Month: November 2014

GMU Biodefense Faculty at the CFR

by juliadhomstad, posted in Program News
Since the end of the Cold War, a new nuclear order has emerged, shaped by rising nuclear states and military technologies that threaten stability, writes George Mason University’s Gregory Koblentz in a new Council on Foreign Relations report: Strategic Stability in the Second Nuclear Age.

 

During the Cold War, the potential for nuclear weapons to be used was determined largely by the United States and the Soviet Union. Now, with 16,300 weapons possessed by the seven established nuclear-armed states—China, France, India, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—deterrence is increasingly complex. Since most of these countries face threats from a number of potential adversaries, “changes in one state’s nuclear policy can have a cascading effect on the other states.”

 

Though many states are downsizing their stockpiles, Asia is witnessing a buildup; Pakistan has the fastest-growing nuclear program in the world. By 2020, Pakistan could have a stockpile of fissile material that, if weaponized, could produce as many as two hundred nuclear devices. The author identifies South Asia as the region “most at risk of a breakdown in strategic stability due to an explosive mixture of unresolved territorial disputes, cross-border terrorism, and growing nuclear arsenals.”

 

Emerging technologies such as missile defenses, cyber and anti-satellite weapons, and conventional-precision strike weapons pose additional risks, Koblentz warns, and could potentially spur arms races and trigger crises.

 

“The United States has more to lose from a breakdown in strategic stability than any other country due to its position as a global leader, the interdependence of its economy, and the network of security commitments it has around the world,” he asserts. The United States and Russia still possess more than 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons. Despite the increasing chill in U.S.-Russia relations, Washington’s highest priority should be to maintain strategic efforts with Russia and China, the two states with the capability and potential intent to launch a nuclear attack on the American homeland.

 

The United States should work with other nuclear states to address sources of instability in the near term and establish processes for multilateral arms control efforts over the longer term, writes Koblentz. He urges the Obama administration to:
  • enhance initiatives that foster transparency, confidence-building, and restraint to mitigate the risk that emerging technologies will trigger arms races, threaten the survivability of nuclear forces, or undermine early warning and nuclear command and control systems;
  • deepen bilateral and multilateral dialogues with the other nuclear-armed states; and
  • create a forum for the seven established nuclear-armed states to discuss further steps to reduce the risk of deliberate, accidental, or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons.

Just in Time for Thanksgiving: Fowl Cholera

by juliadhomstad, posted in News

By Jonathon Marioneaux

Let’s finish the series on birds this week with one of the most ubiquitous diseases that affect our distinguished guests on Thanksgiving: fowl cholera.  First, we will look at what cholera is including a general overview of its structure and transmission.  We will then explore the clinical symptoms and if there are any treatments to protect birds.  We will then conclude with a farewell to our series on turkeys and introduce our next topic: plant diseases.

Pasteurella multocia was first characterized in the 1880’s by Louis Pasture as the causative agent of fowl cholera.  It was soon recognized that P. multocia had three distinct subspecies multocida, spetica, and gallicida with gallicida being the most common.  All birds are susceptible to cholera to varying degrees with waterfowl and turkeys being more susceptible than chickens or other land birds.  P. multocia is a gram negative coccobacillus that stains with Wright stain on its variable carbohydrate surface.  It resists phagocytosis by macrophages and neutrophils with a lipopolysaccraccharide capsule covering a highly hydrated polysaccharides cell wall (Chung et al. 2001). No single virulence toxin has been shown to cause virulence, however several proteins are suspected: capsule endotoxin, outer membrane proteins, iron binding systems, heat shock proteins, neuraminidase, antibody cleaving enzymes, and P. multocida exotoxin (Chung et al. 2001).  The bacterium is highly motile in water and can transfer hosts without direct contact when in close proximity.

The disease is spread primarily by feces or nasal fluids, however it can also be spread by contaminated water, food, bedding, humans (shoes and clothes), and other animals, primarily pigs.  P. multocia causes explosive greenish diarrhea and nasal and oral discharges that can directly infect new hosts (Overview, 2014).  Infected birds can also pass the bacterium by touching feed with open lesions, distended wattles and combs, and contaminated feathers.  Introducing new or wild birds that have not been properly quarantined can introduce the infection to otherwise healthy flocks.  Reservoirs such as pigs and dogs are known to harbor the pathogen as asymptomatic carriers and can spread it to flocks if allowed to mingle with the birds.  Transmission is also a problem with humans when moving between flocks because contaminated feces can stick to boots or other clothing and then be picked up by birds through open cuts or mucus membranes.  Finally, transmission is very common with asymptomatic carriers in large flocks such as factory farms and is less of a problem in free range birds because the bacterium is susceptible to heat and drying out (PM-Onveax,).

Cholera is known for its high morbidity and sudden mortality in large numbers of birds.  Symptoms of infection anorexia, ruffled feathers, oral and nasal discharge, and depression, so careful observation of animals should be carried out routinely.  Other signs might include fibrous contents in distended waddles and excessive red blood cells in livers in post mortem autopsies.  Treatments with penicillin and proactive bacteria can be effective against P. multocia, however caution should be used because antibiotic resistance has been shown to occur rapidly (Fowl cholera, 2014).  A new cholera vaccine is being developed using a highly pathogenic attenuated isolate while an established vaccine uses a mild variant administered under the wing (Hertman et al. 1979).

