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Pandora Report 12.13.2024

December 13, 2024December 20, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report covers the rush to find the former Assad regime’s hidden chemical weapons, a recent study on H5N1’s potential to become an efficient human pathogen, Nobel laureates’ call for the Senate to block RFK Jr. from becoming HHS Secretary, and more.

Assad Regime Falls

On Sunday, Syrian rebels continued their advance, taking the capital city of Damascus and forcing the country’s long-time leader, President Bashar al-Assad, to flee to Moscow. This ended the country’s 13-year-long civil war and toppled a brutal dictatorship known to have, among other things, used chemical weapons against its own civilians. Now, the country is strapped for cash and being led by opposition forces with limited experience in governance.

Adding to the chaos is the mad dash to locate the former Assad regime’s chemical weapons it hid from inspectors. Among the list of missing weapons are more than 360 tons of mustard gas that the Assad regime admitted to making, but never fully accounted for. There are also five missing tons of precursors for sarin that the Assad regime claimed were “Lost during transportation, due to traffic accidents.”

The OPCW said it is monitoring the situation, reaffirming its commitment to “clarifying gaps, discrepancies, and inconsistencies in Syrian chemical weapons declaration amidst political transition.” Rebels in the south of the country have reached out to the OPCW for support in safely disposing of a cache of CW they found. One US official told the press the US is working with other countries in the Middle East to prevent these weapons from falling into the wrong hands. Meanwhile, Israel reported that it has destroyed CW and other weapons caches while seizing areas along its shared border with the country it claims are part of a demilitarized buffer zone.

Pandora Report 12.6.2024

December 6, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report covers news from the Biodefense Graduate Program, the winners of the 2024 OPCW-The Hague Award, reports of a mysterious illness in the DRC, and much more.

Biodefense Doctoral Student Selected for Next Generation Leader Program

First-year Biodefense PhD student Katie Dammer was recently selected for the Next Generation Leaders program as part of the Spirit of Asilomar conference that will be held in February 2025. “The Spirit of Asilomar and the Future of Biotechnology” summit will occur on the 50th anniversary of the 1975 international meeting on recombinant DNA, where scientists discussed the hazards and benefits of emerging biotechnology and voluntarily agreed to set new standards for the regulation of biohazards. The 2025 iteration of this summit will focus on artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, pathogen research, and other related topics. Dammer currently is a Biosecurity Fellow at the Horizon Institute for Public Service working as the Special Assistant for Global Health Security & Biodefense at the National Security Council.

2024 OPCW-The Hague Award Recipients Announced

Last month, OPCW Director-General Amb. Fernando Arias and The Hague Mayor Jan van Zanen announced the winners of this year’s OPCW-The Hague award: Alegeria’s National Institute of Criminalistics and Criminology of the National Gendarmerie (NICC/NG) and the Indian Chemical Council (ICC). NICC/NG is “a forensic science institute focused on advancing crime-fighting capabilities by integrating scientific methods into judicial and criminal processes.” The ICC “is a chemical industry body recognized for its role in promoting chemical safety, compliance with the Convention, and enhancing industry-wide security practices in India.” Read more about the recipients and this year’s award selection here.

DRC Reports Outbreak of Unknown Flu-Like Illness

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Africa CDC, and WHO are investigating an outbreak of an unknown, influenza-like disease in Kwango province that has infected at least 376 people and killed at least 67 (though some outlets report 143 deaths) since late October. Africa CDC reports that symptoms include fever, headache, cough, difficulties breathing, and anemia. Children under five are the most affected group, accounting for more than half of all cases and the majority of deaths. The outbreak started in the Panzi Health Zone, a remote part of the province. Officials report that they did not learn of the outbreak until six weeks after it began. In better news, the WHO has confirmed that the DRC’s mpox outbreak appears to be “plateauing”.

Raw Milk Recalled in California Following Bird Flu Detection

In a predictable turn of events, a farm in California has made a voluntary recall of its products and halted production after samples of its products tested positive for avian influenza. The recall has expanded since the initial recall of two lots of product on November 21. The California Department of Food and Agriculture has quarantined the farm and suspended the distribution of raw milk, cream, kefir, butter, and cheese products produced on or after November 27. The farm in question, Raw Farm of Fresno, has gained popularity with fans of social media “health influencers” and HHS Secretary nominee RFK Jr.. It frequently sells its products in natural supermarket chains like Sprouts Farmers Market.

The brand fell under FDA and CDC scrutiny earlier this year amid E. coli concerns, though the company insists it was the victim of “severe bias” from the agencies. Mark McAfee, CEO of Raw Farm, is insisting now that the actions taken by the state are politically-driven, despite samples of his company’s products testing positive for the virus. McAfee appears to have been encouraged by RFK Jr. to apply for a position at the FDA as the “FDA advisor on raw milk policy and standards development.”

Read more here.

“Biocrimes: Safeguarding Clinical and Public Health Microbiology Labs Against Insider Threats”

Casey Shroeder authored this piece for Lab Manager, writing in part “Within clinical and public health microbiology laboratories where scientists work to diagnose infections and/or protect public health, the potential for biocrimes and insider threats is a serious risk that is often overlooked. These laboratories, which handle not only routine human pathogens but also antimicrobial resistant strains, emerging pathogens, and potential biothreat pathogens, must remain vigilant against those who might exploit their access for malicious purposes.”

“Bacteriologic and Genomic Investigation of Bacillus anthracis Isolated from World War II Site, China”

Wu et al. recently published this article in Emerging Infectious Diseases: “Records suggest Bacillus anthracis was used in biowarfare during World War II, but evidence remains limited. We isolated B. anthracis from soil at the remains of a World War II–era laboratory in China. Phenotypic and genomic analyses confirmed the finding, highlighting the value of microbial forensics in biothreat investigation.”

“Modern Warfare is Breeding Deadly Superbugs. Why?”

Francesca Mari recently published this piece in The New York Times Magazine, explaining in part “By 2050, The Lancet predicts that antimicrobial resistance will kill 8.22 million people per year, more than the number currently killed by cancer. (For context, Covid claimed an estimated three million lives during all of 2020.) And a growing body of research suggests that the 21st-century way of warfare has become a major driver of that spread. Nations of the Middle East, like Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan, now suffer from particularly high rates of multidrug-resistant pathogens, and some of the world’s most fearsome superbugs have incubated in the region — Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, E. coli, MRSA and perhaps most notably A. baumannii, a strain of Acinetobacter that traveled home with U.S. soldiers, where it became nicknamed “Iraqibacter.”’

“Global Report on Infection Prevention and Control 2024”

From WHO: “Health care-associated infections (HAIs) affect patients and health systems every day, causing immense suffering, driving higher health-care costs and hampering efforts to achieve high-quality care for all. HAIs are often difficult to treat, are the major driver of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and cause premature deaths and disability. The COVID-19 pandemic, as well as outbreaks of Ebola, Marburg and mpox are the most dramatic demonstrations of how pathogens can spread rapidly and be amplified in health care settings. But HAIs are a daily threat in every hospital and clinic, not only during epidemics and pandemics. Lack of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) in health care settings not only affects the application of infection prevention and control (IPC) best practices but also equity and dignity among both those providing and receiving care. However, there is strong evidence that a large proportion of these infections could be prevented with IPC measures and basic WASH services, with a high return on investment. This second global report on IPC provides updated evidence on the harm caused to patients and health workers by HAIs and AMR, and presents an updated global analysis of the implementation of IPC programmes at the national and health care facility levels across all WHO regions. “

Bloomberg FOIA Files: Kremlin Targeting Putin’s Political Adversaries, Has Ability to Assassinate Targets with Chemical and Biological Weapons

In this edition of Bloomberg News’ FOIA Files, Jason Leopold discusses a recently-released memo from ODNI discussing targeting killings of Vladimir Putin’s political adversaries, and the means by which the Russian state is able to accomplish this. In the memo, intelligence officials assessed that “Russia has the capability to assassinate individuals using chemical and biological agents,” and that they have the means to track dissidents and defectors. The memo also explains that “The development of chemical or biological agents with lower risk of attribution might tempt the Kremlin to consider assassinating individuals,” in addition to discussing the death of Russian businessman Alexander Perepilichnyy, who was “reportedly assassinated with a biological toxin in the UK in 2012 shortly before he was scheduled to testify about a Kremlin tax fraud network.”

“Reviving Chemical Weapons Accountability in a Multipolar World”

The Center for Strategic and Strategic & International Studies published this commentary by Natasha Hall and Doreen Horschig ahead of the 29th Session of the Conference of States Parties of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. In it, they discuss the strain the CWC has faced in the last decade and how its strength might be restored. They write in part, “Next week’s conference presents an opportunity to revitalize efforts toward accountability and global cooperation. The United States, in particular, is in a position to reverse course on the dangerous erosion of the chemical weapons norm and maintain the integrity of the CWC. But to do so, it will need to engage friend and foe alike.”

“The Islamic Republic’s Work on Pharmaceutical Based Agents”

This report was authored by Mohammadreza Giveh and the Good ISIS Team for the Institute for Science and International Security. “This report discusses multiple Iranian security complexes that have been preparing production of fentanyl and medetomidine based incapacitating and lethal agents. These complexes have been working on pillars of producing those weapons: large-scale cost-efficient synthesis of the compounds with maximum potency, evaluating a stable chemical mixture based on those agents that can be aerosolized using a propellant, and developing the delivery of the agents through grenades, bullets, or drones.”

“Chemical Weapons Disinformation in Ukraine”

From GP WMD Counter Disinfo, this series includes three briefs: “Understanding Russia’s Chemical Weapons Allegations in Ukraine,” “Selected Examples of CW Allegations and Related Disinformation Campaigns from the Russian Federation,” and “Strategy and Impacts of CW Disinformation”.

“Chemical Weapons Use in Ukraine Testa Global Norms to Breaking Point”

Lennie Phillips OBE and Gareth Williams discuss Russia’s use of CW in Ukraine and how it affects the CWC and OPCW in this RUSI piece, writing in part “A riot control agent found in samples collected from the confrontation lines in Ukraine by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons implicates Russia in yet another breach of the Chemical Weapons Convention. But what steps can states parties to the convention take next?”

“Russia Fails to Make OPCW Executive Council for Second Year Running”

Patrick Norén discusses Russia’s failure to be elected to the OPCW’s Executive Council for the second year in a row in this piece for CBNW.

“How Might Large Language Models Aid Actors in Reaching the Competency Threshold Required to Carry Out a Chemical Attack?”

Stendall et al. recently published this article in The Nonproliferation Review: “Artificial intelligence is a rapidly growing field, increasingly driving innovation in the sciences. This is a double-edged sword, with the benefits of scientific discovery tempered by potential opportunities for weaponization and misuse. Specifically, the implications for chemical security and chemical weapons are becoming increasingly clear. This article analyzes how large language models (LLMs)—particularly chatbots and chemical LLM assistants—might enable actors to better reach the competency threshold for a chemical attack, via enhanced methods for the identification, production, and use of chemical weapons. This would be particularly relevant for those at the lower end of the capability spectrum, such as terrorist groups and rogue individuals. An important historical context is provided throughout the article, with chemical attacks of the past illuminating the dangerous consequences of an easier-to-achieve competency threshold. A counterargument is also provided, analyzing the factors that might still limit malicious actors, as well as a description of how LLMs might be used to combat chemical terrorism. The article then concludes with a short list of key policy and governance suggestions for mitigating the risks.”

Read or listen to CNS’ interview with Stendall on this article here.

“Chemical Terrorism: Assessment of U.S. Strategies in the Era of Great Power Competition”

From NASEM: “Domestic and foreign violent extremist organizations, or terrorist groups, have caused a greater amount of harm with chemical agents than with biological or radiological weapons. The United States capacity and capability to identify, prevent, counter, and respond adequately to chemical threats is established by the strategies, policies, and laws enacted across multiple levels of government. While the number of chemical terrorism incidents has risen and fallen over time, there is no empirical or analytical indication that the threat is disappearing. This report comes at a time when the nation’s highest-level strategies have shifted from focusing primarily on violent extremist organizations to focusing more on Great Power Competition. This shift in relative perceived threat and consequent prioritization will impact efforts against chemical terrorism, and in turn, affect funding priorities. Revised risk assessments are needed to reprioritize risks guided by new strategies, so that strategy-aligned budgets can be created. The report recommends weapons of mass destruction budgets be aligned with evolving priorities and incentivize activities that transition promising research to operations.”

“Nuclear Terrorism: Assessment of U.S. Strategies to Prevent, Counter, and Respond to Weapons of Mass Destruction”

From NASEM: “For nearly eight decades, the world has been navigating the dangers of the nuclear age. Despite Cold War tensions and the rise of global terrorism, nuclear weapons have not been used in conflict since Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Efforts such as strategic deterrence, arms control and non-proliferation agreements, and the U.S.-led global counterterrorism have helped to keep nuclear incidents at bay. However, the nation’s success to date in countering nuclear terrorism does not come with a guarantee, success often carries the risk that other challenges will siphon away attention and resources and can lead to the perception that the threat no longer exists.”

“This report found that U.S. efforts to counter nuclear or radiological terrorism are not keeping pace with the evolving threat landscape. The U.S. government should maintain a strategic focus and effort on combatting terrorism across the national security community in coordination with international partners, State, Local, Tribal and Territorial authorities, the National Laboratories, universities and colleges, and civil society. Developing and sustaining adequate nuclear incident response and recovery capabilities at the local and state levels will likely require significant new investments in resources and empowerment of local response from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy, and National Institutes of Health.”

“Ecological Threat Report”

The Institute for Economics & Peace recently released the fifth edition of its Ecological Threat Report, ” which analyses ecological threats in 207 independent states and territories. The report covers 3,518 sub-national areas which account for 99.99 per cent of the world’s population. The ETR assesses threats relating to food insecurity, water risk, natural disasters, and demographic pressure…The research takes a multi-faceted approach by analysing ecological threats at the national, subnational, and city level, while also assessing the threats against societal resilience and levels of peace. Comparing ecological threats against societal resilience enables IEP to identify the global regions, countries, and subnational areas most at risk of an ecological disaster, both now and into the future.”

“Healthcare Cybersecurity: HHS Continues to Have Challenges as Lead Agency”

This snapshot from the Government Accountability Office discusses previous GAO findings about HHS’ performance in healthcare cybersecurity, explaining that HHS has yet to implement all of GAO’s recommendations to address its challenges in this area. It concludes that “Until HHS implements our prior recommendations related to improving cybersecurity, the department risks not being able to effectively carry out its lead agency responsibilities, resulting in potential adverse impact on healthcare providers and patient care.”

“Lebanon: A Conflict Particularly Destructive to Health Care”

The WHO recently released this news post explaining that more health workers and patients have been killed proportionally in Lebanon than in Ukraine and Gaza, with 47% of attacks on health care in the country proving fatal as of November 21-a higher percentage than in any active conflict today globally. Read more here.

What We’re Listening To 🎧

Grow Everything Biotech Podcast, 103. DNA of Defense: Alexander Titus on How NSCEB is Advancing Biotech for National Security Challenges

“Karl and Erum bring on Dr. Alexander Titus, a commissioner on the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology, to explore the exciting and challenging intersections of biotechnology and policy. Alexander shares his experiences from his unique journey across academia, government, and industry, diving into the role of biosecurity, the potential of synthetic biology, and the emerging convergence of tech and bio. They discuss ambitious projects like de-extincting the woolly mammoth, advances in biodefense, and the impacts of AI on biotech innovation. It’s a conversation that sheds light on how cutting-edge biotech could shape the future and the necessary balance between innovation and ethical responsibility.”

Listen here.

NEW: How to Avoid Human-Made Pandemics

This event will take place on January 23 at 8 pm (GMT +8:00) via Zoom. RSVP here.

NEW: Preparedness in Rural Communities: National and State/Local Perspectives and Plans

This event will take place on January 30 and 31, from 11 am to 2 pm ET each day. Learn more and register here.

Enhancing the Resilience of Healthcare and Public Health Critical Infrastructure: A Workshop

From NASEM: “Healthcare and public health infrastructure, technology, and operations are rapidly changing and are increasingly interdependent and interconnected. Threats to the nation’s critical social and physical infrastructure systems are also rapidly evolving and highly complex—posing potentially new or growing risks of disruption and challenging the assumptions used to design and protect these systems.”

“The National Academies Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Disasters and Emergencies will host a hybrid public workshop to explore strategies, policies, and innovative actions to improve the resilience of healthcare and public health (HPH) critical infrastructure to impacts from disasters and other emergencies.”

This event will take place in DC on December 9 and 10. Register here.

A New Paradigm for Threat Agnostic Biodetection: Biological Intelligence (BIOINT)

From PNNL: “Please join us in welcoming Swati Sureka, Strategy and Policy Analyst at Arctic Slope Regional Corporation (ASRC) Federal, where she supports the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Readiness Policy and Oversight. Her talk, titled “A New Paradigm for Threat Agnostic Biodetection: Biological Intelligence (BIOINT),” will take place on Tuesday, December 10th, at noon PT.”

Learn more and RSVP here.

Resilience in the Face of Global Risks

From CSR: “The Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) cordially invites you to our first annual CSR symposium, Resilience in the Face of Global Risks, scheduled for Tuesday, December 10, 2024. This is the first event bringing together all three of CSR’s institutions—the Center for Climate & Security, the Converging Risks Lab, and the Janne E. Nolan Center on Strategic Weapons—to engage with leaders across our mission sets.”

