juliadhomstad

Week in DC: Events

May 17, 2015July 15, 2016 by juliadhomstad, posted in Events, Week In DC

May 18, 2015

Former CIA Deputy Director to Discuss Agency’s Counterterrorism Success and Failures
Date: May 18, 10:00 am
Location: National Press Club, 529 14^th Street NW, 13^th Floor, Washington DC

Former CIA deputy director Michael Morell will offer his assessment of the agency’s counterterrorism successes and failures of the last 20 years at a National Press Club Newsmaker on Monday, May 18 at 10 a.m. in the club’s Bloomberg Room.

Morrell will argue that the threat of terrorism did not die with bin Laden and will illuminate new and growing threats from terrorist groups that could leave this country vulnerable to attacks much larger than 9/11 if not addressed. These insights are discussed in his new book, The Great War of Our Time: The CIA’s Fight Against Terrorism From al Qa’ida to ISIS.

Morell is one of this country’s most prominent national security professionals, with extensive experience in intelligence and foreign policy. Mr. Morell was a top CIA officer for over 30 years who played a critical role in the most important counterterrorism events of the past two decades.

Like all Newsmaker events, this news conference is open to credentialed press and NPC club members, free of charge. No advance registration is required.

Contact Keith Hill, Newsmaker Host, khill@bna.com.

From Cooperation to Competition—The Future of U.S.-Russian Relations
Date: May 18, 10:00 am
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC

Russian aggression in 2014 caught U.S. policy and strategy off guard, forcing reactive measures and reevaluation of U.S. policies towards Russia. Russia used nonlinear approaches and operated just beneath traditional thresholds of conflict to take full advantage of U.S. and NATO policy limitations. In light of this strategic problem, members of the Carlisle Scholars Program at the U.S. Army War College (USAWC) conducted a wargame which revealed four key considerations for future policy and strategy. This panel presentation will present the findings from that wargame. The views presented by the panelist are their own and should not be implied to be those of their sponsoring service, the U.S. Army or the U.S. Army War College.

Fighting for the Final Frontier? Conflict in Space During the Late 21^st Century
Date: May 18, 1:00 pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15^th Street NW, 12^th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

Discussions about the future of warfare are often limited by necessity to the next two or three decades. Not on May 18, when the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security Art of Future Warfare project will travel the farthest yet into the future to consider conflict in space during the final decade of the 21st Century. Join best-selling science fiction writer David Brin and other experts to discuss whether the struggles over power and resources on Earth will extend off world, and how they might play out.

This event will also feature the winner of the project’s latest short story creative challenge that focused on conflict in space during the last decade of the 21st Century. As part of its mission to explore the role that artists can have in the national security community, the project works to showcase not only particular visions of the future but also the methodologies employed by the creative community in order to help better prepare for, and prevent, future conflict.

Like the recent Art of Future Warfare “Great War” creative challenge, this contest will showcase the value of creative thinking in the national security realm.

Bursting the Plutonium Bubble: How Utopian Communities Made Dystopian Nuclear Landscapes
Date: May 18, 4:00 pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 6^th Floor Conference Room, Washington DC

Historian Kate Brown draws on official records and dozens of interviews to tell the extraordinary stories of Richland, Washington and Ozersk, Russia – the first two cities in the world to produce plutonium. To contain secrets, American and Soviet leaders created plutopias – communities of nuclear families living in highly-subsidized, limited-access atomic cities. Brown shows that the plants’ segregation of permanent and temporary workers and of nuclear and non-nuclear zones created a bubble of immunity, where dumps and accidents were glossed over and plant managers freely embezzled and polluted. Drawing plutonium curtain around production sites and promoting ‘nuclear villages’ with healthy nuclear families has left a lasting legacy.

Kate Brown lives in Washington, DC and is Professor of History at UMBC. Brown, a 2009 Guggenheim Fellow, is the author of two award-winning books: Plutopia: Nuclear Families in Atomic Cities and the Great Soviet and American Plutonium Disasters (Oxford 2013) and A Biography of No Place: From Ethnic Borderland to Soviet Heartland (Harvard 2004). Brown’s most recent book Dispatches from Dystopia: History of Places Not Yet Forgotten will appear in 2015 with the University of Chicago Press.

This final meeting in the Washington History Seminar Spring 2015 series is co-sponsored by the George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs Nuclear Policy Talks.

RSVP here.

Xi to Pakistan, Modi to China: What it Means for the West
Date: May 18, 5:30 pm
Location: German Marshall Fund, 1744 R Street NW, Washington DC

The geopolitics of Asia are on full display thanks to visits by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Pakistan and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to China. What do these trips tell us about diplomatic relations in Asia and why should it matter to the West? Experts Tanvi Madan, Daniel Markey, and Andrew Small will address these and other questions during this timely event. Following the discussion, there will be a drinks reception to celebrate the release of Small’s new book The China-Pakistan Axis.

RSVP here.

Crafting a National Security Strategy
Date: May 18, 6:30 pm
Location: Embassy of France, 4101 Reservoir Road NW, Washington DC

On Monday, May 18th, join the NxGen International Security Network (NxGen ISN) for an exclusive opportunity to engage with the National Security Council Director for Strategic Planning, Colonel Troy Thomas, on the U.S. National Security Strategy at the French Embassy. Following the off-the-record discussion, a cocktail reception featuring French wine and cheese will be served.

NxGen ISN is a peer-based network that curates and empowers emerging leaders by linking them with influential practitioners through thematic cycles and public and private events.

May 19, 2015

Renewing the Section 123 Nuclear Agreement with China: Implications for U.S.-China Relations
Date: May 19, 9:00 am
Location: Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

As China moves to decrease greenhouse gas emissions in order to meet its 2030 climate change targets, nuclear energy is likely to play a major role in China’s future energy mix. Nearly 30 years ago, the United States and China developed a Section 123 agreement, which has allowed China to use U.S. technology to build up its nuclear fleet. This agreement has provided a strong foundation for Sino-U.S. cooperation and has significantly benefited the United States’ economy by allowing U.S. firms to export nuclear technology worth billions of dollars, which has generated tens of thousands of U.S. jobs. As the current Section 123 agreement is set to expire on December 30, 2015, the United States needs to decide this year whether or not to extend its terms.

On May 19, the Energy Security and Climate Initiative (ESCI) at Brookings will host a discussion on the future of the Section 123 agreement with China. Panelists will present an overview of the Section 123 agreement, including a discussion of how it has been implemented, its broader geopolitical context, its implications on the U.S. economy, and its importance in achieving U.S.-China climate emission reductions. Speakers will also address the implications of China’s program on nuclear nonproliferation and Sino-U.S. relations. ESCI Senior Fellow Charles Ebinger will moderate the discussion and audience Q&A.

Missile Defense and U.S. National Strategy
Date: May 19, 10:00 am
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC

Please join us for a discussion with Admiral Winnefeld on the past, present, and future of missile defense.

Featuring:Admiral James A. Winnefeld, Jr., Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Introduction by: Dr. John J. Hamre, President and CEO, Pritzker Chair, and Director, Brzezinski Institute, CSIS

Moderated by: Dr. Thomas Karako, Senior Fellow, International Security Program, CSIS

The Future of U.S. Defense Cooperation in Latin America
Date: May 19, 4:30 pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15^th Street NW, 12^th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

Please join the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security for a Commanders Series event with General John F. Kelly, Commander of US Southern Command, to discuss the future of US defense cooperation in Latin America.

Latin America is of increasing strategic importance to the United States. In an age of the rebalance to Asia, continued engagement in the Middle East, and the emergence of an aggressive Russia, Latin America has received comparatively little attention from the US national security community. Slowly, this is starting to change, especially with the recent crisis of unaccompanied children migrants fleeing poverty and violence in Central America. How will these and other developments affect US defense strategy and cooperation in the region, and how will this strategy help the United States best deal with this important region? General Kelly will come to the Atlantic Council to discuss these and other questions.

Since 2012, General Kelly has been the Commander of US Southern Command, which is responsible for all Department of Defense security cooperation in the forty-five nations and territories of Central and South America and the Caribbean Sea, an area of 16 million square miles. Before his current position he served as the Senior Military Assistant to the Secretary of Defense from March 2011 to October 2012. Kelly also commanded Marine Forces Reserve and Marine Forces North in Iraq from October 2009 to March 2011.

May 20, 2015

Crisis in Libya: European and Libyan Views
Date: May 20, 12:00 pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15^th Street NW, 12^th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

Since the 2011 uprising against Muammar Qaddafi, Libya’s transition to democracy has been severely derailed, culminating over the course of the last twelve months in political and armed clashes between two main factions. The United Nations and Western states support a negotiated solution, but hardliners increasingly call the shots. With regional states lending support to the rival sides, options for breaking the impasse are few.

