How a Pandemic Would Spread Through Air Routes

We’ve all heard that pathogens “don’t respect boundaries” and are “international”, both of which are absolutely true. However, if you’ve every wondered how, and how fast, researchers at Humboldt University in Berlin may have some answers. Check out their interesting model simulation below:

From io9 “Dirk Brockmann, a Professor at the Institute for Theoretical Biology at Humboldt University Berlin, and Dirk Helbing, Chair of Sociology, in particular of Modeling and Simulation, at ETH Zürich, published their paper “The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena” in the 13 December 2013 issue of Science. Considering the spread of H1N1 in 2009 and SARS in 2003, Brockmann and Helbing modeled how epidemics might spread through highly connected networks, notably air transit networks. Their models rely on a concept they term “effective distance,” which uses how locations are connected rather than their geographic distance to predict the spread of disease. The Brockmann Lab website explains:

‘It turns out that based on this principle we can define an effective distance related to the traffic that connects places for every pair of nodes in the network. This way we extract all nodes from their geographic embedding and represent them based on effective distance.'”

(thanks to GMU Biodefense’s Adjunct Professor Michael Dennis for passing this along)

Three New Cases of MERS, 1 Fatality

 

A 73-year-old Saudi man is the most recent MERS fatality, bringing the total in Saudi Arabia up to 56. To date, there have been 136 cases of the virus globally. Saudi Arabia also reported three new cases of the virus, including two foreign health workers, and a 53-year-old Saudi man.

Koblentz on Syrian Chemical Weapons Destruction

Dr. Koblentz was quoted in a Voice of America article on the destruction of Syrian chemical weapons.

From Voice of America, OPCW Plan for Destroying Syrian Chemical Weapons Complex, Chancy –  “Gregory Koblentz, Deputy Director of the Biodefense Program at Virginia’s George Mason University, says the initial phase of the plan involves transporting the chemicals overland across Syria. ‘The chemicals are going to be packaged in Syria and then shipped overland to the city of Latakia, which is a major port on the Mediterranean,’ Koblentz said. ‘And then the chemicals will be picked up by Norwegian and Danish ships, which will then transport them to Italy.’ There, the chemicals will be loaded on an American ship which has been outfitted with equipment to neutralize the chemicals. Koblentz says that while the first stage of the plan is risky because it involves transporting chemicals across a country at war, he is optimistic the chemicals will make it to Latakia securely. ‘Up until now, there’ve not been any significant reports that the conflict has interfered with the consolidation of the chemicals and the OPCW’s actions on the ground,’ Koblentz said. ‘So while the route from Damascus to Latakia might be somewhat troublesome, the rebels so far have cooperated with the OPCW, and it’s in their interest to have these chemicals to get out of the country.'”

(image: DoD photo by Navy Photographer’s Mate 3rd Class Kristopher Wilson)

The Pandora Report 12.20.13

Highlights include more pneumonic plague in Madagascar, H1N1  in Texas, Chikungunya in the Caribbean, H7N9 in Hong Kong, and MERS in Saudi Arabia. Happy Friday, and a very happy holiday season to everyone.

Pneumonic Plague Cases Up in Madagascar
The latest numbers in the plague outbreak in Madagascar suggest as many as  17 of 43 cases may be pneumonic plague – the highly virulent, highly infectious, transmissible person-to-person form of the traditional bacteria. As we’ve mentioned before, the case fatality rate for pneumonic plague is 100% unless antibiotics are prescribed in the first 24 hours following infection. However, as the disease’s incubation period can be up to three days, and as it often presents initially with flu-like symptoms, timely detection can be very challenging. We’ll keep you posted.

Madagascar-Tribune (originally in French) – ” 43 suspected cases of pneumonic plague and bubonic plague were detected Mandritsara since 20 November until 5 December 2013. 17 suspected cases of pneumonic plague were detected Analanjirofo. 15 cases of bubonic plague have been recorded in the district of Ikongo. In the district of Tsiroanomandidy, 3 cases of bubonic plague have been suspected.”

Montgomery County, Texas: Mystery Illness Likely H1N1 Virus
A regional hospital in Texas has reported eight cases of an as yet diagnosed illness – of the eight, four patients have subsequently died. One of the remaining four patients has subsequently been diagnosed with H1N1The CDC is working with local health authorities to determine the pathogen in play.

Houston Chronicle – “Recent mystery deaths in Montgomery County could be attributed to the H1N1 virus. Conroe Regional Hospital this month reported eight cases of a mystery illness to the county’s public health department. Two of the patients tested negative for all flu viruses. Nichols-Contella said the 2013 influenza vaccine protects against the H1N1 virus. None of the patients who died had received a flu shot, the release said.”