“The United States and its allies face a complex global security landscape where systemic risks like climate and ecological crisis, nuclear proliferation, and biological threats are blending with war, geopolitical competition, and human insecurity in new and profound ways. While there has been tremendous leadership—and meaningful progress—across these overlapping risk areas, they require persistent innovation in community building to meet the modern risk landscape.”

“The symposium will dive into the progress our communities have made—and how our passionate communities can better work together to help shape the future.”

“In addition to a keynote address, guests will hear from panels, take part in breakout sessions showcasing important issues and new ideas, plus engage with thought leaders between sessions. It will be a widely attended gathering, free to attendees.”

“As we enter a new year with an exceptionally dynamic security environment, we hope CSR’s December event will inspire and build a stronger community across professionals dedicated to anticipating and addressing the world’s greatest risks. We appreciate your consideration and hope you will be able to join us on the 10th of December.”

RSVP here.

Cyberbiosecurity Summit

NEW: Call for Experts, Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats

“The National Academies is seeking suggestions for experts to be considered for the membership rotation or other engagement with the Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats. The group will help inform the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) on critical science and policy issues related to emerging infectious diseases and other health threats.”

“Since March 2020, the standing committee has consistently generated real-time policy recommendations and produced an unprecedented amount of timely, evidence-based guidance in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and other emerging public health threats. Looking ahead, the standing committee will continue to ensure that ASPR and decision-makers have access to the latest high-quality, evidence-based insights to inform medical and public health preparedness for, response to, and recovery from disasters and public health emergencies.”

“Approximately 12-15 volunteer experts are needed to serve on the standing committee of approximately 25 members.”

Learn more and submit nominations by December 13 here.

Pandora Report 11.22.2024

November 22, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s edition of the Pandora Report includes updates from the Biodefense Graduate Program, information on the upcoming BWC Working Group meeting, updates on mpox and avian influenza in California, and much more.

Mazanec Moving Up at ASPR

Brian Mazanec, Biodefense PhD ’14 and adjunct professor at the Schar School, has started a new role as Deputy Assistant Secretary and Director of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Coordination Operations and Response Element (H-CORE) within the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR). H-CORE was born out of Operation Warp Speed– the COVID-19 medical countermeasures response led by HHS and the Department of Defense which transitioned to ASPR in 2021. H-CORE’s mission today is to lead and enable agile, data-driven operational coordination, logistics readiness, and scalable response for public health emergencies and disasters, including infectious disease outbreaks and cyber attacks. H-CORE also now includes the Office of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection, Secretary’s Operation Center, and Office of Data, Analytics, and Information Advantage.

Pandora Report Hosting the Gryphon Scientific Biosecurity Collection

The Pandora Report is now hosting a collection of papers published by Gryphon Scientific. This page serves as a repository for a selection of reports and publications from Gryphon Scientific, a research and policy consultancy that performed cutting-edge work in biosafety, biosecurity, and all-hazards preparedness and response. Over the past two decades, Gryphon supported senior decision makers within government and the commercial sector in evaluating emerging technologies and understanding how to enable their rapid development while safeguarding against their associated risks. Notably, Gryphon was commissioned by the NIH in 2016 to conduct an extensive risk-benefit analysis of gain-of-function research with potential pandemic pathogens. Gryphon was also at the forefront of AI safety, with a particular focus on the intersection of AI and biological and chemical threats. Gryphon is now continuing and expanding its work as part of Deloitte Consulting LLP.

Transforming Defense with Biotechnology: Insights From DARPA’s Dr. Michael Koeris

Biotechnology is playing an increasingly pivotal role in strengthening national defense, with the potential to enhance military capabilities and address emerging security challenges. On November 13, the Biodefense Graduate Program at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University hosted a lecture by Dr. Michael Koeris, the recently appointed director of DARPA’s Biological Technologies Office (BTO). Dr. Koeris’ talk offered attendees a look into the cutting-edge research being done at BTO to revolutionize U.S. military capabilities through biotechnology. With a focus on warfighter readiness and operational biotechnology, Dr. Koeris shared how DARPA is developing next-generation solutions to enhance military personnel’s health and performance in increasingly complex environments. The discussion provided a unique opportunity to delve into the innovative technologies that DARPA is developing, from optimizing warfighter stamina in their AWARE (Alert Warfighter Enablement) program to their GOLDEVAC (Golden Hour Extended Evacuation) program, which is designed to provide wounded warfighters with expert-level care in austere environments when medical evacuation is delayed.

DARPA, created after the Sputnik crisis in 1957, was designed to prevent technological surprise by pushing the United States to the forefront of military innovation. DARPA focuses on strategic, high-yield programs that align with the latest technological realities, especially in fields like AI and biotechnology. DARPA intentionally pursues extremely risky programs, seeking transformational change over incremental progress, and often learns just as much from their failures. When projects do succeed—such as the development of self-driving vehicles, drones, and mRNA vaccines—they have had worldwide impacts. The agency aims to develop breakthrough technologies by maintaining agility and leveraging short program timelines to stay ahead of global technological developments. These technologies strengthen military readiness, enhance medical responses to biosecurity threats, and ensure peak performance under combat conditions. One of the main challenges discussed by Dr. Koeris was the global “data race,” especially in the field of biological data. While the United States is making progress, China’s aggressive collection of genetic and biological data has put it ahead in developing foundational biological models. This data gap poses risks to U.S. national security, as high-quality biological data is essential for AI and biotechnology advancements. To remain competitive, the United States must focus on generating diverse, original biological data to feed AI models and drive further innovation in biotechnology. As Dr. Koeris emphasized in his lecture, DARPA is committed to ensuring that the United States remains a global leader in biotechnology and national security. By strengthening its position in both data collection and its application in biotechnology, the United States can ensure it stays ahead in the race to shape the future of national defense. The lecture by Dr. Koeris shed light on the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead, leaving us better informed about the potential contributions that advances in biotechnology can make to national security.

This event summary was authored by Biodefense MS Student Katie Groves.

BWC Update
The fifth session of the Working Group on the Strengthening of the Biological Weapons Convention will take place from 2 to 13 December 2024 in Geneva, Switzerland. The agenda of the Working Group, as adopted at its first session, is available online as document BWC/WG/1/1. Details about the meeting, official documents, and side events can be found here.

Further reading:

“BWC Confidence-Building Measures: Increasing BWC Assurance Through Transparency and Information Sharing,” Politics and the Life Sciences, Matthew P. Shearer, Christina M. Potter, Rachel A. Vahey, Nicholas Munves, and Gigi Kwik Gronvall
“What Will Be the Impact of AI on the Bioweapons Treaty?” The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, James Revill, Clarissa Rios, and Louison Mazeaud

Bonus: Check out NTI | bio’s two December 2024 BWC Meetings here (one of these is a hybrid event).

California Announces Suspected Avian Flu Case in Child

The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) announced this week that testing has identified a suspected avian influenza infection in a child in Alameda County. The child had mild upper respiratory symptoms and no known contact with any infected animals. The child is recovering at home, and CDPH says that the positive test “showed a low-level detection of the virus, indicating the child was not likely infectious to others.” Repeat testing four days later was negative. Furthermore, the child was found to also be positive for other respiratory viruses that may have caused the mild symptoms. No person-to-person spread has been detected nor is it suspected.

Further reading: “The World Is Watching the U.S. Deal With Bird Flu, and It’s Scary,” The New York Times, Tulio de Oliveira

California Confirms First Known US Clade I Mpox Case

CDPH also reported this week that it detected the first known US case of Clade I mpox. The case was identified in a person who recently traveled from Africa and it is related to the ongoing outbreak in Central and East Africa. The case has been reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The person received care in San Mateo County and is now isolating and recovering at home. Those who had close contact with this person are being contacted by public health workers, but there is currently no concern nor evidence that clade I mpox is spreading between people in California or the US in general.

Jay Bhattacharya Reportedly Top Candidate to Lead NIH

Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford University physician and economist who drew sharp criticism from the likes of Francis S. Collins for his “fringe” ideas about COVID-19 in the letter known as the Great Barrington Declaration, appears poised to be nominated to a top government health role. Bhattacharya is reportedly on the shortlist of contenders to lead the NIH compiled by RFK Jr., President-Elect Trump’s nominee for HHS Secretary. According to the The Washington Post, “Bhattacharya, who has said he was a victim of what felt like a “propaganda attack” led by public health experts after the Great Barrington Declaration, has testified in Congress, met with lawmakers in both parties, and offered advice to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and other leaders navigating the pandemic. Republicans have hailed him as a truth-teller, contrasting the Stanford physician with government officials whom they blame for an overly stringent response to the health crisis.”

Bhattacharya has no experience in a senior government role nor in a role overseeing a large bureaucratic organization. This position requires Senate confirmation. Read more about Bhattacharya’s previous experience and comments about the organization he may soon lead here.

Further reading: “Global Health Experts Sound Alarm Over RFK Jr., Citing Samoa Outbreak,” The Washington Post, Sammy Westfall and Lena H. Sun

Survey of Biosafety and Biosecurity Laws in G20 Nations
The Library of Congress has published a comprehensive overview of biosafety and biosecurity laws for the member of the Group of 20 (G20) as well as a comparative analysis of these laws. According to the report, “Among the G20 nations’ laws discussed in this report, the methods for defining the terms “biosafety” and “biosecurity” generally fall into one of four categories. In the first category, “biosafety” and “biosecurity” are clearly defined in legislation or regulations, with specific distinctions. In the second set of jurisdictions, the term “biosecurity” is applied generally to topics such as laboratory safety, protecting the environment, and guarding against criminal activity involving biological agents that may harm people, plants, animals, and the environment. In other nations, laws may include one identified term, but government strategy statements or publications by government-related scientific organizations supplement the available legal definitions with more detailed descriptions of “biosafety” and “biosecurity.” The remaining nations addressed in this report have enacted laws addressing biosecurity matters, but these laws contain no legal definitions for “biosafety,” “biosecurity,” or similar terminology.”

ISAB Report on PRC, MCF, and Biotechnology
The Secretary of State’s International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) has released a new report on the biotechnology components of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) Strategy, with a focus on biotechnology development objectives, implementation, and implications for international biosecurity. ISAB provides the Department with a continuing source of independent insight, advice, and innovation on all aspects of arms control, disarmament, nonproliferation, outer space, critical infrastructure, cybersecurity, the national security aspects of emerging technologies, international security, and related aspects of public diplomacy. The ISAB’s goal is to advise the State Department and other federal agencies on how the United States can adapt to the changing global biotech landscape, particularly in the context of strategic competition with PRC. The report proposes that the Department of State and other U.S. government agencies take steps to develop a global biotech system in which a broad range of partners cooperates on scientific research and trade. This requires a long-term strategic approach, and the leadership of the Department of State, to build this global environment that aligns with U.S. interests.

“WHO Technical Advisory Group on the Responsible Use of the Life Sciences and Dual-Use Research: Report of the Meeting, 25 June 2024”

From WHO: “The World Health Organization (WHO) Technical Advisory Group on the Responsible Use of the Life Sciences and Dual-Use Research (TAG-RULS DUR) (1) was established to provide independent advice to WHO on the monitoring and mitigation of biorisks, the advances in the life sciences and related technologies, the governance of dual-use research and the responsible use of the life sciences.””

“This meeting was the second virtual meeting and third overall meeting of 2024. Over the course of the meeting, participants discussed and provided feedback on the first draft of the BioRisk Implementation and Evaluation Framework (BRIEF) Tool, were briefed on the draft WHO course on Dual-Use Research and the Responsible Use of the Life Sciences and delivered updates on activities of the TAG’s four working groups.”

“The TAG-RULS DUR and its working groups will continue to undertake activities on the key topics identified. The group agreed that its next meeting will be held in October 2024.”

Read the meeting report here.

“Age of Biology Requires American Leadership”

Sen. Todd Young, Chair of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology, recently authored this opinion piece for Roll Call in which he discusses a forthcoming report from the Commission discussing actions needed to “maintain and strengthen America’s global leadership position” in biotechnology. He explains in this piece that “Congress must enact policies that accelerate innovations at home, onshore our supply chains, create data-sharing agreements with our allies, and support our military’s use of novel biotechnologies. Broadly, this will be the focus of the NSCEB’s forthcoming Final Report in 2025. Policymakers must protect and promote American biotechnology to ensure the United States leads the Age of Biology, and I am confident the NSCEB will contribute to these efforts.”

“Guidance for Human Genome Data Collection, Access, Use and Sharing”

From WHO: “The ethical, legal, and equitable sharing of human genomic data is critical to advancing global health research and ensuring fair access to the benefits of genomics. The WHO’s new document outlines a comprehensive set of globally applicable principles designed to guide stakeholders in the responsible collection, use, and sharing of human genome data. This document serves as a key resource to navigate complex issues surrounding data governance, with the aim of fostering transparency, promoting equity, and safeguarding individual and collective rights. These principles are intended to support the implementation of best practices across diverse settings, thereby enhancing the global capacity for genomic research and its translation into health benefits for all.”

“The Superbug Fight Needs a Better Business Model”

Annalies Winny published this piece in Global Health Now discussing the dearth of antibiotic research, writing in part “Researchers say that the current business model for developing antibiotics—and getting them to where they’re needed most—isn’t fit for purpose. Countries are starting to get behind incentives that absorb some of the risk, and offer a significant return on investment. But funding for these programs still lags far behind what’s needed to save millions of lives, and billions of dollars in health care costs, and there are doubts about whether incentives led by wealthy nations will satisfy needs in low- and middle-income countries.”

“Gaza Bombardment Worsens Superbug Outbreaks”

Misbah Khan published this piece for The Bureau of Investigative Journalism describing the growing public health crisis in Gaza. She writes in part, “There is a growing and dire public health crisis taking place in Gaza. Israeli blockades and hospital bombings are fuelling a superbug emergency, with civilians who survive starvation and injury later facing untreatable, life-threatening infections…Doctors on the ground told the Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ) they were treating wounds infested with maggots and using vinegar to fight infections.”

“Potential Research Priorities to Inform U.S. Readiness and Response to Avian Influenza A (H5N1)”

From NASEM: “Avian Influenza A (H5) viruses have circulated globally for decades among migratory bird populations. The recent emergence of Avian Influenza A (H5N1) in U.S. dairy cattle has led to challenges in managing and controlling the spread of H5 viruses between livestock, wildlife, and companion animals, as well as to humans from infected animals. The National Academies hosted a public workshop in October 2024 to explore potential research priorities that could inform readiness and response to the outbreak. Discussions followed an interdisciplinary One Health approach, bringing together experts from across human, veterinary, plant, and environmental health disciplines, and builds on published federal research priorities for H5N1 to include perspectives beyond basic translational clinical sciences, to social sciences, veterinary health, agricultural economics, and occupational health, among others.”

Read the proceeding of this workshop here.

“Diagnosis in the Era of Digital Health and Artificial Intelligence: Proceedings of a Workshop-in Brief”

From NASEM: “To explore the opportunities and challenges of using artificial intelligence (AI) and digital health technologies to improve diagnostic processes and outcomes, the National Academies Forum on Advancing Diagnostic Excellence hosted a public workshop in July 2024. Speakers highlighted the role of these technologies throughout the diagnostic process and their impact on the patient experience, including to gain understanding of a patient’s onset of symptoms, to improve information gathering and patient-clinician communication, and to support clinical decision making. Discussions also emphasized the importance of ensuring these technologies do not perpetuate existing health disparities.”

Read the proceedings here.

“OPCW Investigation Confirms Russia’s Likely Use of Chemical Weapons Against Ukraine”

Andrea Stricker authored this analysis of recent OPCW findings regarding Russia’s likely use of CW in Ukraine. She explains that “Russia’s consistent denials that its military forces have deployed illegal chemical weapons in Ukraine were dealt a serious blow on November 18, when the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) announced that it had recently conducted a Technical Assistance Visit to Ukraine and established evidence of chemical weapons use. While the OPCW stopped short of attributing responsibility to Russia, a growing body of evidence points to numerous Russian chemical weapon attacks against Ukrainian front-line troops in violation of the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Moscow is a party.”

“Research and Development Areas to the North of Hamhung”

Read the latest installment of RUSI’s Project Anthracite analysis of the DPRK’s chemical industry and CW program: “The area to the north of the city of Hamhung is home to academic institutions and research and development (R&D) facilities. Furthermore, there are access tunnels to likely underground areas in the vicinity, and the wider region is home to significant chemical industry. Although literature on these facilities is limited, satellite imagery has been analysed to determine whether it is possible to discern any linkages with or provide insight on North Korea’s chemical industry or chemical weapons (CW) programme. Although evidence was circumstantial and no direct linkages could be identified on imagery, the analysis was able to confirm the location of several academic and R&D facilities and contribute to baselining potential academic and R&D facilities in the area.”

“While the location of at least part of a CW programme in or around these facilities cannot be ruled out, there were no features that would indicate the likely presence of a CW programme in these facilities.”

“NNSA celebrating 50 years of the Nuclear Emergency Support Team – NEST”

“This month, NNSA is observing the 50th anniversary of what is now called the Nuclear Emergency Support Team – or NEST. During a recent ceremony at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, leaders from around the government gathered to celebrate the birthday of one its most diverse and capable assets…NEST, created by President Ford in 1974, has a mission to provide federal emergency response in case of a radiological or nuclear threat, incident or accident.”

