations. Key insights and recommendations will be compiled in a publicly available workshop proceedings document.”

These workshops will take place 10 am-1 pm ET on September 10, 17, and 18. Register here.

CTD–SPECTRE Symposium, “Tropical and Emerging Infectious Diseases for Clinicians and Translational Scientists”

“Hosted by the Division of Infectious Diseases at UTMB, Center for Tropical Diseases (CTD) and Special Pathogens Excellence in Clinical Treatment, Readiness, & Education (SPECTRE) Program.”

Learn more and register here.

Mirror Image Biology: Pushing the Envelope in Designing Biological Systems – A Workshop

This event will take place virtually, September 29-30. Register here.

Global Conference on Biological Threat Reduction

Learn more and register here.

GHS 2026

From GHS: “We’re excited to officially announce that the 4th Global Health Security Conference (GHS2026) will be held in Kuala Lumpur on the 9 – 12 June, 2026!”

Learn more, submit abstracts, and register here.

Applied Biosafety Call for Papers

Learn more and submit by November 1 here.

64th ISODARCO Course

This course will take place January 11-18, 2026, in Andalo. Learn more and apply here.

Pandora Report 12.6.2024

December 6, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report covers news from the Biodefense Graduate Program, the winners of the 2024 OPCW-The Hague Award, reports of a mysterious illness in the DRC, and much more.

Biodefense Doctoral Student Selected for Next Generation Leader Program

First-year Biodefense PhD student Katie Dammer was recently selected for the Next Generation Leaders program as part of the Spirit of Asilomar conference that will be held in February 2025. “The Spirit of Asilomar and the Future of Biotechnology” summit will occur on the 50th anniversary of the 1975 international meeting on recombinant DNA, where scientists discussed the hazards and benefits of emerging biotechnology and voluntarily agreed to set new standards for the regulation of biohazards. The 2025 iteration of this summit will focus on artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, pathogen research, and other related topics. Dammer currently is a Biosecurity Fellow at the Horizon Institute for Public Service working as the Special Assistant for Global Health Security & Biodefense at the National Security Council.

2024 OPCW-The Hague Award Recipients Announced

Last month, OPCW Director-General Amb. Fernando Arias and The Hague Mayor Jan van Zanen announced the winners of this year’s OPCW-The Hague award: Alegeria’s National Institute of Criminalistics and Criminology of the National Gendarmerie (NICC/NG) and the Indian Chemical Council (ICC). NICC/NG is “a forensic science institute focused on advancing crime-fighting capabilities by integrating scientific methods into judicial and criminal processes.” The ICC “is a chemical industry body recognized for its role in promoting chemical safety, compliance with the Convention, and enhancing industry-wide security practices in India.” Read more about the recipients and this year’s award selection here.

DRC Reports Outbreak of Unknown Flu-Like Illness

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Africa CDC, and WHO are investigating an outbreak of an unknown, influenza-like disease in Kwango province that has infected at least 376 people and killed at least 67 (though some outlets report 143 deaths) since late October. Africa CDC reports that symptoms include fever, headache, cough, difficulties breathing, and anemia. Children under five are the most affected group, accounting for more than half of all cases and the majority of deaths. The outbreak started in the Panzi Health Zone, a remote part of the province. Officials report that they did not learn of the outbreak until six weeks after it began. In better news, the WHO has confirmed that the DRC’s mpox outbreak appears to be “plateauing”.

Raw Milk Recalled in California Following Bird Flu Detection

In a predictable turn of events, a farm in California has made a voluntary recall of its products and halted production after samples of its products tested positive for avian influenza. The recall has expanded since the initial recall of two lots of product on November 21. The California Department of Food and Agriculture has quarantined the farm and suspended the distribution of raw milk, cream, kefir, butter, and cheese products produced on or after November 27. The farm in question, Raw Farm of Fresno, has gained popularity with fans of social media “health influencers” and HHS Secretary nominee RFK Jr.. It frequently sells its products in natural supermarket chains like Sprouts Farmers Market.

The brand fell under FDA and CDC scrutiny earlier this year amid E. coli concerns, though the company insists it was the victim of “severe bias” from the agencies. Mark McAfee, CEO of Raw Farm, is insisting now that the actions taken by the state are politically-driven, despite samples of his company’s products testing positive for the virus. McAfee appears to have been encouraged by RFK Jr. to apply for a position at the FDA as the “FDA advisor on raw milk policy and standards development.”

Read more here.

“Biocrimes: Safeguarding Clinical and Public Health Microbiology Labs Against Insider Threats”

Casey Shroeder authored this piece for Lab Manager, writing in part “Within clinical and public health microbiology laboratories where scientists work to diagnose infections and/or protect public health, the potential for biocrimes and insider threats is a serious risk that is often overlooked. These laboratories, which handle not only routine human pathogens but also antimicrobial resistant strains, emerging pathogens, and potential biothreat pathogens, must remain vigilant against those who might exploit their access for malicious purposes.”

“Bacteriologic and Genomic Investigation of Bacillus anthracis Isolated from World War II Site, China”

Wu et al. recently published this article in Emerging Infectious Diseases: “Records suggest Bacillus anthracis was used in biowarfare during World War II, but evidence remains limited. We isolated B. anthracis from soil at the remains of a World War II–era laboratory in China. Phenotypic and genomic analyses confirmed the finding, highlighting the value of microbial forensics in biothreat investigation.”

“Modern Warfare is Breeding Deadly Superbugs. Why?”

Francesca Mari recently published this piece in The New York Times Magazine, explaining in part “By 2050, The Lancet predicts that antimicrobial resistance will kill 8.22 million people per year, more than the number currently killed by cancer. (For context, Covid claimed an estimated three million lives during all of 2020.) And a growing body of research suggests that the 21st-century way of warfare has become a major driver of that spread. Nations of the Middle East, like Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan, now suffer from particularly high rates of multidrug-resistant pathogens, and some of the world’s most fearsome superbugs have incubated in the region — Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, E. coli, MRSA and perhaps most notably A. baumannii, a strain of Acinetobacter that traveled home with U.S. soldiers, where it became nicknamed “Iraqibacter.”’

“Global Report on Infection Prevention and Control 2024”

From WHO: “Health care-associated infections (HAIs) affect patients and health systems every day, causing immense suffering, driving higher health-care costs and hampering efforts to achieve high-quality care for all. HAIs are often difficult to treat, are the major driver of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and cause premature deaths and disability. The COVID-19 pandemic, as well as outbreaks of Ebola, Marburg and mpox are the most dramatic demonstrations of how pathogens can spread rapidly and be amplified in health care settings. But HAIs are a daily threat in every hospital and clinic, not only during epidemics and pandemics. Lack of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) in health care settings not only affects the application of infection prevention and control (IPC) best practices but also equity and dignity among both those providing and receiving care. However, there is strong evidence that a large proportion of these infections could be prevented with IPC measures and basic WASH services, with a high return on investment. This second global report on IPC provides updated evidence on the harm caused to patients and health workers by HAIs and AMR, and presents an updated global analysis of the implementation of IPC programmes at the national and health care facility levels across all WHO regions. “

Bloomberg FOIA Files: Kremlin Targeting Putin’s Political Adversaries, Has Ability to Assassinate Targets with Chemical and Biological Weapons

In this edition of Bloomberg News’ FOIA Files, Jason Leopold discusses a recently-released memo from ODNI discussing targeting killings of Vladimir Putin’s political adversaries, and the means by which the Russian state is able to accomplish this. In the memo, intelligence officials assessed that “Russia has the capability to assassinate individuals using chemical and biological agents,” and that they have the means to track dissidents and defectors. The memo also explains that “The development of chemical or biological agents with lower risk of attribution might tempt the Kremlin to consider assassinating individuals,” in addition to discussing the death of Russian businessman Alexander Perepilichnyy, who was “reportedly assassinated with a biological toxin in the UK in 2012 shortly before he was scheduled to testify about a Kremlin tax fraud network.”

“Reviving Chemical Weapons Accountability in a Multipolar World”

The Center for Strategic and Strategic & International Studies published this commentary by Natasha Hall and Doreen Horschig ahead of the 29th Session of the Conference of States Parties of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. In it, they discuss the strain the CWC has faced in the last decade and how its strength might be restored. They write in part, “Next week’s conference presents an opportunity to revitalize efforts toward accountability and global cooperation. The United States, in particular, is in a position to reverse course on the dangerous erosion of the chemical weapons norm and maintain the integrity of the CWC. But to do so, it will need to engage friend and foe alike.”

“The Islamic Republic’s Work on Pharmaceutical Based Agents”

This report was authored by Mohammadreza Giveh and the Good ISIS Team for the Institute for Science and International Security. “This report discusses multiple Iranian security complexes that have been preparing production of fentanyl and medetomidine based incapacitating and lethal agents. These complexes have been working on pillars of producing those weapons: large-scale cost-efficient synthesis of the compounds with maximum potency, evaluating a stable chemical mixture based on those agents that can be aerosolized using a propellant, and developing the delivery of the agents through grenades, bullets, or drones.”

“Chemical Weapons Disinformation in Ukraine”

From GP WMD Counter Disinfo, this series includes three briefs: “Understanding Russia’s Chemical Weapons Allegations in Ukraine,” “Selected Examples of CW Allegations and Related Disinformation Campaigns from the Russian Federation,” and “Strategy and Impacts of CW Disinformation”.

“Chemical Weapons Use in Ukraine Testa Global Norms to Breaking Point”

Lennie Phillips OBE and Gareth Williams discuss Russia’s use of CW in Ukraine and how it affects the CWC and OPCW in this RUSI piece, writing in part “A riot control agent found in samples collected from the confrontation lines in Ukraine by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons implicates Russia in yet another breach of the Chemical Weapons Convention. But what steps can states parties to the convention take next?”

“Russia Fails to Make OPCW Executive Council for Second Year Running”

Patrick Norén discusses Russia’s failure to be elected to the OPCW’s Executive Council for the second year in a row in this piece for CBNW.

“How Might Large Language Models Aid Actors in Reaching the Competency Threshold Required to Carry Out a Chemical Attack?”

Stendall et al. recently published this article in The Nonproliferation Review: “Artificial intelligence is a rapidly growing field, increasingly driving innovation in the sciences. This is a double-edged sword, with the benefits of scientific discovery tempered by potential opportunities for weaponization and misuse. Specifically, the implications for chemical security and chemical weapons are becoming increasingly clear. This article analyzes how large language models (LLMs)—particularly chatbots and chemical LLM assistants—might enable actors to better reach the competency threshold for a chemical attack, via enhanced methods for the identification, production, and use of chemical weapons. This would be particularly relevant for those at the lower end of the capability spectrum, such as terrorist groups and rogue individuals. An important historical context is provided throughout the article, with chemical attacks of the past illuminating the dangerous consequences of an easier-to-achieve competency threshold. A counterargument is also provided, analyzing the factors that might still limit malicious actors, as well as a description of how LLMs might be used to combat chemical terrorism. The article then concludes with a short list of key policy and governance suggestions for mitigating the risks.”

Read or listen to CNS’ interview with Stendall on this article here.

“Chemical Terrorism: Assessment of U.S. Strategies in the Era of Great Power Competition”

From NASEM: “Domestic and foreign violent extremist organizations, or terrorist groups, have caused a greater amount of harm with chemical agents than with biological or radiological weapons. The United States capacity and capability to identify, prevent, counter, and respond adequately to chemical threats is established by the strategies, policies, and laws enacted across multiple levels of government. While the number of chemical terrorism incidents has risen and fallen over time, there is no empirical or analytical indication that the threat is disappearing. This report comes at a time when the nation’s highest-level strategies have shifted from focusing primarily on violent extremist organizations to focusing more on Great Power Competition. This shift in relative perceived threat and consequent prioritization will impact efforts against chemical terrorism, and in turn, affect funding priorities. Revised risk assessments are needed to reprioritize risks guided by new strategies, so that strategy-aligned budgets can be created. The report recommends weapons of mass destruction budgets be aligned with evolving priorities and incentivize activities that transition promising research to operations.”

“Nuclear Terrorism: Assessment of U.S. Strategies to Prevent, Counter, and Respond to Weapons of Mass Destruction”

From NASEM: “For nearly eight decades, the world has been navigating the dangers of the nuclear age. Despite Cold War tensions and the rise of global terrorism, nuclear weapons have not been used in conflict since Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Efforts such as strategic deterrence, arms control and non-proliferation agreements, and the U.S.-led global counterterrorism have helped to keep nuclear incidents at bay. However, the nation’s success to date in countering nuclear terrorism does not come with a guarantee, success often carries the risk that other challenges will siphon away attention and resources and can lead to the perception that the threat no longer exists.”

“This report found that U.S. efforts to counter nuclear or radiological terrorism are not keeping pace with the evolving threat landscape. The U.S. government should maintain a strategic focus and effort on combatting terrorism across the national security community in coordination with international partners, State, Local, Tribal and Territorial authorities, the National Laboratories, universities and colleges, and civil society. Developing and sustaining adequate nuclear incident response and recovery capabilities at the local and state levels will likely require significant new investments in resources and empowerment of local response from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy, and National Institutes of Health.”

“Ecological Threat Report”

The Institute for Economics & Peace recently released the fifth edition of its Ecological Threat Report, ” which analyses ecological threats in 207 independent states and territories. The report covers 3,518 sub-national areas which account for 99.99 per cent of the world’s population. The ETR assesses threats relating to food insecurity, water risk, natural disasters, and demographic pressure…The research takes a multi-faceted approach by analysing ecological threats at the national, subnational, and city level, while also assessing the threats against societal resilience and levels of peace. Comparing ecological threats against societal resilience enables IEP to identify the global regions, countries, and subnational areas most at risk of an ecological disaster, both now and into the future.”

“Healthcare Cybersecurity: HHS Continues to Have Challenges as Lead Agency”

This snapshot from the Government Accountability Office discusses previous GAO findings about HHS’ performance in healthcare cybersecurity, explaining that HHS has yet to implement all of GAO’s recommendations to address its challenges in this area. It concludes that “Until HHS implements our prior recommendations related to improving cybersecurity, the department risks not being able to effectively carry out its lead agency responsibilities, resulting in potential adverse impact on healthcare providers and patient care.”

“Lebanon: A Conflict Particularly Destructive to Health Care”

The WHO recently released this news post explaining that more health workers and patients have been killed proportionally in Lebanon than in Ukraine and Gaza, with 47% of attacks on health care in the country proving fatal as of November 21-a higher percentage than in any active conflict today globally. Read more here.

What We’re Listening To 🎧

Grow Everything Biotech Podcast, 103. DNA of Defense: Alexander Titus on How NSCEB is Advancing Biotech for National Security Challenges

“Karl and Erum bring on Dr. Alexander Titus, a commissioner on the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology, to explore the exciting and challenging intersections of biotechnology and policy. Alexander shares his experiences from his unique journey across academia, government, and industry, diving into the role of biosecurity, the potential of synthetic biology, and the emerging convergence of tech and bio. They discuss ambitious projects like de-extincting the woolly mammoth, advances in biodefense, and the impacts of AI on biotech innovation. It’s a conversation that sheds light on how cutting-edge biotech could shape the future and the necessary balance between innovation and ethical responsibility.”

Listen here.

NEW: How to Avoid Human-Made Pandemics

From the Asia Centre for Health Security: “Studying viruses that could potentially cause outbreaks is one of the most effective ways to reduce the risk of pandemics. However, this type of research—especially when it involves collecting samples from the field and manipulating pathogens—can unintentionally lead to a pandemic if not managed carefully. Dr Lentzos will discuss her findings from the Pathogen Project, which brought together an international taskforce of scientists, biosecurity and public health experts, ethicists, and civil society leaders to seek consensus on this question: Can we agree on ways to manage research that carries pandemic risk as safely, securely and responsibly as possible?”

This event will take place on January 23 at 8 pm (GMT +8:00) via Zoom. RSVP here.

NEW: Preparedness in Rural Communities: National and State/Local Perspectives and Plans

From Penn State: “The COVID-19 pandemic and recent hurricanes have thrust the preparedness of rural communities into the national spotlight. At the federal level, the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have recently released national goals and plans for preparedness of rural communities. The overall objective of this virtual, 2-day mini-symposium is to identify opportunities in public health and agricultural preparedness and response in rural communities. The mini-symposium will focus upon national perspectives on Thursday, January 30 and the state/local perspectives on Friday, January 31. Speakers include representatives of the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, the Department of Homeland Security, US Department of Agriculture, the USA Center for Rural Public Health Preparedness, and state/local leaders.”

This event will take place on January 30 and 31, from 11 am to 2 pm ET each day. Learn more and register here.

Enhancing the Resilience of Healthcare and Public Health Critical Infrastructure: A Workshop

From NASEM: “Healthcare and public health infrastructure, technology, and operations are rapidly changing and are increasingly interdependent and interconnected. Threats to the nation’s critical social and physical infrastructure systems are also rapidly evolving and highly complex—posing potentially new or growing risks of disruption and challenging the assumptions used to design and protect these systems.”

“The National Academies Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Disasters and Emergencies will host a hybrid public workshop to explore strategies, policies, and innovative actions to improve the resilience of healthcare and public health (HPH) critical infrastructure to impacts from disasters and other emergencies.”

This event will take place in DC on December 9 and 10. Register here.

A New Paradigm for Threat Agnostic Biodetection: Biological Intelligence (BIOINT)

From PNNL: “Please join us in welcoming Swati Sureka, Strategy and Policy Analyst at Arctic Slope Regional Corporation (ASRC) Federal, where she supports the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Readiness Policy and Oversight. Her talk, titled “A New Paradigm for Threat Agnostic Biodetection: Biological Intelligence (BIOINT),” will take place on Tuesday, December 10th, at noon PT.”

Learn more and RSVP here.

Resilience in the Face of Global Risks

From CSR: “The Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) cordially invites you to our first annual CSR symposium, Resilience in the Face of Global Risks, scheduled for Tuesday, December 10, 2024. This is the first event bringing together all three of CSR’s institutions—the Center for Climate & Security, the Converging Risks Lab, and the Janne E. Nolan Center on Strategic Weapons—to engage with leaders across our mission sets.”

“The United States and its allies face a complex global security landscape where systemic risks like climate and ecological crisis, nuclear proliferation, and biological threats are blending with war, geopolitical competition, and human insecurity in new and profound ways. While there has been tremendous leadership—and meaningful progress—across these overlapping risk areas, they require persistent innovation in community building to meet the modern risk landscape.”

“The symposium will dive into the progress our communities have made—and how our passionate communities can better work together to help shape the future.”

“In addition to a keynote address, guests will hear from panels, take part in breakout sessions showcasing important issues and new ideas, plus engage with thought leaders between sessions. It will be a widely attended gathering, free to attendees.”

“As we enter a new year with an exceptionally dynamic security environment, we hope CSR’s December event will inspire and build a stronger community across professionals dedicated to anticipating and addressing the world’s greatest risks. We appreciate your consideration and hope you will be able to join us on the 10th of December.”

RSVP here.

Cyberbiosecurity Summit

From Johns Hopkins APL and Bio-ISAC: “Advancements in biomanufacturing and biotechnology drive the science we need to thrive, everything from apples to vaccines. The Cyberbiosecurity Summit 2025 convenes leading experts in biotechnology, biosecurity, and cybersecurity to explore the intersection of these fields and discuss the strategies to create a safe, secure future for us all.”
This event will take place February 25-26 in Laurel, MD. Register here and review the call for sessions here (closes 12/12).

NEW: Call for Experts, Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats

“The National Academies is seeking suggestions for experts to be considered for the membership rotation or other engagement with the Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats. The group will help inform the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) on critical science and policy issues related to emerging infectious diseases and other health threats.”

“Since March 2020, the standing committee has consistently generated real-time policy recommendations and produced an unprecedented amount of timely, evidence-based guidance in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and other emerging public health threats. Looking ahead, the standing committee will continue to ensure that ASPR and decision-makers have access to the latest high-quality, evidence-based insights to inform medical and public health preparedness for, response to, and recovery from disasters and public health emergencies.”

“Approximately 12-15 volunteer experts are needed to serve on the standing committee of approximately 25 members.”

Learn more and submit nominations by December 13 here.

Pandora Report 10.19.2024

October 19, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report covers updates from the Biodefense Graduate Program, a new biosecurity and biosafety declaration from ASEAN leadership, the United States’ IV fluid shortage, new publications and upcoming events, and more.

Upcoming Virtual Information Sessions on the Biodefense Graduate Program

If you are interested in a career in biodefense or global health security or want to develop the knowledge and skills necessary to work at the nexus of health, science, and security, find out what the Schar School of Policy and Government has to offer.

