biological weapons – The Pandora Report

Pandora Report 1.26.2024

January 26, 2024January 26, 2024 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week covers the updated Doomsday Clock time, new HHS cybersecurity performance goals for the health sector, a podcast episode with our own Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley covering her work on barriers to biological weapons, new publications, and more!

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board Leaves Doomsday Clock at 90 Seconds to Midnight

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board recently announced that it left the Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight this year, based on threats like nuclear risk, climate change, biological threats, and disruptive technologies. In its statement, the board said in part “Ominous trends continue to point the world toward global catastrophe. The war in Ukraine and the widespread and growing reliance on nuclear weapons increase the risk of nuclear escalation. China, Russia, and the United States are all spending huge sums to expand or modernize their nuclear arsenals, adding to the ever-present danger of nuclear war through mistake or miscalculation.”

“In 2023, Earth experienced its hottest year on record, and massive floods, wildfires, and other climate-related disasters affected millions of people around the world. Meanwhile, rapid and worrisome developments in the life sciences and other disruptive technologies accelerated, while governments made only feeble efforts to control them.”

In its in-depth explanation of biological risks that factored into this decision, the board explains that “The revolution in the life sciences and associated technologies continues to accelerate and expand in scope, enabling an increasing number of individuals, in groups and alone, to pose threats arising from both accidental and deliberate misuse. During the past six months, the potential for artificial intelligence tools to empower individuals to misuse biology has become far more apparent.”

The same sidebar also explains that “Two other types of biological risks remain causes for concern: accidental release of organisms from laboratories and naturally occurring infectious diseases, especially those with pandemic potential. Deforestation, urbanization, and climate change continue to destabilize microbe-host relationships and facilitate the emergence of infectious diseases. Meanwhile, high-biosafety-level laboratories have proliferated around the world, as has risky research motivated by interests in controlling these diseases. Despite the importance of understanding and countering naturally occurring biological threats, it isn’t clear that all of these high-biosafety-level laboratories or high-risk experiments are needed for achieving these goals. As the number of laboratories and amount of risky research increases, and the failure to standardize safe laboratory practices and to institute adequate research oversight persists, the risk of accidental release of dangerous pathogens worsens.”

HHS Announces New Voluntary Performance Goals, Resources for Health Sector Cybersecurity

This week, the Department of Health and Human Services announced via the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) that it is releasing “voluntary health care specific cybersecurity performance goals (CPGs) and a new gateway website to help Health Care and Public Health (HPH) sector organizations implement these high-impact cybersecurity practices and ease access to the plethora of cybersecurity resources HHS and other federal partners offer.”

The statement further explained “As outlined in the recent HHS Health Care Sector Cybersecurity concept paper, HHS is publishing the CPGs to help health care organizations, and health care delivery organizations in particular, prioritize implementation of high-impact cybersecurity practices. The HPH CPGs are designed to better protect the healthcare sector from cyberattacks, improve response when events occur, and minimize residual risk. HPH CPGs include both essential goals to outline minimum foundational practices for cybersecurity performance and enhanced goals to encourage adoption of more advanced practices.”

Read more here.

“Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley on Barriers to Bioweapons”

From Hear This Idea: “Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley is an associate professor at George Mason University and the deputy director of their biodefense program. Sonia has written extensively on the proliferation and non-proliferation of bioweapons, being one of the key voices to have emphasized the challenges that organizations, tacit knowledge, and other factors have caused for states and terrorists that have attempted to acquire weapons of mass destruction.”

“In this episode we talk about:

Misconceptions around the ease of bioweapon production — how and why bioweapons programs face unique challenges compared to nuclear weapons programs
The crucial role of tacit knowledge in bioweapons production
Will AI make bioweapons much easier to develop, or will human expertise remain a major bottleneck?
Case studies of bioweapons programs, illustrating the practical difficulties and failures encountered even by well-resourced state actors.
(How) has Biological Weapons Convention prevented bioweapon proliferation?
Do global political trends point towards proliferation, even without AI?”

“How Reliable is ISIS’s Claiming Responsibility for Deadly Attacks in Iran?”

Schar School associate professor Mahmut Cengiz recently authored this piece for Homeland Security Today, in which he writes in part “These discrepancies related to the twin blasts bring up a question of how reliable ISIS is when the group claims responsibility for terrorist attacks. Terrorist groups aim to take credit when a group spokesperson, on behalf of the organization, states that the group is the perpetrator of the attack. They tend to claim responsibility for attacks—targeting state institutions and the military rather than civilians— when they aim to gain publicity and when the backlash from the government is not likely. As opposed to terrorist attacks that claimed most responsibility in the 1980s and 1990s, every one of seven attacks has been recorded claiming responsibility since 2018. According to the Global Terrorism and Trends Analysis Center (GTTAC) Records of Incidents Database (GRID), the attacks by ISIS and its affiliated organizations steadily increased from 2018 to 2022. They conducted 873 attacks in the first ten months of 2023. Contrary to increasing attacks, its attacks of claiming responsibility slightly increased between 2018 and 2020 and dropped in 2021 and 2022. ISIS groups claimed responsibility in its 161 attacks. “

“Beyond Borders, Beyond Biases: Building a Biosecure Future with Diverse Voices”

Aparupa Sengupta, Senior Program Officer for Global Biological Policy and Programs at NTI, discusses the importance of diversity and inclusion in biosafety and biosecurity governance in this piece for NTI. She writes in part “At NTI, we believe the greatest risk of these catastrophic effects is from the accidental or intentional misuse of a bio-engineered agent. Therefore, we focus on developing stronger biosafety and biosecurity policies and practices to protect against these manmade risks. This work requires global cooperation and shared responsibility, and an understanding that diverse perspectives and experiences are essential. Without them, we will face widening knowledge gaps and international resentment, ultimately sabotaging our ability to collectively address bio threats.”

“Recently, the Center for Security and International Studies (CSIS) published a report recommending actions to strengthen global biosafety and biosecurity. As someone with more than 15 years of experience working in the interface of science, technology, and biosafety/security, I endorse all eight recommendations in the report but suggest adding a ninth one to the list: “Prioritize diversity and inclusion for effective global biosafety and biosecurity governance.”’

“Did China Keep the COVID Virus Sequence Secret for Weeks?”

Matt Field breaks down questions surrounding China’s sharing of the SARS-CoV-2 genetic sequence in the early days of COVID-19 in this piece for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: “In outbreak response, speed is critical as authorities seek to quickly determine the cause of a disease and prevent it from spreading. A new report is now raising fresh questions about China’s early response to COVID-19. The Wall Street Journal revealed Wednesday that a researcher in Beijing attempted to upload the genetic sequence SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID, to a US-based public database about two weeks before the Chinese government publicized the pathogen’s sequence, a lag that potentially robbed scientists and health officials of valuable time.”

“Investigating the Potential Strategic Implications of COVID-19 for Biological Weapons Pursuit: A New Expert Simulation”

Ackerman et al. recently published this article in Health Security: “To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the strategic decisionmaking of leaders with respect to biological weapons, this study employed a prospective simulation technique called Asynchronous Strategic Dynamics Red Teaming. Using an immersive, multimedia simulation conducted remotely and asynchronously, the effort engaged 240 carefully selected and curated expert participants in either biological weapons or the countries of interest (as well as 60 naïve participants). Across our sample of 30 countries, simulated interest in pursuing some type of biological weapons program (defensive or offensive) remained low to moderate. While such interest increased after the simulated onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was limited overall, with only a handful of states showing salient increases in offensive biological weapon interest. When directly referencing why their countries might have changed their post-COVID-19 interest in biological weapons, the most commonly cited reasons were: (1) COVID-19 demonstrated the power of biological weapons to disrupt societies and cause large-scale economic harm, and (2) the pandemic revealed either the state’s own or its rivals’ vulnerability to diseases like COVID-19, as well as an inability to efficiently respond and contain such diseases. In sum, despite a global pandemic with massive consequences, the simulation revealed that most states are not likely to dramatically change their strategic posture regarding pursuit of offensive biological weapons.”

“Catalogue of Civil Society Assistance for BWC States Parties”

From the Stimson Center: “The Catalogue of Civil Society Assistance to States Parties annually highlights the contributions of civil society to the BWC and States Parties and to the enhancement of biological safety and security. From Ottawa to Hamburg, there are civil society assistance programs across the world that are available to support the implementation of the BWC. The catalogue includes organization and project descriptions and points of contact for each program, which aims to facilitate stronger connections between civil society and State Parties in need of assistance.”

“The Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks”

New from RAND: “The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has far-reaching implications across multiple domains, including concern regarding the potential development of biological weapons. This potential application of AI raises particular concerns because it is accessible to nonstate actors and individuals. The speed at which AI technologies are evolving often surpasses the capacity of government regulatory oversight, leading to a potential gap in existing policies and regulations.”

“In this report, the authors share final results of a study of the potential risks of using large language models (LLMs) in the context of biological weapon attacks. They conducted an expert exercise in which teams of researchers role-playing as malign nonstate actors were assigned to realistic scenarios and tasked with planning a biological attack; some teams had access to an LLM along with the internet, and others were provided only access to the internet. The authors sought to identify potential risks posed by LLM misuse, generate policy insights to mitigate any risks, and contribute to responsible LLM development. The findings indicate that using the existing generation of LLMs did not measurably change the operational risk of such an attack.”

“Implementing The Bioeconomy Executive Order: Lessons Learned And Future Considerations”

Nazish Jeffrey breaks down the Federations of American Scientists’ Bioeconomy EO Tracker in this piece, writing “With the U.S. bioeconomy valued at over $950 billion and predicted to steadily increase, the potential for significant economic impact is unmistakable. To leverage this economic opportunity, the 2022 Bioeconomy Executive Order (EO) took a significant step towards addressing the complexities of the bioeconomy and creating a whole-of-government approach. The scope of the EO was vast, assigning around 40 tasks to many different federal agencies, in order to create a national framework to leverage bio-based innovations for sustainable economic growth.”

“To track the numerous tasks assigned by the EO, the Federation of American Scientists have put together a living Bioeconomy EO tracker to monitor the progress of these tasks, enhance accountability and to allow stakeholders to stay informed on the state of the U.S. bioeconomy as it evolves. This FAS tracker was inspired by the initial tracker created by Stanford University when the EO was first published.”

“Public Health Preparedness: HHS Emergency Agency Needs to Strengthen Workforce Planning”

In this new Government Accountability Office report, GAO recommends that “ASPR (1) establish specific goals and performance measures to use for its new hiring office once it is fully operational, (2) develop tailored strategies for recruiting and hiring human capital staff for the new office, (3) identify the critical areas that need workforce assessments and develop plans to implement them, and (4) conduct an agency-wide workforce assessment. HHS neither agreed nor disagreed with the first two recommendations and agreed with the last two recommendations. GAO believes actions are needed to address all of the recommendations.”

Read more here.

“Dissecting Pandemic-Prone Viral Families Volume 2: The Paramyxoviridae”

Amesh A. Adalja covers the Paramyxoviridae family in this volume of Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security’s Dissecting Pandemic-Prone Viral Families,” writing in part “Paramyxoviridae is a large viral family that contains many once common and wellknown human pathogens, such as measles and mumps, as well as other pathogens that pose concerns for their potential to cause epidemic or pandemic disease.1″

“This family of viruses infects a wide variety of species, ranging from reptiles to rodents and fish to birds. While diseases such as measles and mumps cause little morbidity and mortality in advanced societies today—because of high levels of vaccine-induced immunity—other members of this viral family have considerable burdens of infection with attendant morbidity and mortality risks. Also, within this family, there is one genus of consequence – Henipavirus – that has already been responsible for a number of serious emerging infectious diseases. The table below summarizes key genera and viruses of this family.1”

“The Overlooked Bacterial Pandemic”

Moriel et al. recently published this work in Seminars in Immunopathology: “The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant economic and health impact worldwide. It also reinforced the misperception that only viruses can pose a threat to human existence, overlooking that bacteria (e.g., plague and cholera) have severely haunted and shaped the course of human civilization. While the world is preparing for the next viral pandemic, it is again overlooking a silent one: antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This review proposes to show the impact of bacterial infections on civilization to remind the pandemic potential. The work will also discuss a few examples of how bacteria can mutate risking global spread and devastating outcomes, the effect on the global burden, and the prophylactic and therapeutic measures. Indeed, AMR is dramatically increasing and if the trend is not reversed, it has the potential to quickly turn into the most important health problem worldwide.”

“Etymologia: Ring Vaccination”

Sharma et al. recently published this short piece covering ring vaccination’s etymology in Emerging Infectious Diseases: “Ring Vaccination [rɪŋ-væk-sɪ′-neɪ-ʃn] Ring vaccination (expanding ring, surveillance and containment) is a public health measure designed to prevent spread of disease from infected persons to others. This approach targets persons who have had close contact with confirmed or suspected cases and are at a higher risk of infection by vaccinating them first (Figure).”

Read more here.

“Russian Military Thought and Doctrine Related to Non-strategic Nuclear Weapons: Change and Continuity”

William Alberque tackles Russian nuclear doctrine in this report for the International Institute for Strategic Studies: “Russian nuclear doctrine, especially regarding its large stockpile of non-strategic nuclear weapons, has become one of the most pressing issues in Euro-Atlantic security. This report aims to build an understanding of Russia’s strategic nuclear weapons doctrine through empirical research, including by examining the continuities and discontinuities in doctrine across time, through the Cold War, to the collapse of the Soviet Union, to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and in Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine.”

Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction Newsletter

The Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction’s newsletter is published quarterly and is available for subscription here. This quarter’s edition focuses on Italy’s upcoming Global Partnership presidency, the Partnership’s 2023 Programming Annex, featured articles, community updates, and more.

“UNITAD – Key Investigations as UN Mechanism Reaches Its Final Reporting Year”

Sam Biden covers the work of the UN Investigate Team to Promote Accountability Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD), providing an overview of its key investigations in the last two years in this piece for the Human Security Centre. This includes UNITAD’s work on biological and chemical weapons, under which Biden explains in part, “2023 marked a significant stride in the relentless pursuit of accountability for ISIL’s chemical and biological weapons program. The investigation during this reporting period yielded substantial evidence from earlier inquiries strategies regarding the production and delivery of the weapons themselves. These key lines of inquiry harnessed new collaborations with technical experts, including those from the Mine Action Service, provided essential insights into a wide array of attacks. UNITADs work extended to collecting and preserving evidence linked to 12 attacks yet continued to focus on gathering further evidence from the 2016 attack on Tazah Khurmatu. This ultimately led to the collection of new battlefield evidence and files, shedding light on ISIL’s operations in Kirkuk and implicating specific persons of interest. A comprehensive report focused on the 2016 attack on Tazah Khurmatu was shared with the Iraqi judiciary, encapsulating critical findings from the ongoing investigation.”