In conclusion, turkeys are susceptible to bacterial infections primarily by fecal-oral transfer and open lesions.  The most common treatment is oral penicillin or live attenuated vaccination injected under the wing.  With Thanksgiving tomorrow, remember to take extra care of our feathered friends—they can get sick just like us, but with the proper treatment we can take care of them.

This concludes our session on diseases that affect birds; birds are all around us and their diseases deserve to be studied more in-depth because they can teach us a lot about diseases that affect mammals.

Our next series will cover fungal plant diseases in preparation for the winter festivities.

 

Image Credit: Plainville Farms

Chung, J. (2001, January 1). Role of Capsule in the Pathogenesis of Fowl Cholera Caused by Pasteurella multocida Serogroup A. Retrieved November 22, 2014.

FOWL CHOLERA – Diseases of Poultry. (n.d.). Retrieved November 22, 2014, from http://www.thepoultrysite.com/publications/6/diseases-of-poultry/181/fowl-cholera

Hertman, I., Markenson, J., Michael, A., & Geier, E. (1979). Attenuated Live Fowl Cholera Vaccine I. Development of Vaccine Strain M3G of Pasteurella multocida. Avian Diseases, 24(4), 863-863. Retrieved November 22, 2014.

PM-ONEVAX-C®. (n.d.). Retrieved November 22, 2014, from http://www.merck-animal-health-usa.com/products/130_163369/productdetails_130_163757.aspx

Overview of Fowl Cholera. (n.d.). Retrieved November 22, 2014, from http://www.merckmanuals.com/vet/poultry/fowl_cholera/overview_of_fowl_cholera.html

Terrorism in 2013

by juliadhomstad, posted in News

By Erik Goepner

An estimated 61% more people perished from terrorist attacks in 2013[1] than did in 2012. As the Global Terrorism Index Report authors note, those 18,000 deaths far surpassed the 3,361 deaths from terrorist attacks in 2000. Drawing on data from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism’s Global Terrorism Database, the report and the data it contains have much to offer.

Interested in how terrorist group ideology has morphed over the past decade and a half? Check out the following graphic and observe how the religious-based groups have come to dominate terrorist activity.

Terrorism 2013(Source: Global Terrorism Index 2014, p. 31)

Who conducted the attacks? Two-thirds of the fatalities were caused by four groups: the Islamic State, Boko Haram, the Taliban, and al-Qaeda and its affiliates. As the report noted, “extreme interpretations of Wahhabi Islam” were the key commonality among the groups.

Unsurprisingly, more than 50% of the fatalities occurred in Iraq and Afghanistan. Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria accounted for another 30% of the fatalities.  In total, those five countries bore the brunt for 82% of terrorist-caused fatalities last year.

Looking at the details of the attacks, half of them resulted in no fatalities. Approximately 40% killed between one and five people, while 10% took the lives of six or more human beings. The most lethal form of attack was suicide bomber. While suicide attacks had the highest failure rate (56%), they caused an average of 11 fatalities per attack as compared to two fatalities for all other forms of terrorist attack.

Last year, suicide attacks only accounted for five percent of all terrorist attacks. Of concern, though, the Islamic State conducted 58 of the suicide attacks. By comparison, the two most prolific suicide attack groups over the past decade—al-Qaeda in Iraq and Tehrik-I-Taliban in Pakistan—have averaged 13 and 14 suicide attacks per year, respectively.

As a final note—perhaps for balance, perhaps to recognize the role of fear in terrorism—how might we understand the tragic loss of 18,000 lives to terrorism last year as compared to the 430,000[2] who were killed in homicides?

 

Image Credit: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and Terrorism Prevention

[1] The authors of the report note that the manner of data collection for the Global Terrorism Database became more automated in 2011. As a result, some events that may have been missed in prior years would now be collected, possibly inflating numbers for 2011 and following years. In response, they modeled three approaches. For example, their conservative model indicated the number of terrorist events rose by 475% since 2000, as compared to a 689% increase for the upper bounded model.

[2] See the Global Study on Homicide 2013 available at http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/publications-by-date.html

Pandora Report 11.23.14

by juliadhomstad, posted in Pandora Report

Thanksgiving is mere days away so it makes sense to look at some stories that can provide appropriate dinner discussion during those awkward lulls, right? These stories may provide that, though, I suppose that depends on who you eat your holiday dinner with (my family is very tolerant of my eccentricities.) With that said, this week we will look at plague in Madagascar, polio in Africa, antibiotic resistance in turkeys, and, of course, an Ebola update.

In observance of Thanksgiving there will not be a news wrap up next weekend. From all of us at the Pandora Report, we wish you a safe, warm, and delicious Thanksgiving!

Madagascar Plague Outbreak Kills 40, Says WHO

The World Health Organization has reported that an outbreak of plague in Madagascar has killed 40 and infected almost 80 others. The WHO warned that rapid spread of the disease could take place in the capital, Antananarivo. Humans usually develop the bubonic form of plague after being bitten by an infected flea carried by a rodent. This type, if diagnosed early, can be treated with antibiotics. However, 2% of the cases in Madagascar are pneumonic plague, which can be spread much more easily from person-to-person through coughing.

BBC—“Last year health experts warned that the island was facing a plague epidemic unless it slowed the spread of the disease. It said that inmates in Madagascar’s rat-infested jails were particularly at risk.”