Meanwhile, security threats to neighboring states and Europe are on the rise as the political vacuum in Libya provides a haven for extremist militants, including the self-proclaimed Islamic State. Please join the Atlantic Council for a discussion exploring how Libyans view the devolution of their country, the current debate among European policymakers, and viable options for the international community to bolster chances for successful peace talks.

Efficient Cybersecurity Regulation: Ensuring the Cure Isn’t Worse than the Disease
Date: May 20, 12:00 pm
Location: Heritage Foundation, 214 Massachusetts Ave NE, Lehrman Auditorium, Washington DC

A wave of data breaches at American companies has once again highlighted just how insecure consumer data is. Apple, Target, Sony, and recently Anthem (a Blue Cross and Blue Shield company) are some high profile examples. In response, various consumer advocates and regulatory agencies have begun to explore ways to encourage data-sharing between businesses, as well as with the government, and to encourage the development of data security standards. Can and should industry self-regulate? Is there a government agency equipped to regulate? What should data security standards look like, and could those standards open the door to unscrupulous tort litigation? Join us as our panelists discuss the competing risks of cyber-attack and overregulation.

U.S.-Russia Relations Beyond Ukraine: Realities and Recommendations
Date: May 20, 12:00 pm
Location: George Washington University, Lindner Commons (6^th Floor), 1957 E Street NW, Washington DC

The Russian-American relationship has reached its lowest point since the end of the Cold War. While the Ukrainian crisis has been the catalyst for pushing tensions over the edge, a number of more pervasive issues, such as disagreements over bilateral arms control, European security, and crises in the Middle East continue to drive Moscow and Washington apart.

What role have domestic factors played in shaping the present situation, and how has each side crafted its respective policies toward the other? What channels of cooperation remain, and where are U.S-Russia relations moving beyond Ukraine?

Please join CGI and the Institute for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies at GWU for a discussion with Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at Hudson Institute, on the future of the U.S.-Russian relationship. The event will mark the release of Dr. Weitz’s forthcoming report for CGI, “The United States and Russia: Realities and Recommendations Moving Forward.” Fiona Hill of the Brookings Institution will join as the discussant. Konstantin Avramov, Program Director at CGI, will moderate the Q&A.

RSVP here.

Cyber Risk Wednesday: How Will Our Cyber Future Be Different from Today?
Date: May 20, 4:00 pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15^th Street NW, 12^th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

The Internet and related technologies have been safe, secure, and resilient enough for the past three decades of their existence to reshape nearly every industry, create a hyper-connected world, and transform the global economy. Perhaps this will continue indefinitely, with the future holding yet more wonders. However, the increasingly pervasive Internet brings with it growing dependence on a shared, stunningly complex system-of-systems. This has critically exposed companies and governments to systemic cyber risks, where a series of local failures might turn into a global shock similar to the 2008 financial crisis.

What is more, while cyberspace has been continuously evolving through changes in usage and available technologies, most of the current cybersecurity trends now point to a darker future: every year we face more data breaches, critical vulnerabilities, and nations building and using offensive cyber capabilities. Will the accumulated downside risks of dependence on a sometimes rickety and untrustworthy digital infrastructure soon start outpacing the upside opportunities of global interconnectedness? Or will cyberspace head in a direction that is unlike anything ever experienced or envisioned? What game-changing discontinuities could transform the future of cyber conflict and cooperation?

The moderated panel discussion will assess these tensions between risks and opportunities rooted in cyberspace and discuss potential cyber futures that could take shape over the next decade.

This event is part of the Atlantic Council project with Zurich Insurance Group and the University of Denver’s Pardee Center for International Futures focusing on assessing the balance between risks and opportunities in cyberspace. In the first year, using quantitative and qualitative frameworks, the group is assessing the impact of accumulated downside cyber risks on upside opportunities for economic growth. In the second year, the team will evaluate the impacts of geopolitical and demographic risks.

May 21, 2015

The Convergence of Marine Science and Geopolitics in the South China Sea
Date: May 21, 10:00 am
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC

The CSIS Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies is pleased to host a discussion with James Borton, former correspondent for theWashington Times; John McManus, professor of marine biology and fisheries and director of the National Center for Coral Reef Research at the University of Miami; and Kathleen Walsh, associate professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College. They will discuss the convergence of marine science and geopolitics in the South China Sea.

Borton teaches writing in the English and Marine Science Departments at Coastal Carolina University. He is a former foreign correspondent for the Washington Timesand has interviewed top leaders throughout Southeast Asia. He recently edited The South China Sea: Challenges and Promises.

McManus chaired the five-year review of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Coral Reef Conservation Program. As the former leader of the Aquatic Environments Program of the WorldFish Center in Southeast Asia he was the founder of ReefBase, the Global Coral Reef Database, and the International Coral Reef Action Network.

Walsh teaches policy analysis at the U.S. Naval War College (NWC). She has also co-taught electives on China’s national security and on the history of technology. Walsh is also an affiliate of the China Maritime Studies Institute and participates in the NWC’s Asia Pacific Studies Group.

The Federal Budget & Appropriations: Democracy & Human Rights in the Middle East
Date: May 21, 10:00 am
Location: Russell Senate Office Building, Room 485, 2 Constitution Ave NE, Washington DC

POMED and the Heinrich Böll Foundation of North America are pleased to invite you to attend a public panel discussion to release an annual publication, The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2016: Democracy, Governance, and Human Rights in the Middle East. This report, authored by POMED’s Executive Director Stephen McInerney and Advocacy Director Cole Bockenfeld, offers a detailed look at U.S. funding and assistance for democracy and governance in the Middle East, the congressional appropriations process, and implications for U.S. policy in the Middle East during a turbulent time. As the region is mired in multiple conflicts—protracted civil wars in Syria and Libya, the rise of the Islamic State, and surges of conflict and violence in Yemen—why and how should the United States continue to invest in democracy and governance?

This publication focuses on several key questions: How have the Obama administration and Congress responded to dramatic changes in the region since 2011? How have deteriorating political situations and escalating violence affected U.S. policy and funding in the region? How has the United States responded to Tunisia’s relative success in democratization? What are the most significant changes in U.S. funding and appropriations when compared to previous years? And what might we expect from Congress during its ongoing appropriations process?

RSVP required. RSVP here.

Counterterrorism and State-Building in Somalia: Progress of More of the Same?
Date: May 21, 2:00 pm
Location: Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

For years, the war-torn and famine-ravaged Somalia has been a haven for international terrorism, as demonstrated again in the recent horrific attack in Garissa, Kenya. International counterterrorism efforts – ranging from air strikes to proxy wars to the deployment of African Union forces – have provided limited results at best. International efforts to build more inclusive and less corrupt state institutions in Somalia have similarly struggled. While Somalia has set goals to reform its government and revise its constitution by 2016, most of these commitments remain in grave doubt. And as Somalia prepares for national elections in the year ahead, insecurity within the country continues to rise.

On May 21, the Africa Security Initiative, part of Brookings Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, will host a discussion on the current state of Somalia, its path to reform and increased stability, and its upcoming elections. Senior Fellow Vanda Felbab-Brown, who has recently returned from Somalia, will focus on the political and military developments in the country and region, as well as the latest on extremist activity. Michael O’Hanlon, co-director of the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence will moderate.

Following discussion, the panelists will take audience questions.

May 22, 2015

Implications of Leadership Changes in Saudi Arabia
Date: May 22, 9:00 am
Location: Rayburn House Office Building, Room B-369, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington DC

On May 22, 2015, the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations and the U.S.-GCC Corporate Cooperation Committee are hosting a public affairs briefing titled “Leadership Changes in Saudi Arabia: What Implications for the Kingdom, the Region, and the U.S.?”

The featured specialist will be Mr. Nawaf Obaid, Visiting Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University; Lecturer, London Academy of Diplomacy, Stirling University; and Senior Fellow, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies. Serving as moderator and facilitator will be Dr. John Duke Anthony, Founding President and CEO, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations; and Member, U.S. Department of State Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy and Subcommittee on Sanctions.

RSVP here.

Pandora Report 05.17.15

May 17, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in Pandora Report

Yowza! That’s another semester in the books for the GMU Biodefense students. Please excuse the sparse activity on the blog, but with the semester over, things should be getting back to normal.

This weekend we have a updates on Ebola and the bird flu outbreak in the U.S., plus other stories you may have missed.

Have a great week, (enjoy the Mad Men finale!) and see you back here next weekend!

Ebola is (still) living in an American doctor’s eye

As an update, Liberia has (finally) been declared Ebola free, the number of cases in Guinea continue to rise due to transmissions at funerals, and those in Sierra Leone are dying less from Ebola than from other diseases due to the collapse of the healthcare system. It’s been over a year and we are still learning things about Ebola and its persistence on hospital surfaces, sexual fluids, and now, according to a study in the New England Journal of Medicine, the eye. WHO volunteer Ian Crozier was diagnosed in Sierra Leone and transported to Emory University where he was treated. Months later he returned to the hospital with symptoms like blurred vision and acute pain in his left eye. The cause? Ebola.