ICYMI-“Event Summary: U.S.–UK Strategic Dialogue on Biosecurity”

“On January 16, the Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) hosted senior government leaders for the launch of the U.S.–UK Strategic Dialogue on Biosecurity at the historic National Academy of Sciences Building in Washington, D.C.”

“Building upon decades of partnership between the two countries, the Strategic Dialogue is a core component of the Atlantic Declaration—the new bilateral economic partnership established in 2023 to adapt, reinforce, and reimagine the U.S.-UK alliance for the challenges of the twenty-first century. Following the event, the U.S. National Security Council and the UK Cabinet Office released a joint statement outlining the Strategic Dialogue’s intent, including coordination to uphold global norms and commitments to lead on innovation in biotechnology and biosecurity.”

Read more here.

NEW: AI Rewards, Risks, and the Future of Biosecurity by Design (Pandemic Center Webinar)

From the Brown School of Public Health: “On January 24th at 1:00 PM EST the Pandemic Center will host a webinar titled AI Rewards, Risks, and the Future of Biosecurity by Design.”

“This event will bring together experts in biosecurity, global health, and pandemic prevention and response. Together, they will discuss the relationship between AI and biosecurity, with a focus on benefits, risks, and pragmatic solutions.”

“This event will be hosted and moderated by Beth Cameron, PhD, Professor of the Practice and Senior Advisor to the Pandemic Center.”

Learn more and register here.

NEW: Kazakhstan’s Actions to Address Nuclear and Biological Risks

From the Cargenie Endowment for International Peace: “Upon the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan found itself in possession of the world’s fourth-largest nuclear weapons stockpile and the former union’s most significant biological weapons factory. Kazakhstan’s subsequent decision to return and dismantle these weapons has solidified its position as a leader in nuclear and biological risk reduction. For the last thirty years, Kazakhstan’s actions have served as a core model for regional and international security.”

“Please join the Carnegie Endowment and the Council on Strategic Risks for a hybrid panel on Kazakhstan’s increasingly global role in the changing threat landscape of weapons of mass destruction. The discussion will feature Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to the United States of America Yerzhan Ashikbayev, the Honorable Andrew Weber, and Dr. Toghzan Kassenova. It will be moderated by Shannon Green, senior fellow at the Council on Strategic Risks.”

This event will take place on January 30 at 1:30 pm EST. Learn more and RSVP here.

NEW: WEBINAR: State Department 2023 Global Terrorism Data: Trends & Warnings

From Homeland Security Today: “Join HSToday for a Law Enforcement-only analysis of global terrorism trends from 2023 and threat forecasts for 2024. The Department of State’s yearly Annex of Statistical Information Reports uses The Global Terrorism Trends and Analysis Center (GTTAC) database.”

“Dr. Mahmut Cengiz, a senior data analyst at GTTAC since 2018, will discuss terrorism trends from 2023 and areas of concern for law enforcement in the United States (US). More specifically, his analyses will focus on HAMAS and Iran-backed terror groups targeting American facilities in the Middle East, Al Qaeda- and ISIS-affiliated organizations actively involved in terrorist attacks worldwide, increasing far-right terrorism and emerging lone actor threats in the US and Europe. The Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC) is the first center in the United States devoted to understanding the links among terrorism, transnational crime and corruption, and to teach, research, train and help formulate policy on these critical issues. TraCCC is a research center within the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. TraCCC also houses the innovative and highly-respected Anti-Illicit Trade Institute (AITI).”

This event will take place on February 8 at 2 pm EST. Learn more and register here.

AI Executive Order Report Card Reviewing the First 90 Days

“On October 30, 2023, the Biden Administration issued a call to action outlining a host of requirements and deliverables for U.S. government agencies on artificial intelligence. The executive order touched on a range of AI-relevant issues, including testing and evaluation of new AI systems, developing a healthy and capable U.S. AI workforce, and ensuring U.S. competitiveness in the years to come.”

“Join CSET researchers on January 31, 2024, for a discussion of what the U.S. Government has accomplished so far, what have we learned, and what’s left to do to complete the EO’s ambitious goals.”

This online event will begin at 12 pm EST. Learn more and register here.

GP Nonproliferation and Strategic Trade Hub Virtual Launch & Demo

“The Strategic Trade Research Institute (STRI) invites you to participate in the Global Partnership Nonproliferation and Strategic Trade Hub Virtual Launch and Demo event taking place on February 27, 2024, from 9:00-10:00 am EST.”

“Please join us to learn about the main features of the Hub, how to use it, and how it can be useful and impactful for nonproliferation and export control professionals. The event will feature Andrea Viski, Director of STRI, as well as introductory remarks from the Hub’s sponsor, the United Kingdom’s Counter-proliferation and Arms Control Center (CPACC).”

Learn more and register here.

International Conference, CBRNE Research & Innovation

“The last 40 years have demonstrated that both military and civilian populations could be exposed to highly hazardous CBRNE agents following conflicts, natural outbreaks and disasters, industrial incidents or terrorist attacks.”

“Worldwide, researchers, responders and industrial capacities have been commited to provide adapted response to these challenges.”

“Building on the success of the first 5 International Conferences « CBRNE Research and Innovation » which took place in Antibes (2015), Lyon (2017), Nantes (2019), on line (2021) and Lille (2022), we want to give you a new opportunity to build up or strengthen collaborative networks in Strabourg (March 19^th – 21^rst 2024).”

“The CBRNE R&I Conference is specifically devoted to scientific updates, responders’ feedbacks and expression of needs. It also includes workshops and demonstrations of innovative materials, technologies and procedures, according to the following themes: DETECTION – IDENTIFICATION, PROTECTION – DECONTAMINATION, MEDICAL COUNTERMEASURES, RISKS & CRISIS MANAGEMENT.”

“Looking forward to your proposals for communication and to welcoming you at Strasbourg in March 2024!”

Learn more here.

cbrne-ri-conference-2024-_-flyer-ppt-v06.11.2023-1 Download

Registration for GHS 2024 Now Open

Registration is now open for the Global Health Security 2024 conference in Sydney, Australia. This iteration will take place 18-21 June, 2024. The call for abstracts is also still open. “The mission of the Global Health Security conference is to provide a forum where leaders, researchers, policy-makers, and representatives from government, international organisations, civil society, and private industry from around the world can engage with each other, review the latest research and policy innovations, and agree solutions for making the world safer and healthier. To that end, our mission is to help foster a genuinely multidisciplinary community of practice that is committed to working collaboratively to enhance global health security and eliminate disease, irrespective of its origin or source.”

Pandora Report 12.22.2023

December 22, 2023December 22, 2023 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

Happy first day of winter! This week we are covering updates on Russia’s actions in Ukraine, anthrax outbreaks in parts of Africa, efforts to get the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act reauthorized, and OpenAI’s plan to manage threats posed by its AI platforms. This is the last issue of the Pandora Report for 2023. We will see you next year but, until then, have a happy rest of the holiday season!

Russia Tear Gases Ukrainian Forces

Recent reporting from CNN explained that, in addition to using wave after wave of convicts-turned-recruits, Russia has increasingly begun to use CS gas on Ukrainian forces: “Those fighting in besieged Ukrainian trenches say they now face another threat: the use of gas as a weapon. Nine incidents have been recorded in recent weeks in this area, one Ukrainian combat medic told CNN, in which a caustic and flammable gas had been dropped by drones onto Ukrainian lines, causing one fatality. The gas is used to cause panic and followed by conventional shelling or drone attacks, soldiers impacted said…A Ukrainian intelligence official told CNN the substance deployed by the Russians was a form of CS gas.”

CS (chlorobenzylidenemalononitrile) gas, commonly referred to colloquially as tear gas, is used as a riot control agent. According to the CDC, these agents “…are chemical compounds that temporarily make people unable to function by causing irritation to the eyes, mouth, throat, lungs, and skin.” Use of these agents in war is prohibited under the Chemical Weapons Convention.

The same CNN report later explained that “Two soldiers who survived a gas attack showed CNN medical reports indicating they had been poisoned. “At first I saw smoke,” one told CNN. “We ran out from the trench and the gas suddenly caught fire. The trench was in flames. This gas burns, blinds you, you can’t breathe, shoots down your throat immediately. We didn’t even have a second.”‘

“The alleged use of chemical agents on the battlefield marks another sign of the brutality and mendacity of Russia’s renewed fight for the terrain it lost. Ukraine had hoped for greater advances during the summer toward the Azov Sea, yet now must defend its minor gains.”

Russian Troops Reportedly Dying from “Mouse Fever”

Russian troops in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region are reportedly suffering an outbreak of “mouse fever,” a hemorrhagic fever. Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (HUR) recently reported that “dissatisfaction is growing in the units of the Russian occupation army due to inadequate provision of winter clothing and a complete lack of medical care,” likely contributing to the rapid spread of this disease.

The Kyiv Post also explained that HUR reports that complaints about the outbreak on the front lines fell on deaf ears, with Russian leadership viewing them as “…another manifestation of attempts to avoid combat operations.” HUR has also reported that the disease initially presents with flu-like symptoms, and that it is a viral disease transmitted to humans from rodents via contact with bodily fluids. As the same Kyiv Post article explains, “Symptoms of mouse fever include severe headache, fever up to 40 degrees, rashes and redness, low blood pressure, hemorrhages in the eyes, nausea, and vomiting several times a day. The disease also affects the kidneys, a person infected with mouse fever experiences intense low back pain and will have serious difficulty urinating.”

HUR’s reporting on the outbreak did not identify a specific pathogen, though it did suggest this could be hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), driving online speculation that this outbreak was caused by a hantavirus despite some outlets reporting it was caused by the bacterial rat-bite fever. The WHO explains that HFRS is “…an acute interstitial nephropathy characterized by high fever and varying degrees of renal insufficiency and hemorrhage. HFRS is caused by viruses belonging to the old world lineage of the Hantavirus genus of the family Bunyaviridae.”

The WHO further explains that “Various haemorrhagic fevers with a very similar syndrome have been reported throughout Europe and Asia, notably HFRS in the former Soviet Union, Songo fever in China, epidemic nephritis or epidemic haemorrhagic fever in Eastern Europe and Japan, and Hantaan virus in Korea. Several rodents and other small mammals harbor hantaviruses, and in urban areas, where rodent control is feasible, efforts can be made to reduce contact between humans and rodent excreta.”

Regardless of what is causing this outbreak, this is a tale as old as time. War and disease go hand-in-hand, highlighting the importance of maintaining sanitary practices, particularly when turning to trench warfare. Russia’s military has historically struggled with maintaining sanitary conditions, as noted by Amnesty International in the late 1990s and Russia’s own inspectors in the early 2010s, all of which has conicided with persistent challenges in professionalizing the military and maintaining supply lines during the current conflict.

Five African Countries Report Anthrax Outbreaks

The WHO has confirmed that five countries in eastern and southern Africa are experiencing outbreaks of anthrax, with at least 20 related deaths reported since the start of 2023. There are currently over 1,160 presumed anthrax cases in Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, though only 35 have been confirmed by laboratory testing. Zambia is currently fighting its largest anthrax outbreak since 2011, with nine of its ten provinces impacted. Though experts say this all is not unusual nor unreasonable, it is notable that, in Uganda, many of the presumed cases have tested negative for anthrax, potentially indicating a different disease is circulating.

The WHO explained in its December 11 press release on the matter that, “The outbreaks are presenting varied patterns in the affected countries. In Kenya, three deaths have been reported this year compared with zero fatalities from over 200 suspected cases in 2022. While the disease is endemic in animals in Malawi, the country reported its first ever human case this year. Human anthrax cases have been reported in three districts in Uganda, with 13 deaths compared with two deaths in 2022. The high case fatality ratio is due to patients reporting late to health facilities. In Zimbabwe, human cases have been reported every year since 2019, underscoring the need for stronger preventive actions.”

“Joint multidisciplinary teams have deployed at country level to support assessments, identify gaps and take measures to strengthen the outbreak response. WHO is also working closely with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), United Nations Environment Programme and World Organisation for Animal Health to coordinate response in the affected countries leveraging the One Health Platforms…The outbreaks are likely being driven by multiple factors, including climatic shocks, food insecurity, low risk perception and exposure to the disease through handling the meat of infected animals.”

115 Organizations Urge Congress to Reauthorize PAHPA

A list of 115 organizations is formally calling on Congress to reauthorize the bipartisan Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA), according to a press release from the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee. PAHPA expired on September 30 and has yet to be reauthorized by Congress, though the HELP Committee did pass legislation to reauthorize it in a 17-3 vote this summer.

The HELP Committee explained in its statement “Congress first enacted PAHPA in 2006, largely to address the failures of the federal response following Hurricane Katrina. The legislation sought to support states, local governments, and hospitals so they would be better prepared for future emergencies. It established the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA). It also made improvements to the National Disaster Medical System and other resources to improve medical surge capacity during an emergency. PAHPA was previously reauthorized on a bipartisan basis in 2013 and 2019.”

A list of the 115 organizations involved is available at the link above.

OpenAI Unveils Plan for Managing AI Dangers

OpenAI, the company perhaps most famous for its ChatGPT chatbot, recently announced how it plans to prepare for what it believes to be potential threats posed by the technology it develops. A recent article from The Washington Post explains the plan, reading “OpenAI’s “Preparedness” team, led by MIT AI professor Aleksander Madry, will hire AI researchers, computer scientists, national security experts and policy professionals to monitor the tech, continually test it and warn the company if it believes any of its AI capabilities are becoming dangerous. The team sits between OpenAI’s “Safety Systems” team, which works on such existing problems as infusing racist biases intoAI, and the company’s “Superalignment” team, which researches how to ensure AI doesn’t harm humans in an imagined future where the tech has outstripped human intelligence completely.”

“The preparedness team is hiring national security experts from outside the AI world who can help OpenAI understand how to deal with big risks. It is beginning discussions with organizations, including the National Nuclear Security Administration, which oversees nuclear technology in the United States, to ensure the company can appropriately study the risks of AI, Madry said.”