The Schar School PhD programs will be holding a virtual open house on Wednesday, October 30 from 6-7:30 PM. Please join Dr. Gregory Koblentz, director of the Biodefense Graduate Program, to learn more about the Biodefense PhD program and ask any questions you may have. Register here.

Biodefense MS Grads Starts at National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology as Policy Advisor

Olivia Parker, a recent graduate of the Biodefense MS program, recently joined the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology (NSCEB) as a policy advisor. NSCEB is a legislative branch advisory entity charged with conducting a thorough review of how advancements in emerging biotechnology and related technologies will shape current and future activities of the Department of Defense. To learn more about NSCEB, visit their website here: https://www.biotech.senate.gov.

Establishing a National Biosafety and Biosecurity Agency for the United States
Professor Gregory Koblentz, director of the Biodefense Graduate Program, along with co-authors David Gillum and Rebecca Moritz, past presidents of the American Biosafety Association (ABSA), have published an article proposing the establishment of an independent Federal agency to oversee a unified national biorisk management system in the United States called the National Biosafety and Biosecurity Agency (NBBA). The current fragmented regulatory landscape needs to be refocused to address the complexities of modern biological research, including risks associated with accidental, inadvertent, and deliberate biological incidents. The NBBA would consolidate various regulatory functions, streamline processes, and enhance oversight. This oversight would encompass life sciences research in the United States, regardless of the source of funding or level of classification. The agency could also contribute to the bioeconomy by streamlining requirements to safeguard public health and the environment while fostering scientific and commercial progress. The proposed agency would govern high-risk biological pathogens, manage the Federal Select Agent Program, enforce policies related to dual use research of concern, pathogens with enhanced pandemic potential, and nucleic acid synthesis screening, administer regulations on the use and care of laboratory animals, as well as regulate other relevant biosafety and biosecurity activities. The goal would be to provide one-stop shopping for the biomedical research and biotechnology sectors subject to oversight by the Federal government. To ensure leadership in global biosafety and biosecurity, the agency’s mission would include international collaboration, applied research, education, workforce development, and coordination with national security initiatives. Creating an agency like the NBBA will be politically challenging but presenting a comprehensive vision and engaging stakeholders early and frequently, and being transparent in the process, will be essential for garnering support. Creating a unified biosafety and biosecurity governance system in the United States will ensure the safe and secure advancement of biological research while sustaining innovation and maintaining international competitiveness. The article is open access and can be downloaded here.

George Mason Scientist Secures $1.4 Million from DTRA to Study Viruses’ Impacts on Organ Health

George Mason University researcher Aarthi Narayanan recently secured a $1.4M grant from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) to investigate how an infection spreads between organs, and how a therapeutic will impact connected organs. The work will initially focus on mosquito-transmitted viruses while Narayanan hopes to expand the implications from these studies to other human disease states. Read more here.

ASEAN Leaders Make Declaration on Strengthening Regional Biosafety and Biosecurity

Leaders of the nations comprising the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) made a declaration on biosafety and security earlier this month during the 44th and 45th ASEAN Summits in Vientiane, Lao PDR. Their declaration includes an agreement to strengthen biosafety and biosecurity in the region by committing to strengthening multi-sectoral and multi-stakeholder coordination at the national level on these issues, establishing the ASEAN Biosafety and Biosecurity Network, establishing or strengthening relevant national legal frameworks, upholding commitments around responsible and ethical research using high-risk pathogens and toxins and related data to prevent DURC issues, enhancing protocols and procedures for the safe storage and transport of high-risk pathogens and toxins, ensuring the provision of necessary relevant human resources, supporting efforts to develop sustainable lab infrastructure, and tasking ASEAN Health Ministers to cooperate with relevant ministries to begin consultation, coordinate, and monitor efforts to meet the declaration’s deliverables.

Amid IV Fluid Shortage, Biden Administration Invokes Defense Production Action

The Biden administration told news outlets this week that it has invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA) in order to quicken the reconstruction of a Baxter facility in North Cove, North Carolina that was heavily damaged by Hurricane Helene. The plant was responsible for about 60% of the nation’s IV solutions, so the damage done to it by the storm has left many hospitals postponing surgeries and other procedures. Several products are affected, including multiple concentrations of dextrose IV solution, lactated ringers IV solution, peritoneal dialysis solution, sodium chloride 0.9% IV solution and for irrigation, and sterile water for injection and irrigation.

The DPA was passed in response to the Korean War and is historically based on the War Powers Acts of World War II. Over the years, Congress has expanded the term “national defense” as defined in the DPA so its scope includes things like enhancing and supporting “domestic preparedness, response, and recovery from natural hazards, terrorist attacks, and other national emergencies.” The DPA can be used to compel companies to prioritize government contracts and to help the federal government incentivize expansion of productive capacity and supply. The DPA was similarly invoked by both the Trump and Biden administrations in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Baxter said this week that 450 truckloads of undamaged products were removed from the site and that it is working with seven of its plants around the world to help address the shortage. The company is working with the FDA to import nearly 18,000 tons of product from Europe and Asia through the end of the year. Shipments from Baxter plants in Mexico and Spain began arriving last week, and the FDA has already authorized temporary importation from five sites in Canada, China, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. The company is also looking into other strategies, such as expiration date extension requests.

While this recent escalation of IV solution shortage is concerning, it is part of a broader problem that has existed in the US for years. Many of the products listed above were already in shortage prior to Hurricane Helene damaging the North Cove facility. For example, sterile water for injection was placed on the FDA shortage list in November of 2021, and multiple types of dextrose IV solution were added in early 2022. Perhaps most shockingly, saline solution has been on the list since June of 2018.

The reason the US has been grappling with this shortage for years, unsurprisingly, comes down to their lack of profitability. There is a high barrier to entry in that companies must invest substantial time and money in meeting regulatory requirements and setting up a manufacturing facility. At the same time, they are pressured to keep the prices of these products low. There are also issues with managing storage and transportation of these products, as a single bag of saline is about a foot long and weighs more than two pounds. Maintaining the sterility needed to safely make these products further complicates matters as well. Erin Fox, Senior Pharmacy Director at the University of Utah Health, told NBC that “These are life-saving products, but at the same times these are absolutely treated as kind of commodities.”

This situation is mirrored in an even more threatening issue-the dearth of antibiotic research amid rising antimicrobial resistance. While the WHO firmly warned last year that “We have arrived in the post-antibiotic era,” research and development of new antibiotics are still falling flat. Similarly, much of the issue comes down to reliance on private companies for innovations when those companies no longer have enough incentive to try and bring new antibiotics to market. By the 1980s, pharmaceutical companies knew they were unlikely to develop broad-spectrum antibiotics, and it is not very profitable to treat specific types of infections. This hurt private sector research greatly and, by 2021, just four major US pharmaceutical companies had dedicated antibiotic divisions. The FDA and its EU equivalent, the European Medicines Agency, have approved just 12 new antibiotics since 2017, 10 of which were similar to existing drugs.

There are some measures in work to help address this issue, including ARPA-H’s recently announced Defeating Antibiotic Resistance through Transformative Solutions (DARTS) project. Another example is the proposed Pioneering Antimicrobial Subscriptions to End Upsurging Resistance Act, or PASTEUR Act. The bipartisan bill failed to pass the Senate in 2021, but a revamped version (albeit with less funding) was introduced last year. The bill calls for the creation of a Committee on Critical Need Antimicrobials, requirements for HHS to award grants that support appropriate stewardship of antimicrobial drugs, and authorization of HHS to enter into subscription contracts for critical-need antimicrobial drugs.

No one potential law will address the lack of antibiotic research in the US, let alone the broader challenge of AMR and superbugs. Similarly, using the DPA once to help hasten the rebuilding of the North Cove Baxter facility will not get the country completely out of trouble in maintaining adequate IV solution supply. These kinds of challenges are long games that are only going to get worse amid economic and supply chain challenges, in addition to problems like climate change. Addressing these kinds of problems requires long-term thinking and sustained funding, rather than relying on reacting to issues as they worsen.

“Public Health Departments Face a Post-COVID Funding Crash”

Jazmin Orozco Rodriguez tackles the newest iteration of the public health boom-and-bust funding cycle in this article for KFF Health News: “But public health leaders quickly identified a familiar boom-and-bust funding cycle as they warned about an incoming fiscal cliff once the federal grants sunset. Now, more than a year since the federal Department of Health and Human Services declared the end of the coronavirus emergency, states — such as Montana, California and Washington — face tough decisions about laying off workers and limiting public health services…Public health experts warn that losing staff who perform functions like disease investigation, immunization, family planning, restaurant inspection and more could send communities into crisis.”

“Mitigating Risks from Gene Editing and Synthetic Biology: Global Governance Priorities”

Stewart Patrick and Josie Barton authored this report for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “Rapid advances in bioscience and bioengineering hold immense promise for human betterment. But as these disruptive technologies become more widely distributed, their inherently dual-use nature and susceptibility to unintended consequences could create unprecedented dangers.”

“AI Scans RNA ‘Dark Matter’ and Uncovers 70,000 New Viruses”

Smriti Mallapaty breaks down recent AI-powered research in this article for Nature News, explaining in part “Researchers have used artificial intelligence (AI) to uncover 70,500 viruses previously unknown to science, many of them weird and nothing like known species. The RNA viruses were identified using metagenomics, in which scientists sample all the genomes present in the environment without having to culture individual viruses. The method shows the potential of AI to explore the ‘dark matter’ of the RNA virus universe.”

“Tackling AMR: A Call for Global Action to Preserve Medical Progress”

Paul Murray, CEO of Life and Health Reinsurance at Swiss Re, discusses AMR and compounding factors like climate change in this piece for the World Economic Forum, writing in part “More such efforts are needed. Ultimately, stewardship programmes that promote the appropriate use of antimicrobials will be critical to preserving the effectiveness of existing medications. In addition, renewed drug development efforts to invent novel antibiotics are necessary, with resistant species emerging more quickly after a new drug’s introduction.”

“The Changing Face of Pandemic Risk: 2024 Report”

From GPMB, this report is a “…call to action for global leaders, policy-makers, health professionals, and communities to build a safer, more resilient future. It outlines the key drivers of pandemic risk and provides a roadmap for strengthening our defences.”

“Emerging Trends in Chemical Weapons Usage in the Middle East”

Natasha Hall discusses multiple issues regarding CW in the Middle East in this CSIS Brief, including the international community’s failure to address the Assad regime’s use of these weapons, challenges in multipolarity, and how actors are most likely to challenge existing norms by escalating from using RCAs to TICs and PBAs while spreading disinformation and slowing evidence collection.

“Putin Ordered Novichok Attack, Double Agent Skripal Tells UK Inquiry”

This reporting from Reuters details Sergei Skripal’s statement to the public inquiry into the death of Dawn Sturgess, and the poisoning of Yulia and Sergei Skripal in addition to a police officer who responded to the incident. In it, Skripal says “I believe Putin makes all important decisions himself. I therefore think he must have at least given permission for the attack on Yulia and me.”

Read more here.

“Russia’s Chemical Weapons Lies”

John V. Parachini and Svitlana Slipchenko discuss Russia’s CW-focused disinformation in this piece for the National Interest, writing in part “State parties should demand that Russia stop weakening the global ban on chemical weapons use with its torrent of falsehoods about others, disclose its own secret chemical weapons activities, and lay out a plan for coming into compliance with an accord it helped negotiate.”

“Russia’s Latest Target in Africa: U.S.-Funded Anti-Malaria Programs”

The New York Times‘ Elian Peltier discusses Russia’s use of African influencers to discredit US-funded anti-malaria programs on the continent amid to help stoke distrust and fear of the West in this article: “Western-backed health initiatives in Africa are one of Russia’s latest targets, a scenario reminiscent of the Cold War, when the Soviet Union accused the United States of spreading AIDS on the continent. The State Department says that African Initiative, a news outlet backed by Russia’s intelligence services, has spun similar accounts, including “disinformation regarding an outbreak of a mosquito-borne viral disease.”’

“Fueling China’s Innovation: The Chinese Academy of Sciences and Its Role in the PRC’s S&T Ecosystem”

Cole McFaul, Hanna Dohmen, Sam Bresnick, and Emily S. Weinstein recently published this CSET Issue Brief: “The Chinese Academy of Sciences is among the most important S&T organizations in the world and plays a key role in advancing Beijing’s S&T objectives. This report provides an in-depth look into the organization and its various functions within China’s S&T ecosystem, including advancing S&T research, fostering the commercialization of critical and emerging technologies, and contributing to S&T policymaking.”

What We’re Listening To 🎧

The BWC Global Forum: Biotech, Biosecurity & Beyond, Episode 15-Open-Source Intelligence

This episode features Yong-Bee Lim, an alumnus of the Biodefense PhD Program and the current Deputy Director of the Converging Risks Lab and Biosecurity Projects Manager at the Council on Strategic Risks.

“In this episode, we discuss the availability and use of open-source data to monitor BWC-related activities. Dr. Lim is leading a study to identify tools, techniques, and sources to support the ability to identify, track, and evaluate biological activities using publicly available information. Open-source analysis of biological activities, facilities, programs, and capabilities has been revolutionized through the convergence of radically expanded public access to data previosuly only available to state-level intelligence agencies and the emergence of advanced analytic tools, such as machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI). These new capabilities potentially offer civil society experts—or state governments without advanced intelligence programs—the opportunity to identify trends and patterns in data that can provide insight into the nature of biological activities.”

New: 13th Annual Jonathan Tucker Symposium

“The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies cordially invites you to the 13th annual Jonathan Tucker Symposium on chemical and biological weapons issues on November 13th and 14th, 2024.”

Among this year’s speakers are Dr. Yong-Bee Lim, an alumnus of the Biodefense PhD Program and Deputy Director of the Converging Risks Lab and Biosecurity Projects Manager at the Council on Strategic Risks, who will give a talk titled “Technology Democratization and its Implications for CBW Safety and Security: Lessons Learned from Engagement with Non-Traditional Communities.”

Learn more and register here.

NEW: 2024 CBD S&T Conference

From DTRA: “The CBD S&T Conference brings together the most innovative and influential chemical and biological defense community members from around the globe to share insights and collaborate on the emerging chem-bio threats of tomorrow.”

“Join the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA) Chemical and Biological Technologies Department in its role as the Joint Science and Technology Office (JSTO) for Chemical and Biological Defense, an integral component of the Chemical and Biological Defense Program, as we Focus Forward to uncover novel concepts and examine groundbreaking discoveries within the chem-bio defense landscape.”

“The 2024 CBD S&T Conference will be held at the Broward County Convention Center, December 2–5, 2024.”

Learn more and register here.

Potential Research Priorities to Inform Readiness and Response to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1)

“The National Academies will host a 2-day virtual public workshop, October 22-23, to explore research priorities for the ongoing H5N1 outbreak in the U.S. Recognizing the interconnection between people, animals, and their shared environment, this workshop will take a One Health approach to bring together federal government agencies, the academic community, and the private sector, as well as other relevant stakeholders across the health, agriculture, and food safety sectors.”

“Workshop discussions will focus on basic science and research areas of concern and may help inform future research that could provide local, national, and global communities with information about virus transmission, mitigation of risks, and appropriate measures to prevent the spread of disease.”

Learn more and register here.

The Advancing Threat Agnostic Biodefense Webinar Series

From PNNL: “Please join us in welcoming Drs. Matthew Kasper and Lindsay Morton from the Department of Defense (DoD) Global Emerging Infections Surveillance (GEIS) program for their talk titled “Challenges and Opportunities in Pathogen Agnostic Sequencing for Public Health Surveillance: Lessons Learned From the Global Emerging Infections Surveillance Program.” This webinar will take place Tuesday, October 29th, at noon PT.”

Learn more and register here.

One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 Book Launch

The Writer’s Center is hosting a book launch for Dr. Laura Kahn’s new book, One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 (blurb below) on November 23 at 2 pm EST in Bethesda, MD. Learn more and RSVP here.

“One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 unpacks the mysteries of COVID-19’s origins to impart important lessons for future outbreaks. The One Health concept recognizes the interconnected links among the health of humans, animals, plants, and the environment. By comparing the history, science, and clinical presentations of three different coronaviruses—SARS-CoV-1, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)—Kahn uncovers insights with important repercussions for how to prepare and avoid future pandemics. The One Health approach provides a useful framework for examining the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the origins of this zoonotic disease requires investigating the environmental and molecular biological factors that allowed the virus to spread to humans. The book explores the many ways in which the wild animal trade, wet markets, and the camel industry contributed to the spread of the earlier SARS-CoV-1 and MERS coronaviruses. For SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), Kahn examines the biosafety, biosecurity, and bioethics implications of gain-of-function research on pandemic potential pathogens. This book is a must read to understand the geopolitics of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

NEW: BID2025 Stakeholder Input Request
“From BARDA: We are excited to host our next BARDA Industry Day (BID) conference on June 30 – July 1, 2025, in Washington, D.C.! BID2025 will delve into the critical intersection of health security and sustainability with experts from various sectors to discuss cutting-edge medical countermeasure (MCM) innovations and strategies.”

“We want to make sure that the event reflects the interests of our attendees. Your feedback will help us curate sessions, speakers, and topics that are relevant and engaging for you. This short questionnaire should take no more than three minutes to complete. Please share your thoughts on what you would like to see at the conference by October 30, 2024.“

Share thoughts here.

US AI Safety Institute Issues RFI on Responsible Development of Chem-Bio Models

From AISI: “The U.S. Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute (U.S. AISI), housed within the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), released a Request for Information seeking insight from stakeholders regarding the responsible development and use of chemical and biological (chem-bio) AI models.”

“Input from a broad range of experts in this field will help the U.S. AISI to develop well-informed approaches to assess and mitigate the potential risks of chem-bio AI models, while enabling safe and responsible innovation.”

“Respondents are encouraged to provide concrete examples, best practices, case studies, and actionable recommendations where possible. The full RFI can be found here.”

“The comment period is now open and will close on December 3, 2024, at 11:59PM Eastern Time. Comments can be submitted online at www.regulations.gov, under docket no. 240920-0247.”

ACHS Fellowship Program 2025

From the Asia Centre for Health Security: “The ACHS Fellowship Program aims to inspire and connect the next generation of biosecurity leaders and innovators.”

“Newly launched in 2025, ACHS Fellowship is a highly competitive, part-time program that provides an opportunity for talented graduate students and professionals to deepen their expertise, expand their network, and build their leadership skills through a series of training and project work coordinated by the Asia Centre for Health Security based at the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore (NUS).”

“This 12-month fellowship does not require relocation to Singapore and can be completed alongside full-time employment or an academic schedule.”

Learn more and apply here.

Pandora Report 8.30.2024

August 30, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report covers updates on mpox, COVID-19 misinformation, the US Government’s plan to re-launch its no-cost COVID-19 testing kit program, and more.

Mpox Updates

WHO Launches Global Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan

The WHO announced this week the launch of its global Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan that is designed to stop outbreaks of human-to-human transmission of mpox. According to the organization, “The plan covers the six-month period of September 2024-February 2025, envisioning a US$135 million funding need for the response by WHO, Member States, partners including Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), communities, and researchers, among others,” and it aims to coordinate this through global, regional, and national efforts.

Furthermore, “The plan, which builds on the temporary recommendations and standing recommendations issued by the WHO Director-General, focuses on implementing comprehensive surveillance, prevention, readiness and response strategies; advancing research and equitable access to medical countermeasures like diagnostic tests and vaccines; minimizing animal-to-human transmission; and empowering communities to actively participate in outbreak prevention and control.”

The same statement also says that WHO Regional Office for Africa (AFRO) will collaboratively spearhead the effort to respond to mpox in the WHO Africa Region with Africa CDC. It explains that “WHO AFRO and Africa CDC have agreed on a one-plan, one-budget approach as part of the Africa Continental Mpox Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan, currently under preparation.”

However, not everyone is convinced the WHO will find success in its approach. In a recent article for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists titled “A new mpox variant is taking off in Africa. The WHO plan for stopping it isn’t realistic,” Georgios Pappas writes, “In the mpox-affected areas of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Central African Republic, local health care systems may lack in capabilities to deal with threats like mpox. At the same time, political instability can be a barrier to improving health care facilities. Furthermore, malnutrition in the region predisposes children to unfavorable mpox outcomes. The WHO’s declaration of Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), the designation the body gives to the most threatening crises, should have served as a chance to support this lacking health infrastructure. But the proposals so far to address the crisis don’t appear to be rising to the occasion.”