The Washington Post—“Ebola may have found refuge in patients’ eyes because, researchers said, the eye is walled off from the immune system. As the New York Times put it: “The barriers are not fully understood, but they include tightly packed cells in minute blood vessels that keep out certain cells and molecules, along with unique biological properties that inhibit the immune system.” This phenomenon is called “immune privilege” — and it means the eye can harbor viruses.”

America’s $45 Billion Poultry Industry Has a (Really) Bad Case of Bird Flu

The title says it all, frankly. Since early December 2014 three strains of highly pathogenic avian influenza have been circulating in North America. A state of emergency has been declared in Iowa (one of the hardest hit states) and over 21 million birds have been killed to contain and prevent the spread of the virus. Beyond the culling of birds, the outbreak is having an affect on business—China, South Korea, and Mexico have banned imports of U.S. poultry (to protect their own industries.)

The Motley Fool—“Falling exports could hurt farmers, but it could also help to offset domestic price increases from less supply. Although, with tens of millions of bird deaths and no end in sight to the pandemic, domestic food prices could be the largest casualty in the end.”

Stories You May Have Missed

Biodefense topics in popular culture (especially TV and movies) are one of my favorite things! That’s why I was delighted to see the medical explanation of Game of Thrones’ greyscale.
Bird influenza and canine influenza cause problems for our furry and feathered friends, but how can they affect humans? The Washington Post investigates.
Are you one of the many Americans who takes a daily probiotic? You’ve got Ilya Metchnikoff to thank—the man who drank a glass of cholera all in the name of science!
Bavarian Nordic pharmaceutical company has announced two successful late-stage tests for a smallpox vaccine called Imvamune.
I don’t want to shock you, but the OPCW has announced the discovery of chemicals used to make sarin and VX nerve agents at an undisclosed Syrian site. “This is a pretty strong indication [Syria] have been lying about what they did with sarin.”
According to the U.S. Justice Department a former Department of Energy and Nuclear Regulatory Commission employee has been charged with attempting to extract information on nuclear weapons.
The WHO received notification that a new case of MERS CoV has been diagnosed in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The 61-year-old patient was treated and discharged.
The USDA Economic Research Service estimates that the yearly economic burden of foodborne pathogens is $15.5 billion! A run down of the report is available on barfblog (clever name, right?)

Image Credit: 8thstar

LAST DAY: SUMMER COURSE EARLY REGISTRATION

May 15, 2015May 15, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in Program News

The early registration discount for the professional education summer course Pandemics, Bioterrorism, and International Security (July 22-24 in Arlington, VA) expires today, May 15, 2015.

This three-day, non-credit course introduces participants to the challenges facing the world at the intersection of public health, the life sciences, and national security. The course is designed for professionals and academics in public health, life sciences, industry, international affairs, emergency management, law enforcement, and national security who have responsibilities for preventing, preparing for, or responding to pandemics or bioterrorism. The course faculty are internationally recognized experts who have been extensively involved with research and policymaking on public health, biodefense and national security issues.

Sign up by May 15 for a discounted registration rate. Discounts are also available for GMU alum and groups of three or more from the same organization. For more information and to register, visit ocpe.gmu.edu/PBIS.htm

New From The Biodefense Faculty

May 15, 2015October 29, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in Program News

On this #FacultyFriday, we’ve got recent publications from two George Mason Biodefense faculty members.

Dr. Gregory Koblentz looks at America’s next big nuclear challenge from Iran.

The April 2 framework agreement between the P5+1 and Iran fails to address an important risk posed by Iran’s nuclear program. Through a combination of restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities and facilities and more intrusive verification mechanisms, the framework adequately addresses two major risks posed by Iran’s nuclear program—breakout and sneakout. The framework, however, completely ignores the risk of leakout: the proliferation of nuclear technology and expertise from Iran to other countries. Iran, once the recipient of foreign nuclear assistance, is now poised to provide that assistance, either deliberately or through unauthorized acts by scientists or companies, to other countries.

His entire piece in The National Interest can be found here.

Dr. Trevor Thrall (and Pandora Report staff writer Erik Goepner) make the case against ground engagement with the Islamic State.

The most common argument made by hawks for U.S. engagement is to prevent future Islamic State-sponsored terrorism against the U.S. homeland. Our track record on homeland security since 9/11, however, reveals that a ground war is unnecessary. In the 13 years before 9/11, Islamist-inspired groups launched five attacks on U.S. soil. In the same period since 9/11, just four attacks have been carried out in the U.S. despite the rapid rise in Islamist mobilization and growth in global terrorism. From 2000 to 2013, the number of Islamic-inspired terrorist groups on the State Department’s list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations spiked 185 percent, while the estimated number of Islamist fighters rose 243 percent. Clearly, the United States’ success at limiting attacks on its homeland has come not from destroying terrorist groups abroad, but through improved intelligence and other homeland security-focused efforts.

Their piece in The Detroit News can be found here.

Week in DC: Events

May 11, 2015July 15, 2016 by juliadhomstad, posted in Events, Week In DC

May 11, 2015

The Future of Iraq: A Conversation with Sunni Leaders
Date: May 11, 9:00 am
Location: Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Wahsington DC

A significant victory against ISIS in Iraq will require meaningful reconciliation between Iraq’s warring communities. The greatest unknown is Iraq’s Sunni population. Their isolation from the Iraqi political system, stemming from the divisive policies of the previous Iraqi government, opened the door to ISIS’s return to Iraq and lies at the heart of this new Iraqi civil war. If Iraq is to achieve peace again and remain a unified state, one of the most important questions is how to bring Iraq’s Sunnis back into the fold.

On Monday, May 11, the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution will host a conversation with two key Sunni leaders from Iraq. Rafe al-Issawi served as deputy prime minister and minister of finance under former Prime Minister Maliki, and is one of the most prominent Sunni leaders from Anbar province; Atheel al-Nujayfi is the governor of Ninewah Province and one of the most prominent Sunni leaders from Mosul. These leading Sunni officials will discuss the future of Iraq with moderator and Brookings Senior Fellow Kenneth Pollack. They will explore the Sunni role in leading Iraq going forward, Sunni concerns about marginalization, and what role the United States might play in this delicate but vital process.

U.S. Strategy for Civil and Military Space
Date: May 11, 10:00 am
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2^nd Floor Conference Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC

Sean O’Keefe, former Administrator of NASA, and General James Cartwright, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff will have an easy chair discussion moderated by Dr. John Hamre, President and CEO of CSIS, on U.S. strategy for civil and military space. The discussion will focus on new challenges the U.S. faces in maintaining its strategic advantage in space, and the implications of privatization for the future of U.S. leadership and innovation in civil space.

State of the Cybersecurity Union: A Discussion with Admiral Michael Rogers
Date: May 11, 10:30 am
Location: Homeland Security Policy Institute, Jack Morton Auditorium, 805 21^st Street NW, Washington DC

The Center for Cyber & Homeland Security (CCHS) at the George Washington University invites you to a discussion on the “State of the Cybersecurity Union” with Admiral Michael S. Rogers, U.S. Navy; Commander, U.S. Cyber Command; Director, National Security Agency; Chief, Central Security Service.

At the event, Admiral Rogers will provide an overview of the current state of cybersecurity threats to the United States, and will discuss what U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency are doing to address them, in light of the new Department of Defense cybersecurity strategy released earlier this month. Admiral Rogers’ initial remarks will be followed by a moderated discussion with CCHS Director Frank Cilluffo and Q&A with members of the audience.

Russia’s Thorn in Europe’s Side: Kaliningrad, NATO, and the EU
Date: May 11, 11:00 am
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 5^th Floor Conference Room, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC

After Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and the West’s introduction of economic sanctions, the Kaliningrad region has become a source of tension between Russia, NATO, and the EU. The region has staged tit-for-tat military displays by both Russia and neighboring EU and NATO members Poland and Lithuania. But while Russia is eager to project the image of Kaliningrad as a military stronghold and buffer against NATO expansionism, Kaliningrad’s real threat to European stability stems from its vulnerable exclave status and unclear economic relationship with the EU. This talk will outline the region’s curious history, focusing on recent years when Kaliningrad has served both as a military outpost and a cultural bridge between Russia and Europe.

RSVP here.