“The team will monitor how and when OpenAI’s tech can instruct people to hack computers or build dangerous chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, beyond what people can find online through regular research. Madry is looking for people who “really think, ‘How can I mess with this set of rules? How can I be most ingenious in my evilness?’”

“Dr. Jomana Musmar, MS, PhD – Designated Federal Officer and Executive Director – PACCARB”

Check out this conversation with Biodefense PhD Program alumna Jomana Musmar on the Progress, Potential, and Possibilities YouTube channel: “Dr. Jomana Musmar, MS, PhD, is the Designated Federal Officer and Executive Director of the Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria ( https://www.hhs.gov/ash/advisory-comm… ), and Senior Public Health Advisor within the Office of Infectious Diseases and HIV/AIDS Policy ( https://www.hhs.gov/oidp/index.html ), at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).”

“The Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria ( PACCARB – https://www.hhs.gov/ash/advisory-comm… ) is a US federal advisory committee that provides advice, information, and recommendations to the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS Secretary). The council supports and evaluates U.S. government activities focused on fighting antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in human health, animal health, and environmental health. Using this One Health approach, members of the PACCARB have expertise from a range of backgrounds, including academia, industry, public health, advocacy, veterinary, and agricultural production.”

“Dr. Musmar has been managing the PACCARB since its establishment in 2015, during which time she has hosted 24 public meetings and overseen the development of seven reports providing recommendations on a range of issues related to antimicrobial-resistance (AMR) for both human and animal health.”

“Dr. Musmar has over 10 years of Federal Advisory Committee experience, with a focus on the areas of public health, biodefense, and AMR. Her graduate degrees include a Master’s in Biomedical Science Policy from Georgetown University School of Medicine and a Doctorate in Biodefense and Homeland Security from George Mason University.”

“The Health Security Outcomes of APEC and the Biden-Xi Dialogue”

Recent Biodefense MS grad Sophie Hirshfield just published this piece for CSIS, addressing key global health questions following the APEC summit and Biden-Xi meeting. She explains in her introduction, “From November 14 to 16, leaders from the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group met in San Francisco to discuss promoting trade and economic growth across the Pacific region. On the sidelines of the forum, Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping convened for their first in-person meeting in a year. While the meetings provided an opportunity to keep public health priorities on the diplomatic agenda, they led to few meaningful new commitments on U.S.-China health security cooperation.”

“Public Health Agencies Are Using AI Chatbots to Ease Workloads. Is It a Good Idea?”

Biodefense PhD Student Kimberly Ma recently published this piece with The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. In it, she explains in part, “There’s a real risk that large-language models like ChatGPT contribute to online disinformation and misinformation. In a call earlier this year for the safe and ethical use of AI, the World Health Organization (WHO) worried that AI responses “can appear authoritative and plausible to an end user” but be “completely incorrect or contain serious errors, especially for health-related” matters. Similarly, the organization warned AI may be “misused to generate and disseminate highly convincing disinformation in the form of text, audio or video content that is difficult for the public to differentiate from reliable health content.” Just as media organizations have been caught publishing AI-generated content riddled with inaccuracies, public health workers need to ensure they are not accidentally producing well-intentioned deliverables with critical errors. And in an environment when adversarial countries, antivaxxers, and politicians operate individually or in networks to spread disinformation online, public health agencies will be up against bad actors with the same technology they have.”

“Preparing for the Next Pandemic Response Through Strengthened Collaboration”

Donnel Harvin, a member of the Schar School faculty, recently co-authored this white paper for NEMA: “This report synthesizes the insights from the National Emergency Management Association (NEMA) Pandemic Workshop hosted in June of 2023. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded the project. The workshop brought together emergency management directors and state public health officers from eight states to discuss their collaborative response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the very early phases of the response, January 2020 – January 2022. The particular focus was on the identification of friction points, successes, and opportunities for increased collaboration. Federal partners were invited to discuss issues with federal integration into state COVID-19 response efforts. The discussions highlighted a range of complex issues encompassing roles and authorities, data collection and sharing, equity concerns, and communication, with an emphasis on state and local levels as well as rural and urban experiences.”

10.01.2023-nema-white-paper-preparing-for-the-next-pandemic-response-through-strengthened-collaboration-2 Download

“Advancing Governance Models for Frontier for AIxBIO: Key Takeaways and Action Items from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security Metting with Industry, Government, and NGOs, 29 November 2023”

Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security recently published a “…summary of high-level findings that identify concrete next steps needed following its recent convening of leading AI labs, executive branch officials, and biosecurity experts…” that “was informed by discussions during a not-for-attribution meeting hosted by the Center. The meeting was attended by around 50 participants, including those from 6 different leading AI companies as well as government officials from the White House and several government agencies with responsibility for managing potential AIxBio risks.”

The report calls for “…the creation of an ongoing public-private forum to facilitate the sharing of important information related to biosecurity risks; a regulatory framework that defines mandatory practices, reporting, and oversight of highly capable AI models; and a legal accountability framework to incentivize developers and deployers of models to adequately address emergent risks.”

“Generative AI and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Will AI Lead to Proliferation?”

Ian Stewart unpacks potential proliferation threats posed by LLMs in this Medium post, writing in part “Large Language Models (LLMs) caught popular attention in 2023 through their ability to generate text based on prompts entered by the user. LLMs have also proven capable of generating code, summarizing text, and adding structure to unstructured text, among others. There remain questions around the real-world usefulness of LLMs in many domains, particularly given some of the difficulties in solving limitations of LLMs such as hallucination. Nonetheless, some have raised concerns about the ability of LLMs to contribute to nuclear, chemical and biological weapons proliferation (CBRN). Put simply, could a person learn enough through an interaction with an LLM to produce a weapon? And if so, would this differ from what the individual could learn by scouring the internet?”

“Poll: Voters Support Bringing EU-Style AI Regulations to the US, Prioritizing Safety Over Speed in Research”

New from the Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute: “A new poll conducted by the Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute (AIPI) shows that the American public supports the passage of the European Union’s AI Act by nearly a 4:1 margin, and 64% support similar regulation in the United States.”

“The survey showed strong public support for a slowdown of AI research and skepticism of tech companies; respondents decisively back federal regulation that curbs rapid AI research and development by private companies. By a 2:1 margin, respondents agree that it is the role of the government to make sure companies don’t go too fast when developing AI models. 75% say the government should restrict what private companies can do when training AI models.”

“AIPI also surveyed public opinion on risky research initiatives across AI development and dangerous virus research—particularly relevant as scientists and the federal government look to revise guidelines on potential pandemic pathogens. 83% of the public is in agreement that the federal government should implement renewed oversight protocols on research experiments using dangerous viruses. When prompted about AI being in such research, 68% say that we should be concerned that bad actors could use AI to create biological weapons.”

“Shaping the Future US Bioeconomy Through Safety, Security, Sustainability, and Social Responsibility”

Attal-Juncqua et al. recently published this article in Trends in Biotechnology: “Biomanufacturing practitioners and researchers describe the norms that should govern the growing, global field, to include safety, security, sustainability, and social responsibility. These ‘4S Principles’ should be broadly adopted so that the future of the field may provide the greatest benefits to society.”

“Stability of Pathogens on Banknotes and Coins: A Narrative Review”

Meister et al. recently published this article in the Journal of Medical Virology: “For the prevention of infectious diseases, knowledge about potential transmission routes is essential. Pathogens can be transmitted directly (i.e. respiratory droplets, hand-to-hand contact) or indirectly via contaminated surfaces (fomites). In particular, frequently touched objects/surfaces may serve as transmission vehicles for different clinically relevant bacterial, fungal, and viral pathogens. Banknotes and coins offer ample surface area and are frequently exchanged between individuals. Consequently, many concerns have been raised in the recent past, that banknotes and coins could serve as vectors for the transmission of disease-causing microorganisms. This review summarizes the latest research on the potential of paper currency and coins to serve as sources of pathogenic viral, bacterial, and fungal agents. In contrast to the current perception of banknotes and coins as important transmission vehicles, current evidence suggests, that banknotes and coins do not pose a particular risk of pathogen infection for the public.”

What We’re Watching 🍿

The Biological Weapons Convention and the Need for a Compliance and Verification Mechanism

New from the Geneva Center for Security Policy: “The GCSP’s Head of Arms Control and Disarmament speaks to three experts on biological security from King’s College London about the start of discussions by the States Parties to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) on compliance and verification. They discuss why a compliance and verification mechanism is needed, what can be learned from the previous verification efforts in other contexts, and what has changed in how verification is done since this was last discussed in the BWC framework over 20 years ago. The experts also discuss what the key elements of any mechanism will need to be, what are the most important bio security incidents, and how countries are working on their preparedness to respond to such incidents. The GCSP will be following the discussions in the BWC closely and stands ready to be a platform to bring together all stakeholders to generate new thinking to strengthen the BWC to respond to today’s bio security challenges.”

What We’re Listening To 🎧

PODCAST | Rethinking Our Defense Against Unknown Biothreats

“Dr. Harshini Mukundan, Program Manager and Scientist for Chemical and Biological Technologies at the Office of National and Homeland Security, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and visiting Scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory sat down with host and AAAS STPF fellow Adejare (Jay) Atanda to discuss her research on pathogen agnostic disease detection and diagnostics, why this is important for biodefense against unknown biothreats, the role of technological innovations in pathogen agnostic detection and diagnostics, limitations of existing technological tools, and the vital importance of public-private partnerships in transforming this field. This conversation also covered the challenges women, people of color and immigrants face as scientists, the importance of mentorship in mitigating these challenges and her own mentorship and advocacy work to educate young girls about STEM careers as a AAAS IF/THEN STEM Ambassador and guest on CBS’s “Mission Unstoppable” among other efforts.”

Listen here.

Poisons and Pestilence: 20 Bonus Episode: No Fire No Thunder with Alastair Hay

Check out this episode with Alastair Hay, discussing his work as a toxicologist as it relates to the prohibition of chemical weapons.

61st ISODARCO Course: Nuclear Order and International Security after Ukraine

“The war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on global security, reviving nuclear fears, undermining the prospects for arms control, and shattering many of the norms and constraints that were the foundation of European security. ISODARCO 2024 will examine the global nuclear order in light of the Ukraine war, focusing on the states, the policies and the technologies that will shape the future in a much more difficult environment. How will we cope with this more dangerous world?”

This course will take place January 7-14, 2024, at the University of Trento. Learn more and register here.

International Conference, CBRNE Research & Innovation

“Worldwide, researchers, responders and industrial capacities have been commited to provide adapted response to these challenges.”

“Looking forward to your proposals for communication and to welcoming you at Strasbourg in March 2024!”

Learn more here.

cbrne-ri-conference-2024-_-flyer-ppt-v06.11.2023-1 Download

Registration for GHS 2024 Now Open

Vote: 2023 Arms Control Person(s) of the Year Nominees

“Since 2007, the independent, nongovernmental Arms Control Association has nominated individuals and institutions that have, in the previous 12 months, advanced effective arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament solutions and raised awareness of the threats posed by mass casualty weapons.”

“In a field that is often focused on grave threats and negative developments, the Arms Control Person(s) of the Year contest aims to highlight several positive initiatives—some at the grassroots level, some on the international scale—designed to advance disarmament, nuclear security, and international peace, security, and justice.”

“Voting will take place between Dec. 8, 2023, and Jan. 11, 2024. The results will be announced on Jan. 12, 2024. Follow the discussion on social media using the hashtag #ACPOY2023.”

Learn about the nominees and vote here.

Pandora Report 12.15.2023

December 15, 2023 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week covers the FDA’s ongoing investigation into contaminated applesauce, the passing of Gao Yaojie-an activist responsible for bringing to light the extent of China’s AIDS epidemic-, and more.

*Biodefense MS Graduates Riley Flynn and Sophie Hirshfield at GMU’s 2023 Winter Commencement Ceremony*

FDA Leadership Says Tainted Applesauce Pouches May Have Been Intentionally Contaminated

Cinnamon applesauce pouches available Weis, WanaBanana, and Schnucks have been pulled from shelves after they were found to be contaminated with lead. Dozens of children in the United States have been sickened by the tainted products. Now, the FDA’s Deputy Commissioner for Human Foods, Jim Jones, says they may have been intentionally contaminated.

In an interview with Politico, Jones said “We’re still in the midst of our investigation. But so far all of the signals we’re getting lead to an intentional act on the part of someone in the supply chain and we’re trying to sort of figure that out.” All of the pouches in question were linked to a manufacturing facility in Ecuador that the FDA is currently inspecting.

‘“My instinct is they didn’t think this product was going to end up in a country with a robust regulatory process,” Jones said. “They thought it was going to end up in places that did not have the ability to detect something like this.”’

Politico further explained that “The FDA continues to investigate a number of theories for how the pouches became contaminated, and has not drawn any conclusions about the way the lead was added, why or by whom. The FDA says it currently believes the adulteration is “economically motivated.” That generally refers to ingredients being altered in order to make products appear higher in value, often so companies can produce a cheaper item and sell it at an elevated price.”

“The agency and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have collaborated with state and local health authorities as well as Ecuadorian authorities to trace the origin of the cinnamon in the applesauce pouches, which is believed to be the source of the lead contamination. More than 60 U.S. children under the age of 6 have tested positive for lead poisoning after consuming the pouches — some at levels more than 500 times the acceptable threshold for lead, according to The Washington Post.”

Gao Yaojie, Chinese Physician and Self-Exiled AIDS Activist, Dead at 95

Gao Yaojie, a gynecologist and well-known AIDS activist, died on December 10 in New York City. Gao, formerly based in China’s Henan province, was famous for her work to expose the outbreak of HIV/AIDS in the country in the 1990s and 2000s. The outbreak was large in scale and primarily driven by the country’s Plasma Economy, which arose because of restrictions on foreign imports of blood products in the 1990s. This resulted in blood plasma donation becoming a way for rural populations to make money in government-supported plasma donation centers. However, unsafe practices like repeated use of unsterilized needles and pooling multiple donors’ blood during the plasmapheresis allowed HIV to spread widely.

Because of the Chinese government’s efforts to suppress reporting on this epidemic, poor rural populations were left largely unaware of the dangers of plasma donation and the public in general was unaware of the severity of the crisis. Gao was one of the first to speak publicly about the outbreak, helping draw the attention of media outlets. She later told documentary filmmakers about her motivations for doing this, saying, “My driving thought is: how can I save more people from dying of this disease? We each only live one life.”