Africa Nears Polio Eradication, CDC Says 

Maybe Ebola will be a topic of conversation at your Thanksgiving table. Maybe not. If you want to share some great news out of Africa, share this story. According to the Centers for Disease Control, wild polio virus has nearly been eradicated! The drop in cases in Africa has been attributed to successful vaccination campaigns in Nigeria.

Time—“No case of polio has been recorded on the continent since August, the report finds. There have been 22 cases of polio in Africa overall since the beginning of 2014, six of which were in Nigeria, one of the last three endemic nations alongside Pakistan and Afghanistan. The latest tally marked a drastic reduction from 49 cases in Nigeria the previous year.”

To Slow Down Drug Resistance in Health Care, Buy an Antibiotic-Free Turkey for Thanksgiving

We’ve seen, here at Pandora Report, that growing antibiotic resistance is a problem that spans countries and continents. Just in time for the best holiday, the Health Care without Harm nonprofit has suggested that health care workers (and, well, everyone else, too) can contribute to slowing the growth of antibiotic resistance by buying an antibiotic-free turkey for Thanksgiving. If you haven’t yet bought your turkey, maybe you’ll be motivated by what they say.

Wired—“Antibiotic resistance is a growing problem that more and more patients and providers are facing each day, and antibiotic overuse is a major contributor to this problem. While as many as 50% of antibiotic prescriptions may be overly broad or even unnecessary, animal agriculture uses four times the amount of antibiotics as human medicine, and mostly in healthy animals for growth promotion or disease prevention on crowded farms…

We are advocating for a broader concept of antimicrobial stewardship.”

This Week in Ebola

The doctor who was flown to Nebraska for treatment for Ebola died this week from a very advanced case of the disease. The need for hospitals in the U.S. and Africa that are qualified to deal with Ebola has not waned and there is an urgent need for the reinforcement of public health systems. In the meantime, New York Senator Chuck Schumer has called for New York City to be reimbursed for the costs it incurred to quarantine and treat Dr. Craig Spencer. In airport news, the Department of Homeland Security has said that they are adding additional screening for passengers arriving from Mali as there are signs of wider Ebola exposure in that country and officials in India have quarantined a man who recovered from Ebola after treatment in Liberia in September. And while UN officials have warned that the epidemic is “not even close to over” there is good news coming out of Liberia where CDC officials say that the spread of the disease has definitely slowed. Lastly, the Gates Foundation has pledged $5.7 million to test treatments for Ebola in Guinea and other countries in West Africa and Band Aid has put together a new recording of “Do They Know It’s Christmas?” with proceeds going to the Ebola fight. (There are two other amazing anti-Ebola songs, in this link, too!)

Stories You May Have Missed

 

Image Credit: Oregon Live

Turkey Brooder Pneumonia

by juliadhomstad, posted in News

By Jonathon Marioneaux

This week we continue our series on bird diseases by diving into a fungal bird disease: Aspergillus fumigatus. We will begin by characterizing the physical and genetic qualities of Aspergillus fumigatus and move into a more detailed analysis of how it is spread. Finally we will wrap up by discussing what precautions you can take to keep our favorite holiday bird safe and healthy for the days to come.

Aspergillus fumigatus is a type of fungus that is commonly found in decaying matter and produces spores from the conidiophores during asexual reproduction that are 2-3 microns in size. Its optimal growth range is 37-50 degrees Celsius which is critical for the carbon and nitrogen cycle for breaking down plant and animal matter. It has a filamentous structure under the microscope and its fruiting bodies appear grey during spore release. A study in Nature found 29.4 million base pairs and 5,000 noncoding regions in its genome (Galagan et al., 2010).

A. fumigatus is an opportunistic pathogen that typically attacks immunocompromised individuals, such as those suffering from previous infections, or the very young. The most typical route of infection is pulmonary where the spores germinate in the warm moist areas of the lungs. The fungi evade immune systems attack through macrophages and lactoferrin (iron scavenger molecule) by overwhelming macrophages and lactoferrin production (Ben-Ami et. al., 2005). After successful germination, the fungi penetrate the pulmonary cell walls and in severe cases spread in the blood system for nutrient acquisition. The nutrients include iron, nitrogen, polypeptides, and byproducts, including gliotoxin, that suppress neutrophil activation through superoxide and apoptosis (Ben-Ami et. al., 2005).

In birds, A. fumigatus is spread principally through contaminated feed products or in unsanitary bedding conditions, however, it has been documented that spores can come through improperly cleaned air vents. Air sampling techniques have found seasonal variation among the types of Aspergillus with variations being significantly higher in the winter than the summer (Ben-Ami et. al., 2005). This may be a result of more spore production in drier conditions—there is an inverse relationship between humidity and spore production. Additionally, poults can be exposed to asymptomatic adult carriers and contract it through mechanical interaction. It typically attacks poults 5 days to 8 weeks of age, however, it has been found in birds with underlying genetic or other disease related conditions. Because the fungus mainly attacks the lungs, symptoms can include heavy or rapid breathing and yellow or grey nodular lesions in the respiratory tract, especially lungs and air sacs.

Currently there are no vaccinations or cost effective cure for A. fumigatus infections, therefore once an infection has been identified the bird must be isolated and culled. Vaccine trials have shown no immunity and in some cases a second exposure has proven fatal. The best protection against A. fumigatus infection is delivered through the preparation of clean bedding, food, and air and the prompt culling of infected animals (Ben-Ami et. al., 2005). In addition, increasing the humidity levels and a light spraying of germicide when the poluts are of sufficient size will also keep the risk of contracting the spores lower (Larson et al., 2007).