May 12, 2015

After a Nuclear Agreement: Whither Arab-Iranian and U.S.-GCC Relations?
Date: May 12, 8:30 am
Location: Rayburn House Office Building, Room B-369, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington DC

On May 12, 2015, the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, the West Asia Council, and the U.S.-GCC Corporate Cooperation Committee are hosting a public affairs briefing titled “After a Nuclear Agreement: Whither Arab-Iranian and U.S.-GCC Relations?” Featured specialists include:

Dr. John Duke Anthony, Founding President and CEO, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations; Member, U.S. Department of State Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy and Subcommittee on Sanctions; Author, “Strategic Dynamics of Iran-GCC Relations”;
Dr. Christian Koch, Director, Gulf Research Center Foundation (Geneva, Switzerland); former Director of International Studies, Gulf Research Center (Dubai, UAE);
Dr. Sara Vakhshouri, President, SVB Energy International; Author, The Marketing and Sale of Iranian Export Crude Oil Since the Islamic Revolution;
Dr. Thomas Mattair, Executive Director, Middle East Policy Council; Author,The Three Occupied UAE Islands: The Tunbs and Abu Musa and Global Security Watch – Iran: A Reference Handbook;
Dr. Alidad Mafinezam, President, West Asia Council; Author, Iran and Its Place Among Nations; and
Dr. Imad Harb, Distinguished International Affairs Fellow, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations; former Senior Researcher in Strategic Studies, Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Mr. John Pratt, Member, Board of Directors, and Distinguished International Affairs Fellow, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, and former Chairman, Middle East Council of the American Chambers of Commerce, will serve as moderator.

RSVP here.

Central Asia in a Reconnecting Eurasia: U.S. Policy Interests and Recommendations
Date: May 12, 9:00 am
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2^nd Floor Conference Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC

In January 2014 the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program launched the Eurasia Initiative. The first fruits of this project include a series of reports on Central Asia in a Reconnecting Eurasia. The decision to initiate these activities with Central Asia stemmed from a concern that the drawdown of U.S. and allied troops from Afghanistan would augur declining U.S. interest. For U.S. policymakers, turning away from Central Asia now would be a serious miscalculation. The five states of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) are located at the heart of the Eurasian landmass, in close proximity to four of Washington’s biggest foreign policy challenges: Afghanistan/Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and China. For that reason alone, the United States has a strong interest in developing economic and security ties with the states of Central Asia, and doing so in a way that is no longer driven by the exigencies of the war in Afghanistan, but is responsive to the needs and interests of the region itself, as well as enduring U.S. interests.

Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging U.S.-China Rivalry
Date: May 12, 10:00 am
Location: Brookings Institution, Saul/Zilkha Room, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

The prospect of a lasting U.S.-China security rivalry preoccupies policy makers and scholars alike. In a major new volume, “Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging U.S.-China Rivalry” (Georgetown University Press, 2015), Lyle Goldstein of the U.S. Naval War College contends that both countries have failed to pursue creative approaches that could limit the potential for such rivalry and enable a more cooperative global and regional future. Drawing on a wide array of Chinese sources and on the history of Sino-American relations over the past two centuries, Professor Goldstein proposes ten “cooperation spirals” that would enable lasting accommodation between both countries.

By exploring the possibilities of defusing long-standing geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, Professor Goldstein contends that future Sino-American relations can diverge significantly from widely held assessments in international relations theory and in foreign policy circles. His remarks will be followed by commentaries from two prominent U.S. policy practitioners and questions from the audience.

Copies of the book will be available for purchase at the event.

Clear and Present Danger: Confronting the Cyber Threat from Russia and China
Date: May 12, 10:30 am
Location: Hudson Institute, 1015 15^th Street NW, 6^th Floor, Washington DC

In early April, Russian cyber hackers penetrated unclassified networks at the White House and seized the Secret Service’s daily schedule for the president. Less than a week later, U.S. cybersecurity firm FireEye revealed that Chinese hackers have waged a decade-long cyber espionage campaign across South East Asia. Current and former FBIdirectors have expressed certainty that all large companies have been hacked by the Chinese and all of the White House networks have been infiltrated by Russian and Chinese hackers.

Every month brings alarming evidence that Russia and China are expanding their cyberattacks in the U.S. and throughout the world, particularly in Asia. On May 12th, former Congressman Mike Rogers, past chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and current Hudson distinguished fellow, will join Senior Fellow Arthur Herman for a conversation on the scope of the threat and how the U.S. should respond.

As member and then chair of the House Intelligence Committee, Congressman Mike Rogers has followed America’s cyberwar with China and Russia for more than a decade. Arthur Herman, author of Freedom’s Forge: How American Business Produced Victory in World War II, has written several articles on cyberwarfare and cyber strategy.

Economic Interdependence and War
Date: May 12, 12:00 pm
Location: CATO Institute, Hayek Auditorium, 1000 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

Debates over economic interdependence and war are centuries old. Liberals have argued that interdependence creates interests on both sides of dyads that help prevent war. Realists have argued that the “high politics” of war and peace are rarely driven by the “low politics” of commerce. Dale Copeland’s new book offers a more supple, less categorical judgment. According to Copeland, leaders’ expectations of the future trade environment determine how economic interdependence influences the prospects of war and peace. Please join us for a discussion with other leading scholars on the subject—one that carries heavy implications for the future of U.S.-China relations, in particular.

A Step Towards Justice: Current Accountability Options for Crimes Under International Law Committed in Syria
Date: May 12, 2:00 pm
Location: American Bar Association, 1050 Connecticut Ave #400, Washington DC

As the Syrian conflict continues with no end in sight, both Syrians and the international community have called for the establishment of mechanisms tohold perpetrators of atrocities accountable, deter war crimes and human rights abuses, and achieve justice for victims. However, while certain mechanisms may be available in theory, they may not be feasible or desirable options in the current context due to the potentially harmful impacts they may have on long term prospects for Syria’s transitional justice and accountability process.

To examine such options, the Syria Justice and Accountability Centre (SJAC) and the Ceasefire Centre for Civilian Rights have collaborated on a report that explores the current feasibility and potential impacts of international, hybrid, and foreign accountability options for Syria. The report also outlines ethical and practical challenges of pursuing these options prior to the end of the conflict. The analysis is particularly relevant regarding jurisdictions that are seeking to use their domestic law or international legal principles to prosecute alleged perpetrators located in Syria and abroad.

The report, A Step towards Justice: Current Accountability Options for Crimes Under International Law Committed in Syria, provides valuable perspectives for Syrians, justice practitioners, and the policy community. A panel discussion, hosted by the American Bar Association (ABA) Center for Human Rights, will delve into practical implications and considerations of pursuing justice options now.

Human Rights and North Korea’s Overseas Laborers: Dilemmas and Policy Changes
Date: May 12, 2:00 pm
Location: Korea Economic Institute, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC

For more than 70 years, the North Korean state has been exporting its laborers overseas in an effort to secure ample amounts of foreign currency for its nuclear and missile development programs. As a result, thousands of North Korean laborers work excessive hours, in dangerous conditions, and only receive a fraction of their legal salaries. Therefore it is imperative that this issue is brought to the attention of the international community in order to bring more light to the issue by providing new facts and professional analysis.

With this goal in mind, the Database Center for North Korean Human Rights (NKDB) and the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) are co-hosting a conference on the human rights conditions of North Korean laborers. NKDB researchers, KEI staff and other prominent North Korean and human rights specialists will gather together for presentation and discussion of the severe labor rights and basic human rights violations faced by North Korean laborers overseas. Additional information will be provided by a North Korean defector, who worked for about 2 years overseas, and will share his witness testimony with the audience.

RSVP here.

Minsk: Between East and West
Date: May 12, 6:00 pm
Location: German Marshall Fund, 1744 R Street NW, Washington DC

Situated to the North of Ukraine and sandwiched between the EU and Russia, Belarus has long felt pressures from Moscow. The survival of Alexander Lukashenko’s dictatorship and questions surrounding Belarus’ relative political independence are central to government actions and civil society efforts over the coming years. After the failure of the first Minsk Protocol in September, Belarus once again hosted a four-way peace summit in which the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany agreed to a package of measures in order to alleviate fighting in the Donbas region of Ukraine. As a result of the Minsk peace summit, Belarus has experienced a modest increase in international recognition. However, Belarus continues to face internal challenges including political suppression and growing economic inequality, as a product of an ever repressive political regime. How will Minsk reconcile its new international attention with continuing social, economic, and political threats? How will Minsk’s relationship with the European Union affect its historical relationship with Moscow? What does the Ukrainian crisis mean for Belarus’ security priorities?

May 13, 2015

Peacebuilding and Democracy in a Turbulent World
Date: May 13, 9:00 am
Location: United States Institute of Peace

iFarm Pakistan: Food Security, Innovation, and Commercialization
Date: May 13, 9:30 am
Location: Atlantic Council

Before and After Dayton: Bosnia’s Past and Its European Future
Date: May 13, 10:00 am
Location: Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

May 14, 2015

Putin’s Russia: How it Rose, How it is Maintained, and How it Might End
Date: May 14, 9:15 am
Location: American Enterprise Institute

Workshop on Intersection of Radiological Security and Public Health
Date: May 14, 1:30 pm
Location: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and Stanley Foundation

Wake Up, Pakistan
Date: May 14, 3:00 pm
Location: The Century Foundation

Cybersecurity for Small Businesses II
Date: May 14, 4:00 pm
Location: Washington Network Group

May 15, 2015

Internal Displacement in Ukraine: Assessing the National Response
Date: May 15, 10:00 am
Location: Brookings Institution

Threats to the U.S. Energy Renaissance
Date: May 15, 12:00 pm
Location: Cato Institute

Pandora Report 5.3.15

May 3, 2015May 4, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in Pandora Report

Over the past two weeks I’ve learned an important lesson which I would like to share with you: moving the same week you leave a job which is the week before the semester ends and you start a new job is too many things at the same time! Please excuse the lack of a weekly wrap-up last weekend—I was moving an apartment full of boxes which I am currently surrounded by. This weekend we look at antibiotic resistance in isolated societies and the eradication of rubella in the Americas plus other stories you may have missed.

Have a great week!

Tribe Isolated from Modern Societies for 11,000 Years Carries Antibiotic Resistant Genes

Findings published in the Science Advances journal describe the Yanomami Amerindians, who live in a remote, mountainous area of southern Venezuela and have been isolated from other societies for more than 11,000 years and yet still carry antibiotic resistant genes. This finding suggests that the human body may have carried the ability to resist antibiotics long before they became the overprescribed medicine they are today.

Design & Trend—“Thousands of years prior to the use of antibiotics to fight infection, soil bacteria began to produce natural antibiotics to kill competitors. The microbes evolved similar defenses to protect themselves from the soil bacteria. Researchers believe this was likely done by acquiring resistance genes from the producers themselves through a process known as horizontal gene transfer.”

Rubella Has Been Eliminated from the Americas

Joining the ranks of polio and smallpox, the Pan American Health Organization, the CDC, Unicef, and the United Nations Foundation announced this week that Rubella (also known as German Measles) has been eradicated in the Americas. The last case was confirmed in Argentina in 2009.Each year, approximately 120,000 children worldwide are born with severe birth defects that can be attributed to the disease.

The Science Times—“The Americas region is the first region to eliminate rubella. The European region, which includes Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia, hopes to be next, according to the World Health Organization.

Some regions are still not close enough to set firm target dates, so there is no chance that the disease will be eliminated worldwide before 2020, said Dr. Susan E. Reef, team lead for rubella at the CDC’s global immunization division, who joined in the announcement.

Stories You May Have Missed

So, just how many nuclear weapons does North Korea have? The Wall Street Journal provides estimates from the U.S. and China.
Fake and substandard drugs are responsible for tens of thousands of deaths globally each year and threatens efforts to combat malaria, TB, HIV and other conditions. This can also affect medicines for cancer and cardiovascular disease.
Two of the most recent advocates for vaccination are S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy and Elmo. Yes, Elmo from Sesame Street!
April 22 marked the 100 year anniversary of the Battle of Flanders Fields, the first time chemical weapons were used in modern warfare. This led to the Geneva protocol in 1925, which prohibited the use of the weapons, and the Chemical Weapons Convention in 1993, which prohibited the use, development, production, testing and stockpiling of the weapons.
According to a new study, fewer than 18% of New York taxi drivers got their flu vaccine this year, which puts the cab-riding public at risk. This is well below the 39% vaccination rate for adults in the United States.
Cholera poses a large risk to earthquake ravaged Nepal. The disease is endemic and makeshift camps with poor sanitation create the potential for outbreaks of this and other water borne diseases.
A new experimental Ebola drug is matched exactly to the West African strain that has infected more than 26,000 and killed more than 10,000 people over the last year. The drug is made by a Canadian company named Tekmira.

Image Credit: Juan Tello

2016 NDAA: Helicopters, Counters for Unconventional Warfare, and a Bunch of Ships

April 27, 2015April 28, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in News

By Greg Mercer

Every fiscal year, Congress passes the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a piece of comprehensive legislation that funds the Department of Defense and the national security programs operated by the Department of Energy. Since the military is extraordinarily expensive to maintain, and Congress famously “holds the purse strings”, the NDAA is a catalyst for major changes and reforms, and the process of authoring and passing it can tell us a lot about the gap between Congressional and military priorities. The NDAA is going through the House markup process (House first, then Senate, because it’s a financial bill), with subcommittee markups taking place this week and the Full Committee Markup taking place Wednesday, April 29 (Rayburn House Office Building Room 2118 at 10 AM if you’re really interested). The process has already highlighted some trends that will have a major impact in FY16.

Defense News reports that the Armed Services Emerging Threats and Capabilities subcommittee has requested that the Pentagon replace some helicopters. The subcommittee requested that the Pentagon create a plan to replace existing AH-6 and MH-6 “Little Bird” helicopters within 90 days of the NDAA’s passage and to indicate how they plan to do so with “anticipated funding requirements… for development and procurement of an A/MH-6 replacement platform.” A/MH-6s are commonly used by special operations forces, so it’s no surprise that the Emerging Threats and Capabilities subcommittee would be concerned about the future of Special Forces aviation.

The subcommittee also notes that they are concerned about the “unconventional warfare capabilities and threats” posed by Russia and Iran. The proposed legislation defines this as: “…activities conducted to enable a resistance movement of insurgency to coerce, disrupt, or overthrow a government or occupying power by operating through or with an underground, auxiliary, or guerrilla force in a denied area.” Clearly, this refers to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and Russian aggression, as well as the involvement of Iran in combatting ISIL forces in Iraq, which has seen Iran training and equipping as many as 30,000 troops and deploying missiles.

Finally, the subcommittee touches upon a trendy, favorite topic, expressing concern about DOD’s cyber capabilities. It requests a briefing on the process of identifying and remedying current vulnerabilities by February 1, 2016, and a briefing on the DOD’s cyber mission force and whether it can meet its intelligence collection and analysis needs but November 1, 2016.

Elsewhere, Defense News also reports that the Navy’s FY16 budget requests have generally enjoyed support from the Seapower and Projection Forces subcommittee. The subcommittee approved requests for building three new Littoral Combat Ships (a program which has seen controversy in the past), two destroyers, two attack submarines, the completion of a new amphibious ship, continued construction on two new aircraft carriers, procurement of new Tomahawk cruise missiles, and the development of an unmanned, carrier-based jet.

The NDAA will remain dynamic and likely controversial as it works its way through the legislative process. Its position at the center of DOD’s operations for the upcoming year makes the NDAA perennially attractive to those in Congress and the Administration who seek reform or procurement changes. I’ll try to offer more as the process continues.

Image Credit: U.S. Navy

Week in DC: Events

April 27, 2015July 15, 2016 by juliadhomstad, posted in Events, Week In DC

April 27, 2015

Insurgency in the Middle East and Its Threat to the United States
Date: April 27, 9:00 am
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, Lindner Family Commons, Room 602, 1957 E Street NW, Washington DC

Event Schedule:
9:00-9:15: Welcome
9:15-10:30: “Understanding Civil War, Insurgency and Terrorism in Today’s Middle East”

Jon B. Alterman, Senior Vice President, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham, Associate Professor, University of Maryland
Dafna H. Rand, Deputy Director of Studies, Center for a New American Security
Joseph K. Young, Associate Professor, American University

10:45-12:00: “Understanding the Threat to the United States and Europe from Returning Jihadists”

Tricia Bacon, Professorial Lecturer, American University
Dorle Hellmuth, Assistant Professor, Catholic University
Christopher A. Kojm, Visiting Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, GWU
Thomas M. Sanderson, Codirector, Transnational Threats Project, CSIS (invited)

RSVP here.

The Future Postponed
Date: April 27, 9:00 am
Location: Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, AAAS Auditorium, 1200 New York Ave NW, Washington DC

MIT, led by VP for Research Maria Zuber and former Science Dean Marc Kastner and four faculty, will come to Washington for an event hosted by AAAS (and cohosted by AAU, APLU, The Science Coalition and ITIF) to present a major new MIT report called “The Future Postponed” on April 27th.

Ebola Outbreak and Response: Assessment of Initial U.S. Actions
Date: April 27, 12:00 pm
Location: Heritage Foundation, Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington DC

The 2013-2014 outbreak of Ebola in West Africa ravaged the countries of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, shocked the international community and claimed over 10,000 lives. As an aggressive and extremely lethal disease, Ebola spread quickly and demonstrated that there is no such thing as “just in time preparedness,” once again reminding the international community vulnerable regions remain highly susceptible to pandemics and other various public health crises.

The United States is not immune. We were reminded of this reality once cases of Ebola were detected domestically. In the aftermath of the West African outbreak and international spread, The Heritage Foundation established a task force to identify observations and findings and offer recommendations for how the U.S. can better respond to future crises. This report examines the U.S. response to Ebola in West Africa as well as domestically and offers recommendations aimed at improving the quality, speed and efficiency of future American-led responses to natural disasters, pandemics and acts of bioterrorism.

Join our panelists for a discussion on the report’s findings and specifically how to improve the United States’ ability to respond to future public health crises.

Click here to attend in person or watch live online.