It is estimated that at least one million Chinese were infected with HIV during this epidemic, highlighting the importance of Gao’s and others’ bravery. For this, she garnered praise from the United Nations, several Western organizations, and even Hillary Clinton. This rising fame led to her being placed under house arrest in 2007, with about 50 police preventing her from traveling to the United States to accept an award recognizing her work. In response to this, she told NPR “I think they feel I got in the way of their political achievements and their official careers…Otherwise, why would they put me under house arrest? What law did I break to warrant mobilizing all these police?”

NPR further explained her activities later in life in their article on her passing, writing: “Despite pressure from Henan provincial authorities to stop publicizing the AIDS crisis, she continued her work, using all the proceeds from her books and pamphlets to support AIDS families, especially children orphaned by the disease or the many suicides that it caused.”

“Restrictions on her movement began hindering in work in China, however, and in 2009, she abruptly fled to the US, after fearing she would be put under house arrest again. Many admirers continued to visit her apartment in West Harlem, including a group of young Chinese students who kept her company in the loneliness of exile.”

‘”Many Chinese regarded her as a hero, and when they came to New York, if they didn’t know how to contact her , [sic] they would ask me. I would ask them for an email written in Chinese and would forward it to her. So far as I know, she always wrote back to those people and welcomed them to come visit,” remembers Andrew Nathan, a political science professor at Columbia University who handled much of Gao’s affairs in New York.”

“The Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention in 2023: Glimmers of Progress Set Against a Troubled Geopolitical Landscape”

Experts at CSR’s Nolan Center, including Biodefense PhD Program alumna and current faculty member Saskia Popescu, recently authored this blog post focused on the BWC’s potential for success in verification, universalization and effective implementation in Africa, and the creation of an International Agency for Biological Safety. They explain in their introduction: “For nearly two decades, efforts to strengthen the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) were in stasis, with opportunities missed and States Parties unable to agree to definite action. States Parties arrived at the Review Conference last year facing a growing biological weapons threat—augmented by rapidly converging complimentary technologies—coupled with a status quo in the BWC that was insufficient for the task. Yet nations drove a breakthrough: the consensus achieved at last year’s Review Conference proved that action is still possible despite the challenging international security environment.”

“In a world in which biological threats and vulnerabilities are exceedingly complex, there is a critical need to reinforce relationships among global experts, national governments, and civil society. Over the past two weeks, these stakeholders have met to identify, examine, and develop specific and effective measures to strengthen the Convention. An unwavering theme throughout the Meeting of States Parties underscored that preparedness and resilience are investments, rather than costs, reinforcing the deterrence by denial efforts CSR continues to promote. Although the challenging international security environment continues to hinder progress there are glimmers of genuine progress across several fronts…”

“Biosecurity in the Americas: Regional Threat Assessment”

A new from UMD’s START, co-authored by Biodefense MS Program alumna Alexandra Williams: “This publication, currently available in Spanish, provides a breadth and depth of focuses as a high-level assessment of the Central and South America regions and introduction to key topics as:

The needed expansion of understanding of the differences and areas of collaboration between the concepts of biosafety and biosecurity,
Existing international obligations to biosecurity through the BWC and UNSC Resolution 1540,
How biosecurity applies to and may differ in application across a variety of facility types that engage in biological research or production, whether private or public laboratories, agricultural or university-based facilities,
Biosecurity risks that include proliferation, bioterrorism, agroterrorism, and biocrime,
The five pillars and mechanisms of biosecurity,
Lastly, the application of biosecurity in the Central and South American regions.”

“NTI|Bio Convenes Workshop on Disincentivizing State Bioweapons Development and Use”

From NTI: “A week ahead of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) Working Group meetings in Geneva, Switzerland, NTI | bio convened a workshop on “Disincentivizing State Bioweapons Development and Use.” This two-day workshop on November 29 and 30 brought together academics, diplomats, biosecurity experts, and government policy makers to begin developing a cross-disciplinary thought and practice community to explore and develop potential disincentivizing solutions. Current thinking and policy on disincentivizing bioweapons acquisition and use is underdeveloped—especially by comparison with the nuclear security field.”

‘“We launched this effort because we see the need for more rigorous thinking on effective approaches to making bioweapons unattractive to nation-states,” said NTI | bio Vice President Jaime Yassif. “NTI’s goal is to bridge theory and practical policy-relevant approaches to develop new ideas that can invigorate international efforts to reduce biological threats.”’

Biodefense Graduate Program Director Gregory Koblentz and Associate Professor Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley both participated in this workshop. Read more about it here.

“Great Powers and the Norms of the BW Prohibition Regime”

A new working paper from CBWNet: “The United States of America and the Soviet Union were instrumental in creating the biological weapons prohibition regime more than 50 years ago. This has left the regime with a big gap in its normative structure related to the verification of treaty compliance. The working paper by Alexander Kelle and Eva Siegmann analyses great power involvement in several areas of regime implementation and concludes that none of the great powers, including China, has supported the addition of declaration and inspection norms. While recent US and Chinese initiatives could still lead to a strengthening of the regime in different areas, Russian policies, most notably false accusations against the US and others, threaten to undermine the regime.”

“AI and Biorisk: An Explainer”

A new explainer from Georgetown’s CSET: “Recent government directives, international conferences, and media headlines reflect growing concern that artificial intelligence could exacerbate biological threats. When it comes to biorisk, AI tools are cited as enablers that lower information barriers, enhance novel biothreat design, or otherwise increase a malicious actor’s capabilities. In this explainer, CSET Biorisk Research Fellow Steph Batalis summarizes the state of the biorisk landscape with and without AI.”

“Bio X AI: Policy Recommendations For A New Frontier”

Jeffrey et al. discuss the work of the Federation of American Scientists’ Bio x AI Policy Development Sprint in this piece, explaining in their introduction: “Artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to yield tremendous advances in our basic understanding of biological systems, as well as significant benefits for health, agriculture, and the broader bioeconomy. However, AI tools, if misused or developed irresponsibly, can also pose risks to biosecurity. The landscape of biosecurity risks related to AI is complex and rapidly changing, and understanding the range of issues requires diverse perspectives and expertise. To better understand and address these challenges, FAS initiated the Bio x AI Policy Development Sprint to solicit creative recommendations from subject matter experts in the life sciences, biosecurity, and governance of emerging technologies. Through a competitive selection process, FAS identified six promising ideas and, over the course of seven weeks, worked closely with the authors to develop them into the recommendations included here. These recommendations cover a diverse range of topics to match the diversity of challenges that AI poses in the life sciences. We believe that these will help inform policy development on these topics, including the work of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnologies.”

“Push to Improve Biosecurity in the Age of Genetic Engineering”

Wilmot James recently authored this opinion piece for Business Day, explaining in part “The possibility of using AI to develop bioweapons raises additional concerns, and remains uncharted territory. While the intersection of AI and biotechnology holds immense potential for positive applications in healthcare, research and diagnostics, it also poses risks if misused. AI algorithms could be employed to analyse vast genetic data sets and identify specific sequences for manipulation. This could accelerate the process of genetic engineering, allowing for the creation of more efficient and potentially harmful pathogens…To safeguard against such threats, multilateral and public-private sector agreements and regulations to govern the ethical use of AI in science, emphasising the prohibition of bioweapon development, should be established, with strong oversight committees responsible for assessing the ethical implications at the intersection of AI and biotechnology. These committees should include experts in AI, virology, bioethics and global health security.”

“Sounding the Alarm on Anti-Science”

Margaret Winchester provides background and overview of Peter Hotez’s latest book-The Deadly Rise of Anti-Science-in this piece for Health Affairs: “In his book, The Deadly Rise of Anti-Science, Hotez, professor and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, and co-director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital, paints a bleak picture of public science denial during the pandemic, embedded in historic context. He tells the story of systematic anti-science efforts from his view in the trenches—and as a personal target for anti-science activists. This book, and his commentary in our December issue of Health Affairs on global lessons from COVID-19, highlight the very real effects of this movement, including lives lost, undermined public health efforts, foregone vaccinations, social schisms, and more, that will be felt for generations to come. As he writes, “anti-science now kills more Americans than global terrorism, or other deadly societal forces and social determinants.” Drawing from multiple sources, he estimates that approximately 200,000 people needlessly died in the US after COVID-19 vaccines became widely available.”

EU vs Disinfo Disinformation Review

The most recent edition of EU vs Disinfo’s Disinformation Review is now available and features multiple sections focused on Russia’s continued use of alleged US biological weapons laboratories as a bogeyman. Be sure to check it out for fantastic lines such as “If the only tool that you have is a hammer, everything looks like a biolab,” and “At a staged event, Putin mumbled out an announcement to veterans and the wider public that his regime would continue to rule over Russia after an orchestrated ritual not to be confused with an event known as an ‘election’ in the free world.”

2023 State of the Bioeconomy

From BIOISAC: “We have a lot to celebrate as we close 2023 and just over 12 months since the Executive Order calling for a safe, secure bioeconomy. Join us as we recap the activity, publications, outcomes, and – we will of course share a glimpse of the “behind the scenes” conversations from our 3 regional events and our one-day “Closing the Knowledge Gaps” event, our two-day table top training and the resulting “Going Viral: Bioeconomy Defense TTX” report, and, of course, the industry-demanded outputs from our hardware/software device security workgroup report and supplements, “Fortifying the Bioeconomy” as well as the Bioeconomy Security Questionnaire and Instrument Disposal Guide. We also have a lot left to do! We plan to share a few of our goals for 2024 and our upcoming regional events schedule.”

“Join us December 19th at 2pm Eastern-US for a live discussion.” Register here.

Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria (PACCARB) Virtual Meeting

“The Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria (PACCARB) provides advice, information, and recommendations to the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS Secretary). The council supports and evaluates U.S. government activities focused on fighting antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in human health, animal health, and environmental health. Using this One Health approach, members of the PACCARB have expertise from a range of backgrounds, including academia, industry, public health, advocacy, veterinary, and agricultural production.”

“The PACCARB was established under Executive Order 13676 and included in the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness and Advancing Innovation Act of 2019 (PAHPAIA). Since 2019, the President has given authority to the HHS Secretary as the primary recipient of PACCARB recommendations. Additional information on the authority and activities of the PACCARB can be found on the About Us page in the charter.”

“As a federal advisory committee, the PACCARB looks to engage with the public and all AMR stakeholders. The council holds several public meetings every year both in-person and live streamed on the HHS.gov website. These meetings are open to anyone with an interest in combating AMR. See how to get involved!”

This virtual meeting will take place on December 20 from 9-4 EST. Learn more here.

61st ISODARCO Course: Nuclear Order and International Security after Ukraine

This course will take place January 7-14, 2024, at the University of Trento. Learn more and register here.

International Conference, CBRNE Research & Innovation

“Worldwide, researchers, responders and industrial capacities have been commited to provide adapted response to these challenges.”

“Looking forward to your proposals for communication and to welcoming you at Strasbourg in March 2024!”

Learn more here.

cbrne-ri-conference-2024-_-flyer-ppt-v06.11.2023-1 Download

Registration for GHS 2024 Now Open

WHO Announces Proposed Members of Technical Advisory Group on Response Use of the Life Sciences and Dual-Use Research

The WHO recently announced its proposed membership of its Technical Advisory Group on Responsible use of the life sciences and dual-use research (TAG-RULS DUR). According to WHO, “As per WHO processes, there will be now a two-week public consultation period for WHO to receive feedback on the proposed TAG-RULS DUR members and set in place the modalities for the TAG-RULS DUR’s first meeting, which is planned to take place following this consultation period…The final membership to the TAG-RULS DUR is subject to the above-mentioned public consultation period and relevant WHO practices and procedures.”

The proposed membership and instructions for providing commentary on the individuals included are both available here.

Vote: 2023 Arms Control Person(s) of the Year Nominees

“Voting will take place between Dec. 8, 2023, and Jan. 11, 2024. The results will be announced on Jan. 12, 2024. Follow the discussion on social media using the hashtag #ACPOY2023.”

Learn about the nominees and vote here.

Pandora Report: 11.11.2022

November 11, 2022 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

This week we start by sharing some fun updates from the Biodefense Graduate Program and discussing the current situation with influenza, RSV, and COVID-19 in the United States. We also discuss new publications, including ones that discuss hypothetical BW use in Ukraine, highly pathogenic avian influenza in the US, and a new episode of the Poisons and Pestilence podcast focused on the M device. This issue concludes with details on a number of upcoming and recorded events (including a virtual open house for the Biodefense PhD Program!) and announcements, including open applications for the Biotechnology Innovation & International Security Fellowship at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. Happy Friday and, as always, please wash your hands.

George Mason Biodefense MS Students Tour BSL-3 Facility on Science and Technology Campus

Last month, students in the Biodefense Graduate Program made the trek from Arlington to Manassas, VA to tour George Mason’s Biomedical Research Laboratory (BRL) on our Science and Technology Campus. Check out the Schar School’s article about their tour of the 52,000-square-foot, $50 million, NIAID-funded facility here. If you would like to have this and similar opportunities in the future, check out our upcoming PhD virtual open house coming up this Wednesday at 7 pm EST.

Schar School Biodefense MS Students and Adjunct Professor Scott Wollek joined by Biodefense Graduate Program Director Dr. Gregory Koblentz (center) and Drs. Rachel Pepin and Farhang Alem of the BRL (far right)

If the Time Change Wasn’t Bad Enough…We Might Have a Triple Threat On Our Hands

As the days get shorter and colder, the United States is also experiencing upticks in influenza, RSV, and (of course) COVID-19. Children’s hospitals are already struggling with the burden this is causing and there are further concerns that hospitals across the country will become overwhelmed as we head into winter. In response, some health departments have ramped up drive-thru testing for COVID-19 while also offering drive-thru RSV and flu testing at those same sites. Some suspect this convergence and uncharacteristic spikes in respiratory illnesses may be the result of an immunity gap created by lack of exposure to other illnesses during harsher COVID-19-related restrictions.

CDC reported this week the “cumulative hospitalization rate in the FluSurv-NET system is higher than the rate observed in week 44 during every previous season since 2010-2011.” The agency also estimates that in this flu season so far, there have been at least 2.8 million cases, 23,000 hospitalizations, and 1,300 deaths associated with influenza. This year was also marked by an early increase in seasonal flu activity in the US, following earlier concerns that a rough flu season in the southern hemisphere provided warning of the same coming for the north. The US notably had historically low interseasonal influenza cases in 2020 when people were much more cautious and consistently took actions such as social distancing, masking, increased hand washing, etc.