Read more about NEST, its formation, and its future here.

NEW: DC Biosecurity Happy Hour

From DC Biosecurity Professionals Across Academia, Industry, and Think Tanks: “Please join us for the Biosecurity Happy Hour, an informal event for biosecurity professionals in DC to get to know each other outside of Zoom calls and talk about new ideas in this space. Please note that drinks will be at attendee’s own expense!”

This event will take place on December 5 from 6:30-8 pm EST at Dacha Beer Garden in Washington, DC. Learn more and reserve a spot here.

NEW: A New Paradigm for Threat Agnostic Biodetection: Biological Intelligence (BIOINT)

Learn more and RSVP here.

NEW: Cyberbiosecurity Summit

One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 Book Launch

The Writer’s Center is hosting a book launch for Dr. Laura Kahn’s new book, One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 (blurb below) on November 23 at 2 pm EST in Bethesda, MD. Learn more and RSVP here.

“One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 unpacks the mysteries of COVID-19’s origins to impart important lessons for future outbreaks. The One Health concept recognizes the interconnected links among the health of humans, animals, plants, and the environment. By comparing the history, science, and clinical presentations of three different coronaviruses—SARS-CoV-1, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)—Kahn uncovers insights with important repercussions for how to prepare and avoid future pandemics. The One Health approach provides a useful framework for examining the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the origins of this zoonotic disease requires investigating the environmental and molecular biological factors that allowed the virus to spread to humans. The book explores the many ways in which the wild animal trade, wet markets, and the camel industry contributed to the spread of the earlier SARS-CoV-1 and MERS coronaviruses. For SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), Kahn examines the biosafety, biosecurity, and bioethics implications of gain-of-function research on pandemic potential pathogens. This book is a must read to understand the geopolitics of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

2024 CBD S&T Conference

From DTRA: “The CBD S&T Conference brings together the most innovative and influential chemical and biological defense community members from around the globe to share insights and collaborate on the emerging chem-bio threats of tomorrow.”

“Join the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA) Chemical and Biological Technologies Department in its role as the Joint Science and Technology Office (JSTO) for Chemical and Biological Defense, an integral component of the Chemical and Biological Defense Program, as we Focus Forward to uncover novel concepts and examine groundbreaking discoveries within the chem-bio defense landscape.”

“The 2024 CBD S&T Conference will be held at the Broward County Convention Center, December 2–5, 2024.”

Learn more and register here.

Health Security Intelligence: Managing Threats Risks and Hazards Post-Covid 19
“As the acute impact of the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, many unaddressed questions remain for Australia about how to better prepare for the next likely health threat, risk or hazard.”

“In addition to how we enhance national public health capacity, what are the important lessons we can learn from the pandemic from national security and biosecurity perspectives?”

“Given the likelihood of another pandemic at some point, an increasingly uncertain geo-political order and the potential exploitation of biotechnology by bad actors how does Australia and its allies better prepare for a future of increasingly complex health security and biological security threats, risks and hazards?”

“This event is for all health security intelligence stakeholders (policy-makers, national security staff, scientists, researchers and clinicians) who work across the one health continuum and national security agencies.”

“It will introduce participants to Charles Sturt’s extensive research agenda across the one health biosecurity, health and biological security and discuss both their national security and scientific implications. You will hear briefings from key researchers across both STEM and social sciences disciplines working on assessing key health security threats, risks and hazards relevant to your work.”

This event will take place in-person and over livestream on December 4 from 2-4 pm AEDT. Learn more and register here.

Enhancing the Resilience of Healthcare and Public Health Critical Infrastructure: A Workshop

This event will take place in DC on December 9 and 10. Register here.

Resilience in the Face of Global Risks

“The symposium will dive into the progress our communities have made—and how our passionate communities can better work together to help shape the future.”

RSVP here.

NEW: Call for Nominees: National Biodefense Science Board
From Global Biodefense: “The Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), is currently seeking applications from qualified individuals to fill 7 vacancies on the National Biodefense Science Board (NBSB).”

“The NBSB advises the HHS Secretary or the ASPR on current and future trends, challenges, and opportunities presented by advances in biological and life sciences, biotechnology, and genetic engineering with respect to threats posed by naturally occurring infectious diseases and chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear agents.”

Read more and access ASPR’s call for nominees here.

“New Public Health Cybersecurity Readiness Survey Set to Boost Preparedness Against Cyber Threats”

“The co-chairs of the Joint Public Health Cybersecurity Task Group of the Healthcare and Public Health Sector Coordinating Council (HSCC) published a special announcement letter announcing the launch of the Public Health Cybersecurity Readiness Survey. The move aims to enhance the cybersecurity preparedness of state, local, tribal, and territorial (SLTT) public health agencies. Participants can expect the anonymous survey to take about 15 minutes to complete, and it will be open until Monday, Dec. 2, 2024.”

Pandora Report 11.15.2024

November 15, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report includes program news, updates on H5N1 and the pandemic agreement negotiations, and coverage of Africa CDC’s new mpox clinical trial and Ukrainian reporting on alleged Russian chemical weapons use.

All-BIOD Panel at the Tucker Symposium on Chemical and Biological Weapons

On November 13-14, the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies hosted the 13th Annual Jonathan B. Tucker Symposium. The symposium is held in honor of Jonathan Tucker who dedicated his career to fighting the scourge of chemical and biological weapons. The first panel of the symposium was composed of two alumni of the Biodefense Graduate Program at the Schar School of Policy and Government: Yong-Bee Lim, Biodefense PhD ’21, and Minh Ly, MS Biodefense ’21. Dr. Lim, who is the Deputy Director of the Converging Risks Lab at the Council for Strategic Risks, gave a presentation on “Technology Democratization and its Implications for CBW Safety and Security: Lessons Learned from Engagement with Non-Traditional Communities.” Ly, who is a Research Fellow at CNS, served as the moderator. In his talk, Dr. Lim discussed his research on the Do-It-Yourself Biology community: a grassroots, decentralized community drawn together by a shared passion for biological experimentation, fostering innovation, and a desire to democratize access and use of life sciences materials, equipment, knowledge, and tools. While often discussed as a potential biosecurity threat in policy circles, Dr. Lim’s research found that much of the conventional wisdom on this community is oversimplified or incorrect. Dr. Lim’s talk concluded with three key lessons learned from his engagement with the community: 1) there is often a gap between perception and reality about biorisks that can lead to improper metrics and incorrect assessments that complicate policy formulation and implementation; 2) as the life sciences are practiced by more people, it is imperative to positively engage and receive buy-in from these communities on addressing biorisk issues; and 3) preventing and countering CBW will be increasingly difficult in a world where definitions for key terms such as biosecurity, democratization, and terrorism are either changing or have no global consensus.

*Minh Ly (left) and Yong-Bee Lim (right)*

Biodefense Program Bowling Party at the White House

On November 7, a group of students, faculty, and alumni from the Biodefense Graduate Program at the Schar School of Policy and Government went bowling at the Harry S. Truman Bowling Alley in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. Competition was fierce, but friendly, between Team Smallpox, Team Anthrax, Team Plague, and Team Ebola. In between strikes, spares, and gutter balls, the group enjoyed coffee, pastries, and lively conversations. Biodefense master’s student Tyler Smith won a fall-themed White House challenge coin for achieving the highest score. Team Smallpox, composed of MS Biodefense students Will MacDonald and Tyler Smith, Biodefense PhD student Annette Prieto, and Biodefense PhD alum Jen Osetek, emerged victorious and walked away with more White House merch. “This was an amazing experience,” said Annette, who works as a Technical Analyst at RAND, “The fun and friendly competition we shared in such an iconic setting made for an unforgettable day and helped build bonds that will extend beyond the lanes.” Program director Gregory Koblentz was rusty but managed to throw one strike and two spares after a healthy infusion of caffeine. The bowling party was graciously hosted by Biodefense PhD student Katherine Dammer who is Special Assistant for Global Health Security and Biodefense at the National Security Council.

Avian Influenza Updates

Canada Reports First Domestically Acquired Human H5N1 Case

The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) confirmed the country’s first domestically acquired human case of avian influenza (caused by H5N1) earlier this week. On November 9, the Office of the Provincial Health Officer for British Columbia reported that a BC teenager was hospitalized and tested presumptive positive for H5N1. On November 13, PHAC’s National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg confirmed the test result and that genomic sequencing indicated that the virus is related to the H5N1 viruses circulating in poultry in British Columbia. Provincial officials are conducting an investigation and are taking actions like contact tracing, testing, and offering antiviral medication to contacts. No further cases have been identified at this time, and it is not clear how the teenager was infected.

PHAC says that the risk to the general public remains low at this time, but the risk is higher for those with unprotected exposure to infected animals. Importantly, the genotype of H5N1 avian influenza in US dairy cattle is not the same as the one confirmed in the domestically acquired human case in BC. No cases of avian influenza have been reported in Canadian dairy cattle, and there is no evidence of its presence in Canadian milk samples.

CDC Calls for Expanding Testing

Federal health officials called for more testing of farmworkers after a CDC study showed that 7% of those tested in Michigan and Colorado had antibodies indicative of a previous H5N1 infection. Only one of the eight workers reported working with infected cows, despite all eight of them doing so. CDC explained in a statement that “…there are two primary ways that workers in the United States have been infected with H5N1 virus: via exposure to infected poultry during culling activities, and through exposure to infected dairy cows, including while caring for sick cows, or when working in a milking parlor, the area on the farm where cows are milked.”

Based on this, the agency has updated its existing recommendation on actions to prevent exposures to H5N1 infected animals, including:

“Decreasing human exposure through One Health control strategies and biosecurity to limit H5N1 virus infections in animals.”
“Enhancing personal protective equipment (PPE) guidance to more clearly detail what PPE is appropriate for exposure risk levels (high, medium, and low) in farming and poultry culling operations, alongside more robust worker training on proper use of PPE.”
“Identifying exposed workers and providing appropriate testing as well as post-exposure prophylaxis (i.e., efforts to limit spread of disease), and treatment (e.g., antivirals).”
“Offering testing to asymptomatic workers with a high-risk exposure who reported not wearing relevant PPE or who experienced a PPE breach or failure.”
“Increasing outreach and education with farm workers, employers, and advocacy groups to stress and ensure understanding of these messages and strategies.”

The CDC has also updated recommendations for testing and offering oral antiviral medications. This includes the recommendation that asymptomatic workers with a PPE-unprotected, high-risk exposure to sick animals be offered oseltamivir. The statement explains that a high-risk exposure “could include an unprotected splash in the face with raw cow milk from an infected or potentially infected cow, or not using recommended PPE during activities to depopulate poultry at a poultry farm with known H5N1.” The recommendations also include offering influenza A(H5) testing to asymptomatic workers who have had a high-risk exposure to animals infected with H5N1, whether or not that worker chooses to begin PEP.

The Pandemic Agreement Will Not Be Ready by December

Co-chairs of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Intergovernmental Negotiating Body (INB), Ambassador Anne-Claire Amprou and Precious Matsoso, explained at a media briefing earlier this week that the pandemic agreement will not be adopted at a special World Health Assembly next month as initially thought. They indicated that this was because countries need “more time,” though the INB is already in its 12th meeting following 32 months of negotiations. Ambassador Amprou said at the briefing, “Today, member states agreed we need to conclude the agreement as soon as possible and continue negotiations into 2025 with the goal of concluding the agreement by the next WHA scheduled in May 2025, so we are moving in the right direction with a strong political commitment by member states.”’

Africa CDC Launches Mpox Drug Trial

The Africa CDC recently announced the launch of a trial of the antiviral drug brincidofovir as a treatment for mpox. Brincidofovir, sold under the brand name Tembexa, is a prodrug of cidofovir and is currently approved in the United States to treat smallpox. The trial, “The MpOx Study in Africa (MOSA),” will evaluate the safety and efficacy of brincidofovir with the drug’s developer, Emergent BioSolutions, announcing that it will be conducted and sponsored by PANTHER-the pandemic preparedness platform for health and emerging infectious response.

The trial was announced shortly after the total number of cases of mpox in this outbreak surpassed 50,000. Jean Kaseya, MD, Director General of Africa CDC, said in a statement “Africa is not just responding to the Mpox outbreak; we are leading the charge by spearheading research and development for Mpox therapeutics…The MpOx Study in Africa is a groundbreaking step toward developing an effective treatment that will save lives. This goes beyond research—it’s about African ownership and leadership in tackling our continent’s health challenges through essential research.”

Ukrainian General Staff Reports 323 Uses of Russian CW Use in October

Ukraine’s General Staff reported on November 8 that it had detected 323 Russian uses of CW on the battlefield in October. This brings the total to 4,613 uses reported by Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. An August investigation from the Kyiv Independent showed that Russia’s use of CW is growing, with some Ukrainian soldiers reporting dealing with up to six attacks daily. The United Kingdom announced sanctions against relevant Russian units last month, and the US Department of State cited Russian use of chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops in its announcement of more than 280 sanctions against individuals and entities tied to Russia earlier this year.

Emerging Infectious Diseases-“Vol 30, No. 14 Supplement – Reports from the US Department of Defense Global Emerging Infections Surveillance Program”

David M. Brett-Major writes in this issue of CDC’s Emerging Infectious Diseases‘ introduction, “This supplement contains new technical outputs and perspectives from the Global Emerging Infections Surveillance (GEIS) program within the Department of Defense (DoD). GEIS develops, invests in, disseminates, and integrates information from health surveillance activities conducted by military, academic, public health, and other partners. GEIS-funded researchers from around the world provide novel surveillance data that are used to update the military and civilian outputs from this long-standing initiative.”

“Trump Administration’s Chance to Lead on Pandemic Preparedness”

Syra Madad discusses the incoming administration’s opportunity to leverage lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic in this piece from the Belfer Center, writing in part “As the Trump administration prepares to take office, it faces a pivotal moment to leverage hard-earned lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic and build a more resilient, pandemic-prepared nation. The challenges of managing the first year of COVID-19 exposed critical vulnerabilities in our fragmented public health infrastructure and decentralized healthcare system. The administration is now uniquely positioned to prioritize pandemic preparedness as a matter of national security. This proactive approach is more important than ever, particularly given the current threat posed by H5N1 avian influenza, which is spreading rapidly among wild birds – among other species and causing outbreaks in U.S. poultry and dairy herds. Recent human cases among farmworkers exposed to infected livestock further underscore the urgency of this threat.”

“Cyberattacks on Healthcare: A Global Threat That Can’t Be Ignored”

Vibhu Mishra wrote this piece discussing UNSC’s interest in protecting healthcare infrastructure against cyberattacks for UN News: “An alarming surge in ransomware attacks is putting the world’s healthcare infrastructure at critical risk, endangering patient safety and destabilising health systems, the head of the UN World Health Organization (WHO) warned on Friday, as the Security Council convened to discuss strategies to counter the growing threat.”

Read more here and read the WHO Director-General’s remarks from the meeting here.

“Robust Biosecurity Measures Should Be Standardized at Scientific Cloud Labs”

Jeffrey Lee and Barbara Del Castello recently authored this commentary piece for the RAND Corporation. In it, they discuss clous labs and argue that “By adopting comprehensive security measures, including routine evaluations and monitoring via artificial intelligence (AI), the scientific community, ideally through a consortium, can harness the full potential of cloud labs while ensuring safe and secure research environments.”

“The U.S. Could Soon Face a Threat ‘More Powerful’ Than Nuclear Weapons”

Ashish K. Jha, Matt Pottinger and Matthew McKnight discuss the implications of rapid advancement in synthetic biology and how to achieve bioweapons deterrence in this Washington Post opinion piece. They point to the importance of superior intelligence gathering and analysis, writing that “For deterrence to work, Washington and its allies must have a robust, pervasive system for tracking and, where possible, eliminating highly dangerous research around the world.” However, they explain that the primary challenge to expanding and improving US BIOINT efforts is not technology, but resolve, with Congress having recently watered down the Biden administration’s budget request for pandemic prevention and biosurveillance efforts outlined in the 2023 Biodefense Posture Review remaining underfunded. They conclude that BIOINT alone won’t deter adversaries, but that all necessary elements of bioweapons deterrence depend on world-class BIOINT.

“Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools”

From NTI: “The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with the life sciences offers tremendous potential benefits to society, but advances in AI biodesign tools also pose significant risks of misuse, with the potential for global consequences.”

“AI biodesign tools (BDTs) are technologies that enable the engineering of biological systems. These tools are trained on biological data and are developed to provide insights, predictions, and designs related to biological systems. BDTs have the potential to drive progress in the development of new therapeutics and are likely to have a significant impact across the broader bioeconomy, including in agriculture, health, and materials science. However, there are risks BDTs could be misused to design dangerous pathogens, and few safeguards exist to ensure that the benefits of these technologies can be realized safely and securely.”

“Innovative strategies are needed to reduce the risks associated with potential misuse of biological design tools without significantly hindering beneficial uses. This report identifies a number of strategies, referred to as guardrails, that could be developed to safeguard BDTs against misuse.”

Read the report here.

What We’re Listening To🎧

Build the Base Podcast-Tracy Frost and Dr. Kate Sixt, DoD Research and Engineering OUSD
“In this episode of Building the Base, Lauren Bedula and Hondo Geurts sit down with Tracy Frost, Director of Technology Industrial Innovation Base, and Dr. Kate Sixt, Principal Director for Biotechnology at the Department of Defense. The conversation explores the revolutionary intersection of biotechnology and national security, diving into how the DoD is leveraging bio-manufacturing to strengthen domestic supply chains and innovate defense capabilities. From converting waste products into valuable materials to creating new pathways for manufacturing critical components, the discussion reveals how public-private partnerships are reshaping America’s industrial base.”

One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 Book Launch

Enhancing the Resilience of Healthcare and Public Health Critical Infrastructure

This event will take place in DC on December 9 and 10. Register here.

Resilience in the Face of Global Risks

“The symposium will dive into the progress our communities have made—and how our passionate communities can better work together to help shape the future.”

RSVP here.

2024 CBD S&T Conference

“The 2024 CBD S&T Conference will be held at the Broward County Convention Center, December 2–5, 2024.”

Learn more and register here.

“In addition to how we enhance national public health capacity, what are the important lessons we can learn from the pandemic from national security and biosecurity perspectives?”

This event will take place in-person and over livestream on December 4 from 2-4 pm AEDT. Learn more and register here.

NEW: “New Public Health Cybersecurity Readiness Survey Set to Boost Preparedness Against Cyber Threats”

Pandora Report 11.8.2024

November 8, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report discusses one Biodefense MS student’s research on malaria, the UK’s recently-announced sanctions against 56 people and entities linked to Russia, the CDC’s call for more avian influenza testing, and what a second Trump administration likely means for US public health and global health security.

Biodefense MS Student Presents at Malaria Research Symposium

Zachary Berliner, a Biodefense MS student, is presenting a poster at the 10^th Annual Future of Malaria Research Symposium in Baltimore, MD, on November 8. This conference, jointly run by the Johns Hopkins Malaria Research Institute and the University of Maryland School of Medicine, provides “a platform for early-career scientists to share their research with peers, emerging leaders, and established investigators.” In 2023, nine cases of locally acquired malaria occurred in the United States, the first such cases in twenty years. Zak’s project, Public Opinions Toward Malaria Control Interventions in the National Capital Region, featured a survey of adults in the National Capital Region about their opinions toward various malaria control interventions. His study serves as an indicator of preliminary opinions among a small group of Americans to better inform politicians. His poster can be found here, and the full paper can be found here. The poster is based on the capstone paper that Zak wrote as a culmination of his experience in the Biodefense program. Zak is graduating with his MS in Biodefense in December and is looking for policy and analysis opportunities focused on biodefense and health security.

United Kingdom Announces Sanctions on 56 People and Entities Linked to Russia

The UK announced its largest sanctions package against Russia since May of last year this week, in a series of actions the government hopes “disrupts the supply of vital equipment for Putin’s war machine and bears down on Russian malign activity globally, exposing the corrupt activities of Russian proxy military groups in Africa.” Those sanctioned include Denis Sergeev (who was charged by the Met Police in the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal), entities in China, Turkey, and Central Asia, Africa Corps and other private mercenary groups linked to the Kremlin, and others. The UK is the first G7 country to directly sanction Africa Corps, which has directly threatened peace and security in Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic.

CDC Calls for Expanded Bird Flu Testing as California and Washington Report More Cases

Officials at the CDC called for more testing on farms with avian influenza cases after a recent study found some dairy workers have shown signs of infection even though they did not report feeling sick. The study that 7% of the 115 farmworkers whose blood was tested (eight) had antibodies consistent with previous H5N1 infection, pointing to more infections than the 46 identified so far. More cases in farmworkers have also been reported in recent days, including at least four in California and three in Washington. The California Department of Public Health also recently reported one other probable case in a dairy worker who met the case definition, though CDC’s confirmation test was negative.

What Lies Ahead in Trump’s Second Term

President-Elect Trump’s recent victory likely will have severe implications for both domestic health policy and global health security. The first Trump administration largely failed in its response to the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the US ranking very well in pre-pandemic preparedness assessments like the Global Health Security Index and the Trump administration being handed a pandemic playbook by the preceding Obama administration that specifically flagged novel coronaviruses as a potential pandemic threat. The upcoming second Trump administration looks ready to fair just as poorly in terms of not just pandemic preparedness, but in general public health and global health engagement as well.

The president-elect, who has repeatedly and falsely claimed that climate change is a hoax, has promised to rollback federal regulations on the oil and gas industry that are aimed at slowing climate change. Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 Paris Climate Accord in 2017, and his campaign has indicated it intends to do the same again once he is back in office. Trump is also expected to target the EPA during his second term. Changes like this are especially concerning as the effects of climate change, such as increased extreme weather and easier spread of infectious diseases, pose a growing threat globally.

Trump does plan to involve at least one environmental lawyer in his administration-Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an environmental lawyer who Trump has suggested may play a large role in public health in his administration. Unfortunately, Kennedy has no training in public health or medicine, and he has repeatedly peddled anti-vaccine conspiracy theories over the years. Kennedy also faced backlash for comments suggesting COVID-19 was “ethnically targeted,” saying “COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese…We don’t know whether it was deliberately targeted or not but there are papers out there that show the racial or ethnic differential and impact.” Kennedy has also voiced criticism of the childhood vaccine schedule and public water fluoridation, claiming the latter is “lowering IQ in our children,” in contrast to what numerous studies over multiple decades show about its safety and efficacy.

Trump has promised to allow Kennedy to “go wild on” health, medicines, and food policy, with Kennedy saying he believes entire departments at the FDA “have to go.” Kennedy has also said he wants an eight-year-long “break” in NIH funding for infectious disease research, and that he would move that money to chronic disease research. Congressional Republicans have targeted the NIH in recent years, including efforts to strip its authority over gain of function research and repeatedly attacking former NIAID Director, Anthony Fauci.

Trump’s second term also may pose threats to global health security more directly. For example, in 2020, the Trump administration formally notified the United Nations that it intended to withdraw the country from the World Health Organization. This move would have cut off one of the largest funding sources to the WHO in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, some experts argue the attempt was unlawful, in addition to the threat it posed to domestic and global health and security. While the Trump campaign mentioned few specifics about foreign policy for a second term, the United Nations is bracing itself for this incoming administration.

This week’s election results have many experts deeply concerned about what this administration will bring. Saskia Popescu, an alumna of the Schar School’s Biodefense PhD Program and current adjunct professor at the school made this statement to The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists about the election result’s implications for public health: Right now, I think you’d be hard-pressed to find many in public health, healthcare, and pandemic preparedness/response, who are not deeply concerned. The recent notion that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could be in charge of public health for the United States poses a real danger. From his claims that vaccines are harmful or unnecessary to his proposed efforts to remove fluoride from public water systems, Kennedy continuously pushes anti-science rhetoric and dis/misinformation.

History has shown us what might happen under another Trump administration during times of crises, from extreme weather events to a pandemic. We have seen how an administration that pits itself against science and dedicated public service officials reacts. As we face an ongoing H5N1 outbreak, persistent outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, an erosion of trust in public health, a rise in dis/misinformation, and widening social disparities, we need leadership that will unite rather than divide.

We are at a critical time in forming effective and pragmatic policies to address complex issues such as the ways in which developments in artificial intelligence (AI) will affect biosecurity, the safety and security around critical research of dangerous pathogens, the effects of climate change on infectious diseases, and the need to strengthen global health through equity and partnership.

Developing policies in these areas will require strategies based on collaboration and evidence-based measures–not inflammatory, inaccurate, and harmful rhetoric that furthers partisan divides and enflames social discourse. It’s our responsibility to find a path that ensures the protection of public health and global health security. We’ve got a lot of work to do, and I fear a hard road ahead of us.

Others have voiced concerns about a return to US isolationism in global health, Trump not seeking out quality scientific advice, policies regarding vaccines, and more that can be read in this piece from The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

“HHS’ ASPR Playing ‘Quarterback’ for Cyber Response, Resilience”

Jason Miller discusses ASPR’s cyber efforts with Biodefense PhD Program alumnus, Schar School adjunct professor, and current Deputy Director of ASPR’s Office of Preparedness in this piece for Federal News Network: “Just a little over a year ago, that coordination was occurring, but not as smooth as it needed to be. We took some steps, and actually now have a Public Health Service, captain, or an 06 officer, permanently embedded within the National Cyber Investigative Joint Task Force, that the FBI leads. We have a HHS ASPR person embedded full time with the FBI agents and other law enforcement folks who work in that task force and really are dealing with very sensitive information and responding to cyber incidents in the healthcare sector every day,” said Mazanec on Ask the CIO. “That’s just another example where we’ve really tightened up and continue to mature our partnership with the FBI. We do work with the other health focused entities like the Veterans Affairs Department, the Defense Health Agency, certainly within HHS, with the Indian Health Service and with the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services.”

Read more here.

“GHSD Five-year Strategy 2024-2028 (October 2024)”

The State Department’s Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy recently released its strategic plan for 2024-2028: “The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the importance of preventing, detecting, and responding to health crises to safeguard American lives and the global economy. Building on the successes of the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has saved more than 25 million lives from HIV/AIDS, and to address the growing challenges posed by health threats, the State Department established the Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy in August 2023.”

“Building on decades of leadership on global health within the State Department, the Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy’s mission is to lead U.S. diplomatic engagement, help coordinate foreign assistance, and promote international cooperation against health threats, integrating global health security as a core component of national security and foreign policy. The bureau’s first ever five-year Strategy for 2024-2028 outlines the State Department’s role in ending HIV/AIDS as a public health threat and advancing global health security and pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response efforts for the U.S. government.”

“The goals of the Strategy are to:

End HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030
Catalyze the political will, financing, and leadership necessary to achieve heath security and address public health threats, including HIV/AIDS
Improve global multisectoral preparedness and response through diplomacy to protect against health security threats
Empower the diplomatic workforce to prioritize and integrate global health security as a key pillar of U.S. foreign policy.”

Read the strategy here.

“Chemical Weapons Policymakers Must Act to Balance the Prospects and Perils of AI”

Patrick Norén recently published this CBNW article covering a conference organized by the OPCW and Kingdom of Morocco focused on the role of AI in advancing implementation of the CWC. Norén covers general trends in speakers’ comments, the dual use nature of AI, challenges in legislation, regulation, and cooperation, and issues with misinformation and disinformation.

“MATCH 2.0 Enters Demonstration and Live Testing Phase”

From Stimson: “Behind every chemical transfer is a story, and too often, that story includes discrepancies in reported data. The Stimson Center’s MATCH project team has completed development of an updated DLT prototype and is demonstrating to CWC National Authorities and other stakeholders how it traces these narratives and creates a clear, immutable record of each transaction, aligning records of national authorities and industry while maintaining data confidentiality, reducing risks of misreporting, and enhancing nonproliferation by enabling faster reconciliation of discrepancies in the annual reporting of chemicals covered by the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).”

Read more here.

“THE NEXUS BETWEEN SCIENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY IN CANADA: THE CASE OF THE NATIONAL MICROBIOLOGY LABORATORY IN WINNIPEG”

The Canadian House of Commons’ Special Committee on the Canada-People’s Republic of China Relationship recently released this interim report. Among other things, the report reveals that CSIS “issued a direct and unheeded warning to senior health officials in August 2018, raising concerns about “insider threat activities” linked to Dr. Xiangguo Qiu and her husband, Keding Cheng.” The report explains in its conclusion “The events at the Winnipeg NML facility revealed, as outlined in this report, the fundamentally open and collaborative nature of Canadian scientific research as a means of contributing to the common good, on the one hand, and, on the other, the need for a cultural shift within the scientific field in terms of its vigilance over national security risks and the need to reconsider how we collaborate with entities or states that may not share the same interests as Canada. For example, with regard to the PRC, Mr. Vigneault said that “[i]t is sometimes in our own national interest to collaborate with Chinese entities, but we need to do it with our eyes wide open and make sure that we protect our own base.”’

Read Sam Cooper’s coverage of this report in The Bureau here.

NEW: Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools

From NTI: “Join us for a virtual webinar releasing the findings of NTI | bio’s new report, Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools, followed by a moderated discussion and Q+A with distinguished guest Claire Quereshi.”

“Artificial intelligence (AI) promises to revolutionize not only aspects of daily life but cutting-edge scientific research and development. Within the life sciences, AI biodesign tools (BDTs) have improved significantly in their ability to design biological molecules and make predictions about living systems, displaying potential for beneficial applications and posing significant potential risks if misused.”

“Authors Sarah R. Carter, Ph.D., Nicole E. Wheeler, Ph.D., Christopher R. Isaac, M.Sc., and Jaime M. Yassif, Ph.D. conducted interviews with experts with deep experience creating bioinformatic tools, developing BDTs, and crafting biosecurity policies. The report outlines several proposed measures that could be deployed to design governance approaches to reduce biological risks without unduly hindering scientific advances.”

This event will take place virtually on November 14 at 11 am ET. Learn more and register here.

NEW: A Year-End Review, Recapping Global AI Governance Efforts

From CSET: “This time last year seemed to herald a landmark period in establishing AI governance regimes around the world. After ChatGPT and other AI tools burst onto the scene, U.S. policymakers issued new executive orders, hosted hearings and high-profile learning sessions, and developed new frameworks and standards to support the safe and secure development of AI. Elsewhere, the European Union worked to finalize its AI Act, and China announced its Global AI Governance Initiative. One year later, where do the promises and commitments to govern AI stand?”

“Join us on November 14, as we look back on the last year of global AI governance efforts and evaluate what progress has been made, what work remains to be done, and what the actions of global partners and competitors alike mean for U.S. strategy going forward. CSET Associate Director of Analysis Owen J. Daniels will moderate a conversation with CSET researchers Mia Hoffmann, Mina Narayanan, and Cole McFaul as we survey governance developments around the world over the past year. The moderated discussion will be followed by audience Q&A.”

This event will take place at 1 pm ET on November 14. Learn more and RSVP here.

NEW: Enhancing the Resilience of Healthcare and Public Health Critical Infrastructure

This event will take place in DC on December 9 and 10. Register here.

NEW: Resilience in the Face of Global Risks

“The symposium will dive into the progress our communities have made—and how our passionate communities can better work together to help shape the future.”

RSVP here.

Preparing for the Next Outbreak: Designing Closer Collaboration between Healthcare and Public Health to Deploy Pathogen-Agnostic Testing as an Early Warning System

From PNNL: “Please join us in welcoming Dr. Adi V. Gundlapalli, Senior Advisor for Data Readiness and Response in the Office of Public Health Data, Surveillance, and Technology at the CDC for his talk titled “Preparing for the Next Outbreak: Designing Closer Collaboration between Healthcare and Public Health to Deploy Pathogen-Agnostic Testing as an Early Warning System”. This webinar will take place Wednesday, November 13th, at noon PT.”

Learn more and register here.

Developing Guardrails for AI Biodesign Tools

This virtual event will take place on November 14 at 11 am EST. Learn more and register here.

13th Annual Jonathan Tucker Symposium

“The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies cordially invites you to the 13th annual Jonathan Tucker Symposium on chemical and biological weapons issues on November 13th and 14th, 2024.”

Among this year’s speakers are Dr. Yong-Bee Lim, an alumnus of the Biodefense PhD Program and Deputy Director of the Converging Risks Lab and Biosecurity Projects Manager at the Council on Strategic Risks, who will give a talk titled “Technology Democratization and its Implications for CBW Safety and Security: Lessons Learned from Engagement with Non-Traditional Communities.”

Learn more and register here.

One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 Book Launch

2024 CBD S&T Conference

“The 2024 CBD S&T Conference will be held at the Broward County Convention Center, December 2–5, 2024.”

Learn more and register here.

“In addition to how we enhance national public health capacity, what are the important lessons we can learn from the pandemic from national security and biosecurity perspectives?”

This event will take place in-person and over livestream on December 4 from 2-4 pm AEDT. Learn more and register here.

US AI Safety Institute Issues RFI on Responsible Development of Chem-Bio Models

“Respondents are encouraged to provide concrete examples, best practices, case studies, and actionable recommendations where possible. The full RFI can be found here.”

“The comment period is now open and will close on December 3, 2024, at 11:59PM Eastern Time. Comments can be submitted online at www.regulations.gov, under docket no. 240920-0247.”

Pandora Report 11.1.2024

November 1, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report discusses the WHO’s activation of the Global Health Emergency Corps, updates on H5N1 in the United States, a reported Lassa fever death in Iowa, and USAID’s recently-launched Strengthening Infectious Disease Detection Systems project.

WHO, Partners Activate Global Health Emergency Corps in Response to Mpox Outbreaks

The WHO and partners, in collaboration with Member States, announced this week the activation of the Global Health Emergency Corps (GHEC) for the first time in response to mpox outbreaks in several countries. The GHEC is a group of professionals whose goal is to strengthen response to health emergencies. It also functions as a collaboration platform for countries and emergency health networks. The WHO explained in a press release that, “In collaboration with the International Association of National Public Health Institutes, GHEC is assessing the emergency workforce capacities in 8 countries affected by the mpox outbreak, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi, the two most affected countries. The assessment has so far identified 22 areas that need strengthening, including epidemiology and surveillance, laboratory capacities, infection prevention and control, risk communication and community engagement. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Health Cluster partners have joined in strengthening the coordination set up by the Ministry of Health under the leadership of the public health emergency operations centre.”

H5N1 Updates

US Detects H5N1 in Backyard Swine

H5N1 infection in a pig on an Oregon backyard farm was confirmed this week, the US Department of Agriculture announced on Wednesday. The farm does have a mix of poultry and livestock, so the infected pig did share an environment with poultry, including water sources, housing, and equipment. Because the detection was found on a small farm, the USDA says risk to the nation’s pork supply and to the general public is low.

In addition to concerns about impact on farming and the food supply, this is concerning because pigs can be a mixing vessel for zoonotic and human influenza viruses as they are susceptible to avian, swine, and human influenza A viruses (IAV). Notably, the novel IAV that caused the 2009 H1N1 pandemic included two separate segments from the H1N1 swine virus lineage. However, it is unknown whether the animal had a systemic infection or if contamination caused positive nasal swab results.

NIAID: “Bovine H5N1 Influenza from Infected Worker Transmissible and Lethal in Animal Models”

“A highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus, isolated from the eye of a farm worker who became infected through contact with dairy cows, was lethal in mice and ferrets infected in a high-containment laboratory environment, according to a new study in Nature. The study investigators also found that the virus isolated from the worker, who experienced mild inflammation of the cornea (conjunctivitis), could be transmitted through the air between separated ferrets and might be capable of binding to and replicating in human respiratory tract cells.”

Read more here.

“Was Stone Age Scandinavia Struck by Plague?”

In this New York Times article, Franz Lidz discusses recent genetics research that points to a plague outbreak in Scandinavia more than 5,000 years ago, driving the Neolithic decline. Lidz explains in part, “A new genomic study published in July in the journal Nature makes the case for another candidate, which had been found in people living at the time but was never thought to have been widespread: the plague…Until now, it was unclear how virulent the Neolithic plague was within a human population. “There is a hypothesis that the oldest plague bacterium lacked epidemic potential,” said Dr. Seersholm, the lead author of the paper. “That hypothesis no longer holds.”’

ICYMI-“Lessons from History: A Conversation with Author John M. Barry”

“On Monday, October 28, a public seminar at the Brown University School of Public Health explored the history of pandemics and the lessons that apply to us today. The event featured a discussion with Brown alumnus John M. Barry ’68, author of The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History, which received the Outstanding Book on Science and Medicine for 2004 by the National Academies of Sciences.”

Pandora Report 10.25.2024

October 25, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

Happy almost Halloween! This week’s Pandora Report includes news from the Biodefense Graduate Program and discussion of the Biden administration’s latest National Security Memorandum, a new multilateral effort from the US, Canada, and Mexico to improve regional health security, the WHO’s praise for Rwanda’s swift and effective Marburg response, and more.

Upcoming Virtual Information Sessions on the Biodefense Graduate Program

If you are interested in a career in biodefense or global health security or want to develop the knowledge and skills necessary to work at the nexus of health, science, and security, find out what the Schar School of Policy and Government has to offer.

The Schar School PhD programs will be holding a virtual open house on Wednesday, October 30 from 6-7:30 PM. Please join Dr. Gregory Koblentz, director of the Biodefense Graduate Program, to learn more about the Biodefense PhD program and ask any questions you may have. Register here.

GMU Biodefense Students Tour Mason’s Biomedical Research Laboratory

Last week twelve Biodefense students had the opportunity to visit George Mason’s 52,000 square-foot Biomedical Research Laboratory (BRL) located on the SciTech campus in Manassas, Virginia. The BRL was inactive after being decontaminated for annual maintenance . The tour, led by the BRL’s Director of Research Operations, Rachel Pepin, provided students with a firsthand look at Mason’s Biosafety Level 3 (BSL-3) and supporting Biosafety Level 2 (BSL-2) labs. Among the many highlights was the BRL’s autoclaves and gloveboxes, which left students impressed.

The BRL is one of 12 Regional Biocontainment Labs in the United States funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases NIAID. Constructed in 2010, it became an active “hot” lab in 2012. Fifteen Mason faculty members and thirty students at any time work within the facility on research pertaining to a variety of infectious diseases, new vaccines, diagnostics, and therapeutics. The stated mission of Mason’s BRL is to 1) advance pathogen biology, 2) train the future workforce to safely handle infectious agents and conduct innovative research in BSL-3 environments, 3) evaluate diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines, and 4) serve as a resource in the event of a bioterrorism or infectious disease emergency. Overall, students gained an appreciation for the critical work and numerous safety controls in George Mason’s BSL-3 laboratory.

This write up was written by Biodefense MS Student Will MacDonald.

OPCW Workshop on Legislative and Regulatory Frameworks for Chemical Security
On October 21-22, 2024, Dr. Gregory Koblentz, director of the Biodefense Graduate Program, attended a meeting of chemical security experts sponsored by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to discuss best practices for establishing legislative frameworks for chemical security. According to INTERPOL, from the records of 4,100 captured ISIS members, 109 of them have a background related to chemistry, science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. Meanwhile, across the word, the chemical industry and trade are rapidly growing, increasing the risk of toxic chemicals being misused, especially by non-state actors. Many countries are therefore seeking to strengthen their legal and regulatory regimes to address risks such as attacks on chemical facilities, the theft of toxic chemicals, or their release with malicious intent. Initial take-aways from the meeting included a recognition that there is an urgent need for robust national legislative frameworks for chemical security in many countries, that national threat assessments and risk analyses should be the basis for identifying legislative needs, and best practices are most useful if they can be adapted to country-specific contexts and resource setting. This meeting of an international group of chemical security experts kicks off a longer-term discussion on best practices for establishing legislative frameworks for chemical security sponsored by the Implementation Support Branch of the International Cooperation and Assistance Division at OPCW.
A Risky Review of Research
On September 25, 2024, Senator Rand Paul introduced a revised version of the Risky Research Review Act (S. 4667) which was voted out of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee by a vote of 8-1. In a recent OpEd in StatNews, Gregory Koblentz, director of the Biodefense Graduate Program, and David Gillum and Rebecca Moritz, past presidents of the American Biosafety Association (ABSA) wrote of the original bill: “this legislation threatens to cast a shadow over the future of life sciences research and slow it down.” While this revised bill contains some positive changes, it remains deeply flawed and does not represent a viable solution to the challenges posed by dual-use research. You can read their analysis of the good, the bad, and the ugly of the revised Risky Research Review Act here.
Russia Expanding Secret BSL-4 Lab at Sergiev Posad
The Washington Post has identified new construction activity at Sergiev Posad-6, part of the former Soviet and current Russian biological weapons program, consistent with the building of additional high containment laboratories, including BSL-4 lab suites. The construction started in 2022, shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which was accompanied by unfounded allegations that Ukraine was developing biological weapons with the help of the United States and other NATO countries. Dr. Gregory Koblentz, director of the Biodefense Graduate Program, is quoted in the article as saying, “I would not be surprised if some influential segment of the Russian national security community has drunk the Kool-Aid and really believes that the United States really is developing biological weapons.” Satellite imagery obtained and analyzed by the Washington Post has identified the construction of “10 new buildings, totaling more than 250,000 square feet, with several of them bearing hallmarks of biological labs designed to handle extremely dangerous pathogens.” The Global BioLabs Initiative identified Sergiev Posad-6 as having a BSL-4 lab in 2021. The existence of a BSL-4 lab at this site was confirmed by a 2017 scientific article co-authored by a researcher at the 48^th Central Research Institute of the Ministry of Defense at Sergiev Posad. Russia has not declared the existence of a BSL-4 lab at this site on Form A of the confidence building measures that it submits to the Biological Weapons Convention.

White House Releases New National Security Memorandum on Advancing AI Leadership

The Biden administration issued this week the first-ever National Security Memorandum (MSM) on AI. The NSM direct the federal government to take steps to 1) “ensure that the United States leads the world’s development of safe, secure, and trustworthy AI,” 2) “harness cutting-edge AI technologies to advance the U.S. Government’s national security mission,” and 3) “advance international consensus and governance around AI.”

The NSM directives are focused on actions to improve chip supply chain security and diversity, making collection on competitors’ operations against the US AI sector a top-tier intelligence priority, formally designating the AI Safety Institute, doubling down on the National AI Research Resource, directing “the National Economic Council to coordinate an economic assessment of the relative competitive advantage of the United States private sector AI ecosystem,” and more.

Among its other measures, the NSM also directs the creation of a Framework to Advance AI Governance and Risk Management in National Security, which was published alongside the NSM. This framework and any successor document will specify that each covered agency has a chief AI officer and guidance boards, offer guidance on AI activities that pose “unacceptable levels of risk and that shall be prohibited,” and more.

A fact sheet for the new NSM is available here.

US, Canada, and Mexico Announce Efforts to Improve Regional Health Security

This week, the US Departments of Health and Human Services, State, Agriculture, and Homeland Security, along with their counterparts in Canada and Mexico made good on commitments made at the 2021 and 2023 North American Leaders’ Summits in releasing the North American Preparedness for Animal and Human Pandemics Initiative (NAPAHPI). NAPAHPI is “…a flexible, scalable, and cross-sectoral platform to strengthen regional capacities for prevention, preparedness, and response to a broad range of health security threats that builds on lessons learned from COVID-19 and other health security events in the last decade. It is based on a long-standing trilateral collaboration under the 2007 North American Plan for Avian and Pandemic Influenza and the 2012 North American Plan for Animal and Pandemic Influenza. This initiative recognizes that the high degree of interconnectedness among our three countries of our critical infrastructure, supply chains, and societies means that disruptions affecting one country often impact the others. Only by working together can we protect the health security of our region.”

Learn more here.
Egypt Declared Malaria Free

Egypt was officially certified malaria-free by the World Health Organization this week. Following Morocco and the UAE, Egypt is just the third country in the WHO’s Eastern Mediterranean region to receive this certification. Globally, 44 countries and one territory currently have this designation.

“This certification of Egypt as malaria-free is truly historic, and a testament to the commitment of the people and government of Egypt to rid themselves of this ancient scourge,” said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in a statement. “I congratulate Egypt on this achievement, which is an inspiration to other countries in the region, and shows what’s possible with the right resources and the right tools.”

WHO Praises Rwanda’s Marburg Response

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus praised Rwanda’s response to its Marburg virus outbreak, noting their success in treating patients infected with this especially deadly disease. As of earlier this week, Rwanda has made it a full week with no new cases, and its total number of patients still in treatment is down to just one. “Leadership from the highest levels of government is essential in any outbreak response, and that’s what we see here in Rwanda,” Tedros said during the press briefing. The Director-General also noted that multiple patients experiencing multiple organ failure were put on life support, intubated, and eventually extubated. “We believe this is the first time patients with Marburg virus have been extubated in Africa. These patients would have died in previous outbreaks,” Tedros explained.

Burgers, Deli Meat, and Waffles-Oh My! US Responding to E. Coli and Listeria Outbreaks

It has been a rough couple of weeks for many major food suppliers in the United States amid headlines about recalls and reports of multiple cases of E. coli and listeria across the country. McDonald’s, KFC, Burger King, and other restaurant chains have pulled onions from their menus following an outbreak of E. coli traced back to McDonald’s Quarter Pounders. The CDC announced this week it is investigating 49 cases linked to “slivered onions used in the Quarter Pounder and sourced by a single supplier than serves three distribution centers.” One person is dead and ten more have been hospitalized. The supplier, Taylor Farms, has issued a recall on all of its peeled, diced, and whole peeled yellow onion packs due to potential contamination.

This comes amid multiple listeria outbreaks affecting several kinds of products, including deli meat, frozen waffles and pancakes, and even salmon. While these recalls are certainly nothing to ignore, they might not necessarily be happening more frequently than before as some have suggested. Dr. Céline Gounder, CBS News medical contributor and editor-at-large for public health at KFF Health News, told CBS this week that “Every step of food processing, there’s the opportunity for contamination. That’s number one. Consumers want ready-to-eat food, so of course, they’re more processed as a result.” She continued, saying “We have better tests. So it used to be we might not have been aware or known what made you sick. Now we can actually test, detect and tell you what made you sick.”

“Assessing the Burden of and Potential Strategies to Address Antimicrobial Resistance”

From NASEM: “Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is linked to millions of deaths globally each year. As an evolving public health threat, there is a need to further develop methods to quantify AMR’s burden within medical practice and other sectors like food production. The National Academies Forum on Microbial Threats hosted a public workshop in March 2024 to explore the burden of AMR and discuss clinical, scientific, and policy strategies for addressing the growing AMR health threat across sectors.”

“This proceedings highlights the presentations and discussions that occurred at the workshop.”

“The Changing Face of Pandemic Risk: 2024 Report”

From GPMB: “The 21st century has seen a significant rise in global health threats. Epidemics and pandemics are now a constant danger rather than rare events. The 2024 GPMB report, The changing face of pandemic risk, is a call to action for global leaders, policy-makers, health professionals, and communities to build a safer, more resilient future. It outlines the key drivers of pandemic risk and provides a roadmap for strengthening our defences.”

“Mpox: Neglect Has Led to a More Dangerous Virus Now Spreading Across Borders, Harming and Killing People. Leaders Must Take Action to Stop Mpox Now”

McNab et al. recently published this opinion article in PLOS Global Public Health, writing in part “In other words, mpox is an ever-growing regional health crisis in Africa, and without urgent action to stop the epidemics when and where they occur, it will continue to spread across borders and continents. The few tools we have that could help to stop the outbreaks have yet to become adequately available in the most affected low-income countries where they are urgently required, as is financing to support the public health response. Mpox cannot be allowed to continue spreading widely across the African continent or anywhere. The world cannot continue to simply ‘learn’, but not apply the costly lessons of neglecting disease outbreaks.”

“Are We Ready For A Bird Flu Vaccination Campaign?”

Ram Koppaka and Richard Hughes IV discuss the possibility of H5N1 human transmission and a hypothetical mass vaccination program against this virus in this piece for Health Affairs. They write in their conclusion, “The most recent pandemic clearly demonstrated the inadequacy of our existing level of vaccine preparedness. So far, we have failed to seize this moment and put in place the infrastructure to support immunization of both children and adults. Worse still, it indicates a failure to learn some of the pandemic’s hardest lessons. As a result, we are destined to once again endure the consequences, knowing that they had been largely avoidable…Or we can do it differently this time. We can act now to be truly ready and prepared to mount a mass vaccination campaign against the next pandemic threat—whenever it comes. We have risen to the occasion before, and we can do it again.”

“COVID, Mpox, Cholera: Is the World Prepared for Another Pandemic?”

Faras Ghani discusses recent outbreaks and infectious disease developments, alongside analysis of global lack of adequate access to essential healthcare services and an interview with Dr. Ahmed Ogwell, Vice President of Global Health Strategy at the UN Foundation, in this piece for Al Jazeera.

“Inside the Bungled Bird Flu Response, Where Profits Collide With Public Health”

Katherine Eban discusses the USDA’s action or lack thereof in responding to H5N1 cases in Texas dairy cattle in this Vanity Fair article, writing in her summary “When dairy cows in Texas began falling ill with H5N1, alarmed veterinarians expected a fierce response to contain an outbreak with pandemic-sparking potential. Then politics—and, critics say, a key agency’s mandate to protect dairy-industry revenues—intervened.”

“Combining AI Breakthroughs and Better Policy to Defeat Superbugs”

Akhila Kosaraju discusses the transformative opportunity AI poses in addressing AMR in this piece for the Stanford Social Innovation Review: “Superbugs may have met their match in generative AI, but to fully tackle the crisis of antimicrobial resistance, policy makers need to find new ways to help scientists and researchers overcome long-standing obstacles and revitalize a broken antibiotic market.”

“NTI | Bio Champions Effort to Enhance Transparency to Strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention”

From NTI: “From September 30 to October 2, 2024, NTI | bio convened more than 30 experts for a workshop on enhancing transparency for bioscience research and development and bolstering confidence in compliance with the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). Held in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, the workshop gathered an international group of participants from 15 countries spread across five continents with expertise in biosecurity and biotechnology governance and international security, as well as previous experience working to establish a verification mechanism for the BWC and involvement in ongoing discussions to strengthen the Convention.”

“The meeting updated existing concepts and generated new ideas about options to enhance transparency in regard to BWC compliance. NTI helped frame these discussions by tabling a concept paper on this topic, and the group discussed approaches to advance these goals, including through scientific and technical measures for data collection and analysis, procedural approaches, and institutional structures to house such efforts. Dozens of approaches were discussed during the meeting which will inform NTI’s continued efforts to highlight and explore promising opportunities to further advance this work.”

Read more here.

“Preparing for Ecological Disruption: A Strategic Foresight Approach to Ecological Security”

Lily Boland recently authored this report for the Council on Strategic Risks: “This report leverages insights gained from the use of strategic foresight as an approach for better anticipating how risks to global security are heightened by ecological disruption. It offers a range of use-cases for applying the foresight toolkit to the field of ecological security and to establish a knowledge base to assist practitioners, governments, and institutions in enhancing their anticipatory decision-making and planning processes for addressing the security ramifications of large-scale destabilization and decline of the biosphere and ecosystems.”

“How Zombies and Vampires Help Me Grapple with Disaster”

Neil Vora, a physician who has served in the Epidemic Intelligence Service and now treats TB patients and works with Conservation International, discusses what many in this field know all too well-an obsession with works of horror, especially those about contagions and disasters. Vora explains in part, “To help manage my anxieties about the fate of the world, I often turn to scary stories about contagions and other doomsday scenarios. This may seem counterintuitive, but I find the horror genre to be a perfect sandbox to explore pressing societal problems without real-world repercussions. Horror allows me to navigate my fears to their extremes from the comforts of my living room.”

However, the author also cautions, “But while fictionalized catastrophes help me grapple with my worst fears, I’ve also come to realize that consuming them without a critical eye can lead to a paralyzing level of despair—a luxury we can’t afford at this pivotal moment in history.”

While you’re at it, check out this episode of the Poisons and Pestilence podcast guest starring Biodefense PhD Program alumna and faculty member Saskia Popescu reviewing the films, Contagion and Outbreak, and read about her intro to the field at just 9-years-old via Richard Preston’s book, The Hot Zone.

NEW: Vision for Health Forum

Panel Discussion
Moderator:
M. Shafeeq Ahmed, M.D., MBA, F.A.C.O.G
President, Johns Hopkins Howard County Medical Center

Topic: Partnership between JHHCMC and APL
Jeanette Nazarian, M.D., Vice President, Medical Affairs and Chief Medical Officer- Johns Hopkins Howard County Medical Center

This event will take place at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory on November 4 at 4:30 pm EST. Learn more here.

The Advancing Threat Agnostic Biodefense Webinar Series

From PNNL: “Please join us in welcoming Drs. Matthew Kasper and Lindsay Morton from the Department of Defense (DoD) Global Emerging Infections Surveillance (GEIS) program for their talk titled “Challenges and Opportunities in Pathogen Agnostic Sequencing for Public Health Surveillance: Lessons Learned From the Global Emerging Infections Surveillance Program.” This webinar will take place Tuesday, October 29th, at noon PT.”

Learn more and register here.

13th Annual Jonathan Tucker Symposium

Learn more and register here.

One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 Book Launch

2024 CBD S&T Conference

“The 2024 CBD S&T Conference will be held at the Broward County Convention Center, December 2–5, 2024.”

Learn more and register here.

BID2025 Stakeholder Input Request
“From BARDA: We are excited to host our next BARDA Industry Day (BID) conference on June 30 – July 1, 2025, in Washington, D.C.! BID2025 will delve into the critical intersection of health security and sustainability with experts from various sectors to discuss cutting-edge medical countermeasure (MCM) innovations and strategies.”

“We want to make sure that the event reflects the interests of our attendees. Your feedback will help us curate sessions, speakers, and topics that are relevant and engaging for you. This short questionnaire should take no more than three minutes to complete. Please share your thoughts on what you would like to see at the conference by October 30, 2024.“

Share thoughts here.

US AI Safety Institute Issues RFI on Responsible Development of Chem-Bio Models

“Respondents are encouraged to provide concrete examples, best practices, case studies, and actionable recommendations where possible. The full RFI can be found here.”

“The comment period is now open and will close on December 3, 2024, at 11:59PM Eastern Time. Comments can be submitted online at www.regulations.gov, under docket no. 240920-0247.”

Pandora Report 10.19.2024

October 19, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report covers updates from the Biodefense Graduate Program, a new biosecurity and biosafety declaration from ASEAN leadership, the United States’ IV fluid shortage, new publications and upcoming events, and more.

Upcoming Virtual Information Sessions on the Biodefense Graduate Program

Biodefense MS Grads Starts at National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology as Policy Advisor

Olivia Parker, a recent graduate of the Biodefense MS program, recently joined the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology (NSCEB) as a policy advisor. NSCEB is a legislative branch advisory entity charged with conducting a thorough review of how advancements in emerging biotechnology and related technologies will shape current and future activities of the Department of Defense. To learn more about NSCEB, visit their website here: https://www.biotech.senate.gov.

Establishing a National Biosafety and Biosecurity Agency for the United States
Professor Gregory Koblentz, director of the Biodefense Graduate Program, along with co-authors David Gillum and Rebecca Moritz, past presidents of the American Biosafety Association (ABSA), have published an article proposing the establishment of an independent Federal agency to oversee a unified national biorisk management system in the United States called the National Biosafety and Biosecurity Agency (NBBA). The current fragmented regulatory landscape needs to be refocused to address the complexities of modern biological research, including risks associated with accidental, inadvertent, and deliberate biological incidents. The NBBA would consolidate various regulatory functions, streamline processes, and enhance oversight. This oversight would encompass life sciences research in the United States, regardless of the source of funding or level of classification. The agency could also contribute to the bioeconomy by streamlining requirements to safeguard public health and the environment while fostering scientific and commercial progress. The proposed agency would govern high-risk biological pathogens, manage the Federal Select Agent Program, enforce policies related to dual use research of concern, pathogens with enhanced pandemic potential, and nucleic acid synthesis screening, administer regulations on the use and care of laboratory animals, as well as regulate other relevant biosafety and biosecurity activities. The goal would be to provide one-stop shopping for the biomedical research and biotechnology sectors subject to oversight by the Federal government. To ensure leadership in global biosafety and biosecurity, the agency’s mission would include international collaboration, applied research, education, workforce development, and coordination with national security initiatives. Creating an agency like the NBBA will be politically challenging but presenting a comprehensive vision and engaging stakeholders early and frequently, and being transparent in the process, will be essential for garnering support. Creating a unified biosafety and biosecurity governance system in the United States will ensure the safe and secure advancement of biological research while sustaining innovation and maintaining international competitiveness. The article is open access and can be downloaded here.

George Mason Scientist Secures $1.4 Million from DTRA to Study Viruses’ Impacts on Organ Health

George Mason University researcher Aarthi Narayanan recently secured a $1.4M grant from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) to investigate how an infection spreads between organs, and how a therapeutic will impact connected organs. The work will initially focus on mosquito-transmitted viruses while Narayanan hopes to expand the implications from these studies to other human disease states. Read more here.

ASEAN Leaders Make Declaration on Strengthening Regional Biosafety and Biosecurity

Leaders of the nations comprising the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) made a declaration on biosafety and security earlier this month during the 44th and 45th ASEAN Summits in Vientiane, Lao PDR. Their declaration includes an agreement to strengthen biosafety and biosecurity in the region by committing to strengthening multi-sectoral and multi-stakeholder coordination at the national level on these issues, establishing the ASEAN Biosafety and Biosecurity Network, establishing or strengthening relevant national legal frameworks, upholding commitments around responsible and ethical research using high-risk pathogens and toxins and related data to prevent DURC issues, enhancing protocols and procedures for the safe storage and transport of high-risk pathogens and toxins, ensuring the provision of necessary relevant human resources, supporting efforts to develop sustainable lab infrastructure, and tasking ASEAN Health Ministers to cooperate with relevant ministries to begin consultation, coordinate, and monitor efforts to meet the declaration’s deliverables.

Amid IV Fluid Shortage, Biden Administration Invokes Defense Production Action

The Biden administration told news outlets this week that it has invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA) in order to quicken the reconstruction of a Baxter facility in North Cove, North Carolina that was heavily damaged by Hurricane Helene. The plant was responsible for about 60% of the nation’s IV solutions, so the damage done to it by the storm has left many hospitals postponing surgeries and other procedures. Several products are affected, including multiple concentrations of dextrose IV solution, lactated ringers IV solution, peritoneal dialysis solution, sodium chloride 0.9% IV solution and for irrigation, and sterile water for injection and irrigation.

The DPA was passed in response to the Korean War and is historically based on the War Powers Acts of World War II. Over the years, Congress has expanded the term “national defense” as defined in the DPA so its scope includes things like enhancing and supporting “domestic preparedness, response, and recovery from natural hazards, terrorist attacks, and other national emergencies.” The DPA can be used to compel companies to prioritize government contracts and to help the federal government incentivize expansion of productive capacity and supply. The DPA was similarly invoked by both the Trump and Biden administrations in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Baxter said this week that 450 truckloads of undamaged products were removed from the site and that it is working with seven of its plants around the world to help address the shortage. The company is working with the FDA to import nearly 18,000 tons of product from Europe and Asia through the end of the year. Shipments from Baxter plants in Mexico and Spain began arriving last week, and the FDA has already authorized temporary importation from five sites in Canada, China, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. The company is also looking into other strategies, such as expiration date extension requests.

While this recent escalation of IV solution shortage is concerning, it is part of a broader problem that has existed in the US for years. Many of the products listed above were already in shortage prior to Hurricane Helene damaging the North Cove facility. For example, sterile water for injection was placed on the FDA shortage list in November of 2021, and multiple types of dextrose IV solution were added in early 2022. Perhaps most shockingly, saline solution has been on the list since June of 2018.

The reason the US has been grappling with this shortage for years, unsurprisingly, comes down to their lack of profitability. There is a high barrier to entry in that companies must invest substantial time and money in meeting regulatory requirements and setting up a manufacturing facility. At the same time, they are pressured to keep the prices of these products low. There are also issues with managing storage and transportation of these products, as a single bag of saline is about a foot long and weighs more than two pounds. Maintaining the sterility needed to safely make these products further complicates matters as well. Erin Fox, Senior Pharmacy Director at the University of Utah Health, told NBC that “These are life-saving products, but at the same times these are absolutely treated as kind of commodities.”

This situation is mirrored in an even more threatening issue-the dearth of antibiotic research amid rising antimicrobial resistance. While the WHO firmly warned last year that “We have arrived in the post-antibiotic era,” research and development of new antibiotics are still falling flat. Similarly, much of the issue comes down to reliance on private companies for innovations when those companies no longer have enough incentive to try and bring new antibiotics to market. By the 1980s, pharmaceutical companies knew they were unlikely to develop broad-spectrum antibiotics, and it is not very profitable to treat specific types of infections. This hurt private sector research greatly and, by 2021, just four major US pharmaceutical companies had dedicated antibiotic divisions. The FDA and its EU equivalent, the European Medicines Agency, have approved just 12 new antibiotics since 2017, 10 of which were similar to existing drugs.

There are some measures in work to help address this issue, including ARPA-H’s recently announced Defeating Antibiotic Resistance through Transformative Solutions (DARTS) project. Another example is the proposed Pioneering Antimicrobial Subscriptions to End Upsurging Resistance Act, or PASTEUR Act. The bipartisan bill failed to pass the Senate in 2021, but a revamped version (albeit with less funding) was introduced last year. The bill calls for the creation of a Committee on Critical Need Antimicrobials, requirements for HHS to award grants that support appropriate stewardship of antimicrobial drugs, and authorization of HHS to enter into subscription contracts for critical-need antimicrobial drugs.

No one potential law will address the lack of antibiotic research in the US, let alone the broader challenge of AMR and superbugs. Similarly, using the DPA once to help hasten the rebuilding of the North Cove Baxter facility will not get the country completely out of trouble in maintaining adequate IV solution supply. These kinds of challenges are long games that are only going to get worse amid economic and supply chain challenges, in addition to problems like climate change. Addressing these kinds of problems requires long-term thinking and sustained funding, rather than relying on reacting to issues as they worsen.

“Public Health Departments Face a Post-COVID Funding Crash”

Jazmin Orozco Rodriguez tackles the newest iteration of the public health boom-and-bust funding cycle in this article for KFF Health News: “But public health leaders quickly identified a familiar boom-and-bust funding cycle as they warned about an incoming fiscal cliff once the federal grants sunset. Now, more than a year since the federal Department of Health and Human Services declared the end of the coronavirus emergency, states — such as Montana, California and Washington — face tough decisions about laying off workers and limiting public health services…Public health experts warn that losing staff who perform functions like disease investigation, immunization, family planning, restaurant inspection and more could send communities into crisis.”

“Mitigating Risks from Gene Editing and Synthetic Biology: Global Governance Priorities”

Stewart Patrick and Josie Barton authored this report for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “Rapid advances in bioscience and bioengineering hold immense promise for human betterment. But as these disruptive technologies become more widely distributed, their inherently dual-use nature and susceptibility to unintended consequences could create unprecedented dangers.”

“AI Scans RNA ‘Dark Matter’ and Uncovers 70,000 New Viruses”

Smriti Mallapaty breaks down recent AI-powered research in this article for Nature News, explaining in part “Researchers have used artificial intelligence (AI) to uncover 70,500 viruses previously unknown to science, many of them weird and nothing like known species. The RNA viruses were identified using metagenomics, in which scientists sample all the genomes present in the environment without having to culture individual viruses. The method shows the potential of AI to explore the ‘dark matter’ of the RNA virus universe.”

“Tackling AMR: A Call for Global Action to Preserve Medical Progress”

Paul Murray, CEO of Life and Health Reinsurance at Swiss Re, discusses AMR and compounding factors like climate change in this piece for the World Economic Forum, writing in part “More such efforts are needed. Ultimately, stewardship programmes that promote the appropriate use of antimicrobials will be critical to preserving the effectiveness of existing medications. In addition, renewed drug development efforts to invent novel antibiotics are necessary, with resistant species emerging more quickly after a new drug’s introduction.”

“The Changing Face of Pandemic Risk: 2024 Report”

From GPMB, this report is a “…call to action for global leaders, policy-makers, health professionals, and communities to build a safer, more resilient future. It outlines the key drivers of pandemic risk and provides a roadmap for strengthening our defences.”

“Emerging Trends in Chemical Weapons Usage in the Middle East”

Natasha Hall discusses multiple issues regarding CW in the Middle East in this CSIS Brief, including the international community’s failure to address the Assad regime’s use of these weapons, challenges in multipolarity, and how actors are most likely to challenge existing norms by escalating from using RCAs to TICs and PBAs while spreading disinformation and slowing evidence collection.

“Putin Ordered Novichok Attack, Double Agent Skripal Tells UK Inquiry”

This reporting from Reuters details Sergei Skripal’s statement to the public inquiry into the death of Dawn Sturgess, and the poisoning of Yulia and Sergei Skripal in addition to a police officer who responded to the incident. In it, Skripal says “I believe Putin makes all important decisions himself. I therefore think he must have at least given permission for the attack on Yulia and me.”

Read more here.

“Russia’s Chemical Weapons Lies”

John V. Parachini and Svitlana Slipchenko discuss Russia’s CW-focused disinformation in this piece for the National Interest, writing in part “State parties should demand that Russia stop weakening the global ban on chemical weapons use with its torrent of falsehoods about others, disclose its own secret chemical weapons activities, and lay out a plan for coming into compliance with an accord it helped negotiate.”

“Russia’s Latest Target in Africa: U.S.-Funded Anti-Malaria Programs”

The New York Times‘ Elian Peltier discusses Russia’s use of African influencers to discredit US-funded anti-malaria programs on the continent amid to help stoke distrust and fear of the West in this article: “Western-backed health initiatives in Africa are one of Russia’s latest targets, a scenario reminiscent of the Cold War, when the Soviet Union accused the United States of spreading AIDS on the continent. The State Department says that African Initiative, a news outlet backed by Russia’s intelligence services, has spun similar accounts, including “disinformation regarding an outbreak of a mosquito-borne viral disease.”’

“Fueling China’s Innovation: The Chinese Academy of Sciences and Its Role in the PRC’s S&T Ecosystem”

Cole McFaul, Hanna Dohmen, Sam Bresnick, and Emily S. Weinstein recently published this CSET Issue Brief: “The Chinese Academy of Sciences is among the most important S&T organizations in the world and plays a key role in advancing Beijing’s S&T objectives. This report provides an in-depth look into the organization and its various functions within China’s S&T ecosystem, including advancing S&T research, fostering the commercialization of critical and emerging technologies, and contributing to S&T policymaking.”

What We’re Listening To 🎧

The BWC Global Forum: Biotech, Biosecurity & Beyond, Episode 15-Open-Source Intelligence

This episode features Yong-Bee Lim, an alumnus of the Biodefense PhD Program and the current Deputy Director of the Converging Risks Lab and Biosecurity Projects Manager at the Council on Strategic Risks.

“In this episode, we discuss the availability and use of open-source data to monitor BWC-related activities. Dr. Lim is leading a study to identify tools, techniques, and sources to support the ability to identify, track, and evaluate biological activities using publicly available information. Open-source analysis of biological activities, facilities, programs, and capabilities has been revolutionized through the convergence of radically expanded public access to data previosuly only available to state-level intelligence agencies and the emergence of advanced analytic tools, such as machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI). These new capabilities potentially offer civil society experts—or state governments without advanced intelligence programs—the opportunity to identify trends and patterns in data that can provide insight into the nature of biological activities.”

New: 13th Annual Jonathan Tucker Symposium

Learn more and register here.

NEW: 2024 CBD S&T Conference

“The 2024 CBD S&T Conference will be held at the Broward County Convention Center, December 2–5, 2024.”

Learn more and register here.

Potential Research Priorities to Inform Readiness and Response to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1)

“The National Academies will host a 2-day virtual public workshop, October 22-23, to explore research priorities for the ongoing H5N1 outbreak in the U.S. Recognizing the interconnection between people, animals, and their shared environment, this workshop will take a One Health approach to bring together federal government agencies, the academic community, and the private sector, as well as other relevant stakeholders across the health, agriculture, and food safety sectors.”

“Workshop discussions will focus on basic science and research areas of concern and may help inform future research that could provide local, national, and global communities with information about virus transmission, mitigation of risks, and appropriate measures to prevent the spread of disease.”

Learn more and register here.

The Advancing Threat Agnostic Biodefense Webinar Series

Learn more and register here.

One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 Book Launch

NEW: BID2025 Stakeholder Input Request
“From BARDA: We are excited to host our next BARDA Industry Day (BID) conference on June 30 – July 1, 2025, in Washington, D.C.! BID2025 will delve into the critical intersection of health security and sustainability with experts from various sectors to discuss cutting-edge medical countermeasure (MCM) innovations and strategies.”

“We want to make sure that the event reflects the interests of our attendees. Your feedback will help us curate sessions, speakers, and topics that are relevant and engaging for you. This short questionnaire should take no more than three minutes to complete. Please share your thoughts on what you would like to see at the conference by October 30, 2024.“

Share thoughts here.

US AI Safety Institute Issues RFI on Responsible Development of Chem-Bio Models

“Respondents are encouraged to provide concrete examples, best practices, case studies, and actionable recommendations where possible. The full RFI can be found here.”

“The comment period is now open and will close on December 3, 2024, at 11:59PM Eastern Time. Comments can be submitted online at www.regulations.gov, under docket no. 240920-0247.”

ACHS Fellowship Program 2025

From the Asia Centre for Health Security: “The ACHS Fellowship Program aims to inspire and connect the next generation of biosecurity leaders and innovators.”

“Newly launched in 2025, ACHS Fellowship is a highly competitive, part-time program that provides an opportunity for talented graduate students and professionals to deepen their expertise, expand their network, and build their leadership skills through a series of training and project work coordinated by the Asia Centre for Health Security based at the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore (NUS).”

“This 12-month fellowship does not require relocation to Singapore and can be completed alongside full-time employment or an academic schedule.”

Learn more and apply here.

Pandora Report 10.11.2024

October 11, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report covers updates from ARPA-H, new UK guidance for use of nucleic acid synthesis technologies, the UK’s recently-announced sanctions on Russian troops and organizations for use of CW in Ukraine, and more.

Upcoming Virtual Information Sessions on the Biodefense Graduate Program

A virtual open house for the MS in Biodefense will be held online on Thursday, October 17, 7 to 8 p.m. ET . The Biodefense Program offers flexible part-time or full-time options that teach applicable, real-world skills for bridging the gap between science and policy. The online session will provide an overview of the program, as well as the application process, student experience and graduate outcomes. Register here.

ARPA-H Launches Predictive Drug Safety and Efficacy Model Program

The Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H), part of the Department of Health and Human Services, recently announced a new funding opportunity through its Computational ADME-Tox and Physiology Analysis for Safer Therapeutics (CATALYST) program. The program aims to create human physiology-based computer models to accurately predict safety and efficacy profiles for Investigational New Drug (IND) candidates.

The announcement explains “Through a forthcoming Innovative Solutions Opening (ISO) solicitation, CATALYST invites proposals across three technical areas: data discovery and deep learning methods for drug safety models, living systems tools for model development, and in silico models of human physiology. If successful, CATALYST will significantly improve drug safety testing in preclinical and clinical studies and create a drug development tools pipeline for use in regulatory science applications.”

Read more here.

UK Announces Sanctions on Russian Troops Using CW in Ukraine

The UK government announced this week that it has sanctioned Radiological, Chemical and Biological Defence Troops of the Russian Armed Forces and their leader, Igor Kirillov, following their use of chemical weapons in Ukraine. The announcement also described Kirillov as “a significant mouthpiece for Kremlin disinformation, spreading lies to mask Russia’s shameful and dangerous behaviour.” The UK also sanctioned two Russian MOD laboratories (the 27th Scientific Centre and the 33rd Central Scientific Research and Testing Institute) for the support they provided in developing and deploying the weapons.

UK Publishes Voluntary Guidance for Providers and Users of Synthetic Nucleic Acid

“The UK National Vision for Engineering Biology, published in December 2023, set out an ambition for the UK to be a world leader in responsible innovation in engineering biology. This Guidance delivers on that ambition by championing and enabling the legitimate use of nucleic acid synthesis technologies, whilst reducing the risks which could result from accidental or purposeful misuse.”

“The Guidance makes recommendations to UK providers and users of synthetic nucleic acid to promote screening practices. It supports the safe study or engineering of existing or novel biological systems to help unlock the exciting benefits of this technology in applications across healthcare, chemical and materials, low carbon fuels, and agriculture. Uptake of the Guidance will be reviewed to ensure that it is providing proportionate guardrails.”

Read Christopher East’s discussion of this guidance in this piece from the Council on Strategic Risks-“New “Gene Synthesis Screening Guidance” in the UK: A Positive Step Towards Responsible Innovation”

UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology Launches Regulation Innovation Office

The UK government also recently announced the creation of the Regulation Innovation Office, which aims to “reduce the burden of red tape and speed up access to new technologies that improve our daily lives – from AI in healthcare to emergency delivery drones”. The announcement explains that “The new Regulatory Innovation Office (RIO) will reduce the burden for businesses hoping to bring new products and services to the market in some of the UK’s fastest-growing sectors through innovations like –AI training software for surgeons to deliver more accurate surgical treatments for patients and drones which can improve business efficiency and quickly send critical deliveries to remote parts of the country.”

“To do so, it will support regulators to update regulation, speeding up approvals, and ensuring different regulatory bodies work together smoothly. It will work to continuously inform the government of regulatory barriers to innovation, set priorities for regulators which align with the government’s broader ambitions and support regulators to develop the capability they need to meet them and grow the economy.”

“National Security Debate on Global Health Enters a New Phase”

David P. Fidler discusses the debate about the expansion of the concept of national security and how global health fits into this in this piece for Think Global Health: “To date, the securitization of pandemics and climate change in U.S. policy has become orthodoxy but has failed, which raises questions about the value of national security arguments concerning global health problems. Geopolitical competition and polarized domestic politics are shrinking what national security means in U.S. policy, making national security claims about global health threats even more difficult to sustain.”

“Pathway to a Healthier America: A Blueprint for Strengthening Public Health for the Next Administration and Congress”

This report from Trust for America’s Health “…provides the Administration and Congress taking office in 2025 a policy roadmap for improving the nation’s health, economy, and national security.” It outlines several priorities, such as investing in public health infrastructure and workforce, improving health security threat readiness, and promoting health across the lifespan.

“Optimizing Federal, State, and Local Responses to Public Health Emergencies: Lessons from COVID Proceedings of a Workshop—in Brief”

From NASEM: The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Committee on Science, Technology, and Law is pleased to announce the release of the proceedings of its May 30-31, 2024 workshop, Optimizing Federal, State, and Local Response to Public Health Emergencies. The workshop, which was organized by a planning committee co-chaired by Georges Benjamin (American Public Health Association) and Erwin Chemerinsky (University of California, Berkeley School of Law), featured the following sessions: Optimizing Federal, State, and Local Public Health Preparedness, The COVID-19 Pandemic: What happened? What went right? What went wrong? –, Public Health Emergency Authorities: What we know about them and how did we experience them before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic?, Exploring Routes and Barriers to Effective Public Health Response Efforts During the COVID-19 Pandemic, Looking to the Future: Where do we go from here?, and Concluding Thoughts from Workshop Planning Committee.

“AI in Public Health: Gaps, Disparities, and Remarkable Potential”

Shi En Kim covers a panel-“Making AI a Lifesaver”-hosted by the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg Center in Washington DC in this article for Global Health Now, writing in part “The panelists broadly agreed that there needs to be more transparency in how AI is being used. For starters, noted Ehrenfeld, better visibility into AI will help flag flaws that lead to inequity as well as make AI a more effective tool for public health workers. Stuart noted the clear need for training on AI’s ethical issues and applications presents a big opportunity for schools of public health and medical schools.”

“Framework for Nucleic Acid Synthesis Screening”

The NSTC’s Fast Track Action Committee on Synthetic Nucleic Acid Procurement Screening recently released this framework: “This framework outlines a unified process for screening purchases of synthetic nucleic acids and benchtop nucleic acid synthesis equipment. While the framework will be incorporated into requirements for recipients of federal research funding, including through domestic and international funding documents, broader use of the framework is encouraged. This approach guides providers of synthetic nucleic acids (“Providers”) and manufacturers of benchtop nucleic acid synthesis equipment (“Manufacturers”) to screen purchase orders to identify sequences of concern (SOCs) and assess customer legitimacy.”

“A New Biosecurity Strategy for the World to Follow”

CSR’s Jackson du Pont discusses CEPI’s recently launched Biosecurity Strategy in this blog post, writing in part “On Wednesday, September 25th, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) launched its inaugural Biosecurity Strategy—an incredibly important contribution towards galvanizing efforts to advance global biosecurity prioritization and governance. It represents a significant step in strengthening biosecurity norms and should serve as a model for future efforts to increase investments in addressing biological risks in the safest, most responsible ways possible.”

DHS Releases 2025 Homeland Threat Assessment

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) recently released its Homeland Threat Assessment (HTA) for 2025. The HTA aims to “…inform both the public and the Department’s partners of the threats to public safety and security, in order to assist federal, state, and local partners in preparing, preventing, and responding to an ever-evolving threat environment.” This year’s HTA explains that the threat environment is expected to “remain high” in the coming year. Among other topics, the HTA also discusses the potential for CBRN attacks and nefarious use of emerging technologies:

“We expect predominantly aspirational and rudimentary interest in CBRN attacks will continue in 2025. Among foreign and domestic threat actors, we assess that DVEs and criminals will remain the most likely perpetrators of deliberate CBRN-related attacks. Over the last year, there were 18 known deliberate chemical- or biological-related incidents in the Homeland, four of which were linked to political or ideological motives while the rest were criminal in nature. All of the incidents employed simple methods, and one incident caused at least one death. Two of the 18 incidents involved the alleged use of ricin, while 14 of the incidents employed easily obtainable chemicals—including a range of pesticides, chlorine, bear spray, and other chemical irritants. Fentanyl was weaponized in two instances. Foreign and domestic threat actors maintain aspirational interest in radiological and nuclear attacks, but these attacks remain unlikely.”

“We expect threat actors will continue to explore emerging and advanced technologies to aid their efforts in developing and carrying out chemical and biological attacks. Over the last year, foreign and domestic extremists online expressed interest in using DNA modification to develop biological weapons to target specific groups. We remain concerned about the potential exploitation of advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to proliferate knowledge that supports the development of novel chemical or biological agents. (For more information on AI and threat actors, see pages 26–27.) Such advances could be exploited by state and state-sponsored adversaries, but the necessary expertise for such exploitation most likely exceeds that of most nonstate actors. We also remain concerned about the potential for threat actors to use unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in chemical or biological attacks due to the continued advancement of UAS technology and the growing availability of UAS.”

“Tehran’s Tactical Knockout: Weaponized Pharmaceutical-Based Agents”

Matthew Levitt discusses Iran’s use of PBAs in this article from the CTC Sentinel: “As early as the 1980s, the U.S. intelligence community documented the ways in which Iran deployed chemical weapons for tactical delivery on the battlefield. Nearly 40 years later, U.S. officials formally assessed that Iran was in non-compliance with its Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) obligations, pointing specifically to Tehran’s development of pharmaceutical-based agents (PBAs) that attack a person’s central nervous system as part of a chemical weapons program. Over time, concern about this program has increased, with reports to the Organisation for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), statements by multilateral groups such as the G7, and a variety of U.S. government reports and sanctions. Today, with Iran’s proxies wreaking havoc throughout the region, officials worry Tehran may have already provided weaponized PBAs to several of its partners and proxies. Such a capability, tactically deployed on the battlefield, could enable further October 7-style cross-border raids or kidnapping operations. With the region on edge following the targeted killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, followed by an Israeli ground campaign targeting Hezbollah infrastructure along the border, and the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel, concern about the use of such tactical chemical weapons is high.”

What We’re Listening to 🎧

Poisons and Pestilence: ‘Back to Source’ with Seth Carus

“In this bonus episode I am joined by Seth Carus, as we explore some of the earliest allegations of biological warfare- as well as the more recent modern developments, which transformed ancient fears, into Cold War era weapon systems.”

Listen here.

NEW: The Advancing Threat Agnostic Biodefense Webinar Series

Learn more and register here.

Potential Research Priorities to Inform Readiness and Response to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1)

Learn more and register here.

One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 Book Launch

NEW-US AI Safety Institute Issues RFI on Responsible Development of Chem-Bio Models

“Respondents are encouraged to provide concrete examples, best practices, case studies, and actionable recommendations where possible. The full RFI can be found here.”

“The comment period is now open and will close on December 3, 2024, at 11:59PM Eastern Time. Comments can be submitted online at www.regulations.gov, under docket no. 240920-0247.”

NEW-Infodemic Management Course from Open WHO

“In the recent years, the circulation of health misinformation and disinformation has exploded with the digitalized information ecosystem. They cause confusion and risk-taking behaviours that can harm health. They also lead to mistrust in health authorities and undermines the public health response. Misinformation and disinformation can intensify or lengthen outbreaks when people are unsure about what they need to do to protect their health and the health of people around them especially during health emergencies. Public health workers need knowledge and skills to manage harm from health misinformation and disinformation. This course will help them to better understand the infodemic mechanisms that underlie the emergence and spread of misinformation, the complex and harmful nature of disinformation and how to intervene to better prevent and respond to both of these types of information-based harms.”

Access this self-paced course here.

NEW-ACHS Fellowship Program 2025

From the Asia Centre for Health Security: “The ACHS Fellowship Program aims to inspire and connect the next generation of biosecurity leaders and innovators.”

“This 12-month fellowship does not require relocation to Singapore and can be completed alongside full-time employment or an academic schedule.”

Learn more and apply here.

External Review of Ethical, Legal, Environmental, Safety, Security, and Societal Issues of Engineering Biology Research and Development

From NASEM: “Engineering biology holds significant potential to transform the U.S. and global economy, with promise to deliver innovative solutions in health, climate, energy, food and agriculture, and more. As research and development in engineering biology and other areas of the bioeconomy advance, addressing the societal issues related to these technologies is imperative. As requested by the CHIPS and Science Act, this study will conduct an evaluation of the ethical, legal, environmental, safety, security, and other societal issues related to engineering biology, and make recommendations on research needs related to these issues and means to effectively incorporate their consideration into research practice.”

“The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) will appoint an ad hoc committee to review and make recommendations on the ethical, legal, environmental, safety, security, and other appropriate societal issues related to engineering biology research and development. The committee will address the scholarship and practice of addressing these issues, focusing specifically on:

(1) An assessment of the current knowledge and practice on assessing and mitigating various societal issues including ethical, legal, environmental, safety, and security issues.
(2) A description of the gaps and needs relating to such issues, focusing on approaches for co-generation of assessment approaches and design of products, technologies, and services with users of engineering biology research and development
(3) Actionable recommendations on how the National Engineering Biology Research and Development Initiative, established by the CHIPS and Science Act, can address the identified gaps and needs.
(4) Actionable recommendations on how researchers across the range of disciplines engaged in engineering biology can best incorporate considerations of such societal issues into the development of research proposals and the conduct of research.”

“NASEM will produce a consensus report presenting the results of its work and offering its findings, conclusions, and recommendations.”

“We invite you to submit suggestions for experts to participate in this activity. The call for experts closes on October 16, 2024 at 11:59 (ET).”

Recommend an expert here.

Pandora Report 10.4.2024

October 4, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week’s Pandora Report covers the recently-reported outbreak of Marburg virus disease in Rwanda, the recent discovery of four more Missouri healthcare workers who experienced respiratory symptoms after caring for a patient infected with H5 avian influenza, new human cases of bird flu in California, and more.

Upcoming Virtual Information Sessions on the Biodefense Graduate Program

Marburg Outbreak Confirmed in Rwanda

Last week, the Rwanda Ministry of Health announced that it had confirmed cases of Marburg virus disease (MVD) in the country. Blood samples taken from symptomatic people were tested using RT-PCR, and were found to be positive for Marburg virus. So far, there have been 36 confirmed cases and eleven deaths across at least seven of the country’s 30 districts. As of last week, over 70% of cases were in healthcare workers from two locations in Kigali, the nation’s capital. More than 300 contacts have been traced so far.

This is the first time MVD has been reported in the country, and the WHO has emphasized that it is likely the disease will spread to neighboring countries, many of which are currently struggling amid the mpox outbreak. There is currently no available treatment or vaccine for MVD. WHO has assessed the risk of this outbreak to be very high nationally, high regionally, and low globally.

MVD, formerly known as Marburg hemorrhagic fever, is severe, often fatal in humans, and is caused by a virus in the Filoviridae family, which also includes Ebola virus. Egyptian fruit bats are natural hosts of the virus; it is spread from them to people, and it then spreads further via human-to-human transmission. While the average MVD case fatality rate is about 50%, this has varied from 24% to 88% during past outbreaks. Early supportive care improves survival odds.

Experts are concerned as there were already more than two dozen confirmed cases by the time the Rwandan government announced the outbreak. It can take as long as 21 days between exposure and symptom onset with MVD. Furthermore, because Rwanda has never had an outbreak before, healthcare professionals may have not been suspicious of MVD and did not think to test for it. All of these are worrying signs that the disease may have been circulating in the country for a few weeks before the announcement.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a Health Alert Network Health Advisory on Thursday to inform clinicians and health departments in the US about the outbreak and advise them to be aware of the potential for imported cases.

Read more:

“Deadly Marburg Virus: Scientists Race to Test Vaccines in Outbreak,” Ewen Callaway, Nature News
“Marburg Virus Outbreak in Rwanda Draws Concern Over Possibility of International Spread,” Helen Branswell, STAT News
“Marburg is an Especially Scary Virus. How Scared Should We Be of Rwanda’s Outbreak?” Gabrielle Emanuel, Goats and Soda

World Leaders Announce Target of 10% Fewer Superbug Deaths by 2030

World leaders gathered during a meeting at the UN General Assembly announced a new political declaration on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) that was signed by 193 member states. Each year, AMR is linked to 4.7 million deaths, and that number is projected to reach 8.2 million by 2050. The declaration calls for increased action across sectors like farming, pharmaceutical manufacturing, environmental protection, and healthcare to combat AMR. Furthermore, it calls for financial support for poorer countries, who are most affected by this issue, and to commit to scaling up efforts in order to reduce AMR-related deaths by 10% by the end of the decade. The declaration also invites the Quadripartite organizations (WHO, UN Environment Programme, World Organisation for Animal Health, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN) to create an independent panel to provide scientific evidence to support strategies to combat AMR. They will also update a global AMR action plan by 2026.

Avian Influenza Updates

Four More Missouri Healthcare Workers Develop Respiratory Symptoms After Contact with Bird Flu Patient

Four more healthcare workers who came into contact with a hospitalized bird flu patient in August are now confirmed to have later developed mild respiratory symptoms, bring the total to six. The Missouri patient had no contact with infected animals. One worker tested negative on a flu test, while the others’ symptoms were discovered too late to do testing. Missouri is continuing to investigate this situation with CDC’s assistance.

New Human Cases in California

CDC has confirmed two additional human cases of H5 bird flu from specimens submitted by California. Both cases are in people with occupational exposure to infected cattle. While California’s investigation is ongoing, there is no known link or contact between the two cases, which suggests these are two separate instances of animal-to-human spread of the virus. As the identification of H5 in people with exposure to infected animals is expected, CDC has not changed its risk assessment for the general public.

Read more:

“Pathogen Detection, Testing & Monitoring the H5N1 Outbreak,” Ava Desouza, Council on Strategic Risks

ISC Announces Expert Group for the Biological Weapons Convention

The International Science Council (ISC) recently announced the formation of its Expert Group dedicated to enhancing the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). In May, ISC and the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs were jointly awarded a grant by the Geneva Science Policy Interface to strengthen the BWC. In a statement, ISC said this “…initiative is a significant step toward integrating scientific advancements into the operations of the BWC, addressing the critical need for a structured mechanism to review relevant science and technology developments.”

It further explained that “The ISC project “Science-policy synergies for the Biological Weapons Convention” fosters collaboration between BWC delegates and scientific experts, developing methodologies that build mutual understanding and trust. By facilitating targeted discussions and creating tailored knowledge products, the initiative aims to equip delegates with tools to tackle current and future biological threats, enhancing the BWC’s effectiveness in global biosecurity.”

Learn more here.

“Inside HHS’ ‘One-Stop Shop’ for Health sector Cybersecurity”

Federal News Network’s Justin Doubleday interviews Biodefense PhD Program alumnus and Schar School adjunct professor Brian Mazanec in this article and accompanying Federal Drive episode. Mazanec is currently the deputy director of the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response’s Center for Preparedness. He discusses how his organization is responding to recent attacks like the Change Healthcare ransomware attacks and what HHS can offer health organizations recovering from major cyber incidents.

“Anonymous Answers: How Can We Manage Infohazards in Biosecurity?”

Anemone Franz and Tessa Alexanian discuss input from eleven experts on how to best manage infohazards in biosecurity in the third part of this series from 80,000 Hours. Answers focus on helping researchers use information responsibly, limiting secrecy to improve problem solving, considering the effects of withholding information, and more.

“Vanishing Workforce: An Antimicrobial Resistance Threat”

James Anderson, Chair of the AMR Industry Alliance, discusses the decline of the antimicrobial research and development field, its importance to the fight against AMR, and how this decline can be reversed, writing in his conclusion, “Ultimately, to meet the need for new antimicrobials that can stay ahead of the resistant bacteria, both the public and private sectors should invest in the people who are responsible for the discovery of antimicrobials to attract and retain the best scientists into the future.”

“Proceedings of Workshop: Mitigating Arboviral Threat and Strengthening Public Health Preparedness”

“This proceedings highlights the presentations and discussions that occurred at the workshop.”

“WHO Technical Advisory Group on the Responsible Use of the Life Sciences and Dual-Use Research: Report of the Meeting, Geneva, Switzerland, 16-18 April 2024”

“The WHO Technical Advisory Group on the Responsible Use of the Life Sciences and Dual-Use Research (TAG-RULS DUR) was established to provide independent advice to WHO on the monitoring and mitigation of biorisks, the advances in the life sciences and related technologies, the governance of dual-use research and the responsible use of the life sciences. The first hybrid meeting of the group took place at WHO headquarters in Geneva, from 16 to 18 April 2024, in order to provide the opportunity for TAG-RULS DUR members to exchange on WHO and related advisory groups activities relevant to their areas of work; to discuss current and upcoming activities related to the implementation of the WHO Global Guidance Framework for the responsible Use of the Life Sciences and to provide technical guidance to WHO.”

Read the meeting report here.

“Exclusive: Sen. Todd Young on biosecurity, National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology (NSCEB)”

“Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) was recently named Chair of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology (NSCEB), established by Congress to recommend policy on biotech and national security. Bio.News spoke to him in an exclusive interview about the work of the commission, the BIOSECURE Act and PASTEUR Act, and more.”

1540 Compass Second Issue

“The second issue of the 1540 Compass explores the critical components of United Nations Security Council resolution 1540 (2004), with a focus on border and export control systems crucial for its full and effective implementation. This edition particularly underscores the significance of clauses in operative paragraph 3, highlighting the global commitment to securing a world where proliferation risks are minimized through robust domestic controls.”

“This issue offers a comprehensive look at the implementation, especially across Africa, examining the varied approaches to managing exports of biological weapons-related materials. It presents a range of contributions and in-depth interviews that delve into national efforts to develop voluntary action plans and regional collaborations.”

“Discussions also extend to the impact of emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence, on the resolution, especially concerning the need for end-user controls in exports. The edition further explores strategic trade controls with best practices from selected countries that have effectively implemented such measures.”

“A significant portion of this issue is dedicated to addressing the challenges of proliferation finance, providing insights into the complexities of this area without an official definition and offering practical recommendations for future approaches.”

“In recognizing the role of civil society in preventing weapons of mass destruction proliferation, the journal includes discussions on how various stakeholders can collaborate with governments and international organizations to ensure compliance with the resolution.”

“This issue also introduces a new Letters-to-the-Editor section, encouraging a thoughtful and nuanced discussion within the dedicated community towards enhancing global security through stringent border and export controls.”

“Reforming the Australia Group to Better Combat Biological Threats”

Kyle Wilgus discusses recent moves by the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security to remove export controls on biological materials and technologies for companies and individuals residing in nations participating in the Australia Group. He argues that this is an important step in strengthening biotechnology and broader technological innovation because it “…incentivized free, unburdened trade in biological materials and technologies among its members and showcased the potential impact of the Australia Group.” He argues that, in the future, the group should build on this progress by “reformulating and expanding to better mitigate the ever-evolving spectrum of biological threats.”

“Healthy Ecosystems, Healthy Humans”

Tomas Weber discusses how biodiversity acts as a barrier against disease as “Flourishing ecosystems safeguard humans from a panoply of zoonotic illnesses,” in this piece from Hopkins Bloomberg Public Health. He covers multiple drivers of biodiversity loss and research work that is being done to help combat these effects.

“‘He Began to Complain of Sharp Pain in the Stomach”: Official Documents Obtained by The Insider Confirm Navalny Was Poisoned in Prison”

Roman Dobrokhotov re-visits Navalny’s death in this piece, writing in part “The Insider has obtained access to hundreds of official documents related to Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s death in the Polar Wolf penal colony in the Russian Far North on Feb. 16, 2024. Officially, Navalny’s death was attributed to natural causes, and Russia’s Investigative Committee stated in July that the case “does not have a criminal nature.” However, the contents of the documents in The Insider’s possession demonstrate that Russian authorities consistently removed references to symptoms Navalny was noted by prison doctors to have been suffering — symptoms that did not fit with the Russian state’s official cause of death. As medical experts confirm, these symptoms clearly indicate that Navalny was poisoned.”

“Chemical Terrorism Threat Perceptions”

In his latest working paper, Alexander Kelle of the Arms Control and Emerging Technologies program at IFSH Hamburg examines the evolving salience of chemical terrorism within the CWC framework and the contribution of the OPCW. He finds that responses have been linked most often to the international cooperation and assistance norms, and regularly noted the work of the Open-Ended Working Group on Terrorism. Read the working paper here.

ICYMI: NTI|Bio Briefs Capitol Hill on Innovative Solutions to Biotechnology Risks

From NTI: “Against a backdrop of growing risks associated with advances in bioscience and biotechnology, NTI | bio and the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation (CACNP) hosted a September 17 Congressional staff briefing on “Preventing Biological Catastrophe and Protecting the U.S. Bioeconomy.”’

“The event, which explored opportunities for Congress and the White House to mitigate the risks, featured a panel discussion on safeguarding evolving capabilities that arise from the combination of artificial intelligence with biotechnology and providing oversight of dual-use life science research of concern. Participants included:

Dr. Ryan Ritterson, specialist lead, Deloitte.

Mr. Daniel Gastfriend, director for Biodefense and Pandemic Preparedness, National Security Council

Dr. Gregory Koblentz, associate professor and director of the Biodefense Graduate Program, George Mason University”

Read more here.

NEW: Synthesis Screening Workshop 2-Securing Bioproduction Against an Evolving Threat Landscape

From AI for SynBio: “Advances in AI are changing the threat landscape in many fields, including in the field of biology. With AI assisted design tools, the complexity and obfuscation potential of the synthetic biological materials is expected to increase. Conversely, the same AI advances can be deployed to help screen DNA/RNA synthesis requests before they can be used for malicious purposes. This workshop seeks insight on current and future advances that will shape both the threat and countermeasure landscapes and prepare the community for the changing threat landscape. The workshop seeks perspectives from academia, industry, and government….The Fall Workshop will focus on the evolving landscape in the years beyond 2026 with an eye towards 2030.”

This hybrid event will take place on October 9. Learn more and register here.

NEW: Airfinity Avian Influenza Webinar

“Join Airfinity and its expert panelists in a discussion of the current avian influenza outbreak. Key topics will include the evolution of the virus, the potential of a recombination event and the current state of pandemic preparedness.”

This event will take place on October 10 at 10 am ET. Learn more and join here.

NEW: Potential Research Priorities to Inform Readiness and Response to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1)

Learn more and register here.

NEW: One Health and the Politics of COVID-19 Book Launch

Responsible AI: Design, Development, and Use

Join the Mason Autonomy and Robotics Center (MARC) for this 3-day in-person course on Responsible AI: Design, Development, and Use!  As AI becomes increasingly pervasive across various domains, it is essential that we prioritize responsible principles, policies, and practices. Learn from top AI scholars and industry experts about ethical and safe AI deployment. You’ll also gain the critical skills to navigate the complexities of AI in business, healthcare, transportation and more.
Course Dates: October 15-17, 2024
Registration Deadline: October 8, 2024

FLUency: True Expertise and Effectiveness in the Battle Against Influenza

“This Commission meeting, FLUency: True Expertise and Effectiveness in the Battle Against Influenza, will be held on Tuesday, October 8th, in Washington, DC. The focus of this meeting will be to provide the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense with a better understanding of: (1) national leadership to defend food and agriculture against influenza; (2) federal operational requirements for preparedness, coordination, and response; (3) biosurveillance, forecasting, and the need for diagnostic tests; and (4) front-line needs and partnerships in the fight against influenza.”

This event will take place in-person on October 8 from 9:20 am to 2 pm EST. Learn more and register here.

Bio and Beer (October 10)

From the Northern Virginia BioHub: Join us for a panel discussion with local investors as they share their funding priorities, insights on what’s ahead, and tips for meaningful engagement. Also, connect with our dynamic community of professionals from industry, academia, healthcare, investment, and government for a fun evening of networking!

Our panelists include:

Deborah Hemingway, Managing Partner, Ecphora Capital
Bibhash Mukhopadhyay, Managing Partner, Sound Bioventures
Kevin O’Connell, Senior Vice President, In-Q-Tel

Location: JLL Tysons Office, 1800 Tysons Boulevard, McLean, Virginia 22102

Hosted by: The Northern Virginia BioHub

Signature Sponsor: JLL

Additional Sponsors: Virginia Bio, the Prince William County Department of Economic Development, and George Mason University’s Institute for Biohealth Innovation

External Review of Ethical, Legal, Environmental, Safety, Security, and Societal Issues of Engineering Biology Research and Development

“NASEM will produce a consensus report presenting the results of its work and offering its findings, conclusions, and recommendations.”

“We invite you to submit suggestions for experts to participate in this activity. The call for experts closes on October 16, 2024 at 11:59 (ET).”

Recommend an expert here.

DARPA Invites Proposals for AI Biotechnology Pitch Days Dec. 5-6

“DARPA funds the research and development of technologies with the potential for transformational impact, central to delivering on the agency’s mission to create and prevent strategic surprise for national security. The agency’s Biological Technologies Office focuses on the natural world to derive revolutionary capabilities centered on:

Foundational technologies that promote simulation and prediction of biological systems and outcomes, like simulation, foundational models, and data generation,
Warfighter readiness, health, and recovery, such as medical countermeasures, diagnostics, health IT and medical devices, and
Operational support of U.S. forces to enable their execution of missions across the spectrum, ranging from fibers for garments to distributed, point-of-need manufacturing.”

“To capitalize on these new opportunities and further accelerate the pace of scientific and technological discovery and development, DARPA looks to include targeted and limited-scope investments via an AI BTO solicitation seeking proposals on technologies focused at the intersection of artificial intelligence and biotechnology.”

‘“AI BTO seeks to fund proposals that catalyze the formation of future research projects by clarifying the opportunity space and de-risking technical barriers to achieving high impact,” said BTO Director Dr. Michael Koeris. “To this end, the office is providing $4.5 million to support up to 45 revolutionary catalyst projects and will be finalizing research agreements day of. We look forward to reviewing the novel biotechnology approaches to further our national security mission.”’

“BTO leadership is interested in engaging first-time or non-traditional proposers and seeks revolutionary approaches to emerging or anticipated Department of Defense challenges. During these events, BTO will introduce five new overarching topics that align with AI/ML applications:

Prediction and Health
Autonomous Science
Biomanufacturing/Synthetic Biology
Challenges with Scale
Exciting Frontiers”

Pitch Days

“DARPA will host AI BTO Pitch Days on December 5-6, 2024, in the Washington, DC, region to select and award AI BTO catalyst projects. To be considered for AI BTO Pitch Day participation, offerors must submit a short white paper consisting of a technical description of the proposer’s idea in response to one of the focus areas listed above.”

“DARPA will notify offerors if they are selected for further evaluation via an in-person Pitch Day presentation to a panel of BTO program managers at the AI BTO Pitch Day event.”

“If selected for award at Pitch Day, DARPA may issue a Research Other Transactions award for one of three award scenarios – $100,000, $200,000, or $300,000. The maximum amount of government funding given to any single proposer will be $300,000.”

“To submit a white paper, register at https://usg.valideval.com/teams/aibto_2024/signup. The deadline is Friday, October 9, 2024 by 4:00PM EDT. Late applications will not be accepted.”

“Additional information is available on SAM.gov.”

Call for Experts: Health-Security Interface Technical Advisory Group (HSI-TAG)

“The World Health Organization (WHO) is seeking two experts to serve as new members of the Health-Security Interface Technical Advisory Group (HSI-TAG). This “Call for experts” provides information about the advisory group in question, the expert profiles being sought, the process to express interest, and the process of selection.”

“The concept of Health-Security Interface (HSI) applies to those public health activities whose performance involves to some extent the security sector broadly understood (e.g. international and non-governmental organizations, civil defense, military health personnel, law enforcement and armed forces, defense-related research programmes), certain international organizations and other entities with a security relevant mandate. These activities may include protection of health from traditional and emerging infectious disease threats; deliberate events and investigation of alleged use of chemical and biological agents including non-permissive environments and conflict zones; and any health activities performed in collaboration with security actors.”

“The HSI-TAG is multidisciplinary, with members who have a range of technical knowledge, skills and experience relevant to the Health-Security Interface.”

“Considering the recent developments and global trends, the Secretariat realized that there was a need to strengthen the following areas of expertise/experience, hence welcomes expressions of interest from:

Bioterrorism experts (knowledge on pathogens of security concern, their microbiological characterization and application/modification for weaponization, diagnostics, countermeasures and containment measures),
Decision/policy makers with hands-on experience dealing with significant deliberate event(s) (biological/chemical) response at the local, regional, or national level.”

“For the improved geographical and gender representation of the HSI-TAG members, the WHO Secretariat encourages applications from the WHO African, Western Pacific, European, Eastern Mediterranean and Pan American Health Organization/Americas regions and female or non-male gender identities.”

Learn more about the HSI and express interest by October 7 here.

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