DRC Struggles Without Adequate Access to Vaccines, Tests, and Treatments

Officials in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the epicenter of the current mpox outbreak, say they are without the necessary resources to contain the outbreak and treat those who are infected. NYT‘s Stephanie Nolen explains in a recent piece that the country has limited ability to diagnose mpox cases, a particularly concerning fact as the transmission and presentation of the disease change. She also writes “There is no effective antiviral treatment for mpox in Congo. The country is also short on the medications necessary to treat people with painful mpox lesions. Its fragile public health system is struggling to provide those infected with basic care, which has been shown to improve survival rates even in the absence of antiviral drugs.”

The DRC also continues to want for mpox vaccines, despite the country requesting them two years ago and manufacturers saying they have the supplies. This is in large part because of the WHO’s regulatory process. In the years since the last worldwide mpox outbreak, the WHO has still yet to approve the vaccines nor issue an emergency use license for them. This prevents UNICEF and Gavi from helping to facilitate immunizations in developing countries as they require one of these forms of authorization.

As Nolen explains in another piece, many low- and middle-income countries depend on the WHO to make these judgments about vaccines and other pharmaceuticals, in contrast to high-income countries that rely on their own regulators. This is a problem as “…the organization is painfully risk-averse, concerned with a need to protect its trustworthiness and ill-prepared to act swiftly in emergencies,” according to Blair Hanewall, a global health consultant who “managed the W.H.O. approvals portfolio as a deputy director of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, a key funder, for more than a decade.”

Despite these roadblocks, the WHO announced today that mpox vaccines are set to arrive in the DRC over the next few days. 230,000 doses, which were donated by the European Commission and Bavarian Nordic, are immediately available to be dispatched.

Read More-“Mpox Vaccine Tracker: Millions Pledged, Millions Still Yet to Be Delivered,” Chloe Searchinger and Allison Krugman, Think Global Health

WHO Urges Diagnostic Test Rapid Access and Invites Manufacturers to Emergency Review

This week, the WHO also asked manufacturers of in vitro diagnostics (IVDs) for mpox to submit expressions of interest for Emergency Use Listing (EUL). This comes after discussions with these manufacturers about the need for IVDs, especially in low-income settings. WHO explained in its statement on the action that “With as many as 1000 suspected cases reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo alone this week, the demand for diagnostic tests is on the rise. In this heavily affected country, WHO has worked with partners to scale up diagnostic capacity to respond to the upsurge of cases. Since May 2024, six additional labs have been equipped to diagnose mpox, enabling a decentralization of testing capacity from major cities to affected provinces. Two of these labs are in South Kivu, selected to respond to the outbreak of the new viral strain, called Ib. Thanks to these efforts, testing rates have dramatically improved in the country, with four times as many samples tested in 2024 so far as compared to 2023.”

US Government to Resume Offering COVID-19 Tests Through Mail at No Cost Again

Early this week, the US government announced it will again offer COVID-19 test kits to American households at no cost. Households will be able to order up to four COVID-19 nasal swab tests upon the program’s reopening. This announcement comes alongside urging people to seek out updated COVID-19 boosters before the fall and winter come. While many Americans do have some immunity to COVID-19 because of previous infections or immunizations, less than 25% of adults in the US got an updated COVID-19 vaccination last fall.

More Americans Believe COVID-19 Vaccine Misinformation

Research from the University of Pennsylvania’s Annenberg Public Policy Center found that 28% of respondents incorrectly believe that COVID-19 vaccines are responsible for thousands of deaths. This is in contrast to 22% in June of 2021. Furthermore, the percentage of respondents who say this is false declined from 66% to 55% during the same time period. 22% believe it is safer to be infected rather than get the vaccine, in contrast to 10% in April of 2021. The belief that COVID-19 vaccines change patients’ DNA rose from 8% in April 2021 to 15% now. Finally, while about two-thirds of respondents said the benefits of COVID-19 vaccines outweigh the potential risks, this number is lower than those who believe the same for mpox, RSV, and MMR vaccines.

As Axios’ Adriel Bettelheim explains, “Previous polling has shown sizable numbers of Americans who believe COVID vaccine misinformation know they’re at odds with scientists and medical experts, suggesting that educating people on the science behind vaccines won’t change many minds.”

These trends are especially concerning given the United States’ renewed struggles with COVID-19 this summer and the push to prepare the public for the upcoming fall and winter respiratory virus season.

“International Talent Programs in the Changing Global Environment”

From the National Academies: “The U.S. science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workforce plays a vital role in fostering and sustaining innovation, economic competitiveness, and national security. This workforce currently depends, and for the foreseeable future will depend, on both international and domestic talent. Foreign STEM talent contributes to domestic innovation, economic growth, and U.S. leadership in science and technology and also expands perspectives and networks essential to future scientific collaborations and discoveries.”

“At the request of the U.S. Department of Defense, this report reviews foreign and domestic talent or incentive programs and their corresponding scientific, economic, and national security benefits. International Talent Programs in the Changing Global Environment makes recommendations to improve the effectiveness of U.S. mechanisms for attracting and retaining international students and scholars relative to the programs and incentives other nations use to support national research capabilities, especially in national security and defense-related fields.”

Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley, an associate professor with George Mason’s Biodefense Graduate Program, provided the study committee with insight into China’s Thousand Talent Program.

“We Need a Global Framework for Promoting Safe Handling of High Consequence Pathogens”

Karlsson et al. authored this opinion piece for the BMJ, writing in their introduction “The covid-19 pandemic has highlighted ongoing concerns regarding biosafety and biosecurity procedures in global pathogen research. This includes questions about any possible role of field and laboratory research into the emergence of the SARS-COV-2 virus.1 The $125m Discovery and Exploration of Emerging Pathogens-Viral Zoonoses programme, funded by the US Agency for International Development, researching new zoonotic viruses was recently cancelled partly because of these concerns.2 This has raised broader discussion about the risks and benefits of viral surveillance and research. Limiting funds for pathogen surveillance and research compromises long term preparedness for pandemics and leaves pathogen spillover threats unmonitored. Rather than restrict scientific surveillance and research, a global safety governance framework that spans the entire pathogen value chain must be urgently developed. This must cover the life cycle of pathogen research, including collection, transportation, and laboratory handling.”

“Biotechs Bolster Biosecurity to Safeguard the Future of Nucleic Acid Sequencing”

Danielle Gerhard discusses expert calls for stricter security measures regarding synthetic DNA in this piece for The Scientist: “Since then, industry consortia and government bodies have stepped up to fill this gap and provide guidance on how DNA providers can help prevent biosecurity risks through enhanced screening frameworks. However, to keep pace with the evolving landscape of rapid technology advancements and requests for guidance from industry, the government has updated its framework for providers of these services, but some experts in the field call for end-users, including institutions, to take on more responsibility when it comes to minimizing the biosecurity risks associated with these technologies.”

“Can Operation Warp Speed Serve as a Model for Accelerating Innovations Beyond COVID Vaccines?”

Arielle D’Souza, Kendall Hoyt, Christopher M. Snyder, and Alec Stapp’s work on a framework for applying mission approaches and economic principles from Operation Warp Speed to other innovations was recently made available by the National Bureau of Economic Research: “Operation Warp Speed (OWS) was a U.S. government-led program to accelerate the development, production, and administration of COVID-19 vaccines. The program cut the typical ten-year timeline needed to develop a new vaccine down to ten months and began vaccinating vulnerable populations within a year after launch. OWS’s success has led to calls for a similar mission model to accelerate innovations addressing other pressing social needs, including a cure for Alzheimer’s disease or atmospheric-carbon removal to combat global warming. We provide a framework to understand which innovations call for a mission approach and apply economic principles to identify key design features that contributed to the success of OWS.”

“2022-2024 NBAF Science Accomplishments Report”

The US Department of Agriculture recently released this report on scientific accomplishments at the National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan, KS. The report covers NBAF’s mission and capabilities as well as accomplishments made by the ARS Foreign Animal Disease Research Unit, ARS Foreign Arthropod-Borne Animal Disease Research Unit, ARS Zoonotic and Emerging Disease Research Unit, Biologics Development Module, and APHIS Foreign Animal Disease Diagnostic Laboratory.

“Behind the Smoke: How Disinformation Surrounding Syria’s Chemical Attacks Undermines Public Health”

Salma Daoudi recently authored this article for the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy that “…explores the strategic use of disinformation to manipulate public perceptions around the Assad regime’s chemical attacks and its ramifications for the public health sector.”

“Worldwide Trends in COVID-19-Related Attacks Against Healthcare: A Review of the Safeguarding Health in Conflict Coalition Database”

Duffhues et al. recently published this article in Health Security: “During the COVID-19 pandemic, violence targeting healthcare reportedly increased. Attacks against healthcare can severely hamper the public health response during a pandemic. Descriptive data analysis of these attacks may be helpful to develop prevention and mitigation strategies. This study aimed to investigate trends regarding COVID-19-related attacks against healthcare from January 2020 until January 2023. COVID-19-related incidents occurring between January 2020 and January 2023 were extracted from the Safeguarding Health in Conflict Coalition database and screened for eligibility. Included incidents were linked to COVID-19 health measures or were attacks directly interfering with COVID-19 healthcare, including conflict-related attacks. Data collected per incident included temporal factors; country; setting; attack and weapon type; perpetrator; motive; number of healthcare workers (HCWs) killed, injured, or kidnapped; and health facility damage. The study identified 255 COVID-19-related attacks against healthcare, with 18 HCWs killed, 147 HCWs injured, and 86 facilities damaged. The highest attack frequency was reported during the beginning of the pandemic and predominantly concerned stigma-related attacks against healthcare. Reported incidents in 2021 included attacks targeting vaccination campaigns, as well as conflict-related attacks interfering with COVID-19 healthcare. COVID-19-related attacks against healthcare occurred in heterogeneous contexts throughout the pandemic. Due to underreporting, the data presented are a minimum estimate of the actual magnitude of violence. The findings of this study emphasize the importance of public education campaigns, improved coordination between healthcare organizations and law enforcement, and the possible need to bolster the security of medical facilities and health workers.”

Asimov Press Pandemic Prevention Mini-Issue

Asimov Press recently published a handful of essays as part of its Pandemic Prevention Mini-Issue, including “Is That DNA Dangerous?” by Tessa Alexanian and Max Langenkamp, “Day Zero Antivirals for Future Pandemics” by Brian Wang, “Measuring the Black Death” by Saloni Dattani, and “Defense-Forward Biosecurity” by Allison Berke.

“Unmasking the Threat”

Goran Georgiev recently published this blog post focused on WMD information manipulation in Bulgaria and Romania with the Center for the Study of Democracy, writing in part “The analysis underscores a stark contrast between Bulgaria and Romania in the spread and impact of misleading content about biological laboratories, reflecting broader cultural differences in how Russia is perceived publicly. Romania does not share many of the cultural pull factors or cognitive capture that make citizens in majority Slav countries vulnerable to pro-Kremlin information interference, particularly the shared linguistic, ethnic, and historical heritage. Differences in geopolitical public perceptions have been evident in numerous comparative surveys, with Romanians being over eight times less likely (at 3%) to see Russia as a strategic ally after the invasion compared to Bulgarians (at 26%) or Slovaks (25%). These differences appear to be reflected in the level of engagement with pro-Kremlin narratives related to WMD.”

“Transoceanic Pathogen Transfer in the Age of Sail and Steam”

Elizabeth N. Blackmore and James O. Lloyd-Smith authored this article in PNAS: “In the centuries following Christopher Columbus’s 1492 voyage to the Americas, transoceanic travel opened unprecedented pathways in global pathogen circulation. Yet no biological transfer is a single, discrete event. We use mathematical modeling to quantify historical risk of shipborne pathogen introduction, exploring the respective contributions of journey time, ship size, population susceptibility, transmission intensity, density dependence, and pathogen biology. We contextualize our results using port arrivals data from San Francisco, 1850 to 1852, and from a selection of historically significant voyages, 1492 to 1918. We offer numerical estimates of introduction risk across historically realistic ranges of journey time and ship population size, and show that both steam travel and shipping regimes that involved frequent, large-scale movement of people substantially increased risk of transoceanic pathogen circulation.”

What We’re Listening to 🎧

Technologically Speaking Podcast: Season 4, Episode 3

“The Technologically Speaking Podcast sits down with Lindsay Gabbert, a microbiologist at the S&T Plum Island Animal Disease Center (PIADC). Lindsay and her colleagues at PIADC are on the front lines keeping dangerous animal diseases at bay and away from our farms. She talks about what the greatest threats are and what S&T and PIADC are doing to thwart them. She also shares anecdotes about her time working at PIADC, one of the most interesting and unique labs in the United States, nestled on a small and historic island in the Long Island Sound.”

BSL4ZNet International Conference

“The Biosafety Level 4 Zoonotic Laboratory Network (BSL4ZNet) is an international group of federal institutions in Australia, Germany, United Kingdom, United States and Canada responsible for high-containment laboratories that allows countries to work together to respond to dangerous zoonotic diseases that spread between animals and people.”

“The 2024 BSL4ZNet International Conference is taking place in September 2024. This year’s theme is “Emerging disease meets innovative science. The working language of the BSL4ZNet is English. The 2024 BSL4ZNet International Conference will be presented in English only.”

“The 2024 BSL4ZNet International Conference includes 4 sessions:

Wednesday, September 4: Threats and challenges – Delving into topics such as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Climate-Related Risks, and the nuanced landscape of Science Communication amidst Misinformation/Disinformation Challenges.
Wednesday, September 11: Innovation and emerging technologies – Innovation and Emerging Technologies: Exploring the latest advancements and breakthroughs in the realm of emerging technologies shaping our response to infectious diseases.
Wednesday, September 18: Biosecurity and biosafety – Addressing critical issues surrounding biosecurity and biosafety measures, crucial pillars in combating zoonotic diseases
Wednesday, September 25: Innovation for BSL4 activities and challenges – Featuring an enlightening panel discussion focusing on innovative approaches to address challenges inherent to BSL4 activities.”

Safeguarding the Food Supply: Integrating Diverse Risks, Connecting with Consumers, and Protecting Vulnerable Populations – A Workshop

From the National Academies: “On September 4-5, the Food Forum will host a workshop that explores the state of the science around hazard- and risk-based approaches to safeguarding both domestic and global food systems. Workshop presenters will examine nutrition, economic, and equity implications in food safety decision-making, and considerations and strategies for communicating hazard and risk across sectors. The workshop will also include national and international perspectives on risk assessment and tools to mitigate risk, as well as opportunities for the future of risk management and assessment, food safety, and public health.”

Learn more and register for this virtual event here.

Pandora Report 6.14.2024

June 7, 2024June 14, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s edition of the Pandora Report covers updates on avian influenza, a recent interim Congressional report on the NIH’s handling of mpox research, a recent report alleging the Department of Defense created an anti-vax misinformation campaign aimed at undermining China’s vaccine diplomacy in the Philippines, and more.

Avian Influenza Updates

USDA: Twenty-Four Companies Are Working to Create Avian Flu Vaccine for Cattle

Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack told Reuters this week that twenty-four companies are currently working to develop an avian flu vaccine for cattle among continued spread among US dairy herds. Furthermore, Vilsack explained that the USDA is also conducting its own preliminary vaccine research at its laboratory in Ames, Iowa. In addition to looking for a vaccine candidate to test for efficacy, the Department is also researching potential respiratory spread of the virus between cows and working to provide support to farmers to improve biosecurity in their facilities.

Vilsack also promised that a pilot program for bulk milk testing will be rolled out “in the very near future.” The program will hopefully expand testing for H5N1 while enabling healthy herds to move across state lines without needing negative tests from every animal. Vilsack says Michigan and Idaho are among the states that have expressed interest in the program.

First Fatal Human Case of H5N2 Confirmed in Mexico

The WHO confirmed last week that a 59-year-old Mexican man died in April a week after developing fever, shortness of breath, and diarrhea. The Mexican Ministry of Health reports that the man had several comorbidities, including chronic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes, and long-standing systemic arterial hypertension. While the National Institute of Respiratory Diseases in Ciudad de México initially said they found a non-subtypeable influenza A virus in respiratory samples from the patient, the Mexico National Influenza Centre confirmed on May 22 that its subtype was H5N2. While Mexico did report an H5N2 outbreak on a backyard poultry farm in the state bordering the man’s state (Michoacan), it is not yet clear how he contracted the virus.

While this case is unrelated to the ongoing spread of H5N1 in the United States, this is the first case of H5N2 confirmed in a human. Furthermore, H5N2 was the primary culprit in a wave of US outbreaks on poultry farms in the mid-2010s. This was just one decade after an outbreak in Texas in 2004 in a chicken flock in Texas marked the first time in two decades that a dangerous-to-poultry avian flu appeared in the United States.

“Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Genotype B3.13 in Dairy Cattle: National Epidemiologic Brief”

The USDA recently published this national epidemiologic brief: “On March 25, 2024, USDA announced unpasteurized, clinical samples of milk from sick cattle collected from two dairy farms in Kansas and one in Texas, as well as an oropharyngeal swab from another dairy in Texas, have tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratories confirmed the detection as HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype B3.13. Phylogenetic analysis and epidemiology support a single introduction into this novel host followed by onward transmission.”

“This report provides field epidemiologic summaries using data collected from epidemiologic questionnaires for H5N1 affected dairy herds.”

Further Reading

CDC: “CDC Reports A(H5N1) Ferret Study Results”

Amy Maxmen and Arthur Allen: “Bird Flu Tests Are Hard To Get. So How Will We Know When To Sound the Pandemic Alarm?” KFF Health News

Samuel V. Scarpino: “Timeline: H5N1 Bird Flu Outbreak in the U.S.,” Think Global Health

Maggie Fox: “H5N1 Bird Flu Isn’t a Human Pandemic–Yet. American Contrariness Could Turn It into One,” Scientific American

Helen Branswell: “In Dribs and Drabs, USDA Reports Suggest Containing Bird Flu Outbreak in Dairy Cows Will Be Challenging,” STAT

BlueDot: ILI Pulse: A(H5N1) Outbreaks in the USA

Katherine J. Wu: “How Much Worse Would a Bird-Flu Pandemic Be?” The Atlantic

Brenda Goodman: “Bird Flu is Rampant in Animals. Humans Ignore it at Our Own Peril,” CNN

Congressional Republicans Target NIH Mpox Research in New Report

Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee released this week a report titled “Interim Staff Report on Investigation into Risky MPXV Experiment at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.” In it, members accuse the NIH of obstructing the investigation of proposed research on MPXV at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), in addition to failing to properly regulate this controversial work. The report explains that, “The primary conclusion drawn at this point in the investigation is that NIAID cannot be trusted to oversee its own research of pathogens responsibly. It cannot be trusted to determine whether an experiment on a potential pandemic pathogen or enhanced potential pandemic pathogen poses unacceptable biosafety risk or a serious public health threat. Lastly, NIAID cannot be trusted to honestly communicate with Congress and the public about controversial GOFROC experiments.”

Science reports that “A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), NIH’s parent agency, dismissed the report’s conclusions. “The committee is looking for an issue where there isn’t one. HHS and its divisions, including NIH, follow strict biosafety measures as our scientists work to better understand and protect the public from infectious diseases—like mpox,” the spokesperson said.”

The investigation is one of many Congressional efforts to probe concerns about biosafety in laboratories and other concerns raised by the pandemic. This investigation was launched in late 2022 after Bernard Moss, a well-known poxvirus researcher at NIAID, described research he was planning to conduct in a Science news article.

Science explains that “Moss was trying to understand the difference between the virulent clade I monkeypox virus strain causing outbreaks mostly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the milder clade II virus, which spread from West Africa around the world in 2022. In a first effort, Moss said he had inserted genes from milder clade II into a clade I virus, without seeing it become less dangerous in mice. He told Science he was next planning to explore the reverse transfer: whether inserting genes from clade I into clade II viruses made these usually milder viruses more lethal to mice.”

“Some researchers raised the alarm, worried the study qualified as risky GOF research because the resulting virus could be much more dangerous and even touch off a pandemic. Committee members say that when they sought more information from NIH and NIAID on the experiments, they were initially told the transfer of genes from clade I to clade II was never approved…Then in March, NIAID revealed that its biosafety committee had signed off on a project that included such gene transfers in 2015, but that researchers never followed through; they only moved genes from clade II to clade I. The HHS spokesperson says, “The experiment referenced by the committee was never conducted, which the committee knows.”’

“This is a colorized transmission electron microscopic image of mpox virus particles (red), found within an infected cell (blue), that had been cultured in the laboratory. The image was captured and color-enhanced at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), Integrated Research Facility (IRF), located in Fort Detrick, Maryland.”| Credit: CDC PHIL

The Committee’s press release explains that “For nearly a year and a half, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the NIH, and NIAID misrepresented and deceived the Committee by repeatedly denying that the potentially dangerous experiment was proposed and approved. However, after being pressed repeatedly by Committee Leaders, HHS ultimately admitted Dr. Moss’s research team had been granted approval to conduct a bidirectional MPVX gene-transfer experiment (i.e., inserting the more lethal strain into the more transmissible strain and vice versa). Documents made available for review to Committee staff confirmed the 2015 approval of the experiment and raised additional concerns.”