This year has also brought an increase in cases of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections, with CDC reporting its surveillance “has shown an increase in RSV detections and RSV-associated emergency department visits and hospitalizations in multiple U.S. regions, with some regions nearing seasonal peak levels. Clinicians and public health professionals should be aware of increases in respiratory viruses, including RSV.” The US saw a much higher than normal rate of RSV infections over the summer that then surged throughout September and October. RSV causes mild, cold-like symptoms that most people typically recover from in one or two weeks. However, RSV can be serious in some cases, with infants and older adults at particular risk. In the US, RSV is the most common cause of bronchiolitis and pneumonia in children under the age of one. Annually, the US averages 60,000 pediatric RSV hospitalizations, but this is likely to be exceeded this year.

RSV hospitalization rates by season for children (ages 0-17) in the United States. Source: CDC RSV-NET Interactive Dashboard

While the updated, bivalent COVID-19 vaccines have proven more effective against BA.4/5 subvariants than original offerings, new concerns loom as the so-called “Scrabble variants” spread. While the BA.5 subvariant still accounts for about 40% of US cases, others like BQ.1, BQ.11, BA.4.6, and BF.7 are rising along with XBB and B.1.1.529. If this collection of subvariants is confusing to you, you’re not alone, as Dr. Peter Hotez acknowledged in initially describing them as “Scrabble variants”.

There is debate about how much the general public needs to understand about all these different subvariants. Some argue that the granular details differentiating between these is unhelpful and communication should instead focus on risk. However, others like Dr. Hotez argue it is important that people understand the differences. He points to the updated vaccines having been formulated for the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, the latter of which BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are descendants. This likely means the updated vaccines do offer protection against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, making it important to communicate these facts to the general public. Others also argue that easier names should be offered to the public so that subvariants do not blend together and cause people to underestimate new emerging strains.

While these new subvariants are new enough that there is no available vaccine efficacy data on them yet, consensus is largely that a “booster is a booster” and that it is still worth getting one if you have not already. Both the bivalent vaccines and antivirals like Paxlovid are expected to remain effective against severe outcomes with these subvariants. However, US vaccine rates with the updated versions have remained underwhelming, with rates by age groups ranging from nearly 27% in adults over the age of 65 to under 12% for adults ages 18-65.

Total population vaccine rates with bivalent booster by state, Source: CDC COVID Data Tracker

The weather is cooling and we are all increasingly spending more time inside at a time with relaxed public health measures in place. These are each viral respiratory infections, so it is important to be vigilant on measures like covering coughs and sneezes, washing hands appropriately, staying home when sick, and so on.

Important to note is that there is currently no vaccine available for RSV, though certain children may qualify to receive preventative injections of the monoclonal antibody product palivizumab during RSV seasons. Furthermore, there is no antiviral for RSV, so treatment is supportive care. There are antivirals for COVID-19 and influenza available and, of course, it is important to be vaccinated for both of these if at all possible. You can schedule appointments to get your seasonal flu shot and updated COVID-19 booster at the same at plenty of locations, many of which can be found through Vaccines.gov’s search tool.

“Les « Frankenvirus » au cœur des débats, après l’émergence du Covid-19”

In this Le Monde article on gain of function research, Biodefense Graduate Program Director Dr. Gregory Koblentz discusses the announcements of 27 new BSL-4 laboratories since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and what these announcements, in light of loose international standards on biosafety, might mean in terms of increased risks of accidents.

“The World is Prepared for the Unthinkable”

This recent piece in CFR’s Think Global Health discusses the likely consequences of biological weapons use in Ukraine. McCloskey, Nuzzo, and Heymann write “A biological attack in Ukraine or anywhere would have profound and far-reaching political, military, and health consequences. The immediate impact would be to exacerbate the already profound human suffering that is occurring in the country and it would place further strain on already struggling health systems. Depending on the pathogen used, a biological attack could present risks beyond Ukraine. Unlike other weapons, biological agents have the potential to spread widely. Neighboring countries could be at immediate risk, but, as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has shown, diseases can travel widely around the globe before they are noticed.”

“Strategic Intelligence Assessment and Data on Domestic Terrorism”

This week the FBI and Department of Homeland Security released their second Strategic Intelligence Assessment and Data on Domestic Terrorism report. Overall, it details a continued increase in domestic terrorism investigations in the US, with the government opening 1,400 investigations in 2020 versus the average of 1,000 seen in previous years. It does note that this was in part because of investigations opened as a result of the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, but also that this anomaly does not fully account for the significant increase in that number. Most of these investigations were related to “…racially or ethnically driven violent extremism, anti-government or anti-authority violent extremism, and civil unrest.”

Other interesting points in the report include the that, as Lawfare explains, “…despite the increased threat, the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) does not employ a single analyst focused exclusively on domestic terrorism. One could argue that the NCTC is hamstrung in some respects because its mandate, or at least a narrow reading of its statute, limits its ability to focus on terrorism not related to the international variety of groups like the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. At the same time, the assessment states Homeland Security employs only ten analysts for domestic extremism threats. However, that number represents a meteoric increase from five years earlier, when there was not a dedicated domestic terrorism analyst squad.”

“Flu: When Spillovers Spill Over”

As the authors of this Think Global Health piece explain, the US is currently in the middle of one of the largest outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in animals in US history. At least 49 million birds from backyard and commercial flocks have been culled so far in 43 states as this year’s outbreaks continue.

The authors write “Case counts and distributions in wild birds have been equally astounding. Department of Agriculture surveillance efforts in 2022 have detected HPAI in wild birds in almost every state in the continental United States, plus Alaska. Active surveillance has found more than 3,300 infected wild birds. This extensive transmission through wild avian species is more pronounced than in previous U.S. epizootics, or animal epidemics; in the 2014-2015 outbreak, fewer than 100 wild birds tested positive for H5, primarily along the Pacific Flyway, one of four major North American migration routes for birds, especially waterfowl. Affected species in this outbreak range from the relatively abundant Canada goose and wild turkey to the more vulnerable bald eagle and snowy owl. How many of these birds are actually symptomatic is difficult to determine, as detections often occur opportunistically through the sampling of dead birds and hunter harvests. Mortality in wild species is varied with some species like gulls, terns, geese, and raptors experiencing higher than usual rates, while songbirds are relatively unaffected, even asymptomatic. The variation in morbidity and mortality makes this virus even harder to track.”

“Atoms are Local”

In this essay Elliot Hershberg, a PhD student in genetics at Stanford and the mind behind The Century of Biology, discusses the industrialization of biotech and proposes the biologization of industry as a preferable alternative. He explains this concept, writing “Biologization of Industry — Many people default to a mindset of industrialization. But, why naively inherit a metaphor that dominated 19th century Britain? Biology is the ultimate distributed manufacturing platform. We are keen to explore and make true future biotechnologies that enable people to more directly and freely make whatever they need where-ever they are.”

“Compendium of Best Practices on the Engagement and Advancement of Women in Chemical Safety and Security”

From the UN Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute: “The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and the United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI), in close cooperation with international partners, stakeholders and practitioners, recognized the asymmetric portrayal of women and men in chemical safety and security; both in global literature and policy debates. To address this gap, amplify women’s voices and promote opportunities to increase their engagement in this field, OPCW and UNICRI, with the generous funding of the European Commission, developed the Compendium on “Engagement and Advancement of Women in Chemical Safety and Security”.”

“The Compendium aims to provide policymakers and practitioners in the field of chemistry with guidance to promote gender inclusivity in the chemical safety and security sector through the identification of best practices in recruiting, training and promoting gender-inclusive careers.”

What We’re Listening To 🎧

Poisons and Pestilence-13 Bonus Episode: The M Device with Simon Jones

Dr. Brett Edwards has released a new episode of his podcast, Poisons and Pestilence, covering the M device (a canister device used to release CW agents) with historian Simon Jones. In addition to the podcast, you can find Jones’ work on the M device here where he explains, “During the closing stages of the military intervention in North Russia in 1919, British chemical munitions were improvised as effective aerial bombs for the first time in history.”

Schar School PhD Virtual Open House Session

Come learn about the Schar School’s doctoral programs (including the Biodefense PhD!) and interact with faculty at this online open house. This event will take place Wednesday, November 16, at 7 pm EST. Register here.

Applying Lessons Learned from COVID-19 Research and Development to Future Epidemics

“The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Forum on Microbial Threats; Forum on Drug Discovery, Development, and Translation; and the Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Disasters and Emergencies will organize and conduct a public, hybrid workshop on December 7-8, 2022 to explore how innovative approaches in research sparked by COVID-19 can enhance health systems preparedness and responses to emerging infectious diseases. This workshop will consider basic scientific infrastructure and essential capabilities to support medical and behavioral countermeasures that were deployed during the COVID-19 pandemic response. Workshop participants will reflect on critical scientific infrastructure for stakeholder coordination and innovations that can facilitate rapid and effective responses to emerging infectious disease threats.” Register here.

Strategies to Reach Zero Dose Children in Fragile States and Cross-border Contexts in Africa

“CORE Group and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance invite you to register to attend a webinar where experts will discuss the importance of reaching Zero Dose Children and how addressing the challenges in reaching communities with immunization interventions could diminish disease outbreaks and health system disruptions. The webinar will also provide a platform for discussions on innovative ways to reach zero dose children beyond traditional government partners in fragile contexts. It will be an opportunity le learn more about the Zero-Dose Immunization Programme (ZIP) and will feature speakers from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, International Rescue Committee(IRC), CORE Group Polio Project (CGPP) and World Vision.” This event will be hosted virtually on November 15, at 10 am EST. Register here.

ICMYI: 8th African Conference on One Health and Biosecurity

The 8th African Conference on One Health and Biosecurity concluded recently in Lagos, Nigeria. The conference aimed to “…present a unique forum to raise National, Regional and Continental awareness and engage in deep introspection and robust interactions on existing health security measures and how to strengthen them, as the first urgent step toward mitigation of emerging biological threats in Africa.” Recordings from the conference are available on the Global Emerging Pathogens Treatment Consortium (GET) Africa YouTube Channel. You can read the conference’s “Communiqué of 8th African Conference on One Health and Biosecurity themed Strengthening Health Security and Mitigating Biological Threats in Africa”.

ICYMI: Briefings in Preparation for the Ninth BWC Review Conference

Check out the recording for this event on UNIDIR’s YouTube channel. “This virtual event brought together the authors of the latest UNIDIR publications on BWC topics to provide short outlines of the key insights and ideas in their respective reports for State Parties to consider ahead of the Review Conference. These include verification, advances in science and technology, international cooperation, and potential outcomes of the Review Conference. The presentations was followed by a moderated interactive discussion with the participants.”

Biotechnology Innovation and International Security Fellowships at Stanford University

“Stanford is seeking Biotechnology Innovation & International Security Fellows, to be appointed for one year renewable for a second. Fellows will join a community of scholars hosted by the Center for International Security & Cooperation (CISAC), Bio.Polis, & the Department of Bioengineering, with mentoring by one or more faculty identified by each fellow. Applications are being accepted thru 2 December 2022.” Learn more and apply here.

START Announces Upcoming CBRN Data Suite and Portal

The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)’s Unconventional Weapons and Technology division recently announced the creation of their CBRN Data Suite and Portal. The data suite is set to open in December and “…includes an event-level and an actor-level dataset. The event-level dataset is based on UWT’s Profiles of Incidents Involving CBRN and Non-state Actors (POICN) database, and is scheduled to be updated through May 2022 by the time the Data Suite and Portal goes live at the end of the year.”

“The actor-level dataset is a newly created dataset modeled after the Chemical and Biological Non-State Adversaries Database (CABNSAD) and the Radiological and Nuclear Non-State Adversaries (RANNSAD) dataset, with the new CBRN Actor dataset subsuming both CABNSAD and RANNSAD. As with the event-level dataset, the actor-level dataset is scheduled to be updated through May 2022 by the time the Data Suite and Portal launch.”

NIST Soliciting Feedback on Project Proposal to Improve Cybersecurity at Water Utility Facilities

The National Institute of Standards and Technology’s National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence (NCCoE) recently released a white paper discussing ways to improve utility management, operations, and service delivery at water utility sites. The paper explains that “The NCCoE has undertaken a program to determine common scenarios for cybersecurity risks among WWS utilities. This project will profile several areas, including asset management, data integrity, remote access, and network segmentation. The NCCoE will also explore the utilization of existing commercially available products to mitigate and manage these risks. The findings can be used as a starting point by WWS utilities in mitigating cybersecurity risks for their specific production environment. This project will result in a freely available NIST Cybersecurity Practice Guide.” Read the announcement and submit feedback here.

MAY THE FOURTH BE WITH YOU

May 4, 2022May 4, 2022 by dkellogg97, posted in Pandora Report

First, a little Biodefense Graduate Program-Star Wars parody to kick off the festivities.

Happy Star Wars Day! A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away…there were also biological weapons, believe it or not. While certainly not an elegant weapon for a more civilized age, these bioweapons (BW) varied in sophistication and caused their victims much suffering. They were a threat in most major conflicts throughout the history of the galaxy and were a research priority of the Galactic Empire. Fortunately, the Alliance to Restore the Republic prioritized destroying Imperial BW facilities throughout the Galactic Civil War and beyond. Join us for a recap on uses of BW throughout Star Wars Canon and Legends and don’t forget to re-watch your favorite Star Wars movie or show (and by that we mean Episode V) today and see if you can spot some of these examples. This is the way.

Refresher: Canon vs Legends

Since the premier of Episode IV: A New Hope in 1977, the epic space-opera franchise we all know and love has grown massively. Today this includes the nine films of the Skywalker Saga, the two anthology films (Rogue One and Solo), a whole array of TV shows from Droids and Ewoks in the 1980s to The Mandalorian and The Book of Boba Fett today, and countless books, games, and comics. It is a lot to keep up with. Originally, everything outside of the films and certain other productions (like The Clone Wars TV show) was considered the Expanded Universe (EU). The EU covered events from more than 36,000 years before the events of Episode I: The Phantom Menace in the Dawn of the Jedi comics to over 100 years after Episode VI: Return of the Jedi in the Legacy comics. Interestingly, the EU is also technically older than the films themselves. This is because the novel adaptation of Episode IV was released six months before the film in 1977.