Chikungunya Outbreak Grows In Caribbean
Chikungunya has struck the sunny Caribbean, with two cases reported to the WHO last week. Since the initial outbreak, a further 10 cases have emerged. Chikungunya is an Alphavirus, and is spread through arthropods, primarily mosquitoes. The outbreak on St. Martin signifies the first time the virus has appeared in the Western hemisphere. There was no international travel in the case histories of the patients involved. Fortunately, very few people understand better than epidemiologists the tendency of infectious diseases to spread with vigor, so surveillance systems are already in place.

NPR – “Except for a small number of imported cases each year, chikungunya has stayed out of the Americas until now. But U.S. health officials have been on the lookout for its arrival. The chikunguyna virus was discovered in 1955 by two scientists in Tanzania. ‘Microbes know no boundaries, and the appearance of chikungunya virus in the Western Hemisphere represents another threat to health security,’ CDC director Dr. Tom Frieden wrote in statement Wednesday. ‘CDC experts have predicted and prepared for its arrival for several years, and there are surveillance systems in place to help us track it.’ With about 9 million Americans traveling to the Caribbean each year, the CDC anticipates chikungunya will be a more frequent visitor to the U.S. in the next few years. One of the mosquitoes that carries the virus — the Asian tiger mosquito — is already a familiar pest in many parts of the U.S. during the summer.”

Two more H7N9 bird flu cases linked to Shenzhen’s Longgang district
Two individuals who lived or worked near the wet markets which tested positive for H7N9 last week have subsequently contracted the virus themselves. The two have been hospitalized and are in critical condition.  Again, the reemergence of the virus is consistent with expected seasonal patterns.

South China Morning Post – “Three patients who have contracted the H7N9 strain of bird flu had visited the Longgang district of Shenzhen, including the latest case announced yesterday, mainland health authorities said. A 38-year-old Shenzhen man was in critical condition after being diagnosed with the deadly strain of the flu, Shenzhen’s centre for disease control and prevention said. The patient is a migrant worker who lives and works in Nanwan Street, in Longgang district, near one of the infected markets where authorities found the H7N9 virus on December 11. A second patient, a 39-year-old man from Dongguan, commuted to the district. The pair follow Tri Mawarti, a domestic helper who was the first person in Hong Kong diagnosed with the virus. She is believed to have handled a live chicken at a flat in Nanwan Street before falling ill.”

WHO: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) – update
A further two cases of MERS-CoV have been confirmed in Saudi Arabia. The two patients are both female, aged 51 and 26 respectively. The former has no know exposure to the virus, whereas the latter had previously been exposed to an infected patient. Globally, there have been 165 cases to date, with 71 deaths.

WHO – “The first case is a 51 year-old female from Saudi Arabia, living in Jawf province with onset of symptoms on 20 November 2013. She has underlying chronic disease and was transferred to Riyadh for treatment in an intensive care unit. She had no reported contact with animals. The epidemiological investigation is ongoing. The second case is a 26 year-old female who is a non-Saudi healthcare worker in Riyadh. She is asymptomatic. She had reported contact with a 37 year-old male laboratory confirmed case that was reported to WHO on 21 November 2013.”

(image: Clavius66/Wikimedia)

Koblentz on Viral Warfare, Cyber Security, Chem/Bio, and Nuclear Weapons Accidents

GMU Biodefense Deputy Director Dr. Gregory Koblentz has a slew of new publications out of topics ranging from the nexus of bioweapons and cybersecurity to new frameworks for understanding chem/bio threats.

His article, “Regime Security: A New Theory for Understanding the Proliferation of Chemical and Biological Weapons”, is available in this month’s Contemporary Security Policy. Here’s the abstract:

“The literature on the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons (CBW) emphasizes the role of external security threats as the primary motive for states to acquire and use these weapons. As recent events in Syria demonstrate, governments lacking political legitimacy may use these weapons to repress domestic challenges to their rule. The concept of regime security provides a theoretical framework for understanding how the threat of military coups, insurgencies, or domestic rivals influences the acquisition and use of CBW by authoritarian regimes. The cases of South Africa and Iraq illustrate how a government’s concerns about internal security threats can impact its CBW proliferation decision-making. Omitting regime security as a factor in CBW decision-making may lead to the adoption of inappropriate nonproliferation and deterrent strategies. In light of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons against his own people, developing a deeper understanding of the influence of regime security on the acquisition and use of chemical and biological weapons should be a priority.” (available here)

Dr. Koblentz also co-published an article with GMU Biodefense PhD student Brian Mazanec, “Viral Warfare: Security Implications of Cyber and Biological Weapons” – the article examines the relatively emergent threats of biological and cyber warfare, exposing several commonalities between the two. The article was published in the November issue of Comparative Strategy, available here (access required).