It continues with “HHS, the NIH, and NIAID still maintain the riskier research project was never conducted. However, no documentation or any other evidence has been produced to substantiate the claim. NIAID has also failed to offer any explanation of the circumstances and rationale that supposedly led the Moss research team to drop the bidirectional mpox gene-transfer experiment after receiving approval for the project. “

The report also raises concerns about existing federal rules covering gain-of-function research, suggesting that they currently do not do enough because they allow researchers, their institutions, and NIAID to decide which projects fit the definition of GOF work. The report argues this is an “inescapable conflict of interest,” and that screening should be conducted by a panel at HHS or a new “wholly independent” entity.

The Committee also expressed disagreement with how GOF is defined in the new federal rules and made several more conclusions, including “NIAID has a culture of secrecy and obfuscation regarding experiments involving pandemic and potential pandemic pathogens. HHS and the NIH are complicit in enabling NIAID’s culture of secrecy and obfuscation. This is incompatible with accountable, democratic governance and further erodes the public’s trust in government health agencies,” and “: Principal investigators, research institutes, and funding agencies are poorly positioned to, and perhaps incapable of, conducting adequate risk/benefit analysis and oversight of experiments that—by virtue of having proposed them and approved their funding—they want to see conducted. This is an inescapable conflict of interest and misalignment of incentives that results in experiments being approved and conducted without sufficient scrutiny or ongoing oversight.”

Report Alleges US Department of Defense Ran “Secret Anti-Vax Campaign to Undermine China During Pandemic”

A recent report from Reuters claims that, “At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. military launched a secret campaign to counter what it perceived as China’s growing influence in the Philippines, a nation hit especially hard by the deadly virus.”

The report’s authors, Chris Bing and Joel Schectman, continue, writing “The clandestine operation has not been previously reported. It aimed to sow doubt about the safety and efficacy of vaccines and other life-saving aid that was being supplied by China, a Reuters investigation found. Through phony internet accounts meant to impersonate Filipinos, the military’s propaganda efforts morphed into an anti-vax campaign. Social media posts decried the quality of face masks, test kits and the first vaccine that would become available in the Philippines – China’s Sinovac inoculation.”

The report later explains that “The U.S. military’s anti-vax effort began in the spring of 2020 and expanded beyond Southeast Asia before it was terminated in mid-2021, Reuters determined. Tailoring the propaganda campaign to local audiences across Central Asia and the Middle East, the Pentagon used a combination of fake social media accounts on multiple platforms to spread fear of China’s vaccines among Muslims at a time when the virus was killing tens of thousands of people each day. A key part of the strategy: amplify the disputed contention that, because vaccines sometimes contain pork gelatin, China’s shots could be considered forbidden under Islamic law.”

“The military program started under former President Donald Trump and continued months into Joe Biden’s presidency, Reuters found – even after alarmed social media executives warned the new administration that the Pentagon had been trafficking in COVID misinformation. The Biden White House issued an edict in spring 2021 banning the anti-vax effort, which also disparaged vaccines produced by other rivals, and the Pentagon initiated an internal review, Reuters found.”

Read more here.

OPCW Fact-Finding Mission Concludes Latest Investigations into Reports in Syria

The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons recently announced its Fact-Finding Mission (FFM) in Syria concluded “…that the information obtained and analysed is not sufficient to provide reasonable grounds to determine that toxic chemicals were used as a weapon in the reported incidents that occurred on 9 August 2017 in Qalib al-Thawr and 8 November 2017 al-Balil, Hama Governorate, the Syrian Arab Republic.”

Read more about the FFM, these two reports from the Syrian Arab Republic, and the FFM’s conclusions here.

“Russia Spreads Disinformation to Cover Up Its Use of Chemical Weapons in Ukraine”

The Department of State’s Global Engagement Center recently published this report in several languages discussing Russia’s use of chemical weapons and its efforts to conceal that use in Ukraine. It explains in part, “Russia’s use of such chemicals is not an isolated incident, and is probably driven by Russian forces’ desire to dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions and drive them into the line of fire, the exact reason the CWC prohibits the use of RCA as method of warfare, and achieve tactical gains on the battlefield. Russia retains an undeclared chemical weapons program and has used chemical weapons, such as the Novichok nerve agents, at least twice in recent years in assassination attempts.”

“Catalyzing Crisis: A Primer on Artificial Intelligence, Catastrophes, and National Security”

Bill Drexel and Caleb Withers authored this report for CNAS: “The arrival of ChatGPT in November 2022 initiated both great excitement and fear around the world about the potential and risks of artificial intelligence (AI). In response, several AI labs, national governments, and international bodies have launched new research and policy efforts to mitigate large-scale AI risks. However, growing efforts to mitigate these risks have also produced a divisive and often confusing debate about how to define, distinguish, and prioritize severe AI hazards. This categorical confusion could complicate policymakers’ efforts to discern the unique features and national security implications of the threats AI poses—and hinder efforts to address them. Specifically, emerging catastrophic risks with weighty national security implications are often overlooked between the two dominant discussions about AI concern in public discourse: present-day systemic harms from AI related to bias and discrimination on the one hand, and cantankerous, future-oriented debates about existential risks from AI on the other.”

“This report aims to: Demonstrate the growing importance of mitigating AI’s catastrophic risks for national security practitioners, Clarify what AI’s catastrophic risks are (and are not), Introduce the dimensions of AI safety that will most shape catastrophic risks.”

“Driving AIxBio Innovation Through Data and Standardization”

The National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology recently published this paper: “If the United States wants to remain a leader in artificial intelligence (AI) and biotechnology (AIxBio), it must treat biological data as a strategic asset to support the next phase of AIxBio models. These models will rely on biological data sets of unprecedented scale, likely generated through high-throughput lab automation and new experimental methods. Biological data enable the use of AIxBio models, but advances in AIxBio are limited by the availability of appropriate and usable data.1 Additionally, data standardization would enable the United States to combine data from across its robust and diverse life science ecosystem to further advance AIxBio and maximize its potential benefits. This white paper describes considerations for generating and standardizing biological data to support continued AIxBio research, development, and application.”

“APP3 Statement on the Importance of Biosafety and Biosecurity in the Age of Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technologies”

This statement was recently released by the GHSA Action Package Prevent-3 on Biosafety and Biosecurity, Emerging Biological Risks Working Group: “As advances in AI and emerging technologies continue to increase worldwide quickly, there are growing concerns that AI tools and other emerging technologies could act synergistically with synthetic biotechnologies to cause significant harm. The APP3 believes it is imperative to understand further and mitigate the biological risks of AI and emerging biotechnologies, reduce the risk of technology misuse, and protect economic and global health security. Efforts to raise awareness within the GHSA community, cultivate responsible scientific work, strengthen biosecurity controls, and mitigate biological risks associated with new technologies globally are critical.”

Read more here.

“Why the Global Bioeconomy Urgently Needs Technical Standards and Metrics”

Paul Freemont, India Hook-Barnard, and Matthew Chang published this piece with the World Economic Forum, in which they write “The global bioeconomy is estimated to be worth about $4 trillion, and more than 50 nations now have published bioeconomy strategies or have policies steering towards a sustainable bioeconomy. With the development of new technologies in engineering and synthetic biology, the bioeconomy is growing rapidly…Growth of the sector will bring increased commercialization, scale-up and distributed manufacturing, and promote manufacturing resilience by diversifying production streams beyond traditional chemical manufacturing.”

“However, the current lack of standards and metrics that apply directly to such a large global industry could result in chaos, with failed interoperability and an inability to share data or allow for technology transfer internationally…The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has published only 35 standards directly related to biotechnology; in comparison, there are 79 published standards relating specifically to dental instruments…As such, there is a call from industry representatives and academics alike to develop technical standards and metrics that can be applied across the innovation pipeline to support the growth of the bioeconomy.”

“The Viral Most Wanted: The Orthomyxoviruses”

Kate Kelland continues CEPI’s “The Viral Most Wanted” with this latest installment: “It’s considered the most deadly single contagious disease event in all of human history and infected 500 million people worldwide—a third of the planet’s population.”

“It struck in three merciless waves—the first, relatively mild, in March 1918; the second, more brutal, in August 1918; and the third and deadliest of all in late 1918, running through the first few months of 1919.”

“It is estimated to have killed almost five times as many people as were killed during World War One.”

“More than half of the people it killed were fit, strong, healthy young adults in the prime of life—including millions of World War One soldiers.”

“Its victims often died within hours or days of developing symptoms. Their skin would turn blue and their lungs would fill with fluid, causing them to suffocate from within.”

“This was the Spanish Flu—the Great Influenza pandemic of 1918-1919—caused by a virus called influenza type A subtype H1N1. It and its many life-threatening relatives are part of the Orthomyxovirus family—one of The Viral Most Wanted.”

“Countering Disinformation and Misinformation in Animal Health Emergencies”

The World Organisation for Animal Health and INTERPOL recently released this set of guidelines: “To orient Veterinary Services, Aquatic Animal Health Services and Law Enforcement to these issues and introduce some key strategies to manage disinformation and misinformation, these guidelines have been prepared by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) and the International Criminal Police Organisation (INTERPOL). They draw from a June 2022 virtual workshop convened as part of the WOAH, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and INTERPOL Project on ‘building resilience against agro-crime and agro-terrorism’, which was funded by Global Affairs Canada’s Weapons Threat Reduction Program [1].”

“The guidelines provide a starting point for these services and agencies, as well as organisations working in animal health emergencies, to prepare for, detect and respond to disinformation and misinformation. Since this is a fast-moving area with much information and guidance already available, this document includes links to further resources that offer more detail on specific strategies and actions.”

“WHO Bacterial Priority Pathogens List, 2024: Bacterial Pathogens of Public Health Importance to Guide Research, Development and Strategies to Prevent and Control Antimicrobial Resistance”

From WHO: “The 2024 WHO Bacterial Priority Pathogens List (WHO BPPL) is an important tool in the global fight against antimicrobial resistance. Building on the 2017 edition, the 2024 WHO BPPL updates and refines the prioritization of antibiotic-resistant bacterial pathogens to address the evolving challenges of antibiotic resistance. The list categorizes these pathogens into critical, high, and medium priority groups to inform research and development (R&D) and public health interventions.”

“The 2024 WHO BPPL covers 24 pathogens, spanning 15 families of antibiotic-resistant bacterial pathogens. Notable among these are Gram-negative bacteria resistant to last-resort antibiotics, drug-resistant mycobacterium tuberculosis, and other high-burden resistant pathogens such as Salmonella, Shigella, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Staphylococcus aureus. The inclusion of these pathogens in the list underscores their global impact in terms of burden, as well as issues related to transmissibility, treatability, and prevention options. It also reflects the R&D pipeline of new treatments and emerging resistance trends.”

“The WHO BPPL acts as a guide for prioritizing R&D and investments in AMR, emphasizing the need for regionally tailored strategies to effectively combat resistance. It targets developers of antibacterial medicines, academic and public research institutions, research funders, and public–private partnerships investing in AMR R&D, as well as policy-makers responsible for developing and implementing AMR policies and programs.”

“Further details on the rationale behind the list, the methodologies used to develop the list and the key findings, can be found in the accompanying report.”

“A Long COVID Definition: A Chronic, Systemic Disease State with Profound Consequences”

From NASEM: “The lack of a clear and consistent definition for Long COVID presents challenges for policymakers, researchers, public health professionals, clinicians, support services, and patients. As such, the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Health asked the National Academies to assemble a committee of experts to produce a consensus definition for Long COVID. The resulting report, A Long COVID Definition: A Chronic, Systemic Disease State with Profound Consequences, presents the 2024 NASEM Long COVID Definition, developed based on findings reported in existing literature, as well as stakeholder and patient input.”

Read here.

“Pentagon Playing Catch Up After Years Neglecting Nuclear Protection”

Stew Magnuson recently published this piece in National Defense discussing the Army’s recent report, “An Independent Assessment of the Army’s Ability to Fight and Win on a Nuclear Battlefield.” He writes in part, “The Army Science Board in September completed work on a report, “An Independent Assessment of the Army’s Ability to Fight and Win on a Nuclear Battlefield.”

“Its conclusions were not revealed to the public and are available to read only on classified networks. But listening to a handful of government experts at a recent presentation who did have access to the report, its overall conclusions must be alarming.”

What We’re Listening to 🎧

Voices from DARPA Podcast Episode 79: Integrating ELSI
“In this episode, we’ll be taking a deeper dive into ELSI – ethical, legal, and societal implications of new technologies and capabilities – and specific examples of how DARPA programs have incorporated those considerations into their structure.”

“We’re highlighting three examples of how DARPA integrated ELSI throughout the program lifecycle via the counsel of experts from the medical, scientific, legal, and ethics communities to assist program managers and performers in identifying and mitigating any potential issues.”

“The first program, out of our Biological Technologies Office, is Safe Genes, which supported force protection and military health and readiness by developing tools and methodologies to control, counter, and even reverse the effects of genome editing—including gene drives—in biological systems across scales.”

“The second program, Urban Reconnaissance through Supervised Autonomy (URSA) from our Tactical Technology Office (TTO) aimed to enable improved techniques for rapidly discriminating hostile intent and filtering out threats in complex urban environments.”

“And, finally, the current In the Moment program in our Information Innovation Office (I2O) seeks to identify key attributes underlying trusted human decision-making in dynamic settings and computationally representing those attributes, to generate a quantitative alignment framework for a trusted human decision-maker and an algorithm.”

Listen here.

NEW: Upcoming Hearing on COVID-19 Origins

“Biodefense Program Director, Dr. Gregory Koblentz, will be testifying at the upcoming Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs hearing on “Origins of COVID-19: An Examination of Available Evidence,” which will be held on Tuesday, June 19 at 10 AM. Also testifying will be Dr. Robert Garry from Tulane University, Dr. Stephen C. Quay from Atossa Therapeutics, and Dr. Richard H. Ebright from Rutgers University.”

NEW: Why Isn’t the World Ready for the Next Pandemic? How Can It Be?

From the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response: “The Right Honourable Helen Clark and Her Excellency Ellen Johnson Sirleaf explore these questions and provide answers in their new report: No Time to Gamble: Leaders Must Unite to Prevent Pandemics.”

This virtual event will take place on June 18 at 1 pm CET. Learn more and register here.

NEW: IRF Book Launch: Essentials of Biological Security: A Global Perspective

The Interdisciplinary Research Forum is hosting this book launch for Essentials of Biological Security: A Global Perspective by Lijun Shang, Weiwen Zhang, and Malcolm Dando: “Improving biosecurity education appears to be a key means to address the need for awareness raising and education about the dangers of the dual use research for life scientists within a culture of responsible research under BTWC or CBW. Although it has been advocated for a long time, it still presents a challenging task for all stakeholders, especially for life science communities.”

“In this launching workshop, the leading editor Professor Lijun Shang will explain the background of initiation of this book, including the purpose and strategy plan of using the book to implement biosecurity education. Professor Malcolm Dando will give an overview of the book with brief introduction of each chapter, and Professor Weiwen Zhang will talk about our promotion plan for this book, including translation, workshops, and future publication plans.”

“We will also have chapter authors to brieﬂy introduce their individual chapters either in person or through a video recording. Finally, we will have Iris Magne to talk about our plans of using this book as a ﬁrst stepping stone in the current project of Building up An International Security Education Network to include the book.”

This event will take place on June 14 at 2 pm BST. Learn more and register here.

NEW: DARPA B-SAFE Industry Day

From DARPA: “The rapidly evolving field of advanced genome editing tools has enabled the ability to modify genetic material in a manner that is precise, rapid, cost-effective, and broadly accessible. Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) and CRISPR-associated protein (Cas) or CRISPR-Cas technologies represent one of the most widely adopted tools in the genome engineering toolkit, and its advancement has revolutionized the field of biotechnology and genetic engineering. However, concerns regarding the precision, specificity, and control of CRISPR-Cas systems remain. The DARPA Broad-Spectrum Antagonists For Editors, or B-SAFE, program aims to develop platform technologies for highly potent inhibitors for multiple classes, types, and species of editors with enhanced activity, utility, and breadth of coverage. The B-SAFE program will also address the challenge of inhibitor molecules keeping pace with the discovery of novel editing systems by developing a platform for rapid discovery and development of inhibitors of novel, emergent gene editor technologies. The B-SAFE program will produce tools capable of complete inhibition of CRISPR-Cas systems with minimal off-target effects. Platforms must be capable of inhibiting DNA editors (Cas9 and Cas12 species) but approaches that also include RNA editors, other DNA editors, and emerging technologies are encouraged. The ideal solution would be capable of inhibiting all Cas9 and Cas12 species.”

This event will take place virtually and in-person on June 28. Learn more and register here.

The Advancing Threat Agnostic Biodefense Webinar Series-Computational and Systems Biology Advances to Enable Bioagent Agnostic Signatures

From PNNL: “Join us as we welcome Andy Lin, Computational Biologist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. His talk, titled “Computational and Systems Biology Advances to Enable Bioagent Agnostic Signatures” will be Tuesday, June 18, at noon PT.”

“Enumerated threat agent lists have long driven biodefense priorities. The global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic demonstrated the limitations of searching for known threat agents as compared to a more agnostic approach. Recent technological advances are enabling agent-agnostic biodefense, especially through the integration of multi-modal observations of host-pathogen interactions directed by a human immunological model.”

“Although well-developed technical assays exist for many aspects of human-pathogen interaction, the analytic methods and pipelines to combine and holistically interpret the results of such assays are immature and require further investments to exploit new technologies.”

“In this talk, we discuss potential immunologically based bioagent-agnostic approaches and the computational tool gaps the community should prioritize filling.”

Registration for GHS 2024 Now Open

Registration is now open for the Global Health Security 2024 conference in Sydney, Australia. This iteration will take place 18-21 June, 2024. The call for abstracts is also still open. “The mission of the Global Health Security conference is to provide a forum where leaders, researchers, policy-makers, and representatives from government, international organisations, civil society, and private industry from around the world can engage with each other, review the latest research and policy innovations, and agree solutions for making the world safer and healthier. To that end, our mission is to help foster a genuinely multidisciplinary community of practice that is committed to working collaboratively to enhance global health security and eliminate disease, irrespective of its origin or source.”

SBA.3 International Synthetic Biology, and Biosecurity Conference in Africa

“Join us for the SBA.3 International Synthetic Biology and Biosecurity Conference in Africa, a groundbreaking event that brings together experts, researchers, and enthusiasts in the field of synthetic biology. This in-person conference will take place at the Laico Regency Hotel from Wed, Jul 17, 2024 to Friday, Jul 19, 2024.”

“Get ready to dive into the exciting world of synthetic biology and explore its potential applications in Africa. From cutting-edge research to innovative solutions, this conference offers a unique opportunity to learn, network, and collaborate with like-minded individuals.”

“Discover the latest advancements, trends, and challenges in synthetic biology through engaging keynote speeches, interactive workshops, and thought-provoking panel discussions. Immerse yourself in a vibrant atmosphere where ideas flow freely and new connections are made.”

“Whether you’re a seasoned professional or just starting your journey in synthetic biology, this conference provides a platform to expand your knowledge, exchange ideas, and contribute to the growth of the field in Africa.”

“Don’t miss out on this extraordinary event that promises to shape the future of synthetic biology and biosecurity in Africa. Mark your calendars and join us at the SBA.3 International Synthetic Biology and Biosecurity Conference in Africa!”

Learn more and register here.

Jobs Postings: Detailee (Current Federal Employee), Policy Analyst, Policy Advisor

The National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology (NSCEB) currently has multiple job openings for those who are current federal employees or those who already hold a TS clearance with TS/SCI preferred. Learn more and apply here.

Job Posting: Research Associate (Global Health Law & Governance)

The National University of Singapore is currently hiring a research associate focused on global health law and governance: “The Global Health Law and Governance Program at the NUS Centre for international Law is recruiting a one-year Research Associate position. The Program focuses on the international legal, regulatory and governance aspects of pandemic prevention and response, as well as international public health emergencies. Topics of interest include the World Health Organization’s negotiations on a new pandemic accord, the revision of the International Health Regulations, improving fair and equitable access to medicines, access and benefit sharing of pathogen samples/genetic sequencing data, intellectual property and technology transfer, global health innovation and technologies, and more. The program conducts research, offers education and training, and organizes events. The Research Associate will support the work of the Program and will also undertake a personal research project.”