In summary, there is a lot of work that goes into creating healthy turkeys but with some simple steps and proactive work flocks will not be overrun by pathogenic A. fumigatus. The fungus is very necessary in the carbon and nitrogen cycle and only causes opportunistic disease in immunocompromised birds. So, enjoy your holiday turkey and next week we will continue our series and investigate more illnesses that plague our avian friends.

 

Image Credit: Champoeg Farm

Ben-Ami, R., Lewis, R. E. and Kontoyiannis, D. P. (2010), Enemy of the (immunosuppressed) state: an update on the pathogenesis of Aspergillus fumigatus infection. British Journal of Haematology, 150: 406–417. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2141.2010.08283.x

Galagan, J. (2005, October 5). Sequencing of Aspergillus nidulans and comparative analysis with A. fumigatus and A. oryzae. Retrieved November 16, 2014, from http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7071/full/nature04341.html

Larson, C., Beranger, J., Bender, M., & Schrider, D. (2007). Common Diseases and Ailments of Turkeys and Their Management. In How to Raise Heritage Turkeys on Pasture (pp. 35-52). American Livestock Breeds Conservancy.

Congrats to GMU Biodefense student Craig Wiener!

by juliadhomstad, posted in News, Program News

Craig-WienerGeorge Mason Biodefense PhD candidate Craig J. Wiener, Principal Consultant for Strategic Planning and Analysis at the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), was recently honored as the recipient of the Sidney D. Drell Academic Award by the Intelligence and National Security Alliance (INSA).

Washington Exec caught up with Craig and interviewed him about his work, his award, and his favorite books.

An excerpt follows and you can read the entire interview here.

WashingtonExec: What more do you think organizations in the intelligence community should be doing to engage the millennial workforce?

Craig Wiener: This is an important question – I am going to speak about this from my perspective as a TA over the last three years in the most sought after national security courses at GMU SPGIA. I have worked closely with approximately 150 masters and PhD students, many of whom are younger than I am, and many of whom you could describe as “millennials.”  They have specifically enrolled in the courses because of their desire to enter the intelligence community. These students are clearly talented, ambitious and are ready, willing, and able to work in areas of national security and intelligence activities, although for many, there are structural hiring impediments. Many of the students routinely discuss the difficulty of entering direct government service and ask for advice. The predominant issues I run across when speaking with them fall into basic two categories- the lack of an existing security clearance or lack of military service- both impediments are predominantly present in younger students, many of whom went from high school to college to graduate school.

I believe it is absolutely essential to provide an enhanced, simplified hiring authority to bring these types of students, and quite honestly their talent, energy and perspective into the government directly from graduate school. It is my understanding that some previously available pathways were discontinued due to legal challenges to previous parent programs. Therefore, I would specifically recommend a legally sound, phased direct hire process that is merit based regardless of prior military experience for graduate students with national security applicable academic training. This pathway would include the authority for universities who support the government in national security research to sponsor qualifying students for security clearances while they are still in school. I believe this future state program should include accommodations for qualified, actively cleared contract support staff who are concurrently in graduate school at the masters, JD or PhD levels, many of whom also cannot overcome the currently well-intentioned yet predominant hiring authorities. Members of this hybrid hiring track should have their prior work experience taken into account for appropriate grade in service appointments.

 

Image Credit: Washington Exec

Pledging Allegiance to the Islamic State?

by juliadhomstad, posted in News

By Erik Goepner

Jihadist groups from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Yemen, Algeria and Libya allegedly pledged their allegiance to IS over the past few days. The Terrorism Research and Analysis Consortium estimates 60 distinct groups from 30 separate regions now ally themselves with IS.

Some of these groups are long in the tooth, pre-dating the attacks of 9/11. Take, for example, the Abu Sayyaf Group that is fighting for an independent Muslim state in the southern Philippines. Comprised of approximately 400 fighters, they began operations more than 20 years ago. A bit further to the south and west, Jemaah Islamiyah has been conducting operations since 1993. With between 500 and several thousand members, they seek to establish an Islamic caliphate in Indonesia and all or parts of five neighboring countries. Another veteran group, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, wants to overthrow the Uzbek government and establish an Islamic state. They had their start in 1991.

Then, there are the notable post-9/11 creations who have allied themselves with IS. These include Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, estimated to be the “most lethal Qaeda franchise” (not to be confused with the AQ affiliate, al-Nusra Front, in Syria, with whom IS potentially forged a very recent peace accord). Additionally, Egypt’s “most active militant group”, Ansar Beit al-Maqd and its estimated 2,000 fighters, have also pledged allegiance to IS.

Finally, in a blur of frenzied change that gives new meaning to creative destruction and bandwagoning, a number of militant groups are simultaneously breaking old alliances, reinventing themselves, and forging new partnerships in the hopes of improving their return on investment. Inadvertent homage to western concepts notwithstanding, examples include Soldiers of the Caliphate in the Land of Egypt, Soldiers of the Caliphate in Algeria, and Soldiers of the Caliphate (in Libya). Experts estimate the “Soldiers of the Caliphate…” moniker might itself be an attempt to create a franchise, one that speaks to both local and global audiences. Moreover, it is a number of the smaller groups populating the “Soldiers of the Caliphate…” umbrellas that are thought to have splintered off from Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and other organizations. They seem to think a switch to IS offers better odds.