Abstract – “Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, two new threats have received increased attention: biological warfare (BW) and cyber warfare. While it may appear that these two threats have little in common, they share several characteristics that have significant implications for international security. This article examines the two modalities side-by- side to review these common characteristics. In light of these commonalities and due to the extensive experience and rich history of dealing with BW threats, strategies for enhancing cyber security could advance more quickly by drawing meaningful insights from the biological warfare experience, such as the prospect of developing constraining international norms.” (available here)

Finally, Koblentz has a new review out  in Foreign Affairs, on Eric Schlosser’s new book, Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety.  The first paragraph is below – read the rest here.

Between 1950 and 1980, the United States experienced a reported 32 “broken arrows,” the military’s term for accidents involving nuclear weapons. The last of these occurred in September 1980, at a U.S. Air Force base in Damascus, Arkansas. It started when a young technician performing routine maintenance on a Titan II missile housed in an underground silo dropped a socket wrench. The wrench punctured the missile’s fuel tank. As the highly toxic and flammable fuel leaked from the missile, officers and airmen scrambled to diagnose the problem and fix it. Their efforts ultimately failed, and eight hours after the fuel tank ruptured, it exploded with tremendous force. The detonation of the missile’s liquid fuel was powerful enough to throw the silo’s 740-ton blast door more than 200 yards and send a fireball hundreds of feet into the night sky. The missile’s nine-megaton thermo­nuclear warhead — the most powerful ever deployed by the United States — was found, relatively intact, in a ditch 200 yards away from the silo.

(image: CDC)

Ben Ouagrham-Gormley on Bioweapons Proliferation

GMU Biodefense’s Dr. Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley evaluates the effect of increased state efforts to deter bioweapons threat in her recent article, ” Dissuading Biological Weapons Proliferation”. Check out the abstract below, and look for the full article in this month’s issue of Contemporary Security Policy.

Abstract – “The terrorist and anthrax attacks of 2001 spurred many countries to raise defences against a possible biological weapon attack, and potentially dissuade state and non-state actors from developing these weapons. Yet these programmes’ dissuasive value – creating strong barriers to entry – has never been analysed. This article argues that current biodefence efforts are counterproductive and more persuasive than dissuasive, because they rest on a biological threat narrative that emphasizes the benefits of bioweapons rather than their problematic development and use, and they fail to impose a high cost of entry in the bioweapons field. The dominant biological weapons narrative perpetuates several misconceptions, including that there are no barriers to biological weapons development, that expertise is easily acquired from scientific documents, and that new technologies are black boxes with de-skilling effects. The net result is popularization of a cost/benefit analysis in favour of bioweapons development. To remedy the situation, I suggest correcting these misconceptions by reshaping the biological threat narrative, and recommend policies to achieve a greater dissuasive impact, stressing the role of the Biological Weapons Convention, preventing access to tacit biological weapons skills, and criminalizing bioweapons proliferation by making the development and use of biological weapons a crime against humanity.”

The full journal article is available here (access required).

(Image: a single Bacillus anthracis colony, credit CDC/J. Todd Parker; PhD and Luis Lowe; MS; MPH)

Image of the Week: GMU Biodefense’s New Mascot

Our image of the week is brought to everyone from GMU Biodefense doctoral candidate, Jennifer Osetek. In today’s competitive environment, one can never start educating children too earlier, and in the niche field of Biodefense, all advantages are necessary. Luckily, Jen has an astute and willing scholar in her son, Alex. He’s clearly already a master of that well known PhD study technique, osmosis.

2012-10-26 23.06.44

Scientists Prove MERS in Camels

Scientists have finally been able to prove that the MERS-CoV also infects camels. Gene sequencing of the virus proved the existence of same strains in humans and three dromedary camels in Qatar.

Chicago Times – “The study, published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases journal on Tuesday, confirms preliminary findings released by Qatari health officials last month. Camels are used in the region for meat, milk, transport and racing. But the researchers cautioned it is too early to say whether the camels were definitely the source of the two human cases – in a 61-year-old man and then in a 23-year-old male employee of the farm – and more research is needed. ‘This is definitive proof that camels can be infected with MERS-CoV, but based on the current data we cannot conclude whether the humans on the farm were infected by the camels or vice versa,’ said Bart Haagmans of Rotterdam’s Erasmus Medical Centre, who led the study with other Dutch and Qatari scientists.”