Learn more and apply here.

Pandora Report 5.10.2024

May 10, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report covers a new interim staff report from the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, the new United States Government Policy for Oversight of Dual Use Research of Concern and Pathogens with Enhanced Pandemic Potential, the OPCW’s statement on Russia’s alleged use of toxic chemicals as weapons in Ukraine, and more.

GMU Biodefense Students Visit National Museum of Health and Medicine

“Late last month a cadre of students from the Schar School of Policy and Government’s biodefense graduate program visited the National Museum of Health and Medicine in Silver Spring, Maryland, not far from the George Mason University campuses.”

“The 150-year-old museum is known for its collections that depict the human anatomy and everything that can befall it, in sometimes stark and gory detail. What else would you expect from a museum with a pathology guide with listings for “bilateral nephrolithiasis (kidney stones),” “liver, hydatid cyst from tape worm,” and an all-time-favorite, “trichobezoar (human hairball from stomach).”’

Read more about this visit here on the Schar School’s website.

*GMU Biodefense students at the National Museum of Health and Medicine*

Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic Interim Staff Report Calls for Daszak, EcoHealth Alliance Debarment

Earlier this month, the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic’s chairman, Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-OH), released an interim staff report-“An Evaluation of the Evidence Surrounding EcoHealth Alliance, Inc.’s Research Activities”. The press release explains in part, “This report details the Select Subcommittee’s comprehensive investigation into the U.S. government’s funding and lack of oversight of gain-of-function research, EcoHealth Alliance (EcoHealth), and the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). The report reveals serious, systemic weaknesses in the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and National Institutes of Health’s (NIH) grant procedures and examines how these failures enabled EcoHealth President Dr. Peter Daszak to fund dangerous gain-of-function research in Wuhan, China without sufficient oversight.”

The select subcommittee’s recommendations include:

“The Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic recommends that EcoHealth Alliance and Dr. Peter Daszak are formally debarred and cut off from receiving any future U.S. taxpayer funding.”
“The Select Subcommittee also recommends that the U.S. Department of Justice conduct a formal investigation into Dr. Daszak.”
“Further, the Select Subcommittee recommends eight improvements to NIAID and NIH procedures that will improve grant compliance, increase biosafety and biosecurity of high-risk research, and advance transparency and accountability in America’s federal health agencies.”

Daszak testified before the select subcommittee on the day the report was released, which was covered by Matt Field in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Field explains in his coverage that Daszak was grilled by members of both major political parties during the subcommittee’s hearing on May 1, writing “On Wednesday, however, members of both US political parties came armed with blistering criticism for Peter Daszak, the head of the nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance, questioning his honesty in dealing with federal agencies and skewering his alleged conflicts of interests as he attempted to assume the role of a leading scientific voice on the pandemic’s origins. Beginning in 2014, EcoHealth ran a US-funded, multimillion-dollar project to identify hotspots where patterns of interaction between humans and animals could spark disease outbreaks.”

He later writes, “They hammered away on one of the plot points in the origins debate, EcoHealth’s transparency in reporting on its studies to the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Over the course of one five-year grant, EcoHealth was supposed to submit annual reports. One of those, covering 2018-2019, came two years late. Daszak claimed that EcoHealth had tried to submit the report, but the NIH had a problem with its computerized reporting platform. According to a report by the subcommittee’s Democrats, however, a forensic audit found no evidence for this assertion.”

Chairman Wenstrup said in a statement, ““EcoHealth Alliance President Dr. Peter Daszak is not a good steward of U.S. taxpayer dollars and should never again receive funding from the U.S. taxpayer. Dr. Daszak and his organization conducted dangerous gain-of-function research at the WIV, willfully violated the terms of a multi-million-dollar NIH grant, and placed U.S. national security at risk. This blatant contempt for the American people is reprehensible. It is imperative to establish higher standards of oversight at the NIH. The Select Subcommittee’s detailed and comprehensive report today holds Dr. Daszak and EcoHealth Alliance accountable and sheds light on severe shortcomings in our public health systems.”

US Agencies Set to Tighten Gain-of-Function Research Oversight

This White House announced this week the new United States Government Policy for Oversight of Dual Use Research of Concern and Pathogens with Enhanced Pandemic Potential and accompanying implementation guidance, following years of public debate and recommendations made by the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity. As the New York Times explains, “The new policy, which applies to research funded by the federal government, strengthens the government’s oversight by replacing a short list of dangerous pathogens with broad categories into which more pathogens might fall. The policy pays attention not only to human pathogens, but also those that could threaten crops and livestock. And it provides more details about the kinds of experiments that would draw the attention of government regulators.”

Read Max Kozlov’s summary and discussion of this new policy in Nature.

Emergent BioSolutions Announces Layoff Plans, Plant Closures

Emergent BioSolutions, the Gaithersburg-based company best known for producing Narcan, has announced it is shuttering its Maryland manufacturing facilities and laying off about 300 employees. This includes its Baltimore-Bayview Drug Substance manufacturing facility and its Rockville Drug Product facility, according to The Baltimore Banner. The company has also said it will eliminate 85 currently vacant positions. This is all on top of the more than 230 Maryland employees Emergent laid off last year.

Emergent drew national attention in the summer of 2021 after the company, which had secured a government contract to produce COVID-19 vaccines on behalf of Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca, came under Congressional scrutiny for potentially contaminating at least 75 million vaccine doses. Furthermore, as The New York Times highlighted at the time, “With its stock price cut in half, Emergent faces several shareholder lawsuits accusing it of securities fraud, and a pension fund filed a complaint last Tuesday claiming that some executives and board members — including several former federal officials — had engaged in insider trading by unloading more than $20 million worth of stock over the past 15 months.”

An investigation found that Emergent was forced to destroy or discard up to 400 million doses’ worth of ingredients for COVID-19 vaccines. ABC News explained in a piece about the report that “Congressional investigators probing the Maryland-based biotech company found that Emergent executives had privately raised urgent quality-control concerns even before the company began manufacturing the vaccines’ key ingredient — despite publicly expressing confidence in their ability to deliver on their multimillion-dollar government contract.”

‘”Despite major red flags at its vaccine manufacturing facility, Emergent’s executives swept these problems under the rug and continued to rake in taxpayer dollars,” House Oversight and Reform Committee Chairwoman Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., said of the report, which determined that the company’s “manufacturing failures and deceptive tactics” led to the large-scale waste of ingredients that could have helped make millions of vaccine doses.”

Emergent’s stock price did jump following the announcement of the layoffs, finishing yesterday at $4.37 up from $1.93 on May 1, a far cry from the $130 its shares were traded for in August 2020. According to The Baltimore Banner, “The company estimated that the restructuring will cost up to $21 million this year and save the company about $80 million annually. In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Emergent said most of those initial costs will be related to severance and benefits.”

OPCW Releases Statement on Ukraine

The OPCW released this week a statement about Russia’s alleged use of toxic chemicals as weapons in Ukraine. It reads in part “The Secretariat of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has been monitoring the situation on the territory of Ukraine since the start of the war in February 2022 in relation to allegations of use of toxic chemicals as weapons…The information provided to the Organisation so far by both sides, together with the information available to the Secretariat, is insufficiently substantiated.”

Read more here.

Mason Biodefense Graduate Program Director Discusses AI, Biological Weapons Risks with CNN

Biodefense Graduate Program Director Gregory Koblentz was recently interviewed in this May 5 CNN Newsroom segment covering AI and biological weapons proliferation risks. It was filmed ahead of the release of an episode of CNN’s “How It Really Happened” focused on the 2001 Amerithrax attacks.

“2024 U.S. Department of State Report on North Korea’s ‘Genetic Scissors’ Technology and Capabilities and Its National Security Implications”

This report from the Institute for National Security Strategy was co-authored by Biodefense PhD Program alumnus Hyun Jung Kim: “The recent U.S. State Department’s report, titled “2024 Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments,” articulates that North Korea has acquired the capability to genetically engineer biological products utilizing CRISPR. This report raises alarms over the potential transformation of this genetic engineering technology into an offensive biological weapons program. CRISPR, often referred to as ‘genetic scissor’ technology, renowned for its ability to precisely cut and replace sections of the genome, holds promise for groundbreaking developments in medicine, agriculture, and energy sectors. However, this technology also faces several challenges, including ethical and institutional issues and safety concerns. The national security threats posed by the advancement of North Korea’s genetic engineering technology include unconventional warfare tactics such as terrorism and targeted assassinations, the potential leakage of genetically modified bioagents due to laboratory accidents, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Furthermore, the same report notes the development of ‘dual-use marine toxins’ by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, which may imply possible strategic cooperation and coordination between China and North Korea in the development of biological toxins, posing a significant challenge to the international security landscape.”

“China, Biotechnology, and BGI: How China’s Hybrid Economy Skews Competition”

Anna Puglisi and Chryssa Rask recently published this issue brief with Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology: “As the U.S. government considers banning genomics companies from China, it opens a broader question about how the United States and other market economies should deal with China’s “national champions.” This paper provides an overview of one such company—BGI—and how China’s industrial policy impacts technology development in China and around the world.”

“The National Blueprint for Biodefense: Immediate Action Needed to Defend Against Biological Threats”

This latest report from the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense urges policymakers to adopt several measures to help sustain and grow US biodefense, including establishing a congressional working group focused on biodefense at the start of each Congress, making amendments to the Public Health Service Act in order to “produce a research and development plan for reducing pathogen transmission in built environments,” and replacing BioWatch.

In addition to the report linked above, Axios’ Alison Snyder has summarized the report and provided context to its recommendations here.

“Twenty Years of Preparedness: Reflecting on the Legacy of the Project BioShield Act of 2004”

Adey Pierce-Watkins and Tanima Sinha recently published this report for BDO: “This July 2, 2024, marks the 20th anniversary of The Project BioShield Act of 2004 (P.L. 108-276); legislation enacted in response to the anthrax attacks of September 2001, which revealed the need for development and acquisition of medical countermeasures (vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics) to protect the U.S. population from chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats. This Act, and associated Congressional Appropriations, established a Special Reserve Fund (SRF) of $5.593B advanced funding available over a 10-year period for the advanced development and procurement of medical countermeasures with the intent of initiating a new posture of national preparedness.1 Simultaneously, this legislation created new market incentives for pharmaceutical and biotech companies to engage in the development of CBRN medical countermeasures and transformed the partnership between the federal government and industry into a shared responsibility for increasing preparedness against CBRN threats. As a result, this legislation and the SRF created a “guaranteed market” for pharmaceutical companies to produce CBRN medical countermeasures for which there previously was no commercial demand…In recognition of the 20th Anniversary of The Project BioShield Act, it is fitting to highlight the impact and milestones of this legislation based on its intended purpose and outcomes to date.”

“It Shouldn’t Be Easy to Buy Synthetic DNA Fragments to Recreate the 1918 Flu Virus”

Kevin M. Esvelt recently authored this piece for STAT News, writing in part “It should be hard — exceedingly hard — to obtain the synthetic DNA needed to recreate the virus that caused the deadly 1918 influenza pandemic without authorization. But my lab found that it’s surprisingly easy, even when ordering gene fragments from companies that check customers’ orders to detect hazardous sequences…Our experiment demonstrates that the immense potential benefits of biotechnology are profoundly vulnerable to misuse. A pandemic caused by a virus made from synthetic DNA — or even a lesser instance of synthetic bioterrorism — would not only generate a public health crisis but also trigger crippling restrictions on research.”

Applied Biosafety Special Issues on Biosafety and Biosecurity for Synthetic Genomics

Applied Biosafety‘s first and second special issues focused on biosafety and biosecurity for synthetic genomics is now available online. Articles include “Enhancing Gene Synthesis Security: An Updated Framework for Synthetic Nucleic Acid Screening and the Responsible Use of Synthetic Biological Materials,” “Developing a Common Global Baseline for Nucleic Acid Synthesis Screening,” Biosecurity Risk Assessment for the Use of Artificial Intelligence in Synthetic Biology,” “Biosecurity Assessments for Emerging Transdisciplinary Biotechnologies: Revisiting Biodefense in an Age of Synthetic Biology,” and more.

“Supporting Follow-Up Screening for Flagged Nucleic Acid Synthesis Orders”

Tessa Alexanian and Sella Nevo recently published this briefer with CSR’s Nolan Center, writing in part “Medical diagnostics, biomanufacturing, and many other parts of the bioeconomy rely on synthetic DNA and RNA purchases, which are ordered from commercial providers and shipped to laboratories around the globe. In addition to enabling beneficial biotechnology, affordable and accessible nucleic acid synthesis raises biosecurity concerns: some sequences can be used to reconstruct pathogen genomes or engineer dangerous biological agents, and it’s necessary to ensure those sequences are not misused by actors seeking to cause harm.”

“Most commercial synthesis providers screen the orders they receive to identify sequences of concern that could facilitate the construction of dangerous biological agents. When sequences in an order are flagged, follow-up screening determines whether the order is fulfilled. This screening centers on the customer: do they have a legitimate, peaceful purpose for obtaining the flagged sequences of concern?”

“This follow-up screening is the subject of this briefer. Between July and August 2023, we interviewed industry contacts and other policy and biosecurity experts. In the subsequent months, we conducted independent research and solicited expert feedback on report drafts. This process made clear that today, the follow-up screening process is ad-hoc. The customer service representatives, bioinformaticians, and security experts conducting follow-up screening often lack support for handling ambiguous cases, and there is little infrastructure to support information-sharing with other synthesis providers or law enforcement…”

“Developing a Customer Screening Framework for the Life Sciences”

A new report from Blueprint Biosecurity: “Since the 1970’s and the advent of recombinant DNA, biology has consistently become easier to engineer, and the pace of these advances is increasing. Many tools and capabilities for engineering biology are becoming more powerful, more affordable, and more widely available. These capabilities are critical for basic scientific research as well as advances in health, agriculture, and a wide range of applications in the burgeoning bioeconomy. However, access to these tools also raises the possibility that they could be accidentally or deliberately misused to cause harm by enabling development of toxins, pathogens, or other dangerous biological agents, including some not found in nature. Potential biological harms include high-consequence events such as the development and release of an engineered pathogen that causes a global catastrophe as well as a wide range of lower-consequence, higher-likelihood events. To prevent this type of misuse, policy experts have recommended expanding customer screening practices and policy frameworks to include a broad range of life sciences products, services, and infrastructure (Carter and DiEuliis, 2019a). Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have increased this type of risk and have intensified these calls for action (Carter, et al., 2023; Helena, 2023).”

“To Combat Cow Flu Outbreak, Scientists Plan to Infect Cattle with Influenza in High-Security Labs”

Science’s Kai Kupferschmidt discusses current efforts to better understand H5N1 in this piece, writing in part “The avian influenza virus that has been infecting dairy cows and spreading alarm in the United States was expected to reach Germany this week. But that’s actually good news. A shipment of samples of the H5N1 virus from Cornell University virologist Diego Diel is destined for the Federal Research Institute for Animal Health in Riems, which has one of the rare high-security labs worldwide that are equipped to handle such dangerous pathogens in cattle and other large animals. There, veterinarian Martin Beer will use the samples to infect dairy cows, in search of a fuller picture of the threat the virus poses, to both cattle and people, than researchers have been able to glean from spotty data collected in the field.”

“Biodiversity Loss is Biggest Driver of Infectious Disease Outbreaks, Says Study”

This piece from The Guardian discusses the findings of a recent Nature meta-analysis: “New infectious diseases are on the rise and they often originate in wildlife. In meta-analysis published in the journal Nature, researchers found that of all the “global change drivers” that are destroying ecosystems, loss of species was the greatest in increasing the risk of outbreaks. Biodiversity loss was followed by climate change and introduction of non-native species.”

“Washington Accuses Russia of Chemical Weapons Attacks in Ukraine”

Andrea Stricker and Anthony Ruggiero recently authored this piece for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies that summarizes the United States’ claim that Russia has used CW in Ukraine, writing in part “The United States last week accused Russia of using chemical weapons against Ukrainian troops and sanctioned 12 Russian entities and individuals associated with Vladimir Putin’s ongoing chemical weapons program. The finding points to yet another instance of Moscow’s violation of international norms and conventions through the continued possession, stockpiling, and use of chemical weapons.”

“The Alleged Use of Chemical Weapons in Ukraine: How the International Community Can Investigate”

Ahmet Üzümcü recently authored this commentary piece for the European Leadership Network, explaining in part “I have summarised above the different mechanisms employed in the recent past to investigate allegations of the use of chemical weapons. I believe that one of them might be activated to investigate reported incidents in Ukraine. Whichever is selected may not enjoy the support of the whole membership; however, if one of the options is chosen, it needs to be practical and produce concrete results despite the challenges associated with the ongoing conflict. One of the strengths of the OPCW’s robust verification and compliance regime has always been its level of expertise and objectivity in the area of chemical weapons. The international community could leverage these strengths to test the veracity of the allegations that have been levelled against Russia about chemical weapons use during the armed conflict in Ukraine. The States Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention should support such an initiative for two reasons: first, to provide a deterrent effect against further alleged uses of chemical weapons, and second, to uphold the integrity and credibility of the Chemical Weapons Convention, which is one of the pillars of the rules-based international order.”

ICYMI: Biological Weapons Convention Scientific and Technological Advisory Mechanism

From the UN Institute for Disarmament Research: “The Friends of the Chair, together with UNIDIR and @unitednations_disarmament, organized this informal webinar on a BWC scientific and technological advisory mechanism. This webinar was designed to support ongoing activities of the BWC Working Group and to stimulate thinking and discussion around a mechanism during the intersessional period. The event consisted of an expert panel followed by a moderated question-and-answer session with the audience.”

Watch here.

NEW-Slaves to the Bomb: The Role & Fate of N. Korea’s Nuclear Scientists

“The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) is delighted to invite you to the rollout of its latest report, Slaves to the Bomb: The Role & Fate of North Korea’s Nuclear Scientists by Robert Collins. The event will be open to the press and on the record. The report will be published on HRNK’s website on the day of the report rollout.”

This event will take place on May 17, at 3 pm EST. Learn more and RSVP here.

NEW-Getting Ahead of Avian Influenza: Why Organizations Need to Prepare Today

From Bluedot: “Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1), commonly referred to as bird flu, has been making headlines around the world, as the virus rapidly spreads to new animal species. Already the cause of a panzootic (global animal pandemic), last month a human H5N1 case was reported in the U.S. after likely contracting it from infected dairy cattle. The virus has now been detected in dairy herds across multiple states, with evidence to suggest it has been spreading more widely than previously thought — begging the question: Are we at risk for an avian influenza-instigated pandemic?”

“Join us for a deep dive into avian influenza as we explore why and how organizations should prepare to safeguard against bird flu. Together, through collaborative efforts and informed decision-making, we can mitigate the risk of increased transmission to humans. BlueDot’s experts have been closely monitoring the situation and potential risks, issuing multiple alerts on H5N1 — and other avian influenzas — over the past 15 months.”

This event will take place on May 23, at 11 am ET. Learn more and register here.

Biosafety and the Origin of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence and Policy Implications

From Brookings: “The world just lived through the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 7 million reported direct deaths globally, more than 775 million reported cases, more than 14 million indirect excess deaths, and likely millions more unreported deaths. Despite the devastating effects on people and economies around the world, we still do not know with certainty how the pandemic originated, with the two most likely hypotheses either a natural spillover from an animal host or a research lab leak. Finding an answer to this question is not just a matter of doing justice to the millions of victims of COVID-19—it will have significant ramifications for policy implementation to help prevent the next pandemic.”

“Importantly, the catastrophic impact of the COVID-19 disease has shown us that preventing the next pandemic and biosafety in general should be top of mind for researchers, regulators, policymakers and public health officials, and it will likely require an array of measures by private, public, and nongovernmental organizations. This includes reconsidering our early warning systems for emergent diseases from the natural world, and taking a closer look at research with dangerous pathogens in biolabs. Identifying the origins of the recent pandemic can help target those efforts.”

“On May 14, the Brookings Center on Regulation and Markets will address these complex questions. First, Alina Chan, scientific advisor at the Broad Institute, and Alison Young, Curtis B. Hurley chair in public affairs reporting at the University of Missouri School of Journalism, will explain why the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus matters for public policy. Then, a balanced expert panel will debate the two most likely origins: natural spillover or a leak from a lab. A final panel of biosafety experts will discuss what measures would be best suited to improve biosafety and reduce the risks for research-related lab incidents as well as future pandemics. This event is a part of the CRM series on Reimagining Modern-day Markets and Regulations.”

This online event will take place on May 14 at 1:30 pm EDT. Learn more and access the event here.

Addressing the Challenges Posed by Chemical and Biological Weapons: Intensive Online Introductory Course for Students of Technical Disciplines

“SIPRI and the European Union Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Consortium (EUNPDC) invite graduate and postgraduate students of the technical or natural science disciplines to apply for an intensive online introductory course on chemical and biological weapons—their proliferation, the efforts to eliminate them, the various mechanisms used to control their spread—and endeavours underway to reduce the risk of chemical or biological agents in terrorist attacks. The course will take place online, during four half-days on 28–31 May 2024, 14:00 to 18:00 Central European Summer Time (CEST).”

“The course will cover the fundamentals of chemical and biological weapons as well as of missiles and other means of delivery; the history of chemical and biological warfare; the evolution of international norms against these weapons; the threats associated with potential terrorist uses of chemical and biological material; bioweapons and other related scientific advances; the current challenges posed by chemical weapons; arms control treaties; and mechanisms to curb the spread of dangerous substances, including export controls.”

“The course will also discuss the role of the EU institutions and industry to address the challenges mentioned above. The course will be instructed by renowned experts on non-proliferation, arms control, disarmament, export controls, verification and related subjects from SIPRI, other European research centres, think tanks and international organizations.”

Learn more and apply here.

Registration for GHS 2024 Now Open

SBA.3 International Synthetic Biology, and Biosecurity Conference in Africa

Learn more and register here.

IBBIS Announces The Common Mechanism

The International Biosecurity and Biosafety Initiative for Science (IBBIS) recently launched The Common Mechanism, “An open-source, globally available tool for DNA synthesis screening.” The organization explains on its website that “The Common Mechanism helps providers of synthetic DNA and RNA to effectively screen orders to prevent synthesis technology from being exploited. We provide free, distributed, open-source, automated software for screening sequences of nucleic acids (including DNA and RNA) as well as resources to facilitate customer screening.”

Learn more and access the tool here.

Pandora Report 3.22.2024

March 22, 2024March 22, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

Happy Friday! This week’s Pandora Report covers progress on the ninth round of negotiations on a Pandemic Accord and proposed amendments to the International Health Regulations, Murthy v. Missouri and the evolving threat of health and medical misinformation, a recently launched Senate biodefense and life science research investigation, EPA’s warnings about cyberattacks against the United States’ water infrastructure and more.

Global Leaders Call for Urgent Agreement on a Pandemic Accord

More than 100 global leaders have made a call “to press for an urgent agreement from international negotiators on a Pandemic Accord, under the Constitution of the World Health Organization, to bolster the world’s collective preparedness and response to future pandemics,” according to a recent WHO press release. It comes as member states of the WHO look to finalize an agreement that would amend the 2005 International Health Regulations (IHR), which will be considered by the World Health Assembly in May. David P. Fidler explains what is at stake during this ninth round of deliberations in a recent piece for CFR’s Think Global Health, writing in part “WHO documents on the negotiations, along with commentary parsing the talks, indicate that WHO member states have much to do in a short period to deliver final drafts of a pandemic agreement and amended IHR to the World Health Assembly. Unresolved issues include problems that have long confounded global health governance, including equitable access to pharmaceutical products, financing for public health capacity-building, and government accountability. Even if the negotiations achieve breakthroughs on those problems, the task of turning reforms on paper into reality in practice confronts a world in which solidarity is increasingly in short supply.”

The letter challenges those who argue such amendments will harm national sovereignty, reading in part, “A new pandemic threat will emerge; there is no excuse not to be ready for it. It is thus imperative to build an effective, multisectoral, and multilateral approach to pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response. Given the unpredictable nature of public-health risks, a global strategy must embody a spirit of openness and inclusiveness. There is no time to waste, which is why we are calling on all national leaders to redouble their efforts to complete the accord by the May deadline.”

“Beyond protecting countless lives and livelihoods, the timely delivery of a global pandemic accord would send a powerful message: even in our fractured and fragmented world, international cooperation can still deliver global solutions to global problems.”

SCOTUS Hears Case Concerning Social Media Platforms, Pandemic Misinformation

The Supreme Court heard arguments this week in Murthy v. Missouri, a case concerning the First Amendment and whether the Biden administration violated the right to freedom of expression in its communications with social media companies regarding COVID-19-related misinformation. The lawsuit, one of 26 filed against the administration by former Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, alleges that the Biden administration was “…working with social media giants such as Meta, Twitter, and YouTube to censor and suppress free speech, including truthful information, related to COVID-19, election integrity, and other topics, under the guise of combating ‘misinformation.”

NYT‘s Dani Blum explains how this has refocused attention on misinformation and its evolving nature, writing in part “Health hacks not backed by science have spread widely on social media platforms. The same kinds of conspiracy theories that helped to fuel vaccine hesitancy during the Covid-19 pandemic are now undermining trust in vaccines against other diseases, including measles, as more people have lost con fidence in public health experts and institutions. And rapid developments in artificial intelligence have made it even harder for people to tell what’s true and what’s false online.”

Blum continues, writing “Misinformation commonly includes “fake experts,” according to Sander van der Linden, a professor of social psychology in society at Cambridge who researches misinformation. These are either people making health claims who do not have any medical credentials, or doctors making statements about topics that they are not experts in. “You wouldn’t want to go to an ear and nose doctor to do a heart operation,” he said. “Is this a vaccine expert, or is this a doctor who actually does no research and has no expertise on vaccinations?”’

The effects of this are being keenly felt by healthcare providers. Amanda Johnson, a primary care physician in New York City, told USA Today about her approach to working with patients who have fallen victim to such information, saying “(Frustration) doesn’t get us anywhere. I think those conversations are more likely to go poorly if you take it as a personal affront.”

The same article explains further that “She has talked about misinformation with patients, some of whom have even asked her to review social media posts they’ve seen. The most animated responses come from patients who believe they’re losing control or having something forced on them, said Johnson, who also leads NYC Health + Hospitals’ AfterCare program for New Yorkers recovering from COVID-19 or living with long COVID.”

“Many people are disparaging or dismissive when talking about people who believe misinformation, but it can happen to anyone, said Sedona Chinn, an assistant professor in the life sciences communication department at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.”

Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Announces Bipartisan Biodefense and Life Science Research Investigation

In a statement this week, the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee announced, “U.S. Senators Gary Peters (D-MI) and Rand Paul (R-KY), Chairman and Ranking Member of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, announced a joint investigation of national security threats posed by high-risk biological research and technology in the U.S. and abroad. Peters and Paul plan to hold hearings and conduct government-wide oversight on areas including high-risk life science research, biodefense, synthetic biology, biosafety and biosecurity lapses, early warning capabilities for emerging outbreaks or possible attacks, and potential origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. This bipartisan oversight effort will assess and identify measures to mitigate longstanding and emerging risks and threats that may result in serious biological incidents – whether deliberate, accidental, or natural. The investigation will also seek to increase transparency and strengthen oversight of taxpayer-funded life sciences research, laboratories in the U.S. and abroad, and detection of biological threats.”

This is likely to add fire to efforts to impose new restrictions on contracted Chinese research firms like WuXi AppTec, as highlighted by Axios. At the same time, this will likely further reveal partisan divides on the topic, particularly given Paul’s emphasis on the Biden administration’s alleged efforts to conceal critical information about the COVID-19 pandemic.

EPA Confirms China- and Iran-Backed Hackers Are Targeting US Drinking Water Systems

“The country’s water systems are being hit with an increasing number of nation-state cyberattacks, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA),” explains a recent news article. In a recent letter to governors from EPA Administrator Michael Regan and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, the pair wrote ‘“We need your support to ensure that all water systems in your state comprehensively assess their current cybersecurity practices.”’ They also emphasized that, in many cases, “even basic cybersecurity precautions, are not present at water treatment facilities, urging that this “can mean the difference between business as usual and a disruptive cyberattack.”

CNN reports that “The EPA will also set up a “task force” to “identify the most significant vulnerabilities of water systems to cyberattacks,” among other pressing issues, Regan and Sullivan said in their letter. The Biden officials invited state homeland security and environmental officials to a meeting to discuss cybersecurity improvements needed in the water sector.”

This comes after industrial equipment at multiple water facilities in the US was hacked late last year, displaying an anti-Israel message, according to US officials. The administration blamed the Iranian government for these attacks. Hackers backed by the Chinese state have also recently infiltrated US water facilities, in “…a hacking campaign that the Biden administration worries Beijing could use to disrupt critical infrastructure in the event of a conflict with the US. China denies the allegations.”

US Hosts Launch for New Foreign Ministry Channel for Global Health Security

Recently, the US Department of State announced that Ambassador John Nkengasong – U.S. Global AIDS Coordinator and Senior Bureau Official for Global Health Security and Diplomacy, overseeing the Department’s Bureau for Global Health Security and Diplomacy – hosted a day-long discussion program to help plan priorities and review lines of efforts for the recently created Foreign Ministry Channel for Global Health Security.

The Department’s press statement explains that “The Channel builds on the 2022-2023 COVID-19 Pandemic Prioritized Global Action Plan for Enhanced Engagement (GAP). The meeting is the first in a series of regular engagements between senior officials within Ministries of Foreign Affairs to focus diplomatic attention and action on critical global health security priorities. The foreign ministries, and participants from other ministries, will build on progress in this first meeting to elevate global health security issues as a national security imperative, enhance pandemic preparedness, and advance concrete global health security deliverables. Participants will collaborate on global efforts to:

Strengthen pandemic prevention and early-warning capacities
Address misinformation and disinformation on health issues, and leverage emerging technologies to strengthen global health security
Mitigate the human health impacts of climate change utilizing the One Health approach, which recognizes the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health
Enable sustainable medical countermeasures for health emergencies
Enhance diplomatic workforce capacity on health security.”

“‘Lab Leak’ Proponents at Rutgers Accused of Defaming and Intimidating COVID-19 Origin Researchers”

Jocelyn Kaiser covers a recent formal complaint filed with Rutgers University regarding the conduct of molecular biologist Richard Ebright and microbiologist Bryce Nickels, both employed by the university. Kaiser explains in the news piece for Science, “But now, their targets have had enough. A dozen scientists filed a formal complaint with Rutgers yesterday alleging that the two faculty members have violated the university’s policies on free expression by posting “provably false” comments that are often defamatory, and that some of their actions could even threaten scientists’ safety.”

Read more here.

“How to Better Research the Possible Threats Posed by AI-Driven Misuse of Biology”

Matthew E. Walsh recently authored this piece for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, writing in part “Nonetheless, researchers have conducted experiments that aim to evaluate sub-components of biological threats—such as the ability to develop a plan for or obtain information that could enable misuse. Two recent efforts—by RAND Corporation and OpenAI—to understand how artificial intelligence could lower barriers to the development of biological weapons concluded that access to a large language model chatbot did not give users an edge in developing plans to misuse biology. But those findings are just one part of the story and should not be considered conclusive.”

“An Action Plan to Increase the Safety and Security of Advanced AI”

This action plan from Gladstone AI was completed following the release of an October 2022 State Department assessment of proliferation and security risks posed by weaponized and misaligned AI. The plan-“Defense in Depth: An Action Plan to Increase the Safety and Security of Advanced AI“-explains in part of its introduction that “This action plan is a blueprint for that intervention. Its aim is to increase the safety and security of advanced AI by countering catastrophic national security risks from AI weaponization and loss of control. It was developed over thirteen months, and informed by conversations with over two hundred stakeholders from across the U.S., U.K., and Canadian governments; major cloud providers; AI safety organizations; security and computing experts; and formal and informal contacts at the frontier AI labs themselves. The actions we propose follow a sequence that:
● Begins by establishing interim safeguards to stabilize advanced AI development,
including export controls on the advanced AI supply chain;
● Leverages the time gained to develop basic regulatory oversight and strengthen
U.S. government capacity for later stages;
● Transitions into a domestic legal regime of responsible AI development and
adoption, safeguarded by a new U.S. regulatory agency; and
● Extends that regime to the multilateral and international domains.”

“Government Commissioned Report: AI is Creating New Categories of Weapons of Mass Destruction”

This recent article in the Claims Journal covers the aforementioned report from the State Department focused on WMD threats and AI: “A U.S. State Department-commissioned report asserts that advanced artificial intelligence is creating entirely new categories of weapons of mass destruction-like (WMD-like) and WMD-enabling catastrophic…The risks associated with these developments are global, have deeply technical origins and are quickly evolving, leaving policymakers with diminishing opportunities to introduce safeguards to balance these considerations and ensure advanced AI is developed and adopted responsibly.”

Read more here.

“Why Are Large AI Models Being Red Teamed?”

Natasha Bajema covers AI red teaming in this piece for IEEE Spectrum, writing in part “In February, OpenAI announced the arrival of Sora, a stunning “text-to-video” tool. Simply enter a prompt, and Sora generates a realistic video within seconds. But it wasn’t immediately available to the public. Some of the delay is because OpenAI reportedly has a set of experts called a red team who, the company has said, will probe the model to understand its capacity for deepfake videos, misinformation, bias, and hateful content.”

“Red teaming, while having proved useful for cybersecurity applications, is a military tool that was never intended for widespread adoption by the private sector.”

‘“Done well, red teaming can identify and help address vulnerabilities in AI,” says Brian Chen, director of policy from the New York–based think tank Data & Society. “What it does not do is address the structural gap in regulating the technology in the public interest.”’

“Biodefense in the FY25 President’s Budget Request”

Lillian Parr and Dan Regan recently published this blog post with CSR’s Nolan Center in which they compare the FY25 budget request to the FY24 Continuing Resolution. They explain “On Monday, March 11, the Biden Administration released the President’s Budget Request (PBR) for Fiscal Year 2025. While the final budget appropriations bills enacted by Congress will likely differ substantially from this request, the PBR provides useful insight into the Administration’s priorities. This blog post will highlight a few notable funding lines and trends for biodefense-focused programs…The initial tranche of the PBR documents, namely the Budget of the United States Government and the budget-in-briefs from each agency, state the priority budget items and highlight significant changes in funding. This analysis is largely based on these highlights and the topline budget numbers available. Over the next several weeks the agencies will complete the release of their budget justification books, which contain the highest level of detail on budgetary resourcing. Once all of the final justification books are released, we’ll announce our updated CSR Biodefense Budget Breakdown.”

“Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise Multiyear Budget: Fiscal Years 2023-2027”

ASPR recently released the Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasure Enterprise (PHEMCE) Multiyear Budget (MYB) for fiscal years 2023-2027. “The report assesses funding needs to support medical countermeasure priorities, which would allow the U.S. Government to prepare for the next public health threat. The MYB projects an estimated overall funding need of $79.5 billion over the five-year period, an increase of $15.5 billion over the 2022-2026 report. The MYB is not a budget request and does not replace funding levels requested in the President’s Budget or accompanying documents.”

“The MYB forecasts to Congress and external stakeholders the funding required to fully prepare the country for a range of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats, without regard to the competing priorities considered in the President’s Budget. The MYB also illustrates the support needed for other key priorities — such as supporting innovative approaches to medical countermeasure (MCM) development and fostering clear, scientifically supported regulatory pathways for MCMs.”

“Ready or Not 2024: Protecting the Public’s Health from Diseases, Disasters, and Bioterrorism”

From Trust for America’s Health: “As the nation experiences an increasing number of infectious disease outbreaks and extreme weather events, TFAH’s Ready or Not 2024: Protecting the Public’s Health from Diseases, Disasters, and Bioterrorism report identifies key gaps in national and state preparedness to protect residents’ health during emergencies and makes recommendations to strengthen the nation’s public health system and improve emergency readiness.”

“Op-Ed: Proposed LDTs Rule Threatens Outbreak Containment”

Linoj Samuel and Erin Graf, Chair and Vice Chair of the American Society for Microbiology’s Clinical and Public Health Microbiology Committee respectively, recently authored this opinion piece discussing how federal regulations currently under consideration might harm the effectiveness of of laboratory-developed tests for fast-moving outbreaks. They write in part, “The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently proposed a rule that would require the same premarket approval for LDTs as it does for medical devices, such as prosthetic joints or pacemakers. The potential rule could bring significant harm to patients by limiting the clinical microbiology and public health laboratories that serve them. The medical device pathway under consideration is designed for commercially developed medical devices. It’s ill-suited to regulate LDTs, and it’s especially at odds with the realities of infectious disease testing. If adopted, the FDA’s rule will disincentivize clinical and public health labs from developing and deploying essential LDTs. It will create gaps in diagnosis and care, and it could potentially impact underserved communities the most.”

“Clinical, Biomarker, and Research Tests Among US Government Personnel and Their Family Members Involved in Anomalous Health Incidents”

Chan, Hallett, and Zalewski recently published this article in JAMA: “Questions Do US government officials and their family members involved in anomalous health incidents (AHIs) differ from control participants with respect to clinical, biomarker, and research assessments?”

“Findings In this exploratory study that included 86 participants reporting AHIs and 30 vocationally matched control participants, there were no significant differences in most tests of auditory, vestibular, cognitive, visual function, or blood biomarkers between the groups. Participants with AHIs performed significantly worse on self-reported and objective measures of balance, and had significantly increased symptoms of fatigue, posttraumatic stress disorder, and depression compared with the control participants; 24 participants (28%) with AHIs presented with functional neurological disorders.”

“Meaning In this exploratory study, there were no significant differences between individuals reporting AHIs and matched control participants with respect to most clinical, research, and biomarker measures, except for self-reported and objective measures of imbalance; symptoms of fatigue, posttraumatic stress, and depression; and the development of functional neurological disorders in some.”

“Russia Appears to Be Using Chemical Weapons in Ukraine. And Admitting It.”

Matt Field covers the debate over the validity of Ukraine’s claims that Russia is using CW in the ongoing war in Ukraine for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, writing in part “For Lennie Phillips, a former inspector for the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which implements the Chemical Weapons Convention, some of Ukraine’s claims appear credible, including a segment on Russian state-controlled TV that included an interview with a man the US embassy in The Hague reports is a Russian soldier discussing the effectiveness of chemicals as weapons. “The piece on Russia’s Channel [One] alone makes the use of tear gas by the [Russian Federation] very credible,” Phillips, now a research fellow at the UK defense think tank RUSI, said.”

“The Centre for Chemistry and Technology and the Future of the OPCW”

Ian Anthony recently published this paper with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute: “With the destruction of the final remaining stockpiles of declared chemical weapons in 2023, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) must adjust to a new role. The inauguration of the OPCW’s Centre for Chemistry and Technology (CCT) in 2023 provides a new resource to assist the organization and the international community in reducing and eliminating the threat from chemical weapons.”

“Now that the CCT is operational, it is important to build momentum behind a substantive programme of work. Projects for the programme could be grouped into four thematic categories: understanding technological developments; chemical forensics; broadening geographical representation; and tailored training programmes.”

“The CCT should be led by a director, who should work with a newly established Office of Science and Technology to develop the centre’s strategic direction. To provide the CCT with stable and secure financing, a trust fund for the CCT should be established.”

Report Release Webinar: Future State of Smallpox Medical Countermeasures

From National Academies of Science and Medicine: “Join the Committee on Current State of Research, Development, and Stockpiling of Smallpox Medical Countermeasures as it discusses its newly released report Future State of Smallpox Medical Countermeasures on Tuesday, March 26, 2024.”

Learn more and join the discussion here.

Artificial Intelligence and Automated Laboratories for Biotechnology: Leveraging Opportunities and Mitigating Risks

From the National Academies’ Board on Life Sciences: “Please join us April 3-4, 2024 for a hybrid workshop on the opportunities and mitigation of risks of the use of artificial intelligence and automated laboratories (i.e., self-driving labs) for biotechnology.”

“The workshop will consider opportunities to leverage AI and laboratory automation capabilities for discovery and development, explore methods and approaches to identify, track, and forecast the domestic and international development of such technologies, and convene experts across sectors to highlight recent advances and explore implications for the development and use of these technologies.”

Learn more and register here.

Launch of the 2024 National Blueprint on Biodefense

From the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense: “On the 10^th anniversary of its inception, the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense will release its 2024 National Blueprint on Biodefense: Immediate Action Needed to Defend Against Biological Threats.”

“Please join us for this momentous event at the Congressional Auditorium, Capitol Visitor Center, on April 17^th at 4:30pm.”

“The Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense (formerly the Blue Ribbon Study Panel on Biodefense) was established in 2014 to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state of United States biodefense efforts and to issue recommendations that foster change. Subsequently, the Commission has briefed White House Administrations (including then Vice President Biden); testified before Congress; convened numerous meetings with experts; released 12 reports; produced the graphic novel Germ Warfare; and mobilized biodefense conversations and actions in the private and public sectors.”

Learn more and register here.

Addressing the Challenges Posed by Chemical and Biological Weapons: Intensive Online Introductory Course for Students of Technical Disciplines

Learn more and apply here.

Registration for GHS 2024 Now Open

SBA.3 International Synthetic Biology, and Biosecurity Conference in Africa

Learn more and register here.

Eighth Annual Next Generation for Biosecurity Competition Open for Applications

“The Eighth Annual Next Generation for Biosecurity Competition is now open. NTI | bio hosts this competition to provide a platform for the next generation of global leaders in biosecurity to develop original concepts and share them with the wider biosecurity community. This year’s co-sponsors include 80,000 Hours, the Global Health Security Network, the iGEM Foundation, the International Federation of Biosafety Associations, the Next Generation Global Health Security Network, Pandemic Action Network, SynBio Africa, and Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security, and Conflict Transformation.“

“This year, the competition invites innovative and creative papers focused on how investments in biosecurity can both contribute to a more equitable society and reduce biological risks. The full prompt is provided below.”

“Winners of the Biosecurity Competition will be awarded the following:

Online publication of their paper on the NTI website
The opportunity to attend a high-profile international biosecurity event, such as the Biological Weapons Convention, and present their paper at a prestigious side event.”

Learn more here.

Nonproliferation Review and CNS Announce McElvany Award Winners

“The Nonproliferation Review and the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) are pleased to announce that an article examining the George W. Bush administration’s policies toward the nuclear programs of Iran and South Korea, “A tale of two fuel cycles: defining enrichment and reprocessing in the nonproliferation regime” by Sidra Hamidi and Chantell Murphy, has won the Doreen and Jim McElvany Nonproliferation Award’s grand prize.”

“In examining the Bush administration’s policies toward two states with advanced nuclear fuel cycles, Hamidi and Murphy’s article also explores the various US and international definitions of uranium enrichment and spent-fuel reprocessing. Its analysis draws on the concept of “technopolitics,” the study of the mutually reinforcing processes by which political priorities shape technological systems while technology also limits and creates new kinds of politics.”

Read more here.

Pandora Report 1.26.2024

January 26, 2024January 26, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week covers the updated Doomsday Clock time, new HHS cybersecurity performance goals for the health sector, a podcast episode with our own Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley covering her work on barriers to biological weapons, new publications, and more!

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board Leaves Doomsday Clock at 90 Seconds to Midnight

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board recently announced that it left the Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight this year, based on threats like nuclear risk, climate change, biological threats, and disruptive technologies. In its statement, the board said in part “Ominous trends continue to point the world toward global catastrophe. The war in Ukraine and the widespread and growing reliance on nuclear weapons increase the risk of nuclear escalation. China, Russia, and the United States are all spending huge sums to expand or modernize their nuclear arsenals, adding to the ever-present danger of nuclear war through mistake or miscalculation.”

“In 2023, Earth experienced its hottest year on record, and massive floods, wildfires, and other climate-related disasters affected millions of people around the world. Meanwhile, rapid and worrisome developments in the life sciences and other disruptive technologies accelerated, while governments made only feeble efforts to control them.”

In its in-depth explanation of biological risks that factored into this decision, the board explains that “The revolution in the life sciences and associated technologies continues to accelerate and expand in scope, enabling an increasing number of individuals, in groups and alone, to pose threats arising from both accidental and deliberate misuse. During the past six months, the potential for artificial intelligence tools to empower individuals to misuse biology has become far more apparent.”

The same sidebar also explains that “Two other types of biological risks remain causes for concern: accidental release of organisms from laboratories and naturally occurring infectious diseases, especially those with pandemic potential. Deforestation, urbanization, and climate change continue to destabilize microbe-host relationships and facilitate the emergence of infectious diseases. Meanwhile, high-biosafety-level laboratories have proliferated around the world, as has risky research motivated by interests in controlling these diseases. Despite the importance of understanding and countering naturally occurring biological threats, it isn’t clear that all of these high-biosafety-level laboratories or high-risk experiments are needed for achieving these goals. As the number of laboratories and amount of risky research increases, and the failure to standardize safe laboratory practices and to institute adequate research oversight persists, the risk of accidental release of dangerous pathogens worsens.”

HHS Announces New Voluntary Performance Goals, Resources for Health Sector Cybersecurity

This week, the Department of Health and Human Services announced via the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) that it is releasing “voluntary health care specific cybersecurity performance goals (CPGs) and a new gateway website to help Health Care and Public Health (HPH) sector organizations implement these high-impact cybersecurity practices and ease access to the plethora of cybersecurity resources HHS and other federal partners offer.”

The statement further explained “As outlined in the recent HHS Health Care Sector Cybersecurity concept paper, HHS is publishing the CPGs to help health care organizations, and health care delivery organizations in particular, prioritize implementation of high-impact cybersecurity practices. The HPH CPGs are designed to better protect the healthcare sector from cyberattacks, improve response when events occur, and minimize residual risk. HPH CPGs include both essential goals to outline minimum foundational practices for cybersecurity performance and enhanced goals to encourage adoption of more advanced practices.”

Read more here.

“Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley on Barriers to Bioweapons”

From Hear This Idea: “Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley is an associate professor at George Mason University and the deputy director of their biodefense program. Sonia has written extensively on the proliferation and non-proliferation of bioweapons, being one of the key voices to have emphasized the challenges that organizations, tacit knowledge, and other factors have caused for states and terrorists that have attempted to acquire weapons of mass destruction.”

“In this episode we talk about:

Misconceptions around the ease of bioweapon production — how and why bioweapons programs face unique challenges compared to nuclear weapons programs
The crucial role of tacit knowledge in bioweapons production
Will AI make bioweapons much easier to develop, or will human expertise remain a major bottleneck?
Case studies of bioweapons programs, illustrating the practical difficulties and failures encountered even by well-resourced state actors.
(How) has Biological Weapons Convention prevented bioweapon proliferation?
Do global political trends point towards proliferation, even without AI?”

“How Reliable is ISIS’s Claiming Responsibility for Deadly Attacks in Iran?”

Schar School associate professor Mahmut Cengiz recently authored this piece for Homeland Security Today, in which he writes in part “These discrepancies related to the twin blasts bring up a question of how reliable ISIS is when the group claims responsibility for terrorist attacks. Terrorist groups aim to take credit when a group spokesperson, on behalf of the organization, states that the group is the perpetrator of the attack. They tend to claim responsibility for attacks—targeting state institutions and the military rather than civilians— when they aim to gain publicity and when the backlash from the government is not likely. As opposed to terrorist attacks that claimed most responsibility in the 1980s and 1990s, every one of seven attacks has been recorded claiming responsibility since 2018. According to the Global Terrorism and Trends Analysis Center (GTTAC) Records of Incidents Database (GRID), the attacks by ISIS and its affiliated organizations steadily increased from 2018 to 2022. They conducted 873 attacks in the first ten months of 2023. Contrary to increasing attacks, its attacks of claiming responsibility slightly increased between 2018 and 2020 and dropped in 2021 and 2022. ISIS groups claimed responsibility in its 161 attacks. “

“Beyond Borders, Beyond Biases: Building a Biosecure Future with Diverse Voices”

Aparupa Sengupta, Senior Program Officer for Global Biological Policy and Programs at NTI, discusses the importance of diversity and inclusion in biosafety and biosecurity governance in this piece for NTI. She writes in part “At NTI, we believe the greatest risk of these catastrophic effects is from the accidental or intentional misuse of a bio-engineered agent. Therefore, we focus on developing stronger biosafety and biosecurity policies and practices to protect against these manmade risks. This work requires global cooperation and shared responsibility, and an understanding that diverse perspectives and experiences are essential. Without them, we will face widening knowledge gaps and international resentment, ultimately sabotaging our ability to collectively address bio threats.”

“Recently, the Center for Security and International Studies (CSIS) published a report recommending actions to strengthen global biosafety and biosecurity. As someone with more than 15 years of experience working in the interface of science, technology, and biosafety/security, I endorse all eight recommendations in the report but suggest adding a ninth one to the list: “Prioritize diversity and inclusion for effective global biosafety and biosecurity governance.”’

“Did China Keep the COVID Virus Sequence Secret for Weeks?”

Matt Field breaks down questions surrounding China’s sharing of the SARS-CoV-2 genetic sequence in the early days of COVID-19 in this piece for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: “In outbreak response, speed is critical as authorities seek to quickly determine the cause of a disease and prevent it from spreading. A new report is now raising fresh questions about China’s early response to COVID-19. The Wall Street Journal revealed Wednesday that a researcher in Beijing attempted to upload the genetic sequence SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID, to a US-based public database about two weeks before the Chinese government publicized the pathogen’s sequence, a lag that potentially robbed scientists and health officials of valuable time.”

“Investigating the Potential Strategic Implications of COVID-19 for Biological Weapons Pursuit: A New Expert Simulation”

Ackerman et al. recently published this article in Health Security: “To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the strategic decisionmaking of leaders with respect to biological weapons, this study employed a prospective simulation technique called Asynchronous Strategic Dynamics Red Teaming. Using an immersive, multimedia simulation conducted remotely and asynchronously, the effort engaged 240 carefully selected and curated expert participants in either biological weapons or the countries of interest (as well as 60 naïve participants). Across our sample of 30 countries, simulated interest in pursuing some type of biological weapons program (defensive or offensive) remained low to moderate. While such interest increased after the simulated onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was limited overall, with only a handful of states showing salient increases in offensive biological weapon interest. When directly referencing why their countries might have changed their post-COVID-19 interest in biological weapons, the most commonly cited reasons were: (1) COVID-19 demonstrated the power of biological weapons to disrupt societies and cause large-scale economic harm, and (2) the pandemic revealed either the state’s own or its rivals’ vulnerability to diseases like COVID-19, as well as an inability to efficiently respond and contain such diseases. In sum, despite a global pandemic with massive consequences, the simulation revealed that most states are not likely to dramatically change their strategic posture regarding pursuit of offensive biological weapons.”

“Catalogue of Civil Society Assistance for BWC States Parties”

From the Stimson Center: “The Catalogue of Civil Society Assistance to States Parties annually highlights the contributions of civil society to the BWC and States Parties and to the enhancement of biological safety and security. From Ottawa to Hamburg, there are civil society assistance programs across the world that are available to support the implementation of the BWC. The catalogue includes organization and project descriptions and points of contact for each program, which aims to facilitate stronger connections between civil society and State Parties in need of assistance.”

“The Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks”

New from RAND: “The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has far-reaching implications across multiple domains, including concern regarding the potential development of biological weapons. This potential application of AI raises particular concerns because it is accessible to nonstate actors and individuals. The speed at which AI technologies are evolving often surpasses the capacity of government regulatory oversight, leading to a potential gap in existing policies and regulations.”

“In this report, the authors share final results of a study of the potential risks of using large language models (LLMs) in the context of biological weapon attacks. They conducted an expert exercise in which teams of researchers role-playing as malign nonstate actors were assigned to realistic scenarios and tasked with planning a biological attack; some teams had access to an LLM along with the internet, and others were provided only access to the internet. The authors sought to identify potential risks posed by LLM misuse, generate policy insights to mitigate any risks, and contribute to responsible LLM development. The findings indicate that using the existing generation of LLMs did not measurably change the operational risk of such an attack.”

“Implementing The Bioeconomy Executive Order: Lessons Learned And Future Considerations”

Nazish Jeffrey breaks down the Federations of American Scientists’ Bioeconomy EO Tracker in this piece, writing “With the U.S. bioeconomy valued at over $950 billion and predicted to steadily increase, the potential for significant economic impact is unmistakable. To leverage this economic opportunity, the 2022 Bioeconomy Executive Order (EO) took a significant step towards addressing the complexities of the bioeconomy and creating a whole-of-government approach. The scope of the EO was vast, assigning around 40 tasks to many different federal agencies, in order to create a national framework to leverage bio-based innovations for sustainable economic growth.”

“To track the numerous tasks assigned by the EO, the Federation of American Scientists have put together a living Bioeconomy EO tracker to monitor the progress of these tasks, enhance accountability and to allow stakeholders to stay informed on the state of the U.S. bioeconomy as it evolves. This FAS tracker was inspired by the initial tracker created by Stanford University when the EO was first published.”

“Public Health Preparedness: HHS Emergency Agency Needs to Strengthen Workforce Planning”

In this new Government Accountability Office report, GAO recommends that “ASPR (1) establish specific goals and performance measures to use for its new hiring office once it is fully operational, (2) develop tailored strategies for recruiting and hiring human capital staff for the new office, (3) identify the critical areas that need workforce assessments and develop plans to implement them, and (4) conduct an agency-wide workforce assessment. HHS neither agreed nor disagreed with the first two recommendations and agreed with the last two recommendations. GAO believes actions are needed to address all of the recommendations.”

Read more here.

“Dissecting Pandemic-Prone Viral Families Volume 2: The Paramyxoviridae”

Amesh A. Adalja covers the Paramyxoviridae family in this volume of Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security’s Dissecting Pandemic-Prone Viral Families,” writing in part “Paramyxoviridae is a large viral family that contains many once common and wellknown human pathogens, such as measles and mumps, as well as other pathogens that pose concerns for their potential to cause epidemic or pandemic disease.1″

“This family of viruses infects a wide variety of species, ranging from reptiles to rodents and fish to birds. While diseases such as measles and mumps cause little morbidity and mortality in advanced societies today—because of high levels of vaccine-induced immunity—other members of this viral family have considerable burdens of infection with attendant morbidity and mortality risks. Also, within this family, there is one genus of consequence – Henipavirus – that has already been responsible for a number of serious emerging infectious diseases. The table below summarizes key genera and viruses of this family.1”

“The Overlooked Bacterial Pandemic”

Moriel et al. recently published this work in Seminars in Immunopathology: “The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant economic and health impact worldwide. It also reinforced the misperception that only viruses can pose a threat to human existence, overlooking that bacteria (e.g., plague and cholera) have severely haunted and shaped the course of human civilization. While the world is preparing for the next viral pandemic, it is again overlooking a silent one: antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This review proposes to show the impact of bacterial infections on civilization to remind the pandemic potential. The work will also discuss a few examples of how bacteria can mutate risking global spread and devastating outcomes, the effect on the global burden, and the prophylactic and therapeutic measures. Indeed, AMR is dramatically increasing and if the trend is not reversed, it has the potential to quickly turn into the most important health problem worldwide.”

“Etymologia: Ring Vaccination”

Sharma et al. recently published this short piece covering ring vaccination’s etymology in Emerging Infectious Diseases: “Ring Vaccination [rɪŋ-væk-sɪ′-neɪ-ʃn] Ring vaccination (expanding ring, surveillance and containment) is a public health measure designed to prevent spread of disease from infected persons to others. This approach targets persons who have had close contact with confirmed or suspected cases and are at a higher risk of infection by vaccinating them first (Figure).”

Read more here.

“Russian Military Thought and Doctrine Related to Non-strategic Nuclear Weapons: Change and Continuity”

William Alberque tackles Russian nuclear doctrine in this report for the International Institute for Strategic Studies: “Russian nuclear doctrine, especially regarding its large stockpile of non-strategic nuclear weapons, has become one of the most pressing issues in Euro-Atlantic security. This report aims to build an understanding of Russia’s strategic nuclear weapons doctrine through empirical research, including by examining the continuities and discontinuities in doctrine across time, through the Cold War, to the collapse of the Soviet Union, to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and in Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine.”

Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction Newsletter

The Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction’s newsletter is published quarterly and is available for subscription here. This quarter’s edition focuses on Italy’s upcoming Global Partnership presidency, the Partnership’s 2023 Programming Annex, featured articles, community updates, and more.

“UNITAD – Key Investigations as UN Mechanism Reaches Its Final Reporting Year”

Sam Biden covers the work of the UN Investigate Team to Promote Accountability Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD), providing an overview of its key investigations in the last two years in this piece for the Human Security Centre. This includes UNITAD’s work on biological and chemical weapons, under which Biden explains in part, “2023 marked a significant stride in the relentless pursuit of accountability for ISIL’s chemical and biological weapons program. The investigation during this reporting period yielded substantial evidence from earlier inquiries strategies regarding the production and delivery of the weapons themselves. These key lines of inquiry harnessed new collaborations with technical experts, including those from the Mine Action Service, provided essential insights into a wide array of attacks. UNITADs work extended to collecting and preserving evidence linked to 12 attacks yet continued to focus on gathering further evidence from the 2016 attack on Tazah Khurmatu. This ultimately led to the collection of new battlefield evidence and files, shedding light on ISIL’s operations in Kirkuk and implicating specific persons of interest. A comprehensive report focused on the 2016 attack on Tazah Khurmatu was shared with the Iraqi judiciary, encapsulating critical findings from the ongoing investigation.”

ICYMI-“Event Summary: U.S.–UK Strategic Dialogue on Biosecurity”

“On January 16, the Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) hosted senior government leaders for the launch of the U.S.–UK Strategic Dialogue on Biosecurity at the historic National Academy of Sciences Building in Washington, D.C.”

“Building upon decades of partnership between the two countries, the Strategic Dialogue is a core component of the Atlantic Declaration—the new bilateral economic partnership established in 2023 to adapt, reinforce, and reimagine the U.S.-UK alliance for the challenges of the twenty-first century. Following the event, the U.S. National Security Council and the UK Cabinet Office released a joint statement outlining the Strategic Dialogue’s intent, including coordination to uphold global norms and commitments to lead on innovation in biotechnology and biosecurity.”

Read more here.

NEW: AI Rewards, Risks, and the Future of Biosecurity by Design (Pandemic Center Webinar)

From the Brown School of Public Health: “On January 24th at 1:00 PM EST the Pandemic Center will host a webinar titled AI Rewards, Risks, and the Future of Biosecurity by Design.”

“This event will bring together experts in biosecurity, global health, and pandemic prevention and response. Together, they will discuss the relationship between AI and biosecurity, with a focus on benefits, risks, and pragmatic solutions.”

“This event will be hosted and moderated by Beth Cameron, PhD, Professor of the Practice and Senior Advisor to the Pandemic Center.”

Learn more and register here.

NEW: Kazakhstan’s Actions to Address Nuclear and Biological Risks

From the Cargenie Endowment for International Peace: “Upon the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan found itself in possession of the world’s fourth-largest nuclear weapons stockpile and the former union’s most significant biological weapons factory. Kazakhstan’s subsequent decision to return and dismantle these weapons has solidified its position as a leader in nuclear and biological risk reduction. For the last thirty years, Kazakhstan’s actions have served as a core model for regional and international security.”

“Please join the Carnegie Endowment and the Council on Strategic Risks for a hybrid panel on Kazakhstan’s increasingly global role in the changing threat landscape of weapons of mass destruction. The discussion will feature Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to the United States of America Yerzhan Ashikbayev, the Honorable Andrew Weber, and Dr. Toghzan Kassenova. It will be moderated by Shannon Green, senior fellow at the Council on Strategic Risks.”

This event will take place on January 30 at 1:30 pm EST. Learn more and RSVP here.

NEW: WEBINAR: State Department 2023 Global Terrorism Data: Trends & Warnings

From Homeland Security Today: “Join HSToday for a Law Enforcement-only analysis of global terrorism trends from 2023 and threat forecasts for 2024. The Department of State’s yearly Annex of Statistical Information Reports uses The Global Terrorism Trends and Analysis Center (GTTAC) database.”

“Dr. Mahmut Cengiz, a senior data analyst at GTTAC since 2018, will discuss terrorism trends from 2023 and areas of concern for law enforcement in the United States (US). More specifically, his analyses will focus on HAMAS and Iran-backed terror groups targeting American facilities in the Middle East, Al Qaeda- and ISIS-affiliated organizations actively involved in terrorist attacks worldwide, increasing far-right terrorism and emerging lone actor threats in the US and Europe. The Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC) is the first center in the United States devoted to understanding the links among terrorism, transnational crime and corruption, and to teach, research, train and help formulate policy on these critical issues. TraCCC is a research center within the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. TraCCC also houses the innovative and highly-respected Anti-Illicit Trade Institute (AITI).”

This event will take place on February 8 at 2 pm EST. Learn more and register here.

AI Executive Order Report Card Reviewing the First 90 Days

“On October 30, 2023, the Biden Administration issued a call to action outlining a host of requirements and deliverables for U.S. government agencies on artificial intelligence. The executive order touched on a range of AI-relevant issues, including testing and evaluation of new AI systems, developing a healthy and capable U.S. AI workforce, and ensuring U.S. competitiveness in the years to come.”

“Join CSET researchers on January 31, 2024, for a discussion of what the U.S. Government has accomplished so far, what have we learned, and what’s left to do to complete the EO’s ambitious goals.”

This online event will begin at 12 pm EST. Learn more and register here.

GP Nonproliferation and Strategic Trade Hub Virtual Launch & Demo

“The Strategic Trade Research Institute (STRI) invites you to participate in the Global Partnership Nonproliferation and Strategic Trade Hub Virtual Launch and Demo event taking place on February 27, 2024, from 9:00-10:00 am EST.”

“Please join us to learn about the main features of the Hub, how to use it, and how it can be useful and impactful for nonproliferation and export control professionals. The event will feature Andrea Viski, Director of STRI, as well as introductory remarks from the Hub’s sponsor, the United Kingdom’s Counter-proliferation and Arms Control Center (CPACC).”

Learn more and register here.

International Conference, CBRNE Research & Innovation

“The last 40 years have demonstrated that both military and civilian populations could be exposed to highly hazardous CBRNE agents following conflicts, natural outbreaks and disasters, industrial incidents or terrorist attacks.”

“Worldwide, researchers, responders and industrial capacities have been commited to provide adapted response to these challenges.”

“Building on the success of the first 5 International Conferences « CBRNE Research and Innovation » which took place in Antibes (2015), Lyon (2017), Nantes (2019), on line (2021) and Lille (2022), we want to give you a new opportunity to build up or strengthen collaborative networks in Strabourg (March 19^th – 21^rst 2024).”

“The CBRNE R&I Conference is specifically devoted to scientific updates, responders’ feedbacks and expression of needs. It also includes workshops and demonstrations of innovative materials, technologies and procedures, according to the following themes: DETECTION – IDENTIFICATION, PROTECTION – DECONTAMINATION, MEDICAL COUNTERMEASURES, RISKS & CRISIS MANAGEMENT.”

“Looking forward to your proposals for communication and to welcoming you at Strasbourg in March 2024!”

Learn more here.

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Registration for GHS 2024 Now Open

Pandora Report 1.19.2024

January 19, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report covers the United States’ designation of the Houthis as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group, a new strategic dialogue between the United States and the United Kingdom to combat biological threats, and more.

Houthis Added to US List of Specially Designated Global Terrorist Groups

The US Department of State announced this week that Ansarallah, commonly known as the Houthis, has been designated as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group. This will enter into effect on February 16. In the press statement on the designation, the Department said “Since November, the Houthis have launched unprecedented attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, as well as military forces positioned in the area to defend the safety and security of commercial shipping. These attacks against international shipping have endangered mariners, disrupted the free flow of commerce, and interfered with navigational rights and freedoms. This designation seeks to promote accountability for the group’s terrorist activities. If the Houthis cease their attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, the United States will reevaluate this designation.”

“The Houthis must be held accountable for their actions, but it should not be at the expense of Yemeni civilians. As the Department of State moves forward with this designation, we are taking significant steps to mitigate any adverse impacts this designation may have on the people of Yemen. During the 30-day implementation delay, the U.S. government will conduct robust outreach to stakeholders, aid providers, and partners who are crucial to facilitating humanitarian assistance and the commercial import of critical commodities in Yemen. The Department of the Treasury is also publishing licenses authorizing certain transactions related to the provision of food, medicine, and fuel, as well as personal remittances, telecommunications and mail, and port and airport operations on which the Yemeni people rely.”

Mahmut Cengiz, an Assistant Professor at George Mason University, published an in-depth overview of the group and their previous designation on the list for Homeland Security Today just before the State Department’s announcement. In addition to outlining the organization’s connection to Iran and other Iranian-backed terrorist organizations, Cengiz covers previous attacks by the Houthis and the complicated situation in Yemen, writing “The civil war in Yemen has morphed into proxy wars for states and their surrogate organizations to pursue their interests. Much like the ongoing civil war in Syria that involves many parties, the Yemeni conflict involves several states (Iran and Saudi Arabia) and non-state actors – including surrogate organizations for the states, terrorist organizations, and rebel groups. Several of them are Houthis, Al Qaeda In the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), ISIS’s affiliate in Yemen, the Southern Transitional Council backed by UAE, and the southern separatist groups. This diverse mix of participants makes it difficult to determine which states and groups are involved and what they hope to achieve by inserting themselves into the Yemeni civil war.”

Cengiz concludes his piece with a warning about the organization and the threat it poses to Yemeni civilians and broader security concerns, writing “To conclude, given the capacity of the Houthis to commit violent acts and the involvement of regional powers in the conflict in Yemen, it would not be wrong to conclude that the Yemeni conflict and the death of innocent Yemeni civilians will continue. Houthis will be a strong pawn in the game played by Tehran and serve the interests of its regime in the region. The United States removed Houthis from the list of FTOs due to humanitarian concerns in 2021, but its growing threat in the region has pushed Houthis to knock on the door of the terrorist list.”

United States and United Kingdom Announce Strategic Partnership to Tackle Biological Threats

The governments of the United States and the United Kingdom announced the creation of a new strategic dialogue on biological security this week. The White House said in a press release, “Building on the June 10, 2021 New Atlantic Charter and the June 8, 2023 Atlantic Declaration on Economic Security, the U.S. National Security Council and the UK Cabinet Office announced a new Strategic Dialogue on Biological Security during a launch event today.”

“Underpinned by the UK Biological Security Strategy and the U.S. National Biodefense Strategy, this Strategic Dialogue reflects a shared ambition to bolster future heath and economic resilience against a growing and diverse spectrum of biological threats.”

“The Strategic Dialogue reaffirms both nations’ commitment to increase collaboration in the following ways:

Develop a shared understanding of research and development (R&D) needs at the onset of new disease outbreaks, allowing for improved responsiveness by shaping global R&D efforts and supporting early technology assessments.
Adopt a One Health approach to biosurveillance and biological threat detection, in support of international efforts to develop stronger and more interconnected global surveillance capabilities.
Pursue the development of new tools and methodologies for microbial forensics and attribution.
Promote responsible innovation in the biotechnology, health, and life sciences sectors, shaping global norms and standards on biosafety and biosecurity while simultaneously protecting burgeoning bio-economies.
Facilitate the development of next-generation vaccines and therapeutics, in line with the 100-Days Mission vision supported by G7 leaders in Carbis Bay in 2021 and reaffirmed at the 2023 G7 Summit in Hiroshima.
Strengthen coordination of efforts to counter biological threats, including developing joint measures to address Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention compliance.”

The Cabinet Office added in its own press release, “Announced as part of a joint statement by the UK Cabinet Office and White House National Security Council, the Strategic Dialogue builds on the UK’s position as a global thought-leader on biological security and strengthens our commitment to work with like-minded partners to build international consensus and collaboration towards strengthened global resilience and threat deterrence.”

“In further efforts to strengthen the UK’s biosecurity capabilities, the Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden also announced a £2 million uplift for the Guy’s and St Thomas’ Respiratory Metagenomics Project, which uses genetic sequencing to detect pathogens and improve patient outcomes while providing crucial data sources to support surveillance of new and emerging diseases.”

Scientists Are Exploring How Chrysalis-Based “Living Bioreactors” May Accelerate Production of New Vaccines

A recent news update from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations explains that “Scientists in Spain are to investigate whether moth chrysalises infected with an insect virus known as a baculovirus could act as ‘living bioreactors’ in a new rapid vaccine production technique to help protect people faster from pandemic threats.”

The piece continues, explaining “In a project funded with a CEPI award of up to $3.14 million, researchers at Algenex, a Spanish biotech company, will further develop their chrysalis-based baculovirus vaccine platform technology, known as CrisBio®. The aim of the project is to conduct a pre-clinical proof of concept study for a vaccine against influenza, and to demonstrate CrisBio’s potential application for rapid and large-scale human vaccine production.”

“By enabling swift scalability and early large-scale production of viral antigens needed for vaccines, Algenex’s CrisBio® technology could bypass the need for smaller, iterative bioreaction processes and regulations, potentially expediting vaccine production timelines. The CEPI-Algenex partnership supports the 100 Days Mission – a goal embraced by leaders of the G7 and G20 to reduce new vaccine development timelines to 100 Days in response to a potential pandemic disease threat.”

Learn more here.

“What to Know About JN.1, the Latest Omicron Variant”

Aliza Rosen and Melissa Hartman cover all things JN.1 with Andy Pekosz in this piece from Johns Hopkins SPH: “In early November 2023, the JN.1 variant caused less than 5% of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. Now it is estimated to cause more than 60% of them. Virologists including Andy Pekosz, PhD, a professor in Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, are paying attention.”

“Here, Pekosz explains what virologists are seeing, what this new variant means for case rates and treatments, and why it’s so important for more people to get the updated COVID-19 vaccine rolled out this fall.”

Read more here.

“How Much Less to Worry About Long COVID Now”

Katherine J. Wu tackles the still present threat of Long COVID in this piece for The Atlantic, writing in part, “Compared with the worst days of the pandemic—when vaccines and antivirals were nonexistent or scarce, when more than 10,000 people around the world were dying each day, when long COVID largely went unacknowledged even as countless people fell chronically ill—the prognosis for the average infection with this coronavirus has clearly improved.”

“In the past four years, the likelihood of severe COVID has massively dropped. Even now, as the United States barrels through what may be its second-largest wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections, rates of death remain near their all-time low. And although tens of thousands of Americans are still being hospitalized with COVID each week, emergency rooms and intensive-care units are no longer routinely being forced into crisis mode. Long COVID, too, appears to be a less common outcome of new infections than it once was.”

“Global Risks Report 2024”

From the World Economic Forum: “The Global Risks Report explores some of the most severe risks we may face over the next decade, against a backdrop of rapid technological change, economic uncertainty, a warming planet and conflict. As cooperation comes under pressure, weakened economies and societies may only require the smallest shock to edge past the tipping point of resilience.”

ICYMI: “The Panzootic Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Sublineage 2.3.4.4b: A Critical Appraisal of One Health Preparedness and Prevention”

From WHO: “With the world gradually recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to think forward when it comes to prevention of infectious disease outbreaks originating from the animal world.”

“There has been a huge body of work on the early detection and response to emerging disease outbreaks following spillover of animal viruses to humans, but far less focus on primary prevention. Primary prevention starts before the first cases of human illness occur, but its implementation is challenging. It requires a focus on understanding underlying principles of disease emergence, and the prevention of spillovers through a One Health approach across human, animal and environmental health sectors. Therefore, in addition to the public health concerns that are currently already widely addressed, One Health requires a focus also on biodiversity conservation and environmental impacts, wildlife health, and livestock production and consumption, and both wild and domestic animal health and welfare concerns. The recent unprecedented shift in the ecology of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) illustrates this need.”

Read here.

“New NIH Chief Opens Up About Risky Pathogens, Postdoc Salaries and the Year Ahead”

Nature interviewed Monica Bertagnolli in this recent piece for Nature News focused on how the new NIH head plans to make progress in such a challenging political environment. The introduction explains: “Monica Bertagnolli took charge of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) — the world’s largest public funder of biomedical research — in November, giving the agency a permanent director for the first time in nearly two years. Her predecessor, Francis Collins, was known for his agency-wide initiatives on genomics and precision medicine, but Bertagnolli says she would like to make her mark by advancing health-care delivery and transforming how researchers use and share data, among other things.”

“However, the US presidential election this year could usher in a new government, meaning that Bertagnolli might have only a limited time to accomplish her goals. And researchers say she faces other challenges: trust in science took a hit during the COVID-19 pandemic, congressional investigations continue into the NIH’s response to the massive outbreak and the agency’s US$47-billion budget is likely to remain stagnant in 2024.”

Read more here.

“A Potential CFATS-trophe”

Joseph Gedeon demonstrates pun mastery in this edition of Politico’s cybersecurity newsletter covering Congress’ failure to re-authorize the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards. Gedeon writes in part, “It’s been about six months since the nation’s chemical security shield vanished, and now industry and agency officials are banding together today to push Congress to restore the regulation as part of this year’s must-pass spending bills.”

“And in the shadow of a war threatening expansion in the Middle East, anxieties are mounting about the vulnerability of the nation’s potentially weaponizable materials sitting overexposed — all which could be within reach for some of America’s foreign adversaries.”

Gedeon by explaining some challenges CFATS faced, writing “While the program is important, it needs some updates “to justify its monumental historical price tag,” Brian Harrell, CISA’s former assistant director for infrastructure security under the Trump administration, told POLITICO’s Matt Berg. CFATS was last approved with a $74 million budget.”

“Harrell adds that the threat of terrorism is overhyped since there haven’t been any major disasters at such facilities or other high-risk places that don’t use the program.”

‘“The idea that the lack of a terrorist screening database is putting the country at risk is a stretch given that other critical sectors screen without this tool just fine.”’

Read more here.

“Alarm Sounded Over Declining US Radiation Professional Workforce”

David Kramer recently published this article in Physics Today covering the decline of interest in different radiation specialties, including health physics, radiation biology, medical physics and radiology, nuclear engineering, and radiochemistry. Kramer explains in his introduction, “The exact size of the professional radiation workforce is hard to determine, in part because of its fragmentation among different fields and its sometimes ambiguous definitions and qualifications. The JACMP review, which took the authors seven years to complete on a pro bono basis, includes estimates that vary in fidelity depending on the field; some of the radiation specialties do not keep figures at all.”

Read more here.

The Bull Dog DetectiveL William J. Flynn and America’s First War Against the Mafia, Spies, and Terrorists

Jeffrey D. Simon recently published this book covering the life of William J. Flynn, the former Director of the Bureau of Investigation (the predecessor to the FBI): “America in the early twentieth century was rife with threats. Organized crime groups like the Mafia, German spies embedded behind enemy lines ahead of World War I, package bombs sent throughout the country, and the 1920 Wall Street bombing dominated headlines. Yet the story of the one man tasked with combating these threats has yet to be told. The Bulldog Detective: William J. Flynn and America’s First War Against the Mafia, Spies, and Terrorists is the first book to tell the story of Flynn, the first government official to bring down the powerful Mafia, uncover a sophisticated German spy ring in the United States, and launch a formal war on terrorism on his way to becoming one of the most respected and effective law enforcement officials in American history.”

“Long before Eliot Ness and the Untouchables went after Al Capone and the Italian mob in Chicago, Flynn dismantled the first Mafia family to exist in America. Next stop for the indefatigable crime fighter would be Chief of the Secret Service where he would set his crosshairs on the country’s most notorious currency counterfeiters. Coined “the Bulldog” for his tenacity, Flynn’s fame soared as he exposed Kaiser Germany’s sophisticated spy and sabotage ring on the cusp of America’s entry into World War I. As the Director of the Bureau of Investigation (the forerunner of the FBI), the Bulldog would devise the first counterterrorist strategy in U.S. history. In this riveting biography, author Jeffrey D. Simon brings to life the forgotten saga of one of America’s greatest crime and terrorist fighters. Exquisitely researched, The Bulldog Detective finally uncovers the important legacy of this fascinating man who will now no longer be lost in history.”

What We’re Watching 🍿

New Video Series on Promoting Chemical Security

New from the Stockholm Peace Research Institute: “SIPRI is pleased to launch a new video series that explores ways of strengthening the global regime to promote chemical security. The series features interviews with chemical weapons experts.”

“The interviews were conducted during an expert workshop at SIPRI in Stockholm in November 2023, which was part of a project on strengthening the norm against chemical weapon use and promoting the effective implementation of the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). The event was convened to facilitate dialogue among stakeholders in the CWC regime, officials and experts from relevant fields of expertise.”

“The workshop, undertaken with support from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, discussed the status of the CWC regime, including challenges and opportunities in the contemporary security environment. The workshop considered how stakeholders can strengthen the normative and legal dimensions of the regime and enhance national implementation including by bolstering the work of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). The workshop also considered the difficulties presented by fast-moving scientific and technological developments in chemistry and explored the role of the newly opened OPCW Centre for Chemistry and Technology in this context.”

“The findings of the project will be presented in a paper being published by SIPRI early this year.”

Learn more and watch here.

NEW: 2024 Respiratory Trends: Navigating the Threat of RSV, Influenza, and COVID-19

From Bluedot: “As we enter the new year, concerns are echoing from health officials about the growing triple threat: the combined surge of COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sounded the alarm with a notable uptick in emergency room visits attributed to COVID-19 and influenza. At the same time, RSV infections remain a significant threat, especially to vulnerable groups such as infants and the elderly.”

“As hospital visits rise, how concerned should we be?”

“Understanding the latest respiratory disease trends is critical to safeguarding public health.”

“Join Andrea Thomas, PhD, DVM, Head of Epidemiology, Anindita Marwah, MPH, Sr. Epidemiologist, and Josephine De Leon, MMASc, Enablement Specialist in Epidemiology, as they navigate the respiratory season and provide insights on:

Current respiratory patterns and predictions for the upcoming season
The trends that pose the greatest risk and deserve your focus
The role COVID-19 is playing and variants of concern
Key risk factors and strategies for an optimized approach”

This event will take place on Wednesday, January 24, at 11 am ET. Register here.

NEW: International Pandemic Preparedness Secretariat to Host Launch Event for Third Annual Implementation Report

From IPPS: “On Wednesday the 24th of January 2024, the IPPS will host a launch event to explore the findings of the third 100 Days Mission annual implementation report. This report is a ‘pulse check’ for how close the world is to achieving the 100 Days Mission, which outlines the progress made in 2023, the barriers to action, and opportunities to overcome them, including leveraging investments that are complementary to tackling other global health issues.”

“This event will:

1. Publicly launch the third implementation report for the 100 Days Mission, sharing its key findings and areas for action in 2024;

2. Explore and explain how the 100 Days Mission can be implemented at the global, regional and national level;

3. Convene partners from all sectors for practical discussions on implementing proposed 2024 priorities”

Learn more and register here.

NEW: Beyond the SCIF: Biosecurity and the Weaponization of Artificial Intelligence

From the Ronald Reagan Institute: “The rapid, global spread of the COVID-19 virus exposed the fragility of pandemic warning systems and response mechanisms in America and around the world. Our lack of preparedness for the next biosecurity threat leaves us vulnerable to adversaries pursuing biological weapons programs, especially with access to advanced capabilities like artificial intelligence and machine learning.”

“While AI promises to accelerate breakthroughs in science and public health, it also threatens to democratize technology that can make it easier to create and use deadly bioweapons. To prove a point, scientists have tasked large language models and other AI software to pull from massive amounts of open-source data and invent lethal novel pathogen strains in a matter of hours. As this technology and other powerful tools like gene editing proliferate, our biodefense is increasingly at risk—both at the hands of strategic competitors like China in its race for AI and biotech dominance and from non-state actors that can now harness technology to design bioweapons without sophisticated bioengineering expertise.”

“The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the Ronald Reagan Institute’s National Security Innovation Base Program will gather a panel of experts for “Beyond the SCIF: Biosecurity and the Weaponization of Artificial Intelligence” to discuss the threats to our biosecurity posed by technologies like AI, the state of our biodefense, and what concrete actions policymakers can take in light of these new vulnerabilities.”

“The panel will be moderated by Congressman Brad Wenstrup, OH-02, who serves on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and Chairs the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, and will feature panelists Mr. Hirsh Jain, Head of Public Health at Palantir Technologies; Dr. Michelle Rozo, Vice Chair of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology; Senator Jim Talent, Former Vice Chair of the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism and Advisory Board Member of the RRI National Security Innovation Base Program; and the Hon. Ken Wainstein, Under Secretary for Intelligence and Analysis at the Department of Homeland Security.”

This event will take place on Thursday, January 25, at 11 am ET. Learn more and register here.

NEW: GP Nonproliferation and Strategic Trade Hub Virtual Launch & Demo

Learn more and register here.

“When Medicine Stops Saving Us: The Antimicrobial Resistance Crisis”

“Interim Dean Abel Valenzuela and the UCLA Division of Social Sciences present an exclusive screening of a new documentary from the team behind the award winning NETFLIX documentary, RESISTANCE. This genre-bending short film, HOLOBIOME, features the harrowing story of UCLA graduate Bradley Burnam’s personal encounter with a deadly superbug. Through a variety of creative elements, HOLOBIOME examines the need for innovation in AMR and questions the overall human relationship with infectious disease and the microbial world. The screening will be followed by an interdisciplinary panel discussing the looming AMR crisis through the lenses of sociology, public policy, industry, and public health.”

This event will be moderated by Biodefense PhD Program alumna Jomana Musmar. It will take place on January 22, at 5 pm PST. Learn more and register here.

AI Executive Order Report Card Reviewing the First 90 Days

This online event will begin at 12 pm EST. Learn more and register here.

International Conference, CBRNE Research & Innovation

“Worldwide, researchers, responders and industrial capacities have been commited to provide adapted response to these challenges.”

“Looking forward to your proposals for communication and to welcoming you at Strasbourg in March 2024!”

Learn more here.

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Registration for GHS 2024 Now Open

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