Week in DC: Events

by juliadhomstad, posted in Events, Week In DC

November 17, 2014

Debate on Law Enforcement vs. Smartphone Encryption: Is FBI “Going Dark” or in a Golden Age of Surveillance?
Date: November 17, 4:00pm
Location: New America Foundation, 1899 L street NW, Suite 400, Washington DC

The recent decision by Apple and Google to enable encryption by default on new iPhones and Android smartphones, so that only the user can unlock his or her phone, has led to strong complaints from law enforcement agencies arguing that the move will deprive them of critical evidence. The Attorney General and the FBI Director have gone so far as to suggest that Congress may need to step in and tell companies to redesign their products, to ensure that government investigators can access encrypted data or wiretap online communications when they have appropriate legal authority like a search warrant. However, technologists and privacy advocates say that such a move would undermine the overall security of our data and devices while also putting US companies at a serious disadvantage in the global technology marketplace, and point to the fact that law enforcement and intelligence agencies already have access to more data about us, our communications, and our movements than at any other time in human history—a veritable “Golden Age” of surveillance. Which side is right?

Join New America for a lively debate on this timely technology policy issue, followed by a question and answer session with the audience. On one side: former FBI General Counsel Andrew Weissmann, arguing for law enforcement’s interests. On the other side: legal scholar and former White House technology policy czar Professor Peter Swire, arguing in favor of strong encryption without backdoors for the government. In between as moderator:Nancy Libin, former Chief Privacy and Civil Liberties Officer at the Justice Department. Hosted by Kevin Bankston, Policy Director of New America’s Open Technology Institute.

Join the conversation online using #cryptodebate and following @OTI. RSVP here.

Israel: A Safe Haven for Christians in the Middle East
Date: November 17, 5:00pm
Location: EMET and The Israel Forever Foundation, Cannon House Office Building, Room 340, Washington DC

The Israel Forever Foundation and EMET are pleased to invite you to a discussion featuring Father Gabriel Naddaf from Israel, and Congressman Doug Lamborn (R-CO), on the plight of Christians in the Middle East and the freedoms they enjoy in Israel. Thousands of Christians throughout the Middle East are persecuted, slaughtered, and raped on a daily basis, because of their faith. Christians who refuse to convert to Islam are targets of radical Islamists and terrorists, and have been robbed of their basic liberties and freedom of worship. Christian communities that have lived in parts of the Middle East and Central Africa in peace for decades are rapidly decreasing. There is only one country in the Middle East where Christians are safe and have freedom of expression and worship – Israel.

Father Gabriel Naddaf is the head of the Greek Orthodox Church in the town of Yafia, near Nazareth in the North of Israel. He also serves as the spiritual leader of the Israeli Christian Recruitment Forum, a growing movement that empowers local Christians to volunteer for Israeli army service and fully integrate into mainstream Israeli society. Father Naddaf is a strong public voice of support for Israel and against the persecution of Christians in the Middle East. Father Naddaf’s activities have made him a controversial figure, drawing criticism from Arab MKs as well as threats against his family and attacks on himself from extreme anti-Israel communities. Last month Father Naddaf appeared before the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva to discuss the plight of Middle Eastern Christians.

RSVP here.

Project Sapphire 20 Years Later: Cooperative Threat Reduction and Lessons for the Future
Date: November 17, 5:30pm
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, 2nd Floor Conference Center, Washington DC

Twenty years ago, in November 1994, the United States and Kazakhstan completed an unprecedented, highly secret, joint operation removing approximately 600 kilograms of highly enriched uranium from a former Soviet nuclear plant in Ust-Kamenogorsk to permanent storage in the United States. The operation, dubbed “Project Sapphire”, was funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Cooperative Threat Reduction (Nunn-Lugar) Program. This program helped secure nuclear warheads and fissile materials in the former Soviet Union and ensured their relocation to Russia from Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belarus. Kazakhstan’s early decision to become a nuclear weapon-free state made it a global leader in the non-proliferation movement.

To mark the 20th anniversary of these efforts, please join us for a discussion of the history and lessons of U.S.-Kazakhstan joint efforts.

Register here.

November 18, 2014

Subcommittee Hearing: Fighting Ebola: A Ground-Level View
Date: November 18, 10:00am
Location: U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2172 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington DC

Chairman Smith on the hearing: “In our third hearing over the past four months on the Ebola virus in West Africa, the subcommittee will examine this fight from the vantage point of people on the ground who have been contracted to provide services, including patient treatment, local medical efforts and community disease education. It is imperative that in Congress’ efforts to work with the Administration we know how successful efforts have been to date and whether adjustments are needed to more effectively achieve disease mitigation goals.”

Scheduled witnesses include, Mr. Rabih Torbay, Senior Vice President for International Operations in the International Medical Corps, Mr. Brett Sedgewick, Technical Advisor for Food Security and Livelihoods for Global Communities, and Darius Mans, Ph.D., President of Africare.

The Global Response to Managing the Humanitarian Crisis: Lessons from Syria
Date: November 18, 10:00am
Location: Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Kenney Auditorium, 1740 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC 20036

António Guterres, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, will be the keynote speaker and various speakers will discuss this topic on two panels during the conference.

Register here.