Anyway, in 2014, in preparation for the sequel trilogy, Lucasfilm (acquired by Disney in 2012) announced that everything previously considered EU was going to be re-branded as Legends and would no longer be adhered to. This meant that there was now new continuity consisting of the original six films, Star Wars: The Clone Wars, and any future material- this became the official canon. In January 2021, Lucasfilm announced six new eras dividing all of the canonical content to help organize the expanding franchise: The High Republic, The Fall of the Jedi, The Reign of the Empire, The Age of Rebellion, The New Republic, and The Rise of the First Order. Right now, the canon consists of 12 movies (the nine films of the Skywalker Saga, the two anthology films, and the 2008 animated film, The Clone Wars), several television shows (The Clone Wars, Rebels, The Mandalorian and The Book of Boba Fett), EA’s video games (Battlefront, Battlefront II, Jedi: Fallen Order, and Squadrons), and a ton of books. Everything published or produced after 2014 is canon; everything else is considered Legends. There are at least 381 novels under the franchise, including famous series like Timothy Zahn’s Thrawn Trilogy and his follow-up Thrawn Duology. There are also well over 100 comic series between those published by Marvel and Dark Horse Comics. So, as you can imagine, there have been plenty of opportunities over the years for bioweapons to make an appearance or two in this franchise, some of which we’ll cover today.

Biological and Toxin Weapons in Star Wars Canon

Do you recall any examples of BW use in Star Wars over the years? There is a great chance you don’t. Fortunately, some of us had a lot of free time before graduate school and, as a result, are all too aware of these instances. While we don’t know a ton about BW use in the early history of the canon, we do know that the Empire was very interested in these weapons (particularly neurotoxins and defoliants) throughout its rule. The Separatists during the days of the Galactic Republic were also interested in biological and toxin weapons, most notably Blue Shadow Virus.

Fall of the Jedi- Blue Shadow Virus

This virus makes appearances in both Canon and Legends stories, but in the canon, it is said to have spread across the galaxy like a plague many years before the Clone Wars. Blue Shadow Virus is a waterborne virus that the majority of carbon-based lifeforms were susceptible to. It is said that patients infected with this virus had only 48 hours before the resulting disease would prove fatal, with 96% of carbon-based life-forms succumbing to the virus. Patients generally experienced coughing and fatigue in addition to developing visible blue veins over their bodies. Originally infamous for being incurable, it was discovered that a cure (described in the franchise as an antidote) could be derived from the reeska root, a rare plant originating only on the planet Iego in the Outer Rim Territories.

Because of its wide spread thousands of years before the Clone Wars, efforts were successfully made to eradicate it. However, Dr. Nuvo Vindi (pictured in the Tweet below), working under the Confederacy of Independent Systems, created and weaponized an airborne version of the virus during the Clone Wars. He planned to use bombs to spread the weapon across the galaxy, working on his plot in a Separatist laboratory hidden in the swamps of Naboo. Eventually, the Royal Naboo Security Forces intercepted a tactical droid returning to the lab, prompting Senator Padmé Amidala and Representative Jar Jar Binks to return to their home planet to investigate. They were captured by Vindi’s battle droids, though they were later rescued by Jedi Generals Obi-Wan Kenobi and Anakin Skywalker and Anakin’s Padawan, Ahsoka Tano. They thwarted Vindi’s plot but, as the facility was being decontaminated, a service droid stole a sample of the virus and detonated one of the remaining devices, trapping Amidala, Tano, Binks, and Captain Rex and his squad in the lab with a few remaining battle droids. As the clock ticks, Kenobi and Skywalker travel to Iego to collect the reeska root, eventually returning to Naboo with the cure just in the nick of time.

#TheCloneWars Rewatch: Bombs and the "Blue Shadow Virus." #ThrowbackThursday https://t.co/ynWwhSdkCN pic.twitter.com/HHNfDzYZTi
— Star Wars (@starwars) November 1, 2018

The Reign of the Empire and Beyond

In Aftermath: Life Debt, Imperial Navy Vice Admiral Perwin Gedde oversaw one of the Empire’s largest, most brutal BW programs. Under his direction, “ancient diseases” were tested on annexed planets’ civilians. After the Empire was defeated on Endor, he escaped and hid out on Vorlag with Slussen Canker, a slaver and crime lord. Gedde was wanted by the New Republic for his war crimes and was eventually tracked down by a team of Imperial hunters led by Norra Wexley following a galaxy-wide manhunt. While Gedde temporarily subdued his hunters with the assistance of Jas Emari, she later betrayed him, leading to Gedde being imprisoned on the Halo as the team returned to Chandrila. Under the orders of Imperial Navy Admiral Rae Sloane, he was poisoned with a mycotoxin by the bounty hunter Mercurial Swift so that he could not provide information about his BW work to the New Republic.

In Star Wars: Commander (a mobile strategy game), it is revealed that the Imperial Military Department of Advanced Weapons Research organized a program called Project Blackwing on Dandoran. The project was tasked with discovering how to create immortality, principally by using Sith alchemy to create a virus that could reanimate the dead. However, this did not go according to plan as there was the accidental creation and release of the Blackwing virus, AKA “the Sickness”, sometime between the Battles of Yavin and Hoth. The virus killed its hosts and turned them into cannibal zombies. While the zombies did move slower than their living hosts had previously, they had much more stamina and strength than before. Worse yet, the virus allowed the zombies to act as one and to learn from others, allowing them to use weapons and pilot starships. The outbreak spread across the secret installation, earning the new Undead Troopers the collective name “Army of the Dead” as they eventually came to be supplemented by Heavy and Scout Undead Troopers. Both the Empire and the Rebel Alliance worked to contain this threat, eventually succeeding, though the rebels did have to contain a second outbreak later on. This virus also appears in Legends work.

Did you know? 13 BBY, the Galactic Empire commissioned Project Blackwing, a secret project to uncover immortality. The project accidentally led to the creation of the Blackwing virus that infected many, including Stormtroopers who became known as Undead Troopers or Death Troopers pic.twitter.com/luXYkHzLXR
— Star Wars Holocron (@sw_holocron) March 25, 2020

Finally, Battlefront: Twilight Company reveals that during the Galactic Civil War, the Empire hosted a BW research facility on Coyerti. The Distillery was the main hub of the BW operation on the planet, making it an important strategic target during the Coyerti campaign. Though there are not many specifics, it is known that the Distillery created, tested, and exported toxin (and even some chemical) weapons. During the Coyerti campaign, the Alliance’s 61st Mobile Infantry (AKA Twilight Company) successfully destroyed the Distillery. However, weapons from the Distillery stockpiled on Nakadia were later used on Twilight Company, claiming many rebel soldiers, including Maediyu after her internal organs liquified.

“These aren’t pesticides. They’ve got military-grade bioweapons, be careful.”
Hazram Namir, Battlefront: Twilight Company

#EmpireatWar | Battle of Coyerti – An elite task force of Rebel Special Forces assault an Imperial Biotoxin Facility on Coyerti, attempting to thwart any and all potential biochemical attacks the Empire could MOC depicting a Rebel raid on an imperial installation. #lego #starwars pic.twitter.com/xuzrJZFsRU
— EmpireLUG (@EmpireLug) January 22, 2020

That wraps up examples in the canon. Check out Star Wars: The Clone Wars S1:E17 and 18 (“Blue Shadow Virus” and “Mystery of a Thousand Moons”) to see Blue Shadow Virus in action. And before you say, “But what about the Kamino saberdart?” Well…more on that at the end.

Biological and Toxin Weapons in Star Wars Legends

As you might have guessed, BW is much more prevalent throughout the much larger Legends side of the franchise. While we can’t possibly cover it all in this post, we will hit some of the highlights. Much like in the canon, it is known that bioweapons have been used across time and space in the galaxy. Ship, the sentient spacecraft who existed in the intergalactic void, recalled the use of the Plague bomb during a war in a distant galaxy. Ship reveals in “Star Wars 38: Riders in the Void” that the bomb destroyed the home world of Ship’s pilot, with the pilot being the only known member of the species to survive the outbreak. The Charon are also known to have used BW frequently.

More recently, the Old Republic era saw the use of many bioweapons, such as Trihexalon in the Star War: Jedi Starfighter game. Trihexalon, AKA hex or dragon’s breath, was a weapon created by the Trade Federation using ore from Mount Merakan. It was said to cause “complete biomass conversion” in targets and it could be either tailored to target a specific individual or used against an entire planet. Once refined, hex was a dust that was inert and stable at very low temperatures. This was kept in vials that allowed the agent to be released when ready, causing a massive energy burst. A palm-sized sample was enough to kill as many as 300 Wookies, though this depended on the blast size generated by the special vial.

Later on, the Empire developed nano-destroyers, engineered viruses designed to destroy a victim’s body a single cell at a time. These were first introduced in Champions of the Force and have since been briefly mentioned in The New Rebellion and The New Jedi Order: Agents of Chaos I: Hero’s Trial. The destroyers were said to bind to the victims’ cells, causing them to have powers such as increased strength and speed or rapid healing. However, they also caused the victims to mutate and turn into mindless beings who fed on others. Though there is mention of a cure developed on Carida, little other information is provided about it.

A Sith scientists named Vul Isen developed a weapon using “viral spores” during the Second Imperial Civil War for use as a force multiplier against rebelling planets. Essentially, these weapons killed every living creature in a target planet’s oceans within a matter of days, rendering the oceans totally uninhabitable and eventually killing off the entire population of the planet. He developed several versions of this weapon before finally creating one potent enough so that one vial had the destructive capacity to end life on an entire planet. He intended this final strain to be used on Utapau, where remnants of the Galactic Alliance maintained a base. Later, Isen was ordered by Darth Wyyrlok to release the spores on Dac to punish the Mon Calamari for aiding the Alliance. Within a few days of doing so, millions of Dac’s inhabitants died, floating on the water’s surface and prompting Rogue Squadron to incorrectly conclude that a new landmass had formed on the planet because of the size of the collection of corpses. Galactic Alliance Admiral Gar Stazi became aware of the plot and successfully organized a massive evacuation of Dac, allowing 20% of the planet’s inhabitants to escape before the rest succumbed to the spores. This attack outraged many across the galaxy and set Jedi Cade Skywalker on a warpath for Isen, whom he called the “Butcher of Dac”.

“Poisons? Toxins? Destroy them from space with bombs!”
“As I have explained before, Darth Azard, we’re not here to make the inhabitants really, really sick. We’re to make certain they all die.”
Vul Isen to Darth Azard in Legacy 49: Extremes, Part 2 (2006)

The last one we’ll touch on today is Vira606, a virus engineered by the Imperial Security Bureau that appeared in the Stars Wars: The Roleplaying Game campaign book, The Far Orbit Project. Basically, the ISB created this virus to be 100% fatal, though it was not contagious. There was, however, a very specific series of serum injections that could keep it at bay for a time, preventing death until another series was needed. The ISB used this to maintain control over enemies and agents, ensuring their loyalty and forcing them to do tasks in order to get a ration of the injections in time.

Final Thoughts and Further Reading/Nerding

In case it isn’t clear, some times the Star Wars universe confuses BW and CW and sometimes the causative agents and mechanisms of these weapons just do not add up. While it is likely that societies in a galaxy where inter-planetary travel and jumps through hyperspace are common have more advanced bioweapons than those in real life, their designs are not always clear to us here in this galaxy. However, it is still interesting to see how these kinds of weapons are represented in popular culture, especially since BW doesn’t quite have a key, iconic representation in film a la Dr. Strangelove.

BW’s presence in pop culture did grow during the Cold War, though it has appeared in written and film media for much longer (check out Albert Robida’s La Guerre au vingtième siècle/The War in the Twentieth Century for a 19th century take on weaponized disease, for example). Some of this mid-20th century fascination seems to have influenced parts of Star Wars’ take on BW as well. For example, Dr. Nuvo Vindi speaks with a distinctly German accent. He also weaponizes a previously eradicated pathogen, paralleling the real-life threat of smallpox weapons following the disease’s eradication and the end of civilian vaccination campaigns. Of course, in recent years, zombie films have been huge in the United States, though the South Koreans definitely do zombie movies best. Iconic outbreak films like Outbreak, Contagion, and I Am Legend also naturally experienced renewed popularity in 2020. Whatever the era or genre, it seems we just can’t get enough of the psychological terror the idea of an infectious disease killing everyone off brings- even in the classic space opera in a galaxy far, far away.

For more BW+space opera fun, this Wookiepedia page offers a great jumping point to learn more about all the uses of BW in Legends materials. This one offers examples of BW use appearing in canon work. If you’re more interested in CW, check out this Wookiepedia listing for weapons that use different chemicals (including lots of assassination weapons). Make sure to check out this post on the Star Wars official site called the Phlegmpire Strikes Back, which discusses other bioweapons and naturally-occurring illnesses in the galaxy. Finally, if you want a video on the Imperial BW Program, check out EckhartsLadder’s video on the program here on YouTube. Now, about that saberdart…

Find someone who looks at you the way Obi-Wan looks at a Kamino saberdart. pic.twitter.com/gxqsyE5CjX
— That’s no moon, it’s a Thomas🌻 🔜 SWCA (@thomasLharper) November 20, 2021

The canon isn’t always clear on if the Kamino saberdart uses a toxin or a poison to kill, but it is more clear in Legends work that these darts can use either type of weapon. Love or hate the Dex’s Diner scene in Episode II, this weapon helped drive the plot along while establishing that CBW are also used for assassinations in this galaxy. Now if only we knew more about disinfo campaigns in the galaxy…

That wraps up this special feature. May the fourth be with you all, Pandora Report readers. We’ll see you on Friday for the weekly newsletter!

Pandora Report 11.4.2016

November 4, 2016November 4, 2016 by spopescu, posted in Pandora Report

Happy Friday! We’ve got some great news – you can now watch our book launch and panel from the Biological Threats in the 21 Century event via YouTube here. Whether you missed out on attending or want a recap, you can get all the biodefense goodies there. UNMC was recently awarded $19.8 million to build an Ebola and advanced infectious disease training center. Their new center will include a training, simulation, and quarantine section, with the hope of training healthcare workers to treat patients with Ebola and other highly infectious diseases. A recent study found that limited access to Ebola diagnostic and supportive pathology assays facilitated the failure of initial 2014 outbreak control efforts, regardless if the setting was a resource-rich or resource-poor location. Shocking news – hand hygiene is one of the biggest issues in norovirus infections.