Read more here.

This Week in DC: Events 12.16.13

Monday, December 16th, 2013
From Incitement to Violence to Conflict Mitigation
Elliot School
9:30 AM

Please join The Elliott School’s International Development Studies Program and Internews, the international media development NGO, for a panel discussion to consider the role of media in conflict: How do we know when atrocities are imminent for a country facing conflict? Does media have the potential to provide early warning of mass violence? Are there media interventions that can work to prevent violence?

Tuesday, December 17th
The al-Shabab Threat After Westgate
Carnegie Endowment
12:00PM

The Somali terrorist group al-Shabab catapulted onto the international stage after its September attack on the Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi. The group remains a dynamic and adaptive threat that has confounded efforts to eliminate its influence. A panel of experts on al-Shabab will examine the evolving threat in Somalia and beyond, identifying policy prescriptions for African governments, the United States, and the international community.

Wednesday, December 18th
Iran, Oil, and the Geneva Agreement
Atlantic Council
9:00AM

With the signing of an interim accord providing limited sanctions relief in return for restraints on Iran’s nuclear program, attention has focused on whether Iran will be able to increase its currently depressed oil and natural gas exports and whether multinational oil companies will again be willing to invest in Iran’s energy sector. Meanwhile, the President Hassan Rouhani’s administration is altering Iran’s energy policies in an effort to attract new buyers and investment. The panel will discuss the impact of these changes on Iran’s economy and on world oil supplies and prices.

China’s Re-emergence as a Great Power and Its Role in Regional Security
Brookings
1:00PM

During his recent visit to Beijing, U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden noted that “as China’s economy grows, its stake in regional peace and stability will continue to grow,” and that “China will bear increasing responsibility to contribute positively to peace and security.” While this perspective is not new, it is moving toward the center of other countries’ considerations of China as economic stakes increase and potential sources of instability continue to simmer. On December 18, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies (CEAP) will host a panel discussion featuring Visiting Fellows from China, Japan, and Korea to examine the increasing importance of China in Northeast Asian security, and ways that it might make positive contributions to the region. The discussion will focus on the Korean Peninsula, maritime issues, and perceptions of regional security in China, Japan, Korea, and the United States. After the panel, the speakers will take audience questions.

Webcast: December Cyber Risk Wednesday – Risks and Resilience of the Electrical Sector
Atlantic Council
3:00PM

Please join the Atlantic Council’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative for the next Cyber Risk Wednesday on December 18, 2013 from 3:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. A moderated discussion featuring: Tom Parker, Chief Technology Officer, FusionX; Neal Pollard, Senior Fellow, Cyber Statecraft Initiative, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council; Gib Sorebo, Chief Cybersecurity Technologist, Leidos.

Friday, December 20th
The U.S. and Saudi Arabia: Is a 70-Year Strategic Alliance on the Rocks?
Hudson Institute
10:00AM

The Obama administration’s outreach to Iran over its alleged nuclear program has Washington’s traditional Middle East allies concerned—perhaps the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia above all. An alliance that began in 1944 when President Roosevelt met with the founder of modern Saudi Arabia, King Ibn Saud, the U.S.-Saudi partnership, despite many ups and downs, has remained a cornerstone interest of both countries for nearly 70 years. Now, however, this bilateral relationship appears suddenly troubled—if if not outright endangered. The White House and the Kingdom have diverged on several key Middle East policies—Syria, Egypt, and most importantly Iran—leading Riyadh to consider other strategic options. Will the partnership survive? Or is it merely taking a new shape, long overdue?

(image: Dell/Flickr)

The Pandora Report 12.13.13

Highlights include pneumonic plague in Madagascar, ricin as a biological weapon, H7N9 in live markets in Hong Kong, Myanmar’s ratifying the BWC, and destroying sarin at sea. Happy Friday!

Madagascar hit by ‘pneumonic and bubonic plague’

In addition to the death of approximately 20 villagers who died of bubonic plague last week, a further two cases of pneumonic plague have been discovered. Pneumonic plague can be spread via aerosol. It must be treated within 24 hours; any later and the fatality rate approaches 100%. Understandably, there is concern amongst health officials in Madagascar that the disease will spread to neighboring villages and towns.