Post-Conflict State-Building and Public Health Recovery: What Does the Ebola Pandemic in Liberia Teach?
Date: November 18, 12:00pm
Location: GMU School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution, Johnson Center, Room A, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax VA

A native of Liberia, Samuel Wai Johnson, Jr. is a Graduate Lecturer at George Mason University School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution undergraduate program. Last semester, he served as a Visiting Scholar at Eastern Mennonite University Department of Applied Social Sciences and Center for Justice and Peacebuilding. Before leaving Liberia in 2006 for studies in the US, Sam worked with UNICEF as a Policy Communications Officer and a development consultant for local NGOs on issues of poverty reduction and sustainable development. He is a visiting faculty at the University of Liberia Department of Economics. Sam holds MAs in International Development and Economics from Ohio University and an undergraduate degree in Economics from the University of Liberia. He is a PHD candidate at George Mason University School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution. His research focuses broadly on conflict-sensitive development and the economic dimensions of conflict and peace building, with a specific focus on the relationship between post-conflict development finance and peace building. He spent last summer in Liberia conducting field research for his dissertation where he saw firsthand the horrific impact of the Ebola pandemic on the country.

Subcommittee Hearing: Iranian Nuclear Talks: Negotiating a Bad Deal?
Date: November 18, 2:00pm
Location: U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2200 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington DC

Chairman Poe on the hearing: “According to reports, not much progress has been made since the last extension of nuclear talks in July. If the Iranians are buying for time, they shouldn’t get additional sanctions relief simply to kick the can down the road another 4-5 months. It’s time for Congress to hold the line and ensure that this Administration and the P5+1 don’t make a dangerous deal. This hearing will examine concerns over the current negotiations and also outline what an acceptable deal might look like.”

Scheduled witnesses include, Ray Takeyh, Ph.D., Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, Mr. J. Matthew McInnis, Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Mr. David Albright, President of the Institute for Science and International Security.

National Insecurity: American Leadership in an Age of Fear
Date: November 18, 5:30pm
Location: Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Kenney Auditorium, Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC 20036

A SAIS Foreign Policy Institute discussion of David Rothkopf’s new book, with Rothkopf and Shirin Tahir Kheli of SAIS. David Rothkopf is CEO and editor of the FP Group.

For information or to RSVP, go to http://ow.ly/DDfZO.

Germany’s Russia Policy: Commercial Realism and Geopolitics
Date: November 18, 6:00pm
Location: Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Rome 806, 1619 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC 20036

As the second largest exporter in the world and the pivotal power of Europe, Germany is one of the world’s leading geo-economic power. Like other geo-economic powers, Germany’s foreign policy can be characterized as one of commercial realism which defines the national interest in economic terms and elevates economic interests over more traditional strategic concerns, as we as over non-economic values such as human rights or democracy promotion. This strategic paradim is most evident in Germany’s relationship with Russia. This geo-economic approach toward Russia has been brought into question in the wake of Russian actions in Ukraine and now in northern Europe as well. How will Germany rebalance its economic and strategic concerns in its new relationship with Russia?

In his new book, Germany, Russia, and the Rise of Geo-Economics, Stephen F. Szabo provides a description and analysis of German policy towards Russia, revealing how unified Germany is finding a global role, in which interests do not always coincide with the United States or its European partners. He explores the role of German business and finance in the shaping of foreign policy and investigates how Germany’s Russia policy affects its broader foreign policy in the region and how it is perceived by key outside players such as the United States, Poland, and the European Union. Drawing on interviews with key opinion shapers, business and financial players, and policy makers, as well as a wide variety of public opinion surveys, media reports, and archival sources, this book is a key resource for all those wishing to understand the new geo-economic balance of Europe.

Stephen F. Szabo is a Professorial Lecturer at SAIS and executive director of the Transatlantic Academy, an independent research institute based at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Washington, DC. He is the author of numerous books and articles focusing on transatlantic relations and German foreign policy including Parting Ways: The Crisis in German-American Relations(2004).

Commentary will be provided by Angela E. Stent, Director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies and Professor of Government and Foreign Service at Georgetown University. She is also a Senior Fellow (non-resident) at the Brookings Institution and co-chairs its Hewitt Forum on Post-Soviet Affairs. From 2004-2006 she served as National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. From 1999-2001, she served in the Office of Policy Planning at the U.S. Department of State.

Register here.

November 19, 2014

The Iran Nuclear Talks: Problems and Prospects
Date: November 19, 12:00pm
Location: Heritage Foundation, Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington DC

As the nuclear talks with Iran approach a November 24 deadline, what are the prospects for an agreement that would prevent an Iranian nuclear breakout or sneak-out? What problems need to be resolved in order to reach a successful outcome in the negotiations?

Join Heritage Foundation panelists as they discuss these and other issues related to Iran’s nuclear program.

Register here.

Understanding the Global Threat of Ebola
Date: November 19, 2:00pm
Location: Universal Peace Foundation, Washington DC

The deadliest Ebola outbreak in history has, to date, affected more than 10,000 people, and the numbers continue to rise. In March 2014, the ebola virus was identified as a severe public health threat in three West African countries: Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. By September, Ebola emerged in Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda.

While there are major efforts by the international health community to prevent and control the deadly disease, it is spreading rapidly across Africa and poses a significant threat to nearly all of the developing and industrialized world. Thomas Eric Duncan, a Liberian who traveled to Texas to visit his family, was confirmed as the first case (and fatality) in the United States. Since his tragic death, The Dallas Health Presbyterian Hospital has identified 114 persons who were also exposed to Mr. Duncan during his treatment.

Scientists believe that the United Kingdom may be the next country to report infected persons followed by France. The World Health Organization
has estimated that ultimately Ebola will affect 1.4 million lives. But the impact of the disease is not just measured in human lives. The Ebola outbreak has grim economic consequences which will be felt beyond the affected countries in West Africa. The World Bank has estimated that the costs associated with the containment of the disease and economic impact in tourism, agriculture, global development could be as high as 3.5 billion dollars by the end of 2015.

A powerful defense strategy is needed against this modern plague. The panel will discuss the medical, social and economic impact of Ebola, the facts about transmission, and best containment practices.

November 20, 2014

The Struggle for Pakistan
Date: November 20, 12:00pm
Location: Hudson Institute, 1015 15th Street NW, 6th Floor, Washington DC

Pakistan’s precarious situation has made its government periodically susceptible to military control and its population vulnerable to extremist ideologies. After the events of 9/11, the terrorists entrenched within Pakistan’s borders became a subject of global concern. Thirteen years later, military missions and foreign aid to Pakistan have been of little lasting benefit to the state itself. As the United States has drawn down its military presence in South Asia, the struggle in, and for, Pakistan rages on.

In The Struggle for Pakistan, Dr. Ayesha Jalal, Mary Richardson Professor of History at Tufts University, traces the international actors and domestic factors that have contributed to the continued militarization and radicalization of Pakistan. Jalal demonstrates how contested borders with India and Afghanistan as well as an inconsistent relationship with the United States have led Pakistan to place a premium on security above all else. The Pakistani military has successfully capitalized on this mentality. Domestically, ethnic and sectarian clashes have fostered extremist tendencies. Jalal illustrates how these factors continue to threaten the development of strong institutions and democratic ideals—and how the dangers for and within Pakistan are from over.

On Thursday, November 20th, Hudson Institute will host a conversation with Dr. Ayesha Jalal about her new book The Struggle for Pakistan: Muslim Homeland and Global Politics. The discussion will be moderated by Ambassador Husain Haqqani, Hudson Institute Director for South and Central Asia and former Ambassador of Pakistan to the United States.

Register here.

November 21, 2014

Dialogue on the Crisis with Russia
Date: November 21, 12:00pm
Location: Aspen Institute, 1 Dupont Circle NW #700, Washington DC

A discussion featuring: Stephen J. Hadley, Principal, RiceHadleyGates LLC and Former National Security Advisor; Strobe Talbott, President, The Brookings Institution and Former Deputy Secretary of State; and Angela Stent, Director, Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies, Georgetown University.

Moderated by Nicholas Burns, Director, Aspen Strategy Group; Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Politics, Harvard Kennedy School

The Washington Ideas Roundtable Series is made possible with the generous support of Michelle Smith and the Robert H. Smith Family Foundation.

The Good War: Why We Couldn’t Win the War or the Peace in Afghanistan
Date: November 21, 12:15pm
Location: New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW, Suite 400, Washington DC

In its earliest days, the American-led war in Afghanistan appeared to be a triumph—a “good war”—in comparison to the debacle in Iraq. It has since turned into one of the longest and most costly wars in U.S. history and now, many wonder if Afghanistan will fall to Taliban control after the United States and NATO forces withdraw. The story of how this good war went so bad may well turn out to be a defining tragedy of the 21st century—yet as acclaimed war correspondent Jack Fairweather explains, it should also give us reason to hope for an outcome grounded in Afghan reality, rather than our own.

Please join New America as we welcome Jack Fairweather, a former foreign correspondent for the Daily Telegraph and the Washington Post, who won the British Press Award for his reporting on the Iraq invasion, to discuss his book with Peter Bergen, the Director of the International Security Program at New America.

RSVP here or watch the live webcast.

Preparing for the Future: Assessing the Conditions and Capacity for American Engagement with Russia
Date: November 21, 2:30pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 6th Floor, Washington DC

The continuing diplomatic tensions between the United States and Russia have had a significant impact on programs that promote civic and individual contacts between Americans and Russians. Exchange programs serve as capacity-building initiatives influencing economic growth and jobs and how enterprises and individuals interact with their peers on the other side. A panel of experts and practitioners will discuss how organizations and individuals dedicated to the mission of engagement between Russian and the United States are pursuing their work in the current atmosphere.

RSVP here.

Reimagining ‘Post-Soviet’ Central Asia
Date: November 21, 3:30pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Suite 412, Voesar Conference Center, Washington DC

In the newly independent states of Central Asia, geopolitical practices and affinities cannot be understood in isolation from their Soviet heritage. However, after nearly 25 years since the collapse of the USSR, this near-automatic explanation of contemporary politics in terms of Soviet legacies is no longer sufficient for understanding Central Asia’s shifting geopolitics. In this paper, I analyze how geopolitical identities are narrated through urban development schemes in Astana, Baku, and Ashgabat – and in particular how they are increasingly connected to new flows of actors, ideas, and finance from the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Adopting a critical geopolitics approach, I compare and contrast elements of these capital city development schemes in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan with those in Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Through this comparative analysis, I demonstrate how region-making and geopolitical orientations unfold not just at the level of rhetorical positioning, but can also develop through the material practices of cross- regional networks around highly specific political tactics, like capital city development. Also considering divergences, I note that although the urban landscapes these tactics materialize are very similar, there are important differences in the underlying political geographic and political economic factors that make them possible, as well as the political relations they sustain and produce.

RSVP here.

Pandora Report 11.16.14

by juliadhomstad, posted in Pandora Report, Uncategorized

Its getting pretty cold outside, right? So what better way to spend your Sunday than catching up on all the best stories of the week! This week we’ve got Wikipedia as a predictive took for the spread of disease, a catchy new name for Chikungunya, MERS CoV in Saudi Arabia, some stories you may have missed, and, of course, an Ebola update.

How Wikipedia Reading Habits Can Successfully Predict the Spread of Disease

In my absolute favorite story of the week, researchers have identified a link between the spread of disease and the corresponding page hits of those diseases on Wikipedia. No, the Internet isn’t giving people E-bola, but page views seem to have a predictive effect on infectious disease spread. During the three-year study, looking at readers’ habits, the researchers could predict the spread of flu in the U.S., Poland, Thailand, and Japan, and dengue in Brazil and Thailand at least 28 days before those countries’ health ministries.

The Washington Post—“Official government data—usually released with a one- or two-week lag time—lagged four weeks behind Wikipedia reading habits, according to Del Valle; people, she said, are probably reading about the illnesses they have before heading to the doctor.”

The ‘Vacation Virus’

As Chikungunya makes it way through the Americas, awareness of the disease becomes more important—including the creation of a catchy nickname! The vector, transmissibility, and symptoms are similar to Dengue and with Chikungunya being relatively new to the western hemisphere, a story like this one may be helpful in putting a human face on a growing problem.

The Atlantic—“It might be parochial to call Chikungunya a “vacation virus”; however, as Americans prepare to hit the Caribbean beaches in the coming winter months, awareness campaigns are ramping up. Last week, the travel section of the New York Times ran a feature on Chikungunya highlighting how tourism agencies and organizations are both downplaying the scope of the outbreak and advising simple measures to deal with the virus. (Avoid mosquitos.)”

MERS Cases on the Rise in Saudi Arabia

Since September 5, there have been 38 new cases of MERS-CoV in Saudi Arabia, bringing the total number of cases in Saudi Arabia to 798. The WHO said that due to the non-specific symptoms of MERS, it is critical that health care facilities consistently apply standard precautions with all patients regardless of their initial diagnosis. Furthermore, until more is understood about MERS, immunocompromised individuals should practice general hygiene measures, like hand washing, and avoid close contact with sick animals. Nearly one third of the new cases were reported by patients who had recently had close contact with camels.

Outbreak News Today—“The continued increase in cases prompted Anees Sindi, deputy commander of the Command and Control Center (CCC) to say, “MERS-CoV is active and we need to be on full alert.” In addition, the Saudi Arabia Ministry of Health launched a new public information campaign in Taif in response to the recent spike in new cases of MERS-CoV in the region. Medical professionals will be made available at public locations with the aim of educating citizens on the need to avoid unprotected contact with camels because of the risk of infection with MERS-CoV, underlining the crucial role of the community in preventing the spread of the disease in the Kingdom.”

This Week in Ebola

Ebola is on the rise again in Sierra Leone bringing the number of deaths to 5,147 and cases to 14,068. It appears that the virus is finding new pockets to inhabit including villages outside the Liberian capital and in Bamako, the capital of Mali (eclipsing earlier success in that country at containment.) Despite these new infections outside of Monrovia, Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has ended the state of emergency in that country. Unsurprisingly, the epidemic has imposed a financial burden on the affected countries including losses in agricultural trade and the service industries. Elsewhere in Africa, Ugandan health officials have declared the country free of an Ebola-like Marburg virus. Stateside, a new report from the CDC outlines steps taken in Dallas to prevent further virus spread and a third Ebola patient headed to the bio containment unit at the Nebraska Medical Center for treatment. Finally, 80 U.S. Military personnel helping to fight Ebola in Liberia returned home this week, and though none are displaying symptoms, they will be monitored for 21 days at Joint Base Langley-Eustis in Virginia.

Stories You May Have Missed

 

Image Credit: Wikipedia

Libyan Town in the Hands of IS?

by juliadhomstad, posted in News

By Erik Goepner

In early October, the Islamic Youth Shura Council announced that Darnah, Libya, had joined the Islamic State’s caliphate.  Alternatively referred to as Derna or Darna, 80,000 call the city home.  Sitting along the Mediterranean, Darnah has a “notorious” reputation as a center for the recruitment of fighters for the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.  Two hundred miles to its east lies the Libyan border with Egypt, while Benghazi sits 180 miles to Darnah’s west.

Darnah, Libya

Relatively unknown, the Islamic Youth Shura Council (aka MSSI) is thought to have begun operations in March of this year under the banner of al-Qaeda.  The current rift between al-Qaeda and IS notwithstanding, the Islamic Youth Shura Council is now one of 20+ jihadi groups which have pledged their allegiance to IS.  With things moving so quickly and on-the-ground access for journalists often too risky, the affiliation between the two groups remains uncertain.

At the same time, Tripoli and Benghazi are purportedly under the control of Islamist groups as well, though those groups have no known affiliation with the Islamic Youth Shura Council.  In Tripoli, a federation of dubious unity, known as Fajr Libya, appears to be nominally in control, while in Benghazi multiple groups have also loosely aligned themselves, the largest of which is Ansar al-Shariah.  Against this backdrop of insecurity, Khalifa Haftara, an ex-Libyan general, now leads an interesting array of forces attempting to reassert government control.  He oversees Libyan military units, ostensibly under government control, along with assorted militiamen; loyal, it would seem, only to him.

 

Map Credit