3rd Annual Summit on Global Food Security and Health
GMU’s Schar School of Policy and Government will be hosting this informational event on Wednesday, November 16th from 10:30am-5:30pm. Speakers include experts from organizations such as the Association of Public Land Grant Universities, Bread for the World, the International Medical Corps and the US Agency for International Development: Academics will discuss their research on Food Security with an eye to improving access, addressing challenges and developing partnerships to improve global food security and related health outcomes. Organized with the support of the Center for Strategic and International Studies; The Farm Journal Foundation; The Global Harvest Initiative, Policy Studies Organization; World Medical & Health Policyjournal; Center for the Study of International Medical Policies and Practices (CSIMPP) in the Schar School of Policy and Government at George MasonUniversity; American Public University; and World Food Policy. The conference is free and open to the public, but registration is required. Contact Professor Bonnie Stabile bstabile@gmu.edu with any questions.

FDA Manipulation of Media
A new report from the Scientific American is drawing attention to the FDA’s arm-twisting of journalists “into relinquishing their reportorial independence”. Their investigators found that NPR and a series of other news outlets had a deal with the FDA- get news announcements early but the FDA would dictate whom their reporters could and couldn’t interview. “This kind of deal offered by the FDA—known as a close-hold embargo—is an increasingly important tool used by scientific and government agencies to control the behavior of the science press. Or so it seems. It is impossible to tell for sure because it is happening almost entirely behind the scenes. We only know about the FDA deal because of a wayward sentence inserted by an editor at the New York Times.” The Scientific American was able to obtain supportive documents via the Freedom of Information Act, which revealed that despite their public demeanor, the FDA denies many reporters access and grows their own group of journalists that will follow their rules. Much of this is held together with the journalistic practice of embargo – a deal between source and journalist that the story won’t be published prior to a specific date/time. This is actually pretty common in the science world, but it can actually create an aura of favoritism and bias. The issue with the FDA situation is far deeper though – aside from getting early access to stories and agreeing not to publish before the agreed date/time (embargo), the other rules stated that journalists could not seek outside comment and in a nutshell, had to give up the ability to do independent reporting. In the end, this kind of control of the media and journalistic favoritism reveals things about both sides of the agreement, but also emphasizes the need for transparency and re-thinking of the embargo system.

BWC 8th Review Conference
The eighth RevCon is fast approaching and if you’re behind as to what’s happened since the last RevCon, check out UNLOG’s (The United Nation’s Office at Geneva) Think Zone and the latest information. You’ll also find some great articles from GMU’s Biodefense faculty in there – like Dr. Koblentz’s article on dual-use and Dr. Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley’s article on gene drive. Better yet, check out the BWC RevCon Series from the International Law and Policy Institute. These three papers discuss a series of issues related to the BWC and RevCon. The first, Divide and Delegate: the Future of the BWC, focuses on the pursuit of BWC aims outside RevCons and the normative strengths and operational weaknesses. LPI2, Keeping Up With the Science, looks to support enhanced science and technology review processes. LPI3, is a joint effort by GMU’s very own Biodefense Director, Gregory Koblentz, and the author of your favorite new book (Biological Threats in the 21st Century), Filippa Lentzos. The third paper, Risks, Trade-Offs & Responsible Science , looks at the security trade-off risks of the increasing volume of labs and scientists working on dangerous pathogens. They note that “the 2016 BWC Review Conference must encourage states to implement stringent national biosafety, biosecurity and dual-use research regulations; task the science advisory group to develop clear, internationally- recognized guidelines governing dual-use research of concern (DURC); establish a working group to revise the CBMs; and encourage states to participate in the CBM mechanism as well as more interactive information exchanges such as peer review and compliance assessment.”

RevCon will take place from November 7-25th in the Palais des Nations and a general agenda is available here. Gabrielle Tarini writes that this RevCon will be a “pivotal opportunity for countries to take action to ensure that the treaty remains a relevant and useful tool for preventing the development, spread, and use of biological weapons. A failure by member states to invest the necessary attention, time, and political capital in the conference could mean decreased interest and weakened multilateral engagement in a treaty that was the first to ban an entire category of weapons of mass destruction.” Moreover, the BWC should have a dedicated process, like that of the CWC, to inform and advise member states, pointing to the need for a great capacity to have expert-led meetings and continuous monitoring. Lastly, Tarini highlights that this RevCon will be an opportunity to strengthen and revise the intersessional process and framework. “The treaty should be restructured, with a stronger steering body and increased time for preparation and multilateral engagement. Adding more meetings, and limiting what gets discussed at each of those meetings, would allow the BWC to begin operating more like an international organization and would provide oversight equivalent to that for other nonproliferation treaties.” Can everyone help verify the BWC? Some are saying open source monitoring may just be that sweet spot.

Increasing Transparency in Biodefense: A 2016 Visit to a German Military Medical Biodefense Facility
Filippa Lentzos is taking us on a journey through German biodefense practices and why transparency is so vital for these programs. Citing Germany as a prime example of countries going above and beyond their voluntary BWC efforts, she delves into the world of Germany’s biodefense activities. She notes the visitors were highly encouraged to review Germany’s most recent CBM submission and briefed on the Institute of Microbiology’s safety and health regulations. “Few restrictions were placed on us other than those related to safety and security. We were free to view rooms, lab equipment and installations. The type and scope of access was to be determined by Institute staff on a case-by-case basis. Any access denials could derive from national security, biosafety and health regulations, data privacy issues, unpublished scientific results or ongoing lab work. If access or certain information was refused, the Institute would explain the particular considerations and o er alternatives.” The Bundeswehr institute focuses on three main CBRN tasks – ensuring protection and an ability of the armed forces to act under CBRN threats, preventing vulnerability to potential CBRN threats and weapons via preventative measures, and limiting the consequences should a CBRN event ever occur. The medical biodefense responsibilities focus more on the ability to rapidly diagnose and identify pathogens, distinguishing natural outbreaks from intentional, and controlling outbreaks. The official noted on their visit that within the institute, there are 65 staff and 18 externally funded fixed-term positions over three departments (bacteria/toxins, viruses/intracellular pathogens, and medical biological reconnaissance and bioforensics). From genome sequencers to electron microscope rooms, check out Filippa’s report for a virtual tour of this amazing biodefense facility.

Assessing the Epidemic Potential of RNA and DNA Viruses
Researchers from the University of Edinburgh are looking at zoonotic viruses and their transmissibility. The Ebola outbreak in 2014 highlighted the needed to better understand what kinds of pathogens, especially zoonotic, were likely to emerge as potential epidemics. Given the vast diversity and high rates of viral evolution, this was no easy task. “Of human transmissible virus, 37 species have so far been restricted to self-limiting outbreaks. These viruses are priorities for surveillance because relatively minor changes in their epidemiologies can potentially lead to major changes in the threat they pose to public health.” Researchers used the basic reproductive number, R0, as a means of answering this question. They looked at hundreds of viral species and then categorized them into 4 levels with epidemic potential in humans. They found that the taxonomic diversity is wide, but bounded and most human infective viruses are closely related to viruses of other mammals. Transmissibility within the human population is a key determinant, as well as the R0 threshold of>1. “We currently have few clues to help us predict which mammalian or avian viruses might pose a threat to humans and, especially, which might be transmissible between humans. One argument in favor of experimental studies of these traits, including controversial gain of function experiments, is that they could help guide molecular surveillance for high-risk virus lineages in nonhuman reservoirs.The first line of defense against emerging viruses is effective surveillance. A better understanding of which kinds of viruses in which circumstances pose the greatest risk to human health would enable evidence-based targeting of surveillance efforts, which would reduce costs and increase probable effectiveness of this endeavor.”

Spikes in C-diff and MDRO’s
Halloween may be over but the rise of the resistant bugs is still going on. A recent study looked at the changing epidemiology of MDRO’s (multi-drug resistant organisms) within a specific healthcare network. While they were able to observe a significant reduction in MRSA, there was a sharp rise in other MDRO’s and C-diff (Clostridium difficile). Examining eight years of data from a Utah-based health network, researchers looked at 22 hospitals clinics to establish trends in C-diff and other MDRO’s. Of the 900,000 patient admissions, 1.4% tested positive for an MDRO and/or C-diff. MRSA was by far the most common MDRO (51% of MDRO infections) but they did see a 32% decrease in MRSA infections over the eight years. “Researchers, however, observed a 222% increase in C difficile and a 322% increase in ESBL-positive bacteria. The data also showed that 70% of all MDROs and C difficile cases originated from an ambulatory setting.” There has also been a significant rise in ESBL’s, which points to a need to refine and revise screening protocols. Overall, this points to the complexity and ever-changing habits of infection prevention and control.

Zika Updates
A recent study is showing that Zika infections have caused reduced fertility and low testosterone in male mice. The ECDC has updated their Zika epidemic rapid risk assessment, noting that “although continuing, vector-borne transmission seems to be slowing down in Central American countries and the Caribbean. The outbreak continues to evolve in Mexico and the southern part of the US, as weather conditions still favour seasonal vector activity. In addition to the Americas, cases have been reported in some Asian countries.” Researchers are working to use the Wolbachia bacteria (which naturally infect several mosquito species) against diseases like Zika and dengue. Overcoming the hurdle of infecting Aedes (a species not naturally infected with Wolbachia), they found that the bacteria was able to survive in the mosquito and then was a passed down through generations…but the best news is that those mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia weren’t able to pass dengue. When the Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes were infected with dengue, the virus couldn’t replicate and spread in the mosquito’s salivary glands (i.e. couldn’t be transmitted). This new technique shows some pretty remarkable abilities to reduce the capabilities of Aedes species to spread diseases like Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever. The CDC has reported, as of November 2nd, 4,128 cases in the U.S. Interestingly 53 people in Minnesota have been found to be infected.

Stories You May Have Missed:

Pandemic Simulations – The Ebola outbreak in 2014/2015 taught us a great many lessons regarding international preparedness and response to infectious disease outbreaks. As a result of this, the World Bank Group and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is starting a new project to conduct the first set of pandemic simulation exercises. “President Jim Yong Kim, Bill Gates and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany will jointly host simulation exercises on pandemic preparedness for the Heads of State and private sector leaders during the next World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2017 and the G-20 Heads of State meeting in July 2017. In preparation for the two major events, the World Bank will collaborate with the technical team from WHO, WEF and the German government to conduct similar exercises for G20 technical staff and and G20 Ministers of Health. Simulation exercises help make a theoretical possibility real, by allowing policymakers to role-play and map out gaps and concrete solutions to those gaps along with their peers.”
New Genetic Mutations in Antibiotic BW Agent– Researchers at Lawerence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) recently found a new genetic mutation in antibiotic-resistant tularemia (Francisella tularensis). Tularemia is a Category A Select Agent, which means it is a prime concern for bioterrorism and public safety. “This perspective allows you to see mutations that are new that we didn’t know about. If you don’t do this type of study, you’re going to miss other mechanisms that cause resistance in the bacteria. So by doing a genome-wide study, it gives you a much more complete picture about what’s going on,” said LLNL biologist and lead author Crystal Jaing. “The study found resistance-conferring mutations in a hypothetical protein, an asparagine synthase, and a sugar transamine/perosamine synthetase in addition to observing known variants.”

Pandora Report 12.11.2015

December 11, 2015December 11, 2015 by spopescu, posted in Pandora Report

If you’re in Boston and enjoying a Chipotle burrito bowl, you may want to put the fork down. As many as 80 cases of norovirus were reported in association with a Boston Chipotle. The norovirus surge occurs just months after the multi-state Chipotle-linked E. coli 026 outbreak. This week we’re discussing superbugs Star Wars style, the decline of infectious disease specialists, Ebola lab stories from the field, and much more. Fun history fact Friday: on December 7, 1941, Pearl Harbor was bombed and on December 10, 1901, the first Nobel Prizes were awarded in Stockholm, Sweden

“Phantom Menace” Superbug?
In a lab far, far away… How could we resist a Star Wars reference to antibiotic resistance? A recent CDC MMWR reported a growing incidence of a particularly concerning antibiotic-resistant organism. Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are continuing to raise concerns due to cases related to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) scopes. Since it’s discovery, global health experts (including the CDC) have been keeping a close eye on CRE transmission and cases. A variant of CRE, called OXA-48-type carbapenemase, was seen in Enterobacteriaceae in Turkey in 2001. 52 isolates of CRE producing OXA-48-like carbapenemases were found in 43 patients in the US from June 2010-August 2015. A study in 2012 first referenced OXA-48-like carbapenemases as the phantom menace. The concerning issue with this particular CRE strain, aside from its known-resistance, is the growing emergence in the US. The difficulty in treatment and extreme care for isolation precautions makes patient care challenging. Interestingly, for those patients who provided a travel history, the majority (66%) had traveled internationally within the year before specimen collection and 55% were actually hospitalized outside the US for at least one night. The US cases involved several clusters and were spread across 19 states. Even more worrying, the laboratory diagnosis is tricky as “most U.S. clinical laboratories that test for CRE organisms wouldn’t identify this particular type of bacteria because it’s not part of standard testing.” The increase in cases and ease of hospital transmission are just a few more reasons why antimicrobial stewardship is so vital. May the force be with you!

Ebola Surveillance & Lab Response Seminar
In case you missed GMU’s seminar on global health security on Monday, 12/7, here’s a recap! Speakers included Dr. Matthew Lim (Senior Policy Advisor for Global Health Security, HHS, fmr Civil-Military Liaison Officer to WHO), Jeanette Coffin (Section Manager, Biosurveillance Division, MRIGlobal), and Phil Davis (Associate Scientist with MRIGlobal). Ms. Coffin and Mr. Davis discussed the operations, supported by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA) Cooperative Biological Engagement Program (CBEP). The mobile lab was launched in December 2014. With only six weeks to train, prepare staff, acquire equipment, deliver, assemble, and much more, it’s a pretty impressive feat that this team pulled off. Ms. Coffin and Mr. Davis discussed how they were able to reduce much of the travel delay and time lag for Ebola testing results. Using equipment to perform RNA extraction and PCR’s, lab technicians were working in tight quarters in Moyamba and Lakka, Sierra Leone. To date, the DTRA-CBEP mobile lab operations tested 7,242 samples for Ebola. While they discussed many of the strengths like flexibility, relationship with vendors, and self-containment, there were also several challenges. Difficulties ranged from inadequate power and internet, to road reliability, food/water safety, haggling, and security issues related to petty theft and missing supply containers. Sustainability was heavily discussed as their expected withdrawal is June 2016 and the team hopes to provide education for ongoing surveillance. Next, Dr. Matthew Lim spoke of the history and impact this outbreak had on global health security. He emphasized “how much this has overturned the paradigm we have about health and security”. Dr. Lim’s discussion was fascinating in that he speaks from experience at both the WHO and HHS, pointing to the role of member states and how WHO funding cutbacks impacted outbreak response. He noted that the Global Health Security Agenda heavily emphasizes partnership of it’s 50 state members, NGO’s, and within the 11 action packages. He explained that global health affairs, in many ways, join foreign policy and health policy, highlighting the need for less siloing and more partnership to help encourage capacity measures. Overall, the standing-room-only seminar touched on both the operational struggles and the overarching role of global health security in both the Ebola outbreak, but also future preparedness efforts.