BBC – “Pneumonic plague is caused by the same bacteria that occur in bubonic plague – the Black Death that killed an estimated 25 million people in Europe during the Middle Ages. But while bubonic plague is usually transmitted by flea bites and can be treated with antibiotics, pneumonic plague is easier to contract and if untreated, has a very high case-fatality ratio, experts say. Madagascar’s health ministry director-general Dr Herlyne Ramihantaniarivo confirmed to the BBC that two cases of the plague had been reported”

Texas woman pleads guilty to ricin letters sent to Obama, Bloomberg
A Texan woman has been charged in the case involving ricin-laced letters sent to President Obama and Mayor Bloomberg. We’ve discussed the debate surrounding the classification of  ricin as a weapon of mass destruction before, so we do think its interesting they’ve charged her with use of a biological weapon.

CNN – “A Texas woman pleaded guilty Tuesday to a biological weapons charge after she was accused of sending ricin-laced letters to President Barack Obama and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, prosecutors announced. Shannon Guess Richardson, 35, pleaded guilty to possession of a toxin for use as a weapon, prosecutors said in a statement. She could be sentenced to up to life in prison. A sentencing date has not yet been scheduled. Richardson, an actress, was accused of sending the letters earlier this year.”

Shenzhen Finds H7N9 Flu Virus in Markets Near Hong Kong
Three of 70 samples taken from 13 of Guangdong’s  live poultry market have tested positive for H7N9. For some reason, one of the vendors whose stall tested positive for H7N9 was still allowed to sell chickens. China is usually extremely vigilant concerning containment and effective biosurveillance, so the hesitation to shut the live poultry markets is a little baffling.  However, the stalls are  apparently being disinfected daily.

Bloomberg Businessweek –  “The 12 live poultry stalls at the Hengan Paibang market in Longgan district, one of the markets where authorities found a positive sample, were open today. The stalls get their chickens from the Buji Poultry Wholesale Market in Longgan, according to the market’s manager. ‘There’s been no order yet to shut down,’ said Zhang Jinghui, manager of the Paibang market. ‘We need to wait for instructions from the village committee. We are disinfecting the stalls everyday.’ About 30 chickens, ducks, pigeons and geese were stored in metal cages at his stall, next to a shed for slaughtering the poultry and a metal-spinning vat for defeathering.”

Myanmar Prepares to Ratify Chemical, Biological Weapons Treaties
While Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, has signed both the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Biological Weapons Convention, it has yet to ratify either treaty. There is still some debate over whether the military junta previously in charge had used chemical weapons on the rebels. Myanmar has been cooperating with IAEA inspectors to increase overview of its nuclear program.

Radio Free Asia – “Myanmar’s government asserts the country has no chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons programs. But ethnic armed rebel groups including the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) have accused the Myanmar military of using chemical weapons as recently as last year in their long-running war in the country’s borderlands. In the 1980s and early 1990s, the U.S. government voiced suspicions of a possible chemical weapons program under the military junta in Myanmar, naming China and North Korea as possible suppliers. Since then the U.S. has been less vocal in its concern about the issue. According to global security nonprofit organization the Nuclear Threat Initiative, there is currently ‘no evidence’ to suggest Myanmar has a chemical weapons program.”

Scientists raise alarm over plan to destroy Syria’s chemical weapons at sea
The Department of Defense’s plan to neutralize Syria’s chemical weapons, through hydrolysis, at sea, is coming under sharp criticism. The use of the technology at sea is unprecedented, and requires a tremendous deal of very careful estimating. Of course, when dealing with agents like sarin and VX, very careful estimating is not always enough. News of the criticism comes at the same time as the UN confirmed the repeated use of chemical weapons in the Syrian conflict. 

Washington Times – “‘There’s no precedence. We’re all guessing. We’re all estimating,’ said Raymond Zilinskas, director of the Chemical and Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, who worked as a U.N. biological weapons inspector in Iraq in 1994. ‘For example, you don’t know if the sarin is pure. The Iraqi sarin was rather impure, and had a lot of contaminants, and we don’t know if that’s amenable to hydrolysis,’ said Mr. Zilinskas, a professor at the Monterey Institute of International Studies at Middlebury College. Under the Pentagon plan, the toxic stockpile would be transported to the Syrian port of Latakia, loaded onto a non-U.S. vessel and shipped to a third country. From there, a U.S. cargo ship would take the arsenal to sea for destruction. Richard M. Lloyd, a warhead technology consultant at Tesla Laboratories Inc. who tracks weapons being used in Syria, said he has little confidence in the regime’s ability to transport the weapons safely.”

In case you missed it
Drug Resistant H7N9 Retains Pathogenicity

(image: Wmeinhart/wikimedia)