Countdown to Zero Day: Stuxnet and the Launch of the World’s First Digital Weapon
Date: April 27, 6:00 pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, Room 602, 1957 E Street NW, Washington DC

The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) and the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs invite you to an event titled “Countdown to Zero Day: Stuxnet and the Launch of the World’s First Digital Weapon,” with Kim Zetter, an award-winning journalist for Wired, who has been covering cybersecurity for more than a decade.

In January 2010, inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency noticed that centrifuges at an Iranian uranium enrichment plant were failing at an unprecedented rate. The cause was a complete mystery. Six months later, a computer security firm in Belarus stumbled upon a virus infecting computers in Iran. It took four months of analysis, but eventually researchers realized they had discovered the world’s first digital weapon. Stuxnet, the weapon, was unlike any other virus or worm built before. Rather than simply hijacking targeted computers or stealing information from them, it escaped the digital realm to wreak physical destruction on equipment controlled by computers — in this case, centrifuges at a nuclear facility in Iran that were being used to enrich uranium.

At this event, Zetter will tell the story behind the cyber virus that sabotaged Iran’s nuclear efforts and explain how its existence has ushered in a new age of warfare.

RSVP here.

April 28, 2015

U.S. Civil Drone Policy
Date: April 28, 10:00 am
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC

The development of new technologies for unmanned flight and microelectronics in the last two decades has led to an explosion in civil unmanned aerial systems (UAS, commonly known as drones) activity in the U.S. From a few hobbyists flying small, technically limited model aircraft in the 1990s, the field has grown to thousands of individuals and corporations looking to employ a variety of UAS models for security awareness, disaster response, logistics and delivery, agriculture, communications, spectral and thermal analysis, and aerial photography, among many other functions.

CSIS will hold a public event focusing on practical policy strategies to manage commercial, public and private UAS in U.S. airspace, while supporting innovation, and protecting privacy and personal freedom.

Defeating the Jihadists in Syria: Competition before Confrontation
Date: April 28, 11:00 am
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15^th Street NW, 12^th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

Since August 2014, the US-led coalition air campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has successfully inflicted casualties on ISIS and weakened its oil revenues. In a new Atlantic Council report, “Defeating the Jihadists in Syria: Competition before Confrontation,” Faysal Itani acknowledges these positive yet limited results, but also presents the unintended consequences of this air campaign and US policy options given local Syrian realities.

Itani details how coalition efforts accelerated the rise of the Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate, and the near-collapse of nationalist rebel forces. He proposes a US strategy to assist nationalist insurgents to defeat ISIS and the Nusra Front–by enabling them to compete with and contain jihadist groups, and ultimately confront them. Please join us for a conversation about the author’s findings with expert commentators.

Personal Stories from the Frontlines of War and Peace
Date: April 28, 2:00 pm
Location: United States Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington DC

From Iraq to Burma, from Peru to Yemen, from Nicaragua to Nepal, the personal stories of widows, children, workers, and soldiers often are lost in the cacophony of war. Please join the U.S. Institute of Peace on Tuesday, April 28, for a discussion and launch of “Speaking Their Peace: Personal Stories from the Frontlines of War and Peace,” a book that tells the extraordinary stories of “ordinary” people from eleven conflict zones. NPR’s Michel Martin moderates a discussion with the book’s author, Colette Rausch, and two members of the team that captured these memorable interviews.

With a foreword by the Dalai Lama, the book collects interviews with 80 ordinary citizens – a taxi driver, a nun, a machinery worker, a mother — from conflict zones all over the world. Their accounts illuminate the intensely personal experience of war, the uncertain transition to peace, and the aspirations that survive despite it all.

National Public Radio’s Michel Martin will moderate a discussion with Rausch, the acting vice president for Governance, Law and Society at USIP, and Najla Elmangoush and Khitam Al-Khaghani, who have lived and worked in conflict zones and were a part of the team that conducted interviews. A photo exhibit will feature images taken during Rausch’s travels and her meetings with interviewees.

Audience members also will have an opportunity to record their own 30-second messages of what peace means to them for a “Speak Your Peace” video. The event will be followed by a reception and book-signing session. Learn more about “Speaking Their Peace” and read excerpts from the book. Join the conversation on Twitter with #SpeakPeace.

Govern Like Us: U.S. Expectations of Poor Governments
Date: April 28, 4:30 pm
Location: Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Rome Auditorium, 1740 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

Thirteen years after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, the project to transform the way Afghanistan is governed has largely failed. Some think the U.S. and its partners did not try hard enough. Some blame Afghan elites for their corruption and lack of political will. Some continue to press for reforms to build a government that provides public goods and services to everyone, under the rule of law, and subject to democratic accountability. But is this a possibility for the poorest governments? Dr. Thomas will discuss her new book.

For more information or to RSVP email here.

April 29, 2015

Deterrence Instability and Nuclear Weapons in South Asia
Date: April 29, 12:30 pm
Location: The Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, 8^th Floor, Washington DC

Deterrence in South Asia is becoming less stable with the passage of time and an increase in nuclear weapon capabilities. India and Pakistan have not addressed basic issues in dispute, nor have they agreed to set them aside. In 2015, the two countries are no closer to resolving their differences than they were seven years ago, after members of Lashkar-e-Taiba carried out attacks against Mumbai landmarks.

The Stimson Center is publishing a collection of essays, “Deterrence Instability and Nuclear Weapons in South Asia,” edited by Michael Krepon, Joshua T. White, Julia Thompson, and Shane Mason. These essays by Manoj Joshi, Shashank Joshi, Michael Krepon, Jeffrey D. McCausland, Rasul Bakhsh Rais, Sarang Shidore, and Joshua T. White and Kyle Deming clarify how doctrinal, strategic, and technological developments contribute to growing deterrence instability in South Asia. Taken together, these chapters point to serious challenges associated with increased nuclear dangers unless leaders in India and Pakistan work to resolve their grievances, or consider measures to mitigate their costly and risky strategic competition.

RSVP here.

Subcommittee Hearing: ISIS: Defining the Enemy
Date: April 29, 2:00 pm
Location: U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2172 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington DC

The Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade will host two panels to discuss ISIS. Panel I will include the Honorable Robert Ford, Senior Fellow at The Middle East Institute and Former U.S. Ambassador to Syria; and Walid Phares, Ph.D., Co-Secretary General of the Transatlantic Parliamentary Group on Counterterrorism.

Panel II will include Ms. Maryam Rajavi, President-Elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (Appearing via teleconference).

Subcommittee Hearing: Progress and Challenges in the Western Balkans
Date: April 29, 2:00 pm
Location: U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2200 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington DC

The Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats will hear two panels of testimony related to the Western Balkans. Panel I will include Mr. Hoyt Brian Yee, Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs of the U.S. Department of State, and Ms. Susan Fritz, Acting Assistant Administrator in the Europe and Eurasia Bureau at the U.S. Agency for International Development.

Panel II will include Mr. Ivan Vejvoda, Senior Vice President of Programs at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and The Honorable Joseph J. DioGuardi, President of the Albanian American Civic League
(Former Member of Congress).

The U.S.-China Relationship in an Evolving Global Economic Order
Date: April 29, 3:00 pm
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, 2^nd Floor Conference Room, Washington DC

Recent developments such as the establishment of new institutions like the AIIB have raised broader questions about the U.S. and China’s roles in global economic governance. What are the problems in the global economy that the U.S. and China agree and disagree on? To what extent are existing institutions addressing those problems and where is there a need for new approaches? Can the U.S. and China find a way to work cooperatively on these issues, which will have a major impact on the prosperity of both countries and the rest of the world? Please join us for a stimulating discussion of these issues with top experts from China and the U.S. The event will finish with a keynote address by Under Secretary Nathan Sheets, the senior official at the U.S. Treasury responsible for the S&ED.

RSVP here.

April 30, 2015

In Search of a Syria Strategy
Date: April 30, 12:00 pm
Location: Cato Institute, Hayek Auditorium, 1000 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

The rise of ISIS and the spread of the Syrian civil war to Iraq have led to renewed discussions of U.S. intervention. Though Washington is regularly bombing ISIS targets, there is little in the way of viable on-the-ground support, and a much-vaunted U.S. training campaign for moderates has had difficulty finding acceptable trainees. Many of America’s allies are complicit in funding extremist groups within Syria, even if they oppose ISIS itself, while the White House continues to equivocate on whether it will negotiate with the Assad regime. America’s goals in Syria are unclear, and there is a broad consensus that the current U.S. approach — loosely defined as ‘degrading and destroying’ ISIS — is murky at best.

What is the United States trying to accomplish in Syria? Are its goals achievable with current strategies? Join our panelists as they discuss how we reached this point, and the extent to which the U.S. should or should not be involved in the ongoing conflict.

Subcommittee Hearing: Regional Impact of U.S. Policy Towards Iraq and Syria
Date: April 30, 2:00 pm
Location: U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2172 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington DC

The Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa will hear testimony from Seth G. Jones, Ph.D., Director, International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation, General Jack Keane, USA, Retired, Chairman of the Board at the Institute for the Study of War, and Tamara Cofman Wittes, Ph.D., Director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings.

May 1, 2015

Strengthening Fragile States: Causes and Solutions
Date: May 1, 2:00 pm
Location: Center for International Private Enterprise, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, Suite 700, Washington DC

Fragile states drive a disproportionate share of the world’s instability, violence and poverty. People living in these countries suffer from weak or dysfunctional institutions, social divisions, corruption, poor governance, a lack of protection of rights, and large informal sectors. These problems not only cause instability within a country, but create tensions regionally and sometimes globally.

Join us May 1, 2-4pm, as the Center for International Private Enterprise hosts a discussion on Strengthening Fragile States: Causes and Solutions. Our panel will discuss the roots of fragile states and how to strengthen them. Specifically, they will discuss:

Lessons learned from the Arab Spring.
Root causes of fragile states.
How to foster institutions and improve governance through transparency and accountability in the public and private sectors.
Comparing fragile states with functional ones.
The importance of building democratic institutions.
Spillover effects regionally from fragile states.
Private sector participation in the democratic process to strengthen states.
Corruption and fragile states.

Freedom

April 21, 2015April 21, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in News

By Erik Goepner

Promoting democracy, particularly in Muslim-majority countries, has been a cornerstone of America’s war on terror since the early days after 9/11. To many Americans, including our policy makers, democracy is virtually synonymous with liberty and freedom. Not everyone shares this perspective. Some view democracy as incompatible with freedom and liberty.

After perceived initial successes in Afghanistan, President Bush frequently spoke of America’s responsibility to help free other peoples.[1] In 2003, he spoke of a “new policy, a forward strategy of freedom in the Middle East.”[2] The President’s State of the Union addresses delivered during his two presidencies reached a crescendo in 2005, when he mentioned “democracy,” “liberty,” “freedom” or some variant thereof 46 times. The following year, the White House’s National Security Strategy celebrated the “extraordinary progress in the expansion of freedom, democracy, and human dignity” that had had occurred over the past four years in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere.

Such concepts are interwoven throughout our nation’s history, whether declaring our independence or stating that all men are created equal and endowed by their Creator with the unalienable rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. We elect our leaders. We have the right to assemble and to protest. We have an active press and we enjoy the right to worship (or not) as we please. Give me liberty or give me death. Live free or die. It is no wonder, then, that for Americans, the words democracy, liberty, and freedom may often substitute one for another.

Other perspectives, however, while endorsing the concepts of liberty and freedom, reject democracy. Sayyid Qutb, an early member of the Muslim Brotherhood, outlined such a perspective in his provocative book, Milestones. Written in 1964, two years before the Egyptian government executed him, Qutb argued that freedom and liberty were antithetical to democracy. He asserted that Americans were ignorant and rebellious, as evidenced by our legislating of rules for collective behavior and our perceived right to “choose a way of life…without regard to what Allah has prescribed.” God, he said, is the Regent, while the faithful followers are to be his vice regents. How, then, he argued, could the vice regent legislate on issues that the Regent had already decreed as good or bad? For Qutb, Western democracy was the enslavement of one man over another. By encouraging the vice regent to elect human leaders who would then fashion laws in opposition to the will of the Regent, democracy would keep the people in darkness. Only the equivalent of a Muslim theocracy, he argued, offered people the opportunity to be truly free and sufficiently liberated to pursue life.

Polls suggest a majority of Muslims prefer democracy, seeing it as complementary to freedom and liberty. Recent democratic victories, however, for groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas raise interesting dilemmas. Some argue that, absent pre-existing democratic institutions and culture, democratic elections can be used effectively by illiberal groups to trap their countries into undemocratic futures, while others see a decidedly brighter short-term future for Islamic democracy.

Image Credit: Bluszczokrzew

[1] See Bob Woodward’s Plan of Attack.
[2] See Mark Katz’ Leaving without Losing.

Week in DC: Events

April 19, 2015July 15, 2016 by juliadhomstad, posted in Events, Week In DC

April 20, 2015

Operation United Assistance: The U.S. Military’s Relief Efforts in West Africa
Date: April 20, 8:30am
Location: The Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, 8^th Floor, Washington DC

The spread of Ebola through West Africa was a vivid demonstration of the outsized threat global health crises pose to international stability and security. The lessons learned from the earliest days of the outbreak point us toward improving our response to the next crisis. High among those lessons must be a clearer understanding of how — and how quickly — assistance could move to the worst stricken regions. The absence of a deliberate planning process for transportation and logistics proved an enormous barrier to effectively deploy essential equipment and personnel where it was most needed.

The ability of the international community, individual governments, private companies, and civil society to rally and stop the spread of the disease was largely due to the deployment of the US military to West Africa to coordinate response logistics, training, and engineering support, in support of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Among lessons learned from the Ebola outbreak is that building capacity for a coordinated response to global health emergencies is essential to preventing and combatting these threats.

Please join us at the Stimson Center for a discussion on strengthening global health response with US Army Major General Gary Volesky, the commander of the US military’s efforts to combat Ebola in West Africa.

RSVP here.

Politics of a Nuclear Deal: Former U.S. & Iranian Officials Debate
Date: April 20, 9:30am
Location: United States Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington DC

Iran and the world’s six majors powers now face a June 30 deadline for converting a blueprint into a final nuclear deal. A unique panel of former U.S. and Iranian officials will assess the status of the talks and the political dynamics that will determine the fate of any agreement in Washington and Tehran. Join us for the discussion on April 20 at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

This event is the fourth in the Iran Forum series hosted by a coalition of eight think tanks, including USIP, the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, RAND, the Arms Control Association, the Center for a New American Security, the Stimson Center, Partnership for a Secure America, and the Ploughshares Fund. Join the conversation on Twitter with #IranDeal.

Implementing Cooperative Threat Reduction: The Private Sector’s Role in CTR
Date: April 20, 12:00pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington DC

Please join Dr. Ighor Uzhinsky of Orbital ATK for a lunchtime discussion of the private sector’s engagement with the implementation of the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) Program, also known as the Nunn-Lugar Program. CTR was created for the purpose of securing and dismantling weapons of mass destruction and their associated infrastructure in the former states of the Soviet Union. Founded by Senators Sam Nunn (D-GA) and Richard Lugar (R-IN) through the passage of the Soviet Threat Reduction Act in November 1991, the program aimed to address the large nuclear arsenals inherited by former Soviet states Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan after the Soviet Union’s collapse. Dr. Uzhinsky will focus on the experience of the private sector in implementing CTR through examination of several cooperative programs in the areas of defense conversion and dismantlement of strategic missile delivery systems.

This event is part of the Nuclear Policy Talks series. Lunch will be provided.

RSVP here.

Ukrainian Energy Reforms and European Gas Supply
Date: April 20, 2:00pm
Location: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1^st Floor Conference Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington DC

The CSIS Energy and National Security Program is pleased to host Alan Riley, Professor of Law at the City Law School with City University in London, to discuss the status of reforms to the Ukrainian energy sector and to provide an update on the European Union’s antitrust case against Gazprom. Following the ousting of Viktor Yanukovych in early 2014, a pro-reform and pro-Western government emerged. Despite the Russian annexation of Crimea and ensuing conflict in eastern Ukraine, much hope is placed in the new Ukrainian government’s ability to institute wide-ranging domestic reforms, particularly in the energy sector. Nonetheless, concrete, effectual changes have yet to materialize.

Simultaneously, the EU is looking to move ahead with its antitrust case against Russian gas giant Gazprom anti-competitive business practices. A well-known authority on both subjects, Professor Riley will provide an overview of the progress being made and the hurdles undermining energy reform in Ukraine as well as the status of the antitrust proceedings against Gazprom. Following Mr. Riley’s presentation, Ambassador Richard Morningstar, Founding Director of the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, former Ambassador to the European Union and former Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy, will provide comments on the issues addressed.Edward Chow, Senior Fellow with the CSIS Energy and National Security Program, will moderate.

A Special Talks @ Pulitzer: Filmmaker Carl Gierstorfer and ‘The Rise of the Killer Virus’
Date: April 20, 5:00pm
Location: Pulitzer Center, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Suite 615, Washington DC

Ukrainian energy sector and to provide an update on the European Union’s antitrust case against Gazprom. Following the ousting of Viktor Yanukovych in early 2014, a pro-reform and pro-Western government emerged. Despite the Russian annexation of Crimea and ensuing conflict in eastern Ukraine, much hope is placed in the new Ukrainian government’s ability to institute wide-ranging domestic reforms, particularly in the energy sector. Nonetheless, concrete, effectual changes have yet to materialize.

Simultaneously, the EU is looking to move ahead with its antitrust case against Russian gas giant Gazprom anti-competitive business practices. A well-known authority on both subjects, Professor Riley will provide an overview of the progress being made and the hurdles undermining energy reform in Ukraine as well as the status of the antitrust proceedings against Gazprom. Following Mr. Riley’s presentation, Ambassador Richard Morningstar, Founding Director of the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, former Ambassador to the European Union and former Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy, will provide comments on the issues addressed. Edward Chow, Senior Fellow with the CSIS Energy and National Security Program, will moderate.

RSVP here.

April 21, 2015

New Counterterrorism Strategies in Pakistan
Date: April 21, 9:30am
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

Following the December 2014 terror attack on an army-run school in Peshawar that killed 150, 132 children among them, the Pakistan government issued a National Action Plan (NAP), its latest counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategy. With extremist violence claiming thousands of lives, cross-border attacks undermining security in neighboring Afghanistan, and the risk of a Pakistan-based terror attack on India simmering discontent, Islamabad’s efforts to combat terrorism are vital for both domestic security and regional stability. Samina Ahmed and Mark Schneider will discuss this latest approach and how NAP’s success or failure could shape Pakistan’s relations with India and Afghanistan, and impact U.S. national security interests in the region. Carnegie’s Frederic Grare will moderate.

The Syrian Humanitarian Crisis: What Is to Be Done?
Date: April 21, 9:30am
Location: Washington Court Hotel, Springwood Room, 525 New Jersey Ave NW, Washington DC

The Middle East Policy Council invites you and your colleagues to our 80^th Capitol Hill Conference. Live streaming of this event will begin at approximately 9:30 a.m. on Tuesday, April 21^st and conclude at noon. A questions and answers session will be held at the end of the proceedings. Refreshments will be served.

Watch live online here.

Current State of Syrian Refugees in Turkey
Date: April 21, 10:00am
Location: SETA Foundation at Washington DC, 1025 Connecticut Ave NW, Suite 1106, Washington DC

The civil war has driven 6.5 million Syrians from their country; nearly 2 million now reside in Turkey. While Turkish refugee camps have garnered much attention due to their quality, the majority of Syrian refugees reside outside the camps. In urban areas, the government, aid agencies and NGOs struggle to meet the needs of an-ever growing number of refugees. Please join us for a panel discussion on the refugee crisis in Turkey and its impact on social, political and economic dynamics in the country.

Is the American Century Over?
Date: April 21, 10:00am
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 6^th Floor Conference Room, Washington DC

Join us for a conversation with the author of Is the American Century Over?, Joseph S. Nye, as he argues that America’s superpower status may be tempered, but is definitely not over.

For more than a century, the United States has been the world’s most powerful state. Now some analysts predict that China will soon take its place. Does this mean that we are living in a post-American world? Will China’s rapid rise spark a new Cold War between the two titans?

In this compelling essay, world renowned foreign policy analyst, Joseph Nye, explains why the American century is far from over and what the U.S. must do to retain its lead in an era of increasingly diffuse power politics.

RSVP here.

Book Launch—Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Future
Date: April 21, 11:30am
Location: The Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC

Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future critically examines the key assumptions and driving forces behind today’s global nuclear nonproliferation activity. Please join author Henry Sokolski, Ambassador Robert Gallucci, and former Undersecretary of Defense Dov Zakheim for a luncheon and panel discussion to review findings from the book and discuss current trends in nuclear security.

RSVP here.

Military Balance 2015 Launch in Washington DC
Date: April 21, 2:00pm
Location: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2121 K Street NW, Suite 801, Washington DC

The US launch of The Military Balance 2015 will take place at IISS-US on April 21. The Military Balance 2015 contains region-by-region analysis of the major military and economic developments affecting defense and security policies, and the trade in weapons and other military equipment. Detailed entries describe the military capabilities of 171 countries, displaying key equipment inventories and defense economics. Comprehensive tables detail arms orders and deliveries, major training activities and international comparisons of defense expenditure and military personnel.

Building Peace in Libya: A Conversation with Wafa Bugaighis
Date: April 21, 3:00pm
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

As the conflict between Libya’s political factions drags on, its humanitarian and economic crisis deepens. Meanwhile, the Islamic State is exploiting the vacuum wrought by the fighting and the absence of coherent, capable institutions. What are the prospects for a ceasefire and the formation of an inclusive, sustainable government? Wafa Bugaighis, the charge d’affaires and highest-ranking diplomat at the Libyan Embassy in Washington, will offer her vision for ending the war and discuss how the international community can help rebuild Libya. Carnegie’s Frederic Wehrey will moderate.

Does Russian Nationalism Have a Future after Ukraine?
Date: April 21, 3:30pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 5^th Floor Conference Room, Washington DC

Russian nationalism has been the victim of what is the essential tragedy of the Russian people: the Russian state tried to become an empire before the Russian people became a nation, and as a result, at no point has the country been a nation state. And while pro-Kremlin radical nationalists are increasingly important in Russian politics, their nationalist agendas have been largely co-opted by the state. The speakers will discuss the crisis facing Russian nationalists and what the future may hold for them.

RSVP here.

Is Authoritarianism Staging a Comeback?
Date: April 21, 5:00pm
Location: Atlantic Council, 1030 15^th Street NW, 12^th Floor, West Tower, Washington DC

The past few years have marked the beginning of a tumultuous period for global governance. Across the world, we have seen threats to international order and a disruption of longstanding political norms and values as authoritarians get smarter and persist undeterred. With authoritarianism on the rise in many of the world’s most strategically important regions, new questions emerge regarding the diffusion of power, the rise of sometimes violent nonstate actors, and the future role of the nation-state. Developing an appropriate strategy for the advancement of human rights and the support of nonviolent civil resistance movements is thus proving to be one of the most challenging policy dilemmas for the United States and other democracies.

On April 21, the Atlantic Council will be hosting a public discussion of these challenges in recognition of the release of its forthcoming publication, Is Authoritarianism Staging a Comeback? This discussion will feature multiple leading experts on nonviolent civil resistance and authoritarian states, and will explore the range of issues and case-studies examined within this book of essays.

Atlantic Council CEO and President Mr. Frederick Kempe will begin by moderating a discussion on countering authoritarianism between Dr. Peter Ackerman, Dr. Paula Dobriansky, and Mr. Damon Wilson. This will be followed by a discussion of the issues raised in the book itself, featuring Adm. Dennis Blair (USN, Ret.), Dr. George A. Lopez, and Dr. Regine Spector, moderated by Dr. Mathew Burrows and Dr. Maria J. Stephan.

April 22, 2015

Examining U.S.-Israel Relations at a Time of Change in the Middle East
Date: April 22, 10:30am
Location: Center for American Progress, 1333 H St NW, 10^th Floor, Washington DC

The U.S.-Israel relationship has been a centerpiece of U.S. Middle East strategy and a main pillar of Israel’s national security strategy for decades. But political relations between the two countries during the past six years have seen some turbulence, even as security cooperation deepens and they continue to share common interests and values at a time of change and uncertainty in the Middle East.

On April 22, please join the Center for American Progress, the Center for a New American Security, and the Israel Institute to take stock of where we are at this crucial stage in U.S.-Israel relations, featuring two expert panels. The first panel will discuss the management of U.S.-Israel relations, and the second will focus on the main issues under discussion between the two states.

RSVP here to attend in person or watch live online.

April 23, 2015

Do Color Revolutions Really Happen?
Date: April 23, 12:00pm
Location: Elliott School of International Affairs, Voesar Conference Room, 1957 E Street NW, Suite 412, Washington DC

The current crisis in Ukraine is firmly rooted in the Orange Revolution and in associated Western beliefs that Ukraine could be wrested from no additional costs Russia and included in Western trade and security structures. The tragic outcome reflects more than the West’s shallow understanding of the dangers involved in pushing Russia into a value-based security order. Even more profoundly, it illustrates how poorly social science has grasped the preconditions for implementing profound institutional change via outside agency. Given the uniformly negative experience of a host of different “color revolutions,” it may be time to rethink the Western agenda of fixing things.

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The Authoritarian Resurgence: China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela
Date: April 23, 12:00pm
Location: National Endowment for Democracy, 1025 F Street NW, Suite 800, Washington DC

Russia, Venezuela, China, and Saudi Arabia are among the most influential authoritarian states that are seeking to reshape the international order. These regimes may disagree on many things, but they share the objective of obstructing the advance of democracy and weakening the influence of democratic principles in the world. The established democracies have been slow to recognize the increasingly determined challenge from today’s authoritarians, perhaps because they hope that these regimes will be undone by their flaws. But given the resilience that the authoritarians have displayed so far, it would be imprudent for the democracies to underestimate the seriousness of the dangers that they pose. Based on articles that appear in the January 2015 and April 2015 issues of the Journal of Democracy, Javier Corrales, Andrew J. Nathan, Lilia Shevtsova, and Frederic Wehrey will discuss the multifaceted challenges presented by these regimes.

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