Daesh and Chem/Bioweapons?
The UK and France have moved to call ISIS, “Daesh”, to remove the association with Islam. Given Daesh’s use of mustard gas, is bioterrorism a stretch? Sandra Maksimovic-Sara of Outbreak News Today discusses their attempts to obtain biological and chemical weapons as a means of using non-conventional weapons to change their modus operandi. While she doesn’t mention tacit knowledge, Maksimovic-Sara notes that “for a biological and chemical terrorist attack, there must be some know-how and background and a professional approach, which is so far away from impatient aggressive Islamic terrorists gathered in Daesh. They want fast track acts and fast track results.” While preparedness efforts must account for a variety of attacks, it’s vital to remember technical limitations. As Dr. Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley noted, tacit knowledge is a significant hurdle for non-state actors to overcome in their quest for bioweapons.

To Quarantine or Not To Quarantine?
The fallout of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak is still ongoing and while many US hospitals feel they are better prepared to handle cases, there are many that experienced negative treatment related to preparedness efforts. There have been several returned travelers from the affected countries that were put into quarantine upon arrival in their home country. While many were involved in patient care, there are several that had no interaction with patients and experienced what many would call, “fearbola“. While quarantine efforts are important for those that may have had patient interaction, risk assessments are vital. Sheri Fink of The New York Times notes that several states “have the legal authority to impose quarantines, often exceeded those guidelines, restricting the movements of returning health workers and others.” Many who were quarantined experienced public harassment, media scrutiny, and some have filed lawsuits for civil rights violations.

France’s Bioterrorism Preparedness
Given the November terrorist attacks in Paris, it’s not surprising that France is looking to ramp up their biodefense efforts. Following the arrival of a third generation vaccine, France has decided to revise its smallpox preparedness and response plans. Last revisited in 2006, the plan is to vaccinate first responders and healthcare professionals that are most likely to identify and care for smallpox cases. Smallpox has long been an organism of concern for bioweapon applications. In coordination with the Secrétariat Général de la Défense et la Security Nationale, (SGDSN- General Secretariat for Defense and National Security) these plans will include the new vaccine, Imvanex, that was developed by the Danish biotech company, Bavarian Nordic, “on behalf of the US under Bioshield”. While the new plan involves “circles” of people, the new transgenic vaccine has vastly decreased the side effects that were commonly associated with first and second generational variola vaccines. In the past, smallpox vaccines were associated with high volumes of side effects, which was a roadblock to previous mass-vaccination efforts as a biodefense strategy. France has several biopreparedness strategies that include a syndromic surveillance program, SurSaUD, a White Plan, and many other efforts to prevent, identify, and respond to health security threats. The updated French plans hope to “frustrate and deter terrorists” as well as respond to concerns of re-emerging infectious diseases. Elisande Nexon presents an overview of France’s biopreparedness efforts and the public health threats they may encounter. While the November attacks in Paris will most likely initiate additional changes to France’s biopreparedness, their existing methods are extensive and reveal national support for biodefense.

Stories You May Have Missed:

Infectious Disease Specialists on the Decline – The National Resident Matching Program (responsible for matching medical students with specialty training programs) announced that of the 335 infectious disease fellowship positions available, only 218 were filled. This is especially concerning as it follows several years of low matching for infectious disease positions. The Infectious Disease Society of America has even begun brainstorming recruiting tactics for what many consider a “thinking specialty” that may not have the glamor or pay that draws students into the field. Speaking from experience as an infection preventionist, the infectious disease physicians I have worked with were by far the most dedicated, intelligent, and passionate people. I think we can all safely agree that the world needs more infectious disease specialists, especially following outbreaks like those of Ebola and Zika virus.
USAMRIID Supported Study Traces Ebola Outbreak – a recent study lead by USAMRIID found that a majority of the Liberian Ebola cases “can be traced back to a form of the virus transmitted from Sierra Leone”. The sequencing of hundreds of isolates also supports the role of high-density neighborhoods as an accelerant for the outbreak. Interestingly, researchers found that the Ebola strain diversified in Liberia prior to being transmitted to cases in Guinea and Mali.
Yamuna River Harbors High Volume of Antibiotic-Resistant Organisms – Researchers found that the Yamuna river in Dehli, India, had an alarmingly high amount of resistant organisms. There were large quantities of several organisms found that showed resistance to many common antibiotics like ampicillin, streptomycin, etc.
MERS Was the Most 2015 Googled Word in Korea – also considered Korea’s “hottest” Twitter issue, MERS became the most searched topic after the first patient was confirmed on May 20th.

Pandora Report 7.11.15

July 13, 2015 by juliadhomstad, posted in Pandora Report

Sorry for the late update here at Pandora Report. We’ve got how the plague turned so deadly, an Ebola update, and of course other stories you may have missed.

Have a great week!

These Two Mutations Turned Not-so-Deadly Bacteria Into the Plague

Researchers at Northwestern University have been investigating how Yersinia pestis—the bacteria that causes bubonic, pneumonic, and septicemic plague—became the infective cause of the Black Death. They discovered two mutations that help to explain the bacteria’s lethality.

Smithsonian.com—“The first mutation gave the bacteria the ability to make a protein called Pla. Without Pla, Y. pestis couldn’t infect the lungs. The second mutation allowed the bacteria to enter deeper into the bodies, say through a bite, to infect blood and the lymphatic system. In other words, first the plague grew deadly, then it found a way to leap more easily from infected fleas or rodents to humans.

Ebola Strain Found on Teen in Liberia Genetically Similar to Viruses in Same Area Months Ago

I’m sure you’ve heard that there were three new cases of Ebola in Liberia—a country that was declared free of the disease on May 9. According to the World Health Organization, samples taken from a teenager who died from Ebola two weeks prior indicate that the disease is genetically similar to strains that infected people in the same area over six months ago—while the outbreak was still ongoing.

US News and World Report—“That finding by genetic sequencing suggests it is unlikely the virus was caught from travel to infected areas of Guinea or Sierra Leone, the group said. “It also makes it unlikely that this has been caused by a new emergence from a natural reservoir, such as a bat or other animal,” it said.”

Stories You May Have Missed

Did you have fun on America’s birthday? I sure did! Coming off that holiday, Andrew Wehrman looks at vaccination during the American Revolution in his new book The Contagion of Liberty.
Do you remember what life was like before vaccines? No? Well, this photo essay can remind you!
Two stories coming out of North Korea: first, did Pyongyang really post pictures of their bioweapons lab? Second, has the government been testing chemical and biological weapons on its citizens?
Then two more stories about UK history. Evidently, chemical weapons testing in the 1950s and 1960s at Porton Down was done on citizens. Additionally, according to declassified documents, the Thatcher government didn’t oppose the development of the Iraqi chemical weapons program.
BARDA has ordered $133 million worth of Imvamune smallpox vaccine from Bavarian Nordic. Tests are being conducted to see if freeze-drying the vaccine effects efficacy. Freeze-dried vaccines could replace existing stocks in the Strategic National Stockpile.
A common treatment for heartburn could help fight TB, according to scientists at Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne in Switzerland.
The google alert for polio pulled up this delightful story from The Hill: Why a toilet is a great birthday present. Lest we forget the advantages of indoor plumbing for disease prevention.

Image Credit: en.wikipedia

Pandora Report 8.31.14

August 31, 2014September 27, 2014 by juliadhomstad, posted in Pandora Report

Fall classes at George Mason have already started and this Labor Day weekend marks the official end of summer. This week, we have stories covering a wide range of topics—an Ebola update (of course), a fascinating article on vaccinia infections acquired through shaving, Haj precautions, and the ISIS “laptop of doom.”

Best wishes for a safe and enjoyable holiday!

Ebola Virus Outbreak Could Hit 20,000 Within Nine Months, Warns WHO

There were many stories this week covering the continuing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Senegal saw its first (imported) case of the virus this week and has banned flights to and from the affected countries while shutting its land border with Guinea and Nigeria saw its first death outside of the capital city of Lagos. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, where Ebola first emerged in 1976, there have been reported cases of a hemorrhagic gastroenteritis similar to Ebola. I read conflicting accounts this week of the “patient zero” for the Ebola outbreak—a young boy or an older traditional healer. There were reports of some U.S. universities screening students from West Africa for Ebola. There was coverage of a Toronto medical isolation unit ready for patients and information about GlaxoSmithKline’s experimental ebola vaccine which would be tested on humans in the next few weeks.

All of this news came among World Health Organization estimates that this West African outbreak could affect 20,000 people over the next nine months and that half a billion dollars would be needed to stop the spread of the disease.

The Wall Street Journal—“The WHO program will likely cost around $490 million and require contributions from national governments, some U.N. and non-governmental agencies, as well as humanitarian organizations, it said.”

First Reported Spread of Vaccinia Virus Through Shaving After Contact Transmission

This week, reports in the August issue of Medical Surveillance Monthly Report from the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center covered vaccinia virus infection—the virus used for smallpox vaccinations—within the U.S. Air Force. The infections in the report occurred in June 2014, and affected four individuals.

Infection Control Today—“Over the past decade, most cases of contact vaccinia (i.e., spread of the virus from a vaccinated person to an unvaccinated person) have been traced to U.S. service members, who comprise the largest segment of the population vaccinated against smallpox. Most involve women or children who live in the same household and/or share a bed with a vaccinee or with a vaccinee’s contact. Of adult female cases, most are described as spouses or intimate partners of vaccinees or secondary contacts. Of adult male cases, most involve some type of recreational activity with physical contact, such as wrestling, grappling, sparring, football, or basketball. Household interactions (e.g., sharing towels or clothing) and “unspecified contact” are also implicated.”

Government to Keep Haj Infection-Free

This week, the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Health announced mandatory measures for Haj and Umrah pilgrims coming from countries with active outbreaks or high rates of infectious diseases. The Health Ministry sent information to embassies outlining health requirements for those seeking pilgrim visas.

Arab News—“‘Although we do not issue Haj visas for pilgrims coming from endemic countries, we will still be monitoring pilgrims coming from other African countries for Ebola symptoms,’ said [Sami] Badawood [Jeddah Health Affairs director.]

He said the ministry would also focus on diseases such as yellow fever, meningitis, seasonal influenza, polio and food poisoning.”

Is the ISIS Laptop of Doom an Operational Threat?

Discovery of a laptop, which has been linked to ISIS, raises new questions about the organization’s plans relating to use of WMD—specifically chemical or biological weapons. Over 35,000 files on the laptop are being examined and has offered new insight into ISIS and their WMD aspirations.

Foreign Policy—“Most troubling is a document that discusses how to weaponize bubonic plague. But turning that knowledge into a working weapon requires particular expertise, and it’s not clear that the Islamic State has it.”

Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Pandora Report 5.9.14

May 9, 2014 by juliadhomstad, posted in Pandora Report

The stories this week cover topics that I am especially interested in: avian flu in Antarctica, wild poliovirus, and the Russia biological weapons program. Have a great weekend!

Avian Influenza Present in Antarctic Penguins

A team of international researchers have discovered a new strain of avian influenza among Adelie penguin populations in Antarctica which has been identified as H11N2. Presence of this strain of influenza was found in eight penguins from a sample size of 301 swabbed penguins and 270 penguins who had had blood drawn. Though the six adult penguins and two chicks only represent 2.6% of the total group, approximately 16% of the samples contained antibodies for H11N2, indicating the virus has likely been present in the population for “some length of time.”

Guardian Liberty Voice—“There has already been a theory posited which might explain how the H11N2 virus was transmitted to the Antarctic region. Due to both the relatively small incidence of the virus in the sample population, and the region from which the sample size was drawn. Hurt has posited that the introduction of the virus into the Antarctic ecosystem was conducted by migratory birds from South America, such as the yellow-billed pintail duck. This conclusion has been supported by the fact that distant similarities between the H11N2 strain of the virus and South American AIVs, primarily from Brazil and Chile, do in fact exist.”

Wild Poliovirus Making a Comeback, WHO says

In a statement made on Monday, the WHO applauded worldwide efforts to eradicate polio while cautioning that the wild poliovirus is spreading and may negate the hard fought eradication efforts. They declared this spread of wild poliovirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern and warned that if the spread remains unchecked “this situation could result in failure to eradicate globally one of the world’s most serious vaccine preventable diseases.” The WHO declared that Pakistan, Cameroon, and Syria pose the greatest risk of wild poliovirus exportation while Afghanistan, Guinea, Ethiopia, Iraq, Israel, Somalia and Nigeria are infected with wild poliovirus but are not exporting it.

National Geographic—“The effort is to break the chains of transmission. The WHO is recommending that countries currently infected with polio ensure that their people who are traveling outside the country get vaccinated. About 72 percent of the people who are infected with the polio virus have no symptoms, but they can still spread the disease. Polio is now in just a few countries. The concern is not to re-infect the countries that have gotten rid of polio.”

Lawmakers Mull Biological Weapons Threat from Russia

Providing an opportunity for me to majorly geek out, the U.S. House of Representatives held a committee hearing this week regarding the biological weapons threat from Russia and beyond. Witnesses included Dr. Christopher Davis, a biomedical weapons expert and former member of the U.K.’s Defense Intelligence Staff; Dr. Amy E. Smithson, a senior fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies; Milton Leitenberg, a senior research scholar at the University of Maryland and author of The Soviet Biological Weapons Program; and Dr. David Franz, former Commander of USAMRIID.

Time—“Leitenberg said it’s almost impossible to evaluate the extent of the Russian biological weapons stockpile because three Russian laboratories remain closed to outside inspection. “We don’t know what they’re doing,” Leitenberg said. ‘They may or may not have an active offensive program—I presume they do. I do not believe that the U.S. government thinks they are producing and stockpiling agent any more, but we don’t know that.’”

A recording of the hearing is available here.

Image Credit: Andrew Mandemaker/ Wikimedia Commons

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this: